Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I see that a number of health organizations are calling on Zhou Bai-den to declare a “climate health emergency”. From the American Lung Association:
WASHINGTON, D.C. | January 26, 2021
Today, 26 national health and medical organizations delivered a Declaration on Climate Change and Health to President Joe Biden and congressional leadership underscoring climate change as a health emergency and calling for immediate action to protect the public’s health from the current and future impacts of climate change.
Ever notice how these kinds of folks never specify just what a degree or two of warming is supposed to do to our health? It’s just like the declarations of a “climate emergency” in general. Where is the “emergency” inherent in a slight warming?
In any case, I thought I’d look at what the temperatures are where humans set up residence. Here are the annual average monthly temperatures for 444 cities all around the globe.
Figure 1. Histogram, average annual temperatures of 444 cities. The two cities with annual temperatures below -10°C are Dikson, Russia, and Gjoa Haven, Canada. The warmest city is Assab, Eritrea, average temperature 30.5°C (87°F). I note once again that almost nowhere on earth is the annual average temperature above ~30°C.
People are happily living in cities with annual average temperatures from -14°C to 30.5°C (6°F to 87°F) …
Now, most of the warming in the last century has occurred in the extratropics, in the winter, at night. I find it amazing that people can believe that a slight warming of winter nights outside the tropics is going to lead to a “health emergency”. But then, as H. L. Mencken observed, “No one in this world, so far as I know … has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” And sadly, these days that includes the great masses of climate alarmists.
However, that’s only part of the story. In each of these cities, the monthly average temperature varies over the course of the year. Figure 2 shows the size of the annual variation from the coldest to the warmest month.
Figure 2. Histogram, average annual temperature ranges of 444 cities. The city with the largest range is Yakutsk in Siberia, where the coldest month is -38.6°C (-37.5°F) and the warmest month is 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Almost a third of these cities see an annual swing greater than 20°C (36°F) … again, what “health emergencies” will come from a couple degrees C of warming when the annual swing is greater than that in about 94% of all cities?
Finally, here is the total range of monthly temperatures where people live in cities.
Figure 3. Histogram, average monthly temperatures of 5,328 months of data from 444 cities. The most common monthly temperature is in the range of 26°-28°C (78.8°-82.4°C)
Again, given the 80°C (144°F) range of monthly average temperatures shown above where people live and thrive, I can’t think of how a couple of degrees C of warming mostly at night in the winter is going to cause any conceivable “health emergency”.
I suppose none of this should be any surprise. It was all laid out in 1841 in the book “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” by Charles McKay, available online here. But then, nobody ever accused us humanoids of being quick learners en masse … from the Preface:
In reading the history of nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities; their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do.
We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.
We see one nation suddenly seized, from its highest to its lowest members, with a fierce desire of military glory; another as suddenly becoming crazed upon a religious scruple; and neither of them recovering its senses until it has shed rivers of blood and sowed a harvest of groans and tears, to be reaped by its posterity.
At an early age in the annals of Europe its population lost their wits about the sepulchre of Jesus, and crowded in frenzied multitudes to the Holy Land; another age went mad for fear of the devil, and offered up hundreds of thousands of victims to the delusion of witchcraft. At another time, the many became crazed on the subject of the philosopher’s stone, and committed follies till then unheard of in the pursuit.
Welcome to 2021, where we’re still as prone to popular delusions and the madness of crowds as we were in 1841 …
In totally unrelated news, my latest tale of wandering among the homeless is up on my blog here, comments welcome.
My very best and warmest regards to everyone, and please, can we stop with the “climate emergency” nonsense?
w.
PS—Misunderstandings are the bane of the intarwebs. I can defend my own words. I cannot defend your interpretation of my words. Accordingly, when you comment I ask that you quote the exact words that you are discussing, so that we can all be clear just what and who you are talking about.
I am very glad to see Charlie Mackay getting the mention he so richly deserves.
Other visionaries who warned us about the idiotic ways humanity can behave include Julian Simon, George Orwell, Thomas Kuhn and C Northcote Parkinson…
I’m not much of a fan of science fiction, but a number of science fiction writers have outlined future idiotic societies and ways; Ray Bradbury’s Fahrenheit 451 has plenty of the current madness in it, and Robert Heinlein, of course; but a not very well known work, Marching Morons, by Cyril Kornbluth, which I always thought a poor bit of work, now seems to summarize our world pretty well — we are living in a bit of bad science fiction.
Zhou Bai-den…Wa Ta Hoot
Another good one was Fallen Angels, by Larry Niven, Jerry Pournelle, and Michael Flynn.
To sustain madness, you need a strong secret police and a large oppressive apparatus. Anybody identified as The Enemy of Truth will be sent to a deprogramming camp. German skills in organizing huge projects will be replicated.
We have to deprogram about 74 million of voters, plus their families. That means a huge number of wardens and prison guards, all paid handsomely. The new prosperity is coming!
“a huge number of wardens and prison guards” — former pipeline welders!
Sad to say.
You can always count on Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.
Winston Churchill
lol
I was under the impression that health emergencies occurred more often in colder weather. I mean, there is a cold and flu season and now apparently a covid season all associated with colder temperatures. So why world health organizations would want to make the world colder is beyond me. Go figure.
Doonman wrote:
“I was under the impression that health emergencies occurred more often in colder weather.”
You are correct: “COLD WEATHER KILLS 20 TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE AS HOT WEATHER”
Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae, September 4, 2015.
Those who argue with your statement are not just wrong; they are imbeciles.
______________
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/17/alarm-about-alarmism/#comment-2104459
Joe d’Aleo and I had written a paper on Excess Winter Mortality based on other evidence when the major Lancet study was published, so we revised our paper to include that excellent study. Our summary reads:
“Cold weather kills. Throughout history and in modern times, many more people succumb to cold exposure than to hot weather, as evidenced in a wide range of cold and warm climates.
Evidence is provided from a study of 74 million deaths in thirteen cold and warm countries including Thailand and Brazil, and studies of the United Kingdom, Europe, the USA, Australia and Canada.
Contrary to popular belief, Earth is colder-than-optimum for human survival. A warmer world, such as was experienced during the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period, is expected to lower winter deaths and a colder world like the Little Ice Age will increase winter mortality, absent adaptive measures.
These conclusions have been known for many decades, based on national mortality statistics.”
COLD WEATHER KILLS 20 TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE AS HOT WEATHER September 4, 2015
by Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf
____________________
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/23/the-evils-of-climate-enthusiasm/#comment-2164819
[excerpts]
The elderly and the poor in the United Kingdom, Germany and other countries are suffering increased winter deaths due to high energy costs. In the UK, this human disaster is called “Heat or Eat”.
The Excess Winter Mortality Rate in Britain is much higher than that in Canada. Canada has a population of about 35 million and the UK about 65 million, but Excess Winter Mortality in Canada is about 5000 to 10,000 per year, and in the UK it is 25,000 to 50,000 per year.
Canada and the UK have genetically similar populations and similar health care systems. Canada tends to be colder but mostly drier than the UK. However, Canada generally has much lower energy costs and better-insulated housing and probably better central heating systems, on average. This suggests that adaptation to winter and low energy costs are significant drivers of lower Winter Mortality rates.
Imagine IF the UK had competent politicians in the past several decades instead of warmist imbeciles. Instead of spending billions on green energy debacles, they could have spent the funds on improving home insulation and central heating, and encouraged fracking of shales to reduce natural gas prices., and a whole lot of grannies and grandpa’s would still be alive for their grandchildren.
Cheap, abundant, reliable energy is the lifeblood of society – it IS that simple.
When politicians fool with energy systems, real people suffer and die.
Regards, Allan
I was under the impression that health emergencies occurred more often in colder weather.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/17/alarm-about-alarmism/#comment-2104459
Joe d’Aleo and I had written a paper on Excess Winter Mortality based on other evidence when the major Lancet study was published, so we revised our paper to include that excellent study. Our summary reads:
“Cold weather kills. Throughout history and in modern times, many more people succumb to cold exposure than to hot weather, as evidenced in a wide range of cold and warm climates.
Evidence is provided from a study of 74 million deaths in thirteen cold and warm countries including Thailand and Brazil, and studies of the United Kingdom, Europe, the USA, Australia and Canada.
Contrary to popular belief, Earth is colder-than-optimum for human survival. A warmer world, such as was experienced during the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period, is expected to lower winter deaths and a colder world like the Little Ice Age will increase winter mortality, absent adaptive measures.
These conclusions have been known for many decades, based on national mortality statistics.”
Cold Weather Kills 20 Times as Many People as Hot Weather September 4, 2015
by Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/23/the-evils-of-climate-enthusiasm/#comment-2618246
[excerpts]
The elderly and the poor in the United Kingdom, Germany and other countries are suffering increased winter deaths due to high energy costs. In the UK, this human disaster is called “Heat or Eat”.
The Excess Winter Mortality Rate in Britain is much higher than that in Canada. Canada has a population of about 35 million and the UK about 65 million, but Excess Winter Mortality in Canada is about 5000 to 10,000 per year, and in the UK it is 25,000 to 50,000 per year.
Canada and the UK have genetically similar populations and similar health care systems. Canada tends to be colder but mostly drier than the UK. However, Canada generally has much lower energy costs and better-insulated housing and probably better central heating systems, on average. This suggests that adaptation to winter and low energy costs are significant drivers of lower Winter Mortality rates.
Imagine IF the UK had competent politicians in the past several decades instead of warmist imbeciles. Instead of spending billions on green energy debacles, they could have spent the funds on improving home insulation and central heating, and encouraged fracking of shales to reduce natural gas prices, and a whole lot of grannies and grandpa’s would still be alive for their grandchildren.
Cheap, abundant, reliable energy is the lifeblood of society – it IS that simple.
When politicians fool with energy systems, real people suffer and die.
Regards, Allan
Thanks, Allan. I didn’t want to touch that question because in my opinion the methods used are not well thought out. See, eg, Heat And Cold Related Deaths.
The problem is that the deaths are being compared to the “optimum temperature”, which is the temperature of that part of the year where deaths are at a minimum. The assumption is that the other deaths are “excess deaths”, and that if the temperature was kept at an optimum, the minimum death rate would apply year-round.
For example, the widely-quoted Lancet study says:
But that leads to the wrong comparison. The comparison should be to the annual average temperature and the annual average mortality, not to the “optimum” temperature and the minimum mortality. We only have a minimum of deaths in the summer because we have “excess deaths” in the winter … but if the temperatures were even all year, it would simply spread the average deaths out over the year. We wouldn’t get deaths related to the minimum death rate, we’d get deaths given by the average death rate.
Now, if you calculate it the proper way, we’d still have excess deaths from heat and cold, and the cold deaths would indeed be larger than the heat deaths … but the numbers would be different. And I haven’t yet done the calcs of what the real numbers should be, so I didn’t discuss it.
My best regards as always, and thanks for your many contributions,
w.
PS—Allan, I’ve also read but don’t have the reference to a claim that deaths from heat merely accelerate deaths that would naturally have occurred in a short time, but that deaths from cold kill otherwise healthy people. Don’t know if it is true, but it sounds reasonable …
w.
Hi Willis and thanks for your kind comments.
We wrote our 2015 paper to show that COLD KILLS, and a warmer world will be a kinder, safer world – even in warmer climates.
In our 2015 paper, total monthly mortality from all causes were plotted for the UK, Canada and the USA. That demonstrates the reality – total deaths typically peak in the Northern Hemisphere circa Jan-Feb and ebb circa July-Aug.
Year 2020 was the exception due to Covid-19 – total deaths from all causes peaked in Europe in early April 2020 (Euromomo). I don’t have readily available total death stats for North America, but deaths attributed to Covid-19 peaked in April 2020 as well (Worldometers).
I suggest that the USA Covid-19 death totals are highly inflated – deaths from heart attacks, cancers, car crashes etc were reportedly all coded as Covid-19. Per capita Covid-19 deaths in Alberta to 1Dec2020~were only about 1/7 those of the USA. Nevertheless, the April 2020 USA death peak appears credible. The “second wave” Winter 2020-2021 Covid death stats are also suspect – seems that nobody dies of old age or other causes anymore.
In the UK “Excess Winter Deaths” are calculated as follows:
The methodology behind the maths is surprisingly simple; the ONS take an average of deaths in winter (those in December to March) and subtract the average of non-winter deaths (April to July of the current year and August to November of the previous year). The result is considered ‘excess’.
Not sure why the Lancet study used the terminology you mentioned – perhaps because some of the countries studied were Southern Hemisphere or tropical.
Best personal regards, Allan
Allan,
I can’t help but wonder if your analysis translates to all countries. For example, are the ‘excess’ deaths in Bangladesh, India, and Brazil overwhelmingly the result of cold or heat?
I suspect that there is an optimal temperature and any significant deviation from the optimal results in anomalous deaths. From that, with annual temperatures being sinusoidal, one would conclude those regions with an average temperature on the low side of optimal would see an excess of cold deaths, and those on the high side of optimal would see an excess of heat deaths. Although, the situation is complicated because, as Willis and I have shown, the temperature graph is highly skewed.
Hi Clyde,
Re your question:
As I wrote above to Willis:
The answer to your question is:
Generally Yes – but the difference between cold deaths and warm deaths is less in tropical countries than in colder countries, as one would expect – see the first figure in our 2015 paper, copied from the Lancet study.
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf
From my wattsup post circa 2015:
Correction to the above post – I wrote it in a rush:
For the record, I am not convinced that we will see any significant long-term global warming due to increased atmospheric CO2. I think the small temperature changes we’ve seen in recent centuries are primarily natural and cyclical, and are mostly driven by natural solar and oceanic cycles. I’m with Tim Patterson, Willie Soon and Nir Shaviv on this point.
The global cooling period from ~1940 to 1977, starting when fossil fuel consumption strongly accelerated, shows that increasing fossil fuel combustion has little if any warming effect on global temperature. [Full-scale test!]
In 2002 I published that global cooling should start again by 2020-2030 due to low solar activity. In 2013 I published that cooling should start circa 2020, at the end of SC24.
Joe D’Aleo and I wrote a paper on that too:
THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED
By Allan M.R. MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 27, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/
(excerpts)
I’d like to be wrong – I’m getting old and hate the cold.
(wry smiley-face)
Hi again Willis, you wrote:
I agree with you re the Lancet study – numbers would be different but cold deaths would still be greater than warm deaths – even in warm countries like Thailand and Brazil.
Getting good stats for monthly total deaths by country should be easy, but to quote Borat: “not so much” – for the UK, England and Wales have common stats, but one has to add-in separate data for Scotland and also for Northern Ireland.
For the USA, it is easy to find highly questionable country data for Covid-19 deaths, but not so easy for total deaths – these are broken down by state, county etc but try to find a good summary without doing a ton of work. [The good news is nobody dies of old age, other flu’s etc anymore.]
Good luck if you choose to go down this analysis path – it could take time. I’ve tried to back away from such time–consuming data analysis – too many other priorities.
Having said that, I’ve spent way too much time on Covid-19, and much of the data is false – in the USA, deaths WITH Covid are reported as deaths FROM Covid – the Covid mortality stats are worthless alarmist nonsense – concocted by wolves to stampede the sheep.
A BIG-PICTURE CONVERSATION ABOUT COVID-19 IS NEEDED
Anthony Furey, Toronto Sun, Feb 1, 2021
Anthony Fury of the Toronto Sun has been talking common-sense re Covid-19 – highly unusual in the mainstream press.
Of course Covid-19 is seasonal – highly so – it’s like most other seasonal flu’s, but has been hugely overblown by the usual alarmist “scoundrels and imbeciles”, for their usual reasons.
Me, I started out analyzing the COVID data … but then I realized that the numbers are total garbage.
w.
Exactly correct Willis! Me too! We published similar conclusions on the same day – 21March2020 – NO LOCKDOWN! Most of the Covid-19 data was alarmist nonsense, especially the UK modelling!
I located some quality data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship and a few other sources, which indicated that Covid-19 was a relatively mild flu, only significantly dangerous to the very elderly and infirm – so rationally, we should over-protect that high-risk population and get everyone else back to
school and work.
I reached that conclusion by ~1March2020 but was cautious about publishing, until my physician friend confirmed that his hospital had been emptied of regular patients to make room for the “tsunami of Covid cases” that NEVER ARRIVED! Starting ~1March2020, his 600-bed hospital was typical for Alberta – essentially empty except for an average ~2 Covid-patients – and this debacle lasted for 8 weeks until our government health authorities finally rescinded their foolish “empty-hospitals” order. We now have huge waiting lists for deferred tests and treatments.
Incidentally, Alberta is still in near-full lockdown – restaurants are still closed except for take-out – partial-freedom day is 8Feb2021 (restaurants half-open) unless the lockdown is extended due to renewed hysteria. Many of our most cherished small businesses have been destroyed, gone forever, their owners and employees devastated.
Alberta deaths just from opioid overdoses have doubled during the lockdown, and by ~1Dec2020 had increased by ~500 to ~1000 – average age ~30 years. Compare that to Covid-19 deaths to ~1Dec2020 – total ~500, average age 82 years.
Years-of-life-lost just from opioid OD’s totals ~25,000. Suicides are way up as well, as are alcohol abuse, family violence, child abuse, etc. This full lockdown never made any sense and still does not!
For many months now, the full-Gulag lockdown for Covid-19 has resembled not just a huge error, but a deliberate scam – no rational people could be this stupid and destructive for this long.
Final comment – I take the flu shots every year, but I will not take the experimental mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) nor should anyone else, imo – the serious reaction rate is ~3%, about 1 in 30, vs a risk of dying (for under-65’s in Alberta to ~1Dec2020) of 1 in 300,000 – 13 total deaths of under-65’s in a population of ~4 million. The risk-reward for the mRNA vaccines is far too high.
Mortality data – world by country
https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/
Fascinating, Allan, thanks.
w.
Look at where we as a species evolved, vs where most of live today.
Yes – I agree,
Not so sure we are having a flu season this winter if the numbers we’re given are true it appears covid has cured flu, silver linings and all that… Sarc
covid is this year’s flu.
I wrote above:
As soon as everyone is vaccinated for Covid-19, nobody will die ever again! We will all live forever! It’s a Miracle!
[Do I need to say “sarc”?]
Lots of people have heart attacks and die 24 hours after shoveling snow in bitter cold
There are no similar stats showing hot weather physical activity has similar 24 hour impact
Patently absurd claims. Where I live the temperature range is from -40Cin winter (rare occurrence) to +40C in summer (also a rare occurrence). I recall working at a tennis club one summer in the 1980s and it was 38C outside. Courts remained full, people hydrated and didn’t panic at all. Weird.
It has been both warmer than 40C by a couple of degrees and colder than -40C on occasion during my lifetime. Both temperatures are extremes and require precautions. But nobody outright stops in either extreme. I’m not sure it gets much colder than that regularly in populated locations and while it certainly gets warmer, there is an acclimation effect there as well. Neither affected the means in the slightest.
Buggs, Great Falls by chance? I worked there briefly one spring; have visited many times. Record high is 42C, record low is -45C, per NOAA.
I worked in -55c in NE BC in 1992, drilling rigs.
When everything is shutdown and quiet it is weirdly amazing.
It’s the center of an intense winter high pressure system, crystal clear sky and dead air, you can hear a branch fall kilometers away.
A Phelps dodge rig was ordered by home office to lay over the tower, apparent the Push said no at first but they wanted it moved. Not supposed to do it below ~-40.
Apparently cable broke with the peak only 20’ off ground, rig shattered like glass
Rig mover guys said exploded like bomb, no pieces over a few feet.
I did not see it.
Same cold spell one of my heavy duty winter rig boots broke, just cracked.
Cold sucks, now 55 I like it less every year
And stuck here locked down in calgary
Eff this!!!!
I saw 125F in the Coachella valley (California) one day. I soon discovered that I was the only one left alive:):). I have also seen snow on the desert floor. The temperature swings there are sometimes much more than 30 degrees.
Yes, temperature swings might easily be from 110F mid-day to 30 before sunrise, for a total of 140F or 60C.
I have spent a lot of time in the desert, and I lived two Winters in Vermont (besides growing up in Norther Illionois), where it frequently got below zero. At about -10F, stepping outside, the hair in one’s nostrils would immediately freeze. At about -20F, if you spit, it would freeze before hitting the ground, and bounce.
One obvious difference is that you can keep adding layers of clothing to keep warm. However, there is a limit to how much one can take off! I have experienced what was at least 118F (in the shade) in a car without air conditioning. It felt better to keep the windows rolled up. It helped to have a spray bottle to mist our almost naked bodies every 15 minutes. I once spent a day swimming in the American River (CA) when it was probably 120F. We were alright until a breeze would blow up the canyon. It flash-evaporated the water and increased the relative humidity, causing all of us to cough, feeling like we were in a steam sauna.
My conclusion is that both extreme heat and cold are dangerous. However, it is probably easier to deal with cold than heat. I’m reminded of the scene in the movie Dr. Zhivago, where Zhivago steals boards from a fence to take home to burn. Putting boards on a fence doesn’t cool you.
Interesting data, Willis. If you look at figure 3 you can see it is not a normally-distributed population (bell-shaped curve). So the first two figures show the adaptive capacity of humans, whereas the third shows the choice of humans, ie, people want to live where it’s warmer. The writings of McKay, and others, in my opinion, shows what is happening with the Biden Administration. The left had their cause, CAGW, and it became a religion to them, and it became a dysfunctional mess, then along came Covid-19, and replaced the CAGW crisis, and they switched to it. Now, vaccines and adjusted conduct all over the place, the Covid-19 crisis starting to appear to be headed for control, so back to the CAGW crisis we go. John Kerry? Biden has assembled a team to tilt at windmills and their voters will follow them.
John Kerry reminds me of one of Don Quixote’s giants. All full of windy bluster and waving his arms about. 😉
John Kerry’s ashen complexion is a telltale sign of severe hardening of the arteries (CVD).
theyre not as thick as his head, yet
The most vulnerable populations in the world are those who saved their money and are being eyed for wealth redistribution in the name of agenda science.
It happened before in literature….
“Yet across the gulf of space, minds that are to our minds as ours are to those of the beasts that perish, intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, regarded this earth with envious eyes, and slowly and surely drew their plans against us. And early in the twentieth century came the great disillusionment.”
War of the Worlds.
Sure didn’t take long for Bidenesque climate silliness to emerge.
Cancel an already permitted KXL on day one, meaning the Alberta oil just flows thru the expanded Transmountain pipeline for export to Asia. Doesn’t do anything for ‘climate’.
And now in week 2, 28 ‘health’ organizations advocate a nonsensical ‘climate health emergency’.
Gonna be a long 4 years.
“Gonna be a long 4 years.”
I think we need a new approach to dealing with Human-caused Climate Change and the Green New Deal. We need to cast doubt on it from a new direction.
I’ll elaborate later.
It’s later.
We need a new approach to fighting back against the Green New Deal. Implementing the Green New Deal will send the U.S. economy into a tailspin it might not recover from, so we don’t want to go there if we can prevent it.
In the past, in order to shoot down the Human-caused Climate Change narrative, we have argued about bogus
Hockey Sticks, and manipulated temperature data, and the flawed computer models, and a thousand other things that are wrong with the Human-caused Climate Change narrative. And there is enough ambiguity in all these things that it allows the Alarmists to continue to argue their case, with some success, certainly with the Elites.
It is a difficult task to argue against the Human-caused Climate Change narrative because to successully argue it, you have to be conversant in many scientific fields, and most people don’t have the knowledge to cover the whole topic.
People have to come to places like WUWT to get the full story. Even knowledgeable people, because hardly anyone is well-versed in every subject. So you have to go to someone who is.
This applies especially to Republican politicians. Some of them try to argue against Human-caused Climate Change, but most submit to the meme and turn into Lukewarmers. They don’t argue against the validity of the Human-caused Climate Change narrative because they don’t have the skills, so they instead focus on how the Green New Deal will harm the U.S. economy. But this does not allay the fears that Human-caused Climate Change is real and dangerous and is going to be here soon, and it does not stop the narrative that we need to do something about it, as soon as possible, by controlling CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. So, the economic argument won’t stop the Green New Deal from appearing to need to be implemented.
We need a new approach: Dr. William Happer
Dr. Happer is one of the foremost experts on radiative gases in the world. He’s the guy that taught astronomy
observatories how to use lasers to compensate for the moving atmosphere above their telescopes, which allowed the telescopes to modify their mirrors on-the- fly, and produce much better pictures of space.
Dr. Happer’s latest paper posits that the CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere at the present time (415ppm) is “saturated” and as a result, CO2 cannot raise the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere beyond what it has already done today. Dr. Happer says CO2 in effect, has a ceiling on the warmth it can add to the Earth’s atmosphere, and we are currently at that limit. If we add more CO2, the temperatues won’t rise.
If Dr. Happer is correct, then this means that humans no longer have to worry about CO2 causing runaway warming, and this means that there is no need for us to spend Trillions of dollars on the Green New Deal mitigation. We don’t need to spend even one dollar if Dr. Happer is correct.
So is Dr. Happer correct? His paper has not been reviewed by the scientific journals yet.
I think Republican politicians should *all* meet with Dr. Happer and have him explaiin his paper to them.
Then, Republicans should insist, that before any measures are taken to curtail CO2 or oil, gas, and coal, that it should be required that Dr. Happer’s ideas be examined and either proved or disproved, even if it takes a Manhattan Project-style effort.
If Dr. Happer’s paper is validated, then this would eliminate the need to implement a Green New Deal. This, obviously, would be enormously beneficial to the whole world.
The only people this wouldn’t be beneficial to, would be the socialists who want to use Human-caused Climate Change as a means of taking over the world. If Dr. Happer is correct, the socialists can “go fish”.
The Alarmists cannot argue against Dr. Happer’s paper being examined, because they don’t know if he is correct or not, just like the rest of us. The only way to know is to look into it and Republicans should insist on this.
It’s much easier to argue for validation of current research than it is to argue the ins and outs of Human-caused Climate Change. Republicans should make it easy on themselves and leave the arguing to Dr. Happer.
Actual lab measurement shows the energy absorption saturates around 200ppm.
.
Tom,
Happer’s findings also mean that the subtraction of CO2 from the air would also cause trivially small temperature changes, until CO2 was down to the 100 ppm level, roughly.
This has implications for emission reduction plans like net zero by 2050 for example. Geoff S
How about the papers that show that human emissions of CO2 increase the atmospheric content only slightly. So it not only will not cause more warming we arn’t making much of the increase so we should not try to fix something we have not broken. I like your idea of Republicans demanding some proof of costs and benefits of our new laws. I think the EPA enacted rules that require that of new laws while Trump was in office.
Tom, I like your approach
But
My greatest anger with Trump is this was not done in the 4 years he was president, I saw no coordinated effort to attack these fallacies.
But I will go further and say this will go nowhere if the same people pushing this review also believe Q-anon, pizzagate, pedophiles and lizard people running things.
The USA is just like canada , there is ~10-15% in the middle that decide elections, the core on either side won’t switch.
You win in the center.
Trump was personally too toxic for too many, that’s how it is. Now he has cost us KXL, and the extra crazy stuff flipped the Georgia senate seats.
If the republicans stay on the crazy train they will not take both sides of congress in 21 months, that needs to be the immediate goal.
Even the insane can’t crater the USA by then
But if the democrats maintain control after 2022, forget it.
Meanwhile, the balance of Biden’s crazy energy policy will constrain American production and raise the world price of oil so that is a benefit to me and my industry.
“But I will go further and say this will go nowhere if the same people pushing this review also believe Q-anon, pizzagate, pedophiles and lizard people running things.”
That does not apply to any Republican in Congress, other than possibly one woman, and I’m not sure about what she believes.
This QAnon crap is just another gambit on the part of the Leftwing Media to demonize all Republicans by trying to tie them to some extremist group.
The Proud Boys is another example. I don’t even know what the Proud Boys stand for, or Qanon for that matter, and don’t care to learn, except now I guess I have to because the Leftwing Media forces me to debunk this crap.
No regular Republican believes in any of this stuff. It’s all ginned up by the Leftwing Media as a means to trash Republicans, and the propaganda works on some people.
Republicans are not extremists. They are not racist. These are lies told about them by the Left.
Tom,
I don’t think that there is ever an end to potential warming from CO2. I believe Happer’s position is that it takes a doubling in concentration to increase the temperature a fixed amount. This is because while the peak may be saturated, the wings of the 15u absorption feature will widen with increased CO2. The temperature will asymptotically approach a finite limit. However, if the true climate sensitivity is less than 2 deg C, and we are near the top end of potential absorption, we can expect the rate of temperature increase to slow down significantly.
I recently saw this paper which describes an experiment that appears to show that CO2 warming is saturated.
“The results of our study show the near-identical heating curves when we change from air to 100% CO2″
https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=99608
A wrong approach. The current political scene is driven by hysteria. Logic and hysteria don’t mix.
You can change a person’s mind with facts and reason only to the extent their current beliefs are based on facts and reason.
For most people, emotions Trump facts and reason every time.
Darn autocorrect!
Hence Trump Derangement Syndrome
I’m with you George.
The evolved rationality that homo sapiens sapiens was originally imbued with has been supplanted by “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”.
I won’t be around to see how this latest episode of irrationality plays out, but I can only hope for the sake of future generations that it runs its course as all the other “popular delusions” have.
And sooner rather than later . . .
“Logic and hysteria don’t mix.”
That’s true in the Public Square, but what we want to do is get the scientific community to pay attention to Happer’s research. Republicans should insist on it, if, as it appears, it could be a gamechanger in the Human-caused Climate Change narrative.
The Republicans should say Dr. Happer’s research looks like a Gamechanger, and it should be determined as to whether it is valid or not, before going forward with crippling our economy by implementing the Green New Deal or any part of it.
Dr. Happer’s research should not be that difficult to confirm or deny, and it should not take very long, either, especially if it becomes a political priority.
Republicans should make it a prioty. It might save all of us a whole lot of trouble and a whole lot of money, for minumum effort. And Republicans don’t have to argue the science of climate change, they just have to argue for confirmation or invalidation of Dr. Happer’s work. That ought to be pretty easy to do.
Rud
No, the heavy oil will still go to the gulf, just by rail.
More emissions, more spills, more stupid.
Or you’ll get it from maduro, such a reasonable fellow
But it will get there.
Transmountain expansion completion still long way off
But I’m happy to ship more heavy oil via tanker to Asia and Texas and reduce the amount of refined products shipped to vancouver.
They are proudly going to ban ICE vehicles by 2040, I figure why not get them started early.
We can have $3 a liter in vancouver by next month, just to show them what it really means.
The only thing positive to come out of Biden’s actions is that an Executive Order can be overturned by another Executive Order. Now, if (in the British vernacular) everything is sufficiently cocked up, Republicans will have a good chance at writing new Executive Orders in 4 years. That is, assuming, that Congress can make certain that there is little opportunity for voting fraud next time, which might be another silver lining.
House Bill 1 and Senate Bill 1 are requirements that all states permit mail in voting and all but outlawing any attempts to remove dead and moved voters from voter rolls. It also outlaws any form of voter id, both at the time of registration and the time of voting.
If these bills pass and are allowed by the courts, the Democrats will never lose another election.
That’s the danger we face.
That, and criminals in the White House who have used the power of the federal government to help their own personal political ambitions.
“At an early age in the annals of Europe its population lost their wits about the sepulchre of Jesus, and crowded in frenzied multitudes to the Holy Land; another age went mad for fear of the devil, and offered up hundreds of thousands of victims to the delusion of witchcraft. At another time, the many became crazed on the subject of the philosopher’s stone, and committed follies till then unheard of in the pursuit.”
All those examples Mackay gives revolve around religion, or belief in the supernatural, or superstitions. And most of us have already realized that Climate Change is the Left’s pagan religion. So much for any science in Climate Change. It went out the window with deceptions from the Climate Priesthood.
Michael Crichton understood what were the deception artifice of Environmentalism.
I would also note that today’s declarations for face-covering wear in public places to “combat the transmission of COVID” has no science behind it, especially as the mandates do not specify any kind of effectiveness measures for an approved “face cover” mask (like properly fitted N95, etc) nor any eye coverings to protect the eyes from the same aerosols that enter the airways. SCIENCE tells us is what is needed (minimum fitted N95 + complete eye coverings) in the clinical and research lab settings. What I see out in public that passes as approved-mask wear is abad joke, bandanas, cheap cloth masks with people letting their nose hang out, no one says anaything. All a big frigging joke.
So basically the COVID face covering/mask mandates for the public are nothing but a Rabbitsfoot-like superstitions to ward off the COVID evil spirit, also known as a talisman superstition. It is Junk science at work being peddled by Dr. Anthony Fauci who clearly must know this. But he plays his part in the deceptions of making people they think are doing something to help. It’s sort of like getting rid of those store plastic bags and the Public virtue of carrying your own re-usable bags in the store to “save the planet from plastics”, that are now back because of COVID superstitions.
So many mass delusions around now with the Left’s “science” which is mostly nothing but superstitions and pagan beliefs.
I dunno….Just sneezed on my computer screen, and now I wish I’d been wearing a mask…..
Yes, but they’re great for protecting your respiratory system when cleaning out the cat box, so I’m keeping them. Even the least dusty cat litter produces dust when disturbed. I have NO desire to get silicosis, so I’m in favor of using them for that purpose. 🙂
I use them when sanding, especially sanding dry wall plaster. They clearly have their place as larger particle filters to protect the lungs and nasal sinuses. But to stop a 100 nm virus riding on 300-500 nm aerosol particles, they are worthless.
I did actually see a WalMartian last week wearing a full-face respirator, with cartridges and all walking around the store. At least he understood what was necessary to protect himself from an airborne small respiratory virus.
I was issued one at work. I toyed with the idea of bringing it home and wearing it a store just to see was reactions I get.
PS As I understand it, the mask to little to protect the wearer from the virus but might reduce wearer’s chance of infecting those around him.
Just like the N95 mask with the “check valve” for exhaling, a full face respirator will do little or nothing to protect those around the wearer. They have a similar type of “check valve” that lets what the wearer exhales out go directly to the air.
“Just like the N95 mask with the “check valve” for exhaling, a full face respirator will do little or nothing to protect those around the wearer. They have a similar type of “check valve” that lets what the wearer exhales out go directly to the air.”
I decided to do a test and I just put on a brand-new N95 mask with a valve in the front, and I blew air out as hard as I could while holding my hand in front of the valve and I could barely feel a slight movement of air. You could not blow a lit candle out with it.
If you want to blow a candle out, you get one of those blue surgical masks that pooch out on both sides.
I’m convinced now that the only reason I’ve had a rotten cold/URI since October is that the few instances I’ve had of wearing a mask in public, e.g., grocery store, have simply prolonged it and made my as close to a nasty hell as you can get. I might have been better off with a Steam Punk bird beak mask loaded with lavender or thyme, but the smaller masks were less expensive.
I’m in the VERY last stage of this cold. I would love to share it with Fauci. Should I maybe send him my used kleenexes? 🙂 🙂 🙂
Absolutely…send Mr Hankey too
Sara
There are more important things to worry about than silicosis:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxoplasma_gondii
I know about that, Clyde, but the cats who carry toxoplasmosis are not indoor kitties. They tend to be barn cats or ferals or dumped, and yes, that can be treated. My kitty has come and told me when she’s killed a rodent, but she does not get to eat the trophy. I let her know she’s wonderful, get a photo of her with her “kill”, and toss the dead critter into the trash where it belongs.
And yes, she’s been to the vet, too.
We had a wonderful Gray DSH cat, Euripides, who would go hunting at night such that many mornings there were 3 or 4 sewer rats laying on our garage stoop. I believe that the rats eventually got a win though as after about two years the cat vanished without a trace
And by the way,
Say it loud. I’m warm and I’m proud.
The powers that be have changed their minds (again) and are recommending 3 or more layers of cloth as appropriate face coverings. Our good friend Josh has another brilliant cartoon.
Would a 3-layer mask prevent my glasses from fogging?
I won’t recommend to you George the fogging solution I suggested to my mother in-law:
“stop breathing”
If you want to stop your glasses from fogging up, take a Kleenex and fold it a few times. Place it on the bridge of your nose prior to putting on the mask. Squeeze the mask form bar into the Kleenex. This absorbs the moisture in your exhalation and acts to block it from escaping UP into your glasses
Obviously, if two masks are better than one, then “The more the merrier!”
I agree. Masks are about droplet containment, not to stop inhalation of aerosols which most do not do. For example, in Japan people wore masks going back several years if they thought they might be sick so they would not contaminate surfaces with droplets or with droplet contaminated hands. It was considered a courtesy if they could not stay home, but staying home is still the first option.
I can’t find it now but there was study done that showed the likely hood of asymptomatic covid 19 carriers spreading the disease is very, very, small. There is no point in wearing a mask even your asymptomatic in that case. If you have symptoms just stay home.
Masks acting as an effective barrier transmission of bacteria, deadly things like TB, do work. But TB transmission via large aerosol requires much closer contact distances than this airborne corona virus. The things I see passing for masks in public are jokes.
Everyone quietly I think knows this. No one says anything though to be polite and so as not to be called a Mask Denier by some passing shrieking Karen.
I admit to wearing a mask the other day.
I was using a palm sander on some MDF….
… so I thought it was probably a good idea. 🙂
I admit to wearing a mask while at the grocery store last week. The cold air from the freezer where the cheesecake and ice cream reside makes me sneeze. The mask does provide that barrier to stop the sneezing. 🙂
“The things I see passing for masks in public are jokes.”
Exactly.
I wore the Monsanto N95 masks every day when examining patients and especially when doing surgery. High speed instrumentation sends blood everywhere. Also a scalpel nicking an artery can leave a mess. I was practicing at the beginning of the HIV period and I remember a referral from a Dr that I knew calling me up and telling me that we don’t know what this patient has but be very careful…we always were. I had a number of HIV pts that didn’t tell me their condition. I also wore protective eyewear with magnifiers. I liked the mask because it was comfortable but I hoped and didn’t expect that it would prevent me from contacting an illness.
Better HIV than Ebola!
If Ebola, which was fatal in 10 percent of cases, were as contagious as the Wuhan virus, and suddenly reappeared in the population, we would all be looking for much better masks.
We need to think about future, more dangerous viruses, and what we are going to do to combat them because they are probably coming sooner rather than later.
The good news is this Wuhan virus pandemic has spurred research into all the areas we need to be looking at to combat viruses and this research will spill over into the treatment of other diseases, too.
We are learning a lot about the human body and its immune system and this will serve us well in the future.
I just want to thank you for using histograms. Good honest people use histograms.
Yes, good clear graphs and histograms tell a great story.
Thanks also for not using images in the background of the graphs like you used to do sometimes…they just clutter things up and get in the way as a distraction and make it harder to see the clear facts the graphs show.
Mackay’s reference to Christianity as some sort of crazed cult is offensive and underserved considering the Church is responsible for preserving the learning of Romans and Greeks during the barbarian attacks (notable that they occurred during a cold period) and the creation of universities to further the cause of learning. Mackay leaves out the blood bath of the Reformation when governments sought control of the Church, and died before the bloodbath of the 20th century when atheists tried to eradicate it.
I agree with much of what you say, and sociologist Rodney Stark has demonstrated that many accusations against the Roman Church are either exaggerated or entirely false. However, it is shameful that the RCC banned translations of the Bible into common vernacular, going so far as to imprison or even kill those who tried. Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
I think people should be happy if our Ice Age warms. And if cools a bit, people shouldn’t worry to much, as tends to take quite while to drop very far into another glaciation period.
Though it seems global warming is mostly about fear of over population, but if went on and on about over population, some could imagine it’s racist, particularly when Germany is wanting to be a leader in global warming. And we have the “recent” concern over systematic
racism, which is flying even closer to “global warming effort”.
The abortion movement, over population movement, and global warming movement in environment of witch burning to solve weather problems and Germany being “solar energy capital” of world, is quite a mass of madness.
So we got, 1 foot rise in sea level per two hundred years, and worried about sea level rise.
And one can say, sea level rise is a coastal concern. And seems less of concern these days.
We have a corporate interest in China, and China is rapidly consuming all it’s coal, China wants to still regarded a developing nation {I guess until it runs out of coal} while it’s claiming to be world superpower and has started a global pandemic- which still doesn’t have a end in sight.
One could say that developing countries do tend to start pandemics- though they don’t start them in labs. But apparently it was funded by the US government tax dollars {though President Obama suggested it should be allowed [maybe some billionaire kicked in some money]}.
Anyhow it all seems connected a world government which is controlled by corporations,
but one can also “seriously” argue corporations are “better” at racial/diversity/gender issues than compared normal ineffective governmental “action”.
I tend think China as a superpower, and Biden as a president, as a rather fleeting idea. And “interesting times” is on menu, but hope we might agree, that the corporate news is already, long dead, though has not been buried or cremated, yet.
Mr. Eschenbach,
This is a little pedantic quibbling, for which I apologize in advance—
the sainted H. L. Mencken’s last name has a “c” in it.
No need for apologies. My motto is “Perfect is good enough.”
Fixed.
w.
From the article: “Zhou Bai-den”
Lol! You got me on that one! I was thinking: “Who is this guy, Zhou Bai-den? Then it hit me! Good one!
Well, in Yakutia, whether you’re in Yakutsk or some other habitable spot like Chersky, you might have a reasonable concern about a touch of frostbite. That would be a real health concern. But then, the people who live in Yakutia know how to handle that kind of frigid weather.
I really do think that spending a winter in a town near or above the Arctic Circle would do the warmians and greenbeaners a world of good. It’s quite chilly and you have to dress for the cold or expect some rather serious consequences.
I now have about 9 feet of snow in my yard, most of from shoveling that white stuff off the sidewalk and clearing out the drain for the gutter, so that it won’t clog when the white stuff melts.
The claim that there is a climate “health emergency” is of course utterly absurd, and pure insanity. But then, so is the claim that the election was “stolen”. The madness of crowds.
The Dem’s $1.9 Trillion COVID relief bill will be a cornucopia fountain of OPM for those groups and any health crisis declaration.
What parts of Jovan Pulitzer’s report is absurd, Bruce?
Summary here.
Posted too soon. Jovan Pulitzer pdf is here
The Georgia and Michigan ballots counts and the jumps were to me the big indicator of fraud occurring at the digital level by some malevolent actor injection. The other states, like my Arizona, looks a lot more like simple California style ballot harvesting fraud.
The Biden-only Michigan and Wisconsin vote jumps were what caught my eye, Joel.
Navarro’s report also interesting.
https://www.teaparty.org/breaking-peter-navarro-member-of-trumps-team-just-dropped-a-massive-report-on-election-fraud-that-proves-trump-won-461062/
Amazon as a company is opposing the use of mail in ballots in it’s upcoming union campaigns out of a fear of potential fraud.
During most of the last year, Jeff Bezos was ridiculing anyone who thought that there was a possibility of fraud with mail in ballots.
Just because you refuse to see something, doesn’t mean it isn’t there.
Just because you insist that ghosts exist doesn’t mean that they do. Moron.
Once again, Bruce can’t be bothered with facts. All he’s got is mindless insults.
An interesting perspective Bruce.
I suppose you bought the Warren Commission’s findings about JFK’s assassination lock, stock & barrel?
“But then, so is the claim that the election was “stolen”. The madness of crowds.”
Well, from what I hear, Trump wants to air his evidence for election fraud at this upcoming trial on Feb. 8, although some of his lawyers apparently were reluctant to do so.
I’m glad to see that Trump is still saying he has evidence. That means there is still hope that he is not a consequential liar.
I don’t think this U.S. Senate trial is the place to present this evidence, at this time.
I think Trump should have his lawyers go in there are say it is unconstitutional to remove a former president from an office he no longer occupies, and should cite the fact that the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, John Roberts, who is supposed to preside over an impeachment trial, has refused to attend because he says the U.S. Constitution says you impeach only “the” president, and Trump is not now “the” president.
So the U.S. Senate trial is illegitimate because it has no jurisdiction over a private citizen such as Donald Trump. And the lawyers should leave it at that, and let the Republican Senators move to take a vote on it.
The Democrats in the House did not call any witnesses when they impeached Trump, and did not even allow a Trump lawyer to take part.
Senator Lindsey Graham says if the Democrats in the Senate try to call *any* witnesses, that the Repubicans will call numerous witnesses, such as the FBI and other intelligence agencies to explain why when they informed those in charge of Capital Hill security about the threats they were seeing coming, that noone in charge did anything.
Nancy Pelosi is at the top of that particular chain of command. I suppose the Republican Senators could call Nancy Pelosi as a witness! They might even call AOC as a witness! She claimed the other night that she and others knew the attack on the Capital Building was coming! 🙂
Also, calling witnesses will drag this trial out for months, when Congress needs to be focusing on other, important things.
If the Democrats do introduce witnesses and go down that road, then would be the time for Trump to present his election fraud evidence.
I personally would prefer than Trump gather all his evidence in one place and make a documentary detailing all of it and present it that way to the American people.
If it takes place in the Senate, you can imagine the uproar it will cause, whether Trump has his facts straight or not. It will be all emotion and no rationality.
The electon fraud issue needs to be explained free of emotion. Just the facts, please.
Willis,
WOW! You pegged this one with easy to understand visual aids! Great job!
Now, if you just had a way to rub Zhou Bai-den’s nose in these graphs some morning at breakfast!
The democrat party empire is wasting no time seizing as much power as possible.
Their power grab can be contained by a Constitutional Convention called by 34 states to amend the constitution to rein them in. Debate might produce amendments that would be acceptable to and ratified by the necessary 38 states.
The problem is, are there 38 states left, that aren’t owned, lock, stock and barrel by the Democrat party?
Dan Pangburn, what amendments would rein them in? Be specific. And the problem with a Constitutional Convention is that they could throw out the original and substitute Karl Marx’s version. Of course, states would have to ratify it.
From the article: “that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it”
That’s what is going on now with Human-caused Climate Change. They are helped along in their delusions by the lies and distortions of the opinion makers of society, the Leftwing Media.
“Health Emergency” eh. These are the same politicos that let the health insurance-paid pandemic of opioid deaths in the U.S. go on “undetected” and lacking policy attention until economists started to notice the decline in life expectancy data for the U.S. in general population data. Sheesh!
I’m not sure which is worse, agenda science or the science of neglect.
Resource, the story behind the opoid emergency is quite different from what people think. It was actually encouraged and supported by government regs. See my post “The Law Of Unintended Opiates” on my own blog for details.
w.
“Zhou Bai-den” Willis, if you invented that, you’re a genius.
If you didn’t, you’re still a very smart guy. Your postings are always thought-provoking. Although I’m still a bit ambivalent about CEEMD when you have less than one complete cycle of the longest wavelength component.
Didn’t invent it, but I stole it fair and square. (Also stolen, by the way, from S. I. Hayakawa, who a half-century ago said “I think we should keep the Panama Canal Zone. After all, we stole it fair and square.”)
As to CEEMD, it doesn’t calculate any cycles longer than the length of the dataset.
Regards,
w.
What is the ideal temp of earth? Are we now above the ideal temp? How much more can we stand before disaster? If we increase CO2 by ….20%….will that extra CO2 block any incoming IR from the sun?
CO2 has no significant effect on climate.
Willis,
Thanks for your easily understood posts! I myself only wish you would write them longer and more often!
It has been said that humans go insane in mobs and crowds, but return to sanity alone. In the Age of Propaganda it seems that all the children are being driven crazy by the lies and distortions of the Climastrology alarmists, and they may never hear the truth if they don’t leave the beaten path of the media and Big Tech Nazis to find alternative voices!
Speaking of cold weather emergencies, I noticed that Mammoth Mountain got 12 1/2 feet of snow over four days last week. I hope you got through the storms okay and can look forward to the summer and fall wildfire season!
Willis
Nice article showing visuals on cities from around the world.
But what is needed, is detailed assessment of each of theses cities.
Here in Melbourne Australia, a modern wealthy city, the vast majority of municipalities have claimed climate health risks since 2007.
However, none of them have provided a quantitative analysis.
http://stat.data.abs.gov.au/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=DEATHS_MONTHOCCURENCE
The Australian bureau of statistics ABS has detailed information on all deaths
If requested the ABS can provide detailed reports for each municipality.
They just won’t do it because, Even looking at the public available records it is clear summer is more healthy than winter.
Willis here’s Dr Hans Rosling’s 200 countries in 200 years and shows that every country was POOR and SICK in 1810 and average life expectancy was under 40 yrs of age.
Of course this starts in the wonderful LIA (SARC) when temps were perfect according to some of our so called scientists. This takes less that 5 mins of your time and delivers a graphical video up to the very healthy and wealthy 2010 and according to Dr Matt Ridley the last 10 years is even better. This wrecks all their clueless arguments about health/wealth and only takes 4+ minutes of our time.
BTW you’ll note that this was part of Dr Rosling’s BBC presentation and part of his funding came from the US State dept under the Obama administration.
Unfortunately this wonderful deep thinker died from cancer a few years ago. And his TED talks really make you think about so called tertiary educated people.
Forget about annual variations.
How about DAILY variations of 10 to 20 degrees Celsius that the entire planet has grown accustomed to for billions of years (or hundreds of billions of days, put another way).
And now they tell us, even if the alarmists’ worst fears are realized, all of life won’t be able to adapt to a temperature change of 3 or 4 degrees that takes place over a hundred or more years? When we (and almost every other organism on earth) easily live through 5x+ that every day?
It’s so silly it beggars belief.
Things to consider.
1. People do die from cold weather.
2. People do die from hot weather.
3. People do die from viruses, and other infectious diseases that are more prevalent in cold weather.
4. People do die from viruses and other infectious diseases that are more prevalent in hot weather.
5. The rates of the four components above are not static with time.
Here in Melbourne Australia, during the 1880s the city was known as Smellbourne.
The city was packed with people, but there was no sewer system.
Waterborne diseases were responsible for many deaths. In the 1880s Melbourne, summer deaths dominated winter deaths.
The construction of sewer infrastructure starting in 1890s changed everything. By about 1920 summer deaths were equal with winter deaths.
Now in 2021 winter deaths in Melbourne dominate summer deaths, BUT all death rates are down
In 2019 Mayor Bill de Blasio declared a climate emergency for New York City (an. av. ~54F) subsequently thousands of those that could have fled to Florida (Miami an. av ~75F).
Just a few years ago we fled from New Hampshire to Florida after I took another look at the temperature curve for the last 6,000 years as derived from ice core records from Greenland and Antarctica, along with sea level records at the end of the Milankovitch warm cycles.
“Ever notice how these kinds of folks never specify just what a degree or two of warming is supposed to do to our health?”
As a forester in Mass. I’ve worked outdoors since Nixon was in the White House in temperatures ranging from 105 F down to -25 F. Didn’t hurt me any – as I’m now 71.
Now- off topic again- but heck, I find some good stuff! In the latest NY Times Magazine: “Bill Gates: Here’s a Formula That Explains Where We Need to Invest in Climate Innovation”
https://time.com/5930098/bill-gates-climate-change/
He talks about things like “green cement”. I’d like to see how they make that! And, he says green electric power will only add about $18/month to our bills. Yuh, right!
“green electric power will only add about $18/month to our bills.”
He may be right. Under green power our consumption will plummet. I am hoping I will get enough power to keep the freezer cold. Luckily I live in a warm part of the world, sorry about the rest of you.
Of course our poorest continent Africa ( 53 countries) has seen an enormous increase in pop since 1950 ( 227 mil), 1970 (363 mil) and since 2000 and today the population has increased by a billion people since 1970. So today about 1.34 billion people. Check it out.
In 1970 just 0.363 bn people and life exp was about 47.5 years,yet today an extra one billion people (in just 50 years) and life exp about 64 years.
So where is their so called climate crisis or emergency or apocalypse? Again don’t forget this is the poorest continent on the planet.
Neville
Excellent comment
As you highlighted above, the late Hans Rosling has clearly shown with his health statistics how the world is changing.
The clear link is reliable grid electricity enables reticulated water and waste water systems which dramatically improve health and free up time to enable women to work and study. A female workforce go hand in hand with a better national economy and lower population growth.
According to Sen. John Kennedy of LA, ” I keep trying to see Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer’s point of view but I just can’t seem to get my head that far up my ass. “
I see you changed the wording of your normal “PS”.
I like it.
Reminds me of,
I’m not sure who said that first but we should always be open to allowing someone to clarify what they said.
We may still end up disagreeing, but at least it’s not based on a misunderstanding or “a failure to communicate”.
Here in his study of our future wealth Dr Lomborg uses the IPCC data and finds that we will be 4.3 times better off in 2100. Here’s part of his abstract and link to the study……
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157
“Abstract”Climate change is real and its impacts are mostly negative, but common portrayals of devastation are unfounded. Scenarios set out under the UN Climate Panel (IPCC) show human welfare will likely increase to 450% of today’s welfare over the 21st century. Climate damages will reduce this welfare increase to 434%.
Arguments for devastation typically claim that extreme weather (like droughts, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes) is already worsening because of climate change. This is mostly misleading and inconsistent with the IPCC literature. For instance, the IPCC finds no trend for global hurricane frequency and has low confidence in attribution of changes to human activity, while the US has not seen an increase in landfalling hurricanes since 1900. Global death risk from extreme weather has declined 99% over 100 years and global costs have declined 26% over the last 28 years.
Arguments for devastation typically ignore adaptation, which will reduce vulnerability dramatically. While climate research suggests that fewer but stronger future hurricanes will increase damages, this effect will be countered by richer and more resilient societies. Global cost of hurricanes will likely decline from 0.04% of GDP today to 0.02% in 2100.
Climate-economic research shows that the total cost from untreated climate change is negative but moderate, likely equivalent to a 3.6% reduction in total GDP.
Climate policies also have costs that often vastly outweigh their climate benefits. The Paris Agreement, if fully implemented, will cost $819–$1,890 billion per year in 2030, yet will reduce emissions by just 1% of what is needed to limit average global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Each dollar spent on Paris will likely produce climate benefits worth 11¢.
Long-term impacts of climate policy can cost even more. The IPCC’s two best future scenarios are the “sustainable” SSP1 and the “fossil-fuel driven” SSP5. Current climate-focused attitudes suggest we aim for the “sustainable” world, but the higher economic growth in SSP5 actually leads to much greater welfare for humanity. After adjusting for climate damages, SSP5 will on average leave grandchildren of today’s poor $48,000 better off every year. It will reduce poverty by 26 million each year until 2050, inequality will be lower, and more than 80 million premature deaths will be avoided.
Using carbon taxes, an optimal realistic climate policy can aggressively reduce emissions and reduce the global temperature increase from 4.1°C in 2100 to 3.75°C. This will cost $18 trillion, but deliver climate benefits worth twice that. The popular 2°C target, in contrast, is unrealistic and would leave the world more than $250 trillion worse off.
The most effective climate policy is increasing investment in green R&D to make future decarbonization much cheaper. This can deliver $11 of climate benefits for each dollar spent.
More effective climate policies can help the world do better. The current climate discourse leads to wasteful climate policies, diverting attention and funds from more effective ways to improve the world”.
If that much.
Actual temperature rise is more likely to be a tenth of a degree or two.
BTW here is the largest study ever to attribute deaths to levels of temp around the world. This 2015 Lancet study found most deaths were attributable to cold temps 7.29% and about 0.42% to warmer temps.
That’s about 17.4 times more cold deaths than for warmer temps. But moderate cold deaths are the real surprise and they include handy column graphs for some countries, so we can easily see the difference. See 2nd link below.
Interesting that very wealthy hot countries like Australia seem to handle very hot (or extreme heat) conditions well and probably because of widespread use of ACs. Here’s the study link and below that is the link to the column graphs for deaths from different temps”.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62114-0/fulltext
The definitions for the 4 temperature categories must vary by country. I doubt that the temperature for “extreme cold” for Thailand is the same as for Canada.
My impression has been that in those places where the temperature is warmer, people are, on average, healthier.
My impression is that until Europeans arrived in the Arctic, Inuits did not experience colds, flu, smallpox, or TB. Perhaps it was the custom of rubbing noses instead of exchanging saliva that was their salvation.
Willis, slightly off-topic, but you were the first to convince me that wearing face masks was correlated with protection from the coronavirus. This was at a time when the WHO and Canada’s chief medical officer claimed that masks other than N95 respirators were “useless” and might even give some a false sense of security. Please provide a link to your article, or state the date (I might have saved the WUWT article under a different title). Thanks for all your good work.
During the height of The Great Toilet Paper Scare of 2020, I was recommending McKay’s book to help people understand what was happening. Alas, when people are seized by fear you cannot reason with them. They turn on you as a focus of their anger.
Can thr pols declare a emergency wihtout some evidence it occurred? I never heard of an emergency declaration due to an expected tornado or pretty soon forest fire.If we let them call emergency rules for something expected by a few we will never find normal again.
Nor find freedom again.
“… that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.”
The question of our time is what the new folly will be.
“But then, nobody ever accused us humanoids of being
quick learnersrational en masse.”I heard then following somewhere:
“None of us is as stupid as all of us”. [madness of crowds]
Is there a national organization, in the U.S. or elsewhere, with the purpose of fighting this insane climate alarmism? Individual scientists and journalists speak out, but is there a membership organization dedicated to advancing rational thought and lobbying politicians so as to prevent this insanity from destroying society?
It would be interesting to select a random number of smaller towns and cities where there are decent temperature data, and be able to judge the swings in temps, etc. for those random towns and small cities. I wonder what that would show. Great job with your article!
I have experienced literal health miracles doing exertion and extreme heat. I had a strained muscle in my neck they would never go away tell one day I help bring up shingles onto 135° roof all day.
I got something going wrong on my body every summer I called my cousin who does Shingle houses and get on a crew for a day or two in the very hottest days and it’ll sweat you pure and clean and it’ll make every muscle in your body like silly putty
Good post Willis, but common sense and facts don’t make any impression on the “woke” neo-marxists that pretty clearly have taken over just about all aspects (not necessarily a majority of people YET) of formerly western/democratic culture. If there is an impression, it’s one to strike out and silence such ideas.