Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Academics pouring climate doom on Florida real estate prices.
Leading In A World On Fire: Putting Climate Change First
Gautam Mukunda Contributor Leadership Strategy
I Write About Leadership, Innovation, And Policy For Entrepreneurs And Execs.…
If today’s capitalism assumes a stable climate, what will it mean when that goes away? Suddenly falsified hidden assumptions are one of the most common causes of crisis. How bad will this one get and what will that mean for leaders? To find out, I spoke with Spencer and Rebecca Henderson, one of only 25 University Professors at Harvard (Harvard’s highest honor) and the author of Reimagining Capitalism in a World on Fire.
What will climate change do to the economy? Spencer said, “when I look at estimates that Florida will lose two or three or five or 10% of GDP, I laugh, and not happily…No individual in Florida should own their own home as a meaningful form of their own personal savings, because that wealth will go away.” Florida is a low and flat peninsula made of porous limestone. This makes its coasts incredibly vulnerable to flooding. This will, sooner or later, make new home buyers reluctant to take on a 30-year commitment when the insurance companies they depend can leave at any time. Banks, similarly, will be unwilling to make 30-year loans in Florida – making it different than everywhere else in the United States. The consequence will be the collapse of real estate prices in a state whose tax base is primarily driven by property taxes and whose economy depends on a constant inflow of people who purchase property.
…
Read more: https://www.forbes.com/sites/gautammukunda/2021/12/23/leading-in-a-world-on-fire-putting-climate-change-first/
The current rate of sea level rise does not pose a threat to Florida or anywhere else. But what if I’m wrong? What if alarmist predictions come to pass, and there is a sudden surge in sea level?
Academics like Spencer never seem to consider human ingenuity and problem solving.
The $2.8 Billion Plan To Protect Keys From Flooding Now Includes Raising Homes, Floodproofing — But No Buyouts
WLRN 91.3 FM | By Nancy Klingener
Published May 5, 2021 at 6:01 PM EDTAdapting to climate change in the Florida Keys is going to carry big costs. Monroe County has already estimated the bill for raising county roads at $1.8 billion.
But help may be on the way from the federal government for other aspects of that adaptation: elevating homes and floodproofing businesses and infrastructure like hospitals, utilities and fire stations.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ latest recommended plan is meant to help the Keys cope with the increased flooding caused by climate change.
That plan, now estimated at almost $3 billion, includes shoring up six segments of the Overseas Highway and elevating nearly 4,700 homes. That is fewer than in an earlier draft — and the latest recommendation includes no buyouts.
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Read more: https://www.wlrn.org/news/2021-05-05/the-2-8-billion-plan-to-protect-keys-from-flooding-now-includes-raising-homes-floodproofing-but-no-buyouts
If raising thousands of buildings to increase flood resilience seems radical, its actually a very old solution. People have been raising buildings for centuries. Much of Chicago was raised several yards in the 1850s, to improve flood resilience. Seattle, which also had flood problems, had a different approach. Instead of raising buildings, they raised the street level, but left the buildings alone, giving everyone a new basement, also giving Seattle an impressive network of underground passages.
And of course there are many other solutions. Italy’s Venice, instead of abandoning their beautiful city to the sea, they just kept building upwards, creating a unique water city serviced by a network of canals. Or the Netherlands, which has been holding back the sea for centuries with a network of dykes.
We might lose the occasional shifting sand barrier island, but nobody will abandon large chunks of valuable land they care about to rising seas. Whenever flooding becomes intolerable, for whatever reason, the land will simply be filled and built up until it is flood proof.
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Nobody owned their own homes in the Soviet Union either.
BBC just broadcast a snippet of a caller saying to the president ‘Let’s go Brandon’ and he replied ‘I agree’.
Hilarious moment.
Note subtitle is about 3-4 sec delayed, by then JB may have realised what happened and swiftly turned back to camera.
click on to magnify
I doubt Biden has any idea as to what the phrase means. None of his handlers felt the need to tell him.
I called this! When Joe Brandon passed on the Army-Navy game (this is a PR event no rational politician would pass up, particularly the Commander in Chief), speculation was the White House staff cancelled because chants of LEt’s Go Brandon might occur. My speculation was that staff did not fear that Joe would be offended, they feared he might join in!! And here we are.
The problem arises when they socialize the cost— just like Federal Flood Insurance.
If the dimbulbs want to own or build in hurricane prone areas, don’t make me subsidize their stupidity.
as long as you are paying federal taxes,
you don’t get to pick and choose which stupidity you subsidize.
“Italy’s Venice, instead of abandoning their beautiful city to the sea, they just kept building upwards”
It wasn’t a beautiful city back then. But, it was immune from attacks both from land, because the city is surrounded by water and there were no bridges until the 19th Century. and by sea because the city is inside a lagoon that ocean going ships could not penetrate without expert local pilots who knew the channels.
They expanded the city to keep up with their growing population and wealth. But, it was defense that was the first issue.
BTW, The American Republic has endured for 245 years, which makes it the second oldest government in the world today. The Roman Republic lasted for 482 years. The Venetian Republic lasted for 1100 years.
Venice formed as a reaction to the dissolution of the western Roman Empire
For safety as you said
Such an endlessly interesting place to visit
Capitalism depends on a stable climate??
First time I’ve heard of that requirement.
First time I’ve heard that it was an underlying assumption, too.
Betting against rising Real Estate Market prices in coastal areas of Australia has always proved to be a loser. People do not even have to notice that there has been virtually no sea rise in over 150 years around Australia to find this out.
“Suddenly falsified hidden assumptions are one of the most common causes of crisis.“
Oh, the irony! Consider the current power crises in Germany and UK – with California and South Australia in close pursuit. Im tempted to say, from the mouth of babes. Or the intellectually immature in this case.
Happy Xmas to all !
Vuk
Sacramento is another example of a city that has been raised up above flood levels.
That’s a good trick! No wonder it’s one of Harvard’s finest honors… One professorship out of a couple.
Even as one, their brains are a little loose in the professor’s head.
“If today’s capitalism assumes a stable climate….” Ummmmm, it does not so the article is worthless.
Half of Louisiana will wash away before Florida does. Build your house on rock not mud.
“What if alarmist predictions come to pass, and there is a sudden surge in sea level?” — article
What if NOT ONE of those predictions comes to pass? What part of “Florida used to be at least two times as wide as is it now a long time ago” is not comprehensible? The sea level can drop just as easily as rise, maybe more easily. The assumption that what is now “has always been” and “may be worsened” is ridiculous.
Ivy League CEOs nearly destroyed Apple. Steve Jobs had to be brought back to resuscitate it.
Will the rest of our coastal cities face the fate of Venice?
Continually adding floors to buildings as they sank was very expensive, but Venice was once a very wealthy city. At the time, the advantages of its location more than made up for the expense and inconvenience of dealing with the ever rising tide. This continued for the most part for centuries as long as Venice was an economic powerhouse of industry and trade. But by the end of the 19th century, it was the economic and political tides that changed for Venice, and its wealth and influence waned. It became a economic and cultural backwater and did not return to international consciousness again until its rediscovery by the romantics in the 20th century.
Today, Venice survives economically mostly via tourism. Although tourism does bring in enough money to sustain numerous shopkeepers, hotels, restaurants and the arts, it’s nothing compared to the wealth that was created when Venice was a center of international manufacturing, trade and naval power. It’s been centuries since most of its long standing buildings have had floors added to avoid the advancing tides.
So Venice’s biggest problem is not “global warming”. It’s that it is no longer an economically viable city that can afford to address its inevitable sinking. Tourism alone will never generate enough wealth to offset the expense of mitigating the consequences of its geologically vulnerable location as it did centuries ago.
This provides a useful example for where eco-Progressivism is currently pushing the wealthy nations. By dismantling our economy in the name of preventing “climate change”, we will no longer be able to afford to mitigate climate events that are inevitable regardless of our CO2 footprint.
Sure and Pelosi purchased a house in Florida but wait, that was fake news too
Standard Marxist drivel. You will own nothing and you will be happy.
The picture below was labeled 1920 but I suspect it was Miami Beach a few years later.
This vacation spot (a planned destination for the Dixie Highway) was created with streets below King tide a hundred years ago.
Anyone silly enough to build a home (neve mind a sky scraper hotel) on sand gets what he or she deserves. This has nothing to do with Climate Change.
Why is Florida of particular concern?
The location of the city of Cape Town – and the associated densely populated land known as the “Cape Flats” – has been alternatively flooded and then high and dry throughout history. These floods occurred long before the first coal fired power station was ever built – so a logical person should conclude that the burning of fossil fuels by human beings did not influence these events. If sea level is to continue rising once again to the extent that the “flats” are to be inundated with sea water during the present interglacial – then there is not very much that can be done about it.
Hopefully sea level rise is nearly played out during the present relatively mild Holocene era and that the inevitable flooding is postponed to a future interglacial event.
Quaternary Coastlines A5 – Geology of Cape Town – Wikipedia