Evidence of COVID Herd Immunity, Why COVID is Increasing In WA and OR, And Why It May Soon Decline Here.

Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog

I think I found something important.  

But I will let you be the judge.  And I would love to hear from any epidemiologists that read my blog.

The number of COVID cases is increasing in Oregon and Washington, while most of the other states are seeing declining or stable COVID caseloads.  The increases are sufficiently worrying that Governor Inslee may reverse the opening of the State.

There is a lot of talk about the need to get herd immunity, in which enough of the population will be vaccinated or have had COVID so that the virus lacks sufficient susceptible people for spread.  But no one seems to be sure about what percentage of immune individuals is needed.  60%, 80% or 90%.   Some scientific papers and media accounts suggest we will never get to herd immunity.  But what is the truth?

I am not an epidemiologist, but it seems to me that there should be sufficient information to get some real answers to the above questions.   And so I sat down with a cup of coffee (actually several) and the data from the Centers for Disease Control and cranked through the numbers.  

And I found something interesting.  

For each state,  I estimated what percentage of the population is immune to COVID-19 and then I compared that to the change in the number of new cases over the past few weeks.

I found a significant relationship between the two.  And I may have discovered the magic herd immunity percentage.

Estimation of the Percent of the Population Immune to COVID-19

First, I started with the percentage of each state’s population that has been reported to have had COVID-19, which ranges from roughly 4 (Oregon) to 14  (Rhode Island) percent. 

There is an extensive literature suggesting the actual numbers of infected people are far higher than the official case numbers, with several research papers suggesting that a factor of three is reasonable.    So I started by taking the CDC state case percentages and multiplying by 3.

Then I secured the vaccine data for each state, and based on the CDC numbers of single and double vaccinations, I assigned 60% of the total vaccinations as the number of people that have gotten at least a single shot.    I then added this number to the 3 times case percentages noted above, to get a final fraction of immune individuals for each state, with numbers running from .56 (Oregon) to .936 (Rhode Island).  This will undoubtedly be a bit of an overestimation because there will be some people that have had COVID that are vaccinated, but that would only shift my estimates of herd immunity by roughly 5-10% at most.  In any case, the approach is consistent for all states.

That Change in COVID Cases for April 15-April 28th

My hypothesis is that increasing percentages of antibodies for COVID should be related to declines in COVID case numbers.   Sot I next turned to the CDC COVID trends pages.  

Here is the one for Oregon.  Not good.  Cases have been rising quite a bit (blue are daily values) and red are 7-day running means).

Oregon
For Washington State, the situation is a little better, but still going the wrong way.  This is why Governor Inslee is threatening to clamp down (and I will suggest later that this would be a mistake).

Washington
On the other hand, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are seeing rapid declines.  Can we understand why?  I think we can.
Using the CDC trend plots and accompanying numbers, I found the changes in the number of cases for roughly the last two weeks (April 15 to April 28th), using the red lines (running 7-day means) shown for each figure.  Then I  compared the recent case number trends in each state against the fraction of state citizens that were immune.  The results are shown below.  And they are exciting and make a lot of sense.
The Y-axis indicates the change in the number of cases per 100K residents and the X-axis is the fraction of state citizens that are immune.  Each dot is a state.  
The two states with the largest INCREASE in COVID cases for that period are Oregon and Washington!  And we are the states with the smallest percentage of immune individuals.
But once you get above .65  there are no significant increases in COVID.  But what REALLY is significant is that the big drops in the number of cases start abruptly around .7, at which 70% of individuals are immune.  Something very special is happening at .7 and it appears it represents the transition to herd immunity.  


Now you may ask why some states are above .7 but are not showing recent changes.   I believe there are several reasons for this.  Some of these states made the transition to herd immunity earlier than two weeks ago.  Once a state transitions, numbers fall and stabilize.  Another possibility is that a major reopening of a state can temporarily maintain current COVID levels.
But there is a clear message from the above.  Once you get to .7, the expansion of COVID is over and a collapse of the number of cases is possible.
Now there is a potential message here for Governor Inslee in all this.  
Washington State is on the verge of reaching a sufficiently large percentage of immune individuals so that COVID cases will first stabilize and then rapidly decline.  At the large rate of vaccination being given in our state (about 60,000 per day according to the WA DOH website) plus the natural spread of the virus, we move from ~.63 today to .7 in roughly a week.    Do we need to add restrictions at this point?

There are other factors that may well contribute to a major decline in WA state Covid numbers during the next month or so.  We are now entering the warm/dry portion of the year, with people spending more time outside and opening their windows.  As noted in an earlier blog, outside air is very COVID safe.  Second, vaccinations are now available for younger people, exactly those who are contributing much of the transmission of COVID.
Does the above analysis make sense?  Why haven’t others done similar number crunching? Let me know if you see any flaws in logic or approach.  But it all seems logical and the picture is coherent and self-consistent.

4.6 37 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
213 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Robert of Texas
May 3, 2021 10:18 am

My first reaction is that “herd immunity” should be directly related to R-Naught of the virus. The R-Naught of SARS-CoV-2 is supposedly higher than that of most Flu viruses, so I would expect the herd-immunity to be higher as well. Your results might be affected by your assumptions – more people may be immune then you account for – this would account for the higher R-Naught.

Secondly, there is more than one strain of SARS-CoV-2 being passed about, and some of the newer variants have a higher R-Naught. This will greatly complicate achieving herd-immunity, especially if a person can get the disease more than once (by having different strains). If some states are mostly affected by the first strain, while other states are mostly affected by later strains you will not be able to make accurate predictions – they may behave differently requiring more immunity.

So, you have timing, strain, and actually immunity to estimate as best you can – that’s a lot of chances to introduce error. This is likely why it hasn’t been published – for fear of it being so far off the mark.

menace
Reply to  Robert of Texas
May 3, 2021 12:20 pm

Chi-Vi supposedly has R0 of ~2.9 (2.4-3.4) so theoretical herd immunity threshold is 1-1/R0 = 65.5% (58%-71%). So your ciphering seems to fall within expectations, whether by skill or luck..

Greg
Reply to  Andrew F
May 3, 2021 7:52 pm

Thanks for that reminder. Herd immunity varies depending upon a lot of assumptions you make about the population.

Apart from the idea the NO ONE had any level of immunity at the start of 2020 and the entire world was naive to the virus, the second largest mistake was to assume trivially simple uniform population distributions.

When dealing with exponential growths, the slightest error in your model initial conditions or assumptions and parameters, quickly leads to meaningless projection.

I hate to point out this we have been here before, with another set of model projections !

Last edited 7 days ago by Greg
Reply to  Greg
May 5, 2021 7:47 am

Mmm – technically, some people had immunity from something else in their past.

Coronavirus are not new – many cases of the common cold are caused by some, and there was SARSv1.

The perennial killer INFLUENZA is related though not a corona virus.

Jphn
Reply to  Andrew F
May 4, 2021 4:31 am

Superseded by events. Unfortunately totally wrong.

william duncan
Reply to  Jphn
May 4, 2021 7:17 am

Explain remark please?

Editor
Reply to  menace
May 3, 2021 5:45 pm

I assume Chi-Vi is the strain that came to the US (partially throught Italy too). What are the R0’s for the more contagious strains, e.g. the UK and India strains?

looncraz
Reply to  Ric Werme
May 4, 2021 6:23 am

Chi-Vi = China Virus

Fran
Reply to  Ric Werme
May 4, 2021 8:30 am

From blood tests for T-cell 18 years after Sars 1, people were still immune. Moreover they also reacted to the current virus. The previous virus is more than 20% different as to genetic code. The various ‘varients’ are at most 0.3% different from each other.

The above from a now banned utube video by Michael Yeadon.

The varient story is Fear Porn.

Greg
Reply to  menace
May 3, 2021 7:47 pm

The whole concept of R0 implies that you have a population totally naive to the virus. That is the definition of R0. That was one of the biggest false assumptions the “experts” made in analysing the epidemics and why their alarmist estimations were so grossly wrong.

Gums
Reply to  Greg
May 4, 2021 7:38 am

Salute!

Great point, Greg.
Here in Florida our initial cases were old people and recent tourists from Asia.
We did not incur a strong increase in cases that were expected after the spring break (keep in mind it is very hard for the particle to fly in a ten mph breeze on the sunny beach).
Most of us figured we had some degree of resistance from seasonal cold/flu exposure and the annual flu shot. In other words, our populace was not virgin, open for business customers. Then there are folks with strong immune systems that had the ability to fight and beat the virus.

Gums sends…

Reply to  Gums
May 5, 2021 7:53 am

Florida commendably saw the less on from Italy so acted to quickly and assertively for care residences/nursing homes.

Starting with those facilities having deficiencies in the last review.

(Some care residence chains in Canada acted quickly when they read news of a new illness in Communist China, knowing it would arrive in North America before long. Besides the usual measures they continued to pay aides who were ill and told to stay home. And quizzed/tested aides for at least temperature and illness at the start of each shift.
OTOH gummints like BC, ON, PQ, and NYC did not.
Once it was realized that aides were working in more than one facility, the Fraser Health Authority took over a week to stop that, whereas a private facility that had some subsidized customers this government employees aiding stopped that within 24 hours – hired private nursing.

Jeffery P
Reply to  Robert of Texas
May 4, 2021 4:12 am

There’s no issue with accuracy when publishing doom and gloom model studies.

John Tillman
May 3, 2021 10:19 am

Daily new cases in OR have been falling since April 23.

John Tillman
Reply to  ResourceGuy
May 3, 2021 11:33 am

As I said, daily new “cases”, however defined, have fallen since April 23. The peak number of course was in Decmber.

rbabcock
May 3, 2021 10:23 am

Good analysis and makes sense from a layman’s perspective.

The flip side of this is just who is getting CV at this late stage of the pandemic and are these people at any more danger than just getting the flu? If the people at high risk have been vaccinated and younger, healthy people end up being those behind the rise in infections, does it really matter infections are rising short term in some states?

menace
Reply to  rbabcock
May 3, 2021 12:26 pm

true that

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/oregon/

OR new daily cases have peaked again now but daily deaths did not seem to increase in this recent wave.

Of course deaths tend to lag 2-3 weeks but so far so good.

It would be interesting if they chart a histogram of ages for the recent new cases and compare it to similar histogram from the larger December wave.

DonM
Reply to  menace
May 4, 2021 9:48 am

75% of the new cases are college related.

So, death rate will likely be less

Vuk
May 3, 2021 10:23 am

That herd is contributing to global warming, but Chinese might have a ‘different’ solution in getting rid of it, no, not another Covid virus, but something more substantial and instant
Huge rocket looks set for uncontrolled reentry following Chinese space station launch
“The Long March 5B, a variant of China’s largest rocket the 22.5-metric-ton Tianhe module was launched from Wenchang on Thursday . Tianhe separated from the core stage of the launcher after 492 seconds of flight, directly entering its planned initial orbit.
….. means the rocket body passes a little farther north than New York, Madrid and Beijing and as far south as southern Chile and Wellington, New Zealand, and could make its reentry at any point within this area. ”
 https://spacenews.com/huge-rocket-looks-set-for-uncontrolled-reentry-following-chinese-space-station-launch/

Last edited 7 days ago by Vuk
rbabcock
Reply to  Vuk
May 3, 2021 10:39 am

Skylab and Mir all over again. Maybe the best thing that could happen would be for it to land on the Chinese Space Agency building. All in all the chance of it falling on your head is very small, but if it does it will be 100% a bad day.

Meab
May 3, 2021 10:30 am

Cliff is neglecting the fact that multiple studies have shown that, in many places, about 30% of people have existing T-cell immunity to SARS-COV-2 probably from a different pre-pandemic corona virus infection.

We have to keep our eye on the ball. The only two reasons for shutdowns were to lower Covid deaths and prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Covid deaths in Washington (and in the US as a whole) have plummeted and hospitals are no longer at risk of being overwhelmed. We’ve already achieved this by vaccinating most of the elderly.

Scissor
Reply to  Meab
May 3, 2021 11:08 am

This paper says it’s much higher than that (some preexisting T cell immunity).

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-020-00808-x.pdf

Reading between the lines, don’t expect the “vaccines” to help much.

whiten
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2021 11:39 am

“Vaccines”!

What “vaccines”, mate.

Oh, well, think I, see what you done there, maybe, or maybe not!!

You, you…

👇✌😛

cheers

menace
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2021 12:58 pm

T cell response does not equate to immunity but rather may make difference between potentially fatal infection versus mild or moderate infection.

The key statement in the abstract:

Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 peptides revealed pre-existing T cell responses in 81% of unexposed individuals and validated similarity with common cold coronaviruses, providing a functional basis for heterologous immunity in SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Unfortunately for the layman it is hard to interpret exactly what this medtech-jargon means. Obviously if 81% are of uninfected are truly “immune” this virus would never have gotten off the ground. If this just means 81% have some response enough to limit health consequences to the trivial then that makes a lot more sense to me.

I have always suspected common cold coronavirus exposure within the past 3 years (which probably constitutes 20-30% of the population) may give sufficient immune response to limit the Chi-vi infection to mild or asymptomatic.

It would have been an interesting experiment, back in early 2020, to simply identify 10,000+ people who had contracted coronavirus type colds and then monitor them to see how they fared with the Chi-vi. I’m not even in medical field and I thought of that idea, surely someone in the field could have thought of that and push for it?

whiten
Reply to  menace
May 3, 2021 1:25 pm

Ok let’s put it this way.

Still, regardless of all known things about
T-cells activity as per means of immunity,
still there is more to it…

cheers

John Tillman
Reply to  menace
May 3, 2021 1:40 pm

Most adult colds are caused by four coronaviruses, two of which belong to the same genus as the WuWHOFlu virus.

Andrew F
Reply to  menace
May 3, 2021 1:46 pm

These new vaccines certainly don’t equate to immunity.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Andrew F
May 4, 2021 3:49 am

no, they dont!
but the amount of over 50s+ here getting the jab this week and thinking they ARE going to be immune is pretty sad
medicos just dont realize recipients feel teflon coated and may well be at risk later on

Last edited 7 days ago by ozspeaksup
Nelson
Reply to  menace
May 3, 2021 2:42 pm

THe 81% number explains why the Diamond Princess had only a 20% infection rate. I think we have made some huge mistakes dealing with this virus.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Nelson
May 3, 2021 3:39 pm

But we had the best advice from experts that money could buy! 🙁

RelPerm
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
May 3, 2021 5:27 pm

Yes, experts that money could buy, what’s that Fauci highest paid guy in the us govt making?

Caroline
Reply to  RelPerm
May 3, 2021 10:36 pm

i think about $440,000

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Caroline
May 4, 2021 3:51 am

throw in the patent payola per vaccine onto that

meab
Reply to  Nelson
May 3, 2021 4:04 pm

59% of the crew and passengers of the Antarctic cruise ship tested positive for COVID.

https://thorax.bmj.com/content/75/8/693

After the initial spread grew rapidly, the passengers on the Diamond Princess were isolated in their cabins which helped contain (but didn’t completely stop) the spread.

chemman
Reply to  menace
May 3, 2021 4:05 pm

“I have always suspected common cold coronavirus exposure within the past 3 years (which probably constitutes 20-30% of the population) may give sufficient immune response to limit the Chi-vi infection to mild or asymptomatic”

That is what that section is saying.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  menace
May 4, 2021 3:47 am

last para, yes someone finally DID think of it and it does appear as if common cold fairly recently IS a good protection via immune reminder
of course trying to CATCH a proper cold right now is a big task..unless you have kids

James
Reply to  ozspeaksup
May 4, 2021 8:50 am

I have not caught once since I started tanking Zinc Quercetin and vitamin D. And I have been around other people with a cold.

Eric Vieira
Reply to  Scissor
May 5, 2021 3:32 am

You’re right ! What vaccines. It would be better to call them “Brain and myocardial venous thrombosis inducers”. The list of people who have died or had experienced serious side-effects (sometimes permanent damage) is getting longer and longer.

stinkerp
Reply to  Meab
May 3, 2021 2:23 pm

Exactly. Though case rates are important to determine herd immunity, that’s all it’s good for. The data that matters is hospitalization and case fatality rates. When media talking heads breathlessly report the latest new cases, push back and ask about the number of hospitalizations and fatalities which is a small fraction of the new cases. Around 97% of people who get COVID-19 recover, most with relatively mild symptoms. Of the ones who are hospitalized or die, most are elderly and/or obese or are immunocompromised. There is no question about who is at risk. The rest of us? Take off the stupid masks. They do nothing.

Last edited 7 days ago by stinkerp
davetherealist
Reply to  stinkerp
May 4, 2021 1:34 pm

Damn You and your common sense and applying the scientific method. Young and Healthy? more likely to die from just about anything other than COVID-19… Variants are just a scare tactic to keep the gravy train rolling for big Pharma and HC industry as a whole. We now know from long term studies Masks are useless, the virus does not live on surfaces as a means of transmission and those who have recovered have near 100% immunity from any related Coronaviruses. Skip the needle , eat healthy and exercise!

Andy Espersen
May 3, 2021 10:30 am

I wonder whether it is possible to get a definite answer to that question for another couple of years when it is all over, when the epidemic has finally run its course – and we can sit down and observe the true facts and statistics about Covid 19. We simply do not know enough about this particular virus.

Timo, not that one
Reply to  Andy Espersen
May 3, 2021 10:50 am

One thing they should look at is, why are the number of “cases” going up, as soon as the “vaccinations” started?
Why are people in nursing homes, who survived the first round,and got both doses starting in December, now dying?
Also, why is it that jurisdictions with the toughest lockdown and masking mandates, keep having increased “cases”?
In Ontario, we got new lockdowns, just as they started mass vaccinations and the “cases” went up. Then they increased the lockdown measures, and the “cases” went even higher. Meanwhile, I still know only one person who got a little bit sick.
In 2003 I had two deaths on my street from SARS, which only killed 44 people in Canada.
Something doesn’t feel right here.

Scissor
Reply to  Timo, not that one
May 3, 2021 11:11 am

Could this be evidence of antibody dependent enhancement that some have warned us about?

whiten
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2021 12:33 pm

Sorry to spoil it for you;

but by the way, as per the way of your quarie, it could be every way possible there,
as possibly every thing or any other way you ever imagined, in your space and time,
either of it been in a fantasy or fiction sand box environment.

It is weird, yes, I know!
(Not really sure though)

cheers

Last edited 7 days ago by whiten
William Bass
Reply to  Timo, not that one
May 3, 2021 12:36 pm

What do PCR tests detect? What do the mRNA vaccines do?

whiten
Reply to  William Bass
May 3, 2021 1:33 pm

What do the mRNA vaccines do?
—‘
Provide the ever best ripoff at large platform,
for the ‘smart’ post modern thieves.

Simple as that…
The rest is simply a story told vocally and sensitively, by the victims in the very merit of the prospect of the victims!

Painful, but still jolly!
Hilariously so!

cheers

John Tillman
Reply to  William Bass
May 3, 2021 1:50 pm

RT-PCR tests detect diagnostic genetic material, ie viral RNA transcribed into DNA.

https://discoverysedge.mayo.edu/2020/03/27/the-science-behind-the-test-for-the-covid-19-virus/

Reverse transcriptase was discovered by Howard Temin and isolated by David Baltimore in 1970, for which achievement they shared the 1975 Nobel Prize, with Renato Dulbecco.

An mRNA vaccine against COVID-19 delivers the genetic instructions for our cells’ ribosomes to make the ChiCom virus’ spike protein. Our immune system then builds antibodies against this antigenic protein.

The adenovirus vector vaccines use DNA.

Last edited 7 days ago by John Tillman
KcTaz
Reply to  John Tillman
May 3, 2021 4:00 pm

The PCR gives many false positives and can even be easily manipulated to give a false positive.
From the inventor of the PCR test.
“…So to start, it is very remarkable that Kary Mullis himself, the inventor of the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) technology, did not think alike. His invention got him the Nobel prize in chemistry in 1993.
Unfortunately, Mullis passed away last year at the age of 74, but there is no doubt that the biochemist regarded the PCR as inappropriate to detect a viral infection.
The reason is that the intended use of the PCR was, and still is, to apply it as a manufacturing technique, being able to replicate DNA sequences millions and billions of times, and not as a diagnostic tool to detect viruses.”

COVID19 PCR Tests are Scientifically Meaningless Though the whole world relies on RT-PCR to “diagnose” Sars-Cov-2 infection, the science is clear: they are not fit for purpose
https://bit.ly/36vkZ7I
Jun 27, 2020

ozspeaksup
Reply to  KcTaz
May 4, 2021 3:56 am

in Aus being run at 40 or more cycles FFS!
35 or so in uk n usa was already way past sane levels from what I read anything over 20cycles you could find anything you wanted

James
Reply to  ozspeaksup
May 4, 2021 9:08 am

The hospital close to me runs 45 cycles. The Independent lab runs 40 cycles. In Florida the cycle counts are required on the results certificate. They seem to understand the science there rather than science based hysteria!

Fran
Reply to  Timo, not that one
May 4, 2021 8:40 am

My reading of this UK report is that, stratified for risk (vaccine tier), the mortality in those who get covid after vaccination are about 25% more likely to die.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/982499/S1208_CO-CIN_report_on_impact_of_vaccination_Apr_21.pdf

Reply to  Andy Espersen
May 3, 2021 11:25 am

I doubt it. This has been a political issue from day 1 and, as such, all the data is being “managed” by political hacks. Were “COVID deaths” really deaths from the Chinese flu? I don’t think that’s anything that we’ll be able to sort out by looking at records that may or may not be accurate. Where “cases” really instances where people had the virus or were there lots of false positives? How do you figure that out after the fact? Where agencies and NGOs who’s grants and funding depended on finding what their benefactors wanted them to find accurately and honestly tendering unbiased data?

There will be plenty of claims in the future, plenty of statistical analysis that “proves” things on both sides, but I doubt we’ll ever really “know”. This has been way to politicized to unclutter it enough to make definitive determinations in my opinion.

KcTaz
Reply to  Sailorcurt
May 3, 2021 4:02 pm

Indeed, Sailorcut.
CDC Admits Hospital Incentives Drove Up COVID-19 Deaths
https://bit.ly/3l1aCwP

August 21, 2020

Derg
Reply to  KcTaz
May 3, 2021 6:22 pm

According to Occasional Cortex you can now petition the US government to reclassify deaths as Covid….🤔

Karen Smith
May 3, 2021 10:34 am

Not disagreeing with any numbers or calculations. Just pointing out that there many be different percentages to reach herd immunity in different states based on how spread out the populations are. In a state where most of the population is located in large cities, it would make sense to need a higher percentage for herd immunity. A state with a population that is spread out in small towns and farming communities might need a lower percentage for herd immunity.

Scissor
Reply to  Karen Smith
May 3, 2021 11:12 am

Yes, there are several factors, including environmental humidity, temperature and sunshine, in addition to demographic concerns.

Richard Page
Reply to  Karen Smith
May 3, 2021 2:53 pm

Agreed. I think these additional factors (demographic and environmental) have been ignored or severely underestimated in dealing with this virus.

KcTaz
Reply to  Karen Smith
May 3, 2021 4:05 pm

Karen, that would seem to be a good point and to make sense, except, how then to explain the high numbers of COVID on the Reservations which are largely very rural and have low populations? One might assume that the Native Americans are more susceptible, I suppose, but I wonder if that tells the whole story? I have no idea, just wondering. It is something that should be studied, I think.

Trying to Play Nice
May 3, 2021 10:35 am

Michigan went through a significant spike in the number of cases recently. We were in a partial lockdown with no easing of the lockdown at the time. The weather was not very nice, so it wasn’t due to people getting out and about more. It seems blue states are just places where everyone gets COVID-19.

TonyG
Reply to  Trying to Play Nice
May 3, 2021 12:01 pm

The Gov. claimed that was because of all the spring breakers coming back from Florida. Funny how only people from Michigan went to Florida (and how nobody from Florida stayed there…)

KcTaz
Reply to  TonyG
May 3, 2021 4:07 pm

The Governor of MI. secretly went to Fl. to visit her father and broke her own rules. Maybe she brought it back to Michigan? 🙂

William Bass
Reply to  Trying to Play Nice
May 3, 2021 12:39 pm

That MI surge was suspiciously confined within the state borders. So, I think that some artifact in testing/counting/etc. that is unique to MI is responsible for the “surge”.

Richard M
Reply to  William Bass
May 4, 2021 7:50 am

Minnesota had a similar surge. Lower total population so the numbers weren’t as big, but the percentages were similar. No states around Minnesota, including Wisconsin which is located between Michigan and Minnesota, saw a similar jump.

Bruce Cobb
May 3, 2021 10:39 am

This just in; the CDC has recently said it’s ok to take off your mask at night when you go to bed, and also while in the shower or swimming.
Whew, what a relief.

Scissor
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
May 3, 2021 11:14 am

Jeffrey Toobin has a question.

Fran
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
May 4, 2021 8:45 am

But Joey B says it is patriotic to wear your mask.

Rud Istvan
May 3, 2021 10:41 am

Some observations.

  1. The mutants will to some extent confound 0.7 higher.
  2. There is some cross immunity to common cold coronas, as the USS Roosevelt situation showed. That will confound 0.7 lower.
  3. It appears that opening a state has little impact on spread.
  4. It appears the vaccines are reasonably safe and effective, certainly better efficacy and no worse safety than flu vaccs.
  5. It was a Fauci induced mistake to ‘quarantine’ everybody—the young and healthy—rather than only the elderly and those with known comorbidities of obesity and diabetes.
Paul Penrose
Reply to  Rud Istvan
May 3, 2021 10:55 am

Rud,
To my mind the jury is still out on #4, at least as far as longer term side effects are concerned, but for older people and those with compromised immune systems, the risk seems worth it to me. If I were younger, say under 30, I would probably take a wait and see attitude. People between 30 and 60 have an interesting decision to make and I wouldn’t criticize them either way.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Paul Penrose
May 3, 2021 11:32 am

We are going to get the Janssen one shot once it finally becomes available here. Is a known viral vector platform in production for over 10 years: HPV. Uses a modified human cold corona as vector ( cannot multiply in you, only in the cell culture used to grow the virus into which the Coid-19 stuff is added). mRNA is new so without any long term safety data on, for example, the nanolipid encapsulants. We are over 65, thankfully with no comorbidities. The 15 million doses spoiled by the contractor in Baltimore has set back our plans.

My son and daughter in law were able to get the Janssen vax in Chicago last week because both ‘sort of’ (but not really) fit high priority group definitions for those under 50 in Illinois. No problems, not even mild side effects. My daughter and son in law are waiting to be able to get the Janssen vax out in Colorado. No priority group, and otherwise too young. Not available in Colorado yet either.

whiten
Reply to  Rud Istvan
May 3, 2021 11:59 am

Paul,
Rud is actually evolving and successfully growing,
even at his old age.
Surprisingly, yes, but still you know, miracles do happen sometimes…
luckily.

This is more like a good sign,
like it not been, an actually definitely ugly one.

Fingers still crossed!
Never knowing, till….

👇✌😛

For the benefit of the all smarties there, trying to figure it out…
The above simply stands as another expression of;

LOL

Oh, well… this:

👇✌

stands for, well… the “42”…

Stop freaking fracking your “time”.

griff, really love you body.
🙂

cheers

Last edited 7 days ago by whiten
Derg
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2021 6:24 pm

A sphincter says what?

Paul Penrose
Reply to  whiten
May 4, 2021 9:43 am

whiten,
I can’t tell if you took too many drugs, or not enough, but you aren’t coherent either way.

davetherealist
Reply to  Rud Istvan
May 4, 2021 1:43 pm

are you crazy. It is still experimental and unlikely to ever reach efficacy of either 2 dose vaccines.. If you are under 50 , or relatives under 50 pass , this is one big mistake.
What you need to know:

  • CDC and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommend use of Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen (J&J/Janssen) COVID-19 Vaccine resume in the United States, after a temporary pause.
  • Reports of adverse events following the use of J&J/Janssen vaccine suggest an increased risk of a rare adverse event called thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS). Nearly all reports of this serious condition, which involves blood clots with low platelets, have been in adult women younger than 50 years old.
  • A review of all available data at this time shows that the J&J/Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine’s known and potential benefits outweigh its known and potential risks.
  • However, women younger than 50 years old especially should be aware of the rare but increased risk of this adverse event and that there are other COVID-19 vaccine options available for which this risk has not been seen.
  • CDC and FDA will continue to monitor the safety of all COVID-19 vaccines.
Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Rud Istvan
May 3, 2021 11:10 am

Fauci is a bureaucratic fraud.

Kpar
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
May 3, 2021 11:45 am

HEY! Is that anything to say about a man who has been right about everything?

Of course, he has also been wrong about everything. Pick your day…

Last edited 7 days ago by Kpar
Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Kpar
May 3, 2021 12:14 pm

Sticks his wet finger up into the breeze to figure out what to say next…

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
May 3, 2021 12:52 pm

What’s it wet with? If he’s wearing his face mask, which he always does (at least in front of a camera), then he can’t get it in his mouth to wet, so instantly the question becomes, in which orifice did he wet it? *shudder*

RelPerm
Reply to  Kpar
May 3, 2021 5:38 pm

A broken clock is correct 2x per day. I’m afraid Dr Fauci record is worse than broken clock 🙁

H. D. Hoese
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
May 3, 2021 1:57 pm

Speaking of Fauci, et al.
https://news.yahoo.com/unlikely-america-reach-herd-immunity-133326123.html
But WSJ just had an article about the 1957 Asian Flu epidemic, which followed an earlier horrible polio epidemic. I survived both, two classmates in high school died from polio before vaccines. Both handled much, much better than the current one.

WSJ article also covered in last TWTW. https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-more-resilient-america-beat-a-midcentury-pandemic-11619794711

I listen to real life and death doctors, not armchair types.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  H. D. Hoese
May 4, 2021 4:00 am

the second item was written BY the dud Ferguson…did you realize that?

Wayne Townsend
Reply to  ozspeaksup
May 5, 2021 5:05 am

Besides the ad hominem “dud”, do you have any arguments about the contents of the article?

KcTaz
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
May 3, 2021 4:17 pm

Carlo, I disagree about Fauci. He’s a great bureaucrat but he’s a colossal scientific fraud.

William Bass
Reply to  Rud Istvan
May 3, 2021 12:41 pm

The variants aren’t doing much to T cell response. I have found at least 5 or 6 papers that confirm as much…here is the latest.

https://www.technologynetworks.com/immunology/news/sars-cov-2-variants-still-recognized-by-t-cells-347278

KcTaz
Reply to  Rud Istvan
May 3, 2021 4:12 pm

“It was a Fauci induced mistake to ‘quarantine’ everybody—the young and healthy—rather than only the elderly and those with known comorbidities of obesity and diabetes.”
Amen, Rud! It was, also, a mistake to not encourage Vit D for people with dark skin above, I think, the 34th or 35th parallel. There seems to be good evidence for it’s benefits in protecting people, esp., darker skinned people who have difficuty absorbing Vit. D, esp., when in Norther latitudes. The Scandinavian countries all supplement their citizens with Vit. D.
Interestingly, I discovered Medicare will not pay for Vit. D level testing. Given what we know now, that seems to be a mistake and very short-sighted and not just in regard to COVID.

Abolition Man
May 3, 2021 10:47 am

Once again eveyone seems to be tiptoeing around the elephant in the room!
Why are therapeutics like ivermectin and HCQ not readily available for suppressing the symptoms of the ChiCom virus while allowing individuals to develope immunity? The latest meta analysis of ivermectin that I read showed an 80% reduction in fatalities when taken early in the illness, and an 85% reduction when taken as a prophylactic!
The estimates of lives saved by using therapeutics worldwide is over 1 1/2 MILLION!
In the US that would be somewhere in the 200,000-250,000 fatality range!
I know that the virus served a higher purpose by helping get Trump out of office, but the sainted Tony Fauxi needs to be grilled long and hard about the gain of function experiments he helped YOU pay for and the connections he has to the pharmaceutical companies who are making big bucks due to the “lack of effective treatments!”
The cowards in our media and political circles are allowing the CCP to get away with a devastating act of war by killing millions and destroying economies without bullets or bombs!

Scissor
Reply to  Abolition Man
May 3, 2021 11:17 am

Great question, and even vitamin D supplementation would have a significant benefit.

LAWRENCE BROWN
Reply to  Abolition Man
May 3, 2021 11:52 am

Perhaps the best therapeutic yet – Leronlimab, aka PRO 140 or Vyrologix – has shown both incredible efficacy and safety (no significant side effects), yet the FDA will not grant an EUA. The company that makes Leronlimab is in Vancouver, WA, and they are now trying to get approval to sell in Canada, the UK, the Philippines, Brazil, etc. The FDA has approved horrible drugs (see Remdesivir) with little efficacy and significant adverse side effects because they are produced by big pharma companies…and big pharma companies pay between 40% and 70% of the FDA’s bills (and frequently swap personnel).

Bottom line, if anyone gets a bad case of COVID 19, work with your Dr to try and get approval to receive Leronlimab, it has saved many at death’s door.

Andrew F
Reply to  Abolition Man
May 3, 2021 2:06 pm

That’s easy to answer. Under FDA guidelines none of the vaccines could have been granted EUAs if there were likely treatments already existing. They had to be dissed and marginalised.Fauci has known since 2005 that HCQ worked on corona viruses.

But without an EUA, no kaching!!

skiman
Reply to  Abolition Man
May 4, 2021 12:58 pm

Yes! I don’t have the link but I believe someone on here referred to a vid with Dr. Peter McCullough to the texas health board? where he states that he believes 400,000 could have been saved. Sooner or later someone with the MSM or the ‘right’ cridentials will go after this.

Pamela Matlack-Klein
May 3, 2021 10:50 am

Cliff, what test is being used in Oregon and Washington? A Positive test is not the same as a case but this is frequently used to multiply numbers and make it look worse. You might want to review some of Dr. Sebastian Rushworth’s essays, he has been writing quite a lot about Covid. https://sebastianrushworth.com/

Philip
Reply to  Pamela Matlack-Klein
May 3, 2021 11:40 am

Good question. It is mostly a PCR test. However, Oregon Health goes deaf when people ask how many iterations are used in the PCR test that Oregon uses. It is impossible to get an answer. Some consider that it is likely that Oregon runs the tests for a far higher number of cycles than is reasonable, in order to generate a lot of false positive results.

This may well be true if you look at the number of hospitalized cases, actual numbers rather than percentage of beds available – a lot of available beds seem to have just evaporated recently, and the percentage of beds occupied is reported higher, mostly because of the “loss” of beds rather than more cases being hospitalized. Compare the actual numbers of hospital cases to the reported case count, and it looks like many fewer people are actually getting sick and dying from COVID-19.

These inflated numbers allow the governor to maintain her “state of emergency”, and get more money from the federal government.

mwhite
May 3, 2021 10:50 am
William Bass
Reply to  mwhite
May 3, 2021 12:46 pm

Yep and there is guy on Twitter that has some reasonably compelling arguments that it all started in 2018/2019 in China with lots of immunity conferred to Oceana, Asia, and Africa based on their proximity to Chinese citizens. Even tracks a significant reduction in CO2 in 2018 in China that was similar in magnitude to the drop in CO2 during 2020.

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1389271873142366210?s=20

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  mwhite
May 3, 2021 1:04 pm

This was a calculation I had done way back in February of 2020… if there had already been enough cases to notice a trend in “sticky pneumonia(?)” and visit enough patients to obtain enough virus for a DNA analysis/mapping by mid-January, that the ChiComs ordered destroyed and locked up on about January 30(?), then patient zero was at least 6 weeks before the collection of similar cases became apparent. I’m thinking it took at least 6 weeks of research to be able to map the DNA. Do that arithmetic and 6 weeks before mid-January is early December, 6 weeks before that was mid-October… That’s the conservative estimate, the Wuhan Flu (I refuse to be PC, I’ll call it the Wuhan Flu if I damn well wanna) had to have been in existence and spreading before mid-October 2019. Another data point, I can’t find the link now, but news came out of California(?) that a death that occurred there in early December 2019 had tested positive for Wuhan Flu.

I would need to see more facts to back it up, if the Wuhan Flu already existed in the wild in Italy as early as Sep 2019, there may be something to the Chinese claim that they got it from somewhere else, but I wouldn’t bet any money on it. The commercial link between China and Italy was already well-known before Trump banned any flights from China, so it’s highly more likely that the Italy cases, even the earliest one(s), came from China where it originated, rather than the other way around.

Reply to  mwhite
May 3, 2021 1:32 pm

The first traces in Italy had much earlier manifestation in sewage plantsin spring 2019 or evenearlier, don’t remember exactly

ozspeaksup
Reply to  mwhite
May 4, 2021 4:14 am

absolute stonker of a flu or two going round Aus in the march and october 2019 remember the months cos i had either both or the same on twice(unlikely) and it was savage pneumonia both times.
actually got a pneumo vax in march 20 because of that and its rare I ever accept a vaccine. ive Had most of the bugs they hand em out for anyway;-/

whiten
May 3, 2021 10:56 am

I do not want or mean to spoil it for the herd immunity lot… dummies.

It,
herd immunity does not really care or depend on your opinion.
Was there as a matter of fact, long before you all silly lot, were even born or conceived… and still there, it is,
regardless of all silliness and stupidity at large out there.

Grow up.

Sorry, is just what it is.

(side note to the self…
“please, please, for goodness sake, stop;
“dwinking and twyping””, you
“fool twoat!”)

🙄

cheers

Last edited 7 days ago by whiten
mikebartnz
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2021 12:43 pm

What a load of gibberish.

whiten
Reply to  mikebartnz
May 3, 2021 1:09 pm

Yes, true.
And I love it.

You in the other hand,
keep crossing you fingers, and really believe in your own skill of literacy!

Thank you… appreciated!

Can’t do cheers though, to your lot.

Weally sowry, Pwetorian.

bye now,
hopefully, fingers cwossed…

…no need to come back…

please stay a way… will definitely not be missed… assure you…
believe it or not…
it is truth!

“God, for the sake of goodness, save us from the imbeciles and the literate stupids… whatever that means…
please if it is not too much to ask!”

Tom in Toronto
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2021 1:03 pm

Please take your medication and head back to bed, sir.

whiten
Reply to  Tom in Toronto
May 3, 2021 1:49 pm

Tom, with all fairness,
how sure are you that somehow I am in medication treatment?

You using the best of your mental brilliance to somehow figure that out,
isn’t it Tom in Towonto.

Sorry to break it to you
Tomy in Twonto…
am not in any medical treatment yet Tomy boy in Towonto.
No any physical or otherwise problems up to now for me Tom in Towonto.

What about you Tomy,
how much it hurts for you Tom in Towonto?

Do not lie to your self, “boy”!

cheers

TonyG
Reply to  Tom in Toronto
May 3, 2021 2:06 pm

I think someone needs to do a wellness check on whiten.

whiten
Reply to  TonyG
May 3, 2021 2:29 pm

I have fracking wasted years of my lifetime,
for the sole purpose that somehow I get a fair check on my wellness.

Can’t blame Anthony though.

But thanks for bringing it up, lost soul…
Oh well you believe not on soul matter… or silly things like that!

Sorry my bad to you, lost one…
obvioulsly a lot of waste of time…there,
but you see, I can afford it.
Can you?…
really!!!

cheers

Richard Page
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2021 2:58 pm

Hmm. Alcohol and typing certainly don’t mix.

whiten
Reply to  Richard Page
May 3, 2021 3:36 pm

Really?

Derg
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2021 6:26 pm

Yes

Lowell
May 3, 2021 11:00 am

I think a lot of the people that have had covid are taking the vaccine. I am in a group of people that got hit hard with no deaths a year ago. Thankfully. Of the people that know they had covid 4 out of 10 have taken the vaccine. Out of people who think they probably got covid but are not sure 5 out of 5 have taken the vaccine. And of those that know they didnt get the wuhan covid 4 out of 9 have taken the vaccine. I suspect at least 50% to 66% that had the wuhan covid are going to take the vaccine in wa state. They will do this because
1) There is a lot of propaganda encouraging this.
2) Their employer is pressuring them
3) Even if you had it you can still test negative to antibodies so you dont have proof
4) You didn’t show symptoms.
5) You were sick but it could have been a cold.

Abolition Man
Reply to  Lowell
May 3, 2021 12:17 pm

Lowell,
It is a violation of the Nuremberg Code to force people to take experimental medications! The federal government cannot legally require it (although they’d love to,) but they can pressure businesses and corporations and schools to mandate these “vaccines” for all without breaking the letter of the law!
We are currently in the midst of the biggest government promoted medical experiment since the Psychedelic Era was kicked off by CIA agents turning Leary and others on to LSD! Why these drugs are so important is an interesting topic, but my spidey senses always kick in when the government seems intent on getting vast swathes of the public to do ANYTHING!
I hope that there are no long term problems from them, but the number of blood clotting problems and other adverse reactions make me wonder if Operation Warp Speed may not turn out to be the biggest blunder of Trump’s career!
There was NEVER any reason to rush the vaccine development EXCEPT that use of effective therapeutics to quickly attain herd immunity could have been seen as a win for Trump!

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Abolition Man
May 3, 2021 1:16 pm

A number of universities in Colorado will require all students and faculty have the WuFlu jab before fall semester.

Scissor
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
May 3, 2021 2:38 pm

One can submit a form for a religious or medical disability exemption. At the university of Colorado, I understand that the form is under development.

Personally, I don’t understand why one would need an exemption to get out of taking an experimental therapy as this would mean that the university is requiring a “vaccine” not merely recommending one.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2021 3:22 pm

Very little of any of this whole virus deal makes any sense.

Abolition Man
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
May 3, 2021 4:22 pm

You’ve just got to look at it through the right lens!
The CCP got to get rid of Trump, who was punishing them for bad behavior, they got to cripple the Western economies and make them even MORE dependent on China and it’s slave labor system, and they were finally able to crush the rebellion in Hong Kong with little international censure!
The DemoKKKrats got rid of Trump, stole a tiny majority in the Senate as well, destroyed thousands of small businesses that bridle at government regulations, and killed off tens of thousands of older Americans who tend to vote more conservatively!
What’s not to like about the benefits provided by ChiCom-19?

KcTaz
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2021 4:39 pm

A number of Republican governors and legislatures are forbidding that any institution or business require the vaccine. I hope more states do that. They have also put the kabash on vaccine passports.

res
May 3, 2021 11:02 am

Once you are “immune” to a virus, after you have had it or been successfully vaccinated, who ever said you wont get it again?

Do you think that creates a bubble where the virus cant enter your body or get going enough to produce a positive test result? It just means you skip the phase where your body has to over do the inflammation stage, to allow time for the antibody research phase to complete. Antibodies don’t kill the virus, they simply muzzle its connection capability to give your body time to create the killer cells which will clean it from your system.

Everyone’s immune system runs at a different rate and each day each person’s immune system ebbs and flows in strength based on sleep, hydration, nutrition etc.

Once 50-90% of people can have the virus in their system with little to no effect, little to no symptomatic effect, that is what herd immunity is. What a great CON we have witnessed.

Covid-19, a virus to which 99% of the world was already “immune” from the start, especially children.

ResourceGuy
May 3, 2021 11:03 am

The data is even worse for mutations.

John Tillman
Reply to  ResourceGuy
May 3, 2021 11:13 am

The usual trend is for pathogens to get more contagious but less lethal. More infective mutants will drive out less infectious strains. More deadly strains OTOH run the risk of wiping out their hosts, ie victims. The more fatal European mutant that struck the eastern US may have succumbed in this manner.

Evolution 101.

Last edited 7 days ago by John Tillman
Willy
Reply to  John Tillman
May 3, 2021 12:14 pm

Evolution 101, except when you give that more deadly strain a new evolutionary future by vaccinating with a ‘leaky’ vaccine.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-makes-virus-dangerous
Read this and understand.

John Tillman
Reply to  Willy
May 3, 2021 1:07 pm

I’m familiar with leaky vaccines and their risk of evolving more virulent strains. The only leaky human vaccine of which I know is for whooping cough, which is caused by a highly contagious bacterium. In that case, the pathogen doesn’t seem to have developed greater virulence. There could well be others about which I don’t know.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Willy
May 4, 2021 4:36 am

oh crap!
Bird flu isn’t alone. The world’s first vaccine for malaria, which was recently approved by European Medicines Agency, is also leaky. Vaccines for HPV and whooping cough can leak too; however it is unknown if this scenario creates more dangerous viruses for each of these diseases.

dunno why
 I wouldnt bet my life that they DO!

whiten
Reply to  John Tillman
May 3, 2021 12:16 pm

European mutant?

What the freaking frack is that, body?

You suppose to be better than that, body!

You suppose to be smart, shall you not, John, the well versed John!

cheers

John Tillman
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2021 12:41 pm

The strain that apparently arose in Germany, but hammered Lombardy early in the epizootic..

whiten
Reply to  John Tillman
May 3, 2021 1:57 pm

Since when a guy like you will consider strains as same as mutations?

John, please tell me that I am posing a wrong question
to you now!

cheers
John

John Tillman
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2021 8:11 pm

New strains evolve via mutations.

I would have thought that that was obvious.

mikebartnz
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2021 12:48 pm

Yet more gibberish.

whiten
Reply to  mikebartnz
May 3, 2021 2:36 pm

You really must be too young…
like a baby at the least, or very least,
isn’t it!

Learn to be patient, if you can, that is, if at the very least you can read this!
Can you really, read!

cheers

Last edited 7 days ago by whiten
Clyde Spencer
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2021 3:58 pm

I think you would find your comments to be more effective if you weren’t so cryptic. You are getting a lot of down-votes, probably because a lot of bright people don’t understand what you are trying to communicate. The failure would seem to be on your end! Maybe if you come back when you are sober, you can make some contributions.

whiten
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
May 3, 2021 4:42 pm

Clyde,

What makes you think that I, or even you or anyone else for that matter,
do ever engage in communication,
because simply the others have to listen or being subjected to our bright or otherwise thoughts?

In there and then, just like that,
is not much of a feedback!

Hopefully this not too messy or cryptic.

cheers

Ruleo
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2021 11:20 pm

Your syntax is akin to a drunk. You can’t communicate at all. Your prose is also trash.

How in the hell do you not self-reflect on that?

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  John Tillman
May 3, 2021 1:14 pm

Just a few weeks ago I heard someone say that the Chinese saw early case fatality rates of ~10%. That’s not what the U. S. has seen, where it seems to be much closer to 0.25% (I didn’t go look that one up, so anyone who did can correct me if they so choose.). Assuming either of those data points are correct, why? The Chinese did not even test for Wuhan Flu until the patient was already good and truly sick, so that they detected only 1 out of 400 actual cases of the virus? Or the U. S. test is so hyper-tuned that we’re seeing as much as 90% false-positive cases? If neither is the case, if those numbers are anywhere near correct, then what the Chinese faced is not the same thing as what the U. S. faced. Or is the actual number somewhere in the middle of all 3 of these reasons?

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Red94ViperRT10
May 3, 2021 3:26 pm

There were lots of “leaked” news reports and photos supposedly smuggled out of Wuhan about people dying in the streets, locked in apartment buildings, and bulldozed roadblocks out of the city. Disinformation?

menace
Reply to  John Tillman
May 3, 2021 1:22 pm

More deadly strains OTOH run the risk of wiping out their hosts, ie victims.

That certainly would not be a factor for Chi-vi with ~0.5% fatality.

Even the 35% deadly MERS (thank goodness not very infectious) still comes back multiple years (45 cases in 2020). In my mind, I kind of joke that Arab tradition of kissing their prized camels keeps it going.

The probability of a mutation making an already deadly virus to be somehow more deadly is very small. The overwhelming outcome of any mutation is that it will be no more or less deadly per capita infected (even if it might happen to become more infectious).

KcTaz
Reply to  John Tillman
May 3, 2021 4:44 pm

John, Farr’s laws
William Farr
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Farr

Law of epidemics[edit]
Main article: Farr’s laws
In 1840, Farr submitted a letter to the Annual Report of the Registrar General of Births, Deaths and Marriages in England. In that letter, he applied mathematics to the records of deaths during a recent smallpox epidemic, proposing that:
“If the latent cause of epidemics cannot be discovered, the mode in which it operates may be investigated. The laws of its action may be determined by observation, as well as the circumstances in which epidemics arise, or by which they may be controlled.”[10]
He showed that during the smallpox epidemic, a plot of the number of deaths per quarter followed a roughly bell-shaped or “normal curve”,[11][12] and that recent epidemics of other diseases had followed a similar pattern….[13]

Andrew F
Reply to  ResourceGuy
May 3, 2021 2:44 pm

No, the hype is worse, the data suggests otherwise.

ResourceGuy
May 3, 2021 11:13 am

During the Spanish Flu, SF had a resurgence after celebrating in the streets over success in fighting what turned out to be the first wave. In Oregon, they turn out in the streets to celebrate violence.

The Flu in San Francisco | American Experience | Official Site | PBS

whiten
May 3, 2021 11:19 am

A note to the author of this article.

No matter how you think about herd immunity towards covid,
even when in this point in time, a year after at least,
and you yourself at a positive stand now,
still you completely non immune to stupidity about of it all.

No much chance of any herd immunity there, towards the stupidity shown or exercised.

No much chance of receptive immunity of the herd there, to contemplate.

Really sorry, but that’s how sometimes it happens to be.

Nature, life, sometimes happens to be a real bitch… “”””” and squarely.

cheers

not

mikebartnz
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2021 12:51 pm

Give it a rest.

whiten
Reply to  mikebartnz
May 3, 2021 2:03 pm

In your case you are lucky.

For best of me can’t make out your given “name” there.

Too hard for me… it makes me feel weally illitewate…

Thank you any way, for your time and effort.

cheers

whiten
Reply to  mikebartnz
May 3, 2021 2:06 pm

For goodness sake,
stop laughing mikebawtnz.
🙃

cheers

Derg
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2021 6:28 pm

Sober up

Richard Page
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2021 3:02 pm

Still hammered, then? Maybe sober up a bit if you want to make a coherent reply.

Kevin kilty
May 3, 2021 11:24 am

Some cases, perhaps quite a significant number, are lab confirmed but not actually sick people. We are still testing some 15,000 per week who have no symptoms. If one ever expects to get to zero cases without considering the false positive rate — well that person is a fool. If a person hopes to control an epidemic with lab tests without considering false negatives, then person is a fool too. This epitomizes most of our public health folks.

menace
Reply to  Kevin kilty
May 3, 2021 1:25 pm

hospitalization rates are a better indicator but unfortunately hard to get those stats

menace
Reply to  menace
May 3, 2021 1:26 pm

to clarify, if your goal is “keep hospitals from being overwhelmed” then hospitalization rates not new cases is what you should keep your eyes on

Scissor
Reply to  menace
May 3, 2021 2:51 pm

It’s a sad situation indeed. The link below says that hospitals are charging from $20 to $1419 per covid test. If labs are able to get someone to pay about $1400 for a test that probably costs less than $20 to perform, I can see why they would never want to stop providing that “service.”

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/covid-19-test-prices-and-payment-policy/

Last edited 7 days ago by Scissor
Richard Morton
May 3, 2021 11:38 am

I live in Yuma, AZ – a small town with a agriculture/military-based economy. We also host a huge number of “snowbirds” for 5-6 months out of every year – and they have been leaving in droves in recent weeks as the warm summer temps are returning.
When these snowbirds first came down back in October/November, Yuma County showed up on the ‘covid hot-spot’ map, and the NYT wrote a wonderful hit piece on how Yuma County was surging with covid cases – an article designed to harm our economy as punishment for its overwhelming support for Trump (most winter produce for the country comes from here, and Imperial County, CA).

The vast majority of our snowbirds come from Washington, Oregon, and Canada (BC). They apparently brought the Covid surge with them when they came, and are apparently taking it back to the Pacific Northwest as they leave.

These ‘surges’ are not difficult to understand when you understand the ‘migration patterns’ of this select group of travelers – unless you are a “science” writer for the NYT….

KcTaz
Reply to  Richard Morton
May 3, 2021 4:55 pm

Richard, I live in Arizona, too. There was a definite connection between COVID and the migration pattern of the Snowbirds. Farther north, we see a fair number from the upper Mid-western states. Florida seems to get their Snowbirds mostly from New England states. One would think some enterprising soul would have studied that pattern but no one has, as far as I know.

Richard Morton
Reply to  KcTaz
May 3, 2021 6:02 pm

Yeah, but such a study might interfere with the narrative, so it would be escorted quietly out of the discussion 😉

Nick Schroeder
May 3, 2021 11:42 am

Per CDC data 80% of the C-19 CASES were among those UNDER 65 years.
80% of DEATHS were among those OVER 65 years.
30% of C-19 DEATHS were among those OVER 85 years at 2% of the population.
30% of C-19 deaths occurred in nursing homes, hospice or residence.

The HERD was already immune. C-19 was just culling the HERD of the too many, too sick, too old, too crammed together in contagious badly run (BLUE) elder care facilities.

The lying, fact free, fake news MSM coup d’etat propaganda machine rebranded the annual influenza as C-19 to stampede the sheeple into foregoing due process and civil liberties and to depose Trump.

We now know how easy it would be to line the sheeple up for cattle car trips to zyklon showers.

Abolition Man
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
May 3, 2021 12:27 pm

Nick,
The lying, fact free, fake news MSM is also complicit along with their High Tech Nazi buddies for many of the fatalities that occurred! By suppressing information about ivermectin and HCQ, and cancelling anyone who tried to promote the use of therapeutics, they helped kill at least 200,000 Americans! That makes them mass murderers; just like the original Nazis they try so hard to emulate!
And we can’t let the CCP and the WHO off the hook either! The early coverups and lies from the ChiComs and their puppet lead to a great deal of misinformation and deaths as well!

KcTaz
Reply to  Abolition Man
May 3, 2021 5:00 pm

Speaking of governments and tech giants, I just came across this recently. I was never for vaccine passports as a matter of civil liberties but this gives a chilling and even more important reason to oppose them.
I have been shocked to learn how many American companies aided the Nazis, some even after WWII started, like Coca-cola and IBM.
How IBM Helped The Nazis Carry Out The Holocaust
https://allthatsinteresting.com/ibm-nazis-ww2

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
May 3, 2021 1:17 pm

This is accurate enough I want to up-vote it, but depressing enough (because it’s too close to true) that I won’t.

Scissor
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
May 3, 2021 3:05 pm

277 youngsters (0-17 years of age) have died of C-19 in the U.S. since the pandemic began. There are apparently about 22 million within this age group. Less than 1% of this group have been fully vaccinated but there have been about 10 deaths associated with the vaccines. At least one, a 2 year old, was part of the Pfizer trial.

I was not able to find the number of C-19 cases in this age group, but it appears that death rates from vaccination are on the same order of magnitude as death from C-19.

Without a doubt, there will be survivors of C-19 in this age group that will succumb to vaccination death. Throw in the unknowns of long-term effects and this drive for their vaccination borders on insanity.

Scissor
Reply to  Scissor
May 4, 2021 4:18 am

Scopes is saying that the purported death of a 2 year old being part of a Pfizer clinical trial is “unproven.” I can’t imagine that a 2 year old would be part of a trial at this point. So, I would question this claim also.

Tegill
Reply to  Scissor
May 5, 2021 8:46 am

Given that when Snopes says “unproven” it typically means they don’t agree with the story but didn’t look for any evidence one way or the other and that there are parents who are willing to have puberty blocking drugs given to their 9 year old because they (the kids) want to be a different “gender”, I would not be surprised at all that some paranoid parents would allow their 2 year old to be part of a trial for an experimental medication to possibly “save” them from a non-existent threat.

n.n
May 3, 2021 12:12 pm

Community immunity implies reduced transmission paths, which mitigates but does not preclude exponential blooms.

whiten
Reply to  n.n
May 3, 2021 12:25 pm

Don’t be “naughty” now.

🙂

Steve Z
May 3, 2021 12:20 pm

One factor that is greatly overlooked when discussing COVID is the change in the World Health Organization’s recommended number of cycles in their testing procedures, which decreased from 40 to 25 on January 20, 2021, which just happened to (probably intentionally) coincide with Joe Biden’s inauguration as president.

Each cycle concentrates the virus particles (or fragments thereof) by a factor of about 2, so that 40 cycles concentrates the particles by a factor of over a trillion (2^40 = 1.1*10^12) over the original swab. The newer 25-cycle tests base the diagnosis on a concentration of 2^15 = about 32,000 times lower than the earlier 40-cycle test.

This means that the 40-cycle (Trump era) tests were detecting lots of false positives (from virus fragments, not entire viruses) among asymptomatic people who needlessly quarantined themselves and never got infected. If the test detected fragments of the virus but they never got sick, these people were probably already naturally immune–they were exposed to the COVID virus (or a similar virus) but their bodies destroyed it.

With the 25-cycle (Biden era) tests eliminating most of the false positives, people who were exposed to the virus but never showed symptoms now test negative, but are equally naturally immune, but are not counted among those exposed to the virus, so that natural immunity might be higher than previously thought. Add to that the fact that children seem to be naturally immune, and the total immune fraction may be even closer to “herd immunity”.

TonyG
Reply to  Steve Z
May 3, 2021 12:27 pm

Didn’t they also change the definition of a “case” to require TWO positive tests? I recall reading something about that.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Steve Z
May 3, 2021 1:20 pm

There were people who applied the 40-cycle test to non-human materials (like orange juice) and got positive results.

Scissor
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
May 3, 2021 3:08 pm

Make sure to use a 6 foot long straw.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2021 3:28 pm

And an N-95 mask.

PaulH
Reply to  Steve Z
May 3, 2021 2:07 pm

Steve Z makes an important point. It seems different health authorities can set the Cycle Threshold (Ct) as they see fit. The most current recommendation from the CDC is to set the Ct to less than or equal to 28. I’ve seen others recommend keeping Ct between 20 and 25. Comparing “case counts” between jurisdictions might not be valid unless the Ct (and other testing factors) are known.

KcTaz
Reply to  Steve Z
May 3, 2021 5:11 pm

Steve Z,
Zerohedge has a good article on that here.
Right On Cue For Biden, WHO Admits High-Cycle PCR Tests Produce COVID False Positives
Jan 21, 2021 –
https://bit.ly/3iL13lD

Also, these are interesting.
http://bit.ly/3uEt9o1
and, here.

COVID19 PCR Tests are Scientifically Meaningless Though the whole world relies on RT-PCR to “diagnose” Sars-Cov-2 infection, the science is clear: they are not fit for purpose
https://bit.ly/36vkZ7I

fretslider
May 3, 2021 12:39 pm

In the UK press HI theory has been described as “discredited”, a narrative designed to strengthen the case for locking down.

The Lancet in its zeal to be anti Trump published and then retracted a dodgy paper on Hydroxychloroquine

Getting good (unbiased) information is nigh on impossible – I’m willing to bet the UK has immunity now. Will they give up control?

Unlikely

Richard Page
Reply to  fretslider
May 3, 2021 3:10 pm

Due to the EU being a dangerous neighbour and a bad actor, we’re having some difficulty getting a second dose of the vaccines. So, although we might have fair to middling immunity from the first dose it isn’t by any means certain that this will be enough to block this third wave that the EU seems to be experiencing. Let’s just hope that one dose is enough and that Ursula VDL isn’t trying to harm the population of the UK by her stupidity and incompetence.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Richard Page
May 3, 2021 3:34 pm

On the data I have reviewed, one dose of either mRNA vax suffices. Not quite as good as the 1 dose Janssen viral vector.
Let me explain. Vax is intended both to prevent symptoms and lessen their severity. Neither mRNA vax are fully effective at preventing ‘breakthrough’ infections, unlike cowpox for smallpox.
So, compare one shot mRNA to Janssen adeno viral vector. One shot about the same at preventing any symptoms, and about the same at preventing hospitalizations. The two shot is admittedly better at preventing any symptoms, but that is a false 2x$ message.

Richard Page
Reply to  Rud Istvan
May 3, 2021 4:08 pm

Depending on where the report originated and which company they were shilling for, a single dose should give something like 65-80% protection. Hopefully that will be good enough.

skiman
Reply to  Rud Istvan
May 4, 2021 1:39 pm

Rud, pardon my ignorance but could you explain further. I’m 78 and am holding off getting jabbed. I live in a safe spot, very low risk and have been waiting for the powers that be to get their act together re vaccines. Presently 4 month wait for 2nd jab.Also hoping for new breakthroughs for vacs ie. novavax is one I think and a so called supervac that treats all variants by impacting a different ‘leg’ of the spike.
regards, doug

Fran
Reply to  Richard Page
May 4, 2021 11:46 am

Probably a good thing. See Dr Been’s tedious video with a guy translating an Israeli report in Hebrew. Second dose + more serious side effects.

Alex
May 3, 2021 1:05 pm

Quite reasonable.
Let us see what will be the next move of the virus.

whiten
Reply to  Alex
May 3, 2021 4:09 pm

Simple, it still will be a double infection virus,
throat infection plus lung infection,
but next will be the other throat too,
the one the Chinese were trying perversely to swab test…

🙂

Please, blame me not, you pointed to a considerable outcome, I just tried to substantiate it…

cheers

ozspeaksup
Reply to  whiten
May 4, 2021 4:48 am

upvoted for the chuckles on this post

Red94ViperRT10
May 3, 2021 1:31 pm

Mr. Mass, all-in-all a good analysis and write-up, but your corrections fail to say anything about those who were already immune (without showing any symptoms) but received a vaccine anyway, nor did you add anything to the final immunity number to take into account those who were naturally immune and were never going to get sick from it, even if they did not receive the vaccine either. Hell, as far as we can tell, the U. S. may have already been >50% protected before the first vaccine was ever administered. Do you think you could produce a range, rather than just a minimum? I like the graph, though, that says a lot to me.

Andrew F
May 3, 2021 1:44 pm

Read Nic Lewis’ work. And Gabriela Gomez too.

Michael E McHenry
May 3, 2021 1:47 pm

In New Jersey USA where I live the number of daily positives here dropped precipitously in the past week. The transmission rate as of today is 0.37. This also happened in May 2020.

Abolition Man
Reply to  Michael E McHenry
May 3, 2021 3:47 pm

My condolences and prayers for you, living in one of the hardest hit states!
What seemed to be the reason for NJ’s high fatality rate; bad leadership, like NY and MI; or were there other factors involved?

Michael E McHenry
Reply to  Abolition Man
May 3, 2021 4:11 pm

NJ is a very densely populated state. I think the most in the US. It also had the virus early. It also has lots of nursing homes. So the high infection and fatality rate is not unexpected. Outside of vaccines I don’t see much that can be done.

Paul C
May 3, 2021 2:11 pm

The analysis is likely close to the mark. However, if the governor is aware of this, he probably will impose restrictions so that he can take political credit for the rapid drop in cases caused by herd immunity. Herd immunity does appear to be a much more variable threshold than at first imagined, with seasonal effects probably being the dominant variable.
Here in the UK, we appear to have reached herd immunity now. However, the lull last summer could be viewed as a seasonal herd immunity which ceased in the autumn as the population moved back into enclosed spaces, and lower vitamin D levels. I still think that we should have come out of that first lockdown at least a month earlier, allowing more people to gain natural immunity in the summer prior to the severe second wave. Our first lockdown was released on 4th July – some sort of colonial cessation day 🙂 which may be an accidental indication of the political nature of the epidemic.

markl
May 3, 2021 2:13 pm

Washington and Oregon are also two low states in deaths/million. It could just be that they are now “catching up”. If/when herd immunity is realized we will never know how much is due to vaccinations or natural gained immunity unless everyone is tested for antibody type
(or lack thereof).

EwinBarnett
May 3, 2021 2:40 pm

Compare current curve with 1918 curve of death rate. Recall that in 1918 there was no vaccine. But we are told now what a great job the vaccine is doing. Is it really?

D3A6D804-DB42-4AEE-91D2-0D8DB79A77BB.jpeg
KcTaz
Reply to  EwinBarnett
May 3, 2021 8:31 pm

Ewin, that is a very interesting chart. Thank you.

markl
Reply to  EwinBarnett
May 4, 2021 9:09 am

And there are 4 times more people today and more testing being done. I think these graphs
show a pattern for deadly flu virus spread and our ability today to contain it.

BCBill
May 3, 2021 2:50 pm

Beautiful herd of cows in the headline picture. Sadly wasted image though as herd immunity is an irrelevant concept for mild seasonal illnesses like Covid. As with last year, real Covid disease levels, (not fake case levels), will plummet in May due to environmental factors that have little to do with herd immunity. Covid deaths currently remain low and stable in all countries that I have recently checked, exhibiting total disdain for case levels. Expect Covid deaths to become vanishingly small over the summer without regard for vaccination level, severity of lockdown, use of face diapers or any of the other black magic employed by cowering politicians. As with all Corona viruses, the mutation rate defeats the vaccine but that is an irrelevant point for a mild seasonal illness that serves mainly to stimulate the immune system. Expect that by next season, even the drooling cretins at WHO will have had enough of the charade and measures that can actually protect the vulnerable will be taken so that we can avoid the twelfth wave. Big pharma will be satiated until next time.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  BCBill
May 3, 2021 4:10 pm

I think we can safely say that the infection rate plummeting in May is correlated with CO2 peaking and then plummeting through the Summer months. /sarc

chemman
May 3, 2021 4:20 pm

Population density also plays a big role. I live in a rural (HUD frontier <5 people per square mile) area. We have been stable at for over a month on positive test results. Only two since late March. Over all the zip code has between 2500 – 4000 population depending on who you talk to. We only have 114 positive test results since late March 2020. It doesn’t matter how high the R ought is if the virus has no on to be passed on to since we live far apart and have low interactions.

Paul in uk
May 3, 2021 4:21 pm

I started trying to do something similarish back in November but using a different approach. Pre vaccines obviously, but as the Kent variant hit and cases seemed out of control I was wondering if it would only stop when a kind of herd immunity reached. I’m definitely not an expert on this, not my field.

The problem I have with just multiplying cases by e.g. 3 is it doesn’t take into account the considerable changes in testing rates. So I was getting my cumulative cases by using a method to adjust cases based on number of tests and % positive. The other thing is I prefer to look at R as this will start to drop before cases do. Also I’ve not yet figured out how best to estimate vaccine immunity, but think we need to allow for immunity building slowly over about 21 days after a vaccination. But the other problem is different sources of data seem to have a different date offset/delay potentially confusing the comparison between vaccines and cases? Also R and existing immunity might change with new variants.

I’ll try and attach 2 of my graphs for England (I’m trying to do similar for other locations around world and individual local authorities in UK). Upper graph; grey line is cases (gov uk data), black is adjusted cases based on number of tests and % positive. US seems to do more testing than UK so with my method US tends to adjust up quite a bit less than UK. I have low confidence in my adjustment but to my surprise adjusted cases is a surprisingly good match to deaths (pink) and hospitalisations (green). Cumulative cases is red line, from this I tried to create an antibody line (blue) assuming a decay of 0.5% per day. Then compared this with ONS (UK office for national statistics) antibody data (blue squares joined by dashed yellow line). I increased the gain on my adjustment of cases to make those two lines close while also trying to keep  prevalence (lower graph, blue line) reasonably in line with ONS prevalence (dark blue squares). My peak prevalence seems quite a bit higher than ONS. I presume actual immunity might be closer to the red line as T cell immunity doesn’t decline as much as antibodies? My R is ratio of adjusted cases +/- 3 days (s = 6), my prevalence is sum of last 10days of adjusted cases. I have 2 vaccine lines, purple is first doses, I had to guess first few weeks as data seems to be missing. Yellow line is my initial attempt at approximating vaccine immunity assuming it gradually increases over 3 weeks after 1st jab.

I’ve not taken into account the WHO changing the test cycles, which I thought off the top of my head was mid December (coinciding with a temporary drop in my R), but someone above says January where I’m not sure I’m seeing it in my R.

Observations: (if there is any validity in my analysis, which I have low confidence in) R was reducing before lockdown on 5th November so was that lockdown necessary? But then R went up presumably as the “Kent” variant with a higher R or requiring slightly different immunity hit. R plummets from around 25th December (people suddenly from then being more careful and on holiday from work?) and reaches 1 early January, vaccine immunity is very low then so not sure vaccines did it. ONS antibody line separates from my antibody line (from cumulative cases) around 24th January implying  vaccines could be helping towards herd immunity about then, effect on R not obvious though at any time?

Further analysis: assuming HIT = 1 – 1/R and perhaps somewhere between 20 – 50% have pre existing immunity (so you’re already 20 – 50% of the way to HIT even in 2019, and so must re assess your starting R value). Assuming a relative ‘R’ is lower due to lockdown effectiveness I developed a simple equation to calculate/plot a max ‘R’ based on changing lockdown effectiveness, pre existing immunity and R for 1st and 2nd variants, assuming my R from cases would never exceed that I played around with values to match the two but can’t remember where I got to with that, I think I concluded, even without vaccines, sometime in February or March we could have ended lockdown and have herd immunity. But 2 problems; some locations, like Devon might have so few cases they would not have HI, but I think they could perhaps have released London, south east and parts of North in February. If new variants emerge reducing vaccine and recovery immunity we might be in trouble. I was wishing I had a few students to improve this for me and look at a lot more locations around the world.

England01.jpg
Toto
May 3, 2021 4:36 pm

At the beginning of the pandemic, there was discussion of R0 and what the corresponding herd immunity number would be, and of the Gompertz curve. From there the ultimate number of cases or deaths was predicted. It would be interesting to look back at those predictions now.

yirgach
May 3, 2021 4:47 pm

Well, one assumption is that the number of cases reported is somehow a significant value.
I would like to know who considers that number to be so important?
The MSM loves the click bait numbers, but what do they really mean?

dk_
May 3, 2021 5:06 pm

Herd Immunity is like Greenhouse Effect — the analogy doesn’t work outside of a grazing herd species or outside of a real, no kidding greenhouse (note: Saint Svante used the term “Hothouse” which is much different from a greenhouse).
Greenhouses don’t get increasingly hotter because of minor trace gasses, they stay warmer because the structure prevents circulation while allowing sunlight in. They still need additional heat sources to just stay stable when the daily temperature outside is lower than the desired temperature inside.
The theory is that one way a herd becomes partly immune from an external disease is by minimizing the potential contact with outside infection — healthier individuals are prevalent at the interface, protecting more vulnerable individual. The claim is that this protective pattern of behavior is protects in a way similar to the behavior that protects a herd from large predators.
Cool idea, but people don’t flipping act that way. In fact, few other species act that way; not ducks, nor bats nor civet “cats,” nor even domesticated livestock of naturally herding species. They all get viruses that have “jumped” to other species, including humans, because they don’t behave as a herd in response to an undetectable external threat.
Perhaps instead of trying to calculate the impossible, we should stop talking nonsense and start talking removing petty dictators from positions of responsibility.

Last edited 7 days ago by dk_
Mycroft
May 3, 2021 5:22 pm

If the democrats had been in power this would have been a non-issue.

Kit P
May 3, 2021 6:26 pm

This is my first day back in  Washington State.  I am one of those snowbirds who south in the l.  Before heading south last fall, I decided not to get an annual flu shot because the precautions I was taking for covid would keep me safe from the flu.  

I make many decisions based on a personal risk assessment rather than fake news. 

Here is the data I collected for deaths from the Nevada covid-19 website for one year following the baseless lockdown:

< 10 years old = 0.0 %
10-19 = 0.001%
20-29 = 0.005%
30-39 = 0.01%
40-49 = 0.06%
50-59 = 0.1%
60-69 = 0.3%
70+ = 1%

I am in the 70+ group.  I do not find 1% per year alarming.  What I find alarming is governors who want to suck the fun out my remaining time.

I know of two cases where people went to the hospital for one thing and were diagnosed with cancer.  Since there was nothing the doctors could do, they were sent home to die with family at their side.  Both were gone within a week of diagnosis.  

There is no herd immunity for getting old.  The concept of herd immunity with respect to covid is stupid.  

For the record, I have been jabbed twice.  My DIL set up the appointments.  The only benefit for me is my children worrying less about me.  I am lucky to have people concerned about me.  

Neo
May 3, 2021 7:26 pm

Apparently, it is now known in the epidemiology community that herd immunity for COVID is around 77%

Greg
May 3, 2021 7:44 pm

And I would love to hear from any epidemiologists that read my blog.

LOL. How much help have all the “experts” been for the last 16 months?
Simplistic computer models based on assumptions which nothing more than assumptions and have largely been erroneous since the start. Eg. “a totally naive population”. While that is certainly accurate in the political sense it is NOT true in the epidemiological sense. It is not clear that there is a significant natural immune reaction, presumably from exposure to other common corona viruses.

Confinement measures were supposed to “flatten the curve”. This means EXTENDING the length if the epidemic in favour of reducing stress on health care systems. It was NEVER supposed to stop the epidemic, simple spread the pain and make it more manageable.

However, if we look at the “first wave” infections in Europe, the epidemic simple died out and continued falling when restrictions were lifted at the beginning of the summer. This is NOT consistent with simplistic models where the epidemic should being rising again with the same R infection rate from the new lower level of infections.

This was the exact opposite of what happened. If that is the best the academic epidemiologist “experts” have to offer we can sack them all and end this field of study. It has been shown to be totally useless in reality.

Any similarity to the field of climatology is totally coincidental, of course.

Abolition Man
Reply to  Greg
May 3, 2021 10:45 pm

Greg,
I wouldn’t be so hard on epidemiologists! The fear and uncertainty at the beginning of the nightmare caused most supposed experts to chuck the last couple of centuries of science out the window and try something new!
A lot of the blame for this falls on the ChiComs, who pushed lockdowns on Western leaders with no proof that they work! That our leaders were so eager to lock up their whole populations on the recommendation of a tyrannical practitioner of slavery and murder-for-parts, says something rather unflattering about our leaders; and us for selecting them!
There have been quite a few medical doctors and epidemiologists speaking out against the policies being used, but they were rather harshly dealt with by both Big Tech and the fake news media for daring to question the dogma! Very much like what happens in Climastrology!

Greg
May 3, 2021 8:01 pm

Anticipating the effectiveness of mRNA “vaccines” based in a tiny snippet of protein from the target virus is a fools errand.

They are too specific. A recent french language interview with an emminent virologist recently pointed out that if you wanted to design a lab experiment to force a virus strain to mutate its spike protein you would create a petri dish culture where you would introduce an agent which attacked its spike protein and wait for random mutations and natural selective processes to develop a strain with a modified spike protein.

In short, this kind of mass inoculation can be effect in a poplation BEFORE there is widespread infection.

Introducing such a program in a population where the virus is endemic is a sure fire way to CREATE vaccine resistant mutant strains, each requiring a new vaccine and a new vaccination program. Rince and repeat ad infinitum.

As a trillion dollar business model, that strategy seems beyond reproach.

Last edited 7 days ago by Greg
Abolition Man
Reply to  Greg
May 3, 2021 10:47 pm

By George, I think he’s got it!

Vincent Causey
May 3, 2021 11:41 pm

It is way more complicated than that. Firstly, it wrong to say that the pandemic begins with with a zero percent immune population. Epidemiologists have explained that a sizeable percentage (20%, roughly) of the population have immunity through prior exposure to similar corona viruses. How similar? A recent experiment with SARS-1 survivors showed that they produced anti bodies when exposed to SARS-COV-2.

The second issue is the conflation between asymptomatic spread of SARS-COV-2 with asymptomatic spread of COVID-19. These are not the same thing. The first is the virus and the second is the disease it causes. While individual viruses can be transmitted by asymptomatic people, the mere fact they have no symptoms indicates that the viral load is too low to cause disease in people infected. The virus, if passed on, is simply destroyed by the recipients immune system.

Michael Shorts
May 4, 2021 4:17 am

The continued obsession with diagnosed cases is no longer justified. Before the vaccine, we could expect some percentage of sick people would go to the hospital, and some percentage would die.

With the vaccine, we have broken that link between cases and death. By vaccinating the most vulnerable first, the death count has plummeted. That’s why a state like Colorado, with a high case count, but low deaths can reopen.

Any account that includes cases without including deaths is no longer representative of the pandemic.

TonyG
Reply to  Michael Shorts
May 4, 2021 9:49 am

In a world where people are convinced that “case” == “nearly certain death”, case count is a great way to keep the masses cowering in terror and looking to their big brother for salvation.

Jphn
May 4, 2021 4:28 am

Never look for logic when there is none.

The virus does what it does entirely random, just cell chemicals merging, when they meet. Vaccines do what they do, but whether they will provide sufficient immunity at a particular time is always uncertain.

Policies can lower exposure to the point that the virus stops transmitting.

D Boss
May 4, 2021 5:26 am

Your analysis is flawed in that the so called COVID19 virus has never been isolated in any lab in the world (hence if you have not isolated it, you cannot reliably test for it); the PCR tests have been shown to produce as many as 90% false positives as a result of using a teensy fragment of the so called virus, which is common to a host of other known coronavirus’; Flu and similar respiratory illness and deaths have disappeared in the same time that so called covid has manifest (i.e. normal deadly flu virus has been relabeled as the novel coronavirus); and the final nail in the coffin is the jab is NOT a vaccine.

Jabs are not vaccines:

https://principia-scientific.com/covid-19-mrna-shots-are-legally-not-vaccines/

“While the Moderna and Pfizer mRNA shots are labeled as “vaccines,” and news agencies and health policy leaders call them that, the actual patents for Pfizer’s and Moderna’s injections more truthfully describe them as “gene therapy,” not vaccines.”

“According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,1 a vaccine is “a product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease.” Immunity, in turn, is defined as “Protection from an infectious disease,” meaning that “If you are immune to a disease, you can be exposed to it without becoming infected.”

Neither Moderna nor Pfizer claim this to be the case for their COVID-19 “vaccines.” In fact, in their clinical trials, they specify that they will not even test for immunity.

Unlike real vaccines, which use an antigen of the disease you’re trying to prevent, the COVID-19 injections contain synthetic RNA fragments encapsulated in a nanolipid carrier compound, the sole purpose of which is to lessen clinical symptoms associated with the S-1 spike protein, not the actual virus.

They do not actually impart immunity or inhibit transmissibility of the disease. In other words, they are not designed to keep you from getting sick with SARS-CoV-2; they only are supposed to lessen your infection symptoms if or when you do get infected.”

So called Virus has not been isolated:

https://principia-scientific.com/statement-on-virus-isolation-sovi/

https://principia-scientific.com/lab-analysis-at-7-universities-proves-no-covid19-exists/

https://principia-scientific.com/laboratories-in-us-cant-find-covid-19-in-1500-positive-tests/

“A clinical scientist and immunologist-virologist at a southern California laboratory says he and colleagues from 7 universities are suing the CDC for massive fraud. The reason: not one of 1500 samples of people tested “positive” could find Covid-19. ALL people were simply found to have Influenza A, and to a lesser extent Influenza B. This is consistent with the previous findings of other scientists, which we have reported on several times.”

This finding shows why official records show influenza has virtually disappeared while the Covid hype occurred…. it’s a bait and switch scheme….

https://principia-scientific.com/nbc-nightly-news-admits-covid-19-doesnt-even-exist/

“Even NBC news now admits the virus does not exist. Undeniable scientific evidence is growing all over the world that there is no laboratory isolate of the pandemic virus we are told caused COVID19. The entire SARS-CoV-2 narrative has been spun from junk science, data fiddling and a conspiracy among vested interests.”

“The RT PCR test widely use to ‘test’ for COVID19 is not a diagnostic – it cannot diagnose and be a tool in the treatment of a disease. Which means every time Bloomberg, Gates Foundation and Zuckerberg foundation COVID-19 dashboard reports that there is a another case of COVID-19, because of a positive RT PCR test, they are violating the Federal Trade Commission Act.

You cannot diagnose a disease if you have no proven ‘gold standard’ of identification which comes from reproducing an isolation. The claims COVID-19 have been isolated are not backed by any validated laboratory testing. If anyone still claims it has, then it is a misrepresentation, a deceptive practice under the Federal Trade Commission Act.”

PCR test is not a diagnosis, has huge false positives:

https://principia-scientific.com/confirmed-pcr-tests-cannot-detect-sars-cov-2-cause-of-covid19/

https://principia-scientific.com/who-admits-high-cycle-pcr-tests-produce-covid-false-positives/

https://principia-scientific.com/pcr-test-inventor-denounces-their-use-for-disease-diagnosis/

https://principia-scientific.com/now-fda-admits-pcr-tests-give-false-covid-results/

Deaths not substantially different than normal flu seasons:

https://principia-scientific.com/why-we-must-question-the-covid-19-mortality-statistics/

https://principia-scientific.com/media-persists-promoting-fake-covid-19-mortality-numbers/

https://principia-scientific.com/study-covid-infection-fatality-rate-at-only-0-15-percent/

And finally, watch this very accredited and once revered doctor’s short video on the death rate shell game: (he’s been canceled from his speaking out)

https://vernoncoleman.org/videos/final-irrefutable-proof-covid-19-pandemic-never-existed

https://vernoncoleman.org/

He has many books, monograms, and videos which are to say the least very eye opening!

In short while the analysis of herd immunity etc is reasonable if the underlying data were reliable, it is fake/false data, hence the analysis is more like saying UFO sightings caused the recent weather front…..

Warning – do your own carefully informed consent before succumbing to the experimental gene therapy that is falsely labeled as a “vaccine” for Covid!

https://vernoncoleman.org/videos/syringe-full-death

D M
May 4, 2021 5:58 am

Cliff, your approach has merit. You should refine it, and then further enlighten Watts… readers.

Readers should keep in mind that, prior to the Hubbell satellite, amateur astronomers made more discoveries in the cosmos than professionals. Cliff is the equivalent of a smart, amateur astronomer.

The timing issue you mentioned should be pursued.

The arithmetic used to estimate the % “immune” should be refined. More specifically, an allowance for the “twice immunized” should be deducted. Twice imunized means people vaccinated after being infected.

The following illustrates why an allowance is needed. Assume 30% of a state’s population had been infected with C19 before mass vaccinations began. Also assume 50% of the population has been vaccinated. Around 30% of those vaccinated had developed immunity via infection. Thus, the immunized total 30% + 50% x (1-.3) = 30% + 50%x.7 = 30% + 35% = 65%.

The 50% x (1-.3) is admittedly a rough adjustment. Cases can be made for a number greater than .3 and less than .3. Nevertheless, a rough adjustment is better than none at all.

Keep up the good work, Cliff.

william duncan
May 4, 2021 7:24 am

The northern states in the US all seem to have suffered from an increase in April, similar to last year. Perhaps this implies a seasonality to the virus, that may be triggered by immune suppression due to allergies, and coincidently, reduction in white blood cell count for a while after vaccination, adding a little to infection numbers. Perhaps some more virulent strains have also arisen (more likely the further you are from herd immunity). So many factors! Perhaps masks also make it worse by increasing the aerosols expelled from the mask due to the high pressure air forced through the pores of the mask?

May 4, 2021 1:54 pm

India is a warning of what happens from wishful thinking that herd immunity has arrived.
It is a warning of what can happen if we hope that covid-19 will just go away if we ignore it.

Reply to  Hatter Eggburn
May 4, 2021 1:59 pm

India funeral pyres

India funeral pyres.jpg
Old.George
May 4, 2021 5:46 pm

Counting cases could be meaningful. If the CFR is constant and the serious-long-term symptoms are constant, too, then, indeed, counting cases counts.
Using the hyper-sensitive false-positive-generating PCR test makes case-counting problematic.
If the reality is that the increased cases are among those with very low CFR and low probability of long-term issues, then counting cases is counting new members of the herd contributing by recovering. We would expect just such a “harmless” case increase as immune systems fight it off.
The under 16s seem totally safe. 16-66 nearly as good. Even those among the elderly who get it now were not in a nursing home. They were among the relatively healthy old folks. Not obese, not diabetic, not on oxygen, etc. The survival rate even among over 80 is well over what the “average” is because most folks that could die of Covid already did.

George H
May 4, 2021 6:39 pm

Yes,I think Cliff is on it. This morning here in western Washington we were facing an odd roll back of freedoms, not in line with even the most meager official data available.
Now we have learned that or lord governor has chose to pause further inflicted pain. I believe Cliff helped. 👍

May 5, 2021 7:44 am

Certainly many people did not seek medical help thus were not in case statistics, as they did not feel quite ill.

3x is conceivable. And note some people had immunity from something in their past.

‘Herd immunity’ threshold is probably well below 80%, which is the threshold for the more contagious disease MEASLES. (Check news a year or three ago from the Vancouver WA area which had a large outbreak.) But probably over 60%. NWT and YT are nearing that level, as they have many small settlements remote from acute care and having many old people – and probably near poverty in some (dysfunctional reserves like the violent Pine Ridge in the Dakotas are high risk).

Confusing factors however:
– how much protection from the first dose of the two-dose vaccines? Early reports suggest it prevents serious illness, which is the true concern (though irrational flappers and political panderers ignore that).
– mutating virus
– children, who are not much affected and do not shed much virus (adults who do not feel substantially ill don not either), but many flappers and panderers evade that. I give BC credit for resuming in-person schooling last fall, unlike The People’s State of WA.
– misleading statistics about 20-50 yos, with flapping and pandering. The problem is of course health conditions, which individuals may not recognize in themselves. Currently highlighted is obesity which is often accompanied by diabetes and poor nutrition. (Sit on a couch eating pastries all day and you will become a vulnerable potato.) Diabetes can be controlled with medicine and diet, so once recognized need not be a substantial risk factor. I say anorexics are at risk because of bad nutrition (disqualifying for a driver license in at least some jurisdictions. Unrecognized weak heart another, I guess both of those are not common. But control freak politicians like Herr Horgan of BC do not want to be specific, they just blather case totals without normalizing them let alone clearly communicating true risk factors.

George
May 6, 2021 5:56 am

Interesting! Using RT-PCR testing to identify cases is problematic given the inherent problems with the test (cycle time used and the number of false positives). I believe we were at herd immunity much sooner, but varies from state-to-state. Lockdowns only delayed the progression through population and herd immunity as suggested by another comment (Farr’s Law) or what I refer to as the epidemic curve. Cross immunity plays into this and likely explains the asymptomatic and mild infections and likely moderate infections for whom no testing was accomplished for a number of reasons, or specific treatment. Hence, far more cases whom have recovered. Hence, increase in herd immunity within population. Testing should be driven by signs and symptoms rather than just testing those without signs and symptoms. Lockdowns were unnecessary and masks are a joke. PH is about targeting those most vulnerable, not health people. The unintended consequences were far worst IMHO than the coronavirus. Just looking at the infection fatality rate around .15% and the case fatality rate around 1% speaks for itself.

Geo
May 7, 2021 10:12 am

The actual answer is 50% vaccination rate. here is my reasoning:

1) the transmission of the virus between people under 18 is negligible. the young simply don’t get COVID19. Or if they do they are not especially infectious.
2) That cohort is close to 20% of the population.
3) 50% vaccination + 20% under 18 = 70%.
4) Add in 10-15 % natural immunity, from people infected but not vaccinated.
5) 85% immunity = transmission crashes.

Also both the UK and Israel have seen infection rates crash once they got past 50% vaccination.

%d bloggers like this: