Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to the authors of a study, if we don’t mend our wicked ways, in 500 years people in India will have to wear space suits when they want to go outside to work the fields.
Our climate projections for 2500 show an Earth that is alien to humans
September 26, 2021 10.19pm AEST
Christopher Lyon Postdoctoral researcher, Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University
Alex Dunhill Research Fellow in Palaeobiology, University of Leeds
Andrew P. Beckerman Professor in Evolutionary Ecology, University of Sheffield
Ariane Burke Professor, Anthropology, Université de Montréal
Bethany Allen PhD Student, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds
Chris Smith NERC-IIASA Collaborative Research Fellow, University of Leeds
Daniel J. Hill Lecturer, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds
Erin Saupe Associate Professor, Palaeobiology, University of Oxford
James McKay Manager, Centre for Doctoral Training, University of Leeds
Julien Riel-Salvatore Professor, Anthropology, Université de Montréal
Lindsay C. Stringer Professor, Environment and Geography, University of York
Rob Marchant Professor of Tropical Ecology, University of York
Tracy Aze Associate Professor, Earth and Environment, University of LeedsThere are many reports based on scientific research that talk about the long-term impacts of climate change — such as rising levels of greenhouse gases, temperatures and sea levels — by the year 2100. The Paris Agreement, for example, requires us to limit warming to under 2.0 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
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While some climate projections do look past 2100, these longer-term projections aren’t being factored into mainstream climate adaptation and environmental decision-making today. This is surprising because people born now will only be in their 70s by 2100. What will the world look like for their children and grandchildren?
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Further, we found heat stress may reach fatal levels for humans in tropical regions which are currently highly populated. Such areas might become uninhabitable. Even under high-mitigation scenarios, we found that sea level keeps rising due to expanding and mixing water in warming oceans.
Although our findings are based on one climate model, they fall within the range of projections from others, and help to reveal the potential magnitude of climate upheaval on longer time scales.
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The Earth of our high-end projections is alien to humans. The choice we face is to urgently reduce emissions, while continuing to adapt to the warming we cannot escape as a result of emissions up to now, or begin to consider life on an Earth very different to this one.
Read more: https://theconversation.com/our-climate-projections-for-2500-show-an-earth-that-is-alien-to-humans-167744
The abstract of the study;
Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100
Christopher Lyon, Erin E. Saupe, Christopher J. Smith, Daniel J. Hill, Andrew P. Beckerman, Lindsay C. Stringer, Robert Marchant, James McKay, Ariane Burke, Paul O’Higgins, Alexander M. Dunhill, Bethany J. Allen, Julien Riel-Salvatore, Tracy Aze
Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth’s climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before 2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100.
Read more: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15871
What can I say – arguably a space suit is advisable for Summer in India in today’s climate.
Their projection for the American Midwest is fun – all tropical and warm. Click the original article to see all nine paintings depicting life in the past, present and future.
Back in the real world, NASA GISS director Gavin Schmidt recently stated climate models are running hot, and admitted they have to figure out why.
… But as climate scientists face this alarming reality, the climate models that help them project the future have grown a little too alarmist. Many of the world’s leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, including the modelmakers themselves, believe are implausibly fast. In advance of the U.N. report, scientists have scrambled to understand what went wrong and how to turn the models, which in other respects are more powerful and trustworthy than their predecessors, into useful guidance for policymakers. “It’s become clear over the last year or so that we can’t avoid this,” says Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. …
Read more: https://www.science.org/news/2021/07/un-climate-panel-confronts-implausibly-hot-forecasts-future-warming
Given climate modellers are struggling to get a timespan of a few decades right, I’m not going to lose any sleep over what some of them think might happen 500 years from now.
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So, what if the earth is warming again? Two questions for the infamous “modelers”:
1. How many fatalities are projected of the 8 billion in a warmer climate with continued use of fossil fuels?
2. How many fatalities are projected of the 8 billion without the fossil fuels that were the reason the world populated from 1 to 8 billion in a period of about 200 years?
If we don’t do something drastic and do it fast to tackle CO2 emissions 8 billion people will die by the end of this century (at the end of a normal average life span). On the other hand if we do everything the green blob tells us to we might be able to speed that up quite a bit when people’s shelter, heat, cooling, food supply, modern infrastructure and security are destroyed by the removal of cheap reliable energy. These people are far too numerous and depressingly innumerate.
Climate models tuned to ( vaguely ) match the 1960-1990 period were extrapolated 500y into the future.
Since we are rigorous scientists we have to point out this is total BS and totally unscientific but what the hell, this is an existential crisis, right? Our model extrapolations prove it.
Alarmists tend to think the trend will go on forever.
When it was cooling in the 1970’s, they thought the cooling would go on forever and the world would enter a new Ice Age, and then it started warming in the 1980’s and now the alarmists think the warming trend will go on forever.
They were wrong about the cooling trend. And the warming trend seems to be turning the other direction now.
Where is the “warm stuff” that you speak of, Tom Abbott?
I have never turned on the furnace at the beginning of September until this year. I am deeply concerned that I missed the plane going to the Warm Stuff. 🙂
“8 billion people will die!!!!”
Earth/Population – 7.674 billion (2019)
79 years to 2100
UN estimate a global average life expectancy of 72.6 years for 2019
See your 8 billion dead, without much sweat. Of course, there will still be 8 billion alive and CO2 will still have nothing to do with it.
Exactly! I’ll be in the former number having lived a wonderful life during the greatest era humans have ever known.
These guys “don’ t know ” about their own ice age scare nonsense 50 years
and can not predict the weather for 5 days
but they claim to know how life will be in 500 years.
It’ s a bit of a toddler who hasn’t even learned to crawl but claims he will win the iron man triathlon next week.
They have no sense really. Even Simon and Garfunkel knew that 2525 was better sounding.
They can’t predict (sorry, “project”) one year into the future, what idiot thinks 400 years is possible?
Their laughable assumption is “all else being equal” as though our civilisation will even exist in 400y.
Simon Zager and Garfunkel Evans?
*In The Year 2525* by Zager and Evans 1969 was covered more than 60 times, including apparently by S & G. 12 weeks No. 1 Billboard Top 100
Zager and Evans.
It seems to me that even the best, most honest modeler falls victim to “compound error”.
5 days ? Luxury, the BoM here cannot even get it right for 2 days ! Last weekend in Queensland (Australia) they were crowing on about impending “sorcher” conditions >30C. LOL, day time max never exceeded 28C and a week later it is COLD and WET !
Ah, do not forget that they are now trying to say that the global warming of CO2 emitted before 1950 caused the cooling trend until 1979. Remember fellow idiots, global warming causes cold periods, Little Ice Ages, and probably even glacial periods. Who would have guessed we had messed up in thermodynamics so egregiously.
“Thermodynamics is hard.”
~Barbie
“Shut up, Barbie.”
~Chatty Cathy
I’m going to get a t-shirt with that printed on it – that, and “How does heat create cold?????”
Why stop at 500 years? Why not extrapolate out to 10 thousand years when earth will be nothing but a smoking cinder in the solar system, while all the rest of the planets will paradises of perfectly cool climate?
SMH
Should this be classed as a new writing genre? Bad, really bad ecotopian fiction?
“Be afraid! Be very Afraid! Repent your ecosins and give us money!”
Wait a minute: what if another planet like Earth was found and all the ecohippies and greenbeaners decide to move there because Earth is “DYING!!!” and when they start sending “HELP US! We’re freezing to death!!” messages, the response is to send them peanut butter and jelly?
I can come up with sillier things than PB&J. OK, cat food instead of PB&J.
This little planet of ours does not have a steady-state atmosphere or geology, or anything else like that. There’s another volcano coming online up in Iceland, and the La Palma volcano is really making a mess over there in the Canary Islands, never mind that winter is just around the corner up here in the Northern Hemisphere.
But these silly people think they can predict what things will be like in 500 years without any real-world references to such things, which DO affect the “climate”?
Goody. I’m going to stick with my “300 years from now, we’re in an ice age and people are leaving the planet in droves” idea.
Really, people, Toba has started quivering, and you may recall that Toba did a lot of damage some time back. Damavand (in Iran) last erupted in 5350BC and is still quivering, has a TWO MILLION YEAR eruption history. Most of the South Pacific is full of islands built by volcanoes, ditto those islands off the eastern coast of Asia (Japan, etc.) and – oh, yeah! Kilimanjaro/Kibo is quivering and releasing gases, too, and Fujiyama is making its neighbors a bit nervous…. and (my point is) those people actually think they’re smarter than the planet and can predict what WILL happen?????
If you hear a loud noise, it’s just me falling off my chair, laughing myself into the hiccups.
Thanks, mods, for that post. It makes my day much brighter! And J Mac, yes, it’s definitely a new genre – maybe the “doom on you” chant from the Dodos in the Ice Age movie inspired these “forecasters” – you know, the one with the mammoth, sabretooth tiger and Sid the Sloth.
Geezo Pete, those people are du…… (walks away, still giggling)
It’s beyond hilarious what passes for a scientific paper these days
It might have some value if printed on soft paper, wound on rolls.
As a scientist, I really cannot understand how so called researchers and scientists can all fall for the CAGW diatribe. I guess they were never taught to “Check you own assumptions”. Always Check Your Assumptions (joshuakennon.com)
I will always think if this when talking to CAGW believers:
It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it. Upton Sinclair It Is Difficult to Get a Man to Understand Something When His Salary Depends Upon His Not Understanding It – Quote Investigator
A true scientist questions everything. I validate all data given me for review with my own calculations just to be sure they did things correctly. Time-consuming, but you can never trust others with your own decisions.
I have concluded that they, in fact, are not scientists, they are simple academics who have to publish, and publish they will, any cr8p will do, just get published.
When a practicing structural engineer (I git good eventually after much practice) I would always perform a quick hand calculation to get a feel for what beam/column size member I should be looking, before feeding data into a computer analysis programme to crunch the numbers. I always told any graduates I was working with to do likewise. That way they would hopefully get a feel for the output from the computer, because if they didn’t get that “feel”, how would they know the output is right-ish!!!
Follow the money, Bob. Always follow the money.
Reductio ad absurdum, or rather extrapolation ad ignorantiam.
Where is a reliable weather forecast for a month? A week? 100 hours?
I prefer to open a window in the morning and look out.
My weather rock is always right
Science fiction
Sciencefictioncorrected it for you, there is no science at all.
Anti-science fantasy.
Why are climate models running way too hot? Could it be, that igoring surface emissivity (or being totally ignorant about it respectively) and overlaps, mainly with clouds, produce a huge error margin? And how smart do you need to be to figure out what is actually obvious? OMG..
https://greenhousedefect.com/the-holy-grail-of-ecs/the-2xco2-forcing-disaster
As usual, Willis beat us all to your observations long ago
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/12/a-modtran-mystery/
Thanks for the link. Though at no point Willis was even close to asking the pivotal questions I am answering.
According to the last (science.org) link–“For now, policymakers and other researchers need to avoid putting too much stock in the unconstrained extreme warming the latest models predict, says Claudia Tebaldi, a climate scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and one of the leaders of CMIP’s climate projections. Getting that message out will be a challenge.” this seems contradictory.
Why don’t models ever predict the end of the Holocene?
We know it will happen as re-glaciation has occurred for 2.5 million years. Chicago will be under a mile of ice again. Yet models never predict when. Strange, since models are so accurate these days that researchers use them in studies.
Chicago will be under ice? Limited thinking!!! The ENTIRE Great Lakes region in all four directions will be under ice, not just one spot on the map. Lake Michigan’s ancient shores go about 45 miles west of its current western shore, never mind that thumb up north called Green Bay. One big gigantic pool of water back then, dug out by glaciers heading south (look up “kettles” and the Ice Age Trail) and melting back. There are enough glacial kames and drumlins north and west of me (and probably SOUTH and EAST, too) to give any rock hunter cheap thrills.
Expand your view. Look up iron concretions and the fossils that they hide. I have some of those, all from the Carboniferous period, found on hikes, and the iron sources start WAY up north in the Mesabi iron range. It all used to be ocean bottom, y’know.
There is nothing that says this little planet of ours cannot go into a prolonged ice age again. It just annoys the “global warming” crowd that any of us think that way.
The false AGW narrative that’s been created, supported, and constantly reminded is all pervasive. The Marxists did a good job of buying and controlling the MSM.
Yes they did. This quote from Maurice Strong is telling:
“Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”
You can read where that quote came from here, skip to the last page. Strong didn’t get to be the Chairman of the World Economic Counsel and a United Nations big wig by having a point of view that was out of step with all the other members. No, those two organizations are infested with Marxists, and they’ve been busy.
Depressing, isn’t it!!!
Yes, very clever, now go and do something useful.
Why not just look at the debt clock? or did they take it down because it could not keep up?
These days the ‘debt clock’ is going so fast that I’m using it as a fan…
I don’t understand the modesty to just go to 2500. Why not 3000? What is keeping them to dream that far ahead?
In 3000 you can hang out with Bender and Fry
You cant predict $h*t. Tell me where a hurricane is going in 4 days….where were you 4ool$ when “scientist” wanted to place coal dust on the ice caps to WARM earth?? That was in the 70’s
Possible, not in India but in New York, kind of space suit worn for getting out of the ISS, that is if the current inter-glacial is over.
Here is a new NASA-Hubble video about climate change on Jupiter
https://youtu.be/7dIfQIDjtOg
Are they pounding on that silly ‘Horrors!!! Red Spot is changing!!!’ nonsense again. What are those sillies going to do if Zeus’s Big Red Spot just disappears?
That is just laughable! Thank you for that !!!
What patent garbage
And a long list of idiots to go with it
Yes but they are useful idiots after all!!!
Don’t the 13 authors know that most of the people in India died of famine in 1974? Or at least those were the projections.
Don’t the13 authors know most of the people in India died of famine in 1973?
Or at least the projections had it so.
It sounds more like these people need to write fiction. Disney could use some new ideas
But comparable stories have been written all along.
Fantasy-based climate models create wilder and wilder fantasies the further out they project. Who knew?
Now let’s see the list of academic promotions and salary increases of these select, distinguished modelers and their no-consequence predictions.
Now let’s see a projection to 2500 of clean water supplies by country.
Will all women be forced to wear a burqa over their helmet or stay home in 2500?
There will be only one sex in 2500, with 63 genders, reproducing parthenogenically. To save resources. For the children.
Will the UK be an underdeveloped country in 2500.
so long time ? 😀
“…in 500 years people in India will have to wear space suits when they want to go outside to work the fields.”
Prove it.
Prove that your climate models can accurately predict climate in 30 years… They haven’t so far!
Can’t imagine growing crops if themperatures are as high a space suits are necessary to go outside. 😀
“Can’t imagine growing crops…”
Telling, isn’t it, that they can’t even see the problem with their scenario?
“…in 500 years people in India will have to wear space suits when they want to go outside to work the fields.”
… Must start to develop and produce space suits for goats and buffaloes, because the poor animals will not stand such high temperatures. A good ivestment, to buy shares of factories of space suits for animals of all sizes and shapes!