Extreme Temperatures?

Reposted from NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

AUGUST 25, 2021

By Paul Homewood

If anybody thinks the British climate is changing, they should mail their brains to Brains4Us and ask for a refund!

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif

There is no runaway warming, no extreme temperatures and we aren’t about to turn into the South of France. There is just the same old weather we have always had in the past.

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August 25, 2021 10:20 pm

Perhaps Michael Mann can perform his warming trick to fix those stubborn temperatures that won’t cooperate. He’s done it before, and he was shot down like a low flying goose that he resembles so closely. Minnesotans for Global Warming had his number early on.

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Karl Baumgarten
August 26, 2021 3:16 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJUFTm6cJXM

These guys always make me happy!

Sara
Reply to  Karl Baumgarten
August 26, 2021 3:51 am

Please do not insult geese. They are considerably smarter than MIckey Mann, who bears more resemblance to a tuber like a sweet potato than anything else. 🙂 He probably has a fit and sits in it when fall and winter come on time and it snows.

Davidf
Reply to  Sara
August 26, 2021 4:34 pm

MM looks closer to pictures Ive seen of the Dodo, in my opinion. I imagine he will ultimately end up at about the same place in history

John Adams
Reply to  Sara
August 26, 2021 8:02 pm

Mm has managed to create a well paying career. He’s obviously not stupid.

Vuk
Reply to  Karl Baumgarten
August 26, 2021 4:56 am

England has warmed up 0.5C in the last 270 years ( big deal !) as from the end of the Maunder Minimum and deepest depth of LIA and possibly 8,000 years minimum. England’s temperature is climbing back towards its millennial averages.

CET-330.gif
Last edited 24 days ago by Vuk
Anthony Banton
Reply to  Vuk
August 26, 2021 6:41 am

How about we put those graphs in context:
comment image
comment image?w=600&h=366&zoom=2

Winters have warmed by 1.5Ccomment image

Also:
“Although best efforts have been made by Manley and subsequent researchers to quality control the series, there are data problems in the early years, with some non-instrumental data used. These problems account for the lower precision to which the early monthly means were quoted by Manley. Parker et al. (1992)[1] addressed this by not using data prior to 1772, since their daily series required more accurate data than did the original series of monthly means. Before 1722, instrumental records do not overlap and Manley used a non-instrumental series from Utrecht compiled by Labrijn (1945), to make the monthly central England temperature (CET) series complete.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 26, 2021 7:38 am

How about we put those graphs in context:

And just what would that “context” be? That the world is recovering from the LIA?

Vuk
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 26, 2021 8:22 am

As I said 0.5 C in nearly 3 centuries, get out your brain out of the IPCC paper waste bin. Most of sane people are glad about warmer winters.
Tony Banton, let see you in few days when the CET August numbers come out.
There are cycles of ~ 60 years, and I have shown one full cycle in each case, and coincidence between those set of numbers is surprisingly good. You have CET numbers, plot a new your own graph and ask an intelligent question of yourself:
Why could this be ?comment image?fit=683%2C502&ssl=1
Say hello to Griffo for me.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 26, 2021 12:11 pm

Just what is it you believe you’ve illustrated with your “context”? Surely you must have heard of The Little Ice Age, haven’t you? If not, don’t be shy, just ask. Most people here would be more than willing to educate you.

Joe Lynch
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 29, 2021 3:21 am

Do you WANT to be back in the LIA?? Are you mad or just have a death wish?

Zig Zag Wanderer
August 25, 2021 10:22 pm

That’s a shame. My fondest memories of living in the south of France as a youth was trying to keep my eyes above neck-level when talking to beautiful young ladies bathing topless.

Ah, well…

Last edited 24 days ago by Zig Zag Wanderer
Alan the Brit
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
August 26, 2021 12:10 am

On my first trip to France as a young man aged 21, I was with my mates in the south on a beach, where a taxi driver passing by on the roadside could tell (from miles away) that we were English, he told us that if we go to the next beach a short way along the coast, there were lots of girls with “big gills”, we didn’t realise what he meant until we took his advice!!! Oh those heady days of youth!!! Come on globul warming, lets enjoy lovely year long summers, & big gills!!!

another ian
Reply to  Alan the Brit
August 26, 2021 2:44 pm

Heard more recently

“Welcome to summer, bicycles and halter tops”

spock
Reply to  Alan the Brit
September 8, 2021 5:15 am

big gills = Hooters

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
August 26, 2021 12:14 pm

You seem to have picked up the wrong message. If they didn’t want you to look, they wouldn’t be going topless.

Waza
August 25, 2021 10:31 pm

Hi from down under.
It is my understanding that for the UK, the major player for weather is the Atlantic jet stream, but minor players such as polar, continental and African winds also play an non insignificant role.
Have alarmists actually provided a scientific hypothesis about CO 2 impacts each of these weather patterns.
What do they say will happen to theses weather patterns?
What is actually happening to theses weather patterns?

Leo Smith
Reply to  Waza
August 25, 2021 11:58 pm

I think the answer is that they will be unprecedentedly near the long term average, showing that something is clearly wrong

Reply to  Waza
August 25, 2021 11:59 pm

CO2 does something with photons of low IR energy and then…
bada-bing, bada-boom…the Earth fries.
Science.
Stop questioning it.
At this point I’d say, “Now hand over your money and liberties.” But your being from Down Under that’s already done for a cold virus.

Ulric Lyons
Reply to  Waza
August 26, 2021 6:02 am

Yes, all the circulation models predict drier summers for northwest Europe with rising CO2 forcing, but the summers have on average become wetter since 1995.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Ulric Lyons
August 26, 2021 7:42 am

Yes, all the circulation models predict drier summers …

It is my understanding that while there is some general agreement on temperatures, the models are often contradictory on their precipitation predictions.

Drake
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 26, 2021 9:08 am

That way they have all of their bases covered.

Ulric Lyons
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 27, 2021 7:04 pm

The IPCC and Met Office model consensus is increasingly positive NAO with rising CO2 forcing, which means drier summers for NW Europe.

Duane
Reply to  Waza
August 26, 2021 10:05 am

The warmunistas have only one response – they claim, with zero proof, that CO2 is the world’s thermostat, period, end of story.

As if the well known complexities of astrophysics, geophysics, thermodynamics, biology, and all the other natural sciences are nothing, to be ignored. Because models.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Duane
August 26, 2021 12:18 pm

Hell, they’re a long way from “proof”. They don’t even have any evidence.

Gary Pate
August 25, 2021 11:23 pm

Stop making sense. You are ruining the gravy train… #ClimateScientology forever!

Chaswarnertoo
August 25, 2021 11:57 pm

I used to believe in AGW, in the 80s…..

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
August 26, 2021 12:14 am

Me too, then I grew up & started looking at the science, & found that around 95% (or was it 97%) of the evidence for manmade globul warming came from X-Box360 Lara Croft fantasy world puter models!!!

Notanacademic
Reply to  Alan the Brit
August 26, 2021 12:31 am

Perhaps 97% of scientists were distracted by Lara’s big gills!

Mariner
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
August 26, 2021 12:29 am

I used to believe in the 70’s ice age. As I was on a ship off Iceland it was quite believable.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
August 26, 2021 7:43 am

“AGW is so ’80s!”

August 26, 2021 12:29 am

The UK Met Office doesn’t even look at its own data any more before mouthing off about non-existent changes in the UK climate.

fretslider
August 26, 2021 12:31 am

Only the woke National Trust would announce siestas for their staff to escape the fierce 22C temperatures in summer

Today it’s cloudy and will reach19C

How will they cope?

Last edited 24 days ago by fretslider
griff
August 26, 2021 12:51 am

Temperatures well over 40C in Spain, Sicily and Greece, even in summer, ARE extreme and ARE records: temperatures seen in NW USA/Canada ARE extreme ARE records (and so on).

fretslider
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 12:55 am

Spain, Italy and Greece are much further south with completely different weather systems doh

Reply to  fretslider
August 26, 2021 3:06 am

Right, they offen get heat from northerm and central Africa.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 26, 2021 12:26 pm

They even have charming names for all the winds … Mistral, Sirocco, Meltemi and Khamsin.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Rory Forbes
August 27, 2021 8:17 pm

Yep, they were so charming that Maserati named cars after them. Seriously.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  philincalifornia
August 27, 2021 9:15 pm

Actor Errol Flynn owned a beautiful 74′ Alden Ketch named Sirocco. In fact I think he had two of that name. However it was his 34 m. gaff rigged schooner, Zaca that really stole the show.

mcswelll
Reply to  fretslider
August 26, 2021 6:23 am

And what’s your point? That Spain, Italy and Greece are not part of the Earth, while central England is?

MarkW
Reply to  mcswelll
August 26, 2021 9:02 am

They never covered reading comprehension in your schooling?

Rory Forbes
Reply to  mcswelll
August 26, 2021 12:29 pm

Surely that doesn’t need explanation. I mean … seriously?

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 1:58 am

The word “extreme” used with weather is a misnomer. It incorrectly divides weather into two categories, normal and extreme. However, weather includes all sorts of conditions, hot and cold, wet and dry, windy and still and so on. Nor should we speak of extreme climates.

There are some thirty climate zones and sub-zones. In each of these we find a range of weather conditions. What is normal in each of these is different from the others. Further, normal does not mean the average which is misleading but what people expect like winter rain in a Mediterranean area.

For an intelligent conversation about climate and weather we need to carefully use language and accurately define the terms we use. Climate alarmists are often characterized by shoddy language, a lack of cogent arguments and resorting to ad hominems.

Hoyt Clagwell
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
August 26, 2021 10:25 am

How do we have an intelligent conversation when all of the data is reduced to averages of anomalies. The data is recorded as daily highs and lows, and should remain so.

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Hoyt Clagwell
August 27, 2021 3:06 am

If I understand you correctly you are saying we should work with the raw data, with the primary source. I agree and then we can look to find patterns and not align or adjust the data to fit artificial models.

Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 2:59 am

In Menton, southern France just beside Italy, Chistmas is the date for last bath in Mediterranean sea for hardcore swimmer.
That tells you, it’s not so cold, it’s a warm / hot summer region too.

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 3:18 am

40s in the Algarve, perfectly normal for summer!

Joao Martins
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 3:28 am

griff, that is plain foul play!

NOT Spain, NOT Sicily, NOT Greece!

It was ONE spot, a tiny region of Spain, ONE village, a tiny place in Sicily, and ONE spot, a tiny region of Greece! Just look at the meteorological records of other stations in those countries?

mark stevens
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 4:00 am

It’s a good thing you weren’t alive in the ’30’s where so-called ‘extreme’ temps dwarfed anything we’ve ever seen.

Vuk
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 4:21 am

Hi Griffo
In capital of Montenegro (half way between Greece and Italy) most of the summers they have one or more days when the temperature exceeds 40 C. The capital has increased its population from some 20,000 in 1950s to over 200,000 currently. All these people have come down from the nearby mountains, very happy to endure hot summers in order not having to put up with freezing cold winters.
comment image
This is image from 6 months ago that people try to escape away from, as featured in one of my comments here on WUWT.

Last edited 24 days ago by Vuk
Reply to  Vuk
August 26, 2021 4:29 am

“DANGEROUS” LEVEL 6 ALERT ISSUED IN SOUTH AFRICA AS ANTARCTIC BLAST NEARS, AUSTRALIA’S “REMARKABLE” SNOWFALL VISIBLE FROM SPACE, + UK WIND FARM ADMITS ‘SAFETY BREACHES’ AFTER WORKER FROZE TO DEATH
August 26, 2021 Cap Allon
Our planet is COOLING in line with a historic drop in solar activity. This truth can’t be concealed for much longer…

BrentC
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
August 26, 2021 7:12 am

Thanks for posting this, Allan. Link saved for referencing.

Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
August 26, 2021 10:21 am

But the record cold is just weather, right?

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Robert Wager
August 26, 2021 12:36 pm

Exactly … but when you think about it, it’s ALL “just weather”. Climate is really just a generalized concept in which change is the default condition.

Reply to  Robert Wager
August 27, 2021 1:59 am

“But the record cold is just weather, right?”

BUT:

COLD WEATHER KILLS 20 TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE AS HOT WEATHER
by Joseph d’Aleo and Allan MacRae, September 4, 2015
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf
 
THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED
By Allan M.R. MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 27, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/
 

Vuk
Reply to  Vuk
August 26, 2021 4:33 am

Najveća temperatura, od kad se vrše mjerenja izmjerena je 24. avgusta 2007. u Podgorici, kada je živa u termometru pokazala 44,8 stepeni Celzijusovih.
(The highest temperature, since the measurements started, was measured on August 24, 2007 in Podgorica, when the mercury in the thermometer showed 44.8 degrees Celsius.)
Griffo, that was 14 years ago, hence the global warming is over !

MarkW
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 6:07 am

Weather records are too short to declare any records as meaningful. Most records were started after the lows of the Little Ice Age, so it’s hardly surprising that they show some warming.
Regardless, we are still several degrees shy of what temperatures were like during the Holocene Optimum.

Last edited 24 days ago by MarkW
Clyde Spencer
Reply to  MarkW
August 26, 2021 7:51 am

I don’t have a rigorous proof to present, but I believe that for random events, the longer one observes, the greater the chance that one will observe an extreme event.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 26, 2021 1:13 pm

Exactly. The frequency of weather events is described by the Normal Distribution, also known as the Bell Curve. Wait long enough and any weather record will be broken, even in a stable climate.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 7:45 am

Have you heard of what is called a “Mediterranean Climate?”

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 26, 2021 12:40 pm

And oddly enough (just to keep the record straight) … a “Mediterranean Climate” can be found in California and central British Columbia … and no doubt several other locations.

griff
August 26, 2021 12:52 am

and of course the UK climate HAS changed: it manifests itself in the UK now being 6% wetter than 30 years ago, with more and longer intense rain events and associated flooding.

fretslider
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 12:56 am

No it hasn’t stop fibbing

JohnC
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 1:14 am

I used to live in Burton on Trent, when I was a child I remember times when the area around the Trent flooded so much that the water lapped over the viaduct that crosses the valley into town. The viaduct was at least 8’ above the valley floor. In the late 19th century the town centre frequently flooded until a wall was built between the river and the town centre. Is the U.K. wetter than it was in the 1990’s, I cannot really say. Flooding patterns have changed due to house building, road building and the covering of gardens with driveways.

JohnC
Reply to  JohnC
August 26, 2021 5:27 am

Further to my comment. This is from 1875 in Burton on Trent.

E164AACE-AC1A-4715-AE45-02E65A7EC514.jpeg
Phaedo
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 1:56 am

Oh my Gawd. It’s raining! I mean, the sky is litteraly falling on our heads!!!

MarkW2
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 2:06 am

“6% wetter than 30 years ago”, talk about confirmation bias, griff. If the amount of money being wasted on “climate change” weren’t so serious, such a comment would be laughable. As for “longer intense rain events” and “associated flooding”, what time periods are you measuring those over?

I found myself watching a Sky Arts programme about ‘The Moody Blues’ the other evening and Justin Hayward was recounting a story from the 1970s in Malibu, I think it was, where they were due to do some recording. Apparently there was a storm, which today would be described as “catastrophic” and “evidence of climate change”, which devastated housing and infrastructure. In those days it was just weather.

These types of extreme weather have always been around. Just look up any local history and you’ll find accounts of catastrophic flooding going back hundreds of years all over the place. Here’s a link to flood marks on Worcester cathedral going back centuries.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-30375487

The plain truth is there’s ZERO evidence that what’s happening now is anything other than a natural event, especially when you take other factors into account such as the built environment. In the UK millions of homes have put hard surfaces down for extra parking, leaving nowhere for rain water to go naturally. Yet when flooding happens because of this it’s all put down to “climate change”.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  MarkW2
August 26, 2021 6:18 am

As for “longer intense rain events” and “associated flooding”, what time periods are you measuring those over?”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-extremes

UK rainfall records for consecutive rainfall days (0900-0900 UTC)
Days Rainfall (mm) Date Location
Highest 2-day total 405.0 4 to 5 December 2015 Thirlmere (Cumbria)
Highest 3-day total 456.4 17 to 19 November 2009 Seathwaite (Cumbria)
Highest 4-day total 495.0 16 to 19 November 2009 Seathwaite (Cumbria)
Highest monthly total 1396.4 1 to 31 December 2015 Crib Goch (Snowdon)

Vuk
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 26, 2021 8:31 am

Oxford University Radcliffe observatory has most reliable rain record in the UK if not in the world.comment image?fit=300%2C141&ssl=1
It says: 170 years No change !

Last edited 24 days ago by Vuk
Rory Forbes
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 26, 2021 12:48 pm

Don’t you people ever tire of being proved wrong? Aren’t you the least bit humiliated being on the wrong side of history so often? Vuk’s Oxford data is pretty definitive.

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW2
August 26, 2021 6:19 am

I doubt the records are good enough to prove a 6% change over that time period.

Reply to  MarkW
August 26, 2021 10:25 am

6% +/- how much please

Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 2:54 am

UK in Germany was “known”, as I was young, as a very wet country, where many people is red haired because of rust.

Last edited 24 days ago by Krishna Gans
Oriel Kolnai
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 3:24 am

Well, alarmists predicted drought for 2020. So 6% more rain is a definite improvement, not to mention falsifier. Meanwhile, here, our cold and wet miserable continental summer means lousy wine next year:

https://www.thelocal.fr/20210806/french-wine-production-set-for-historic-low-after-disastrous-frosts-and-wet-summer/

Ah me, global warming. When will it ever start?

Climate believer
Reply to  Oriel Kolnai
August 26, 2021 4:43 am

Interesting that these kind of articles are already starting to quote “climate attribution” as discussed in a recent WUWT article.

From your link:

World Weather Attribution, an international organisation that analyses the link between extreme weather events and global warming, said in a study in June that a warmer climate had increased the probability of an extreme frost coinciding with a growing period by 60 percent.”

…expect to see more of this hype in climate alarmist articles.

Oriel Kolnai
Reply to  Climate believer
August 26, 2021 5:16 am

Extraordinary. Where on earth do they get this ‘post hoc ergo procter hoc’ drivel? One false prediction should be enough. But for them to turn 100% lead to gold in this manner suggests much more than ‘evil sorcerer’.

In the groaningly ancient BBC TV series ‘Quatermass 2’, Civil Servants are made the slaves of alien beings when struck by falling ‘debris’ which scars them on the neck. The result is corruption on a massive scale, as the officials prepare the ‘birthing plants’ on Earth.

Something similar seems to be underway today, only it’s not just the officials. Somehow, Authority in all its forms – media, education etc. – has lost its conscience and its mind. The result is utter chaos. Nincompoops in charge of SARS, generals who blunder on about ‘human rights’ under the ‘New’ Taliban whilst the corpses mount, ‘Critical Race Theory’ (or as it was once known, just ‘race theory’) etc. – in short the raping of truth, common sense, common decency and science. We are reaping the whirlwind we were warned about so many decades ago.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Oriel Kolnai
August 26, 2021 6:02 am

Well-stated, exactly right.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Oriel Kolnai
August 26, 2021 12:58 pm

Where on earth do they get this ‘post hoc ergo procter [sic. propter] hoc’ drivel?

If you follow the AGW true believer “arguments” you’ll find they use far more logical fallacies than causal fallacies. Even “climate change” is an appeal to ambiguity. Their entire narrative is a string of fallacies so dominant one doesn’t even need to discuss the science. Simply pointing out which fallacy they’re relying on defeats their “argument”.

Mark BLR
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 4:16 am

That seems “cherry-picked” … what does the actual “official” data from the MET-Office say ? …

Looks like you should have chosen “since 1975” (or 1964 or 1996 or 2003 or …) rather than “30 years ago” (1990 –> 2020).

UK-Rainfall_1862-2020.png
Last edited 24 days ago by Mark BLR
Tom Abbott
Reply to  Mark BLR
August 27, 2021 6:48 am

That makes a difference, doesn’t it. Griff and others need to expand their horizon.

It sometimes takes awhile to sort the climate change wheat from the climate change chaff, but it always seems to get done here at WUWT.

Thanks for your effort.

Climate believer
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 4:18 am

 I know you don’t like facts, but..

Rainfall UK (Met Office)

Duration
Highest 5-min total 32 mm (1.3 in) Lancashire 10 August 1893
Highest 30-min total 80 mm (3.1 in) Dumfries and Galloway 26 June 1953
Highest 60-min total 92 mm (3.6 in) Berkshire 12 July 1901
Highest 90-min total 117 mm (4.6 in) Lancashire 8 August 1967
Highest 120-min total 193 mm (7.6 in) West Yorkshire 19 May 1989
Highest 155-min total 169 mm (6.7 in) London 14 August 1975
Highest 180-min total 178 mm (7.0 in) Lincolnshire 7 October 1960

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Climate believer
August 26, 2021 6:13 am

But also:

UK rainfall records for consecutive rainfall days (0900-0900 UTC)
Days Rainfall (mm) Date Location
Highest 2-day total 405.0 4 to 5 December 2015 Thirlmere (Cumbria)
Highest 3-day total 456.4 17 to 19 November 2009 Seathwaite (Cumbria)
Highest 4-day total 495.0 16 to 19 November 2009 Seathwaite (Cumbria)
Highest mon total 1396.4 1 to 31 December 2015 Crib Goch (Snowdon)

Dave Fair
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 26, 2021 10:07 am

Remind me to stay out of Cumbria. Snowdon may also be a no-go.

Climate believer
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 26, 2021 1:49 pm

…. and that’s your climate change is it?

1 winters day in 2009, in one of the wettest, and mountainous parts of England, known for it’s record breaking rainfall since records began, and long before I’m sure.

Side note, as I’m sure you well know, that particular winter was overall the coldest winter since 1978–79, with a mean temperature of 1.5 °C (34.7 °F). (see image taken on 7th Jan 2010).

Not very convincing.

December 2015, Thirlmere, just up the road from Seathwaite, and Crib Goch at the foot of the highest mountain in England and Wales, again not very surprising or convincing that this is pertaining to something new and unprecedented as alluded to by Griff.

Yes the winter of 2015 was incredibly wet for some, but there were straightforward meteorological reasons for that particular event which have nothing to do with a changing climate.

556px-Great_Britain_Snowy.jpg
leitmotif
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 4:22 am

griff, or should I call you Egriff, this is not the Guardian where you say something stupid and everyone pats you on the back

There was more rainfall in the UK in 1903 than there was in 2020.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Rainfall/date/UK.txt

MarkW
Reply to  leitmotif
August 26, 2021 6:21 am

That’s why griff picked 30 years ago as his starting point.

leitmotif
Reply to  MarkW
August 26, 2021 2:32 pm

Well said MarkW.

I told you I agree with most of what you say.

But not the back radiation sh1te and GHE Willis stuff.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 4:31 am

Oh Griffie-poo, just stop. You are stuck on stupid. Try educating yourself. CO2 does not have magical powers.

Oriel Kolnai
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
August 26, 2021 8:49 am

So, complain about the other side’s ad homs, but OK to call them names? Griff is not ‘stuck on stupid’. He is having a debate, something rapidly becoming a museuem exhibit. Good for him.

Look at the amount of counter evidence he has generated, some good, some weak, some inaccurate. All, including Griff’s, open to criticism. He may enjoy trolling when he sits back and watches the hive swarm. So be it! Answer him politely as many do here. Debate is vital. Which is why alarmists hate it.

Incidentally, CO2 is a miracle. Tiny amounts mean life itself. It is the God particle in the atmosphere.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Oriel Kolnai
August 26, 2021 1:04 pm

You’re confused. Griff is NOT looking for debate. He’s trolling his Guardian sound bites. He makes statements assumed fact, only. He doesn’t debate because he’s a true believer.

Oriel Kolnai
Reply to  Rory Forbes
August 27, 2021 3:41 am

Undoubtedly. In which role (as I try to imply) he has failed. He has drawn Banton from the woodwork to ‘prove’ the world is hotter (a tautology) and a (creative) stampede of statistics is the result. All food for thought even though Homewood’s point was only meant to counter the supposed current English drenching.

Yet Griff ‘s purported rain data has inadvertently disproved warmist predictions for 2020 of Britain’s ‘Siberian climate’ (Grauniad 21/2/2004), and the opposite (in a BBC documentary), England’s need for a 17km squared water reservoir to meet drought. These and all the many other wierd predictions show, as Greg says below, you just can’t keep up.

Only when more alarmists join these discussions can truth be made plain.

https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-of-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions/

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Oriel Kolnai
August 27, 2021 6:58 am

The alarmists don’t have much of an argument to make. If they did, they would be swarming all over this website beating down the skeptics, but we don’t hear much from them, other than for a few amateur weather attribution specialists.

I do imagine the alarmists are swarming over this website, they just don’t do much talking, and we know why: No evidence to present.

Last edited 23 days ago by Tom Abbott
Rory Forbes
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 27, 2021 11:09 am

I do imagine the alarmists are swarming over this website, they just don’t do much talking, and we know why: No evidence to present.

The frustration from the silent viewers is almost palpable. Many of them would rather chew glass than admit to reading the articles and comments on this site.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 27, 2021 8:28 pm

Well, as we know, the truly stupid ones do, but that’s because they’re so truly stupid that they’ve yet to figure out how truly stupid they are.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Oriel Kolnai
August 27, 2021 11:06 am

You make some very good points. I think Tom Abbott has if pegged accurately. Between the two of you, you’ve exposed our opposition for what they are … misguided Cassandras or just true believers lying for “the cause”.

RelPerm
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
August 26, 2021 11:38 am

Bruce,

CO2 does have magical powers to green the earth at very modest increase in concentration. CO2 is magically good, not evil!

philincalifornia
Reply to  RelPerm
August 27, 2021 8:31 pm

That’s because the Calvin cycle is linear wrt CO2. Temperatures have been logarithmically reduced down to zero, or not measurable by Beer-Lambert, with probably a lot of help from convection, conduction, AMO, ENSO, solar cycles, etc. etc.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 4:42 am

the UK climate HAS changed: it manifests itself in the UK now being 6% wetter than 30 years ago

6%? A whole 6%? We’re all going to die!!!

I love the smell of Climate Scientologists wailing in desperation in the morning.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
August 26, 2021 6:04 am

Xenu where are you?!??

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 4:47 am

Seriously, people, you are pandering to the Black Knight troll of WUWT. 6% is not even close to breaching the error bars, assuming Climate Scientology actually acknowledged error bars, which they never do. Why? Because nothing, absolutely nothing, has ever exceeded these error bars since CAGW was invented.

Last edited 24 days ago by Zig Zag Wanderer
philincalifornia
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
August 27, 2021 8:33 pm

That just about says it all. Man made climate change doesn’t even exist.

Ulric Lyons
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 5:58 am

The last time the UK was this wet was during the previous centennial solar minimum. The warm AMO helps.

MarkW
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 6:16 am

Even if your claim was true? So what. The shortest of the known climate cycles are 60 years long. There are suspected cycles that are hundreds to thousands of years long.

Claiming a change over 30 years as meaningful, is an act of scientific misconduct.

PS: rain is a negative feedback, if it is true that global warming is causing more rain, then that is proof that the scary temperature predictions are impossible, and the climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is only 0.2 to 0.3C.

Last edited 24 days ago by MarkW
Rory Forbes
Reply to  MarkW
August 26, 2021 1:07 pm

There are suspected cycles that are hundreds to thousands of years long.

One could argue that the Antarctic “climate” is millions of years long.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  MarkW
August 27, 2021 7:07 am

Good rebuttal !

Griff? Griff?

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 7:56 am

What is the uncertainty range on that 6%? You do know what error bars are, don’t you? If so, why not use them?

Dave Fair
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 10:01 am

Since the UN IPCC CliSciFi reports no measurable increases in flooding, what is one to think, Griff?

Hoyt Clagwell
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 10:33 am

Griff, please tell us all exactly how much rain the UK is supposed to get, and when the UK received that much rain consistently for a hundred year period. Climate changes, rivers change course, glaciers move, grow, and shrink, grasslands become deserts, and the world keeps turning like it always has.

Sara
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 11:30 am

So, griffypoo, you have an objection to rain falling on dirt and making it wet enough to grow plants? That’s like the stuff you eat for breakfast, lunch and dinner, y’know.

What’s wrong with rain, for Pete’s sake? You seem to have some sort of overtly horrified reaction to normal weather cycles, and that doesn’t make any sense, y’know. Rain on plants puts food on your plate. Or are you unable to make that simple connection?

Geezo Pete, I’m really getting worried about you, griffypoo. You’re afraid of normal weather, and in particular, afraid of rain.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 12:44 pm

So you’re agreeing that the UK “climate” has not changed, because even it it’s “now being 6% wetter than 30 years ago”, it was exactly the same 30 years before that. All you’re showing is: 30 years is too short a period to determine “climate”.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  griff
August 26, 2021 8:43 pm

griff, you are not trying hard enough. You only have 43 down-votes. You have done much better than that previously.

RickWill
August 26, 2021 1:00 am

If anybody thinks the British climate is changing, they should mail their brains to Brains4Us and ask for a refund!

Anyone who thinks climate is not changing should take a lesson or three in orbital mechanics.

London now gets 1W/sq.m more ToA sunshine in April than it did in 1850. It has 0.9W/sq.m less in August and September.

These changes in insolation across the northern latitudes of the land masses surrounding the North Atlantic will eventually lead to glaciation as more evaporation during the spring and early summer creates higher precipitable water ahead of more rapid cooling in the autumn. That leads to more snowfall.

The next glaciation cycle actually began in 1585 when perihelion last occurred before the austral summer solstice. But it is only in the very early stage. The change will be obvious within this millennium.

So don’t be a climate change denier. The climate is always changing. Earth NEVER tracks the same path through space at the same orientation.

JohnC
Reply to  RickWill
August 26, 2021 1:21 am

The Earth precessing on its axis. The Earth only completes a full orbit relative to the Sun, which is also precessing (aphelion and perihelion are shifting). Relative to the Galaxy the orbit is actually a helix because the sun is orbiting the galactic centre, which is also moving through space relative to other galaxies.

Greg
August 26, 2021 1:28 am

One sentence and once graph. No explanation of how the author thinks the graph supports his claim.

Run away warming ? That implies an increasing rate of change. How would that be visible on this graph?

No extreme temperatures. Where would that be seen on this graph?

It’s saddening that some skeptics this site gives space to cannot do better than provide ammunition for those who want to say we don’t know what we’re talking about.

There is such a flow of articles here, it’s not even possible to keep up. Maybe an effort reduce the flood and increase the quality would benefit all of us.

Last edited 24 days ago by Greg
Peta of Newark
Reply to  Greg
August 26, 2021 2:01 am

In a way I’m with you here Greg..

  • Temperature is not climate
  • Climate is what people ‘feel’ when they venture out of doors
  • What they feel is mostly humidity = how whatever temperature interacts with whatever water is present
  • Also how windy it is. People don’t like wind, hence why Scotland is so relatively deserted but such a good place for windmills
  • What people feel depends on what they’re used to, or haha, acclimatised to
  • What people feel depends on what mood they’re in
  • Happy, sad, depressed, lonely, stressed, drunk, stoned, power-napping people all feel different and how they feel changes almost ‘by the minute’
  • How they feel depends on the news/media they consume
  • Vast numbers now are acclimatised to central heating, also air conditioning
  • Heating and air con operate using Fossil Fuels. mostly.

Hence my opening words here, that hard to see/read/interpret graphic, nicely depicting The Emperor, affects The Climate infinitely more than CO2 ever will via the radiative GHGE

Where the CO2 came from *will* affect climate =

  • whether that CO2 came from fossil fuel powering heating & air-con systems
  • or
  • whether it came out of farmland affecting humidity and wind strength/patterns
  • if it came out of farmland, it will affect the water capacity/handling ability of ‘landscapes’ – creating ‘floods’ where none previously occurred.
  • those apparent floods need not be and rarely are caused by extra rain, but how the landscape’s ‘acclimatisation’ to water has been altered – especially by ploughing, also the destruction of forest – even if those things occurred 10’s or even 100’s of miles away

Yes, CO2 does control Climate, but not in the way every(scientist)body imagines and does so via that brief list I composed above.

Feel free to add your ‘climate affectors’

edit to add:
Does or does not Gaia sum it all up?
Is or is not Gaia an actual, real and integral part of every last one of us

Real Men won’t admit to such a thing tho – and will go on an (haha scientific) offensive defensive to demonstrate proof of their manliness
<whispers> Is that why so few women are in the Climate Debate?

Last edited 24 days ago by Peta of Newark
Chas
Reply to  Greg
August 26, 2021 2:10 am

The chart is from:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
Notice that the reference period for the mean is 1961 to 1990.

Reply to  Chas
August 26, 2021 8:03 am

it would be interesting to examine the stationarity of the rainfall series

Oriel Kolnai
Reply to  Greg
August 26, 2021 10:41 am

How would runaway warming be represented on the graph? Well, it’s at least a year long, which is many times the usual cited evidence such as extreme heatwaves, wildfires etc. Where drought was once predicted (by for example David Atteneborough), now floods and cold are taken as ‘proof’.The most amazing.science since phrenology

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Greg
August 26, 2021 1:22 pm

Run away warming ? That implies an increasing rate of change.

It does no such thing. It simply means warming that will never end … which is patently absurd and always has been. Although we know that climate is in a constant state of change, the UK isn’t exhibiting any measurable change.at present (except the gradual recovery from the depths of the LIA).

As for the new format being not to your liking … tough. Many of us have little trouble keeping up and I see no problem with the “quality” of the articles. There is a war of ideologies going on. Skeptics won the war of the science and ideas over 30 years ago.

This is one of the few sites on the Internet where most of the members DO know what they are talking about.

Matthew Sykes
August 26, 2021 1:44 am

If you look at CET by season it is clear the warming we have had is winter and autumn:
http://clivebest.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/CET-Seasons.png

JohnC
Reply to  Matthew Sykes
August 26, 2021 2:22 am

Christmas in England is always being presented as being white, however that may have been true for Charles Dickens and the early Victorians, but it is a rare event now( if it was common you wouldn’t be able to bet on a white Christmas!). The definition of a white Christmas is any amount of snow anywhere in the U.K.
I think I can count on the fingers of one hand the number of times there was snow on Christmas Day in my lifetime, and that includes 62/63 when it didn’t snow until Boxing Day. We rarely got snow before December, this has become more common recently, and in 1976 there was snow at the start of the cricket season in Derbyshire.
There has been a noticeable shift in weather patterns in the U.K. over the past 60 years (when I was 5), due to carbon dioxide undoubtably not. Do we really want to go back to when Charles Dickens was a child?

John Phillips
August 26, 2021 1:47 am

There is just the same old weather we have always had…”

Just gradually getting warmer ….



WUWT CET.jpg
John Phillips
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 1:50 am

And Warmer

WUWT CET2.JPG
Jonas
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 4:06 am

What about the sharp increase in temperature between 1690-1730? Seems even steeper than the latest decades warming. How do you explain that? CO2?

One of the reasons IPCC rather start from 1850 or something.Too much to explain otherwise.

John Phillips
Reply to  Jonas
August 26, 2021 4:44 am

The CET is not particularly accurate before around 1770. Temperatures were taken in unheated rooms rather than outside and using crude equipment, missing readings were infilled using non instrumental data from Utrecht, which is not in Central England, last time I checked. Accuracy is no better than +/- 1C and the authors only recommend using the data after 1772. So I would be wary about drawing any conclusions from CET before then.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_England_temperature#Data_quality

Last edited 24 days ago by John Phillips
Steve Z
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 8:33 am

There is plenty of other evidence that the climate in England was much colder from circa 1600 to 1750 than it is now. There are many paintings and documents of a “Winter Festival” which was held annually on the frozen Thames during the 1600’s and early 1700’s, which was discontinued later due to lack of ice.

The warming from the Little Ice Age, which started around 1800, had nothing to do with CO2 levels, which did not change much between 1700 and 1900.

Also, the Romans who settled parts of what is now England wrote about their vineyards, although it is too cold in England to grow wine grapes now. Although they may not have had accurate thermometers, does that prove that the Roman historians were liars?

John Phillips
Reply to  Steve Z
August 26, 2021 5:22 pm

Also, the Romans who settled parts of what is now England wrote about their vineyards, although it is too cold in England to grow wine grapes now.”

Well, that’s a worry. I own shares in Chapel Down, a Winery based in Kent. I am sure I have enjoyed a few glasses of their ‘Flint Dry’. Guess I’ve been scammed 😉

In fact there are Vineyards as far North as Yorkshire.

https://www.winecellardoor.co.uk/directory/map/

fretslider
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 2:12 am

Not this year it isn’t

It’s much cooler this year. Maybe there’s a model for that?

Climate believer
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 3:33 am

A 1°C recovery over 360 years from the LIA.

Alba
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 3:48 am

How come you cherry-picked your starting point as 1975? Try starting in 1980 and see what it shows.

John Phillips
Reply to  Alba
August 26, 2021 4:00 am

1976, actually. Here’s the graph starting 1980

WUWT CET3.JPG
fretslider
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 4:03 am

And it’s still very much cooler in 2021; your trend is buggered.

John Phillips
Reply to  fretslider
August 26, 2021 4:24 am

You think ? According to Hadley the mean temp to July this year is 9.32. There was, of course a heat wave in August and another one forecast starting in a couple days. But let’s ignore those and just add the data to July to the graph using Alba’s preferred start date of 1980.

WUWT CET4.JPG
Last edited 24 days ago by John Phillips
fretslider
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 4:40 am

I know I’m in situ and I can go back way before 1980.

I remember the ice age scare.

There was, of course a heat wave in August 

No there was not. That’s a total lie. Where did you get that duff information from?

Last edited 24 days ago by fretslider
John Phillips
Reply to  fretslider
August 26, 2021 5:06 am

My mistake, memory playing tricks, it was July. August was warm however with an anomaly (to date) of 0.6 compared to 0.39 for the year as a whole. For a larf I calculated how cold 2021 would have to be to flatten the trend since 1980. Here you are…

WUWT CET5.JPG
fretslider
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 5:10 am

My mistake, memory playing tricks, it was July

You call 2 days of 25C a heatwave? Really

Lol

August has been bloody cold. Stop making it up.

Last edited 24 days ago by fretslider
Sara
Reply to  fretslider
August 26, 2021 5:38 am

Where I am, the weather has been chilly at night, cool daytime, and no real heat or humidity until 8/15/21, which is not normal for this time of year. Also, 25 degree drop in temps at night, which is not normal. The highs finally reached 89F to 90 on 8/24/21, and will drop back to 70s by Sunday. Really high humidity, too, oppressive.
But that’s just where I live, not the entire state.

John Phillips
Reply to  fretslider
August 26, 2021 5:44 am

The mid-month heatwave has helped the UK to its joint fifth warmest July on record according to provisional Met Office figures, with Scotland and Northern Ireland recording their third warmest July, in a month where Northern Ireland also broke its all-time high temperature record, exceeding 31C multiple times.

 
Met Office Blog.
 

Last edited 24 days ago by John Phillips
fretslider
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 6:58 am

The Met Office is not exactly reliable. The Barbecue summer…

As millions of Britons holiday at home after that promise of a ‘barbecue summer’, how did the Met Office get it so wrong?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1202982/Met-Office-left-red-faced-Britains-forecast-barbecue-summer-turns-washout.html

In the last few weeks their predictions of rain and Sun have all been wrong – even with the benefit of weather radar.

And here’s the punch line

Met Office and Microsoft join forces to build world’s most powerful weather and climate forecasting supercomputer in UK

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/corporate/2021/met-office-and-microsoft-announce-supercomputer-project

The cost? £1.2 billion What a waste of money

John Phillips
Reply to  fretslider
August 26, 2021 8:13 am

You level an accusation of inaccuracy based on an article in The Daily Mail? Hmmmm.

The Met Office actually used the phrase ‘odds-on for a barbecue summer’, in a press release based on a medium term forecast given a probablilty of just 65%. Maybe these subleties are lost on tabloid journalists…

And that was over a decade ago. In fact the Met 4 day forecast is now as skilful as the 1 day forecast was 20 years ago.

Last edited 24 days ago by John Phillips
Anthony Banton
Reply to  fretslider
August 26, 2021 6:51 am

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2021/08/26/notably-warm-summer-so-far-for-uk-but-not-for-everyone/

“Temperatures have, however, been fairly consistent over the month of August. So, although there hasn’t been any creeping up past 30°C just yet, the average maximum temperature is actually near to the long-term average at the moment, at 19.1°C. August has also been slightly drier than average so far for most, although some regions are close to or above average such as Northern Ireland, eastern Scotland and parts of southeast England. “

B Clarke
Reply to  fretslider
August 26, 2021 8:07 am

He always lies ,he also won’t answer questions when called out.

Dave Fair
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 10:22 am

Start in the late 1980s. Lies, damned lies and graphs.

Bellman
Reply to  fretslider
August 26, 2021 4:29 am

The first seven months of 2021 are around 0.5°C colder than the 1991 – 2020 average, about 0.25°C compared with the 1981 – 2010 average. August looks like being close to the recent average.

English weather is highly variable, even more so the CET. Basing an absence of climate change on half a year is futile.

fretslider
Reply to  Bellman
August 26, 2021 4:46 am

English weather is highly variable

So you too remember 1976 and 1987?

I’m guessing you don’t.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  fretslider
August 26, 2021 7:24 am

I do, as I was 22 and working for the Met O at an RAF base in Yorkshire.
Long, hot and dry yes.
But Max temps weren’t as high as during some the hottest spells we get now. The highest recorded that summer was 35.9C at Cheltenham.
Current record is 38.7 Cambridge 2018

Climate believer
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 26, 2021 8:24 am

Summer 2018 was the equal-second warmest summer in a UK series from 1910 for mean maximum temperature (shared with 1995) with the summer of 1976 being the hottest.

It was also the equal-fourth warmest summer in the Central England Temperature (CET) series from 1659, with summer 1976 warmest in this series.

UK summers Dmax.png
Dave Fair
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 26, 2021 10:33 am

When did they move Cheltenham to Cambridge?

Bellman
Reply to  fretslider
August 26, 2021 1:30 pm

I remember 1976 it was on the news constantly, but I have little recollection of my direct experience of it. I suspect I hated it as a gloomy teenager who hated it being too hot,

I’m not old enough to remember 1987. Checking the CET it seems 1986 through 1988 were all pretty cold summers.

Sara
Reply to  Bellman
August 26, 2021 5:32 am

It’s been like that here in the upper Midwest, too, while down south in the cornfields, it’s been the usual muggy, hot weather, which is good for growing corn and soybeans.

More soybeans means the Greenbeaners have more soybean curd to consume. Isn’t there some sort of relationship between too much soybean stuff and weird physiological imbalances? Could that explain their strange take on the real world?

Just askin’.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Sara
August 26, 2021 8:10 am

Are you referring to soy products mimicking estrogen?

Sara
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 26, 2021 8:39 am

Oh…. possibly, Clyde Spencer. Just possibly. 🙂

I mean, I like soy sauce on certain Chinese dishes (not a lot, either) and it’s a good seasoning for some kinds of soups and stews, but it comes from fermented bean curd or something. Not made into fake beef patties.

Fraizer
Reply to  Sara
August 26, 2021 10:32 am

“…Not made into fake beef patties…”

Never understood why vegans go to all the trouble to make plants taste like beef. Cows have been doing that for millennia.

Sara
Reply to  Fraizer
August 26, 2021 12:49 pm

It’s that old ‘holier than thou’ shtick that they have adopted. And the soyburgers have beef powder mixed into the dough. 🙂

John Phillips
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 4:15 am

And why use CET? Its value lies in its longevity, it goes back to the 1770s, but it only uses 3 stations in the Midlands. The Met Office publish data from the UK and the regions with vastly more coverage. Here’s the England data.
 
No, Mr Homewood, this is not the weather we have had forever. 

WUWT CET3.JPG
Climate believer
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 4:32 am

He didn’t say forever, and graphs of annual means are not weather.

John Phillips
Reply to  Climate believer
August 26, 2021 4:50 am

Oops. Attached the wrong image.

‘Forever’ is just a hyperbolic euphemism for ‘a long time’.

There is just the same old weather we have always had in the past.”

And do you really think an increase in mean temperature of circa 1C will have no impact on the weather?

WUWT UK.JPG
Climate believer
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 6:17 am

 Yes, because if there’s something the climate debate needs right now it’s more hyperbole, anyway…

And do you really think an increase in mean temperature of circa 1C will have no impact on the weather?”

Depends what you mean by impact, (I would say effect), and what kind of weather you’re talking about.

At the moment it would seem that any kind of weather is proof of climate change, it’s always too hot, too dry, too cold, too wet.

This is what passes for “severe weather events” in 2021:

Storm Evert brought unusually strong winds for the time of year..
The UK experienced a brief spell of unusual warmth at the end of March…
The UK experienced a spell of bitterly cold east winds…
Storm Christoph brought some exceptionally wet weather to North Wales…

Is that the impact you’re talking about?

There’s a limit to the plausibility of attributing every little twist and turn of weather to radical climate change.

Extreme weather events have a very, very long history, and quite frankly it’s completely disingenuous to ignore previous historic extreme weather events, because there’s just no comparison.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 8:12 am

The question should be whether 1C will have an impact of any practical significance.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 26, 2021 10:43 am

We do know that 1C did not “have an impact of any practical significance.” Just ask the CliSciFi practitioners at the UN IPCC.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 27, 2021 7:26 am

Does a cooling of 0.5C since 2016, have an impact on extreme weather? Will there be less extreme weather now, than in 2016, since it is cooler now?

Are any weather attribution specialists out there who can help us out here?

B Clarke
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 8:20 am

You seem to be making a lot of mistakes in your last few posts philips, only appear when its a temp related thread, not answering questions when put to you, relying on data thats been corrupted and minipulated, like micky manns hockey stick who started the manipulation of temperature data ,

So whats the point of philips being here the casual observer might ask, answer ,because your a casual observer, temperature is the holy grail of the climate lie ,thats why philips only appears on temperature related threads, his job is to mislead and misinform using officially corrupted data.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  B Clarke
August 26, 2021 1:37 pm

You’ve guessed their dark secret. WUWT is a serious threat to the AGW narrative so each of our trolls has a specific specialty or area of interest. If articles on the “hockey stick”, Mickey Mann’s frauds, legal cases or issues with data manipulation appear … expect to see Phillips. He has all the official counter responses down pat.

B Clarke
Reply to  Rory Forbes
August 26, 2021 1:50 pm

Yes Rory we rumbled him on the last article ,

Rory Forbes
Reply to  B Clarke
August 26, 2021 2:06 pm

I often wonder who employs them, how much they get and on what basis. Or, whether they do it for “the cause” as described by Phil Jones and the rest of “The Hockey Team” in the harryreadme emails.

B Clarke
Reply to  Rory Forbes
August 26, 2021 2:19 pm

This one has some knowledge, relies on the general propaganda science , relies on graphs for answers, not here to convert the regulars just the casual observer, unfortunately for him he’s pretty much blown apart on all the lies he presents, which shows he/ his tribe, organisation are desperate, talk about own goals..

Dave Fair
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 10:39 am

According to the UN IPCC CliSciFi reports, the long-term minor warming and slight wetting the globe has experienced has not resulted in measurable increases in floods, droughts, tornadoes nor hurricanes. Who ya gonna believe?

John Phillips
Reply to  Dave Fair
August 26, 2021 2:02 pm

Try reading the latest AR. See Section A3 of the Summary for Policymakers. Human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. Evidence of observed changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones, and, in particular, their attribution to human influence, has strengthened since AR5.
 
Figure SPM3 covers hot extremes, droughts and precipitation. The statement on hurricanes is more equivocal however says

A.3.4 It is likely that the global proportion of major (Category 3–5) tropical cyclone occurrence has increased over the last four decades, and the latitude where tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific reach their peak intensity has shifted northward; these changes cannot be explained by internal variability alone (medium confidence).

Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 3:03 pm

LOL .. dear gawd, are you trying to be serious … an IPCC “Summary for Policymakers”? Naw … you’re just joking, right?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Rory Forbes
August 27, 2021 7:45 am

Yes, isn’t the Summary for Policymakers what the climate change activists use to distort the meaning of the actual science contained in the official report?

Policymakers = Politicians. Who believes what politicians say? They twist the facts to suit their purposes. That’s what they do in the Summary for Policymakers, written by and for climate change activists and politicians.

In other words, don’t believe everything you see in the Summary for Policymakers. The people who wrote it have a political agenda.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 27, 2021 11:32 am

Exactly so, Tom. The Summary is where they put all their creative writers to work; first parsing and then reinterpreting the data with increased sophistry while adding lashings of hyperbole so the media and later the politicians can paint their scary pictures.

Not surprisingly, the original material available within the principle document is often contradictory to their official narrative, but few people will make the attempt to dig into a 6000 page tome of densely written science talk (often highly ambiguous). As we often say, these reports have limited science value. Their sole intent is their political role and obfuscation any contrary findings.

Dave Fair
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 3:53 pm

The UN IPCC CliSciFi SPM is not a scientific document. It is an admitted political document. The scientific documents state, absent minor warming and wetting, there has been no significant changes in drought, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes & etc. for any long-term periods of time. Cherry-picking is the best they can do, using short trends and vague statements.

And “medium confidence” is a 50/50 proposition. Lies, damned lies and UN IPCC CliSciFi statistics.

John Phillips
Reply to  Dave Fair
August 27, 2021 1:23 am

I don’t really care what you think of the report, however you are lying about what it says on extreme weather.

Care to provide a quote or two?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  John Phillips
August 27, 2021 7:41 am

“Medium CONfidence”

This isn’t science. It’s soothsaying.

fretslider
Reply to  Climate believer
August 26, 2021 4:52 am

Who believes anything coming out of the University of Easy Access??

It’s the home of creative writing…

We established the first Masters in Creative Writing in 1970 and the first PhD in Creative and Critical Writing in 1987. Situated in Norwich, blah, blah, blah

Bill Toland
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 5:06 am

I don’t understand why you are posting all these graphs. Nobody denies that the world has warmed one degree over the last century or so.

John Phillips
Reply to  Bill Toland
August 26, 2021 5:39 am

Maybe, but Paul Homewood uses a graph in an attempt to deny that the English climate has changed at all.

Last edited 24 days ago by John Phillips
Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 6:48 am

No, the graph he posted shows that we have not experienced anything outside natural variability. “trends” and “anomalies” are utterly meaningless and prove nothing.

Last edited 24 days ago by Right-Handed Shark
John Phillips
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
August 26, 2021 7:30 am

But a graph covering less than eight months is incapable of showing any such thing. Unless you think AGW is only confirmed if every month breaks records??

Last edited 24 days ago by John Phillips
Climate believer
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 7:55 am

Wow, now you’re being really disingenuous John, you know that graph shows much more than that.

John Phillips
Reply to  Climate believer
August 26, 2021 8:20 am

?
It is a graph of 2021 to date. It is silent on the climatic trend and extremes outside that period.

And by cherry picking the CET, Homewood misses the 31.3°C recorded at Castlederg, County Tyrone in July,a new all-time temperature record for Northern Ireland for any month.

If that is not an extreme temperature, what is?

‘Disingenous’ indeed.

Last edited 24 days ago by John Phillips
Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 9:43 am

I suggest you look again. The graph compares the annual temperature curve back to 1772. At no point does this years temperatures exceed max of previous years, and barely strays outside of the average for the most part. Natural variability.

John Phillips
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
August 26, 2021 9:55 am

So eight months – no record. Exactly as I said. Proves precisely nothing.

Climate believer
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 10:19 am

31.2°C actually, previous NI record 30.8°C on 12th July 1983.

If that is not an extreme temperature, what is?”

Kilkenny Castle, 26th June 1887 a temperature of 92° F (33.3°C) 

Report of the Meteorological Council 1890 states that the instruments were all in good order.

John Phillips
Reply to  Climate believer
August 26, 2021 1:32 pm

So the instrument inspection happened three years later and Kilkenny is not in Northern Ireland and so not part of the UK.

But point taken, that is a record for Ireland, clearly a case of CHI (Castle Heat Island effect) 😉

DaveS
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 10:23 am

LOL

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Climate believer
August 26, 2021 9:32 am

I don’t think he does.

Bill Toland
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 6:51 am

I read his comments as saying that English weather has not changed and I think that is a fair comment.

John Phillips
Reply to  Bill Toland
August 26, 2021 7:32 am

If anybody thinks the British climate is changing, they should mail their brains to Brains4Us



WUWT UK.JPG
Bill Toland
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 10:41 am

I have no idea why you made your last comment and addressed it to me. It certainly doesn’t invalidate what I said. Perhaps you should read my comment again.

Dave Fair
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 10:53 am

Describe, exactly, the changes to England’s climate. Floods, droughts, storms & etc. Use UN IPCC CliSciFi data.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 1:42 pm

Maybe, but Paul Homewood uses a graph in an attempt to deny that the English climate has changed at all.

That IS the English climate, you dense numpty. It’s you idiots who insist on inventing your own limits to justify a false narrative. It’s you people who have difficulty with the difference between weather and climate. Climate has no fixed period. It’s a concept, not a measurement.

John Phillips
Reply to  Rory Forbes
August 26, 2021 2:33 pm

All you can conclude from the graph is that the last eight months broke no records. Woop-de-do. What you cannot learn from the graph is that mean all-UK temperature has risen over 1C since the 1970s.

This fact is not compatible with the assertion that UK climate has not changed.

You’re welcome.

WUWT UK.JPG
Last edited 23 days ago by John Phillips
Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 3:12 pm

All you can conclude from the graph is that the last eight months broke no records

No, you’re wrong! that’s all YOU can conclude. The rest of us can conclude all sorts of meaningful and interesting things from that graph. However, your response provides several conclusions about your understanding of the topic. You really are quite dense … or you’re being paid to peddle a narrative, unconnected to reality. Which is it?

Dave Fair
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 10:48 am

John, show the trend from the late 1980s. Over 30 years of essentially no trend, I believe. Is that close to forever? Lies, damned lies and graphs.

John Phillips
Reply to  Dave Fair
August 26, 2021 2:23 pm

I am just downloading the data from here and plotting in Excel. Anyone could do it. But here you go …

The average of the five years ending 1990 was 9.77, the five years ending 2020 was 10.54, a rise of 0.25C / decade if my arithmetic is right.

WUWT CET6.JPG
Dave Fair
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 4:01 pm

Show the trend beginning late 1980s and ending 2020. Cherry picking short-term 5 year periods gives lies, damned lies and graphs.

John Phillips
Reply to  Dave Fair
August 26, 2021 4:59 pm

The graph is the trend from 1987-2020.

I’ve given you everything you need to plot your own graph.

Last edited 23 days ago by John Phillips
Dave Fair
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 10:23 am

Start the graph in the late 1980s. Lies, damned lies and graphs.

Bellman
Reply to  Alba
August 26, 2021 4:07 am

Trend in annual mean CET temperatures.

1975 – 2020: 0.23°C / decade
1980 – 2020: 0.25°C / decade

John Phillips
Reply to  Bellman
August 26, 2021 4:35 am

LOL!

Bellman
Reply to  Alba
August 26, 2021 4:31 am

Why start in 1980?

Here’s a chart starting in 1659.

20210826wuwt1.png
Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Bellman
August 26, 2021 6:10 am

RUN AWAY!!

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Bellman
August 26, 2021 8:16 am

Is that a third-order fit? If so, on what is that based? Eyeball calibration?

Bellman
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 26, 2021 1:32 pm

It’s just the default LOESS fit in R.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Bellman
August 26, 2021 8:48 pm

So, it has no mathematical value. Just eye candy.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 6:07 am

Where is the hockey stick? I don’t see it.

Dave Fair
Reply to  John Phillips
August 26, 2021 10:18 am

Start the trend in the late 1980s. Lies, damned lies and graphs.

Hysteria
August 26, 2021 2:11 am

just been to the source data

and there is another graph below the one shown in the blogpost…

I don’t see how the two can possibly stack up….

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Chris Ainsworth
August 26, 2021 2:46 am

‘if anyone thinks the British is changing they should mail their brains to Brains4U and ask for a refund’ Actually if anyone thinks the climate is NOT changing they should do as requested. The climate has changed over time and will continue to do so as long as the Earth continues to exist. If climate was not changing then I would be really concerned. It is a matter of when , how by how much and what the causes of change are that are the questions not whether it is changing.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Chris Ainsworth
August 26, 2021 1:54 pm

When they say “climate change” they apparently mean change over and above natural variation. Some with state it outright some will not. The specific parameters are always left out, leaving the true meaning ambiguous. That means the actual term “climate change” is a logical fallacy … equivocation (appeal to ambiguity).

Real climate change is absorbed into natural variability which occurs over such long periods no human can distinguish the changes. A one degree change over an hour is barely noticeable, let alone over 150 years. The last actual change was the transition between the depths of The Little Ice Age and the present warming. It didn’t happen over night but over a century or more.

Sara
August 26, 2021 3:49 am

Old Farmers Almanac said some hot days in August. Right on the nose there, too, and not enough rain. WE haven’t fried to a crisp yet, don’t expect to, because National Weather Service’s forecast gives us uninformed peasants another day that might go to near 90F (or not) and then backing down to low 80s day, low 70s at night. But we’re missing a lot of rain and the trees are already shutting off the water supply to conserve energy. Grasses peaked too soon, too. There may not be enough seeded grasses to feed the birds.
It’s just part of weather cycles, and nothing else.

Spring is warm, Summer is hot, Autumn cools down, Winter is cold. That’s the cycle. So what’s the problem?

Oh, that’s right: we can’t control the weather which upsets the lab rabbamoles excessively.

Ulric Lyons
August 26, 2021 5:49 am

The difference between Tmin and Tmax was larger in the hot part of July, maybe air pollution.

comment image

comment image

Bellman
Reply to  Ulric Lyons
August 26, 2021 1:36 pm

It was the exact opposite in April. Very sunny, cold but feeling hot in the sun during the day, but very cold at night. Coldest April minimum temperatures in the CET record, starting 1878.

Bellman
Reply to  Bellman
August 26, 2021 3:35 pm

The graph for April mins, shows how extreme this year was.

20210826wuwt3.png
Ulric Lyons
Reply to  Bellman
August 27, 2021 7:09 pm

In fact the warmer middle part of April was similar, Tmin was below average then.

Richard M
August 26, 2021 5:53 am

You would expect Europe to be warmer as the AMO has been in its warm mode since the mid 1990s. Underlying that warmth you have the long term ocean warming since the LIA. The combination of these needs to be removed from any trend data to find out if humans are having any impact on the climate.

I haven’t seen one single climate alarmist who corrects their trends. They all use the natural warming in a sad attempt to support their claims. That’s a dead giveaway these people are anti-science.

DMacKenzie
August 26, 2021 6:48 am

Fit a 2 week moving average to the “measured” line, then do a straight line fit to that….and you can easily see that it will be 30 C by January, which means we will all be fried within 1 year if it continues….so it is much worse than we thought !….demands immediate halt to fossil fuel consumption….or did I miss something ?

2hotel9
August 26, 2021 7:11 am

Climate is weather and weather is climate and humans are affecting neither one. Long past time to mass produce CBD toilet so these idiots can calm there asses down.

Steve Z
August 26, 2021 8:15 am

Which is probably why many Brits like to spend their summers in southern France, where they can swim without a wetsuit and dry off in the sun.

Bruce Cobb
August 26, 2021 8:31 am

The Climate Liars love lying about temperatures almost as much as they do about “extreme weather” and “climate change”. Mix and match, twist language into a pretzel, whatever works to push their ideology.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
August 26, 2021 1:59 pm

When the term used to describe their beliefs is already a logical fallacy, there can be no rational narrative from them. “Climate change” is equivocal … an appeal to ambiguity. It has no real world meaning because change is the default condition of this planet’s atmosphere.

Robert of Texas
August 26, 2021 9:27 am

Even *if* England is gradually warming, how does that prove CO2 has anything to do with it? Are AGW people really so mentally shallow they do not understand that natural climate change is always occurring? How does anyone know that this “0.01” degree change was due to CO2 while that one was natural?

ren
August 26, 2021 9:39 am

During the coming winter, I predict a drop in stratospheric and troposphere temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere due to a decrease in UV radiation, which could bring heavy snowfall to the UK (thanks to the warm Gulf Stream).

ren
Reply to  ren
August 26, 2021 9:59 am

The temperature anomaly in the upper stratosphere in the south increases.comment image

ren
Reply to  ren
August 26, 2021 12:10 pm

Strong ionization of the lower stratosphere by primary and secondary galactic radiation, promises an interesting winter in the northern hemisphere.comment image
https://sol.spacenvironment.net/nairas/Dose_Rates.html

Duane
August 26, 2021 10:00 am

And even if there was warming, giving merry old England a climate just like the south of France would be just what nearly all Englishmen wish for. That climate is why most Brits who can afford it vacation in, or own second homes in, the south of France and in Spain. To get away from the crappy, cold, rainy weather in the British isles.

Duane
Reply to  Duane
August 26, 2021 10:01 am

Then the English could go back to cultivating their own vineyards again … just as they did during the Medieval Warming Period.

Anthony
Reply to  Duane
August 26, 2021 10:41 am

and the Roman warm period, except they were just Britons then………..

John Phillips
Reply to  Duane
August 26, 2021 1:14 pm

What do you mean, go back?

n.n
August 26, 2021 10:23 am

Radiative resampling with diverse, inequitable, and disparate distributions forcing moderate cooling, warming, change, and, on balance, nothing at all, but mostly a confluence of events (e.g. blocking, stadium waves) of variable duration, and questionable attribution, that cause record distortions and a common cause for redistributive change and control, and phobic social cycles that depress economy and mood.

Anthony
August 26, 2021 10:39 am

By the time Dickens came along, London had already started to warm out of the mini Ice-age but if you read Dickens, you would not want to live in the London of 1830. Who wants three foot of snow from the end of November to the end of April. I guess only a loony or two.

Gregory Kelly
August 26, 2021 12:57 pm

don’t need science to change it, Photoshop can do it LOL

image-133.png
Bill Powers
August 26, 2021 1:54 pm

Problem is brainwashed student haven’t experienced enough past and the school political agendists are united in their narrative of the end of days, fossil fuel and their evil parents who must also be racists despite their heritage. Everyone knows that global warming is intricately tied to racism, the ‘rona, and religion. Just read the tea leaves, its science you know. The Central Authoritarians promise to use it to save us once they have totalitarian control.

August 26, 2021 6:02 pm

Meanwhile Arctic ice levels off significantly, showing a sharp reduction in melt.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Almost looks extreme.

Ryan
August 28, 2021 1:40 pm

It’s easier to believe in what we cannot see than what is right in front of our eyes is generally the case. Climate change is a religion that is meant to have us believe in what we cannot see propped up by the occasional extreme weather events as a proof of its existence. As any religion, this one is also money dependent and needs people to believe in it enough to fund it else it would die. Climate change as any other religion is a lie.

spock
September 8, 2021 5:13 am

I live in Tokyo and we have had by far the coolest, wettest summer in living memory. Why is this not being reported in the media? Here is an example to show the BS of climate change warmongering.

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