Reposted From the NoTricksZone
By P Gosselin on 9. February 2021
The polar vortex theory takes a beating: The claim a warm Arctic is behind the brutally cold winter conditions at the mid latitudes is shown by a Nature study to be scientifically baseless.
Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne.
Now that Europe and North America are getting blasted by unusually severe winter weather, which climate alarmists predicted 20 years ago would be a thing of the past, the alarmists are desperate to find an explanation to escape embarrassment.
PIK science suggests warmth begets cold
They’ve come up with the polar vortex explanation: the bitter cold we are now experiencing at the middle latitudes is in fact due to the warmer Arctic, they say. And this wreaks havoc on the jet stream which in turn results in cold Arctic blasts dipping deep into the middle latitudes. Yes, cold winters are in fact exactly what we should expect in a rapidly warming world!
Levermann and Rahmstorf
For example the two media front men Anders Levermann and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Climate Institute (PIK) have been telling this to the ever gullible German media outlets, like Bild and Spiegel. Yet, many suspect it’s scientific fraud designed to fool the public and to hide the fact that their global warming predictions are in reality glaring failures.
Journal Nature refutes fantasy-rich PIK explanation
For example a recent paper appearing in Nature titled “Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming“, authored by Blackport et al, refutes this highly fantasy-rich hypothesis pitched by the two PIK scientists.
The Nature article writes:
Jennifer Francis, whose seminal work proposed that Arctic warming was leading to a wavier jet stream, predicted in 2014 that “within a few years, as Arctic amplification continues, we will have enough data to know whether or not we’re right”6.
So, six years on, what has changed? Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss have indeed continued (Fig. 1). But predictions of a more negative Arctic Oscillation, wavier jet stream, colder winters in mid-latitudes or, more specifically, in Eurasia, and more frequent and/or widespread cold extremes have not become reality (Fig. 1).
Cold waves have been decreasing
Other experts have also noticed what PIK is doing here. Dr. Roy Spencer wrote at his blog in 2019 that U.S. cold waves have been decreasing, thus contradicting the PIK:
“The trend is markedly downward in the most recent 40 years (since 1979) which is the earliest we have reliable measurements of Arctic sea ice from satellite microwave radiometers (my specialty),” Spencer noted.
“Made to fit where they don’t fit”
Also on Rahmstorf’s claim Arctic warmth begets extreme cold, Swiss veteran meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann tweeted directly:
You never know which is more terrible and unscrupulous, all the right-wing nuts who see a winter weather situation as an argument against the climate crisis or the desperately unscientific @rahmstorf who now also attributes an ordinary winter weather situation to climate change,”
On the Rahmstorf’s approach, Kachelmann adds:
No, there’s hardly any science in the story.
Things are being made to fit where they don’t fit. As always.”
Der Spiegel’s “rubbish”
Unfortunately, the polar vortex tale has been effective at duping the gullible media journalists, like those at Der Spiegel. They too are trying to hide their embarrassment of having been suckered by the manmade global warming catastrophe hoax over the past 3 decades. Kachelmannwetter.com tweets further:
The polar vortex is doing very well.
But because hardly anyone will verify this, because no one knows what it is and what it should look like, @derspiegel throws
throws the principles of editorial control overboard and writes rubbish.”
But don’t expect the media to concede they’ve been duped any time soon. It’s like one famous scientist once said: “Science progresses one funeral at a time.”
It’s going to take awhile longer.
Without this fake “climate crisis” the Great Reset of Prince Charles et-al would go belly up. And that was openly discussed at Davos, Switzerland.
The acutely disastrous financial crisis, which the good Prince would like to avert by writing off 80% of the human population, does in fact need an immediate solution which the good Prince might not like at all – Glass-Steagall bank separation as FDR did in the 1930’s.
It is high time for so-called weather experts, (weathermen?) to actually look at the real world.
Glass-Steagall was pre-FDR, as it was written and debated during 1932. It had become utterly outmoded by the 1990s, and was the source of most commercial banks tettering on the edge of insolvancy because it had closed off sources of business income, but allowed all sorts of new, and competing, modes of banking.
It always seemed to me that the banks could have obtained permission to open entirely separate subsidiaries to capture this business. Banks would have still been held to fiduciary requirements that protected the customer.
Sure Senators Glass and Steagall wrote it up. FDR made it law. Clinton dumped it under pressure of impeachment – Lewinsky-gate.
Since then it has been crash after crash. The bailouts have destroyed the US – healthcare is a wreck. So we have lock-downs to avoid mentioning the bailouts, which ironically will crash what´s left.
So we need Glass-Steagall to make it crystal clear – no bailout.
Anyway any attempt to bailout now is impossible, so they think the Great Reset with a world digital currency (Zuck´s bucks – remember Libra/) will work – it simply cannot.
Prince Charles talks to plants. They are probably the only things that listen to him.
You forgot Tampongate that left Charles in the dark.
So do I but I mostly swear at them.
So do I while logging them….
He may talk to plants and trees but he obviously doesn’t listen. If they could talk, the plants and trees would say they want more CO2, not less.
Chris
The jets have been getting wavier since about 2000 but it takes a while for the consequent cooling to become apparent. The past 40 years may have seen less US cold waves but they are coming back now and it is nothing to do with radiative gases.
https://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/
At times of quiet sun there are more sudden stratospheric warmings, more La Ninas, more clouds and a cooling Earth.
The scientists Haigh and Lockwood gave the answers in much earlier times.
Their analysis was quite different. It was still related to human emissions of radiative gases.
Sorry, I can’t follow you.
Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?
The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future
J.D. Haigh first sees a reason in ozone and a dependency of UV
as written here f.e.
She says this:
‘solar change could influence the probability in the future of further UK winters that are cold, relative to the hemispheric mean temperature,’
So she is suggesting a local West European effect rather than global so as to stop anyone thinking that the solar effect is global. It was a damage limitation paper after the record cold of the UK in December 2010 which was the coldest in 100 years.
And she says:
‘Many questions remain concerning details of the mechanisms which determine to what extent, where and when the solar impacts are felt but advances in understanding are being made’
So there is no attempt at a mechanism whereas I have provided one.
The Haigh paper is from 2009, so the one or / and the other thing wasn’t to well known or researched.
The polar vortex story is not easy to follow, certainely the Arctic vortex will have no influence to the SH.
But if we add the ocean cycle being negative plus La Niña that may change the story in different ways.
It’s currently -46 F in Proudhon Bay, AK, far below normal for mid-February, or anytime there. So it appears the hypothetical Arctic warmth to produce mid-latitude chill is missing. Maybe it’s hiding in the Arctic Ocean. Except that sea ice is presently above average for this date in the past decade.
“ Except that sea ice is presently above average for this date in the past decade.”
Helps if I attach it….
Yeah, in fact, when I looked earlier, it was above 2007 but now NSIDC is down. EMERGENCY, EMERGENCY, get Trofim Karl out of retirement. We need to start measuring Arctic Sea Ice extent using ship’s buckets.
I dunno, looks to me like it’s spot on. That being said, didn’t all the ice disappear in 2013?
It was above on that date, but even more so when you rank the years.
Yesterday Arctic sea ice extent was higher on that date than in any of the past 11 years but two, ie 2020 and 2013. Before that, 2009 was higher.
That’s a great chart. Can you post the URL?
The NSIDC tools show a sharply downward trend, but of course they start in 1979 when sea ice was extremely high.
https://usicecenter.gov/Products/ArcticTrendGraph
The summer minimum extent trend since 2007 has been flat and up since 2012.
Yes, 1979 was near the high of the ~30 year up cycle. We’re now entering the next such cycle, after the three decade down cycle.
According to the chart a quarter million square kilometers of ice was lost from February 3 to Feb.6? Is that possible?
Yes, and blowtorches use fossil fuels for tourist attractions….in Paris no less
PARIS (AP) — Workers at the Eiffel Tower used a blowtorch to melt the ice collecting on its surfaces and snow was blocking roads and halting trains and school buses Wednesday across northern France.
Amid a European cold snap, areas in Normandy and Brittany unused to such icy conditions were closing highways for lack of snow-clearing equipment. In parts of the Paris region, local authorities halted school buses and urged parents to keep their children at home.
Snow blanketed the French capital and froze the Eiffel Tower.
Everyone knows in central Europe it is a Siberian blast that is freezing the beer.
There should be sanctions, I”ll say!
How dare they export such weather! Russian collusion it is!
But … but … but … Obama’s science advisor (John Holdren) said more cold outbreaks create more global warming … https://newtube.app/user/RAOB/3fEZDK4
They do a pretty good job of blocking written reports from leaving the WH science office but that does not prevent the court jesters like Holdren from spinning claptrap science tales from behind the WH podium.
Whatever happened to the meteorite that Bill Clinton claimed was evidence of extraterrestrial life?
I think that Bill Clinton’s meteorite was delayed due to bad weather!
I was invited to interview in the White House Office of Science and Technology. Holdren and a couple of his staff were trying to calculate the spread of radioactive contamination right after the Fukushima event on a whiteboard without any meaningful measured data. They thought they needed to do it before it could be decided what should be done. Like the Japanese weren’t already doing it infinitely better. I suggested people to call in Japan. I was offered a senior position reporting to Holdren but I turned it down. I couldn’t bring myself to work for such an idiot.
The more it warms – the colder it gets.
Towel climate!
(The more it dries – the wetter it gets)
I quit reading at “…Rhamstorf “
I asked this question a few weeks ago in another post.
Doesn’t some or all of the heat from a Sudden Stratospheric Warming eventually escape into outer space?
Yes. So does the “heat” from my toaster.
Let’s not abuse the meaning of “theory”. There is no global warming causes the splitting of the polar vortex theory, it’s baseless propaganda that can be dismissed with five minutes of research.
Imo, the obvious answer to why these splits happen has always been related to strong inflows of surface winds moving into the central arctic, generally from either the Atlantic or Pacific entrances. Although I have noted a few strong surface wind flows which also moved into the Arctic through Central Siberia. I have saved screenshots where this can be readily seen. These surface winds split the colder air over the Arctic which then causes the cold air masses to push southward.
The jet stream has been exceptionally wavy over the last several weeks. I think this is the largest distortion of the jet stream that I have observed since I started paying attention to earthnull. This was from 1/30/21.
The correct use of the term “hypothesis” from the start would have improved the scientific discourse on the subject by a huge degree.
I’m pretty sure it was the warmists who started the game of making every heat wave a sign of the climate apocalypse but every cold snap as nothing more than weather. Apparently according to that Swiss dude if you try to reverse these rules to rebut the warmists it makes you a wild eyed right wing nut. I’m not sure of his logic in attempting to inject political viewpoints into what should be a purely scientific discussion. I hope he’s a better scientist than he is as a political analyst.
The obvious takeaway from Climate Alarmist logic is, the warmer it gets the colder the weather will be….?
And we used to think the Salem Witch hunters were mad.
3 weeks ago on WUWT
Vuk January 18, 2021 6:10 am
“What are the Implications?Very cold February in the North hemisphere“.
See rest of discussion @:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/01/18/the-stratosphere-has-warmed-profoundly-this-month-what-are-the-implications/
From previous posts on wattsup:
The ability to predict is the best objective measure of scientific competence. These climate doomsters have a perfect negative predictive track record – every very-scary climate prediction of the ~fifty they have made in the past has failed to happen.
“MacRae’s Maxim”:
“VIRTUALLY EVERY SCARY PREDICTION BY GLOBAL WARMING ALARMISTS IS FALSE.”
There is a powerful logic that says that no rational person can be this wrong, this deliberately obtuse, for this long – that they must have a covert agenda. I made this point circa 2009, and that agenda is now fully exposed – it is the Marxist totalitarian “Great Reset” – “you will own nothing, and you’ll be happy!”
The proponents of both the very-scary Global Warming / Climate Change scam and the Covid-19 Lockdown scam know they are lying. Note also how many global “leaders” quickly linked the two scams, stating ”to solve one we have to solve the other”- utter nonsense, not even plausible enough to be specious.
Warmists are clearly hopeless at predictions and climate science.
So what can climate skeptics predict?
CO2, GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE AND ENERGY
by Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., June 15, 2019
wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/15/co2-global-warming-climate-and-energy-2/
[excerpts]
This formula works reasonably well back to 1982, which is the limit of my data availability.
5. UAH LT Global Temperatures can be predicted ~4 months in the future with just two parameters:
UAHLT (+4 months) = 0.2*Nino34Anomaly + 0.15 – 5*SatoGlobalAerosolOpticalDepth (Figs. 5a and 5b)
6. The sequence is Nino34 Area SST warms, seawater evaporates, Tropical atmospheric humidity increases, Tropical atmospheric temperature warms, Global atmospheric temperature warms, atmospheric CO2 increases (Figs. 6a and 6b).
I wrote in August 2020:
wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/23/solar-plasma-temperature-is-plunging-should-we-worry/#comment-3068819
Check out NIno34 temperatures, again down to Minus 0.6C – winter will be cold.
Nino34 SST anom’s hit minimums of minus1.4C-1.3C in Oct2020 and Nov2020 – global coldest temperatures (+4 months) should be Feb2021 and Mar2021.
In 2002 I (we) also predicted solar-driven global cooling to commence circa 2020, and unfortunately that prediction is looking more and more probable – I’d rather be wrong – I’m getting old and hate the cold. The forecast low tonight in Calgary is minus31C – that’s the temperature, not the wind chill estimate, which would be even colder.
Indeed so. Someone said “scientists should listen to nature and not tell nature what to do”
Here is that someone playing bongo
https://youtu.be/2Ks8gsK22PA?t=9
T
Sheveluch volcano powerful eruption happened 22 Dec 2020
10mb temperature (red line) was falling back just prior to 22 /12/21 then suddenly took off for the next 2-3 weeks and by mid Jan it was more less over. From that point polar vortex gets weaker and weaker and jet stream goes into stronger and stronger meridional flow.
When there is a sudden and large outbreak of arctic air toward lower latitudes, that air must be replaced somehow. In many cases its replacement is warmer air from lower latitudes flowing into some sector of the arctic. Thus, a warmer arctic might be observed simultaneously with colder temperate regions. This is meridional flow, and we have observed periods when it is more or less intense since the beginning of modern observational meteorology post WWII.
No doubt, we’d all be better off with a majority of “science” journalists who do not suffer from Dunning-Kruger syndrome. I have no suggestions about how to correct the present state, however.
When polar vortex is strong it keeps the Arctic jet stream in fairly regular circular circulation. The appearance of the SSD tends to weaken polar vortex which then looses control of the jet stream resulting in pronounced meridional flow, whole process may take few weeks from the initial SSD spike..
It is not entirely clear what causes the SSD but I strongly suspect winter eruptions from one of Kamchatka’s volcanoes, as I wrote here 3 weeks ago:
It appeared to me that within a few weeks of a Kamchatka volcanic eruptions sending huge volumes of ash high into atmosphere the SSW event occurs.
“Tue, 22 Dec 2020
Sheveluch volcano (Kamchatka, Russia): powerful eruption A few hours later, at 19:30 local time on today evening, another strong explosion detected by Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Tokyo produced spectacular ash plume rising up to 28,000 ft (8,500 m) altitude and extended about 130 km to the southeast of the volcano. Incandescence continues to be observed in the crater identified in satellite data.”
More of discussion here :https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/01/18/the-stratosphere-has-warmed-profoundly-this-month-what-are-the-implications/#comment-3164834
You can watch all of that take place on a daily basis by observing what earthnull shows. That is such an amazing app. It is like looking out of a window and realizing “I see what is happening.”
The many delusional agw scientists should use earthnull every day, and they would soon wipe away their delusional concepts of how the climate processes of the planet work.
https://earth.nullschool.net
I read somwhere, that an Arctic MPH (Mobile Polat High, Marcel Leroux) was involved.
http://www.applet-magic.com/MPH.htm#:~:text=Mobile%20(Moving)%20Polar%20Highs%20and%20the%20Weather&text=Marcel%20Leroux%2C%20an%20empirically%20oriented,away%20from%20the%20polar%20regions.
Leroux was an very interesting scientist.
Unfortunaly most of the publications are in French, but you can DL for free:
Publications téléchargeables de Marcel Leroux
Global warming – myth or reality? : the erring ways of climatology / Marcel Leroux.
I read it in French, the first link provide the link for DL
And I found
« The Mobile Polar High: a new concept explaining present mechanisms of meridional air-mass and energy exchanges and global propagation of paleoclimatic changes »
for download.
Leroux was sound in relation to mobile highs.
He did not move on to the upper atmosphere mechanisms over the poles that would be required to cause the phenomenon.
You have to get increases in ozone above the poles in order to force the polar tropopause down and push the mobile highs outwards and towards the equator.
When the sun is quiet ozone declines in the lower stratosphere below 45km and it was thought that that also applied above 45km (which is near the mesosphere). It was then found that it actually increased above 45km over the poles when the sun is quiet. Hence my mechanism.
A quiet sun increases ozone in the mesosphere which then falls towards the lower stratosphere within the descending column of air over the poles. That is where the extra ozone is coming from to cause sudden stratospheric warmings over the Arctic especially and occasionally over the Antarctic.
The ozone was what J.D. Haigh spoke about. But she wasn’t completelys aware at this time, what the role of decreased UV was what we know now better, see TCI, the not so old index.
I’m not sure what the date was, the role of ozone was known or better known. On the one hand, Leroux’ paper about MPH is from 1991, and he was a synoptic meteorolgist.
“MPHs are the result of the downward air motion over polar regions, in connection with the permanent negative energy balance at the sur- face. Cooling, more intense in winter, creates an inversion, according to the synoptic situations, which is observable in the Arctic area below 2000 m. This “Arctic inversion is maintained in ~ts normal position and intensity both by surface cooling and by subsidence, as well as by warm air advection aloft” (Vowinckel et al., 1967).
[…]
As a result of their absolute or relative density and their dynamism, they force around them the uplift and the polewards devia- tion of the surrounding (less dense) airflows With these deflected airflows, they form a mobde “di- polar vortlce” consisting of an anticyclonic branch (i e., the Mobde Polar High), and a cyclonic branch (i.e., the low or “cyclone”)”
Citaion out of the Leroux MPH paper.
There is confusion over the term polar vortex. Leroux focuses on the circumpolar flow in the troposphere but I refer to the descending column of air over the poles in the stratosphere. Both are referred to as the polar vortex in differing contexts. The media generally refer to the first one in the troposphere.
My hypothesis integrates the combined effect of both on the degree of meridionality or zonality in jet stream tracks.
You wrote:
Leroux focuses on the circumpolar flow in the troposphere but I refer to the descending column of air over the poles in the stratosphere.
And what did I cite from Leroux ?
MPHs are the result of the downward air motion over polar regions, in connection with the permanent negative energy balance at the sur- face.
So, where is, in your view the contadiction ??
Leroux is talking about events in the troposphere, not the stratosphere. Mobile Polar Highs are a troposphere phenomenon.
Most interesting, thanks for the link.
Rahmstorf knows about TCI, Haigh and Lockwood, nevertheless this deplorable priest of climatechurch can’t stop to spread his BS to follow his inhuman agenda.
And to think, there are still people who claim global warming alarmism has nothing to do with politics.
By the way, the quote is that “Physics advances one funeral at a time.” Max Planck. It does, however, apply to everything else.
Agree Kevin. I used to do business travel, driving much of the time, with a friend and he described small towns to small cities he knew about as 2 funeral town, 4 funeral town, and so on.
If, at a certain time in winter, the Arctic was unusually warm, and nearby Canada or Europe was unusually cold, heat would tend to travel from warm to cold (as it usually does). In this case, it would cause the Arctic to get colder and the neighboring Canada or Europe to get warmer, resulting in a moderating of the cold snap.
Also, if cold air has moved out of the Arctic south into Canada and Europe, the air over the Arctic must be replaced by air moving north somewhere else. By the way, is Siberia unusually mild right now?
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2021.png
Warm ? The Arctic ? 😀
What’s the reason one png is shown, the oher not ?
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2021.png
Part of Alaska, Greenland, Iceland & far north Scandinavia (N. Atlantic) and far East Siberia are warmer than usual for this time of the year.
You show us a forecast.
from 2 days ago, not likely to change much, jet stream usually gets stuck for few weeks
Which jet is stuck where? I teach students that the average position of the polar-front jet in the North Atlantic in late January is from Florida to the Iberian Peninsula. We are a little after January, but things change slowly until March. If you check out the position of the Jet Stream in the North Atlantic there appear to be two (the third is, I think, on the Arctic front), and they go from well north of Florida. One then tracks somewhat south, the other to the Iberian Peninsula. So … not really south of where it usually is this time of year.
Note also that they are strong, up to 160 kt (300 km/h). This indicates a large temperature difference, contrary to the hypothesis that the cause is Arctic warming.
Reference: 00Z (midnight) on 13 February 2021 Significant Weather Chart for the North Atlantic here https://www.avmet.ae/metcharts.aspx
Depends what you mean by warm
Central Greenland
EGP 2021-02-09 00:00:00.0
Temperature (°C): -34.32
Windspeed (m/s): 3.93
Incoming Sunshine (W/m²): -0.05
Southern Greenland
QAS_U 2021-02-09 00:00:00.0
Temperature (°C): -7.64
Windspeed (m/s): 8.77
Incoming Sunshine (W/m²): 0.38
From http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
“Warmer than average” in Greenland in February is sort of disingenuous semantics.
Better would be: “Not quite as extremely cold, but still very cold.”
… well yes, but in such a long sentence I would have at least two spelling errors.
Hi Ben
“Southern Greenland Temperature (°C): -7.64”
That is ‘warmer’ than London, tonight forecast is -8C
Get set for minus 20C! Met Office predicts coldest night in 11 years and a white weekend as it extends snow warnings until Saturday for large swathes of Britain.
This is Surrey (few miles south of London)
Trafalgar Sq.
Vulcano 100% ice in Kasahstan
It’s a freezing source 😀
Looks like this will allow some time for deflection press statements and word choices in Europe before it gets much worse for them in rotation.
All places with very little surface temperature data available. Interesting, huh? The places with the highest quality surface data (not great, but better than everywhere else) are cold.
Okay, so are we going to NAME this cold period, or just wait a few more years?
Now, to be fair about it, last winter and the winter before were pretty mild by comparison to the single digit winter I have to put up with up here in my kingdom.
However, if there is a cycle pattern, as in the 1967 blizzard that hit Chicago (not in the forecast), and periodic episodes of mild winters followed by nasty blasts (1977, we got buried) full of snow and thundersnow w/lightning, and mild winters followed by beastly cold ones (Feb 2011 and now Feb 2021), isn’t that important enough to look at and analyze? And who can forget Boston Harbor being so full of snow dumped into it that it was completely clogged? Never mind Buffalo, NY being buried by a blast from the lake.
If there’s a pattern of nasty cold winters versus and that shows up in weather records, that has more bearing on the subject than some disgruntled sort sitting in his office, wondering why he’s cold and how to get rid of snow.
I suspect not, in a way you might blame Russians, one might say, they happen to own the source of the cause, see my comment above.
No, they just claim that they own it. It really belongs to the Mongols who inhabit the steppes, and they’re moving indoors these days. In fact, they are having a winter at least as bad as ours, because they did not harvest/stock enough hay for a brutal winter (duh!!! Guys, where do you live???) and their herds are dying off.
This looks like a pattern to me, that’s all.
Well, that was supposed to go below Vuk’s comment. My bad.
So then the fact that winters are warming refutes the idea that winters are cooling due to global warming. That makes sense, I guess.
“Now that Europe and North America are getting blasted by unusually severe winter weather”
People on the skeptical side of the Climate War ought to stop the whoop de doo about a few days of colder than normal. As near as I can tell from everything I look at and confirmed by my back porch thermometer, bitter cold snaps aren’t happening much any more.
Here’s the yearly low extremes for Milwaukee:
Prior to 1996 fifteen to twenty below Fahrenheit happened quite often. For the last 25 years it’s happened once in 2019. NOAA’s Climate at a Glance confirms that winter lows are getting warmer. They do mess with the numbers, so it may not be that dramatic, but it pretty much agrees with the Wisconsin Climatology Office.
Our wonderful friends at Skeptical Science created the escalator and you have to give them credit, it’s pretty good. Normal weather doesn’t call for claiming we are being blasted by severe weather.
“People on the skeptical side of the Climate War ought to stop the whoop de doo about a few days of colder than normal. “
The article is about Alarmists™ trying to justify cold weather in a warming world.
Skeptics just call it winter.
“NOAA’s Climate at a Glance confirms that winter lows are getting warmer.”
That would make sense since it has been warming since about 1980 to the present.
But now, it’s not warming, or, flatlining, if you will, so warmer winters may be a thing of the recent past.
One warming cycle is not enough to predict the future climate.
Tom & Climate Believer:
My point is, that just because we’ve had a week or so of colder than normal weather, it doesn’t warrant the terms, “Blasted by unusually severe … weather” Those of us on the skeptical side of the Climate War need to understand that the numbers are on our side, that’s why the Alarmists won’t debate. As such, we don’t need to exaggerate, cherry pick, create straw men etc. or on the other side of things allow them to set the agenda and create the terms & language.
Thanks for the replies. (-:
The person who made the original claim about cold weather, was a warmist, not a skeptic.
But even a short time of cold weather can prove that predictions by the alarmists are wrong. You can’t prove predictions like “snow is a thing of the past” with a few years without snow, but you can prove it is wrong with a few periods of snow fall every year.
Yes, I know the 2007 prediction said there would be some, but since 2010 the area the prediction related to has had more than one period of snow almost every year, and quite a lot some years (I happen to be able to pinpoint winter 2009/10, because I was training for a new job while finishing a contract so had a lot of driving on empty roads; winter 2017/18 because I returned to the country from living abroad, having snow the time we came to buy a car and find temporary accommodation, the time we moved in there and the time we moved back into our own house). So noting these frequent times of snow doesn’t prove we are right but it does prove they are wrong!
Steve, your graph looks very similar to the AMO.
We make the whoop de doo in order to ridicule the alarmists that make the whoop de doo every time someplace gets a little bit warmer than normal.
Mark W –
I doubt they see it that way (-:
And that highlights their hypocrisy.
It is all Warmist Cognitive Dissonance fighting off the reality they are facing. They even appear to believe what they say themselves.
~Mark Twain~
When climate change theory “predicts” every possible outcome, then it is no longer science but a religion. That is where PIK and most of the climate charlatans are now, in a world of junk science that is crossing over into a “take it on faith” environmental religion.
The southern hemisphere and the tropics have cooled down, now it’s time for the northern hemisphere. It’s going to be a long winter.
The Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) is a phenomenon characterized by a rapid increase in polar temperatures in the stratosphere. The temperature increases more than a few dozen degrees in a few days in the boreal winter. In some cases the westerly polar night jet disappears and easterly winds appear during the warming. JMA is monitoring SSWs as one of the Regional Warming Centers. The warming is called a “Minor Warming”, when the polar temperature increases more than 25 degrees in a period of a week or less at any stratospheric level. If the zonal mean temperature increases poleward from 60 degrees latitude and the net zonal mean zonal winds become easterly at 60 degrees latitude at 10 hPa (32 km) or below, it is classified as a “Major Warming”.
ren,
Thanks for your comments.
It should be noted that this warming occurs at 10hPa, about 30,000m in altitude, far above the tropopause which normally prevents lower level mixing by convection. But every other year this mixing happens, only in the stratospheric polar vortex, which only exists in winter due to temperature gradient created by lower solar incidence angle. The tropospheric polar vortex persists year round and is normally isolated from the stratospheric vortex.
To understand this it is necessary to understand vertical Rossby waves. This warming is virtual, colder stratospheric air pushed lower and compressed isoentropically, so essentially no change in potential temperature.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/04/record-antarctic-stratospheric-warming-causes-sept-2019-global-temperature-update-confusion/#comment-2813848
Edit: The eaps.mit link to the Charney reference no longer works, here is another:
https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/43318829/3-stratospheric-rossby-waves-mit
Johanus
strong SSW can even reach the upper troposphere, as seen in the graphic below. In the lower troposphere, however, the temperature dropped.
Yes, the reddish-orange structure is the space-time profile of the stratospheric polar vortex, which intrudes downward into the troposphere in January. But only in response to a previous upward intrusion, as Charney-Drazin explained, by the tropospheric polar vortex (aka the ‘wavy’ circumpolar Rossby belt) which is actually the edge of the planetary polar front jet stream. The undulations of the NH coastlines and mountainous topography (‘orography’) are largely the cause of these vertically travelling Rossby waves.
Charney, J.G. and Drazin, P.G.,
“Propagation of Planetary-Scale Disturbances from the Lower into the Upper Atmosphere ”
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/397c/5695239b1bbf0e4b81ea0084c880fd4a18cf.pdf [1961]
These two types of polar vortices are otherwise completely independent and isolated from one another.
“What is the Polar Vortex”
https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/waugh/research/polarvortex/
Will there be a positive anomaly in 48 states in February?
More recently, the converse relationship that the zonal mean zonal wind anomalies slowly propagate from the subtropical upper stratosphere to the polar region of the lower stratosphere and the troposphere during the boreal winter, is also noted (Kodera et al. 1990). It has been shown that SSWs occur in association with slowly propagating zonal mean zonal wind anomalies, and the related changes in the troposphere exhibits the Annular Mode (AO) (Thompson and Wallace 1998) like structure (Kodera et al. 2000). Baldwin and Dunkerton (1999) also showed that the downward propagation of the AO from the stratosphere to the troposphere occurs in association with SSWs.
The daily AO index and its forecasts using MRF and Ensemble mean forecast data are shown for the previous 120 days as indicated and they are normalized by standard deviation of the monthly AO index from 1979 to 2000. A 3-day running mean is applied for the forecast indices.
During extended periods of low solar activity, the distribution of ozone in the Northern Hemisphere is highly asymmetric. Ozone during such periods accumulates first over northeastern Siberia. This results in strong polar vortex blocking in the stratosphere. Later in the winter, ozone falls over North America in so-called stratospheric intrusions. A disruption of the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere occurs, allowing Arctic air to flow southward.
The increased cold this winter may also be related to the drop in water vapor during La Niña.
In Central Europe, heavy frost may persist almost until the end of February. Interestingly, the lows pushed to the south of Europe bring very large amounts of snow in Germany and Poland. This winter may remind someone of the 1970s.
I was in Germany in the winter of 1967, and at one time it snowed about 24 inches. Maybe more. It was knee-deep.
Some thought that the recent strong increase in solar flux of 10.7 cm , heralded an increase in solar activity. How wrong they were.
‘The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.’
There is high agreement of F 10.7 with UV measurements.
The TCI index is also down again since some days.
The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number
F10.7 Radioflux can be taken as proxy for UV radiation.
UV increases after solar flares, so it indicates sunspot strength ( strictly speaking sunspot magnetic activity). This can now be seen in the solar disk, as current sunspots produce at most single C-class flares.
There are no sunspot regions on the earth-facing solar disc today
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/sunspot-regions.html
That graph showing the history of the polar outbreaks looks completely random as to when they strike. I see no connections to any of the quasi cyclical patterns which can be found when viewing temperature history or rainfall patterns.
The media hasn’t been duped… The media’s JOB is to dupe. They need every ludicrous explanation they can get.
In my opinion, ozone as a diamagnetic is repelled by the magnetic field of the solar wind. When the solar wind is strong the wind in the polar vortex accelerates and ozone from the tropical stratosphere cannot get over the polar circle.
Below is the ozone distribution on December 25, 2020.
Tony Heller at realclimatescience.com has pointed out that during the global cooling scare of the 1970s, the wavy Jetstream associated with the polar vortex was associated with global cooling.
https://realclimatescience.com/2018/10/science-understanding-the-jet-stream/
Climate science wants to have it both ways. Proof that it is not science – unless you count political science.
So how do offshore windmills keep the ice off in the North Sea?
“It’s going to take awhile longer.”
Joe Biden leadership {everything goes in the wrong direction- he has never in his life demonstrated any leadership skills} will cause a hastening of the global warming religion’s death.
“duping the gullible media journalists”?
I think not. They aren’t being duped. They just don’t give a damned if what they are “reporting” is accurate as long as it make good copy that sells. Time and again we see them going back to so called “experts” that have predicted catastrophic changes in weather or climate that have not come to pass and for which there is no indications they will. They continue to treat such scammers as legitimate authorities.
Recently there was a cartoon shown here from Josh showing year after year how we have been warned year after year after year that it was the last year we had to take drastic actions to stop or mitigate a coming climate doom. Show me where in the greater media those that have spewed this stuff year after year are challenged or mocked or held accountable in any way! No instead the same media and so called “journalists” continue to “report” their nonsense as if it is based on legitimate science.
A few years ago we went to the Grand Targhee resort for my sons birthday. It’s located in Alta, Wyoming just over the pass from Jackson Hole. They have had over 24 feet of snow this year and currently have a base of 92″.
All over the US, in the NE and West ski resorts have had great snow reports. This on top of some records broken last season when Squaw Valley remained open longer than it ever had in it’s relatively long history. ! Across the pond the same thing! A super year on the slopes if not for COVID, Exactly the opposite of what the climate idiots reported would be happening by now. Show me where some “journalist” from the greater press has gone back to the “experts” that made the predictions that ski industries would suffer due lack of snow due to climate change and called them out on their failed predictions!
These so called climate experts are never held accountable for their silly predictions of doom and gloom even though they are never correct. In fact the ones that make the silliest predictions and have the worst records are who the press seems to seek out for their stories.
When are those that have bought into this constant stream of climate doom BS going to wake up? They have been pumping this catastrophic global warming/climate change crap for nearly four decades now with idiots proclaiming every year is the last year for drastic action to hold off uncontrollable warming. And for a couple decades before that the “experts”, were saying we were cooling and headed for another ice age and were writing the President and proposing all kinds of crazy government programs to try and alter the climate.
P. Gosselin is far too kind.
Forecast of a powerful stratospheric intrusion in the Midwest in the coming days.
Current temperature at the Canadian border. Pressure 1040 hPa.
A large increase in temperature in the lower stratosphere is evident for today.
Was there a similar AO index in 2010-ish?
In 2010 and 2021 we had the beginning of a new solar cycle after a long mimimum.
The wave in the stratosphere is due to ozone accumulation over Siberia and does not form in the troposphere. It is only the blockage caused by ozone that causes the wave to break up the polar vortex.
The idea never passed the smell test. I teach meteorology (to pilots), so know a little about jet streams. They form at the polar front (well the ones in question do, they are called polar front jets) due to the temperature difference between the polar and tropical air masses. So if the arctic warms that temperature difference reducing means that the jets get weaker and shorter (it’s only a jet stream if the wind is over 110 km/h, so in weakening the bits that would have been, for example, 120 km/h might weaken to 100 km/h and no longer be jet streams).
However it is more the shape we are considering here, “wavier jet streams”. Fronts where the temperature difference is large are more active, where it is small are less active. The curvature of frontal wave is itself caused by the temperature difference, as the warm air rises over the cold air causing the frontal depressions (low pressure regions) you can see in bad weather on your home barometer. I cannot see any scenario where a reduction in temperature gradient (as predicted by those models forecasting CAGW) due to warming Arctic can increase the waviness caused by that temperature gradient.
Stratospheric Intrusions are when stratospheric air dynamically decends into the troposphere and may reach the surface, bringing with it high concentrations of ozone which may be harmful to some people. Stratospheric Intrusions are identified by very low tropopause heights, low heights of the 2 potential vorticity unit (PVU) surface, very low relative and specific humidity concentrations, and high concentrations of ozone. Stratospheric Intrusions commonly follow strong cold fronts and can extend across multiple states. In satellite imagery, Stratospheric Intrusions are identified by very low moisture levels in the water vapor channels (6.2, 6.5, and 6.9 micron). Along with the dry air, Stratospheric Intrusions bring high amounts of ozone into the tropospheric column and possibly near the surface. This may be harmful to some people with breathing impairments. Stratospheric Intrusions are more common in the winter/spring months and are more frequent during La Nina periods. Frequent or sustained occurances of Stratospheric Intrusions may decrease the air quality enough to exceed EPA guidelines.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/
This is how the current stratospheric intrusion is currently affecting U.S. temperatures.