Putting a Lid on the Most Recent Climate Decade

A Twitter thread from Dr. Ryan Maue,

Prelim temperature data has arrived to complete 2020 & put a lid on the most recent “climate decade” across the U.S.

I quickly mapped up 2011-2020 minus 1981-1990 change in mean (daily) temperature.

Lower 48 change in “normals”

ΔTAVG = +0.32°F
ΔTMIN = +0.46°F
ΔTMAX= +0.18°F

This calculation is simply the 30-year change in U.S. temperatures.

Quick thoughts:

Urban low temperatures are increasing dramatically

Overall U.S. high temperatures, not so much, but again, urban dominated.

b/c people live in cities, land-use change = local climate change

What to do?

Global / U.S. / regional / local temperature (climate) changes must always be population weighted just like how energy industry operates.

I see this in weather + load forecasting.

This is especially relevant for people & thermal comfort (cooling) in urban areas.

I used PRISM data from Oregon State.
https://prism.oregonstate.edu/

But, another option for comparison is GRIDMET from @climate_guy

http://www.climatologylab.org/gridmet.html

Per request: change in Maximum Temperatures (daily) averaged up across the 2 different decades.

Notable changes
Midwest U.S. — cooling
Western U.S. — warming

Physical climate reasons are not apparent b/c these time-slices need context.

Originally tweeted by Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) on January 3, 2021.

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Derg
January 3, 2021 6:05 pm

Simon please explain to us what Climate Change means….please.

Then tell us what CO2 does to make it worse.

Scissor
January 3, 2021 6:07 pm

Nice map. I wonder what the seasonal trends look like.

Joel O'Bryan
January 3, 2021 6:09 pm

I ponder how the Pleistocene Laurentide Ice Sheets were built looking at that graphic. Warm and wet on the edges, cold .. really cold … in the middle.

Scissor
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
January 3, 2021 6:24 pm

I was thinking something similar. That pattern looks familiar.

Richard M
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
January 4, 2021 9:42 am

This data demonstrates yet again that the oceans are the main factor in the changes over the past few decades. The “middle” is least likely to have an ocean influence.

Tom Halla
January 3, 2021 6:09 pm

It looks very much like some two thirds of the “warming” is consistent with UHI effects.

John Andrews
Reply to  Tom Halla
January 3, 2021 8:54 pm

I would think that the increase in warming would be reflected in an increase in the minimum temperatures. That temp is more closely related to urban heat than is the high temperature.

January 3, 2021 6:59 pm

Alert the media! This data is certainly a call to arms – someone should contact every single “important“ Climatologist so that they may use this terrifying information to warn the world of the devastation that is sure to come!

Naturally, I am talking about the cooling.
😂😂😂😂

Lil-Mike
January 3, 2021 7:22 pm

Actually, this looks a bit like a geological map … substitute higher temperature change for altitude, and you’ll have an approximate fit.

If you plotted temp and altitude, I’m sure you’d have a pretty flat line. Then go compare that data to Dr. Spenser’s lower altitude data.

fred250
Reply to  Lil-Mike
January 3, 2021 8:49 pm

comment image

Last edited 5 months ago by fred250
pHil R
Reply to  fred250
January 4, 2021 7:39 am

Very interesting (or curious) how the Yellowstone caldera and eastern Snake Rive plain (hot spot path) stand out like a hot sore thumb.

Also, Black Hills, SD and Appalachian mountains distinctly cooler.

Just observin’…

beng135
Reply to  pHil R
January 4, 2021 10:16 am

Most (not all) of that east coast “cloudiness” is actually just to the east of the Blue Ridge Mnts (the Piedmont area), not actually on those mountains. The cloudiness, tho, does extend west into the Smokey Mnts. It IS interesting. Wondering if reforestation has something to do w/it…

Last edited 5 months ago by beng135
Clyde Spencer
Reply to  pHil R
January 5, 2021 9:31 pm

What is that hot spot along the middle of the southern border of SD?

Bill Rocks
Reply to  fred250
January 4, 2021 10:12 am

Wyoming has the highest mean elevation in the USA but most of it has very average mean heat flow. The Yellowstone caldera excepted.

Loren C. Wilson
Reply to  Lil-Mike
January 4, 2021 4:50 am

But the altitude did not change from 1980 to 2020. That factor is constant. What is plotted is the change in average temperature as defined by (Tmax+Tmin)/2 for the last 30 years, using 10 years of data for each average. If elevation affected the change in temperature over time, as you appear to be proposing, how would it do so? What is different about how the sun shines on Denver now versus 30 years ago?

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Loren C. Wilson
January 4, 2021 3:20 pm

As someone else has pointed out, (Tmax-Tmin)/2 is not the average temperature, it is the mid-range temperature. To actually find the average temperature you would need to integrate the entire temperature profile and divide by the timeframe involved. Think of the mid-range temp as a DC offset applied to an AC sine wave. I don’t actually understand what the mid-range temperature tells you.

Loren C. Wilson
Reply to  Tim Gorman
January 4, 2021 5:47 pm

While I agree with you on Tavg not equal to (Tmax+Tmin)/2, the point above was about the coincidental appearance of the graph of “average temperature” as a function of time to a graph of temperature versus altitude.

Mark L
Reply to  Tim Gorman
January 4, 2021 9:05 pm

Yep you right the average potential of an AC sine wave is zero, yet the overall voltage will kill you. Dealing with capacitors and AC voltage tell a better story seldom after you shut off the power to you find one seconds later with an average voltage of zero. Just like no one lives in and average temperature let along the so called global temperature.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Tim Gorman
January 5, 2021 9:36 pm

The mid-range temperature tells you what the half-way point between the daily high and low is. 🙂 It says nothing about whether the average temperature was warm or cool; that is, whether a cold front passed through or not.

Rex Malott
January 3, 2021 8:16 pm

Interesting that the California red hot spots are both in volcanically active regions, Mammoth and Lassen, while one of the few other red spots is over Yellowstone in WY. Further, the long Cascadian band of yellow extends north from Lassen to Washington’s Baker. As a geothermal map of surface effects this is intriguing, especially as the basin and range area also heated, as if some magma plume is spinning our way, but this explanation is too logical so it must be selective CO2 targeting.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Rex Malott
January 3, 2021 8:39 pm

Texas little warm blip is south of Sierra Blanca is near Indian hot springs. There is a pre-Cambrian outcrop between Sierra Blanca and Van Horn, and the Diablo Platform extends up into New Mexico.
See figures 2, 3, and 4 of this Geologic survey document.
https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5716546

All of New Mexico’s little warm blips are near known vocanically active areas(in recent past few millennia).

commieBob
January 3, 2021 8:17 pm

Urban low temperatures are increasing dramatically

Overall U.S. high temperatures, not so much, but again, urban dominated.

When you look at the map, you’d think you’d see changes in color corresponding to urban areas. Instead, it appears that the temperatures from the urban areas are spread out on the map and cover the surrounding rural areas.

fred250
Reply to  commieBob
January 3, 2021 10:12 pm

“it appears that the temperatures from the urban areas are spread out on the map and cover the surrounding rural areas.”

That’s called “homogenisation”

Tim Gorman
Reply to  fred250
January 4, 2021 3:21 pm

Heat from the UHI also *does* spread out into rural areas. Winds can move that heat long distances.

Jaye
January 3, 2021 9:56 pm

Hot spot looks like the Mammoth area of SoCal is ready to blow- lots of crazy earth movement – Mammoth Bulge — happening in this area for some time, but no knows what to expect – but the one single red hot spot makes the speculation interesting.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Jaye
January 5, 2021 9:41 pm

I attempted to find evidence of surface warming in and around the Long Valley Caldera by sharpening the Landsat thermal band with infrared bands. I found a number of undocumented hot springs, but no evidence that magma was warming the surface over broad areas.

Geoff Sherrington
January 3, 2021 10:43 pm

This graph from Australia is relevant.
It would be interesting to repeat it for the US.

http://www.geoffstuff.com/altversuswarming.jpg

Method.
Australia has 57 official sites (used in their BOM Acorn-Sat adjustments) that have raw data from 1910 to 2020. I deselected 7 of these because of outliers/noise in both directions, so we have 50 sites with raw data. Here, I used the Tamx maximum temperature daily data, raw, not homogenized or adjusted.

The 110 years of time was divided into an early set from 1910 to 1964 and a late set from 1965 to 2020. The average Tmax for early and late was calculated for each of the 50 sites, then the average of the early set was subtracted from the average of the late set..

Each site has an altitude. In this very simple analysis, I have calculated the warming at each altitude as above (the warming varies from a high of 0.8 degrees C to a low of minus 0.3 degrees C., slight cooling as opposed to warming.)

The interesting finding is a mathematical relationship between the altitude of a station and its gross warming over these decades. The higher the site above sea level, the less it has warmed, if the math and physics are all correct. Hence the interest in what happens in the US.

Australia is not mountainous. The highest station in this set is only 580 metres or 1910 feet above sea level. America can expand this.

The orange linear trend line might not mean much in science, but I added it to save your eye looking for it in the now-conventional climate research way.

Any theories about this relationship?

Maybe people build more cities on the flats than in the mountains, so UHI is less pronounced in the mountains.Geoff S

Last edited 5 months ago by Geoff Sherrington
January 4, 2021 4:23 am

Thanks to Ryan Maue and Charles Rotter for their good work..

To date, we’ve been correct in both our major climate-and-energy predictions, also published in 2002.I hope to be wrong about this 2002 global cooling prediction.- humanity and the environment suffer during cooling periods… and I’m getting old and hate the cold.

THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED
By Allan M.R. MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 27, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/
[excerpt]

Published in 2002:
If solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.

For the past ~five years, MacRae has written that global cooling would start closer to 2020. This global cooling will start sporadically, at different locations in the world. Similar predictions of global cooling are included in the Appendix.

Summary and Conclusions

It is notable that crop planting has occurred one month later-than-usual in the North-central growing areas of North America in both 2018 and 2019. While warm summer weather saved the 2018 crop, in 2019 the Northern corn and soybean harvests were devastated by a cold summer and early cold weather. In 2019, there were many more record U.S. all-time daily low temperatures than record highs. These events may just be weather, not climate, or they could be the early indicators of global cooling.

Last edited 5 months ago by ALLAN MACRAE
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
January 6, 2021 7:45 am

https://energynow.ca/2021/01/world-winter-is-colder-this-year-and-thats-good-for-energy-prices/

World Winter Is Colder This Year and That’s Good for Energy Prices
January 6, 2021 EnergyNow Media

By Bloomberg News
 Jan 6, 2021
(Bloomberg)Freezing weather that’s gripped large parts of the northern hemisphere is delivering a winter blessing for oil, gas and coal prices as suppliers meet a surge in heating demand.Temperatures across much of Europe and Asia are well below normal and forecasters expect them to stay there for most of January. The chill is supporting oil prices, which are holding above $50 a barrel, while the profit from turning crude into diesel climbed in Europe to the most since August in recent weeks as consumers — many stuck working from home because of a resurgent virus — burn more heating fuel.The weather is especially severe in northeast Asia. In Japan, a major refiner said December demand was expected to be 7% ahead of last year, and South Korea last week considered a plan to tap state reserves to meet soaring consumption. In China, heating demand has so stretched power supply, factories have bought diesel generators to keep the lights on.
Beyond oil, colder temperatures in Asia have depleted natural gas inventories, resulting in a spot deal above benchmark records this week, and thermal coal in China has also surged as the cold snap has intensified an existing power crunch.
“Winter weather is going to provide a huge boost to heating demand in the residential and commercial sectors,” said Edmund Siau, a Singapore-based analyst at energy consultant FGE.
It’s a very different picture to a year ago, when Europe had its hottest winter on record and North Asia enjoyed milder temperatures. By some estimates that shaved 800,000 barrels a day, or almost 1%, from global oil demand last January, a month when Asian liquefied natural gas

Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
January 7, 2021 9:31 am

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-spain-weather-snow/spain-records-lowest-temperature-ever-at-34c-idUKKBN29B28D

Spain records lowest temperature ever at -34C
Reuters, 7 January 2021

MADRID (Reuters) – Heavy snow and icy winds blasted Spain as temperatures plumetted to -34.1C, the lowest ever recorded on the Iberian peninsula, the State Meterololgical Agency said on Wednesday.

comment image
 
The chilling temperature was recorded at Clot del Tuc de la Llanca in Aragon in the Spanish Pyrenees at 5.19 a.m., the agency said.
 
This was two degrees lower than in 1956, when temperatures of -32C were recorded in Estany-Gento, in Lleida, in northeastern Spain.
 

John MacDonald
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
January 9, 2021 5:24 pm

One must know that Clot del Tuc de la Llanca in Aragon is the top of lifts in a ski resort.

Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
January 7, 2021 10:07 pm

20+ WEATHER STATIONS ACROSS CHINA EQUAL/BREAK LOWEST-EVER TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MONTH OF DECEMBER
January 2, 2021 Cap Allon
https://electroverse.net/china-20-weather-stations-break-lowest-temp-records/

China knows what’s coming. It’s plays on the global scene are clear: from its expansion into the greening north Africa to its desperate increases in domestic energy production, the country is heeding the warnings delivered down from historical documentation and cosmological cycles, and is acting on the advice of its modern-day scientists — global cooling is coming.

Record cold has been impacting northern and southwestern Asia since early December with Siberia copping the worst of it, suffering lows of -50C (-58F) and beyond.

More recently, Arctic air masses have also descended southeast into central and eastern China, prompting the nation’s Meteorological Center to issue its highest cold wave warning alert for the first time in four years.

As reported by Chinese news site new.qq.comat least 20 weather stations across the country have either equaled or broken their lowest-ever December temperature records, since record keeping began — these include Beijing’s Foyeding meteorological station logging -26.4C (-15.5F) (linked below), and Shanghai Pudong recording -6.2C (20.8F) late Tuesday night.

Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
January 9, 2021 1:41 pm

RECORD COLD WEATHER IN CHINA SENDS POWER DEMAND THROUGH THE ROOF
09-Jan-2021
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-01-09/Record-cold-weather-in-China-sends-power-demand-through-the-roof-WUM5EGQMJq/index.html

Exceptionally cold weather sweeping through China has caused a huge increase in power demand in the world’s largest energy consumer and hampered transportation.

Frigid weather across north Asia has caught utilities and liquefied natural gas importers off guard, as demand for power lowered inventories and pushed spot prices to record levels.

China’s Central Meteorological Station released the first cold warning in 2021 earlier in the week in several regions. Cities such as the eastern port city of Qingdao recorded the lowest temperature in history and the capital city of Beijing had the coldest day since 1966 on January 7.

Since January 4, eleven provincial grid systems in China have seen peak power load hitting historic highs, according to China’s State Grid (link in Chinese).

The country’s power load reached a record 960 million kilowatts on Thursday, a 27.7 percent year-on-year increase, said the State Grid. On the same day, the nation’s power generation also broke the record with 25.967 billion kilowatt-hours.

China’s industrial belt, where a stunning manufacturing recovery from the coronavirus pandemic boosted energy demand, experienced a temporary power crunch in the last cold snap in December.

Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
January 9, 2021 2:32 pm

Addendum to the following:

Combine a colder winter with energy shortages, needlessly high energy costs, colder homes and winter pneumonia and flu’s, and we have the makings of a significant spike in Excess Winter Deaths – see our 2015 paper here:

COLD WEATHER KILLS 20 TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE AS HOT WEATHER September 4, 2015
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf

.__________________________

Posted in 2013:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/01/water-is-replacing-climate-as-the-next-un-environmental-resource-scare/#comment-113173
[excerpt]

I suggest that in less than a decade, the current statements of most world leaders on the subject of global warming will be widely viewed with derision – as the lunatic ravings of scoundrels and imbeciles.

My primary concern at this time is that Earth is about to enter a period of global cooling that could be severe, and could result in significant loss of life, especially among the elderly of Britain and Europe, since the fearless leaders of those countries have created “the perfect storm” by damaging their energy systems with costly and ineffective grid-connected wind and solar power schemes – “solutions” to a false global warming crisis in a cooling world.

We warned of this debacle in 2002, but to no effect. It has all, regrettably, unfolded as it should not have.

We wrote in 2002:

[PEGG, reprinted at their request by several other professional journals , the Globe and Mail and la Presse in translation, by Baliunas, Patterson and MacRae]
Formerly at: http://www.apega.ca/members/publications/peggs/WEB11_02/kyoto_pt.htm
Now at: http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/KyotoAPEGA2002REV1.pdf

On global warming:
“Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”

On green energy:
“The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”

[Calgary Herald, September 1, 2002, based on a phone conversation with Paleoclimatologist Dr. Tim Patterson]

On Global Cooling:
“IF (AS I BELIEVE) SOLAR ACTIVITY IS THE MAIN DRIVER OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE RATHER THAN CO2, WE SHOULD BEGIN THE NEXT COOLING PERIOD BY 2020 TO 2030.”

Best regards Kate, be well, strive to be happy, Allan

Jim Gorman
January 4, 2021 5:02 am

My two cents. I see where the oceans have an effect that diminishes as you move inland. The prevailing winds from the west over the Pacific have a bigger impact on the western third of the country. I see an UHI and land use effect.

Another fellow and I on Twitter have been researching temp changes globally on a local and regional basis. There are lots of areas that have little or no warming and even some that have cooling. To get 1.5 deg rise over the last century you must have two things that average to 1.5 deg. For every area with 0 deg warming you need an offsetting area that has risen by 3 deg. They just aren’t there. When also looking at UHI locations you can find some offsetting but not enough. That makes me doubt that the GAT is an accurate assessment. I see it as the sum of the parts have to add up to the whole and they don’t.

The rising Tmin is a good thing. It minimizes Heating Degree Days, i.e. less deaths from the cold. It extends the growing season letting higher yielding/longer growing species to be planted and harvested.

This kind of news is a death knell for CAGW.

Matthew Sykes
January 4, 2021 5:29 am

Again, almost all the warming from an increase in minimum temperature. Of course CO2 is known to affect cold places and times, so this is expected. HOwever not a threat to any plant or animal.

Pat from Kerbob
January 4, 2021 10:28 am

Can such a graph be constructed for Canada? I’m in Calgary, looks like Montana and North Dakota are significantly colder over previous 30 years, my own unscientific observations would concur for south Canadian prairies

Michael E McHenry
January 4, 2021 11:32 am

Is there any way to compare these temperature changes over the past 40 years to the 1930’s in particular in the US? After all the 1970’s were quite cool

Smart Rock
January 4, 2021 3:44 pm

“<i>Global / U.S. / regional / local temperature (climate) changes must always be population weighted just like how energy industry operates</i>”

Why? What possible reason could there be to weight climate data by the number of people in the area represented by each observing station? It makes no sense at all. Assuming that population centres cause higher local temperatures (or at least higher local Tmin), all this will do is exaggerate the UHI effect.

Am I missing something?

Mohatdebos
Reply to  Smart Rock
January 4, 2021 4:57 pm

Interesting that the North Central region has cooled according to this map. I thought I saw a recent newspaper report that a consortium of Midwestern universities had published a study claiming the Midwest had warmed more than any other region.

Nicholas M. James
January 4, 2021 6:56 pm

Kigali was implemented! Bah.

See page 1074 of 2124. ‘‘American Innovation and Manufacturing Act of 2020’’ 

H.R.133 – Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021116th Congress (2019-2020) httpsa://www.congress.gov/116/bills/hr133/BILLS-116hr133enr.pdf

Nicholas M. James
Reply to  Nicholas M. James
January 4, 2021 6:56 pm

40% reduction in production/consumption required in 3 years. 2024 

70% reduction in production/consumption required in 8 years. 2029 

We are so {redacted}. 

What other insanity did they slip into the spending act?!? 

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