by spaceweather.com team
Earlier this month, atmospheric scientists noticed something unusual in the Arctic stratosphere. The polar vortex was spinning backward.
“The vortex changed direction around March 4th,” reports Dr. Amy Butler, author of NOAA’s Polar Vortex Blog. “It was a substantial reversal, reaching -20.5 m/s a few days ago, which puts it in the top 6 strongest such events since 1979.”
wo weeks later, it is still spinning backwards. What’s going on?
“Atmospheric planetary waves have been breaking in the polar stratosphere, increasing its temperature,” says Butler. “We call this a ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming‘ event, and it can cause the vortex to change direction.'”
In recent years, many people have heard the phrase “polar vortex” because of the effect it can have on winter weather. When the polar vortex is strong and stable, it helps confine cold air to polar regions. When the vortex weakens or becomes disturbed, cold air spills out to lower latitudes.
This month’s backward vortex has *not* caused an outbreak of winter weather. Instead, it has produced a very strong increase in polar ozone.
“Sudden Stratospheric Warming events accelerate the transport of ozone from the tropics to the poles,” explains Butler. “Also, warming air helps prevent chemical ozone loss.”
The current ‘ozone spike’ — the opposite of an ozone hole — is the biggest in the month of March since record-keeping began in 1979.
Soon, things could return to normal. The vortex’s backward-spin is slowing, and “could become westerly again in about 10 days,” says Butler. If so, the ozone spike will subside.
Stay tuned for updates from the stratosphere.
Ozone hole = BAD
Ozone spike = BAD
Changing Climate = BAD
Static Climate = UNHEARD OF
Sorry, Bryan A, but you are wrong about ‘Static Climate’. There is only one category for today’s climate. If a static climate ever does occur, it will necessarily be in that one category. Please note also that there is only one category for past climate, ie. GOOD.
This reversal sounds like a good thing rather than a bad one. And it seems to happen regularly. I wonder, does this have anything to do with La Nina versus El Nino? Has anyone checked the measurements?
Today, far too many “scientists” fail to understand the scientific method. And “climate scientists” fail to understand the climate. Deliberately, it seems.
We need a Renaissance of science.
Yes, the “Great Reset” needs to be completed in scientific practices before worrying about energy policy settings.
Climate scientists get paychecks to identify any potential problems…so you aren’t going to find a single one of them that says the climate is great and their job is of no use to humanity. The constant attempts to relabel “bad weather” as “climate change” should make that apparent.
‘Bad weather’? You mean ‘weather’?
Given the vast majority of research grant money comes from governments, any researcher that disagrees with the topic of the research or challenges the government agenda will lose his grant and be blacklisted. Buy their loyalty or buy their silence.
I have yet to see or meet a scientist with a degree in climate science.
Loads of climatologists and computer model programmers.
Physics, chemistry, yes. Fluid dynamics, computers (yea, yea, called computer science, but it isn’t true science), and thermodynamics are engineering fields.
Mathematics is not science, and it may still be under arts.
You can put a cape on a dog, but that does not transform him into superman (unless the dog gender identifies as such / sarc).
“I have yet to see or meet a scientist with a degree in climate science.”
It’s often an honorary degree for activists like James Hansen.
Quite simply, the polar vortex suffered its third breakup this winter, and since it is already late in the season, it is not forming again. It is just doing what it does from mid-April to late August.
Observe the three sudden stratospheric warming events when the zonal wind at 10 hPa stops moving from West to East (positive speed). This is the first time it has happened thrice in the same winter. The most likely cause is the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption of 2022.
Would it be fair that we don’t yet have a good understanding of this phenomenon?
Our understanding of most climate phenomena is superficial at best.
The MetOffice has an article featuring Adam Scaiffe talking about this phenomenon and saying it is a one-in-250-years event.
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2024/03/06/one-in-250-year-event-underway-high-in-the-atmosphere/
But he is wrong in saying that the Hunga Tonga is not behind it. Several things point to it.
We just had three extremely unusual events in a row: Hunga Tonga, the extraordinary warming of 2023, and the three SSW this winter. What does William of Ockham say about looking for three independent causes?
None of those three SSWs were classified as strong. The stratospheric polar vortex is in its final days and will slowly disappear until next winter. This event isn’t called a SSW, but a ‘Final Warming’, as the temperatures in the stratosphere do not drop again until next autumn.
But what happens to the ozone is interesting, as we still have a lot of water in the stratosphere after Hunga Tonga:
The stratosphere contributes 20% of the atmospheric poleward heat transport above 70°N during winter. And with the Brewer-Dobson circulation comes the ozone.
Since 1997 the polar vortex has weakened, leading to accelerated winter warming in the Arctic relative to the rest of the planet.
“The Winter Gatekeeper hypothesis of climate change is based on the understanding that the variable winter transport of heat to the polar regions leads to changes in radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere.” Vinós, Javier. Solving the Climate Puzzle: The Sun’s Surprising Role (p. 388).
I suppose the record ozone level seen now supports the WGH?
Yes, it does. The strength of the polar vortex is very much affected by volcanic eruptions. Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric increase in sulfate aerosol warms the stratosphere leading to stronger winds and a stronger vortex. But Hunga Tonga’s increase in water vapor cools the stratosphere leading to weaker winds and a weaker vortex. This results in increased heat transport to the Arctic, increasing the temperature as reported by the Danish Meteorological Institute.
The increase in ozone is due to increased transport by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, as you say, as ozone is produced in the tropical stratosphere.
The decrease in water vapor that is going to take place in the stratosphere over the next few years is going to be a cooling forcing that is not being expected. 2024 could still be another record year in temperature, but in 2025-27 each year should be cooler than the previous one.
Love to hear about these natural phenomenon from those with more knowledge than myself. Funny that in general those who are most knowledgeable about such things are also the most cognizant of how much we DON’T know about them. Anyway, thanks gents, love learning new tidbits each day.
The more posts I read on WUWT the more I realise just how complex and inter-related the atmosphere is. And just how little these climate activists know about it when they make their pronouncements, invariably wrong, as an ‘expert’ on the subject.
By dumbing it down to a level they can actually deal with, they have lost any hope of understanding it or finding out how it all works.
There is certainly not enough observed data to make an assessment of a ‘once in 250 year occurrence’. To have this happen may well be a combined result of several unusual events or it may, coincidentally, happen every 10-12 years and we just haven’t noticed it before. Silly to assume a rare occurrence on flimsy data – he should’ve said that it’s not something seen before and needs more investigation.
We’re saved! 4O₃+CH₄-> 4O₂, CO₂, 2H₂O
“Saved, Boot, saved!”
I’m that old I can remember when it was called the Jet Stream.
The northern jet stream is further south.
Well, the Jet Stream is in the troposphere and the Polar Vortex is in the stratosphere. See the illustration at the top of the article.
As an aside, the Jet Stream was discovered by aviator Wiley Post when he began flying in the upper troposphere. But since he wasn’t a scientist, he not often credited with its discovery.
I must stop with my dad jokes.
But thanks for the snippet about Wiley Post.
I’d always thought that Wasaburo Oishi flying weather balloons was first to describe the Jet Stream. This was in late 1920s. The Japanese used the discovery to send unguided bombs to the US West Coast in WW2.
Wasaburo Oishi was probably the first but not widely read outside of Japan. It was first observed in 1883 with the Krakatoa eruption, Oishi discovered in the 20’s but Wiley Post was probably the first to experience it in flight.
On March 31, temperatures in southern Greenland will drop to -45 C, with ground below -50 C. Heavy frost in Svalbard and Iceland.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=76;-54;2&l=temperature-2m&t=20240331/03&src=link
https://i.ibb.co/7GnXvfM/hgt300-1.webp
Unusually low temperatures for March on Svalbard until the end of the month.
Hey, it is just unwinding…… chill !!
Unwinded already:
How do you know?
It might be winding up, like a baseball pitcher, for a really big throw! 😲
Interesting.
Nevertheless or just therefor, Arctic Seaice Extent is 2. highest since 2020:
15.094 3/11/24
14.646 3/5/23
14.933 2/21/22
14.865 3/11/21
15.155 3/4/20
14.833 3/11/19
14.504 3/14/18
I’d say the polar vortex is spinning the way nature intends. It is we humans who want to say it’s backwards. 😉
OMG! We’re all gonna die.
Which is true, at least over the next century or so.
How do they know it is ‘unusual’ and how do they know what is ‘normal’? Nobody possibly can with only 4 decades of data.
This is what the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere looks like now.
The wind can change, the temperature can change, the rains and snows can come and go, but the conclusions that humans are causing a climate disaster goes on forever absent any evidence.