More than five million deaths a year can be attributed to abnormal hot and cold temperatures
MONASH UNIVERSITY
More than five million extra deaths a year can be attributed to abnormal hot and cold temperatures, according to a world first international study led by Monash University.
The study found deaths related to hot temperatures increased in all regions from 2000 to 2019, indicating that global warming due to climate change will make this mortality figure worse in the future.
The international research team, led by Monash University’s Professor Yuming Guo, Dr Shanshan Li, and Dr Qi Zhao from Shandong University in China and published today in The Lancet Planetary Health looked at mortality and temperature data across the world from 2000 to 2019, a period when global temperatures rose by 0.26C per decade.
The study, the first to definitively link above and below optimal temperatures (corresponding to minimum mortality temperatures) to annual increases in mortality, found 9.43 per cent of global deaths could be attributed to cold and hot temperatures. This equates to 74 excess deaths for every 100,000 people, with most deaths caused by cold exposure.
The data reveals geographic differences in the impact of non-optimal temperatures on mortality, with Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa having the highest heat and cold-related excess death rates.
Importantly, cold-related death decreased 0.51 per cent from 2000 to 2019, while heat-related death increased 0.21 per cent, leading to a reduction in net mortality due to cold and hot temperatures.
The largest decline of net mortality occurred in Southeast Asia while there was temporal increase in South Asia and Europe.
Professor Guo, from the Monash University School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, said this shows global warming may “slightly reduce the number of temperature-related deaths, largely because of the lessening in cold-related mortality, however in the long-term climate change is expected to increase the mortality burden because hot-related mortality would be continuing to increase.”�.
Professor Guo said previous studies had looked at temperature-related mortality within a single country or region.
“This is the first study to get a global overview of mortality due to non-optimal temperature conditions between 2000 and 2019, the hottest period since the Pre-Industrial era,”� he said.
“Importantly, we used 43 countries’ baseline data across five continents with different climates, socioeconomic and demographic conditions and differing levels of infrastructure and public health services, so the study had a large and varied sample size, unlike previous studies.”
The mortality data from this groundbreaking Monash study is significantly higher than the second-largest study published in 2015, which was based on 74 million deaths across 13 countries/regions and estimated 7.7 per cent of deaths were related to cold and hot temperatures.
Professor Guo said that showed “the importance of taking data from all points of the globe, in order to get a more accurate understanding of the real impact of non-optimal temperatures under climate change.”�.
Of the global deaths attributed to abnormal cold and heat, the study found:
*More than half occurred in Asia, particularly in East and South Asia
*Europe had the highest excess death rates per 100,000 due to heat exposure
*Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest death rates per 100,000 due to exposure to cold
Professor Guo added understanding the geographic patterns of temperature-related mortality is important for the international collaboration in developing policies and strategies in climate change mitigation and adaptation and health protection.�
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ANNUAL DEATHS DUE TO ABNORMAL TEMPS BY REGION:
* Africa 1.2 million
* Asia 2.6 million
* Europe 835,000
* South America 141,000
* UK 52,000
* US 173,600
* China 1.04 million
* India 74,000
* Australia 16,500
ANNUAL DEATHS DUE TO COLD TEMPS BY REGION:
* Africa 1.18 million
* Asia 2.4 million
* Europe 657,000
* South America 116,000
* UK 44,600
* US 154,800
* China 967,000
* India 655,400
* Australia 14,200
ANNUAL DEATHS DUE TO HIGH TEMPS BY REGION
* Africa 25,550
* Asia 224,000
* Europe 178,700
* South America 25,250
* UK 8000
* US 18,750
* China 71,300
* India 83,700
* Australia 2300
Everybody dies … get used to it.
Funny how the left and some on the right claim to cry about the deaths from swings in the weather. Its exactly what they want. Every last one of them is zero population growther. They are crying crocodile tears.
Hold on everyone! Didn’t the world’s population increase over the period in question? Was that due to AGW, ACC or simply two people of opposite sex, lying in bed trying to get warm. It seems to me the argument stated above is totally irrelevant!
Have you also noticed that the numbers do not always add up? 🙂
E.g. China
cold + warm: 1.04 mln
cold: 967,000
warm: 71,300
India:
cold + warm: 74,000
cold: 655,400
warm: 83,700
If the researchers cannot do basic arithmetic, how are they supposed to handle big data basis?
Then again, they did say “ 9.43 per cent of global deaths could be attributed to cold and hot temperatures” and used the magic word “could”. They are not sure.
The numbers for China add up just fine.
I think you’ll find the India total should have been 740,000 rather than 74,000 which looks like a typo in the transcription of the article, rather than a maths error
It’s ironic that Chinese scientists are issuing this information or maybe warnings because China is by far the world’s worst producer of carbon emissions, the supposed driver of climate change. What that country intends to do about them is essentially the same as the rest of the planet; i.e., not enough to reduce them if such action has a negative effect on economic growth and/or poverty alleviation.
I like that pretty summary graphic.
“Look! More people we die in Asia than Oceania!”
Yeah… more people live in Asia c.f. Oceania. Those dials are simply pretty things to fill up the page to keep the short attention span generation happy.
Hm, could the researcher publish the list of deads due to climate change simply to check their numbers? To produce the list would be rather easy because the dead certificates always include the cause of death. Or do the researcher present only fairy tales without any concretion?
0.051 x 4,594,000 >>>> 0.021 x 489,000
Therefore global warming is bad.
I seriously wonder if they get anyone to read these reports with even a modicum of scepticism before they rush to publish.
missed the extra 0.0 …….
”ANNUAL DEATHS DUE TO ABNORMAL TEMPS BY REGION:
* Australia 16,500…”
ANNUAL DEATHS DUE TO COLD TEMPS BY REGION:
* Australia 14,200
Oh what a load of bullshit!!!
Does that include heart, stroke and cancer patients dying on hot or cold days? This number is garbage!! I don’t believe it for a second. The coldest it gets in Australia (where people actually live) is probably around 2 or 3 degrees. (at night when people are warm in bed) Average is probably more like 10C at night and 17-20 (?) during the day. Who are all these people dying of cold – or heat for that matter?
We locked down the entire country to keep covid deaths to 910 … can you imagine what we would do if that was true.
So now lets look at how the Attribution Statistics game is played so you start with the total number of deaths per year so for 2019 that was 169,301. Now what you do is take the number of days above average and the number of days below average which in itself is pretty funny metric. 2019 was 1st or 2nd hottest year according to the adjusted and sanitized BOM figures.
So now every person who died on those above average days died from the heat so there was about 9.74% of days above average …. so 9.74% of the 169,301 people who died was due to heat.
0.0974 * 169301 = 16489 people
More humour 66% of deaths in Australia for 2019 were over 75 but age isn’t a contributing factor according to that report.
Welcome to Climate Science(tm)
majority are in spots with NO POWER to run aircon or heating I see
as for 2300 in aus
homeless poor n elderly who cant AFFORD to own or run aircon but even then I call BS on the numbers
These numbers must be completely made up. Their US numbers are 173,600 annual deaths while the CDC WONDER database of underlying cause of death has 23,614 total deaths from 1999 through 2019. That seems to be quite a difference. I looked at causes X30 ((Exposure to excessive natural heat (hyperthermia)) and X31 (Exposure to excessive natural cold (hypothermia)). Even if they included earthquakes, floods and other natural disasters and exposure to man-made heat sources the number only goes to 32,132.
A gunshot wound, fall from high place ect. check for Covid19.
A simplified view of Fossil Records prove more deaths from cool climates than hot climates by mass extinction events. While volcanic and massive meteors follow as second and third respectively for mass extinction at localized areas, they attribute to a global cooling event by the aerosols blocking solar radiation. When Hothouse conditions existed in the past all lifeforms increased from the equator to the poles and lower elevations to the higher elevations. As Icehouse conditions came as Glacial Maximums extinctions occurred from the poles to the equator and from the higher elevations to the lower elevations. Species that could travel as climate changed were able to survive better than those that couldn’t (flora) or wouldn’t (territorial fauna).
Humans are the most adaptive of all species of fauna, that has learned to live in all climates when they use the modern technology of their time. That most “climate related mortalities” could be reduced – the infirm will always be high risk and make up the majority of these death’s – by having more electricity and fossil fuels available in these higher mortality rated countries is apparent, as are the governments that control those utilities and sources apparently the cause and effect by not allowing them and/or creating high cost.
This is a Eurika! alert. The ! is a warning that the results are over blown.
Pulling random deaths associated with high temperatures is not a quantitative measure. It’s an opinion.
Much other research points to economic well being is the best measure to explain the connections between death rates and temperature.
Nobody really lives in Death Valley so the only folks that die there had some sort of accident. Nob0dy dies of cold in Antarctica because nobody ever gets to make a mistake except by accident.
Fractional death rates caused by heat are easy to reduce by a better standard of living. The possibility that that small temperature increases may cause be better addressed by higher standards of living, not trying to shut down the world economy to try and reduce “global warming”.
The “Climate Scare” is a stalking horse for the United Nations started by the United Nations Environment Program started in 1972 by a Canadinan oil millionaire, Maurice “human caused” global warming. Surprise! They’ve been able to find it, after millions of dollars expended.
Well, they didn’t get them with Covid, so back to climate change
52000 is probably due to the cold and seniors who cam not afford constant heating, no way is it the heat I can confirm that, as england is never hot long enough for anything to die.. I wonder if Al gores private Jet use or Leonardo DiCaprios Use of diesel powered yachts helped the planet heat up?
Just watching sky new Uk, they are talking about the Perma frost melting in Siberia, John Kerry said we have 100 days to save the planet, and a “scientist” on the show said we need to cut carbon, he mentioned the USA and UK but not india and china… This post states people are dying from the cold, yet they are saying Denmark is 3 degrees hotter. How did life survive before both arctics froze?