By P Gosselin on 8. August 2021
Here are 3 reasons why global surface temperatures will probably see continued cooling over the coming year.
1. La Nina back in the forecast
NASA continues to project La Niña conditions into 2022 thus suggesting vigorous globally time-shifted cooling conditions:
The NOAA-ENSO forecast also shows La Niña conditions taking hold again later this year:
Hat-tip: Snowfan here
Because the ENSO has moved back into neutral range during the summer, a modest warming of global temperature can be expected in early 2022. But with a lag of about 8 months, global temperatures will tend to cool off by early summer of next year, 2022, in response to the coming La Niña – should the above ENSO projections come true.
2. Soot filtering out sunlight over North America
Another factor that could act to cool the earth’s surface a bit over the short term are the massive wildfires in California and elsewhere this summer. Satellite images show a sun-blocking haze of smoke spreading over large parts of North America:
Satellite image of California wildfire emitting large quantities of smoke into the atmosphere. Image August 6, 2021: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 17.
The following graphic from July 21st shows how much soot was measured in the atmosphere over the US and Canada as wild fires raged:
NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using GEOS-5 data from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC and VIIRS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE, GIBS/Worldview, and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). Story by Adam Voiland.
3. Low sunspot activity
The previous solar sunspot cycle was one of low activity, and recent sunspot activity has been very low. In fact according to SpaceWeatherLove.com here, the sun currently has no spots.
The upcoming solar cycle no. 25 is also expected to be one of low sunspot activity. Such cycles of low activity are linked to periods of cooler earth surface temperatures.