Reposted From the NoTricksZone
By P Gosselin on 9. February 2021
The polar vortex theory takes a beating: The claim a warm Arctic is behind the brutally cold winter conditions at the mid latitudes is shown by a Nature study to be scientifically baseless.
Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne.
Now that Europe and North America are getting blasted by unusually severe winter weather, which climate alarmists predicted 20 years ago would be a thing of the past, the alarmists are desperate to find an explanation to escape embarrassment.
PIK science suggests warmth begets cold
They’ve come up with the polar vortex explanation: the bitter cold we are now experiencing at the middle latitudes is in fact due to the warmer Arctic, they say. And this wreaks havoc on the jet stream which in turn results in cold Arctic blasts dipping deep into the middle latitudes. Yes, cold winters are in fact exactly what we should expect in a rapidly warming world!
Levermann and Rahmstorf
For example the two media front men Anders Levermann and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Climate Institute (PIK) have been telling this to the ever gullible German media outlets, like Bild and Spiegel. Yet, many suspect it’s scientific fraud designed to fool the public and to hide the fact that their global warming predictions are in reality glaring failures.
Journal Nature refutes fantasy-rich PIK explanation
For example a recent paper appearing in Nature titled “Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming“, authored by Blackport et al, refutes this highly fantasy-rich hypothesis pitched by the two PIK scientists.
The Nature article writes:
Jennifer Francis, whose seminal work proposed that Arctic warming was leading to a wavier jet stream, predicted in 2014 that “within a few years, as Arctic amplification continues, we will have enough data to know whether or not we’re right”6.
So, six years on, what has changed? Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss have indeed continued (Fig. 1). But predictions of a more negative Arctic Oscillation, wavier jet stream, colder winters in mid-latitudes or, more specifically, in Eurasia, and more frequent and/or widespread cold extremes have not become reality (Fig. 1).
Cold waves have been decreasing
Other experts have also noticed what PIK is doing here. Dr. Roy Spencer wrote at his blog in 2019 that U.S. cold waves have been decreasing, thus contradicting the PIK:
“The trend is markedly downward in the most recent 40 years (since 1979) which is the earliest we have reliable measurements of Arctic sea ice from satellite microwave radiometers (my specialty),” Spencer noted.
“Made to fit where they don’t fit”
Also on Rahmstorf’s claim Arctic warmth begets extreme cold, Swiss veteran meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann tweeted directly:
You never know which is more terrible and unscrupulous, all the right-wing nuts who see a winter weather situation as an argument against the climate crisis or the desperately unscientific @rahmstorf who now also attributes an ordinary winter weather situation to climate change,”
On the Rahmstorf’s approach, Kachelmann adds:
No, there’s hardly any science in the story.
Things are being made to fit where they don’t fit. As always.”
Der Spiegel’s “rubbish”
Unfortunately, the polar vortex tale has been effective at duping the gullible media journalists, like those at Der Spiegel. They too are trying to hide their embarrassment of having been suckered by the manmade global warming catastrophe hoax over the past 3 decades. Kachelmannwetter.com tweets further:
The polar vortex is doing very well.
But because hardly anyone will verify this, because no one knows what it is and what it should look like, @derspiegel throws
throws the principles of editorial control overboard and writes rubbish.”
But don’t expect the media to concede they’ve been duped any time soon. It’s like one famous scientist once said: “Science progresses one funeral at a time.”
It’s going to take awhile longer.
More recently, the converse relationship that the zonal mean zonal wind anomalies slowly propagate from the subtropical upper stratosphere to the polar region of the lower stratosphere and the troposphere during the boreal winter, is also noted (Kodera et al. 1990). It has been shown that SSWs occur in association with slowly propagating zonal mean zonal wind anomalies, and the related changes in the troposphere exhibits the Annular Mode (AO) (Thompson and Wallace 1998) like structure (Kodera et al. 2000). Baldwin and Dunkerton (1999) also showed that the downward propagation of the AO from the stratosphere to the troposphere occurs in association with SSWs.
The daily AO index and its forecasts using MRF and Ensemble mean forecast data are shown for the previous 120 days as indicated and they are normalized by standard deviation of the monthly AO index from 1979 to 2000. A 3-day running mean is applied for the forecast indices.
During extended periods of low solar activity, the distribution of ozone in the Northern Hemisphere is highly asymmetric. Ozone during such periods accumulates first over northeastern Siberia. This results in strong polar vortex blocking in the stratosphere. Later in the winter, ozone falls over North America in so-called stratospheric intrusions. A disruption of the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere occurs, allowing Arctic air to flow southward.
The increased cold this winter may also be related to the drop in water vapor during La Niña.
In Central Europe, heavy frost may persist almost until the end of February. Interestingly, the lows pushed to the south of Europe bring very large amounts of snow in Germany and Poland. This winter may remind someone of the 1970s.
I was in Germany in the winter of 1967, and at one time it snowed about 24 inches. Maybe more. It was knee-deep.
Some thought that the recent strong increase in solar flux of 10.7 cm , heralded an increase in solar activity. How wrong they were.
‘The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.’
There is high agreement of F 10.7 with UV measurements.
The TCI index is also down again since some days.
The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number
F10.7 Radioflux can be taken as proxy for UV radiation.
UV increases after solar flares, so it indicates sunspot strength ( strictly speaking sunspot magnetic activity). This can now be seen in the solar disk, as current sunspots produce at most single C-class flares.
There are no sunspot regions on the earth-facing solar disc today
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/sunspot-regions.html
That graph showing the history of the polar outbreaks looks completely random as to when they strike. I see no connections to any of the quasi cyclical patterns which can be found when viewing temperature history or rainfall patterns.
The media hasn’t been duped… The media’s JOB is to dupe. They need every ludicrous explanation they can get.
In my opinion, ozone as a diamagnetic is repelled by the magnetic field of the solar wind. When the solar wind is strong the wind in the polar vortex accelerates and ozone from the tropical stratosphere cannot get over the polar circle.
Below is the ozone distribution on December 25, 2020.
Tony Heller at realclimatescience.com has pointed out that during the global cooling scare of the 1970s, the wavy Jetstream associated with the polar vortex was associated with global cooling.
https://realclimatescience.com/2018/10/science-understanding-the-jet-stream/
Climate science wants to have it both ways. Proof that it is not science – unless you count political science.
So how do offshore windmills keep the ice off in the North Sea?
“It’s going to take awhile longer.”
Joe Biden leadership {everything goes in the wrong direction- he has never in his life demonstrated any leadership skills} will cause a hastening of the global warming religion’s death.
“duping the gullible media journalists”?
I think not. They aren’t being duped. They just don’t give a damned if what they are “reporting” is accurate as long as it make good copy that sells. Time and again we see them going back to so called “experts” that have predicted catastrophic changes in weather or climate that have not come to pass and for which there is no indications they will. They continue to treat such scammers as legitimate authorities.
Recently there was a cartoon shown here from Josh showing year after year how we have been warned year after year after year that it was the last year we had to take drastic actions to stop or mitigate a coming climate doom. Show me where in the greater media those that have spewed this stuff year after year are challenged or mocked or held accountable in any way! No instead the same media and so called “journalists” continue to “report” their nonsense as if it is based on legitimate science.
A few years ago we went to the Grand Targhee resort for my sons birthday. It’s located in Alta, Wyoming just over the pass from Jackson Hole. They have had over 24 feet of snow this year and currently have a base of 92″.
All over the US, in the NE and West ski resorts have had great snow reports. This on top of some records broken last season when Squaw Valley remained open longer than it ever had in it’s relatively long history. ! Across the pond the same thing! A super year on the slopes if not for COVID, Exactly the opposite of what the climate idiots reported would be happening by now. Show me where some “journalist” from the greater press has gone back to the “experts” that made the predictions that ski industries would suffer due lack of snow due to climate change and called them out on their failed predictions!
These so called climate experts are never held accountable for their silly predictions of doom and gloom even though they are never correct. In fact the ones that make the silliest predictions and have the worst records are who the press seems to seek out for their stories.
When are those that have bought into this constant stream of climate doom BS going to wake up? They have been pumping this catastrophic global warming/climate change crap for nearly four decades now with idiots proclaiming every year is the last year for drastic action to hold off uncontrollable warming. And for a couple decades before that the “experts”, were saying we were cooling and headed for another ice age and were writing the President and proposing all kinds of crazy government programs to try and alter the climate.
P. Gosselin is far too kind.
Forecast of a powerful stratospheric intrusion in the Midwest in the coming days.
Current temperature at the Canadian border. Pressure 1040 hPa.
A large increase in temperature in the lower stratosphere is evident for today.
Was there a similar AO index in 2010-ish?
In 2010 and 2021 we had the beginning of a new solar cycle after a long mimimum.
The wave in the stratosphere is due to ozone accumulation over Siberia and does not form in the troposphere. It is only the blockage caused by ozone that causes the wave to break up the polar vortex.
The idea never passed the smell test. I teach meteorology (to pilots), so know a little about jet streams. They form at the polar front (well the ones in question do, they are called polar front jets) due to the temperature difference between the polar and tropical air masses. So if the arctic warms that temperature difference reducing means that the jets get weaker and shorter (it’s only a jet stream if the wind is over 110 km/h, so in weakening the bits that would have been, for example, 120 km/h might weaken to 100 km/h and no longer be jet streams).
However it is more the shape we are considering here, “wavier jet streams”. Fronts where the temperature difference is large are more active, where it is small are less active. The curvature of frontal wave is itself caused by the temperature difference, as the warm air rises over the cold air causing the frontal depressions (low pressure regions) you can see in bad weather on your home barometer. I cannot see any scenario where a reduction in temperature gradient (as predicted by those models forecasting CAGW) due to warming Arctic can increase the waviness caused by that temperature gradient.
Stratospheric Intrusions are when stratospheric air dynamically decends into the troposphere and may reach the surface, bringing with it high concentrations of ozone which may be harmful to some people. Stratospheric Intrusions are identified by very low tropopause heights, low heights of the 2 potential vorticity unit (PVU) surface, very low relative and specific humidity concentrations, and high concentrations of ozone. Stratospheric Intrusions commonly follow strong cold fronts and can extend across multiple states. In satellite imagery, Stratospheric Intrusions are identified by very low moisture levels in the water vapor channels (6.2, 6.5, and 6.9 micron). Along with the dry air, Stratospheric Intrusions bring high amounts of ozone into the tropospheric column and possibly near the surface. This may be harmful to some people with breathing impairments. Stratospheric Intrusions are more common in the winter/spring months and are more frequent during La Nina periods. Frequent or sustained occurances of Stratospheric Intrusions may decrease the air quality enough to exceed EPA guidelines.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/
This is how the current stratospheric intrusion is currently affecting U.S. temperatures.