Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
June 24, 2021
Incredible Temperatures Are Being Predicted and Confidence Is Now High That It Will Occur
There are two possibilities:
- The Northwest will soon experience one of the most incredible weather situations in many decades
- There is a major flaw in virtually all of our weather prediction system
Quite frankly, I am somewhat in shock looking at the raw forecast model predictions or the statistically calibrated versions of their output. The event being predicted is so extreme and so beyond expectation that my natural inclination is to dismiss it.
But I can’t. Multiple modeling systems are essentially doing the same thing. Large ensembles of many forecasts are showing similar solutions from most of the runs.
Let me show you the latest.
An important issue will be proximity to water and to get that right, high-resolution forecasts are important, so let me start by presenting the latest UW high-resolution simulations. The situation is so extreme that I had the colors altered to better define high temperatures.
Saturday will be the transition day. The temperatures at 5 PM, near the time of the maxima, will exceed 100 F in much of the Columbia Basin and in the northern Willamette Valley (e.g. Portland). 90s will invade the interior of southwest Washington and southern Puget Sound. Warm, but typical of the hottest days of a typical year.
Sunday is something else. Temperatures in the Willamette Valley surge ABOVE 108F, as do the lower elevations of the Columbia Valley. Incredibly, some areas south of the Olympic Mountains get above 104. Can you imagine the temperature gradients near the coast… from the 60s to over 100F in a matter of a few miles? In central Puget Sound, temperatures will rise the 80s near the water to the upper 90s a few miles inland.
And now Monday at 2 PM. The model resolution is a bit less but the solution is absolutely amazing. Temperatures exceeding 108F will be found in and near the western Cascade foothills, thanks to the warming easterly flow descending the barrier. 104F and higher away from the water around Puget Sound. The Fraser River Valley will also be crazy warm.
If this forecast verifies virtually every major observing location in the western WA and Oregon interior will achieve their all-time temperature record. And several of these locations have observations that go back 70-120 years.
Later Monday, marine air will start to move in along the coast, resulting in Tuesday being a bit cooler west of the Cascade crest (see temperatures at 5 PM Tuesday below). But it will be showtime for the Columbia Basin where the model is going for temperatures OVER 112 F. It is not inconceivable that some locations in eastern Washington will tie or exceed the all-time temperatures record for the state (118F).
The highly skillful European Center model—absolutely different in every way (different data assimilation, different model, different developers)– is going for the same story.
For Sunday, 111F in Portland and 103 in Seattle.
And for Monday at 2 PM an earth-shaking 108F in Seattle. You can see the cooling (orange colors) moving in on Monday afternoon.
Let me say again: the ensembles of many forecasts show that this solution is the preferred one, with a high probability of verifying. The National Weather Service’s most advanced statistical postprocessing system (the National Blend of Models) that combines many forecasts in an optimal way is now going for 101F on Sunday and 104F on Monday at SeaTac Airport:
And at Portland: 101F on Friday, 105F on Saturday, 112 on Sunday, and 108F on Monday.
Finally, a number of people have asked about the role of global warming on this event. Is global warming contributing to this heatwave? The answer is certainly yes. Would we have had a record heatwave without global warming. The answer is yes as well.
Our region has warmed by up to 1-2F during the past fifty years and that will enhance the heatwave. Increasing CO2 is probably the biggest contributor to the warming
But consider that the temperature anomalies (differences from normal) during this event will reach 30-35F. The proximate cause of this event is a huge/persistent ridge of high pressure, part of a highly anomalous amplification of the upper-level wave pattern.
There is no evidence that such a wave pattern is anything other than natural variability (I have done research on this issue and published in the peer-reviewed literature on this exact topic).
So without global warming, a location that was 104F would have been 102F. Still a severe heat wave, just slightly less intense.
Let me end with the golden rule of temperature extremes: the bigger the temperature extreme the SMALLER the contribution of global warming. Think about that.
Now PLEASE do not send me emails or leave comments accusing me of helping “deniers” or calling me all kinds of names. I had enough of this from 350Seattle activists and Charles Mudede of the SeattleStranger. I have spent my life working on weather prediction and studying Northwest weather and am trying to communicate the best science, whether or not it fits some folks’ political agendas.
_________________________________________________
The New Edition of My Book: The Weather of the Pacific Northwest Will be Available in August
The book includes new chapters on the meteorology of Northwest wildfires and the weather of British Columbia, and the rest of the book is greatly enhanced. It is available for pre-order on Amazon.
Just in case, you might want to have a sweatshirt handy.
I would much prefer sweat shirt weather than the cold I am now experiencing here, and I believe most people do.
We had below normal temps in Seattle for about six weeks in April and May.
The west facing front range of the Cascades still has visible pockets of snow, which is VERY unusual for late June.
Regardless, this heat wave will be brutal, since Seattle is the LEAST air conditioned large city in the USA.
There was snow on many ridges of Northern California into early May. That is the latest date for snow on the ground in at least the last decade. I moved here 10 years ago.
Possibly related to this change is that the Himalayas are a bit colder than on average this season. Note the section in the northwest which is still frozen. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=94.20,30.30,1685
Yeah, turn up the airconditioner setting.
Some people are acting like 108F is overwhelmig, or something.
How long is this heatwave going to last? Three days? Five days? Oh, the Humanity!
So. In summary. It is summer and it is going to be hot. It may or may not reach previous record temperatures.
why would anyone bother to write this weather story?
Click bait.
Agree…from personal experience, Ephrata on the high plateau: H0t,Hot,Hot!!! (Don’t even get me started about extreme drought conditions in the desert SouthWest!)
“And several of these locations have observations that go back 70-120 years.”
So, not very long.
Seems the definition of a heatwave has changed over the last few years, I’m sure when I last looked ,a heatwave was 4 days above a average temperature for a given area, now uk its been reduced to three days and the usa two days .
Hey get with the program, the BBC now has a heat wave declared if it gets warm for a day.
Had the log burner on to keep us warm here in central UK this week, at the height of summer and the longest day of the year.
I am now in the habit of carrying my winter fleece in the car when I go out just in case. This year has been ridiculously cold here, my strawberries have not ripened and people are still worrying about meeting up in doors because some cold virus might get them.
Welcome to panic central, or England as we used to be known.
I think we all know the BBC think a heatwave is called on any day its warm, my point is a heatwave was defined as 4 days now the met Office has redefined this as three. I to live in the UK, I to use woodburners, I to will be defying the ban when it comes ,England got of lightly .
Okay B Clarke, one case of misspelling “too” could be because of a typo. Thrice means you don’t know the difference between “to” and “too” (and probably “two” as well). Oh yes, you also can’t spell “off” and have trouble knowing when to use a comma or a period.
UK schools must be a dismal failure.
Ask me if I’m bothered, I never went to school , we ” had to work down pit from 8 ” unlike you usa types who don’t grow up till your 30 .
Now it’s a couple hrs in the afternoon. Or even a minute while during hot weather a stadium full of people watching a sports event do “the wave”.
Talking of afternoons ,its 15.15 pm just had a blast in the car ,11.c thats just not right for the end of June.
Because it is a record heat wave, people will die, this is part of a continuing pattern, it is climate change
Griff, do you know how many people died in Texas in February following the record cold wave and the inadequate energy supply reserves state policies caused?
Grifter doesn’t really care about actual lives. Pointing out facts such as how winter deaths are FAR greater than summer deaths makes no difference to him/her/it — same as with his marxist comrades.
Griff doesn’t care about facts, he avoids them like a cat avoids carrots. He’s paid to talk trash and divert the conversation. There are no facts in Griff’s trash.
Do you think more people will die this year at 104 degrees than did 60-80 years ago at 102 degrees?
My guess is that with twice or more population, far fewer will die due to heat, thanks to air conditioning and reliable energy.
Did you read the part where it said the more extreme the weather the LESS it is due to climate change?
Fewer people will die in PDX because of the heat than the last time we hit 107F. A LOT more people have AC then did then. Almost no one had AC in their homes back then, because MOST of the time when it got hot night temperatures dropped into the low 60s. I remember that last time well. There just wasn’t a market for AC back then.
<sigh> the odds of someone dying from this is pretty small. It gets hotter than this regularly in Vegas and other places. This is a short event that MAY take some people by surprise and they do something stupid in this heat. BUT that is why you say – don’t do stupid things.
Record heat waves are not uncommon – nor are record cold spells. This would/could happen even if all temperatures around the planed were FALLING.
Do not confuse isolated weather incidents with the average temperature rising. It is one of the items about people who tout the dangers of ‘Climate Change’ and cause me to lose confidence in them and instead label them as ignorant.
Have we detected an increase in temperature from the mean. Of course we have. Is it all attributable to CO2 – no. Is some of it – yeah based on what we can tell. Is it something to be worried about? Probably not anytime soon, and in fact will most likely make the planet better inhabitable for people.
Will there be winners and losers in it? Most likely. Could it change course at anytime – yes – will it anytime soon – maybe.
How did I arrive at this point of view. BY READING AND CRITICALLY THINKING.
Griff – you are overly on the “Its Climate Change” wagon. We change climate by building solar panels, by building windmills, by creating Urban areas, by agricultural land use, de-forestation, re-forestation, ranching, removing roaming herds of animals, watering yards, not watering yards, changing swamps into livable areas, etc and so on.
No one has managed to show me that ‘Climate Change’ where the earth gets slightly warmer is a BAD thing. They have shown that it ‘CHANGES’ things but if you think of it as progressing toward a more habitable planet doesn’t it make you feel better?
Be the ‘Progressive’ that I know you are. Change is good right? Or are you a ‘Conservative’ after all?
I know I got a little snarky at the end but I am just tired of the lack of Critical Thinking that promulgates the world today.
How many people have even QUESTIONED is a warmer planet maybe a better planet? Almost none, then you see NASA say that they should be looking for a world that is slightly warmer than ours because it would be better able to sustain life.
SERIOUSLY?!?! And people just are like – oh yeah that sounds great. But they do not think of the irony that our own world is colder than it should be to adequately sustain life.
Whatever. Griff I do not know who you are but honestly you seem fixated on the negative.
“Do not confuse isolated weather incidents with the average temperature rising.”
Especially when it is *not* rising.
The U.S. has been in a temperature downtrend since the 1930’s.
The U.S. is about 1.2C cooler now than at the hottest point in th 1930’s. So “rising temperatures” are relative. They relate to what period of time is being referenced, and if we want accurate understanding of our current situation, then we need to go back in history a little bit farther than 1979 (satellite temperature reading begins). Go back to the 1930’s and the whole picture changes. Instead of a warming trend, we see we are actually in a cooling trend. We are not currently experiencing unpredecented warming, contrary to Alarmist claims.
It hasn’t happened Griff. Wait for reality.
Griff
I live in the Australian tropics, and you make me smile.
So people like you could read it? But then I’m not sure you actually read it.
Let’s come back on Monday and discuss it.
I see nothing wrong with any of this, at least insofar as weather forecasts are concerned. Leaving aside the short record, we’re going to be well over 100 degrees in this region, starting Saturday afternoon. If that’s not a weather story, nothing is.
My take is that Cliff Mass is part of the propaganda machine hyping the hottest evah BS.
Let’s see the evidence as of Sunday night.
Rich, you don’t seem to read very well considering your unwarranted attack on Cliff Mass. It is a fact that the world has warmed about 2 F since the 1950s and Cliff did not say it was caused by Mankind.
“It is a fact that the world has warmed about 2 F since the 1950s”
It’s not a fact, because we’re not measuring “global temperature”, there’s no such thing. Averaging temperature readings from different locations is meaningless, utterly. The fact is, we don’t know.
I believe the world has warmed about 0.6c since 1950 about 1f
😉
https://wattsupwiththat.com/global-temperature/
Portland has possibly warmed by one degree F since 1981 and more since 1965. It’s average high might even be warmer than when it hit 107 F downtown in 1942. However it was warmer in the 1930s when my dad was a lad there than the 2010s.
According to whom and based on what? The World” is a very big place and has relatively few measuring stations … especially in critical places like the oceans, most of the Southern Hemisphere, Canada and Russia, not to mention the rest of the Arctic. I’m betting this planet hasn’t even warmed 1 degree F since 1950. It’s all guessing and averaging interpolations of other averages.
Cliff actually decribed the temperature trend as the last 50 years, which would put his trend beginning in the 1970’s, not the 1950’s.
He needs to start his trend in the 1930’s, to get a clear picture of the situation as far as warming and cooling go.
I’ve seen regional charts Cliff has posted in the past which went back to the 1930’s, and Cliff plainly stated those regions were in a temperature downtrend.
So why change the starting point for this article, would be my question.
I don’t think Cliff is a propaganda machine. I think he is just stating what he thinks. Most of it I agree with, and some of it I question, such as the beginning point of a long-term temperature trend, especially when we are dealing with regional tempertures which Cliff is obviously familiar with.
Rich, that was unwarranted. Perhaps you haven’t seen postings from Cliff Mass before. He’s an actual meteorologist, and not any kind of alarmist. This post is because he’s seeing forecasts using the current generation of models with interesting predictions of extreme high temperatures.
Current weather models are getting quite good. They work on local weather, not global, and give good projections for several days into the future. Unlike the GCMs, which try and predict weather on a global scale, for centuries into the future. What they actually predict is what they are programmed to predict, with tweaking the parameters to make sure they get the “right” answers.
Cliff does think CO2 will be a problem, in 50 to 100 years. I don’t see how that’s possible, considering the diminishing logarithmic returns of more CO2 in the atmosphere.
I’ve seen his postings here (or more accurately seen re-postings here of postings he made on his blog). I’ve never liked the guy. His attitude toward skepticism is similar to somebody being helped up after a fall in the street and saying don’t touch me with your filthy hands.
Not any kind of an alarmist? He says that the heat wave is definitely caused by human CO2 emissions, so there’s that.
You didn’t read too carefully. Is this a habit with you?
I see Dr. Mass as being a scientist who speaks his own mind, he isn’t a part of some propaganda, I live in the same state he lives in I know he is a good man from reading his materials over the years.
This heatwave is REAL, where I am the current predictions starting Saturday to Thursday are the following:
107, 111, 112, 113, 111, 109 Degrees F.
Tri-Cities Forecast LINK
They have always been good with summer predictions for many years, thus I am taking it seriously.
If this is accurate, my parents are older than half of these records: “And several of these locations have observations that go back 70-120 years.”
What I have written, I have written.
The tone is shrill and I just don’t like the guy. I think he’s basically an alarmist who got undeserved skeptic credibility by being attacked by people even more shrill. Now he’s trying to avoid the skeptic stink getting on him.
That’s still an option for me, to have an opinion?
To be clear, my point isn’t that there can’t be a heat wave. My point is that it is hyped as proof of CAGW and that oftentimes, we are seeing week-out predictions of extreme weather that never materialize or at least turn out to be greatly exaggerated. The objective is to create a drumbeat. People eventually internalize that it’s a fact that we’re constantly having heat waves, even when most of them are over-hyped and some of them never occur. We never see the same cast of characters predicting and hyping unusually cold weather, and that alone is enough for me to call it bias.
The original posting raised the idea that it will reach 120F/49C in Portland on Sunday. Things have dialed back from that.
This statement by Mass:
“Increasing CO2 is probably the biggest contributor to the warming”
is evidence supporting your conclusion, Mr. Davis.
There is no data to support that assertion. None.
Therefore, it isn’t science.
It is pure speculation.
Because Mass characterizes this speculation as “science,” he appears to be intentionally promoting the human CO2 propaganda campaign.
”There is no data to support that assertion. None.”
Well there is data to support it but there is also data to support that shark attacks increase with increased use of ice-cream.
You have picked up on the exact reason why I made the comment, Janice.
I’m tracking this personal weather station and 5 day history hourly: on the Columbia east of Portland .
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KORCORBE24
You can track mine too. We live above the Columbia 70 miles east of Portland. The temp on the river is typically 5-7 degrees higher than it is here. As of 2:20 p.m. Friday, we’re at 88 degrees, which is 5 degrees cooler than the hot spell a little while back. Word is that Saturday and Sunday will be hotter.
https://tinyurl.com/snowdenbarn
OMG! Mt. Rainer will melt like a giant ice cream cone ! A 100ft wall of ice water will roll off it’s slopes all the way to the Seattle CHOP zone! Real wrath of Gaia kinda destruction. Dogs, cats, living together!
Such pretty dreams you have.
And the mountain lion shall lay down with the lamb.
100… 80… today, 60, brrr. Too hot. Too cold. Too wet. Do the modern science [climate] hustle.
Do it!
Doot doot doot da doot da doot doot doot,
Doot doot doot da doot da doot doot doot.
Do the Hustle!
The Climate Hustle!
Well whether forecast good or not. People should live on the beach.
So need low income housing on the beach.
Without murdering anyone, we built cheap ocean settlements in which anyone who
wants to live on the beach, can live on the beach.
No more worries of hot weather and phantom worries of sea level rise.
No forest fires because politicans are incompetent.
All that needed is being able to buy ocean area at reasonable price.
Venice Beach in California awaits you.
And the jet stream contribution is ????
Stream is loopy as heck .
I use an Android app “FlowX” which lets you select the model to use. None of them show any temps over 100 for Bellinghame (where I have relatives), I’ve been checking since I first heard of this. “NOAA GFS (FV3) 25km” shows a high of 85 Sunday and Monday. “CMD GDPS 15km” shows highs of 90 and 91. The others are similar.
I am really curious what they show in the next few days, and what reality brings.
Bellingham.
I hope you’re wrong but here in Montana we are scheduled for the low 100s with a slight respite into the high 90s beginning to build on Tuesday and continue on through the holiday weekend
This amazingly clever meteorologist may well be right – but so what?? It may well be the biggest heat wave in the last 50 years – but so what??
We are in a period of warming climate – but so what?? A minute portion of the warming may well be caused by rising CO2 levels – but so what??
Let us assess the situation in a couple of weeks.
Weather changes often, even every day & night!
Check the real weather conditions data record and discover really hot periods in the past, not unusual when compared over the long term.
It annoys me in Australia during summers when the evening television news presenter uses emotional descriptions of the day, like hottest ever, and I smile knowing that to create a false warming trend our BoM ignores the hot conditions before 1910 because the records would not support their warming propaganda public scare campaign, climate hoax.
Dennis your are correct.
For Melbourne, Australia alarmists predict hot days (over 35 deg C) will increase from 8 per year to 16 per year in 2050.
However, there were many years pre 1910 with more than 16 hot days.
Example 1898 with 26 days over 35 deg C
Yes, Waza,
The picture that speaks a thousand words:
http://www.geoffstuff.com/century_days_sydmelb.jpg
Geoff S
Not long ago I was handed a copy of the Special 100th Edition of a country district newspaper with one page for each year. I noted the several serious flooding periods and very hot periods including when birds fell exhausted from the sky.
That newspaper is from Kempsey in New South Wales on the coastal strip but a little inland from the ocean.
Will air- conditioner use crash the fragile grid?
Not in Oregon and Washington. The Utilities say that they have plenty of power to spare. Now if this heatwave had been in California (at 40deg above normal like it is forecasted here) that would be a different story.
Oh, you’re talking Fahrenheit I guess, but if 100 or 105 is 40F above your normal, you’re saying that normal is a high of 60-65F in late June? What an unpleasant climate. A bit of warming is in order.
How I miss my old friend Steven Mosher, who would have often commented on climate topics like this, but has now gone fairly silent. Mosh, we miss you.
However, advertisers in my Melbourne region are heavily into promotion of MOSH. In this case, “Mens’ Online Sexual Health.” (They do not know how to use the plural possessive apostrophe, though Steven does.) Geoff S
I don’t miss his drive-by abuse. His posts of substance were extremely rare.
And Geoff’s account of Mosh’s punctuation skill is what I like to call “inventive memory”! Let’s not even think about his capitalization!
this is very informative
thankyou for spending time to layout the situation clearly
I hope you have a lucky cool change and don’t get exposed to such extremes
drink plenty of water and stay in a shady but breezy place if possible
Off topic. Robert Felix has passed away. Many of you will recall Robert’s posts from the Ice Age Now blog.
Cause of death is unknown, but his (perhaps) final post alluded to the rapid onset of an unknown ailment that was sapping his strength and mobility.
RIP Robert Felix
My heart breaks right now. I loved his blog. He will be missed. Thank you for the updates.
If they are right or close they are heroes.
If they are wrong it will be Trump’s fault!
What Cliff Mass is relying on are WEATHER models, not Climate models. Generally weather models work reasonably well. Highest Washington State Temperature was 118 deg. F in 1928, repeated in 1961. Oregon record is 119 deg. F in 1898. We will see if either of both states join the 3 states that have all time high temperature records set in this century.
I consider Cliff Mass a pretty straight shooter. He does believe in climate models but gets himself in trouble when he sees claims by media and politicians that attribute weather, fire, ocean acididification, etc. to climate change when there is no actual science to support it.
Local heat and cold extremes are nothing new .
Just had a polar vortex in Australia with the coldest June day in 126 years.
Crickets.
We have also had a couple of really warm years.
If we were a “stable “climate the longer we keep records the more likely they are to be broken in either direction.
We had near 40 days of 40 C in Northern Victoria in 1981. Nothing like that since.
Best of luck Washington.
Pendleton in Oregon recorded the highest ever temperature of 119°F (48.3°C) on August 10, 1898, while Seneca recorded the coldest temperature of -54°F (-47.8°C) on February 10, 1933.
–
Ooops that was 3 centuries ago.
Not many decades.
Please ignore.
I’m putting in a formal request for max 25C every day here in calgary, sunny 6 days with 1” of rain on Wednesday.
Repeat.
I want to know my mandated personal CO2 contribution required to achieve this.
If CO2 is the knob that controls the climate I wish to be in charge.
All hail.
”Let me end with the golden rule of temperature extremes: the bigger the temperature extreme the SMALLER the contribution of global warming. ”
A nice adage. Make sure CNN and BBC hear it.
Surely that is gonna create the most massive convection as Pacific wet air gets sucked in and punched up into the stratosphere?
Actually not. The water temperature is too cold (58F as of this morning) to put enough moisture in the air to cause any action when it gets heated to those insane temperatures. When it gets this hot in the PACNW, the persistent summer low clouds over the coastal waters and beaches dissipates.
The high temperatures in the NW US if it happens will be from high UV index due to clear skies today days after the solstice. These UV alert forecast and UV map links update daily:
High UVI in the SW will lead to southern hot air building north too.
Interestingly, one sees more of such extreme synoptic pressure setups when the globe is in cooling mode with wavier jet stream tracks and increased global cloudiness.
In this case timing and wind direction are also important because we have the sun at maximum power this time of year and the effect is magnified by downslope warming in the easterly flow.
There is some truth in that. Philidelphia got its all-time February high temperature (I think it was 73F) in the early 1800’s during the Little Ice Age.
I am in Moscow right now.
It is hot like hell here. All all-time records have been broken for three days in a row, and it is still heating up!
Yesterday I was in a train and the outside temperature was measured at 43C. All previous temperature records for the previous 145 years here were around +33C.
This heatwave IS incredible!
It would be handy to have some figures to quantify the historical accuracy of the forecasts.