JANUARY 2, 2021
By Paul Homewood
The annual data for 2020 has now been published for the CET, with the mean temperature ending up at 10.76C.
No doubt we will get the usual hysteria from the Met Office about the “third warmest year on record”, “nine of the ten warmest years since 1990”, blah, blah!
However this will be no more than an attempt to cover up the highly inconvenient truth, which is that warming stopped in 2006. The 10-year running average shows this clearly.
We can get a clearer picture of this by zooming in on the period since 1991. The 10-year average rose slowly during the 1990s and early 2000s. But since then they have gradually declined, having reached the peak for the 1997 to 2006 period:
Which all leads us around to the question of what is the “normal” climate for England?
The Met Office would say this is the 30-year average, but this is only an artificial construct for convenience. Currently the 10-year average on CET is 10.40C, which is barely above the 1991-2020 average of 10.25C. The difference is well within any margin of natural variation.
After all, annual temperatures rose from 8.86C in 2010, to 10.72C the following year, purely because of variations in “weather”.
The chart below, which plots the highest and lowest monthly mean temperatures for each month since 1991, shows just how variable English weather can be:
If the “hottest” months all occurred in the same year, the annual mean would be 12.8C. And if the same applied to the “coldest” months, the annual mean would be 7.3C.
The next chart shows this range, when overlaid on the actual annual temperatures:
Although such an eventuality may be exceedingly unlikely statistically, I see no reason meteorologically why it should not be possible.
To sum up, the idea that there is a “normal” annual temperature, or for that matter climate, in England is unscientific. Indeed, it is no more scientific than a claim that there is “normal” weather here.
What still dominates English “climate” is the variability of its weather, on a day-to-day, month-to-month, and even year-to-year basis. Any underlying climatic trends are drowned out in the noise.
According to the CET, annual temperatures rose by about 0.7C between the 1940s and 2000s. But how much of this was related to the underlying climatic conditions, and how much was due to weather?
Perhaps the best clue we have is to compare the warmest years. Whilst 2014 was the hottest at 10.95C, the year of 1949 was not far behind with 10.65C. Go back further, and we see years such as 1733, 1779 and 1834, all above 10.4C.
This suggests that most of the warming seen in the last three decades is related to weather, rather than climate change.