The Week That Was: 2021-08-28 (August 28, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities” – Voltaire [H/t Tony Heller]
Number of the Week: – The missing 97%
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW will focus on three additional, significant omissions, holes, in the “Summary for Policymakers” of the Physical Science Basis of Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is used to justify drastic changes in the use of fossil fuels. Given the gravity of such changes, the document should be of the highest scientific standards and demonstrate the scientific integrity of the IPCC.
Specifically, statistician Steve McIntyre, who exposed Mr. Mann’s hockey-stick for having statistical difficulties, illustrates how the IPCC ignores the Southern Hemisphere in the construction of the New Hockey-stick featured in the SPM. Separately, statisticians Ross McKitrick and William Briggs illustrate that, as presented, the new field of attribution analysis has no foundation in theoretical statistics. Thus, after-the-fact statements such as the one by World Weather Attribution that: “At the Ahr River the flood is estimated to be a 500-year event or rarer according to preliminary data” are little more than hot air.
The Number of the Week, the missing 97%, is based on calculations by Physics Professor emeritus Howard Hayden using assertions in earlier IPCC reports. This 97% is critical for life on the planet as we know it because it prevents the land masses from entering a deep freeze at night. Yet it is not discussed in recent IPCC reports except in passing reference deep in the reports.
TWTW will also include recent observations on renewable power generation in the Pacific Northwest and California. Wind power continues as a child on a pogo-stick and solar power slumbers through the California nights.
*******************
Over a number of years, Steve McIntyre has traced the studies called PAGES to a private group called Past Global Changes based in Bern, Switzerland. McIntyre refers to earlier versions of PAGES studies as well when he writes:
“The 30-60N latitude band [latband] gets lots of attention in paleoclimate collections – probably more proxies than the rest of the world combined. The 30-60S latitude band is exactly the same size, but it is little studied. It is the world of the Roaring Forties and Furious Fifties, a world that is almost entirely ocean. The only land is New Zealand, Tasmania and the southern coast of Australia facing Antarctica, the tip of South Africa and the narrow part of South America: southern Chile and Argentina. But 96% or so [of this latitude band] is ocean.
“No Ocean Proxies
Although the 60-30S is almost entirely ocean, PAGES 2019 did not use a single ocean proxy in its data. They used only eight series (out of 19 PAGES 2017). Seven tree ring series: two from New Zealand (both less than 500 years), three from Tasmania (one long, two less than 500 years), two from southern South America (both less than 500 years) and one weird lake sediment from Chile (a “singleton” proxy using pigments in the sediments).
“Only One Long Proxy
Only one proxy in the network has values prior to AD750 and only two proxies have values prior to AD1450. Thus, the only information directly comparing medieval and modern values comes from these two proxies: Mt Read, Tasmania (a series used as long ago as {Mann et al 1998} and {Jones et al 1998} and many times since); and the Laguna Aculeo pigment series – neither of which have shapes remotely similar to the PAGES2K 60-30S latband reconstruction – see below. (The latband reconstruction was calculated from the enormous file at NOAA here).” [Not included in TWTW.]
After presenting the data, much if it cut short and not revealing the hockey-stick pattern, McIntyre brings what could be called IPCC magic.
“The blade of the reconstruction HS [Hockey-stick] goes from -1 sigma in early 20th century to more than 4 sigma in 2000. Yet there is no comparable deviation in any of the underlying proxies. The three South American proxies and the long Mt Read, Tasmania tree ring chronology don’t have anything like a blade; the four short tree ring chronologies (two Tasmania and two New Zealand) have increase sharply in 20th century, but not enough to yield the PAGES 2019 HS. (These tree chronologies have been selected from a much larger candidate population – a screening process that already imparts a serious bias.)
“The only 30-60S proxy with a value in the year 2000 is Mount Read, which has a value of ~1 sigma. Yet the PAGES 2019 30-60S (CPS) reconstruction has a value of over 4 sigma. How did they do that?
“PAGES 2019 provide code for the generation of figures from reconstructions but didn’t archive the code for the generation of the reconstructions. (At least in the links provided in any of the articles.) So, it’s impossible to precisely diagnose what’s going on.
“Although PAGES proclaim the importance of public archiving as a selection criterion, only one of the tree ring chronologies (the long Mount Read chronology) can be firmly associated with ITRDB measurement data archives…”
Then comes the real deficiency of the IPCC:
“But most of all, given that the 60-30S latband is almost entirely (~96%) ocean, it seems bizarre that PAGES 2019 did not use any ocean core proxies, especially since there are physical formulas for estimating SST from alkenone or Mg/Ca measurements. Any conversion of tree ring widths to temperature in deg C is the result of ad hoc statistical fitting, not a universal formula. Alkenone values have been measured all over the modern ocean and nicely fit known ocean temperatures. In addition, alkenone values for ocean cores going back to deeper time (even to the Miocene [23 million years ago]) give a consistent and reproducible narrative. So, there’s a lot to like about them as a candidate for a “good” proxy.
“While there are numerous high-resolution (10-year resolution) alkenone and Mg/Ca measurements in the North Atlantic with values through the last millennium and up to the present, to my knowledge, there were not any such series as of PAGES 2013 or PAGES 2017. (In my opinion, IPCC AR5 ought to have noted this and suggested that this deficiency be remedied.)” [Boldface in original]
The so-called “peer reviewed” data, on which the IPCC claims it relies, is lacking. After presenting ocean core data that shows a cooling, which may have been dropped in the latest version of PAGES or truncated with the latest data removed, McIntyre concludes:
“Conclusion
Given that the 60-30S latband is almost entirely ocean, it seems logical that IPCC and PAGES2K should use data from ocean proxies to estimate past temperature in this latitude band. But this isn’t what they’ve done. Instead, they’ve purported to estimate past temperature from a few scattered tree ring chronologies, only one of which reaches earlier than AD1850; and an idiosyncratic singleton pigment series. Ironically, the only 30-60S proxy series in PAGES 2019 that reaches back into the first millennium – the Mount Read, Tasmania tree ring series – was used by Mann et al 1998-1999, Jones et al 1998 and numerous other supposedly “independent” multiproxy studies. Neither of the two series reaching back to the medieval period permit the conclusion that modern period is warmer than medieval period. Caveat: I’m not saying that it isn’t; only that this data doesn’t show it, let alone support the big-bladed HS cited by IPCC. High-resolution alkenone measurements from ocean cores offshore Chile show a consistent decrease in ocean temperatures over the past two millennia that is neither reported nor discussed by IPCC (or PAGES 2019). [Boldface is Italics in original.]
“To be clear, some of the technical articles on 30-60S ocean core proxies by specialist authors are truly excellent and far more magisterial than the IPCC mustered, in particular, several articles on offshore Chile. Here are a few:
“Mohtadi et al, 2007. Cooling of the southern high latitudes during the Medieval Period
and its effect on ENSO link
“Killian and Lamy 2012. A review of Glacial and Holocene paleoclimate records from southernmost Patagonia (49-55degS) link
“Collins et al 2019. Centennial‐Scale SE Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability Over the Past 2,300 Years link” [links given in original]
With such omissions and deficiencies, the IPCC AR6-SPM lacks scientific standards to be a credible source of scientific knowledge. The IPCC does not meet Richard Feynman’s standards for employing the scientific method and for scientific integrity. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – IPCC and Defending the Orthodoxy.
*******************
False Certainty: An article in the July 10 TWTW asked: “How Scientists Are So Confident They Know What’s Causing This Insane Weather.” The article stated:
“According to legendary Princeton geoscientist Michael Oppenheimer, scientists are no longer guessing when it comes to tying extreme events like this to climate change, because a whole new field now exists that aims to tie a nice, neat bow around these very questions.
“’There is now a well-developed science of ‘event attribution’ which deals with uncertainty,’ Oppenheimer told The Daily Beast. (His own research over the years has focused on what the specific hazards of climate change will be, not necessarily event attribution.)
“Here’s Oppenheimer’s explanation of how event attribution scientists do their jobs: They use Fractional Attribution of Risk (FAR), which he said is “the fraction of the intensity of an event (like a heatwave) that can be attributed to human-made greenhouse gases.” For example, event attribution scientists calculated the FAR on 2017’s Hurricane Harvey—after the fact—and it had, Oppenheimer explained, about two times what would have been the case without the greenhouse gases at 2017 levels. That gave Harvey a FAR score of 0.5.”
The process is disturbing because there appears to be a lack of theoretical basis for assigning a statistical probability to an event after it occurred, without being able to predict such an event occurring. Earlier the Global Warming Policy Foundation published a report by statistician William Briggs titled: “The Climate Blame Game: Are we really causing extreme weather?” In the summary Briggs writes:
“Claims made in so-called climate change event attribution studies suffer from gross over-certainties and cannot be trusted. The techniques used in these studies are in their infancy and do not warrant the trust put into them. These studies assume either (a) perfect forecasting models, or (b) known, uncertainty-free causes of climate change. Neither condition holds. Because of this, attribution claims are far too certain or are wrong. They should not be used in any policy decisions.”
In an April 14 post on his blog, Briggs writes:
“In order to attribute individual weather events to humankind, scientists need a perfect model of the climate. They do not have this. Therefore, claims that we are responsible for any particular weather event are at best overconfident, if not plain wrong.”
“Attribution studies assume that the weather has been getting worse, yet empirical observations do not support this generic assumption.”
Econometrician Ross McKitrick, who with Steve McIntyre, exposed Mr. Mann’s hockey-stick as based on a shoddy understanding of statistics, has addressed criticism of the event attribution to the theoretical level exposing that the process, called “optimal fingerprinting,” lacks a sound theoretical basis. He traces “optimal fingerprinting” to a paper by Myles Allen and Simon Tett, which was published in Climate Dynamics in 1999. On August 10, 2021, the same journal published McKitrick’s criticism “Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting: a comment.” The abstract states:
Allen and Tett (1999, herein AT99) introduced a Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression methodology for decomposing patterns of climate change for attribution purposes and proposed the “Residual Consistency Test” (RCT) to check the GLS specification. Their methodology has been widely used and highly influential ever since, in part because subsequent authors have relied upon their claim that their GLS model satisfies the conditions of the Gauss-Markov (GM) Theorem, thereby yielding unbiased and efficient estimators. But AT99 stated the GM Theorem incorrectly, omitting a critical condition altogether, their GLS method cannot satisfy the GM conditions, and their variance estimator is inconsistent by construction. Additionally, they did not formally state the null hypothesis of the RCT nor identify which of the GM conditions it tests, nor did they prove its distribution and critical values, rendering it uninformative as a specification test. The continuing influence of AT99 two decades later means these issues should be corrected. I identify 6 conditions needing to be shown for the AT99 method to be valid.
The Gauss-Markov (GM) theorem was developed over centuries starting with mathematician Carl Friedrich Gauss (1777-1855) and by mathematician Andrey Markov (1856-1922). It is critical to the use of Generalized (Ordinary) Least Squares (GLS) regression analysis producing meaningful results. Among other issues, it requires that errors in the analysis are uncorrelated, have equal variances and an expected value of zero. Failure to meet the requirements renders the work meaningless. [This form of statistics is separate from Bayesian statistics.]
Writing in Judith Curry’s “Climate Etc.” McKitrick addresses the issues he raises in a less mathematical form than in the paper. Also, he gave Allen and Tett the opportunity to comment. McKitrick guesses at potential objections:
“1. Yes but look at all the papers over the years that have successfully applied the AT99 method and detected a role for GHGs. Answer: the fact that a flawed methodology is used hundreds of times does not make the methodology reliable, it just means a lot of flawed results have been published. And the failure to spot the problems means that the people working in the signal detection/Optimal Fingerprinting literature aren’t well-trained in GLS methods. People have assumed, falsely, that the AT99 method yields “BLUE” – i.e., unbiased, and efficient – estimates. Maybe some of the past results were correct. The problem is that the basis on which people said so is invalid, so no one knows.
“2. Yes but people have used other methods that also detect a causal role for greenhouse gases. Answer: I know. But in past IPCC reports they have acknowledged those methods are weaker as regards proving causality, and they rely even more explicitly on the assumption that climate models are perfect. And the methods based on time series analysis have not adequately grappled with the problem of mismatched integration orders between forcings and observed temperatures. I have some new coauthored work on this in process.
“3. Yes, but this is just theoretical nitpicking, and I haven’t proven the previously published results are false. Answer: What I have proven is that the basis for confidence in them is non-existent. AT99 correctly highlighted the importance of the GM theorem but messed up its application. In other work (which will appear in due course) I have found that common signal detection results, even in recent data sets, don’t survive remedying the failures of the GM conditions. If anyone thinks my arguments are mere nitpicking and believes the AT99 method is fundamentally sound, I have listed the six conditions needing to be proven to support such a claim. Good luck. [Boldface added]
Until McKitrick’s six conditions are addressed, there is little reason to assume that studies based on Event Attribution or Optimal Fingerprinting are meaningful. This field in climate studies shows, again, that climate researchers and their journals need people who understand the foundations and limits of statistical techniques. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
*******************
Pogo-stick Power: For almost two months, TWTW followed the changes in wind power generation as reported by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), which includes the Columbia River Gorge “where the wind always blows.” The total nameplate generation is 27,879 MW of which 79.5% is hydro and 10.5% (2930 MW) is wind. [The balance is from other sources such as nuclear, gas, biomass, etc.]
The failures in wind generation are glaring. On August 22, it peaked at about 2700 MW then fell to zero by noon August 23, bouncing up to 500 MW on the early afternoon of August 24 before falling to near zero early morning on August 25. By midnight it climbed to around 2000 MW where it bounced around until late morning on August 27 before falling to near zero by midnight. It has stayed near zero past midnight.
The rapid changes in wind power force rapid changes in hydropower to balance the load, balancing generation with demand. Hydropower often varies rapidly from about 4000 MW to about 10,000 MW. Only specifically designed hydro turbines can take the stress of rapid change.
Wind power in South Australia in August (winter) is as erratic. Why anyone thinks such erratic power is suitable for modern civilization is beyond belief. There is no utility scale backup in operation and estimates of costs are not available. See links under Energy Issues—Australia and Energy Issues—US.
*******************
California Slumbers: The California Systems Operator maintains daily graphs on electricity supply and demand and for specific types of renewables. Over the past few days, natural gas generation varied from 18,000 MW down to 9,000 MW, imports varied between 10,000 MW to 5,000 MW and solar varied between zero and 12,000 MW to meet a total demand of 26,000 to 28,000 MW. Over the time period observed, without major storms, solar power is more consistent than wind power, because it fails every evening.
New York used to be called the city that never sleeps. If it follows California in solar power, it and Los Angeles may be called the cities that always slumber. See link under Energy Issues—US.
*******************
Next TWTW: The above emphasized significant deficiencies in IPCC AR6, particularly in the Summary for Policymakers. These include the use of data, the origin of which is not known and certainly not peer-reviewed, and the false confidence expressed in Event Attribution or Optimal Fingerprinting.
The next TWTW will continue on similar deficiencies such as significant misinterpretation of the greenhouse effect by the IPCC and whatever Steve McIntyre may post in his review of the New Hockey-stick. Of significant interest is what the IPCC claims of ice core borings in the Antarctic, which shows that variations in carbon dioxide followed variations in temperatures for hundreds of thousands of years. This is contrary to the IPCC’s New Hockey-stick.
*******************
14th ICCC: The 14th International Conference on Climate Change presented by The Heartland Institute will be October 15 to 17, 2021, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. See https://climateconference.heartland.org/
****************
Number of the Week: – The missing 97%: Using formula found in the Third Assessment Report, “Simplified expression of Radiative forcing for the Trace gas carbon dioxide,” Howard Hayden calculates the radiative forcing from a doubling of CO2 is 3.7 Watts/meter squared (W/m2). Yet, the IPCC calls this tiny amount a forcing.
The “Heat flow chart” in the Fifth Assessment Report gives the thermal outgoing radiation at the surface of 398 W/m2 and the thermal outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere at 239 W/m2. The latter figure is close to what is being found by satellites in the ongoing CERES experiment.
The difference between the thermal radiation at the surface and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere is 159 W/m2, which keeps the average temperature of the earth about 34°C warmer than it would be without greenhouse gases. This is particularly important because as explained by John Tyndall following his experiments starting in 1859, greenhouse gases prevent the land masses from going into a deep freeze each night, killing all growing plants.
If we add the 3.7 W/m2 (forcing) to 159 W/m2 (necessary for life) and divide the 3.7 W/m2 (forcing) by the total, we get that the forcing is only equal to about 2.3% of the greenhouse effect with a doubling of CO2. Forcing is a catchy name for 2.3% of something, but there is no catchy name for the other 97.7% of the greenhouse effect which is so necessary for life. Suggestions are welcome. Email Howard Hayden at corkhayden@comcast.net.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Where The Sun Don’t Shine: Climate Alarmists’ Thinking
By I & I Editorial Board, Aug 20, 2021
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
The IPCC’s attribution methodology is fundamentally flawed
By Ross McKitrick, Climate Etc., Aug 18, 2021
Link to paper: Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting: a comment
By Ross McKitrick, Climate Dynamics, Aug 10, 2021
Propaganda Masquerading As Climate Science
By William Briggs, His Blog, Aug 25, 2021
Link to report: The Climate Blame Game: Are We Really Causing Extreme Weather?
By William M Briggs, GWPF, 2021
April 14 post: https://wmbriggs.com/post/35291/
Boris Johnson’s wind delusion poses national security risk
By Staff, GWPF, Aug 8, 2021
Link to paper: The Workable Alternative to Net Zero
By Capell Aris and John Constable, GWPF, 2021
The settled science of fingerprinting
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 25, 2021
[SEPP Comment: On McKitrick’s paper, above]
The West Is a Fire Plain. Get Over It.
By Randal O’Toole, Liberty and Ecology, Aug 23, 2021 [H/t Jane Stroup]
Unsettling the apple cart VI: Koonin on apocalypses that ain’t
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 25, 2021
“Continuing University of Guelph professor Ross McKitrick’s look at Steven E. Koonin’s landmark book Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What it Doesn’t, and Why it Matters.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy – IPCC
PAGES2019: 30-60S
By Stephen McIntyre, Climate Audit, Aug 26, 2021
Critical Solar Factors Ignored…IPCC AR6 Covers Up Scientific Flaws In Climate Models
By Prof. Antero Ollila, No Tricks Zone, Aug 22, 2021
Thoughts On The AR6 Summary for Policymakers
Guest Essay by Ian Cunningham, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 27, 2021
IPCC AR6: Flooding, unspun edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 25, 2021
Defending the Orthodoxy
IPCC, AR6, 2021: Summary for Policymakers
In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
By Masson-Delmotte, V., P, et al. Cambridge University Press. In Press.
Link to Technical Support Document
Greenhouse gas concentrations, global sea levels hit record highs in 2020: NOAA
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Aug 25, 2021
Link to: State of the Climate in 2020
By J. Blunden and T. Boyer, Eds. , NOAA, American Meteorological Society, 2021
The $3.5 trillion budget bill could transform the US power sector—and slash climate pollution
But the key measure, the Clean Electricity Payment Program, will face tough tests in the real world—if it passes at all.
By James Temple, MIT technology Review, Aug 23, 2021
“If it works as hoped, the legislation would ensure that the power sector generates 80% of its electricity from sources like wind, solar, and nuclear plants by 2030, cutting more than a billion tons of annual greenhouse-gas emissions.” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: If it does not work, it will squander hundreds of billions in the pursuit of fantasy. A proof of concept is needed but not provided.]
US and China tipped to get tougher on climate change when John Kerry visits in September
Second visit to China this year by US special climate envoy comes at a time of extreme tension in bilateral relations
Impact of the visit is expected to extend beyond global warming battle, says climate observer
By Echo Xie, South China Morning Post, Aug 27, 2021
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Climate change is accelerating, according to comprehensive study
Press Release by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Aug 26, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire}
Link to paper: Future high-resolution El Niño/Southern Oscillation dynamics
By Christian Wengel, Nature Climate Change, Aug 26, 2021
From the abstract: “Here, using a mesoscale-resolving global climate model with an improved representation of tropical climate, we show that a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 causes a robust weakening of future simulated ENSO sea surface temperature variability.” [Boldface added.]
[SEPP Comment: ENSO sea surface temperature variability is part of natural climate change. According to the paper, human-caused climate change will reduce natural climate change?]
Climate change increasing chances for deadly flooding in western Europe: research
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Aug 24, 2021
Link to study: Heavy rainfall which led to severe flooding in Western Europe made more likely by climate change
By Staff, World Weather Attribution, Aug 23, 2021
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Don’t buy the latest climate-change alarmism
By Bjorn Lomborg, New York Post, Aug 9, 2021
At The Top Of The Hockey Stick
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 25, 2021
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2021/08/at-the-top-of-the-hockey-stick-2/
After Paris!
Vijay Jayaraj: India’s energy priorities are a major roadblock for Net Zero and COP26
By Vijay Jayaraj, India, Via GWPF, Aug 27, 2021
“Most likely, COP26 will be another climate summit where empty promises on CO2 emission reduction and climate funds will be proposed in principle but will never be adopted or honored by the participating countries. India, especially, will be steadfast in guarding its rights to access affordable and abundant fossil fuel sources that play a quintessential part in running the country’s economic engine.”
Nuclear Power Not Welcome at COP26
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 24, 2021
“Update: from Jennifer Morgan of Greenpeace International:
“’Big polluting corporations have been banned from public buildings during the COP26 conference in Scotland this November.”
“Maybe everyone is conflicted and polluting, meaning that COP26 should be called off.”
Sign the Petition to Serve Vegan Food at COP26
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 25, 2021
Link to petition: Demand World Leaders Support A Plant-Based Diet To Help Save Our Planet
By Staff, Heura Foods, Via Change.org, no date
Change in US Administrations
Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Is Solyndra on Steroids
By Larry Behrens, Real Clear Energy, Aug 26, 2021
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Global electric emissions outpace pre-pandemic levels: research
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Aug 25, 2021
“President Biden has called for the U.S. to achieve an emissions-free power sector by the year 2035.”
India’s Energy Policies and the Paris Agreement Commitments: Economic Growth and Environmental Constraints
By Tilak K. Doshi & C. S. Krishnadev, Real Clear Energy, Aug 25, 2021
“In a stirring speech at the plenary session of the UN Conference on Human Environment in Stockholm in 1972, India’s prime minister Indira Gandhi famously said that ‘poverty is the worst form of pollution.’ It would seem that India’s policymakers would be remiss if their ambitions to help their citizens achieve higher standards of living were to be sacrificed for alarmist arguments of an alleged ‘climate crisis.’”
Emerging oil nations reject climate curbs on exploration, pursue rapid development
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 25, 2021
China To Build 43 New Coal-Fired Power Plants
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 24, 2021
“The report reckons that these new coal plants and blast furnaces will add 150 million tonnes to China’s CO2 emissions. This is roughly half the UK’s total emissions.”
Seeking a Common Ground
Why You Need to Check Your Residual Plots for Regression Analysis: Or, To Err is Human, To Err Randomly is Statistically Divine
Minitab Blog Editor, Minitab, Apr 5, 2012
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Allister Heath: Net Zero and wokery is bringing down the West
By Allister Heath, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Aug 26, 2021
“The next big change is that the West is no longer putting economic growth first, while the emerging empires are still desperate to get rich. America and Europe’s embrace of net zero is largely driven by altruism: its proponents believe that poorer countries will suffer greater harm from climate change than wealthier nations. Yet many of these same nations are planning to make the most of the West’s green turn to reinforce their own rise.”
Wildfire smoke leads to worst air quality on record in Nevada counties
By Celine Castronuovo, The Hill, Aug 24, 2021
[SEPP Comment: “Let it burn” policies have a down-side.]
Measurement Issues — Surface
The Greatest Scientific Fraud Of All Time — Part XXVIII
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Aug 26, 2021
“Reality is that the data alterations are no secret, and that NOAA and NASA acknowledge that they do it.
“The problem is not that the alterations are a secret, but that they are opaque…”
Adjusting To Warm, NASA Data Alterations Change Cooling To Warming In Ireland, Greece
By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks zone, Aug 24, 2021
“Today we look at the NASA temperature data from Ireland and compare the GHCN Version unadjusted to the plots of the GHCN Version 4 adjusted and homogenized.”
Extreme Temperatures In England
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 27, 2021
“As we would expect, the number of warm days has increased, and the number of cold ones declined.
“When we add the two together, we find that if anything the trend has declined since 1900. The most extreme year was, by the way, 1947, with 1919 in second place:
“Somehow, I doubt whether the Met Office will tell you this!”
Changing Seas
Great Barrier Reef Sea Surface Temperature: No Change In 150 Years
By David Mason-Jones, WUWT, Aug 26, 2021
The warming cooling of death
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 25, 2021
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Here’s Why Climate Alarmists Are Ignoring All-Time Record Crop Production in India
By Vijay Jayaraj, The Western Journal, August 21, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Mainstream Media Ignores Good News, Cries “Wolf” Over Climate Change
By William Balgord, Townhall, Aug 24, 2021
CNN Promotes Fears Over Facts on Climate Change and Hurricanes
By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Realism, Aug 23, 2021
How the U.S. Could Slash Climate Pollution by 2030
Democrats will soon reveal how the Biden administration’s plans could cut U.S. climate pollution in half this decade. Is that goal even possible?
By Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic, Aug 24, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Filed under Science? Typical photo of billowing “climate pollution” (water vapor) darkening the skies.]
Proof by happenstance
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 25, 2021
Populations in high-risk climate areas grow: Redfin
By Lexi Lonas, The Hill, Aug 25, 2021
Oh that’s original
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 25, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
CBS News: It is not Biden’s fault –It’s Climate Change!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 21, 2021
“First Time On Record”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 23, 2021
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2021/08/first-time-on-record-2/
“CNN says that rain fell in the center of the Greenland ice sheet for the first time ever and a few hours of weather proves climate change.”
Madagascan “Climate Change Famine”–BBC Fake News
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 26, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Warming ate my Afghan mission
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 25, 2021
“…when it comes to climate change, you don’t need facts or logic. You just find something bad and blame it on climate change and if anyone argues back you insult them brutally. Thus former Canadian environment minister Catherine McKenna recently tweeted ‘climate deniers, anti-vaxxers and misogynists all hang out together. Quite the club.’ McKenna then doubled down with ‘The best way to counter misogyny in politics (linked to climate denial so well in places like National Post columns) is to get more women elected. That is 100% my plan post-politics.’) And abracadabra, you’re a climate scientist and a political scientist in one fell swoop.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Express Readers Rebel Against Its Green Agenda
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 20, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Getting Kids’ Climate Misery Just Right
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Aug 26, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Greta of Arc
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 25, 2021
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Climate change challenge: Scientists’ terminology is confounding the public
Press Release by University of Southern California, Phys.org, Aug 26, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Public understanding of climate change terminology
By Wändi Bruine de Bruin, et al. Climate Change, Aug 12, 2021
“Researchers say a follow-up survey would be needed to examine how often misunderstandings occur or who is most likely to experience them.”
[SEPP Comment: How many academic departments of climate change communications are needed?]
Questioning European Green
Boris, here’s why net-zero emissions by 2050 just aren’t worth it
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Aug 26, 2021
Zero emissions in Britain
Commentary by Alexander Tomský, The Reference Frame, Aug 20, 2021
£170 Million To Be Wasted On “Greener Homes”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 23, 2021
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Powering Down the Developing World
By Joel Kotkin & Hugo Kruger, Real Clear energy, Aug 23, 2021
Green Jobs
Bruno Prior: Employment for economists
By Bruno Prior, GWPF, Aug 21, 2021
“Justifying make-work investment and jobs is employment for economists. We’d be better off without.”
Creating Green Jobs, At A Cost Of £198,000 Each!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 22, 2021
Funding Issues
Narrow House budget vote tees up billions in efficiency investments, but advocates want more
By Robert Walton, Utility Dive, Aug 25, 2021
Litigation Issues
Minnesota Appeals Court Holds Natural Gas Power Plant More Environmentally-Friendly Than Solar / Wind
By Joseph Morris, The Heartland Institute, Aug 24, 2021
Link to decision filed Aug 23, 2021, against: Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy,
Union of Concerned Scientists, Sierra Club, Honor the Earth, and amicus from Friends of the Climate
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Australian government needs coal subsidies to save grid from renewables subsidies
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 27, 2021
The Hill: Forcing Renewable Operators to Pay for Network Upgrades is Impeding the Green Energy Revolution
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 21, 2021
Link to report: Disconnected: The Need for a New Generator Interconnection Policy
By Jay Caspary et al, for Americans for a Clean Energy Grid, January 2021
Energy Issues – Non-US
UK Relying On Europe For A Fifth Of Its Power
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 22, 2021
“Our thousands of wind turbines have a theoretical capacity of 24 GW, but are running at less than 2GW. Yet we plan to double that capacity in the next few years.
“Are there any grown-ups in charge of our energy policy?”
Energy Issues – Australia
Rafe Champion guest post. The failure of wind power in South Australia
By Rafe Champion, Jo Nova’s Blog, Aug 25, 2021
Energy Issues — US
Texas’s Renewables: How Did the Problem Start? (Enron, Republicans Running Wild)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 23, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Twelve years of green power Texas style.]
We Need More U.S. Oil, Not an Import-More-Oil Strategy
By Mark Green, Real Clear Energy, Aug 23, 2021
Natural Gas Plant Expansion Planned for SRP
By Staff, All about Arizona News, Aug 26, 2021
Bonneville Power Administration
By Staff, BPA.Gov/transmission
BPA Balancing Authority Total Wind Generation, Near-Real-Time
BPA Balancing Authority Load and Total Wind, Hydro, Fossil/Biomass, and Nuclear Generation, Near-Real-Time
Today’s Outlook
By Staff, California ISO, Daily
http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/supply.aspx
Washington’s Control of Energy
Campaign to shut down New York City’s peaker plants gains congressional ally
By Scott Van Voorhis, Utility Dive, Aug 27, 2021
Return of King Coal?
Peak Coal?
By David Middleton, WUWT, Aug 27, 2021
Regulators Rattle AEP’s Plans to Operate 4.2-GW of Coal Power Through 2040
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Aug 25, 2021
Nuclear Energy and Fears
As Nuclear Plants Close, Biden’s Net-Zero Electric Sector Becomes More Difficult
By Staff, Institute for Energy Research, Aug 26, 2021
Lawrence Livermore Claims a Near Break Even Nuclear Fusion Burn
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 26, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Blue Hydrogen Has Larger GHG Footprint Than Natural Gas
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 26, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Guest post by Rafe Champion. Will it work to press on with more wind and solar power with existing storage technology?
By Rafe Champion, Jo Nova’s Blog, Aug 24, 2021
Link to briefing papers: Casualties on the road to Net Zero Emissions
By Various, Rite-On!, Different Dates
Vistra Finishes Second Phase of California Energy Storage Project
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Aug 19, 2021
California Dreaming
California’s Energy And Climate Regulations Are “Green Jim Crow”
By Robert Bryce Real Clear Energy Aug 25, 2021
California Orchestrates Disaster
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Aug 24, 2021
Link to report: SB 100 Joint Agency Report
By Staff, California Energy Commission (CEC), California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), and California Air Resources Board (CARB), 2021
“Senate Bill (SB) 100 established a landmark policy requiring renewable energy and zero-carbon resources supply 100 percent of electric retail sales to end-use customers by 2045.”
“What the report doesn’t mention in detail, is the cost associated with this scheme, nor does it recognize the scheme is, in fact, impossible to achieve, despite the results of their computer generated forecast.”
[SEPP Comment: Delusional plans for deluded legislators.
California Discovers The Sun Does Not Shine At Night!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 25, 2021
California: Curtailing Solar Power & Building Natural Gas Plants… Because…
By David Middleton, WUWT, Aug 24, 2021
California Will Add Gas-Fired Units to Increase Power Supply
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Aug 20, 2021
California to build five natural gas plants to prevent blackouts. Will Fresno get one?
By Yesenia Amaro, The Fresno Bee, Aug 20, 2021
“Lisa Lien-Mager, deputy secretary for communications with the California Natural Resources Agency, provided a statement to The Bee on behalf of the Newsom administration.
“‘These temporary generators are a contingency to shore up grid reliability in the face of extreme heat challenges this summer across the West,’ Lien-Mager said in the statement.
“California, she said, remains focused on tackling climate change through ‘clean energy policy, working towards renewable energy portfolio standard of 60 percent by 2030.’ The state also has a benchmark for zero-carbon resources to supply all retail sales of electricity by 2045.
“‘If anything, the recent emergencies highlight why we are moving urgently toward carbon neutrality and renewable energy,’ she said.”
Other Scientific News
Can-do Petroleum vs. Can’t Do Renewables (Part II)
By Steve Overholt, Master Resource, Aug 27, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Benefits of petrochemicals that are too often overlooked.]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Playing the wild card
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Aug 4, 2021
[SEPP Comment: The “wilding” of farmland and vacated areas.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Volcanoes acted as a safety valve for Earth’s long-term climate
By Staff Writers, Southampton UK (SPX), Aug 24, 2021
Link to paper: Global chemical weathering dominated by continental arcs since the mid-Palaeozoic
By Thomas M. Gernon, Nature Geoscience, Aug 23, 2021
Andrew Dessler vs. The ‘a–hole’ World
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Aug 25, 2021
[SEPP Comment: An arrogant academic is exposing himself.]
Friday Funny: Climate Change Bingo
Today’s Friday Funny courtesy of Josh, WUWT, Aug 27, 2021
Marijuana smoked my planet
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 25, 2021
Taliban go green and vow to help fight climate change
By Staff, Global Warming Policy Forum & Newsweek, Aug 24, 2021
ARTICLES
1. White House Climate Director Defends IPCC Report
The product is the definitive word on climate science.
Letter by Jane Lubchenco, WSJ, Aug 22, 2021
TWTW Summary: The deputy director for climate and environment at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy writes:
“Attempts to politicize science undermine economic opportunities and harm everyone. Your editorial’s claim that the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global scientific authority on climate change, is a ‘political document’ repeats a divisive falsehood that has dangerous consequences (‘A Climate of Catastrophe,’ Aug. 10).
“For over 30 years, the IPCC has had the most comprehensive process evaluating the global state of climate science. Hundreds of scientists volunteer time, producing the most intensively scrutinized expert review in the scientific world. They weigh all relevant studies to deliver a collective scientific judgment. This report assessed more than 14,000 scientific publications. It addressed over 78,000 scientific and public comments.
“The product is the definitive word on climate science. The document is policy-relevant—not prescriptive—empowering governments to act, armed with the best possible knowledge.
“The evidence is undeniable: Burning fossil fuels and deforestation are heating the Earth, …. This isn’t politics; it’s physics.
“The Biden-Harris administration understands that scientific knowledge, free from politics, is paramount to a better future. Its leaders are taking aggressive action to reduce carbon pollution and the impacts of climate change in ways that bolster economic opportunity and create jobs. Obfuscating the world’s best science is a disservice to readers who depend on objective information to make independent assessments in the face of a changing planet.”
To which Ken Haapala responded: If it’s physics not politics as Ms. Lubchenco says, why use models that overestimate the warming of the atmosphere by many times? Why does the IPCC ignore measurements of the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere where it occurs?
*********************
Biden’s Coming Climate Commission
FERC, a powerful energy agency, will soon flip to Democratic control..
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Aug 27, 2021
TWTW Summary: the editorial begins:
President Biden’s climate plans could soon be advancing through the administrative state, and the place to watch is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC. This obscure outfit oversees America’s natural-gas pipelines and electricity markets, and Democrats are poised take control.
After discussion of a Republican holdover, the editorial states the stakes are high and continues:
Even under GOP control, the past few months have been trying. At FERC’s acrimonious meeting in May, two minor natural-gas projects were nearly derailed by climate change. Northern Natural Gas wanted a new compressor station, along with some other odds and ends. Tuscarora Gas Transmission wanted to replace a compressor unit while doubling its power. Everyone agreed these were worthwhile projects, and they eventually passed 3-2.
But the two Democratic commissioners dissented, because the proposals didn’t come with environmental impact statements to evaluate their climate effects. What if a study predicted nontrivial emissions? This wouldn’t be ‘a death knell’ for a project, the Democrats argued, since the developer could always offer ways ‘to mitigate those adverse impacts.’
This is a glimpse of the future: In February FERC put out a notice seeking ‘stakeholder perspectives’ on ways to revise its approval process for new natural-gas projects. It specifically cited public interest in ‘how the Commission addresses climate change.’ Building natural-gas lines in the future will probably involve more studies and green indulgences, assuming that the project isn’t killed outright.
The Democratic ambition is even higher on electricity. Progressives want a massive build-out of wind and solar energy, often in remote areas or offshore, meaning huge spending on transmission lines to route the power to populations centers. Hitting net-zero emissions could require $360 billion of transmission upgrades through 2030, and $2.4 trillion by 2050, according to a Princeton University study.
In light of such figures, FERC Chairman Richard Glick has been musing about tweaking cost allocations. ‘In the past, we’ve been looking at beneficiaries in a very narrow way,’ Mr. Glick, a Democrat, said in June. ‘So for instance, if you get power from a particular line, you’re considered a beneficiary, but if you don’t, you’re not.’ A broader view, he suggested, might recognize how transmission lines ‘enable states and others to achieve their carbon reduction goals.’
The editorial concluded with questioning whether West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin who heads the Energy Committee will agree to a nominee who expresses the same view.
In a comment, Ken Haapala suggested: A competency test for FERC regulators: specify the type of electricity generation and the cost required to back up wind and solar when they fail. [Additional comment: Mr. Glick’s musing indicates ignorance that the grid is an energized system serving all on it. It is balancing generation with use that is important.]
How are those EVs working out in Louisiana today?
And for the next few weeks
When I’m told theMWP was Northern Hemisphere only, apart from saying it’s all water in the south, I point them to this page on Google Maps.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1akI_yGSUlO_qEvrmrIYv9kHknq4&ll=-3.81666561775622e-14%2C118.89756200000005&z=1
Which links locations to papers which reference the MWP. As far as I can tell all papers are included, from those showing warmth to those showing nothing. Once referenced I leave it to the other party to come back with a “see told you it was NH only”. So far nbody has.
Those papers do NOT show MWP was GLOBALLY warm. MWP as a special period (like precipitation patterns etc.) is shown to have had a fingerprint in quite a few places worldwide. This is only in the North Atlantic where it was warmer than the period before and after (and it wasn’t warm synchronously there either). I know there’s a whole site where they have collected a lot of papers about this. I’m pretty sure your first reply otherwise would be a link to this site. No need for that, you can spare this effort. That presentation of a substantial number of (valid!) papers may, in this form, be considered a “gish gallop”.
Number of the Week: – The missing 97%:
No, not missing just that 398 W/m^2 at the Earth’s surface equates to 239 W/m^2 at a height of 749 km above the surface which means that the satellites are measuring the temperature from about the middle of the thermosphere and there is no greenhouse effect.
As has been stated repeatedly, the cold atmosphere cannot heat the hotter Earth’s surface. This is especially so for CO2 as the four main absorption peaks make up less that one fifth of the emission from the surface. Less than half of this might be back-radiated towards the surface and, not being hotter than the surface, does not cause any mythical ‘global warming’.
Sorry, wrong formula. It should be 1805 km above the Earth’s surface.
name for the other 97% … Life Blanket (LB) … or Extinction Avoidance Blanket (EAB)
Online NASA seminar today:
https://www2.acom.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/seminars/dallasanta_seminar.pdf
https://operations.ucar.edu/live-acom
So, the 97.7% is static and unaffected / not interacting with changes in CO2? (Rhetorical)
If every doubling = 3.7 watts, then the first 3.7 watts of CO2 power would have been at 22 parts per quintillion.
South Africans frolick in the snow
DW’s Adrian Kriesch drove just outside of Cape Town, an area that’s currently seeing massive snow fall – much to the pleasure of both young and old.
https://youtu.be/XeJ-dS99Ht0