January 27th, 2022 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The various weather forecast models are coming closer to a consensus: During Friday night through Saturday night, New England and coastal portions of the mid-Atlantic states are going to experience an historic snowstorm.
For eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island it looks like up to 3 feet of snow are possible with wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Here are the forecast snow totals from three weather forecast models: ECMWF, Canadian, and the high-resolution NAM. The GFS model (not shown) is still wanting to take everything farther offshore (all images courtesy of WeatherBell.com):
Now, we all know that global warming was going to make snow a thing of the past. But when we continued to experience snowstorms, that, too, was blamed on global warming. Global warming theory explains every outcome, apparently.
And the recent cold in the NE U.S…. if it happened to be a warm winter, that would be due to global warming. But unusual cold is also due to global warming, since it apparently causes sinister waviness in the jet stream.
So, beginning Saturday and into Sunday, brace yourselves, because global warming hysteria is coming.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
The St Valentines storm in Texas last February was blamed on global warming as well.
As Dr. Spencer noted, a warmer Arctic is blamed for the dreaded wavy jet stream. Yet Arctic sea ice has only been higher on yesterday’s date once since and including 2005. That was in 2009.
Nor’easters were apparently unknown before 2022. Just an accident that foul weather gear bears that name.
I remember a warm, sunny day in central Maryland in a March back in the late 1990s — even hit 80F and we all thought “Oh boy, spring’s on the way!”
Something was on the way, all right. A week or so later a nor’easter blew through and we had 30″ (0.75m) of snow on the ground.
We call that “winter.”
Yes, I remember that one….it was either right before or right after St. Patrick’s day….I’m going to say right after. And I also recall that a couple days after the storm, it got back up into the 60’s for a few days and the whole lot of it melted away quite rapidly. The building I was working in had a bad roof and I must have spent almost a whole workday lugging a half a dozen buckets back and forth to the toilet to keep the shop from flooding.
Some people around here say “if you don’t like the weather, just wait a day or two, and it will change”!
But that was “precedented”. Whatever happens today is “unprecedented”, to include igauna rain:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/national-weather-service-issues-falling-iguana-alert-in-florida_4240932.html?utm_source=newsnoe&utm_campaign=breaking-2022-01-28-4&utm_medium=email&est=4EKE3J2jrmLI3Icj97Kz9L7B8xutGDEPiEENZg%2B7g3GbJRFcY0r8Dqet3STfE7zSzVE%3D
Dyslexic typing, Iguana.
Get a different iguana typist.
I forgot about the Iguanas. Yes, it’s cold enough for them to fall out of the trees. It will warm back up pretty soon and they will be fine.
What? Sou’westers?
Mae westers
Anything that Greta does not remember is unprecedented.
Thank you John Tillman. You wrote:
“Arctic sea ice has only been higher on yesterday’s date once since and including 2005. That was in 2009.”
And 2009 was during the last solar minimum at the end of SC23 and beginning of SC24. Not a coincidence.
I used the cold events of 2008+ at the last solar minimum to accurately predict the current global cooling period. SC24 is much weaker than SC23 so average temperatures and excursions toward the equator of the polar vortices should be colder and more dangerous.
Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather.
_______________________
More global warming…
SEA FREEZES IN GREECE IN “ONCE IN A LIFETIME PHENOMENON”; WITH FORECASTS OF A CONTINENT-SPANNING ARCTIC BLAST, U.S. NAT-GAS FUTURES POST BIGGEST ONE-DAY GAIN ON RECORD; + AS THE COVID NARRATIVE CRUMBLES…
January 28, 2022 Cap Allon
This is a time to be positive and hopeful, but also ruthless — we mustn’t let those that have failed us so spectacularly dictate what happens next. They blew it.
I made a lot of money this week on my Natural Gas ETF. I sold it going into the weekend, as I’d rather book a nice profit than watch it evaporate should the weather start to warm.
And how exactly do the producers (minority) stop the [tax] consuming (majority)? The last election clearly demonstrated that the dictators rule and will continue to rule…yes the CAGW noise was not working and they knew a cooler weather cycle was coming and the USA was getting out of hand with a leader that actually represented the USA….so we got TV19…clearly demonstrating that the unelected MSM rules…so, how do you prevent the failures from continuing to dictate how we live and work?????
OMG!!!!
It’s worse than we thought!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well, Doc, the globall warmining has been piling up outside my place here in western PA for a while! And those sub-freezing globall warmining temps are getting quite tiresome. 😉
The bridge collapse in Pittsburgh right before Bribem arrived probably also resulted from global warming.
In real science, an hypothesis which explains everything explains nothing.
CACA accounts for flood, drought, fire, cold, warmth, ice, snow, cyclones, tornadoes, stillness and anything else bad which happens. And whatever occurs, it’s our fault.
That bridge has needed replaced for several decades, money appropriated for it and still never done. Actually have people opposing replacing it because it is “historic”. Well, they got no choice now.
Interesting design, that bridge. Here’s a view from below:
https://bridgehunter.com/pa/allegheny/bh96087/
Are you from the ‘burgh? Because I’m from Wheeling, and that “needed replaced” is something I haven’t heard since I lived out that way.
The “Good/Fair/Poor Condition” rating was: Poor.
https://bridgereports.com/1456104
I live in north Butler county. Have worked in the area of that particular bridge in the past. There are several in Pittsburgh which PennDot has told city need extensive work/replacement and the scumbag Democrat assholes have refused to do it. And yet they jump in front of cameras and cry about all the work needs done on bridges in city. They piss away money on bike lanes and “beautifying” downtown and gender equity horseshit. All the while streets and bridges are decrepit.
And, to my knowledge, the bridge is not associated with an interstate nor US highway. Therefore it is a state and local issue -But the media will make it a federal infrastructure problem requiring federal taxpayer $$
Yep, none of Fuax Joe’s bloviating will do a damned thing to fix anything, anywhere, at any time.
I thinkHillary did it, just a bit to soon.
Just a reminder … “Bidinh infrastructure” = 10,000 new CAGW bureaucrats filing reports about the “climate cost” to replace automobile bridges. As a result, no bridges will get rebuilt.
The new Republican congress needs to remove Biden and Harris from office as soon as possible. Biden is a trainwreck and we are the train he’s wrecking.
Worst president Evah! And three more years of this? No, the Republicans are going to have to put a stop to this insanity one way or another. I wonder if Trump has any ideas on this subject?
That makes sense, because according to warmism, warmer air holds more moisture.
Just because ti’s colder where you are, it was warmer somewhere else.
The trick is, to balance that little warmism tidbit with the knowledge that the cold and ice where you are is weather and wherever it was warm enough to add moisture to the atmosphere was globally warmed.
That and the surefire prediction that children won’t know what snow is.
There.
The only place it was warmer is the place where there is no thermometer so they infill.
Warm is cold and cold is warm and never the twain shall meet! 😉
I predict deep attribution to global warming and human pollution and oil companies. The “official” comments will come from Boston College and UM Amherst with a nod from Harvard for good measure.
“UM Amherst”
It happens to be in what I like to refer to as “The People’s Republic of the Connecticut Valley” going from Springfield north up the valley to Greenfield. The area is ultra politically correct in all ways imaginable. They hate every form of energy production except wind and solar- as long as the wind and solar aren’t within many miles of THEIR home. They cry that the state’s net zero by ’50 bill isn’t radical enough- but they now fight most solar “farms” in the region because those “farms” will be built on forest land- and they want all forest land to be locked up to do nothing but sequester carbon to save us from the climate monsters. No wind turbines have been built in the area at all- some in the mountains to the west and east- out of site of course. They think putting solar on roofs and parking lots will be sufficient to produce all the energy the state needs- all electric, all transportation, all heat, all industry. They’re nuts. Oh, and they also hate all tree cutting even on private forest land classified by the state as managed forest under the direction of foresters with heavy over-site by the state. During a timber harvest on state land a few years ago- they chained themselves to the log skidders.
But they do want their furniture to be made out of natural wood, no plastics.
Snow is a social construct. It doesn’t actually exist. And, even if it does, it takes a back seat to precipigendertations.
I was going to say that Global Warming Snow has a different texture than regular snow but your comment takes the absurdity prize !!! 5 stars !!! 🙂
Well of course, because, don’t you know, snow is white!
How much more racist could it possibly get ??
It is just rain that identifies as snow.
I think I will get an adult beverage, some chips and dip, and watch the spectacle live on TV. The predicted snow totals are accumulation by direct fall, the predicted strong winds will create blowing snow drifts, so the results might be alarming to the CAGW “our children won’t know what snow is” crowd. Bring it.
WUWT is now a gossip rag !! Used to focus on scientific discussions … i.e., climate “science” !!
Danley Wolfe, please do not reply to me with your nonsense, you can say the same thing as a stand-alone comment. thank you. Ron
Any suggestions for a scientific discussion you’d like to see?
Where is Griff when we need him?
Yes, we are all for scientific discussions.
We also take great pleasure in ridiculing the climate change alarmists for their outrageous “scientific” claims.
Part of science is distinguishing between what is really science and what is really BS (bad science). In the process, some get ridiculed.
There’s no law that says discussing science can’t be fun. I get a lot of enjoyment reading all the hilarious comments at WUWT. And I learn things in the process.
If you want a scientific discussion, stay away the clowns who blame more snow and less snow, more rain and less rain on global warming
“Stay away from”
Obama officially declared debate ended, as a follow-up to Gore’s unofficial claim.
Actually there will be 2 spectacles to watch. Don’t forget the truckers arriving in Ottawa from all over Canada to protest their need to now be vaccinated. Should be quite a show.
How stupid are our leaders? Canada is one of the biggest trading partners with the United States, and our leadership is stifling this trade because of their desire to impose their will on the people by requiring covid vaccinations.
If trade is cutoff for any length of time between Canada and the U.S., there will be severe economic repercussions for all of us.
Idiocracy and power-hungry come to mind. And sheer stupidity.
The U.S. got hoodwinked into having a failed leader like Biden. What happened to Canada? How can you keep electing that fool?
Wait and see!
I wonder if they will start to advertise: “Bring your children! Last chance for them to see snow!”
Who woulda ever imagined … snowstorms in winter in the temperate zone?
Unbelievable!!! Gotta be due to global warming!
Only 3 feet! The Blizzard of 1978 hit just a week before we were to move to Munich for five years. Dumped 4 feet, with drifts to 15 feet. Of course, that was before global warming—which 3 feet now ‘just proves’/s. Shut Boston down completely for a week. Since we had run the pantry down anticipated the move to Europe, I had to xCty ski with my camping backpack to a grocery store for food supplies. They were only open because the staff had gotten snowed in waiting for regular hour closure.
Ah yes, I remember it well. I was marooned in a Holiday Inn in Benton Harbor, MI, on the shore of Lake Michigan for several days. Huge drifts; nothing moving; no power. The Inn ran low on food, but the liquor supply held up pretty well. It was several days before the state highway along the lakeshore and the interstate were cleared so I could go home — to be faced by about 30 inches of snow in my driveway. It was a fun time!
Heh. I was down the road a bit staying at “Chalet on the Lakes” in ’78 south of St. Joe right on Lk Michigan … the snow was so tightly packed (as it came with wind off the lake) that chains on a car were useless …
That was before Greta was born, so it did not happen.
I remember this. I was at college. It was the first time in the 100+ years of Stevens that they had shut down the campus.
I remember we “borrowed” a few trays from the cafeteria and used the as sleds.
I was on one of the first buses into Boston (from Springfield) 1978.
https://www.yahoo.com/now/blizzard-could-biggest-snowstorm-ever-213245381.html
The Mass Pike was one lane and from Newton the drifts were as high as the Greyhound’s windows. The city used the reflecting pond at the Christian Science complex on Huntington to pile snow. We made a giant Buddha snow sculpture.
i was on an offshore island in down east maine watching from the lee of a barn as waves driven by 100mph winds with a mile or two fetch over open water dismantled a decades old pier until the multi ton cribbing supporting the structure was finally washed away en masse . surreal .
Funny how that “Top 4” list in your link is all in the time line of the horror of global warming. Why, that might make you think the whole global warming schtick was a bunch of hooey or some such.
I remember that snowstorm well. I was a student at West Virginia University, and classes did not shut down. We were told the Morgantown PRT (Personal Rapid Transit) system was the only public transportation working in the East, because it ran on an elevated concrete track, heated by steam pipes running through it, and the three-rail electrical conductors on the side of the track were also heated. Don’t know if it was true or not, but with all that snow it might have been.
Yup. I nearly died in that one. They waited too long to release us from school in Warwick RI. The bus kept getting stuck on hills and we would get out and push it to get it going.
Eventually we could go no further and the bus driver made the tough decision to let us go. I walked about six- miles with crappy shoes and a jacket for winter gear.
By the time I made it to my friend’s house I was shaking uncontrollably and my hair was frozen over. On positive note, they fed me brandy to warm up.
I remember that storm. I was living out in the burbs west of Chitown, and got snowed in. Could NOT find my car and had to wait until the plows came along to dig it out. That little episode of being a suburbanite sent me back into Chitown until 2005, when I moved out to the north burbs and got a blizzard that winter, which blocked my front door with 4 feet of snow. I have photos of that drift. Neighbor had to dig me out, laughing all the while.
And yet this winter, we are having the winterized version of a drought, meaning not a lot of snow, very cold and dry and NWS weather forecasts change by the hour.
lowest pressure ever recorded in Mane
I hope it hits hardest at one of Ed Markey’s homes. But that will just make more work for his servants and grounds keepers.
Sheldon Whitehouse and Pocahontas are deserving recipients, as well.
I pray to Gaia that they get an extra foot of snow to cave in the roof there.
He is the least intelligent member of the Senate (I know, that’s saying something). Perhaps he’ll get snowed in for a week. Has Al Gore been planning a visit to Boston or something?
“A theory that explains everything explains nothing.”
— Karl Popper
Yes, unless, of course, you are two or three …
Nah: surely that would be the Gretest (sic!) theory ever!
That is, of course, a powerful insight. But not Popper’s. Trivia from Wikiquote:
“A theory that explains everything, explains nothing.”
In an address of 13 October 1896, published in Proceedings of the Liverpool Geological Society, Volumes 8-9 (1900), p. 28Thomas Mellard Reade attributed this statement to John Playfair, citing it to his Illustrations of the Huttonian Theory of the Earth (1802); it has not yet been located in the volumes of that work presently available online, and was perhaps a summation or paraphrase, as Reade’s statement reads:
“It was well observed by Playfair, some 90 years ago, that ‘a theory that explains everything explains nothing.’”
Thanks for the correction. That’s what I get for looking for attribution on Google. It does seem that Popper popularized the expression in “The Falsification Principle” where he said a theory that cannot be falsified is not science.
Rick,
I agree! The climate policy debate would have taken a different and more productive course if guided by the insights of Popper (and Thomas Kuhn):
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/01/28/karl-popper-advise-about-climate-science-92631/
Remember to tunnel to the front door like the Finlanders do in the UP.
Now if they would just halt all flights to the Bahamas and Bermuda, there would be some “climate” justice.
-and (say its name!) FLOR-I-DUH!
(Ask AOC about the non-mask room-rates!)
We should not forget that ‘just yesterday’, Jordan Peterson was ridiculed for bringing up the ‘everything’ notion of Climate Change. As this unfolds, let’s watch who invites ridicule.
My expectation is that no Mann will be able to help himself; they will all jump the wagon on which the band plays, with instruments as cacophonous as climate models. Peterson got it right; he really does understand exactly what is going on here, not from understanding climate science but from understanding climate scientists.
So did Mr Trump.
It is a skill we’ve all got, what’s usually called ‘First Impressions’
i.e. We have a ‘6th sense’ of when someone is lying to us, of when they’re not who they say they are or when they’re pontificating on a subject on which they are clueless
In previous times of our history, we’d tell those exactly that then walk away and avoid them for ever more
But doing so requires ‘guts’ and self confidence – NOT the ‘guts’ and self confidence that you find in a whiskey glass. Political Correctness is now the order of the day
Mr Trump called them out, that they were hoaxers and running a scam – based on exactly that = Body Language. He didn’t know any Climate Science and pretending to do so would have ‘let the scammers win‘
Unfortunately for him in the position he was in (also bang over the target) there was no way to escape the flak but even worse: Nobody Came To His Defence
Skeptics and crocodile feeders: Hang Your Heads in Shame
Although, from the incredible foul-up GoJo Brando’ handlers are making of everything, you’ll get another shot at defending the man – don’t mess up next time OK?
Let’s put this Junk Science, Jackanory Story and Energy Crisis Nightmare completely to bed
PS I was surfing Wunderground earlier today – is Romania full of snow, also Jerusalem and somewhere else unusual. the name I forget
Greece ?
https://greekreporter.com/2022/01/24/snow-blizzard-athens-traffic/
https://greekreporter.com/2022/01/26/sea-freezes-greece/
or – Turkey, Iran, Syria, Japan …
https://electroverse.net/snowstorm-co-tx-florida-freezes-nlcs-horror-scenes-syria-cold-turkey/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-last-newsletter-total-posts-from-our-blog_1
More at – https://electroverse.net/category/extreme-weather/
SNOW – MAGEDDON
Say its name …
The Huffington Post would just have to modify the date slightly from 2015 but they’ve already got their alarmist piece written:
Is Climate Change To Blame For The Northeast Snow Storm?
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/climate-change-northeast-snow_n_6549996
but then other “scientists” say this:
“New research indicates that snow cover across the U.S. Northeast is declining as a result of climate change, and that by 2100 as much as 59 percent of the region will not accumulate any snow.”
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abbd00#erlabbd00s5
… settled science as ever.
““New research indicates that snow cover across the U.S. Northeast is declining as a result of climate change, and that by 2100 as much as 59 percent of the region will not accumulate any snow.””
These climate change alarmists are still working under the assumption that temperatures will continue to go higher.
If temperatures don’t go higher, then you can throw their study in the trash can.
Currently, temperatures have cooled by 0.5C since 2016.
Alarmist climate change science is made up of unsubstantiated assumptions and nothing else.
There is only one solution to global warming.
Communism.
Guaranteed……………..
Yes indeed. Those long in the tooth can recognise this having experienced the ghastly tricks the Communists get up to; but the younger generations need to learn and it takes time.
Explaining it is tedious and merely invites a pile of ad Hom. and derogatory comments.
Sadly we are in for a rough time when the consequences start to bite and the population starts to react.
Briefly the UN and it’s acolytes such as the IPCC have been infiltrated over the years by leftwing/marxist covert activists who have successfully converted the science into a political message with the agenda to control the global levers of power through control of energy.
THAT, however, will be rigorously attacked as a Rightwing Conspiracy Theory put out by swivel-eyed guys encouraged by the fossil fuel industry.
I am glad that I am sufficiently long in the tooth not to get involved too much in the ensuing carnage.
And what I don’t understand is: “by leftwing/marxist covert activists.” Why would anyone buy into it and what do they get from it? I lived in Moscow for a year after the coup (working with addictions) and saw the damage. I saw how collectivism warped thinking and injured children and drove the quality of manufactured goods so low they weren’t worth buying…I could go on for HOURS about how inefficient and spirit robbing collectivism is–so who wants that??? Who are these people and do they udnerstand what they are advocating for?
It makes me want to cry. I remember the little girl who was so excited to meet me, an American. She was about 11. Lenna proudly showed off her barbie doll to me. I asked, “Where’s the head?” and she smiled and answered, “I’m letting my best friend play with it–we share the doll.” The girl’s father is a psychologist and her mother was a teacher. This was NOT an anomaly–this is collectivism.
I wonder what she thinks of America today.
Communism has caused a lot of misery in the world. And it’s not done yet.
Most people just want to live their lives with as little interference as possible.
Sadly, communism/authoritarianism wants to direct every aspect of a person’s life, and not for the benefit of the person, but for the benefit of the power elite.
We are in a fight for our personal freedoms. They can be taken away if we are not careful.
Look it’s snow joke….
There’s a global shortage of Viner crystals
LOL – can’t make this up. Not like the activists do.
Global Warming is about to transition from fearsome to hilarious.
Solar panels, wind mills, and EVs. What could go wrong with a storm like this
big solar farm behind my house in central Mass. – I hope the snow is deep and I’ll photograph it and show here- then get out my snowshoes- a great sport
You should have a good chance of a great picture. I live a bit NW of you in SE VT, just in the less blue zone. Was actually hoping for moar!
At any rate it’s going to be hard to tell how much actually fell as the winds will move it all over the place. And then I have to move it someplace else…
Nothing that your tax dollars can’t fix.
A theory that explains everything, explains nothing. (can’t remember who said this, some days I can’t remember what I had for breakfast)
You are not alone, I know your pain.
From Wikiquote:
“A theory that explains everything, explains nothing.”
In an address of 13 October 1896, published in Proceedings of the Liverpool Geological Society, Volumes 8-9 (1900), p. 28Thomas Mellard Reade attributed this statement to John Playfair, citing it to his Illustrations of the Huttonian Theory of the Earth (1802); it has not yet been located in the volumes of that work presently available online, and was perhaps a summation or paraphrase, as Reade’s statement reads:
“It was well observed by Playfair, some 90 years ago, that ‘a theory that explains everything explains nothing.’”
Such stratospheric ozone will invade the eastern US and bring freezing temperatures even across Florida.
Sorry.
Some believe that stratosphere is too thin to rule the weather. However, during the winter season, the troposphere is the tail and the stratosphere is the dog.
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/zu_nh.gif
The distribution of ozone in the lower stratosphere at high latitudes gives the pattern of circulation in the upper troposphere.
I’ve been trying to get an answer to this for awhile now, which I repeat below. No one who purports to know anything about weather forecasting (such as Anthony Watts or Cliff Mass) has so far made any reply. I would really appreciate a factual answer.
This article claims that weather forecast models are now being used to show the strong relationship (attribution) between nasty fossil fuels and extreme weather. This is accomplished by running a weather forecast model multiple over a real weather event, each run using different concentrations of atmospheric CO2.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-weather-forecasts-can-spark-a-new-kind-of-extreme-event-attribution
Are atmospheric CO2 concentrations part of REAL weather forecast models? If so, why?
Since I studied both weather and climate models for ebook Blowing Smoke and several previous guest posts about them here, the answer is weather models do not include CO2 as an input. Climate models do. When Cliff Mass runs his regional Pacific Northwest weather model to look at possible regional ‘climate change’ impacts, what he does is regional weather model runs at slightly increasing start temperatures ‘pretend caused’ by more CO2.
That is my expectation, but not from any direct knowledge. CO2 concentration as a forecast factor doesn’t make sense to my limited understanding.
If CO2 concentration did effect temperature, H2O concentration, atmospheric pressure, or any other weather variable, its effect would already be incorporated into those measurements, which are inputs. Adding CO2 concentration itself, which doesn’t change on weather forecast time scales, would seem to be some kind of duplicate entry.
Frequently, I attempt to correct something in a post I’ve just made, such as a spelling error I didn’t see until it posted. Sometime it works but very often the Edit screen comes up blank. I can’t see what I entered and I can’t enter anything new into the screen. Is there a way to make the edit function work?
Also, sometimes there are buttons for changing text features, such as bold, italics, quote, etc.
Other times, fairly often, such as here and now, all are absent. Why is that?
The current cycle of glaciation started 400 years ago; the last time perihelion occurred before the austral summer solstice.
Boreal summers are getting more sunlight. Under 1w/sq.m more than 400 years ago but heading for 21W/sq.m more in 10,000 years. The flip side is that boreal winters are getting less sunlight. That means more boreal winter latent heat transfer from oceans to land and it will arrive as snow, which will gradually accumulate over the coming millennia.
Real climate change is always occurring and it is not linked to CO2.
Whatever supposed long-term effects the increasing CO2 concentration is having on the global climate, so far snow cover is not one of them.