The Greatest Heat Wave In (US) Northwest History?

Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog

The meteorological community is all abuzz about the forecast this weekend:  several of the global models are predicting an extraordinarily unusual heatwave this weekend in the Pacific Northwest.

A heatwave so extreme that many locations might experience their warmest temperature on record.  

For any day.  For any year.  And doing so in late June, which is not the usual time for the great temperature records.

Waves are the reason for this heatwave

But there is something else…there is great uncertainty in this forecast and what happens will depend on weather events over the western Pacific during the next few days.

Let me show you… the forecasts are simply insane.

To start, here are the forecast temperatures for 5 PM Sunday based on the excellent European Center model.   As high as 121F in the northern Central Valley of California, 113 and 115 in the Columbia Basin, and 104-105 in the Willamette Valley.  Only around 90F near Seattle.

Monday afternoon, Portland is predicted to get to 109F, and 121F is forecast near the Oregon/WA border.

The U.S. model the GFS is also going for extraordinary warmth in the region.  A “plume” forecast plot for Seattle is shown below with the high-resolution prediction (blue line) and an ensemble of many lower-resolution simulations indicated.
For  Monday, the high-resolution run gets to 111F in SEATTLE (the highest on record is 103F); it appears to be an outlier:  most of the ensemble forecasts (gray lines) are cooler, with their mean (black line} only reaching 90F.  

The UW high-resolution forecast system is going for 110F in Seattle and 120F in Portland (see below).  Simply mind-boggling

This is so nuts I can’t believe it.
The origin of this potential heatwave is a huge, high amplitude ridge of high pressure aloft  (see the forecast for 11 AM Sunday.   It would represent the strongest ridge in history for our region.

What is the origin of this ridge?  It appears to be forced by a tropical disturbance in the western Pacific that moves northward until it interacts with the jet stream, resulting in a series of downstream waves.  Sort of like deflecting a long rope and having all kinds of waves propagating away.  
The forecast of upper-level flow (around 30,000 ft)  over the Pacific shows the waviness developing (see below).  Think of the lines as pressure and the shading telling you how unusual the winds are.  Wind barbs are also indicated.
On Tuesday morning,  the jet stream is relatively straight over the western Pacific and a weak disturbance is moving northward (indicated by an arrow)

By June 24th, the jet stream has started to buckle, with major waviness over the north Pacific.

And by the 26th, the wave has amplified into a huge ridge over our region

But here is the thing.  These kinds of interactions between a tropical disturbance and the jet stream are very finicky.  Slight changes in the amplitude of the disturbance and where it hits the jet stream can result in major changes in the creation and motion of the jet stream waves.
This produces a great deal of uncertainty.   By Wednesday, it all should settle down and we should have more confidence in the forecast.
My own evaluation from looking at a wide range of forecast guidance is that Seattle northwards will escape the worst of this, with temperatures only rising into the mid-90s, but Portland, the Willamette Valley, and the Columbia Basin will experience historical, extraordinary high temperatures.

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June 23, 2021 6:03 am

Temperatures all in F, I am not doing a conversion. I have no idea how much hotter 121F is over 109F,

Reply to  Pauleta
June 23, 2021 9:16 am

109F in Portland? I forecast thunder storms and rioting, not necessarily in that order


Rich Davis
Reply to  tonyb
June 23, 2021 2:32 pm

It’s great to have these extremist predictions documented on WUWT. Very important to make sure that the actual outcome is recorded and discussed. When this doesn’t remotely come to pass, will there be anybody asking why we’re getting exaggerated predictions?

While it is always possible to get unusual weather, it seems to be a pretty common event lately that the propaganda organs push out wild claims of unprecedented heat that end up being more like a UK heatwave in the upper teens. Nobody calls them on it, and the repetition of the predictions train people to imagine that we had an unusually hot month.

We’re a few days past the summer solstice folks. It’s supposed to be hot. But 49C in Portland Oregon? No, I’m going to go way out on a limb and preemptively call Barbara Streisand on that one.

Joel Snider
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 23, 2021 9:01 pm

I live in Portland. I’ll let you know.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Joel Snider
June 24, 2021 5:49 pm

Please do.

Three days out, already has Portland dialed back to a high of 111F/44C on Sunday. Still highly unlikely if you ask me.

Thomas Burk
Reply to  Pauleta
June 23, 2021 9:18 am

It is 12 degrees F hotter.

Reply to  Thomas Burk
June 23, 2021 10:11 am

Thanks for the laugh. Or you could say 6.666666667 C hotter.

Last edited 1 year ago by beng135
Reply to  Pauleta
June 23, 2021 9:38 am

A quick conversion is to subtract 30, then divide by 2. (While not entirely accurate, it is close enough for typical temperate temperatures). To convert C to F, double then add 30. (Spot on for 10C, less accurate the further the temperature is from this value (50F)).

Bryan A
Reply to  Cal
June 23, 2021 10:42 am

Should be C x 1.8 + 32 = F
-40c x 1.8 = -72 + 32 = -40f
40 below C and 40 below F are the same
10c x 1.8 = 18 + 32 = 50f
20c x 1.8 = 36 + 32 = 68f
100c x 1.8 = 180 + 32 = 212f

Last edited 1 year ago by Bryan A
K. McNeill
Reply to  Pauleta
June 23, 2021 11:01 am


Reply to  Pauleta
June 23, 2021 11:13 am

Search: f to c
121 F = 49.44444 C
109 F = 42.7778 C

Search: F to K
121 = 322.5944 K
109 = 315.9278 K

Highest Air temp ever recorded:
134.1 °F = 329.8722 K
134.1 = 56.722222 C
The current official highest registered air temperature on Earth is 56.7 °C (134.1 °F), recorded on 10 July 1913 at Furnace Creek Ranch, in Death Valley in the United States.” – wiki

John Dueker
Reply to  Pauleta
June 23, 2021 11:33 am

To each his own. I find temperatures in C give me no clue how warm or cold it feels. I can understand what a 10F temperature change means but not 10C. C is good for measuring when water boils but ~70 years of Fahrenheit indoctrination is permanent.

Given the computational capabilities of the world now forcing the switch to a more scientific measurement basis is meaningless. The holier than thou enforcement of the metric system seems a waste of effort now. Just use you C to F or F to C button.

Blasphemy to everyone outside the US, unapologetic.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  John Dueker
June 23, 2021 12:54 pm

Blasphemy to everyone outside the US, unapologetic.

We just prefer to use a system that wasn’t designed by drunk mathematicians with wonky dice. Even the creators of the imperial measurements, the UK, have given it up as a bad deal.

Last edited 1 year ago by Zig Zag Wanderer
Rich Davis
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
June 23, 2021 2:55 pm

So, I’m a big fan of Celsius but on the other hand, Fahrenheit isn’t completely crazy. For the most part, in my part of the world, it spans the range of ordinary seasonal temperatures from 0 to 100. If you see a negative number or three digits, you know things are out of the ordinary. Also body temp is a bit under 100.

Why I prefer Celsius is that negative numbers indicate freezing, and thereafter it’s easy to think of 10 is cool, 20 is room temperature, 30 is warm, 40 is hot, 50 is ridiculous. It’s interesting enough that 100 is boiling water, but not particularly useful in a weather report.

The trick for the Fahrenheit-indoctrinated is to stop converting. Just evaluate against those standards.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 23, 2021 4:54 pm

But, subjectively, it isn’t really alarmingly cold until the moisture on the hairs in your nostrils freeze with your first breath outdoors. That happens at about -20 deg F.

Reply to  Clyde Spencer
June 23, 2021 10:44 pm

It happens in my part of the world at -15 (C), and that’s a warm winter day*

but we are used to having a few days per winter at -40 (F). ha!

I can confirm +30C is hot, and at +35C most Italians and Spanish shut up shop for the afternoon.

*In Russia +35C is quite normal for summer time, and -35C quite normal for winter.

In cities full of tarmac and concrete, 35C is unbearable, while in far off Nice/Cannes, it’s quite OK thanks to a sea breeze.

Anton Eagle
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
June 23, 2021 7:22 pm

There are two kinds of countries…

…those that use the metric system… and those that have put a man on the moon.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Anton Eagle
June 23, 2021 9:10 pm

You think there’s a causal relationship there?

Truth is we’re so great that we voluntarily burden ourselves with unwieldy measurement systems, just to make it fair to the lesser countries!

Reply to  Rich Davis
June 23, 2021 11:07 pm

Metric is for morons that can’t handle fractions or anything more complicated than 2+2.

What’s half of 7/8? Metrics boys implode.

Nick Graves
Reply to  Ruleo
June 24, 2021 12:24 am

AF or Whitworth..?

2 + 2 is apparently Raycis, so we must all now use adjustable spanners (or Monkey Wrenches in Fahrenheit)

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Ruleo
June 24, 2021 10:08 am

Imperial is much more easy to divide by various numbers.

Hoyt Clagwell
Reply to  Anton Eagle
June 24, 2021 1:39 pm

I work for a global company so I have to use both. I find that the standard system that I grew up with is completely irrational. You start with the inch, which is divided into quarters, eighths, sixteenths, so on. Then you have the foot, which is divided into 12 instead of 8. Next is the yard, which is divided into 3. The next increment is the mile! 5,280 feet for some reason. To measure things between a yard and a mile we use terms like “a football field”, a “boxcar”, or “a stone’s throw”. Then you have to try converting any of these into the decimal system. What is half a stone’s throw in decimals?

Rich Davis
Reply to  Hoyt Clagwell
June 24, 2021 5:57 pm

My favorite units for density would be stones per cubic furlong, although grains per gill is also appealing.

Brian R
Reply to  John Dueker
June 23, 2021 1:24 pm

C is good for measuring when water boils…”

Accept water does not boil at 100C where I live. It boils at about 97C. If I went higher into the mountains the boiling point drops even further.

What good is a measurement system if one of the things that defines it isn’t fixed?

Rich Davis
Reply to  Brian R
June 23, 2021 3:00 pm

How relevant? I suppose you also imagine that body temperature is precisely 98.6? Of course that’s just an overly-precise conversion of a rough estimate 37C.

How does your complaint not apply equally to Fahrenheit?

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Brian R
June 24, 2021 10:07 am

Accept water does not boil at 100C where I live.”

Why should I accept that? Oh, you meant “except”?

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Pauleta
June 23, 2021 4:50 pm

I have no idea how much hotter 121F is over 109F,

12 deg F

Subjectively, 109 is tolerable. I have discovered that when driving in a car without A/C, keeping the windows down seems to help until it gets to about 110 deg F. After that, it feels better to roll the windows up.

Matthew Sykes
Reply to  Pauleta
June 24, 2021 1:44 am

Think of the human body temp, 100 F is about 38 C, anything over that is a fever.

June 23, 2021 6:05 am

In the meantime it is relatively cold over Colorado/Wyoming in points east and even over the SE US. Where it is hot in one place it will be cold in another, and if someone hasn’t noticed, it is the summer solstice in the northern hemisphere. It actually does get hot this time of year.

Reply to  rbabcock
June 23, 2021 6:17 am

Cheyenne WY (June 25th: Forecast high: 63F Avg High: 79F -16F)
Portland OR (June 25th: Forecast high: 95F Avg High: 75F +20F)

P Wells
Reply to  rbabcock
June 23, 2021 5:33 pm

Seems to me I was just reading about record cold in Antarctica – cold enough to freeze CO2.

Barry Moore
Reply to  rbabcock
June 23, 2021 6:27 am

Yeah in the southeast this summer has been tremendously cool. Hell its been a little cold from my perspective at night.

Joe Wagner
Reply to  rbabcock
June 23, 2021 6:40 am

A high of 76 today in the Washington DC area. Very much on the low side.

David Kamakaris
Reply to  Joe Wagner
June 23, 2021 7:06 am

A high of 75 in Virginia Beach, a little south of you. A/C is off & the windows are wide open letting in a cool Seabreeze. Loving it!

Bill Powers
Reply to  Joe Wagner
June 23, 2021 8:21 am

Currently my “Smart”phone is registering 67 degrees at 11:15 AM. The “Normal” should be in the 90’s this date and time. The weather man will be telling the audience come dinner time that the temperature was “below average” for the day. The Washington Post won’t write about anything unusual with the temps until the WEATHER shifts and they can say “it is unseasonably hot and it is due to man made climate change.”.

G Mawer
Reply to  Bill Powers
June 23, 2021 1:19 pm

I read a headline saying we may break a 120 year old record!! Hey wait, it was that hot back then. So much for man made climate change.

Komerade Cube
Reply to  Bill Powers
June 23, 2021 6:04 pm

Its 63 degrees f in Central NJ at 9:00 pm

Reply to  rbabcock
June 23, 2021 7:26 am

The summer solstice is not the hottest time in the northern hemisphere. There’s a lag of several months.

Reply to  Felix
June 23, 2021 8:29 am

You mean several weeks.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Felix
June 23, 2021 8:29 am

Here in Ottawa Canada, the temp April to end of June has been 7 to 10C below average
(-13F to -18F). The west end of Ottawa had a frost in late May and in the city lows still go down single digits °C (~45F). This is our year without a summer.

Felix, you are generally correct, but this year there is no serious heat going into the ground in most of Canada and much of the US. (Our city tap water is nice and cold to drink). Here after August 20th there tends to be a noticeable step down in temperatures. I’m forecasting a cool fall and bitter cold winter this year for us.

mark from the midwest
Reply to  Felix
June 23, 2021 9:03 am

Not on average, but it’s common to get some very hot days in late June and early July at latitudes above 44N since the sun is right over the top.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  mark from the midwest
June 23, 2021 9:49 am

same in New England

Climate believer
Reply to  mark from the midwest
June 23, 2021 1:00 pm

Flaming June

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  mark from the midwest
June 24, 2021 10:11 am

I’ve been living in the Pacific Northwest for 20 years. Sometimes July 4th is hot and sunny, but most of the time it’s about 60f and drizzly, which isn’t typical for a PNW summer.

Bill Powers
Reply to  Felix
June 23, 2021 9:15 am

Where i live, in the Mid-Atlantic, the summer solstice is “Normally: in the 90’s. We have had an extremely pleasant spring with comparatively low humidity, again unusual since it is typically in the high 80s/90s with high humidity. While July and early August can surpass 100 degrees, for the most part it hovers in the high 90s. Currently it is noon with a temperature outside my door of 68 degrees with an very pleasant 43% humidity. It has been a while since I can remember such a mild and pleasant spring here in the Mid-Atlantic but seasonal weather patterns seem to be affected by the Solar cycle more so than CO2 from fossil fuel consumption. Lets touch base again in late September to see how “dangerously” this Global Warming beats us down.

When the deep state creates a narrative of ever hotter irreversible global warming it really needs to be getting hotter, irreversibly on a global scale. Their hobgoblin skirt is showing.

Reply to  Bill Powers
June 23, 2021 10:19 am

Bone-dry air extending from the Arctic all the way down into the mid-Atlantic states.

Reply to  Felix
June 23, 2021 10:15 am

About a month.

Reply to  beng135
June 23, 2021 12:13 pm

But bone dry air carries less energy. CGW is based on more energy in the atmosphere? Not???

Reply to  Felix
June 23, 2021 11:13 am

The hottest time of the year varies for locations based on humidity. In the AZ desert with low humidity, the hottest temps are typically late June. In the southeast US the sun has to heat the water vapor first so the hottest temps are in August

Reply to  Alan
June 23, 2021 2:11 pm

In large part, that’s because in early July the Mexican monsoon rolls in and the clouds keep the temperature down.

paul courtney
Reply to  Felix
June 23, 2021 11:45 am

Mr. Felix: Mr. Babcock said “hot” not “hottest”.

Reply to  Felix
June 23, 2021 1:21 pm

It depends on your latitude in the northern hemisphere, but the hottest week is generally around mid-July for most people living there.

Reply to  rbabcock
June 23, 2021 7:52 am

I’m reminded every year by our local newspaper that it’s going to be hot this summer. Each year there’s a headline on the front page telling us to prepare for hot weather. Go figure.

Bill Powers
Reply to  Kevin
June 23, 2021 9:21 am

My cable company has gotten into the habit, probably thanks to Federal Bureaucrats and our overpaid Lawyers, of breaking into my Television viewing to “Warn” me of our thrice weekly evening thunderstorms as if they are protecting me. Of course those paying attention know that it is nothing more than subliminally implanting fear into our amygdala. One is to be left with the impression that Climate Change has made everything worse when in fact it is bureaucratic use of technology that has made things worse.

Reply to  Bill Powers
June 23, 2021 10:27 am

It’s all part of the nanny-state culture. We’re to be scared of everything/anything & hoping for the goobermint/our betters to save us.

Michael wood
Reply to  beng135
June 30, 2021 10:48 am

i call it the matriarchy. Thats how much things have changed. emotion over logic

Timo, not that one
Reply to  Bill Powers
June 23, 2021 10:54 am

Easy solution, stop watching television.

Reply to  Timo, not that one
June 24, 2021 3:43 am

We would be much better off without any Social Justice Networks. The best network (for weather too) is the back fence or on a barstool.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Kevin
June 23, 2021 9:50 am

They’re too stupid to write about anything else.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Kevin
June 23, 2021 3:11 pm

Public service announcements. Thank god we have these good Samaritans. Without them I would forget and keep wearing my wooly undergarments.

Strange though how they forget to warn us about winter.

mark from the midwest
Reply to  rbabcock
June 23, 2021 9:00 am

Here on the 45th parallel, shortest night of the year, we had frost. Even by Lake Michigan and Grand Traverse Bay it in dropped into the upper 30’s. Cool yesterday and today, and with repeated waves of showers coming in over the next week. Had to kick the furnace on for a couple minutes the last few mornings just to clear out the chill, but that should help in the long run since in 10 years it should be a good 0.3F warmer.

Reply to  rbabcock
June 23, 2021 12:28 pm

Down here in the sunny south (US), I had to put on a long sleeve shirt when going for my morning jog. Almost 15F cooler than average for this time of year.

Brian R
Reply to  rbabcock
June 23, 2021 1:29 pm

First day of summer, here in the Denver area, I was wearing a sweatshirt all day. In the 40 years of living here I don’t remember doing that ever.

David Hoopman
June 23, 2021 7:06 am

When the headlines start appearing, remember that in today’s usage, “unprecedented” can be defined as any event that has not previously occurred in at least 48 hours.

Bill Parsons
Reply to  David Hoopman
June 23, 2021 8:17 am

… 47, 46, 45…

Richard Patton
Reply to  David Hoopman
June 23, 2021 1:47 pm

The current forecasted temperatures (107F) occured 40 years ago in August. Even if the all time record falls so what? over the last 50 years PDX winters have gotten a tiny bit colder and wetter, and the summers a tiny bit hotter and drier, it all balances out.

Michael in Dublin
June 23, 2021 7:07 am

Please send us some of the hot air to Dublin, Ireland. We are in the middle of summer but with temperatures below average for months and the heatwave promised by our Met Eireann weeks overdue the growth of our vegetables are badly stunted.

Last edited 1 year ago by Michael in Dublin
Joe B
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
June 23, 2021 12:48 pm

” … our vegetables are badly stunted”.

This, Michael, is exactly what Dr. Valentina Zharkova has been pounding upon the table as what to expect over the next 20 years as the imminent Grand Solar Minimum continues to manifest.
Indeed, the increasing waviness of the jet stream – the cause of the extreme heat/cold noted in both the article (in the northwest) and throughout much of the rest of the US as several commentators have pointed out – is thought to be a consequence of the diminishing solar magnetic field reaching the earth.

We are way, WAY past the time to continue to give credence to these AGW idiots are start to focus on the demonstrable effects of the sun.

Thomas Gasloli
June 23, 2021 7:14 am

And all of Big Media will tell us this proves CO2 causes Climate Change when it is just weather and a comparison to a relatively brief written temperature record.

John Bell
June 23, 2021 7:18 am

OT a bit but the ads on WUWT are just full of Hillary Clinton’s face, Bill’s, Joel Osteen, very annoying, anyone else getting the same ads?

Jeffery P
Reply to  John Bell
June 23, 2021 7:32 am


IIRC, WUWT uses Google ads. The ads you see depend upon tracking data. it is customized to whatever the Google algorithm “thinks” you might like to see.

Try clearing your browser cookies. I always block third-party cookies, BTW

Reply to  John Bell
June 23, 2021 8:13 am

“anyone else getting the same ads?”

No, but I use Adblock+ & Ghost, haven’t seen an advert in 3 yrs; trackers, keyloggers & phishing sites are also stopped.

Reply to  John Bell
June 23, 2021 8:45 am

Darn, I’m only seeing the best posters of scantily clad Charlie’s Angels (Farrah Fawcett, etc.) and Linda Ronstadt from their heydays.

Reply to  Scissor
June 23, 2021 10:32 am

Poor you! Think of the “tremendous savings” you’re missing.

Reply to  John Bell
June 23, 2021 10:51 am

Do not happen to be
X rated ones by any chance?

Just asking.

Many ppl may just happen to be very interested… if that the case

Reply to  whiten
June 23, 2021 2:20 pm

For some reason I seem to get a lot of ads for women’s swim fashions

Reply to  TonyG
June 23, 2021 3:19 pm

Me too, up to some point… very tempting!
What do you think we both may be doing wrong… or right… there!

Reply to  whiten
June 23, 2021 3:26 pm

still got to do this, the simple apology to the wify;
love you for ever, please pardon my immaturity…

Still love you…. fingers crossed that you may just believe it …


YallaYPoora Kid
Reply to  TonyG
June 23, 2021 4:28 pm

It is a consequence of your surfing history haha

John Bell
June 23, 2021 7:19 am

I had to use my furnace this morning just north of Detroit, MI. too cold.

mark from the midwest
Reply to  John Bell
June 23, 2021 9:09 am


I’m in the ridge just east of Sleeping Bear, about 450-500 ft higher than Lake Michigan and we had light frost, shortest night of year

June 23, 2021 7:19 am

The pressure is on; but, can it be sustained for 30 years to set a climate record? To date, it has changed with the daily solar flux, reaching temperatures of 100 one day, and 70 the next.

Joe B
Reply to  n.n
June 23, 2021 12:53 pm

It is the increasing waviness of the jet stream that is causing these extreme, fluctuating weather patterns.
If, indeed, it is the lessening of the sun’s magnetic waves that is causing this, it will be another 20 years of these types of weather events.

Reply to  Joe B
June 27, 2021 3:49 am

Wow – I just said almost the same thing just now, then saw your reply after I posted it!
Don’t you think the meander will lessen a bit for the next 5 or so years as the sun’s activity increases again (before descending into a deeper low)?

Reply to  n.n
June 27, 2021 3:46 am

My understanding is that, as we’re just emerging from a solar minimum, the still cooler upper atmosphere compresses and therefore distorts the jet streams so that they meander – forcing hot weather from equatorial regeons to one side of a continent, and polar conditions to the other.
And for a bit of CACC promotion, why not play with a weather machine to spice it up a bit?

June 23, 2021 7:26 am

In the meantime I’m freezing my butt off on the Oregon coast. Brrr…

Richard Patton
Reply to  Bob Johnston
June 23, 2021 1:50 pm

Sorry Charlie but there is No relief in sight for you. The heat is supposed to stay east of the Coast Range.

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  Bob Johnston
June 23, 2021 10:07 pm

In future years, if someone asks if we remember the summer of 1993, the reply will be; “Remember it well. It was the afternoon of Sunday, July 18!”

Two southern Californians, volunteer Campground Hosts, US Forest Service Diamond Lake campground that year. Oregon Cascade mountains, 5,200 feet elevation.

It’s all weather, and records, high and low, are made to be broken.

At the moment, in an RV park just north of Parker, Arizona. It’s 10PM and I just turned the A/C off.

James Donald Bailey
June 23, 2021 7:29 am

I hate the use of superlatives with caveats.

I once read a description that read like, ‘the longest bridge, in the state of new york, built before 1940, using this technology’. details may be off, but who cares, with all those exceptions it surely wasn’t the longest bridge.

that is worse than having 1000 year floods every ten years.

even if true, there are enough restrictions in the claim that it should automatically generate a chorus of ‘so what’ responses.

Keith Van Ausdal
June 23, 2021 7:36 am

Why are we talking about weather on a climate site? Oh, because that is what alarmists do.

Reply to  Keith Van Ausdal
June 23, 2021 8:50 am

Sci site.

Kevin kilty
June 23, 2021 7:44 am

I appreciate the quick lesson in meteorology, Cliff. Any U.S. place can reach highest summer temperatures in any month between May and September. The highest temperatures I recall as a youth in the high plains occurred during June — some of the coldest occurred during June too.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Kevin kilty
June 23, 2021 10:51 am

Try laying in a rice paddy on a nighttime ambush during the Southeast Asia monsoon to perceive real cold conditions.

June 23, 2021 7:59 am

Kachelmann predicts
Temps in °C

Last edited 1 year ago by Krishna Gans
Ben Vorlich
June 23, 2021 8:29 am

It doesn’t matter whether this heat wave happens or not. A record temperature record will happen in some parking lot. But more importantly after a week of hyping on every news outlet around the world for 80% of the population 2021 will be the year of worst heatwave in Californian history

June 23, 2021 8:31 am

Having a lot of variability here in Colorado Springs. 2 – 4 days of highs in the low/mid 90s, then a few days with highs in the 60s/70s. The big thing I like is that we are getting periods of rain this year, and last winter, we had ample snow. When I had our house built in 2001, we were in an extreme drought. Luckily, I didn’t start putting in grass until 2003. During the winter of 2001/2002, we had no snow at all. We did have a mud storm though. And in the summer of 2002, we had almost no rain. Hopefully we won’t have any severe hail storms this year. BTW, western Colorado is not doing so well.

June 23, 2021 8:43 am

And yet the global temperature is down considerably from its high. Reading the papers, you would think that the temperatures in Portland are representative of world temperatures.

Just another attempt by the journalists to get their names attached to a headline. Doesn’t matter if it’s true or not.

Smart Rock
June 23, 2021 9:15 am

It’s become a distinct trend in the last few years -predicting “unprecedented” high temperatures in advance.

This allows the message to be emplaced solidly in the public mind, in case it doesn’t actually happen as predicted. The message reinforces the story line (“unprecedented heat – anthropogenic – climate crisis – tipping point – etc. etc.”) that needs constant refreshing.

We’re also starting to see “news” telling us (a) 2021 is the hottest year ever (even though we’re not half way through it) and (b) permanent drought is here to stay this time (again?)

June 23, 2021 9:28 am

weather alert. ok it will be below normal for the majority of the country….

June 23, 2021 9:36 am

PG&E has scolded me to NOT run my air conditioner and to only use “off peak” electricity (when I don’t need it).

I thought PG&E’s mission was to PROVIDE energy to the people of N.CA? Why is my monopolistic Energy Corp. telling me I can’t have energy? How about PG&E shut the hell up and build more power plants so they can provide CHEAP … PLENTIFUL energy!?

Yes. Of course I know why they don’t

Dave Fair
Reply to  Kenji
June 23, 2021 10:55 am

PG&E is a regulated utility and will, therefore, do exactly what the politicians and Deep State operatives tell it; nothing more, nothing less. Been there, done that, got the cheap jacket.

June 23, 2021 10:00 am

“… on record…”

June 23, 2021 10:04 am

Hmm. Overnight low here in the US mid-Appalachians last night was 43F. (6C) Near record cold for the date & have had similar cold several times recently.

June 23, 2021 10:44 am

Heat wave, huh? Over the Midwest? Not particularly unusual. We just had some rain in my AO, and there is plenty more down in the dornfields far to the south of me. so the corn may grow like Topsy and have a higher-than-usual sugar content, which provides MORE high fructose corn syrup for the food products industry. Wheat may grow like Topsy, too.
We’ve had it too chill up here in my AO, and grasses in the forest preserves are a bit behind their normal height and volume BECAUSE IT’S BEEN CHILLY, WILLY!!!!!

Is it too much to ask there people who publish these prognostications to spend some time in the REAL world, instead of at a desk with a computer on it?

Geezo Pete, what my Aunt Vash might say about this stuff. She lived on a farm in what is politely called Niobrara river bottom farmland. Every summer, the corn there was so tall and thick she said her kids could camp out there and catch fireflies all night, and they never went hungry.

Hot weather? BRING IT!!!!!

Richard Patton
Reply to  Sara
June 23, 2021 10:42 pm

It isn’t the forecasters who are trying to get people prepared who are the problems, it is the idiots who use unusual weather to further their political agenda, usually meaning less freedom for the rest of us.

June 23, 2021 10:53 am

But will it make any difference to the long term global average? As far as that is concerned, we are still in a long term Pause of any averaged global increase since the 2015/16 El Nino step. Records are made to be broken, and we haven’t even been keeping accurate track for a 100 years or less, if accuracy is to be believed. So it gets hot in a small location in North America, all the while it is below normal somewhere else, usually on the other side of the continent if the jet stream is ‘wavy’. So what…I have been noticing that for 50 years.

K. McNeill
June 23, 2021 11:00 am

Unusually warm here on the 49th parallel, it usually rains in the last week of June when all the kids have their end of year sports days. No sports days this year due to Covid so it didn’t rain. Did anyone else notice the little lizard face at5N 160E in the last map or is it just my overactive imagination?

June 23, 2021 11:10 am

As a teenager in southeastern Washington State, I remember temperatures around 115 F during the first week of August in 1961.

John Dueker
June 23, 2021 11:14 am

Portland going to 109F couldn’t happen to a more deserving city. Will it be too hot for antifa to dress in their trademark black mummy suits? Doubtful because they are afraid to show their face.

Since Mike Schmidt the do nothing about rioters DA won’t slow the violence down maybe heat stroke will.

Richard Patton
Reply to  John Dueker
June 23, 2021 10:43 pm

We can always hope.

Forrest Baker
June 23, 2021 11:45 am

Here in Utah we are getting the hot/dry end of the climate this past year. No water. And currently 10+ degrees F hotter than normal ( + 5.5 C ). I am hoping for rain soon. Dry and HOT. BUT this is probably to make up for 2 years ago when it barely hit 90 all summer ( currently pushing 100+ this summer )

June 23, 2021 1:37 pm

Read “Unsettled” by Steven Koonin to have all this factually explained. Very good book.

June 23, 2021 3:46 pm

Checked the local weather … hi 80s, one day may get to 90.
This is my hysterical, OMG, the-Earth-is-DOOMED!!! face.

June 23, 2021 4:03 pm

Good news!
CA bureaucrats have solved the problem of not producing enough power & it’s really simple – don’t charge your electric cars at night.

June 23, 2021 5:12 pm

Earth is getting colder due to low solar activity, just as we correctly predicted in 2002.The catastrophic global warming fraud is coming to an end. Even the most delusional people will realized they have been duped when they are freezing and their gardens are dead, due to extreme unseasonal cold events. CO2 does NOT drive climate.
Low solar activity at the end of SC24 causes instability in the jet stream, allowing cold arctic air to flow much further south, and sometimes causing warm tropical air to flow north. This happened at the end of strong SC23 and is happening even more so at the end of very-weak SC24.
By Allan M.R. MacRae, May 8, 2021 UPDATE 1e
Download the WORD file
This treatise was originally sent to Canadian and American politicians and the media in March 2021. Most of them won’t understand it, because they have no scientific competence and have been utterly duped – programmed for decades by false climate scares and green energy frauds.
This update was written in May 2021 to report even more global cooling as measured by satellites and new harsh cold events, particularly in Europe and North America that have severely harmed early crops. Harsh cold events have struck all countries in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.


We published in 2002 that there was NO catastrophic human-made global warming /climate change crisis, and green energy schemes were NOT green and produced little useful (dispatchable) energy. Dangerous global warming and climate change have NOT HAPPENED and green energy schemes have proved to be COSTLY, UNRELIABLE AND INEFFECTIVE.

Global warming is NOT a threat, but global cooling IS dangerous to humanity and the environment. In 2002 we predicted that natural global cooling would start circa 2020, based on low solar activity, and that prediction is strongly supported by recent evidence.
Politicians foolishly believed scary global warming falsehoods and brewed the perfect storm, crippling our energy systems with costly and unreliable green energy schemes that utterly fail due to intermittency, at a time when we need more cheap, reliable, dispatchable energy due to increased energy demand and imminent global cooling. The people of Australia, Britain, Germany, California, Texas and elsewhere have all suffered due to GREEN ENERGY FAILURES THAT WERE PREDICTABLE AND WERE PREDICTED.
We published in March 2020 that there was no justification for the Covid-19 lockdown, and that it would cause great and needless harm. The Covid-19 lockdown is now estimated to have caused 10-to-100-times the damage of the Covid-19 illness, in terms of increased harm to individuals, families and the economies they depend on.
The same leftist groups concocted and promoted the global warming fraud and the Covid-19 lockdown scam, for political and financial gain. Then these groups linked the two frauds, stating “to solve Covid-19 we have to solve Climate Change” – utterly false and foolish, not even plausible enough to be specious. Then these same groups proposed their Final Solution, the “Great Reset”, a Chinese Communist Party style dictatorship, a centrally-controlled economy where we live like poor slaves, lorded over by our wealthy political masters.
The tragic reality is that the twin frauds of Climate-and-Covid have been accepted by most politicians. Some have covertly or overtly embraced extreme-left politics, and others are so simple-minded and gullible that they believe any falsehood that is repeated often enough. We are governed by scoundrels and imbeciles.


MORE COLD EVENTS recorded by Cap Allon at

June 1, 2021 
A 2020 study by researchers at the University of Illinois at Chicago reveals that it is the COLD which should concern us, not the heat.

June 2, 2021 
SAWS: “Danger to life and property due to hypothermia and the collapsing of infrastructure, widespread loss of livestock and crops [are expected].”

June 2, 2021 
India has been breaking low temperature records left, right and center this year; in fact, since August, 2020 Delhi has busted at least one major weather record each and every month.

June 2, 2021  
A host of records have been toppled, in books dating back to 1874. Trends change (sorry IPCC). Welcome to the next cooling epoch.

June 3, 2021 
“There’s a huge amount of ice growing out from any metal structure … That ice is up to half a metre thick, may be more, in some places.”

June 3, 2021 
Jarring with the MSM narrative, exceptional snowfall has been the crucial factor in this season’s high avalanche death toll — across both Europe AND the United States. #GSM

June 4, 2021 
Sydney’s recent chill is a mere taster to the powerful Antarctic blast currently winding up, due to hit the majority of the Aussie continent by June 9.

June 5, 2021 
“Crops look horrible around here, what’s up isn’t that great, stand problems, yellow from the cold, stunted, lots of acres not up yet, and some replanting being done, what a joke!”

June 7, 2021
Wrap up Australia. This, in my book, will go down as your first Grand Solar Minimum winter (of the modern cooling epoch). Prepare for exceptional lows and snows.

June 7, 2021
Europe experienced a bone-chiller of a spring. To call it a “spring” actually does a disservice to the severity and prolonged nature of the cold — I like to think of March-through-May this year as an “extension of winter.”

June 7, 2021
Unprecedented “stage 8” load shedding could be on the cards in the near future, as an aging infrastructure plus low solar activity-induced cooling threatens a disastrous combo in 2021.

June 8, 2021
The majority of Canada is suffering an unusual June chill this week, as the Arctic rides anomalously-far south on the back of an unpredictable ‘meridional’ jet stream flow.

June 10, 2021
2021 has already been the year without a spring in Europe — and now, the official start of summer also looks under threat, too. #GrandSolarMinimum

June 11, 2021
Record-breaking accumulations of SNOW have also been reported, as a pool of Antarctic air delivers eastern Australia its coldest conditions in decades
June 11, 2021
According to climate scientists, heavy snowfall was supposed to be a thing of the past by now. According to the IPCC, the Sun plays a little-to-no role in Earth’s climate. This is the entrenched idiocy we’re up against.
June 15, 2021
The MSM is currently milking the West’s brief burst of heat for all it’s worth, ramping-up their EOTW rhetoric and infecting the gullible masses with yet more baseless fear-mongering and calls to action — but now, a dramatic “flip” is on the cards as descending Arctic air threatens to spoil the AGW summer party, with rare late-June snow forecast on the higher elevations of WY.
June 15, 2021
“What makes this Arctic depression so special is how southern it is” — meteorologist Einar Sveinbjörnsson.
June 16, 2021
We now live in a perverse reality where failed computer modelling trumps real-world observations, where ‘catastrophic global warming’ makes all the headlines yet behind the scenes entire continents are forced into recommissioning coal-fired plants to keeps their citizens alive during season-spanning freezes.
June 17, 2021
Antarctica has endured near record-breaking temperatures of late. And now a meridional jet stream flow (induced by low solar activity) is beginning to funnel some of that bone-chilling cold northwards, into South America, Australia, and New Zealand.

June 17, 2021
Study: Of 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012, 5.4 million were related to cold, while *only* 311,000 were related to heat.

June 17, 2021
Previous reports of snow in the city of Córdoba occurred in 2007, 1975, 1955, 1920, 1918, and 1912 (all during periods of reduced solar activity) — this is an incredibly rare event.

June 18, 2021
If you still believe in AGW at this point you are damaging our society — there is no other way to put it…

June 18, 2021
The weather models suggested it earlier in the week, and now they have only gained in confidence: record-breaking cold is inbound for much of the North American continent starting Sunday.
June 19, 2021
Antarctica is experiencing an unusually cold start to winter, cold which is threatening to break the icy continent’s lowest temperature ever recorded–the -89.6C (-129.3F) from July 21, 1983.

June 22, 2021
Readings of as low as -3.3C (26F) have been registered, which made for the UK’s coldest June 22 in recorded history, and its second coldest-ever temperature this late into the season.

June 22, 2021 You will not see this data across the propagandizing mainstream media as it is an all-too compelling rebuttal to the anthropogenic global warming narrative…

June 23, 2021
The West’s heat continues to be used as “a sign of catastrophic global warming,” whilst the East’s RECORD COLD continues to be completely sidestepped by the propagandizing mainstream media.

June 23, 2021
It’s been a historically cold start to summer for central and eastern Canada, with the Saskatchewan towns of Lucky Lake, Rosetown, and Leader among the locales logging record low temps this week.

June 23, 2021 8:42 pm

“Earth is getting colder due to low solar activity…

No it isn’t, it’s not even well correlated. The (precipitous) drop from 1360.1 to 1359.7W/^2 seems to have actually warmed things further.

Yeah, nah definitely warmer. Stop making things up.

comment image

June 24, 2021 6:29 am

The corrupt mainstream media only report the hot anomalies – Central and Eastern North America are unusually cold now – below freezing temperatures in West Virginia.
June 24, 2021
Global LT temperatures have cooled 0.5C since Feb2020, In 2002 we correctly predicted this cooling based on low solar activity. In 2019 there was a huge crop failure across the Great Plains of North America, caused by excessive wet and cold weather. In 2021 the early fruit and grape crop in Germany and France was frozen out. Spring has been late and cold in the Northern Hemisphere and Fall has been unusually cold in the Southern Hemisphere..
The lying warmist scientists and their comrades in the media were able to perpetuate their global warming fraud during a period of natural, solar-driven global warming, but now the Sun has gone quiet and the world is naturally cooling.
Soon even the most obtuse of humanity will understand that there is no global warming crisis – that they have been duped and scammed out of trillions of dollars. Their vital energy systems have been badly compromised, and lives have been lost due to the global warming / green energy scam.
To end 2020, climate doomsters were proved wrong in their scary climate predictions 48 consecutive times – the odds of that being mere random stupidity is 1 in ~281 trillion! It’s not just global warming scientists being stupid – in fact, they knew they were lying from the start.
Global warming alarmism is a fifty-year-old climate-and-green-energy scam – it IS that simple.

Tom Abbott
June 23, 2021 5:26 pm

I see that heatwave in the Southwest U.S., that Griff was worrying about, is starting to diminish and return to normal. The area is also going to get some nice rain in the next few days.

Next year the heatwave will probably return to the Southwest and then you can complain again that CO2 is destroying the U.S. Southwest, Griff. You can say that for a few days, and then that heatwave will go away, too, just like this one, leaving you looking foolish for equating CO2 with heatwaves, at least from my perspective.

June 23, 2021 11:04 pm

What is GFS and what is UW and why are they not defined in this article or source blog?

Janice Moore
Reply to  Ruleo
June 24, 2021 10:24 am

1) all abbreviations except the most common, e.g., UK and NASA, should be written once in full, preferably in ( ) immediately following the first use of the abbreviations.

2) FYI 🙂

GFS = Global Forecast System (90% certain)

UW = University of Washington (99٪ certain).

June 24, 2021 4:16 am

This produces a great deal of uncertainty.  By Wednesday, it all should settle down and we should have more confidence in the forecast.” – article

Okay, but all that pot-stirring in the West is dragging nice most air down here to my AO and we are finally getting badly needed rain…. so I am quite happy to embrace that.

Are these cranks and crackpots so bereft of something to do that they have to go to all this trouble to tell us that the Earth is going to be like Venus, or something? Just askin’. I like to be informed. 🙂

Coach Springer
June 24, 2021 5:35 am

One of the interweb sites is now predicting 112 for Portland for the highest. The wave is really only about 3-5 days long. “Put a little ice on that.” Meanwhile, central IL weather is absolutely beautiful. Currently.

June 24, 2021 7:32 am

Cliff teaches meteorology at UW. He leans left, and believes in AGW generally, but he’s pretty good at saying and showing that WEATHER IS NOT CLIMATE! He’s also a honest enough and smart enough to see the decline in basic science and computational literacy our K-12 public schools are causing, and is fighting it tooth and nail (it’s cost him some radio gigs and gotten him yelled at for not being completely on the left-wing train). He sees it’s the curricula and policy not racism that is the problem. He is a serious weather guy.

He’s also updated the forecast.

Reply to  Rolf Nelson
June 24, 2021 9:47 am

Cliff Mass looks like a typical global warming alarmist to me – just another climate fraudster.
I published my above comment (url below) on Cliff’s blog. I even deleted the word “lying”.
What are the odds it will pass moderation?

Bill Parsons
Reply to  Rolf Nelson
June 24, 2021 11:20 am

Mass’s report here, citing the predictions, seems pretty straight-forward. It should be interesting to see what happens this weekend.

the forecast temperatures for 5 PM Sunday based on the excellent European Center model.  As high as 121F in the northern Central Valley of California, 113 and 115 in the Columbia Basin, and 104-105 in the Willamette Valley. Only around 90F near Seattle.

Judging from the 100 degree + spells and half-dozen or so wild fires we’ve got going around Denver I wouldn’t want to be in black-out prone northern Central Valley of California in the next few months.

Jeff Alberts
June 24, 2021 10:04 am

Only around 90F near Seattle.”

Seattle Radio and TV stations have been telling us possible triple digits in the Seattle area. I’ll believe it when it happens.

June 26, 2021 12:03 am

I live in Pierce County, WA; the county south of King (Seattle is in King) and my county has Tacoma in it. I’m around 13km (8mi) inland from Tacoma. The average for this time of year is 71 F (20 C) and partially cloudy at 55% humidity with a standard deviation of 9 F (5 C). We are expecting 100 F (38 C) on Saturday, 106 F (43 C) on Sunday, and 109 F (46 C) on Monday. Essentially, this is a 1 day per 12,700 June months event (if the climate held a constant mean around 71 F), or a 1 day in 1,000 years event. Mind you, only around a third of people here have air conditioning units, and the humidity will remain around 50%. People will die in the next three days; let’s hope it’s not many.
I’m sourcing this from my local AccuWeather.

Last edited 1 year ago by Risviltsov
Reply to  Risviltsov
June 26, 2021 7:43 am

this is an extreme event; not climate-altering.

Bill G
June 26, 2021 4:33 pm

A problem with such early high heat is wildfires. Last year Oregon was slammed with intense fire and smoke covered the entire west coast. I live north if San Francisco and we had intense heat for Marin at approximately 110 F for a couple of days. We had plenty of intense fire in CA but Oregon had it worst where the PM count was unbearable. They don’t have as many resources to fight fires – also we had a very dry year 50% of rainfall but they had much more so with this flash heat and present dryness they may get bigger fires. Any case hope for cool and moist weather for the west coast.

John Rosa
July 1, 2021 7:47 am

All this talk about city temperatures is bull. Look at state temperatures and you will find that record highs go to the 50’s, 30’s, some to the 1880’s. From this perspective current temperatures appear normal.

John Rosa
July 3, 2021 1:20 pm

All this talk about the highest temperature at some location or locations is horsecrap. Too many variables for example: a newly widened highway, a new building or a large parking lot. What is relevant is state high temperatures. Most state hign temperatures were recorded more than 50 years ago, a lot in the 50’s several in the 1880’s. These local temperatures were used as an excuse for non-existent climate change

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