Lancing the Lancet’s global-warming pustule

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The Lancet, once a respected medico-scientific journal and now just another me-too mouthpiece for theusual suspects, ran an editorial this week on climate change – on which subject it has neither expertise nor a missio canonica to pronounce. Here is a letter to the editor in response:

Sir, – Your notion of a “climate crisis” (editorial, December 2), though fashionable among the classe politique, is misplaced. That notion sprang from an elementary error of physics perpetrated in the 1980s by climate scientists who had borrowed feedback formulism from control theory, another branch of physics, without quite understanding it. Interdisciplinary compartmentalization delayed its identification until now.

After correcting the error, anthropogenic global warming will be only one-third of current midrange projections, well within natural variability and net-beneficial to life and health. CO2 fertilization (for CO2 is plant food) has assisted in steadily increasing crop yields – this year’s global harvest has set yet another record – and in improving drought resistance (Hao et al., 2014) and greening the planet.

Your suggestion that warmer worldwide weather has caused net loss of life, particularly among the world’s fast-declining population of poor people, is fashionable but misplaced. Cold is a bigger killer than warmth. Research conducted three years ago for the European Commission found that, for this reason, even if there were 5.4 C° global warming from 2020-2080, there would be 100,000 more Europeans than with no warming at all.

However, now that nearly all major banks – citing “global warming” as their pretext – refuse to lend to developing countries for coal-fired electricity (dates from which they decided to abandon the poor are below), a billion people lack the capacity to turn on a 60 W lightbulb for just four hours a day (the International Energy Agency’s scarcely generous definition of “access to electricity”).

According to the WHO, 4 million annually die of particulate pollution from smoke in cooking fires because they lack domestic electrical power and, for the same lack, 500,000 women die in childbirth. These are just two of the many causes of death from lack of access to electricity that kill tens of millions annually. The chief reason why so many cannot turn on a light is not global warming but misconceived policies intended to address what is in reality a non-problem.

More than 90% of all new greenhouse-gas emissions (BP Annual Review of Energy, 2019) are in nations exempt from the Paris agreement, which, after correction of the error of physics, is in any event supererogatory.

You have said China must do more, but China – though it has its own space programme and continues to occupy Tibet by military force – is exempt from Paris on the ground that it is a “developing country”. It is not required to forswear its sins of emission.

Your advocacy of “low-carbon diets” is fashionable but misplaced. Like it or not, we have evolved over 2 million years to eat meat, which can provide all necessary energy, nutrients and vitamins. Yet ill-informed official guidelines on both sides of the Atlantic recommend low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets. Those recommendations have demonstrably been the chief cause of the surge in obesity and diabetes in both the UK and the USA. They were abandoned by court order a decade ago in Sweden at the instance of a brave doctor whom the medical authorities had attempted to prosecute because she cured all her diabetes patients by ignoring the guidelines and recommending a high-fat, low-carb diet.

Your advocacy of “renewable” energy is fashionable but misplaced. Using 14th-century technology to address a 21st-century non-problem would be silly enough in itself. What is worse, however, is that “renewables” have not only quadrupled the price of electricity but have also added to CO2 emissions. The chief reason for this apparent paradox is that the more windmills and solar panels are connected to the grid the more grossly-inefficient, CO2-emitting spinning reserve must be maintained in the often vain hope of preventing blackouts when the wind stops or the night falls.

Besides, the trillions that have been squandered on fashionable but misguided attempts to abate greenhouse-gas emissions have made no difference at all. The radiative forcing from anthropogenic greenhouse gases has increased in a fashion very close to a straight line (the dotted line above) for 40 years.

With respect, The Lancet should study more science and economics, however unfashionable, and peddle less totalitarian politics, however fashionable and profitable – and deadly.

Yours faithfully,

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Alexander
December 5, 2020 10:30 am

Da Lord knocks it outa the park once again. And let’s see if the presstitutes in this “professional” journal have the moral courage even to respond, much less to acquiesce to real science.

Matt
Reply to  Alexander
December 6, 2020 4:24 am

He does not call himself Lord (as you can see above), because he isn’t one – so why do you call him Lord?

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Matt
December 6, 2020 8:03 am

Alexander knows better than Matt, who should sick to the topic.

Alexander
Reply to  Matt
December 6, 2020 9:29 am

There are many ways of being lordly. Which do you practice?

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Matt
December 7, 2020 8:44 am

@ Matt;

You know, a little Google could have saved you much embarrassment. Christopher Monckton is the 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, an hereditary peerage. The proper form of address for a viscount is “Lord”. Is there enough room in your little pea-brain to absorb that fact?

James Snook
December 5, 2020 10:33 am

An absolutely brilliant letter. Thank you m’Lord. Only Trump recognised the total idiocy of exempting China, whilst the pathetic Obama and the Europeans just looked on and were mugged.

I hope that Bojo gets sight of your letter somehow because he is coming up with the most ludicrous Green proposals that will ensure that China walks all over us economically.

Bruce Cobb
December 5, 2020 10:34 am

Careful – if you Lancet, you might wind up with Green stuff.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
December 5, 2020 12:49 pm

In response to Mr Snook, I’m planning to send the Prime Minister a letter before claim in judicial review, on the ground that, particularly given the vast economic damage caused by the Chinese curse, the ludicrous economy-destroying proposals that he has been issuing are irrational and consequently ultra vires the Government. I shall be asking him to get his fave climate “scientists” to produce a considered reply to our paper demonstrating that the climate scam is rooted in a huge scientific error, by which the feedback response to direct warming by the preindustrial noncondensing greenhouse gases has been overstated by 3200%. This 33-fold exaggeration – our lockdown project was to quantify it – leads to a tripling of equilibrium climate sensitivity. Divide all predictions by 3 and you end up with too little global warming to matter – well within natural variability. I look forward to their answer. If they don’t give a reasoned answer, they lose the case.

James Snook
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
December 5, 2020 3:25 pm

Thank you.

Sara
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
December 6, 2020 4:54 am

Politely put, and snippy and snooty enough to make even me happy. Elegant, to say the least.

Keep it up, Big Guy!

mark
Reply to  Sara
December 7, 2020 2:26 pm

I totally agree! Thank you, m’Lord.

December 5, 2020 10:36 am
DMacKenzie
December 5, 2020 10:43 am

Christopher,
At “misplaced” they threw your letter in the blue bin…..

Jean Parisot
Reply to  DMacKenzie
December 5, 2020 12:18 pm

At least they recycled…

John K. Sutherland.
December 5, 2020 10:45 am

Thank you for this timely article.

NeedleFactory
December 5, 2020 10:49 am

The third figure lists about thirty banks, some in purple, some in red.
What’s the difference between “red banks” and “purple banks”?

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  NeedleFactory
December 5, 2020 12:50 pm

The image is of a slide I use in my talks: it is easier to see the names of the individual banks if their colors are alternated.

Mad Mac
December 5, 2020 10:49 am

In the mid 70’s I was a co author on a paper that was published in Lancet. I was particularly proud of that publication. I have been following the decline of many journals and the buy in of AGW by many publications. Sad

Kpar
Reply to  Mad Mac
December 5, 2020 11:27 am

I used to read “Science News” weekly, but had to cancel my subscription due to this and other issues.

Then I had to stop reading Scientific American. Same problem.

Thank God for Wattsupwiththat. I can stay pretty current without having my intelligence insulted.

Mike Dubrasich
December 5, 2020 10:56 am

Is this the same Lancet that was forced to retract their Mehra et al. paper last summer because it denied the benefits HCQ with phony fraudulent data? Their quackery (and that of other vicious scientrash con artists) likely resulted in the deaths of a million people or more. Hey Lancet, your crackpot political agenda is showing. Put a bag over your head.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
December 5, 2020 12:51 pm

Editorial, December 2

Jeffery Topps
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
December 8, 2020 2:49 pm

Because of The Lancet and other political hacks, HQL was not used widely in the UK, EU and the US. It has helped keep deaths/per/million population to the lowest levels in the World in India, Cameroon and Nigeria, where it has been used since the first outbreak of the Wuhan/China flu. But, hey,
let’s follow the (pseudo)science. “They lied and tens of thousands died. “

Kevin Hearle
December 5, 2020 11:05 am

Is this the link to the Lancet article https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32579-4/fulltext or is it the report mentioned in the article that you are responding to?

Mike Lowe
December 5, 2020 11:07 am

The Lancet should stick to their own knitting and expertise, if they still have any. Virtue-signalling to follow the crowd only displays ignorance of the facts.

oebele bruinsma
December 5, 2020 11:29 am

Dear Christopher,

My compliments replacing the Global warming postulate with pustule; a word Hercule Poirot might have used while investigating a crime. Thank you

Cristiano
December 5, 2020 11:31 am

Dear Lord Monkton of Berkley,
My most sincere respect for this very well written answer to a very bad paper that, as a MD, I never thought could find it’s way to what I thought was the most serious medical journal in the world, at least until the publication of the disgraceful Mehra et al. paper, that made me think their editorial board should have taken a holiday. Clearly they are still of for tea.

Nick Graves
December 5, 2020 11:32 am

I enjoyed the ‘sin of emission’ line particularly.

John Garrett
December 5, 2020 11:32 am

Lord M,

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ × 1,000,000

Brilliant, as usual.

Thank you !!!!!

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  John Garrett
December 5, 2020 12:52 pm

Many thanks to Mr Garrett for his kind rating.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
December 5, 2020 5:30 pm

👍. Me, too.

Gary
December 5, 2020 11:35 am

The brilliant Paul Homewood has given his thoughts on this Lancet report – https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/12/04/lancets-heat-related-deaths-con-trick/

Steve Case
December 5, 2020 11:41 am

You have said China must do more, but China – though it has its own space programme and continues to occupy Tibet by military force – is exempt from Paris on the ground that it is a “developing country”. It is not required to forswear its sins of emission.

Now that’s a nugget worth including in my file of quotes, factoids & smart remarks.

Ian Coleman
December 5, 2020 12:06 pm

They’re doctors. They’re doctors, right? This means they’ve graduated from medical school, endured a cruelly arduous apprenticeship as medical residents, and have acquired a wide knowledge of how to diagnose and treat human ailments. How doe this qualify them to pass judgement on the accuracy of predictions about climate change? Do they also write articles on the law or engineering? Give tips on interior decorating?

bethan456@gmail.com
Reply to  Ian Coleman
December 5, 2020 12:48 pm

Ian, if we follow your line of reasoning, Moncockton is not qualified to make any pronouncement on climate. He’s been trained in the classics, and journalism, but not in science.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
December 5, 2020 4:01 pm

Yes
But shouldn’t medical journals focus on…medical “stuff”.

Journals have a bullpen of peer/pal reviewers out in the world, I do such things for IEEE Transactions at times, but by definition the Lancet peer reviewers would not have the background the vet this sort of thing.

Why not have the cast of Sesame Street review and publish it instead?
Or the Marx brothers?

bethan456@gmail.com
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
December 5, 2020 5:22 pm
James Stagg
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
December 6, 2020 1:18 pm

Video is blocked by BBC.

Moderately Cross of East Anglia
December 5, 2020 12:06 pm

Brilliant letter but I don’t think they will have the professional integrity and honesty to publish the letter.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Moderately Cross of East Anglia
December 5, 2020 12:55 pm

Moderately Cross is probably right. Though the editors will not necessarily be any the wiser after receiving my letter, at least they will be better informed.

michael hart
December 5, 2020 12:12 pm

It does make you wonder who they think the final audience is for climate claptrap published in the Lancet.

Do they expect Doctors to swallow it and then give their patients a stern talking to about the dangers of global warming when they came in to see the Doctor about prostate problems or pregnancy issues?

But there aren’t many lay people who read the Lancet. My first guess is they just hope the general MSM will print stories like “Look even your Doctor believes in cAGW, so you must do what the government/greens tell you.” I think most people are able to see this as a bit pathetic.

My second guess is to ask the question: “So who is paying the Lancet to print this?” While advertorials are not officially allowed at places like the BBC and, hopefully, still not the Lancet, it is not uncommon these days for someone to employed as an “external consultant/contractor”. It is rather easier for such people to accept bribes without being caught or disciplined.

MarkW
Reply to  michael hart
December 5, 2020 5:42 pm

A decade or two ago, the AMA floated a proposal to have family doctor’s question parents as to whether there was a gun in the house, with instructions to both record this information in the patients records and to give the patients a stern lecture on the dangers of guns.

Editor
December 5, 2020 12:31 pm

Thanks, Christopher. That was a treat to read.

Regards,
Bob

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 5, 2020 12:56 pm

Many thanks, Bob!

Coeur de Lion
December 5, 2020 12:57 pm

Any way a wider distribution? Copy all broadsheet editors?

Hotscot
December 5, 2020 12:58 pm

A classic Chris.

Thank you. The point I make out almost daily on the BBC facebook climate alarmist page. Known as BBC scientific something or other tosh.

Whilst the smug, western industrial west sits on it’s duff and refuses to allow true developing nations to emerge from poverty, several million people a year die from entirely preventable conditions.

The west has the cure, cheap, reliable, fossil fuel derived electricity, but is insanely wanting to move to expensive, unreliable, dirty renewables, which are anything but renewable in the sense they imagine.

And how TF do we get rid of Boris and his operating hand, Princess Nut Nut!

And as loyal as I have been to the Conservative party, I will seek out Nigel Farage as my next candidate for PM.

He has a pragmatic, Maggie like approach to true Conservatism, rather than the Totalitarian Boris lockdown and Climate Industrial Revolution of the current Conservative cabal.

I believed them redeemable with a decent majority, but they are reprehensible, anti democracy, and have used their majority to browbeat the British public instead of allying with them when the most amazing opportunity presented itself.

There is no going back. I’m jumping ship for Farage.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Hotscot
December 5, 2020 5:14 pm

In response to HotScot, unfortunately Farage has decided to go along with the global warming claptrap. But I shall be leaning on Boris. I have a method of making sure he pays attention to our result showing that the whole climate scam was based on an elementary scientific error.

Hotscot
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
December 6, 2020 3:49 am

Chris

I don’t imagine for a moment Boris is intelligent enough to understand a word of the science.

Going down Professor Michael Kelly’s route might bear more fruit as it’s straightforward for me to understand.

He calculated around the same time as I did (not that I imagine I am in the same league, or any league for that matter) that the cost of converting every house in the UK with a heat pump, insulation, ventilation, D/Glazing etc. was around £100,000, or around £3Tn.

Simple enough exercise, I got quotes to do exactly that for my small, 3 bedroom, end terrace Victorian Listed Building then multiplied it by the number of dwellings in the country.

I didn’t, of course, include the cost of the nice new Electric Vehicle I will be forced to buy come 2030, nor the modifications to the street (I am one of the 40% with no off street parking in the UK) where every one will need to be rewired from the brand new sub station to the nearest lamp post, for me, or in other cases, up to the consumer unit in the house so we can charge our EV’s overnight. Nor did I include the cost to the grid, with all those shiny new sub stations and cabling.

But what Michael Kelly did also point out was the cost to the planet and mankind. Apart from establishing that the UK has about one third of the manpower to accomplish all this work, he made the following observations in one of his essays:

“If we replace all of the UK vehicle fleet with EVs, and assuming they use the most resource-frugal next-generation batteries, we would need the following materials:

• 207,900 tonnes of cobalt – just under twice the annual global production;

• 264,600 tonnes of lithium carbonate – three quarters of the world’s production;

• at least 7,200 tonnes of neodymium and dysprosium – nearly the entire world production of neodymium;

• 2,362,500 tonnes of copper – more than half the world’s production in 2018.

And this is just for the UK. It is estimated that the manufacturing capacity for EV batteries would have to increase more than 500-fold if we want the whole world to be transported by electric vehicles. The vast increases in the supply of the materials described above would go far beyond known reserves.

Awra best Chris.

Have a Merry Christmas and a Good New Year.

Gordon A. Dressler
December 5, 2020 1:02 pm

Wonderful letter, Lord Monckton. The pen—well, its Web-equivalent—is indeed mightier than any figurative sword that AGW/CAGW alarmists may carry. The strength lies in evidence-based truth.

And thank you for my word-for-the-day: “supererogatory”. Had to look up its meaning in an on-line dictionary, and I don’t recall ever before having seen it in print or having heard it spoken. 🙂

Loydo
December 5, 2020 2:46 pm

Monkers, (I hope you don’t mind me referring to you by a familiar sobriquet) when, and at what would you expect the Annual GHG Index to peak? Beause I guess even you don’t want it to keep rising indefinitely.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Loydo
December 5, 2020 4:04 pm

Why not?
We have a long way to go to get to the point when earth was a lush paradise covered with massive herds of massive animals.
You’re the one who thinks CO2 is bad, no need to project such fantasies upon others

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
December 5, 2020 5:12 pm

In response to Loydo, Professor Happer’s calculations show that, for all practical purposes, CO2 concentration is already close to effective saturation. In theory, adding more CO2 will always cause some warming, but Professor Happer – perhaps the world’s foremost radiation physicist – thinks the effect is all but spent. So there is really very little reason to want to interfere.

My own team’s research suggests that global warming has been exaggerated approximately threefold in the models, which are running very hot compared with reality. That means that, even with the unabated emissions that we can expect given that 90% of the world is exempt from Paris, there will not be enough global warming to worry about.

Loydo
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
December 5, 2020 7:04 pm

How does that square with: “The radiative forcing from anthropogenic greenhouse gases has increased in a fashion very close to a straight line (the dotted line above) for 40 years.”?

If what you’re saying is true; “all but spent”, why hasn’t it shown any sign of ‘flattening’?

Loydo
Reply to  Loydo
December 6, 2020 8:31 pm

I was hoping to get a response from Chris, but he seems to have gone quiet on the question.

fred250
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
December 5, 2020 9:49 pm

Leckner and Eggert showed BY ACTUAL MEASUREMENT that CO2 energy absorption tapers off at about 280ppm

comment image

Again, we have the situation of people assuming that radiation controls the atmosphere.

It doesn’t

Atmospheric energy is controlled by bulk energy transfer due to pressure differences.

These FAR outweigh any tiny theoretical forcing by internal radiation fluxes.

That is why NO-ONE has ever actually measured any warming due to atmospheric CO2

Loydo
Reply to  fred250
December 6, 2020 12:01 am

Not much “tapering off” here.
comment image?w=611&ssl=1

MarkW
Reply to  Loydo
December 5, 2020 5:38 pm

I believe breathing starts to get difficult if CO2 concentrations start to get about 40,000PPM, so we probably shouldn’t let it get that high.
Short of that, why not let it continue to increase, it has so little impact on the climate that it can’t be measured, and plants love the stuff.

alexei
Reply to  MarkW
December 5, 2020 7:22 pm

“…breathing starts to get difficult if CO2 concentrations start to get about 40,000PPM”

In the current pandemic, has anyone queried the effect of re-absorbing one’s own exhaled C02 when having to wear a mask all day (i.e. at work)? Since oxygen is crucial to healthy brain function, wouldn’t deprivation of it have some deleterious effect?

Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  alexei
December 6, 2020 10:40 am

alexei, the answer to your question is relatively simple. An above-normal level of CO2 that is absorbed in a person’s bloodstream will automatically trigger an increase in breathing that will increase breathing rate.

“If CO2 levels increase, the respiratory center( medulla and pons) is stimulated to increase the rate and depth of breathing. This increases the rate of CO2 removal and returns concentrations to normal resting levels.”
— source: https://courses.lumenlearning.com/nemcc-ap/chapter/the-process-of-breathing/#:~:text=CO2%20levels%20are%20the%20main,concentrations%20to%20normal%20resting%20levels.

“Inhaled air is by volume 78% nitrogen, 20.95% oxygen and small amounts of other gases including argon, carbon dioxide, neon, helium, and hydrogen.
“The gas exhaled is 4% to 5% by volume of carbon dioxide, about a 100 fold increase over the inhaled amount. The volume of oxygen is reduced by a small amount, 4% to 5%, compared to the oxygen inhaled. The typical composition is:
5.0–6.3% water vapor
79% nitrogen [17]
13.6–16.0% oxygen
4.0–5.3% carbon dioxide
1% argon
. . .”
—source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breathing#:~:text=The%20gas%20exhaled%20is%204,5.0%E2%80%936.3%25%20water%20vapor

So, re-breathing a single breath of exhaled air will still mean an intake of at least 13.6% O2 and at most 5.3% CO2 . . . meaning there will still be much more oxygen intake than CO2 intake.

The leakage through and around a porous face mask, with each inhalation and exhalation of a person’s breath, guarantees that most of any given inhalation will be fresh air at the normal levels of O2 and CO2. The inhalation of the very slight volume of previously-exhaled (residual) air resulting from wearing a loose-fitting mask with porous fabric will, at most, cause a very slight—perhaps unnoticeable—increase in the respiration rate of the person wearing such mask.

Wearing such a mask does NOT cause deprivation of oxygen.

James A Stagg
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
December 6, 2020 1:34 pm

You seem to fail to account for saturated masks. Nursing home personnel must remove masks frequently to allow oxygen inhalation.

Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
December 6, 2020 4:13 pm

James . . . uhhh, what is the gas volume of a “saturated mask” compared to the lung volume associated with an average person’s inhalation (aka lung “tidal volume”), which is about 500 ml?

I did not fail to account for such . . . I just totally ignored it as being insignificant.

bonbon
Reply to  MarkW
December 6, 2020 4:57 am

Apollo 13 CO2 measurements are available from NASA archives, converted from partial pressures.
Symptoms did appear around that level. They managed to clear it.
Someone measured the CO2 ppm in a busy office at 5000ppm, so people are used to it.
Submarine crews train at high CO2 ppm routinely.
Masks might increase CO2 and room levels should be taken into account. Regular airing is required in schools.

RT
December 5, 2020 2:55 pm

Great letter Lord Monckton. Now if the Lancet could only read. Has any CC prediction ever come true? They want to help people live better. Then help them improve their living standards. Electricity, better housing, safer food, just to start. The lancet has no place being misguided politicians.

VW
December 5, 2020 3:38 pm

Great eloquent and entertaining response.

I especially liked the part on the cost of climate change measures in terms of human suffering. Too many believers think that there is no downside in case they’re wrong.

Is there a document or video wherein we can find more of this, to share with the occasional misguided do-gooder?

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  VW
December 5, 2020 4:07 pm

Millions dying in the 3rd world due to climate change POLICY.

Eventually we will have to set up a Crimes Against Humanity trial in a poor African country where all these people will have to answer for all this needless death.

BoJo is the British PM, does he really need a lesson in the downsides of colonialism and imperialism?

Dpends
Reply to  VW
December 5, 2020 4:54 pm

Try The Great Global Warming Swindle

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  VW
December 5, 2020 5:08 pm

If VW gets in touch, I shall send him a brief outlining the results of my team’s latest research. I shall hope to write about it here shortly.

VW
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
December 5, 2020 5:19 pm

Thank you, that’s very kind. I’ll try to figure out how.

MarkW
Reply to  VW
December 5, 2020 5:40 pm

Most progressives have been conditioned to believe that there is no downside to government spending and government regulations.
So why not max out both.

RickWill
December 5, 2020 5:04 pm

There is no “Greenhouse Effect”. it is a fantasy. The average temperature over the surface of the Earth does not sit in the middle of the range of 271.3K at the sea ice interface and 305K the maximum possible ocean temperature (average being 288K) by any “Greenhouse Effect” nonsense. It is just the average of the two extremes.

Most people get the lower average – seawater does not exist as liquid below 271.3K. Sea ice is a good insulator so reduces rate of heat loss from the water below.

The other extreme it not as clear but knowing that the atmosphere switches to cloudburst mode when the atmospheric water column reaches 30mm gives a clue. At 38mm water column, daily cloudburst becomes possible and is onserved as monsoon or cyclones at latitudes above 10 degrees where Coriolis acceleration spins up the cloudburst to self-sustaining weather events.

Simply put, the shutters go up once the sea surface reaches 27C and sunlight is effectively blocked as the temperature approaches 32C such that open ocean surface temperature can never exceed 32C. Sunlight reflected rises dramatically above SST of 27C:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg3qPDHvnq-L6w5-5

By 28.5C the net energy into the tropical ocean surface is in decline:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg3vzCCr-yZNwAEVd

So please avoid giving credence to the “Greenhouse Effect” fairy tale.

The Earth is not warming up. The global surface temperature cannot change in century or millennia time scale and does not. This is the temperature data for the Nino34 region for the past 40 years:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg3j-MHBpf4wRGuhf
Zero trend as it must be. There are swings up and down due to ocean circulations but no longer term trend.

Any temperature measurement system that shows a trend across the entire surface is suspect. Look for the flaws in the measurement system. Earth has an exquisite thermostat that has maintained water over the surface for billions of years. Nothing can change that short of a massive asteroid hit. Massive volcanoes cause perturbations that are ironed out over a few years.

As soon as I see someone perpetuating the nonsense of “Greenhouse Effect”, I know they have little understanding of how the energy balance on Earth is maintained to set the surface temperature within a narrow range.

Alexy Scherbakoff
Reply to  RickWill
December 6, 2020 1:23 pm

When they measure temperature over land do they accommodate for lapse rate? It’s anywhere between 0.5 to 1 degree C per 100 metres.

December 5, 2020 6:21 pm

Dear Chris Benchley,
A very good telling of reality. Sadly, I don’t think it is very effective outside of rousing this milieu.
How many who commented actually read the depressingly nonsensical editorial it responds to:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32579-4/fulltext
I doubt anyone responsible for writing that editorial want to consider the factuality of their message.
In any case, the editorial is just the most recent fart from the Lancet’s ongoing climate change flatulence:
https://www.thelancet.com/countdown-health-climate
Yours respectively,
Dave of VerdeViews

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  verdeviewer
December 6, 2020 8:07 am

In response to “verdeviewer”, the late Fr. Vincent McNabb, OP, used to say: “Truth alone is worthy of our entire devotion.” One shuold never tire of telling the truth in the face of falsehood, for in traditional theology the dividing line between an honest attempt to state what is true and a dishonest attempt to state what is false is coterminous with the dividing line between good and evil.

One should never fall silent merely because no one seems to be listening. It is only where those who love the truth fall silent through fear of damage to their reputations from the peddlers of falsehood that the falsehoods prevail.

Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
December 6, 2020 10:01 am

Monckton of Brenchly: Apologies for fracturing your name, a rudeness inspired more by copious wee drams of Glenmorangie than distaste for aristocracy. Hooray for truth telling! Keep up the good work!

AndyHce
December 5, 2020 6:29 pm

Lord Monckton,
You wrote

“They were abandoned by court order a decade ago in Sweden at the instance of a brave doctor whom the medical authorities had attempted to prosecute because she cured all her diabetes patients by ignoring the guidelines and recommending a high-fat, low-carb diet.”

Any chance you have a reference, or at least the name of said doctor?

TonyN
Reply to  AndyHce
December 6, 2020 5:53 am

Andy,

When googling, try a list of words that might appear on the website you are seaching for.

e.g. Sweden doctor medical authorities prosecute cured diabetes patients high-fat, low-carb diet

gets you to:

http://blog.wellnessfx.com/2013/11/07/sweden-goes-low-carb-high-fat/

AndyHce
Reply to  TonyN
December 7, 2020 1:10 am

Thanks TonyN and Steve Richards

Steve Richards
Reply to  AndyHce
December 6, 2020 7:46 am

AndyHce, a bit of googling gave this lady who lost her job in 2006. Dr Annika Dahlqvist, a gp, with a strong interest in diet issues has led an interesting life. See here: pop this link into google translate:
https://annikadahlqvist.com/om-dr-annika-dahlqvist/

and read her bio.

I found her from a paper called: Food Fight! The Swedish Low-Carb/High Fat (LCHF) Movement and the Turning of Science Popularisation Against the Scientists

See: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09505431.2011.632000

It seems that Sweden’s “Low Carb High Fat” (LCHF) movement is large and strong. Who knew!

shortie of greenbank
Reply to  Steve Richards
December 6, 2020 2:17 pm

Thanks for the links. Being a carnivore myself it is always great to see some countries have, for a period of time, adopted a more sensible approach to dietary suggestions. This may have also helped their numbers of wuflu deaths being so relatively low despite no lockdowns.

Unfortunately the USDA food pyramid for the US 2020 doubles down on loading up the carbs and plant oils, there will be little to no type 2 diabetes ‘remission’ coming from that advice anytime soon. (this is the one fault from Lord Monckton’s submission that in medical terms remission would be more correct for type 2 than cure).

December 5, 2020 6:46 pm

The Lancet hasn’t been reputable pretty much this century. Remember the horrendous Iraq deaths statistical study, claiming 850k deaths, that was beyond mule fritters?

December 5, 2020 7:06 pm

All those banks that scorn the poor, they walk away from coal loans and China walks in as a SAVIOR to put them in debt and in thrall…
China WANTS all the banks to walk away from coal!

I wonder if any one has paid any attention to the REAL effects of dismissing the energy needs of poor countries – if the West shows it could care less and China shows they are happy to “help,” gives free political capital to China over and over again… Already South America is beholden on multiple levels to Chinese debtors and exploiters…

Ursus Augustus
December 5, 2020 8:16 pm

Fortunately, not being a medico or related profession I have no reason to read The Lancet. That said I do remember the utter junk paper it published, without peer review as it wanted to publish ahead of the US Presidentuial election in 2004, about civilian casualties in Iraq post invasion.

The statistical sampling was carried out by locals, for obvious personal security reasons, on ludicrously coarse sampling regime, i.e. a handful of locations including in places like Falluja which were still undergoing massive insurgency events involving tens of thousands of troops and insurgents, and lo and behold a grossed ( grotesqued) up national figure was extrapolated that was many times estimates based on actual counts conducted by the likes of Human Rights Watch.

The admitted reason for not even ‘pal’ review was given as getting in before the US election, i.e. to try and trash George W’s chances. Who would even use the Lancet for toilet paper after that?

Is the sort of schlok that Milord eviscerates herein any real surprise? It seems that is about the level of the Lancet. Perhaps the Lancet board needs to apply that insrument to the boil its own practices have become.

Farmer Ch E retired
December 5, 2020 9:20 pm

“You have said China must do more, but China – though it has its own space programme and continues to occupy Tibet by military force – is exempt from Paris on the ground that it is a “developing country”. It is not required to forswear its sins of emission.”

Top 10 sea ports:
China 7, USA 0;

Top 10 airports:
China 2, USA 0

Maybe the USA should be the developing country.

bonbon
Reply to  Farmer Ch E retired
December 6, 2020 5:36 am

US : 700 military bases and an application for a new Pacific center to “counter China”.
Imagine the cost!
China does not have that burden.

Robert of Texas
December 5, 2020 9:36 pm

While your attempt at using logic and facts to educate them is admirable, there is only one way to stop a hysterical mob of idiots – defund them. We need to convince people to stop contributing to NGO’s that push propaganda as science. We need to stop electing politicians that do not have the common sense to at least ask questions before funding and subsidizing failed technology approaches. We need to shun science journals that allow drivel to be published.

If they want an all electric car world, then it should be upon them to build electric cars worthy to compete and win without subsidies or regulations that force them upon people.

If they want a wind turbine electric grids, then it should be on them to solve for the “intermittent power” problem first, before building anymore turbines and without more subsidies and without drastically raising costs.

And when it becomes obvious they cannot deliver, we should put our efforts into new forms of nuclear energy, and better use of natural gas a efficient fuel for power companies.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Robert of Texas
December 6, 2020 5:58 am

In response to Robert of Texas, all the arguments he has mentioned have been tried. But the only way to defeat this nonsense is to show that the notion of global warming large enough to be dangerous is based on the elementary error of science that our team has identified.

December 6, 2020 1:51 am

HYPOTHESIS: RADICAL GREENS ARE THE GREAT KILLERS OF OUR AGE
By Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., April 14, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/04/14/hypothesis-radical-greens-are-the-great-killers-of-our-age/

COLD WEATHER KILLS 20 TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE AS HOT WEATHER
by Joseph d’Aleo and Allan MacRae, September 4, 2015
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf

Pabl
December 6, 2020 2:02 am

As I see it, the “Greenhouse Effect” by predominantly water vapour, is based on a theoretical resistance to radiative transfer from the surface to space based on temperatures of the upper atmosphere as they actually are, i.e. minus 60ºC at the tropopause and minus 18C mid troposphere, which would imply an average surface temperature of 60ºC.
This resistance to direct radiative cooling to space stimulates convection by increasing the near surface lapse rate to become super adiabatic and for convection to begin, sensible heat to within the boundary layer and latent heat above it.
Without convection, solar radiation coupled with this clear sky “greenhouse” radiative resistance would result in much higher daytime surface temperatures very close to the surface.
So any talk of an average surface temperature of minus 18ºC without water vapour and carbon dioxide is a complete misunderstanding of the reality of a pivoting of the thermal gradient around the minus 18ºC midtroposphere temperature by convection which reduces the average surface temperature by 45ºC and moves that extra sensible and latent heat into the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere for dispersal from the equator to the poles.

“large variations in column‐integrated water vapor above 850 mbar and particularly above 500 mbar account for nearly all the gradient in the greenhouse effect in the middle and upper troposphere. Coincident outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) analyses derived from satellite observations show active deep convection in areas with high clear‐sky greenhouse trapping and upper level moisture and generally clear, suppressed conditions elsewhere.”
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/94JD02323

Malcolm Chapman
December 6, 2020 3:50 am

Thank you m’lord for the splendid summary. It is good news to hear that you have a way of leaning on Boris. He does seem to respond to being leaned on. Please use it to good effect. And don’t tell anybody else what it is, until after it has worked.

Are the editors of the Lancet real doctors, or are they green/red entryists of the usual enthusiastic Gramscian kind? Or, I suppose, both?

bonbon
December 6, 2020 5:20 am

Shouldn’t the letter better be addressed to Mr. Horton, Lancet Editor-in-Chief?
He has a mixed record, being virulently AGW, while slamming the US and UK for delaying COVID measures, praising China for getting it’s act together.

This very same Horton delayed 12 years to retract Andrew Wakefield’s study, linking the measles vaccine to autism. He only took weeks to retract the Lancet Surgisphere HCQ hoax.

Monckton of Brenchley
December 6, 2020 5:57 am

In response to Bonbon, the letter was of course sent to Horton.

Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
December 6, 2020 11:30 am

Lord Monckton, on first thought, I was going to humbly and respectfully request that you send a copy of your above letter to Mr. John Kerry, US President-elect Joe Biden’s person designated to be his administration’s Special Presidential Envoy for Climate (aka “climate czar”).

But upon further reflection I realized that both Mr. Biden and Mr. Kerry were in the class having the mentality of “don’t confuse me with the facts, my mind’s made up”, and that such action by you would be futile.

The only high-level US politician that can think of who may be receptive to the facts that you eloquently summarize and present would be current Senator Ted Cruz, Republican representing the State of Texas. He is somewhat famous for his performance in verbally demolishing the global warming position of the Sierra Club via persistent questioning of its then-president Aaron Mair in a US Senate hearing on October 6, 2015.

Here’s the link to the video (which I highly recommend to you, if you have not previously watched it):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sl9-tY1oZNw&list=FLMCbHeNDDa-ixzv4Pdk1HNg&index=542

And here’s the link to the transcript of the audio, taken off the video:
http://www.globalwarming.org/2015/10/07/sierra-club-presidents-testimony-reveals-its-worse-than-we-thought-climate-change-no-group-think-about-climate-change/

JMR
December 6, 2020 2:21 pm

The list of banks fills me with anger and despair, but it points to an enormous opportunity for enterprising financial institutions that aren’t on the global warming bandwagon. Are any Western banks taking advantage of this, or has the entire field been left open to China?

Paul in uk
December 7, 2020 4:07 am

Can we try to persuade governments that the same kind of procedures, audits, certifications that apply to many areas of our lives, particularly products should apply to climate science?

I think the problem is few people will listen to alternative views on climate because in their view we’re in a climate emergency and must persuade the world to act because the apparent consensus of experts cannot possibly be wrong, sceptics are not qualified and are either stupid or deliberately trying to cast doubt and cause delay because they are being paid to or don’t want to change their lifestyles. Even if we could get through I imagine many will still not change, afraid of the consequences to them of questioning the apparent consensus and approved experts.

So I think we need to first show why all the above is wrong and dangerous:

My concern is that rather than being a win/win situation if we have the science wrong we are in a very dangerous position because we do not adequately understand longrange weather/climate and don’t know what real dangers lie ahead.

In many other high consequence areas of everyday life we have a system to avoid dangerous mistakes and give us confidence, like food hygiene certificates, kite marks for household goods, a wide system of procedures, independent audit, certification for aviation etc. From what I can make out little or none of this applies to climate science which to my mind is also producing a product of very high consequence if it fails. We would not accept lack of this in the examples above, so why climate science where the stakes are very high?

I think the relatively recent 737Max issue may be a good example, I may have it wrong, but think the problem was the FAA failed to remain independent of Boeing and failed to correct their inadequate use of procedures. The apparent consensus of experts seemed convinced the plane was safe. I think this example shows that despite our best efforts and intentions, however impossible it may seem the apparent consensus of experts can be wrong. If we do not have a suitable system, or in this case if it fails there are likely to be disastrous consequences for everyone. Shows the importance of learning the right lessons from mistakes (e.g. aircrash investigations), procedures, independent audit, certifications. In these kinds of engineering situations we also have many supplier/customer interactions where many of the customers will also be large engineering companies who need to be sceptical their suppliers product will do what it says on the tin which I think also greatly improves reliability.

I am not sure the current science system is the right kind of system to develop this kind of important product (understanding longrange weather/climate) with such massive implications for us all both if it is right or wrong; I think engineering works quite differently.

I presume much of the above mentioned procedures, audits, certification etc (e.g. food safety, household appliance, aviation etc) comes from governments; can we try to persuade governments that the same should apply to climate science? This is about getting the decisions right, avoiding dangerous mistakes.

Michael Ozanne
December 7, 2020 4:24 pm

I need some data on the actual service life of wind turbines before failure/replacement. Anyone got a decent source… Google-Fu has failed me…

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