Middle East Oil and Gas At The Cross-Roads under a Biden Presidency

By Dr. Tilak K. Doshi

Now that Joe Biden has most likely won the US presidential election, one might presume that the campaign rhetoric of the Democratic party will be pared back as the real costs of some of the more radical policies proposed become apparent in post-election reality. Most observers would contend, however, that the odds are low that a ‘tack back to the centre’ (a la President Clinton) will happen.

The Middle East is at the cross-roads, and policy choices made by a future Biden presidency will play a critical role in the outlook for the region’s oil and gas producers. As was apparent through the election campaigning, the contrast in Republican and Democratic world-views over fossil fuels and global energy geopolitics could not be starker. Joe Biden’s pledge to “transition away from the oil industry” in his last debate with Trump put climate change concerns as the top policy priority. He is more committed than any previous presidential nominee to take radical policy actions against the so-called “climate crisis”.  

Price and Propaganda Wars

In 2019, the U.S. outproduced Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest producer of petroleum. In response, Saudi Arabia launched a self-debilitating and unsuccessful price war  in late 2014 in its attempt to starve out the so-called high-cost producers that had powered the US “shale revolution”. US oil producers have faced not only market competition by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC allies which attempted to drive high-cost non-OPEC producers out of the market by increasing oil supplies and allowing prices to fall.

In 2017, a report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence found that the Sea Change Foundation – funded by a Bermuda-based shell corporation with direct ties to Putin and Russian oil interests — funnelled more than $43 million to environmental causes. The Foundation funded anti-fracking organizations like the Sierra Club and the Natural Resources Defence Council. Another report states “the Kremlin is financing and choreographing anti-fracking propaganda in the United States… Putin hopes to increase oil and gas prices, destabilize the U.S. economy and threaten America’s energy independence.”

The surge in U.S. oil and gas production over the past decade was used by President Trump to pursue the  “America First”  and “energy dominance” agendas. It increased its foreign policy leverage in achieving strategic objectives, giving his administration greater latitude to support allies and sanction rivals. But a Biden administration focused on constraining US oil and gas production in favour of renewable energy and climate change policy priorities would deliver what Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of the OPEC+ group have been seeking all along. It would achieve results that Saudi oil policy had consistently failed to attain by engaging in an all-out price war against a resilient US oil and gas sector.

On the face of it, things couldn’t be looking better for the major oil and gas producers. Under a Biden presidency, Saudi Arabia and Russia – along with other OPEC+ members – face the incredible prospect of their largest competitor agreeing to exit the industry voluntarily. No price or disinformation wars need to be waged by US competitors as the Biden administration forces a “transition” away from oil and gas production. It would seem that Russia’s propaganda war against fracking was the more effective strategy than the Saudi price war, given that a Biden presidency would be stacked by advisors on climate change which support the very same NGOs funded by the Russians.

Checks and Balances

There are limits as to what a US Presidency can do within constitutional limits. There is the likelihood that the US Senate will remain Republican and hence provide a check on the more extreme pledges made in the name of ‘net zero’ emissions in the power sector by 2035 and in the entire economy by 2050.

Even if the Republicans lose control of the Senate, support from senators of states which rely most on fossil fuels either as producers or consumers may not be forthcoming.  Moderates from both parties in oil and gas-dependent states such as Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas would be fearful of destroying jobs and tax-revenues while recovering from the devastating pandemic-induced lockdowns.

Nevertheless, oil and gas producers can count on Mr. Biden to undo most of President Trump’s initiatives in energy and environmental affairs, even if blocked by an uncooperative Congress. As promised, he would issue Executive Orders aimed at ending fracking and oil and gas drilling in federal lands. A politicized Environmental Protection Agency – following the previous Obama-Biden playbook – would discourage the fossil fuels development on private lands in countless ways through administrative and regulatory procedures. The blocking of oil and gas pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure would be enabled by activists launching legal suits, as in the recent case of the Dakota Access Pipeline.

The Iran Factor

While hobbling US oil and gas production, a Biden administration will also consider ceasing President Trump’s sanctions on Iran. Given Biden’s loyalty to President Obama’s legacy project to rehabilitate Iran, he would return to the 2015 nuclear deal if Tehran “resumes compliance”. It would be impossible for the OPEC+ production cut agreement to balance global supply and demand were Iranian exports (of over 2.5 million b/d) to resume. The OPEC+ agreement would collapse, along with oil prices from their already low $40/barrel levels. Key OPEC officials are “wary that strains in the OPEC+ alliance could re-emerge with Joe Biden as U.S. President”; indeed, they “would miss President Donald Trump who went from criticising the group to helping bring about a record oil output cut”.

The economic outlook of the Middle East oil and gas producers depends crucially on whether the US ceases to be the world’s leading oil and gas producer (leading to a reprieve from low oil and gas prices) or it drops the sanctions on Iranian exports (leading to even lower oil and gas prices).

Dr. Tilak K. Doshi

Senior Visiting Research Fellow, Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore

0 0 votes
Article Rating
107 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Scissor
November 29, 2020 6:11 pm

I’m still of the opinion the fat lady still hasn’t sung and perhaps Joe will fall down a flight of stairs or something.

Bryan A
Reply to  Scissor
November 29, 2020 6:32 pm

Who’s to say, President Harris could be far worse

Mike McMillan
Reply to  Bryan A
November 29, 2020 7:49 pm

Former Vice President Biden took a page from Richard Nixon.

Nixon selected Spiro Agnew as his running mate, knowing they’d never impeach him if it meant Agnew would take over. Not to be deterred, the pols got rid of Agnew first, clearing the impeachment firing range.

So, if the vote thieves manage to get away with it, we’ll have to go after Harris first. Politically, of course. After all, she would be our second veep-of-color.

Brooks Hurd
Reply to  Mike McMillan
November 30, 2020 8:33 am

This is similar to Obama’s choice of Biden. After reading Game Change, I had the impression that Michelle Obama was extremely worried that Barack would be assassinated. If he were elected. My impression was that Joe Biden was selected as Obama’s running mate to ease Michelle’s concerns. After all, why would anyone be so foolish as to assassinate Barack Obama and thus have Joe Biden as president.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Bryan A
November 29, 2020 7:57 pm

Both are controlled by Obama and the hidden figures behind him.
The best way to think of what is being established, Obama is the leader a New World Politburo, aka a leadership head of a Central Committee. This Obama-led politburo is forming to control the US and ultimately be the lead on integrating actions with a similar Central Committee forming around the EU executive council of ministers.

This will be a true politburo in every sense of the word, where they control a puppet figure head from behind the curtain they’v erected. The media plays along with the gas-lighting ht public as well as the out-right propaganda.

From the wiki on “politburo”: In Marxist–Leninist states, the party is seen as the vanguard of the people and from that legitimizes itself to lead the state. Essentially, the party officials in the Politburo informally lead the state.

Obama plans to informally run the US thru his puppet, either a dementia-ridden, weak Joe Biden or (when Joe’s dementia becomes an open liability to that control) a compliant K Harris.

Izaak Walton
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 29, 2020 8:28 pm

Do you believe the moon landing was fake as well?

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0956797612457686

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 29, 2020 9:46 pm

Did you beat your wife this week Izaak?

Izaak Walton
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 29, 2020 10:13 pm

Joel,
I have to know, who are these “hidden figures”? The knights templar? Illuminati? The same people Nasa used?

beng135
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 30, 2020 10:12 am

Izaakoff sez:
Do you believe the moon landing was fake as well?

Obviously you believe in fake accusations.

Chad C. Mulligan
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 29, 2020 10:17 pm

Obama is not a leader of anything. He’s a figurehead only. Like Zaphod Beeblebrox, he was placed in the Presidency not to wield power, but to draw attention away from it.

Izaak Walton
Reply to  Chad C. Mulligan
November 29, 2020 11:35 pm

so who has the power? Currently the person pulling the strings appears to be Mitch McConnell. He prevented Obama from appointed a supreme court judge and while Trump has spent the last 4 years sending out inflamatory tweets has been hard at work confirming as many extreme right wing judges as possible. And as long as McConnell is the senate majority leader Biden will be effectively powerless.

beng135
Reply to  Chad C. Mulligan
November 30, 2020 10:56 am

izod sneakers:
Currently the person pulling the strings appears to be Mitch McConnell

ROFLMFAO. You’re either not a US resident or you are totally clueless. Prb’ly both. The US un-elected bureaucratic state pulls the strings, Sherlock.

Bill Powers
Reply to  Chad C. Mulligan
November 30, 2020 12:29 pm

That is exactly right Chad. Anyone paying attention knows what you say to be true. The K Street lawyers direct the bureaucrats who represent the permanent Government and pull the levels.

They do so on behalf of the Progressive Globalist 1% of the 1percenters who control 99% of the real wealth in the world i.e. land, gold, silver, oil, minerals, et.al. Politicians are simply bad actors who need cue cards and teleprompter to sound even remotely intelligent because they haven’t quite figured out how to use ventriloquists for their public appearances.

People like Isaak are either Tools or Fools of those Puppet Masters who own the K Street Puppeteers who pull the Puppet politicians’ stings. My guess is he is a Tool, paid by Media Matters, to SPIN this nonsense on comment boards in order to keep any fools that stumble onto this board believing that the two party system is running the show and that the Right side is the antagonist in this little farce and the Left side represents the brave protagonist fighting on behalf of the little (read Public School indoctrinated ignorant) people.

Bill Powers
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 30, 2020 12:12 pm

Joel, If you ever paid attention to Obama, on the rare occasions he was caught out on camera speaking extemporaneously, you would realize that he was nothing more than another politician hand puppet of the Faceless Cultural Progressive Elite that control both the Demoplicans and Republicrats.

These Northeastern elite Ivy leaguers are the hidden figures with their hand up the butts of the very best 2 party political system their money can buy.

Henning Nielsen
Reply to  Bryan A
November 30, 2020 5:57 am

Bryan A; at least Harris is still om her two feet. Biden is tending his sore ankle and playing with his dogs, Major, Champ and…who’s the third one? Hunter?

John Adams
Reply to  Henning Nielsen
December 4, 2020 2:09 pm

Isn’t Harris a round heeled woman? Maybe she doesn’t work as well on her feet.

bluecat57
Reply to  Scissor
November 29, 2020 6:33 pm

GMTA. I should have read your comment. I just started rage typing.

Joe Wagner
Reply to  Scissor
November 29, 2020 6:38 pm

He falling down steps makes Kamalla President..which is arguably worse

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Joe Wagner
November 29, 2020 8:19 pm

Dementia Joe is now in a walking boot. Claiming to have twisted his ankle playing with his dog.

Next up, his dog ate his speech, as the excuse to why he forgot the words he wanted to say.

Francisco
Reply to  Scissor
November 29, 2020 6:50 pm

Then you get Kamala. If he doesn’t eat it before the swearing into office, give him a month

Scissor
Reply to  Francisco
November 29, 2020 7:26 pm

Not necessarily. The odds are against him, but with all the voting fraud being uncovered, don’t assume anything yet.

mcswell
Reply to  Scissor
November 30, 2020 5:43 am

I haven’t seen one iota of voter fraud uncovered. What are you reading?

mkelly
Reply to  mcswell
November 30, 2020 6:27 am

Not sure what your definition of fraud is but dead people voting seems a good example. So much more evidence than an iota has been proven.

Scissor
Reply to  mcswell
November 30, 2020 6:39 am

Not the MSM. Go a little deeper and I’m sure you can find it. You might start with some of the lawsuits.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  mcswell
November 30, 2020 7:52 am

I’ve seen a lot of allegations of voter fraud, but I haven’t seen any evidence so far, that this fraud will amount to enough numbers to overturn the election.

Trump’s tv interview yesterday was less than reassuring, and he did not offer any additional evidence of voter fraud in the numbers he needs to change the outcome. Although he did say that his lawyers had enough evidence to overturn hundreds of thousands of votes and win all the contested States. But he provided no evidence.

What was particularly disturbing to me was his answer when Maria asked him what the Department of Justice and the FBI were doing to investigate the voter fraud, and Trump said he didn’t know what they were doing.

Trump claims he has the numbers to reverse the outcome. Trump will have to produce this evidence, otherwise it is just whining. If he can’t, then it is President Joe Biden, and the nation heads down the Road to Ruin of Socialism and radicalism and delusion.

I sure hope Trump has the evidence. We have to have evidence, Donald. Just like we have to have evidence that Human-caused Climate Change is real before we believe it. Asserting that the election was stolen isn’t good enough. Only hard evidence will suffice. Turn that Kraken loose!

Clyde
Reply to  mcswell
November 30, 2020 6:58 pm

comment image

There’s so much evidence that it’ll take a bit for this web page to load:
https://hereistheevidence.com/

Mr Bliss
Reply to  Francisco
November 30, 2020 12:45 pm

I think the plan was always to get Kamala – look how long’Biden’ took to nominate his running mate. She hardly appeals to the average democrat voter – her poor polling numbers and early exit from the presidential race show that. Why would ‘Biden’ choose such an unpopular running mate, when the smart money is on her being president within 12 months. She must have been the candidate deemed most likely to be controllable

Dennis G Sandberg
Reply to  Scissor
November 29, 2020 6:56 pm

Scissor, are you sure you want Kamala Harris as President?

Scissor
Reply to  Dennis G Sandberg
November 29, 2020 8:29 pm

I’m sure I don’t.

ggm
Reply to  Dennis G Sandberg
November 29, 2020 9:52 pm

Kamala is exactly what the US needs. The US has lost it’s way. The fact that a 47 year failed politician like Biden and a radical extremist like Harris could be elected means the US has already fallen and is past the point of no return. At this point, the quicker the collapse, the quicker the nation can rebuild – and Kamala is the best person for the job of destroying the US quickly. Sadly countries like us (Australia) will suffer terribly as China takes over.

TonyG
Reply to  ggm
November 30, 2020 9:11 am

Sadly, that’s about what I’ve been thinking too. Let’s just get it over with already so we can get to work on rebuilding from the rubble.

Pariah Dog
Reply to  Scissor
November 29, 2020 7:58 pm

Didn’t he just fall over his own dog or something?

Scissor
Reply to  Pariah Dog
November 30, 2020 6:40 am

Doesn’t pass the sniff test.

Mr Bliss
Reply to  Pariah Dog
November 30, 2020 1:35 pm

But was it his dog that tripped Biden up? Or was it a specially-trained substitute dog – recruited from the Arkancide training school?

Jeffrey H Kreiley
Reply to  Scissor
November 30, 2020 4:38 am

With that cat he has that may happen. Mine is always under my feet.

bluecat57
November 29, 2020 6:32 pm

Why are you writing about something that will never happen? Biden will never be President.

Izaak Walton
Reply to  bluecat57
November 29, 2020 7:45 pm

care to explain your thinking?

bluecat57
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 30, 2020 4:46 am

Sure. The election was fraudulent and Biden is a criminal accepting bribes. Try reading a non-propaganda news source.

Scissor
Reply to  bluecat57
November 29, 2020 8:30 pm

Here’s a fair update.

Izaak Walton
Reply to  Scissor
November 29, 2020 8:38 pm

seriously? Sidney Powell’s suites are full of typo ridden nonsense. They are going
nowhere. Next you will be claiming US special forces have seized a server in Germany that has the real election results on it.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 29, 2020 9:23 pm

Me thinks you’re watching too much MSM and the talking heads of CNN. I don’t know anything about Sidney Powell’s “suites”, but clearly your knowledge of law is no better than your command of the language … her SUITS are already having great success. The election was unquestionably fraudulent. The only problem will be overcoming the massive extent of it in time. Biden definitely didn’t receive more voted than either Clinton of Obama. Open your eyes.

Izaak Walton
Reply to  Rory Forbes
November 29, 2020 9:52 pm

Rory,
name a single success her lawsuites are having?

bluecat57
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 30, 2020 4:49 am

Revolver .news lots of successes.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 30, 2020 12:23 pm

Methinks that if the shoe was on the other foot and vote was being diluted by fraud, you’d be singing a different tune.

Mr bliss
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 30, 2020 1:37 pm

*Let’s get that server moved outa Germany right now*

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Scissor
November 29, 2020 9:29 pm

I have to agree with Izaak on this one. None of these legal challenges are going anywhere, even at the Supreme Court. The Court will summarily reject the legal challenges to State certifications if they a filed there.

bluecat57
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 30, 2020 4:50 am

They go where the complainants take them. Revolver .news has plenty of stories on where they are going.

mcswell
Reply to  Scissor
November 30, 2020 5:46 am

I guess that’s why Trump kicked her off his legal team, right? Because she’s so successful.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  mcswell
November 30, 2020 10:11 am

I understand it’s pointless to try explaining to you low information Democrats about how your country’s legal system works. It’s even more pointless to mention that the MSM, along with big tech are shadow banning and openly censoring any real information … but there is information out there. Sidney Powell was not “kicked off Trump’s legal teem”. She was never on it … and for very specific legal reasons. When you know nothing (like you) it’s best to remain silent.

eck
November 29, 2020 7:01 pm

“so-called “climate crisis”. “! More accurately that should be …”the fictitious climate crisis”. Therein lies the problem with all of the radical BS.

brianjohn
November 29, 2020 7:18 pm

Here’s what MIGHT happen:
– IF the recent attack (supposedly by Israel) on Iran’s nuclear weapon guru leads to no resurrection of the Iranian/US agreement
– IF Biden/Kerry et al are able to stifle shale oil development

Oil prices will increase. How much? Who knows? Depends on when the Pandemic is over and people start travelling again. Depends on supply dynamics following the outcome of Biden/Kerry shale killing attempt. Depends on what actions (if any other than sabre rattling) that Iran takes against it’s neighbors and the US. They will NOT do anything more to provoke Israel.

Shortfalls to US demand will be made up with imports from Canada (??) Saudi Arabia (??)

Gotta go now. My crystal ball needs de-icing.

davidmhoffer
Reply to  brianjohn
November 29, 2020 9:55 pm

They will come from Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have already let it slip that if it were not for the election, they would have normalized relationships with Israel. They decided to wait to do it on Biden’s watch. No surprise why. They will want something in return. Their number 1 ask will be to keep the noose tight on Iran’s neck. Number 2 ask will be a deal to their liking on oil, which goes hand in hand with the noose around Iran’s neck.

Biden/Harris have a new reality to deal with in the middle east. The Arab countries fear an Iranian bomb as much as Israel does. Their support of the Palestinians gains them nothing, an alliance with Israel is in their best interest both militarily as well as economically. Biden may want to resume Obama era policies, but he’ll have major push back from a broad swath of the middle east if he does.

michael hart
Reply to  davidmhoffer
November 30, 2020 8:58 am

And what’s more…
As President, Biden can reasonably expect much larger kickbacks than when he was merely vice-president. Saudi Arabia look like a client that might be able to afford his needs.

observa
November 29, 2020 7:26 pm

Well Biden will have a bit on his plate immediately he’s sworn in as the caravans are unleashed from across the border-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/how-joe-biden-handles-the-aftermath-of-trump-s-immigration-policy-will-be-telling/ar-BB1bslT5
If the US had an honest media and they’re sure he’s the President in waiting they’d be asking now what he proposes to do about that eventuality.
At the same time he’s expected to fix Covid. Methinks the honeymoon period won’t be a long one as symbolic gestures on the foreign policy front won’t cut much ice domestically.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  observa
November 30, 2020 8:13 am

“Well Biden will have a bit on his plate immediately he’s sworn in as the caravans are unleashed from across the border-”

Yes, that’s a pretty good bet. All of the poor in South America will be heading to the United States to collect that free housing and free medical care and free food and other welfare benefits, with the rest of the world’s poor not far behind.

If I were a poor person that’s where I would be headed. The Land of Milk and Honey. And it’s all Free !!! All I have to do is show up. What a wonderful world!

Those Democrats are *so* generous. With other people’s money. Eventually, they will run out of other people’s money to spend and that will put a natural break on the millions of people who would otherwise pour into the U.S. Of course, by that time, illegal immigration would be the least of our problems.

The Democrat Socialists want us to live in their Delusional World now, and they may just have the political power to make us do it. Conservatives and those who love personal freedoms have a political fight on their hands no matter which way this election goes.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Tom Abbott
November 30, 2020 10:30 am

Their intention has always been to regularly tap off large amounts of their “generosity” with other people’s money”. The object of socialism (from the politicians perspective) is to initiate large, useless programs which enrich friends and cronies (exactly like Obama did). Then upon retirement they get pay back.

Joel O'Bryan
November 29, 2020 7:41 pm

There are still Black Swans set to land. We don’t know what we don’t know. Expect some surprises in the next 50 days.

Will the US (joined by maybe Saudis and Israel) launch an attack to take out the Iranian nuclear facilities in the coming weeks? Such an attack, even it it was highly successful from a military objective standpoint, would greatly handicap anything President Obiden might want to do regarding an Iranian rapprochement and appeasement of a now-furious Ayatollah.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed revenge against Israel as they think it was an Israeli assassination last week of their Iranian version of “Robert Oppenheimer”, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh who was Iran’s top nuclear scientist overseeing all their nuclear development for several decades now. Plus they are still furious and were made to look weak by the easy drone assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s top Quds Force general in January when he stupidly thought he could openly visit with Shiite militias in Iraq with US forces all around.

I still believe more than ever that Joe Biden is completely unfit for the Office of President, at both the physical and mental demands it places on the office holder. The main stream media is still covering up Dementia Joe’s lack of physical stamina and his diminished executive function, an failing most commonly seen as a failing recall memory when he flubs easy to remember numbers or names.

The “Weak Man of the Potomac” Biden will play out in huge ways in unforeseen geopolitical calculations of what a President Biden means, decisions made in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran on how far to push the US.
What I think we can see out of Trump in the coming weeks before he is forced to leave.
1) Leave Iran- US nuclear agree in a such state that Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, controlled by Obama, from being able to conduct a rapprochement with Iran.
2) Place US 7th Fleet forces and air and naval ‘FON’ trips thu the East and South China Seas and be in a position in the West Pac/ to deter President Xi and the PLA Chicommies from conducting a Taiwan invasion until at least mid-February when Beijing Joe has ordered the 7th Fleet back to harbor docks.

We are entering in dangerous times now with a dementia-ridden Joe Biden about to assume the US Presidency. No amount of US media hiding Joe’s lack of cognitive function can stop Moscow and Beijing leadership from seeing Joe’s dementia with their own eyes as their embassies are reporting back to them the truth about Biden.
It is only the US public that is being lied to now by the US media about Biden’s unfitness for the office.

Harkle Pharkle
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 29, 2020 9:25 pm

Dementia Joe is firmly in Beijing’s pocket, along with Griff in all his forms. Will we see open civil war? Will Obiden bring in Chinese troops to quell the riots?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Harkle Pharkle
November 30, 2020 8:31 am

“Will we see open civil war?”

I don’t think so. You don’t see the Right out on the streets tearing things up, do you? The Right won’t take to the streets unless they have a good reason, and if they do take to the streets, they will do it in a peaceful fashion, although they will defend themselves from facists thugs like Antifa, when they attack peaceful protestors.

Now, if the Courts or the State Legislatures end up giving Trump the election, it is a certainty that the Radical Left will be out on the streets causing mayhem and havoc. I don’t know in what numbers they would turn out, as the really radical, violent anarchists on the Left are small in number, although they make a lot of noise, especially in places that won’t allow law enforement to crack down on them.

So if Trump wins, there will be violent protests on the Left, but since Trump won, he will send in the National Guard in all affected places, mostly the Blue States, and will quell the violence in short order.

If Trump can’t produce evidence that the election was stolen, then those on the Right will accept that Biden has won and will not take to the streets.

If Trump can produce evidence that the election was stolen, and the Powers that Be/Swamp don’t give Trump the presidency, then the people on the Right will be righteously upset, and I don’t know exactly what they will do in such a circumstance. They won’t go away quetly. I don’t know if that will culminate in violence, or in an increase in political activity. I hope it is the latter.

If Trump doesn’t have the evidence, then there won’t be any violence. If Trump prevails and remains president, then the Left will turn to violence because that is the only thing they know. Their return to violence will not be morally justified if the Courts and State Legislatures say they lose because the law has been followed. The same applies to the Right.

Brooks Hurd
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 30, 2020 8:49 am

If Kamala Harris and the progressive wing of the Democrats use the 25th Amendment on uncle Joe, the Oval Office occupant would be someone with zero foreign policy experience. Should that happen it would be reasonable to expect that Iran, China and Russia would be emboldened even more than they already are by the prospect of a Biden administration.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Brooks Hurd
November 30, 2020 10:30 am

As things stand now, there will not be any use of the 25th amendment unless the Georgia senate races are both stolen.

Why? Because if an alert Biden asserts that he is not incapacitated then both the House and Senate must concur with the VP and cabinet with a majority vote to remove him. Senate Republicans won’t support the vote if Biden claims to be competent, knowing that the alternative is to raise Harris to the Presidency. Only in a 50-50 Senate could the cabal prevail, with comrade K herself casting the tiebreaker. But there may well be Democrat senators who would support Biden even in a 50-50 Senate.

If Biden does not assert competence, then they will just prevail on him to resign. No 25th amendment in that case.

If Biden truly is incapacitated as in a coma, and everyone can see it is no ruse, then it would be likely that the 25th amendment would be followed without controversy. But that seems highly unlikely to happen.

The most likely scenarios are that Biden will serve out his term, resign after inauguration, or die in office. I don’t see it being likely that the 25th amendment comes into play.

If Biden is conscious, and understands that his choices are to resign or be humiliated, he will certainly resign. Especially if there is an inducement of a pardon from Harris after the propaganda ministry suddenly discovers the Hunter story.

noaaprogrammer
November 29, 2020 7:49 pm

Between the Thanksgiving and Christmas travel-demands on fuel, I have five, 5-gallon cans for gasoline that I am going to fill up for mowing my lawn next summer before the price of fossil fuels increase under Joe or Camel.

Komerade Cube
Reply to  noaaprogrammer
November 29, 2020 9:26 pm

Don’t forget to add Stabil or the stuff will ruin the carburetor on the mover once it goes stale.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Komerade Cube
November 29, 2020 9:35 pm

Buying ethanol-free gasoline would be best. It’s the 10% ethanol that absorbs water that hurts the small engines.

Beta Blocker
November 29, 2020 7:50 pm

Dr. Tilak K. Doshi says: “There are limits as to what a US Presidency can do within constitutional limits. There is the likelihood that the US Senate will remain Republican and hence provide a check on the more extreme pledges made in the name of ‘net zero’ emissions in the power sector by 2035 and in the entire economy by 2050.”

Dr. Doshi, a newly installed President Biden would in fact have all the authority he needs to go just as far and as fast as he wants to in quickly reducing America’s carbon emissions, if he is willing to risk the political blowback that might occur.

Earlier this month, I posted a comment on WUWT describing what I call the Supply Side Carbon Emission Control Plan (SSCECP).

This plan demonstrates how the task of quickly reducing America’s GHG emissions can be done legally and constitutionally on a fast track schedule using current Executive Branch authorities granted under existing environmental and national security law, and without another word of new legislation being required from Congress.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Beta Blocker
November 29, 2020 8:04 pm

The federal courts will issue injunctions on those plans, including the Supreme Court if needed. Obama’s executive fiat CCP and WOTUS plans were blocked by injunctions from the Supreme Court and lower courts from being implemented pending a full judiciary play-out that Obama would have lost with a Supreme Court controlled by constitutional textualists/originalists.

That is why the Dem-Socialists are desperate to take the Senate in order to pack the Supreme Court with 4 liberal, anything goes, justices. The whole Row v. Wade abortion thing is just a red flag to get their rabid base of feminists revved up at nothing of real consequence. The real prize is rule by EO from the climate scam and other socialist power grabs by the chief executive.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 30, 2020 5:13 am

Yep. The implementation of Obama’s Clean Power Plan was blocked by SCOTUS.

Bite-me can do a lot of damage on his own… But most of the crazy stuff requires legislation.

Chris Hanley
Reply to  Beta Blocker
November 29, 2020 9:16 pm

Quoting from the link:
“If climate change is indeed the existential threat to our existence Joe Biden claims that it is, then he is ethically and morally obligated to act in accordance with his claims and to quickly reduce America’s carbon emissions just as far and as fast as current law allows him to do”.
Exactly right, what transpires when and if he gets the job is a test of Biden’s sincerity.
Of course none of them, Biden, Obama, Harris, Cortez et al. seriously believe their own rhetoric.
A quick rabbit punch to the US economy would be preferable to slow strangulation and when the dust clears everyone could get on with normal life as before.
I’m an outsider but what happens in the US economy is contagious in what was once ‘the free world’.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Beta Blocker
November 29, 2020 9:54 pm

Any US President would have a difficult time simply using executive fiat to shutdown Texas production in the Permian Basin. The Feds have little authority there on leases and environmental regulations.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 30, 2020 5:18 am

Yep. While the President can wreak havoc on Federal leases, he can’t do jack schist on private and state mineral leases. There are even limits on what he can legally do on Federal leases that have already been issued. The law requires that the lessees be allowed to exploit the mineral resources. Permitting will be more difficult and there probably won’t be any new lease sales for a while.

MarkW
November 29, 2020 8:01 pm

“funded by a Bermuda-based shell corporation with direct ties to Putin and Russian oil interests”

It takes a special breed of moron to believe that Putin would prefer Trump over any Democrat.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  MarkW
November 29, 2020 9:37 pm

NYT, LATimes, WaPo, CBS, ABC, CNN and MSNBC have whole casts of that “special breed of moron.”

Brooks Hurd
Reply to  MarkW
November 30, 2020 8:55 am

The low information voters did exactly what Putin wanted by electing Biden. It was more than just a Bermuda based NGO that helped out.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  MarkW
November 30, 2020 10:02 am

The wife of the Mayor of Moscow gave Hunter Biden $3.5 million dollars for some reason. The “Big Guy” might be subject to Russian blackmail just like hs is subject to Chinese blackmail for his dealing with them.

If Biden is president we will have a totally compromised president. Every decision he makes will be looked at through that lens.

Of course, if you control law enforcement and control the election process, what do you have to worry about? You can do anything you wnat, legal or illegal. Like the Obama administration did during their time in office. We may have entered into One Paty Rule already and we just don’t know it yet.

Biden will be our Criminal in Chief.

I hope the election was stolen. Otherwise, if the vote is real, then we have truly entered into the era of the Idiocracy in the United States, and we will join the rest of the Western world in their loss of personal freedoms, as we all head down the delusional, socialist road.

SAMURAI
November 29, 2020 8:25 pm

Biden is just a sock puppet for the far Left who took over the Democrat party during Obama’s failed presidency…

If the GOP loses their Senate majority following the Georgia runoff elections, Leftists will utterly destroy the US economy by: dismantling the oil and gas industry, implementing massive new anti-business regulations, passing huge tax increases, increasing the money supply, increasing the minimum wage to $15/hr, passing anti-business new labor union laws, etc.

Leftists will also destroy our most important checks and balances and our most important institutions by: packing SCOTUS with 6 new Leftist judges, rescind the Senate filibuster, grant amnesty to 20+ million illegal aliens assuring Leftist control of all 3 branches of government for 100 years, pack the senate with 4 new Leftist seats by granting Puerto Rico and DC statehood, pass Medicare-for-all ruining US healthcare, etc.

The fate of our nation now depends on Georgia’s runoff election…

What a mess..

Rory Forbes
Reply to  SAMURAI
November 29, 2020 9:31 pm

In so many words, what you’re saying is: the Democrats are likely proposing to bankrupt the country as quickly as possible.

SAMURAI
Reply to  Rory Forbes
November 30, 2020 6:14 am

Rory-san:

Leftists have been working for this moment in time for over 100 years.

The US is poised on a precipice like Frodo over Mt Doom’s lava flow deciding whether to toss the Constitution and capitalism into the fiery pit and destroy our Republic, or to toss The Ring That Rules Them All into the lava, and save the Republic…

It all depends on whether Georgia gives the GOP senate control in their runoff elections…

It’ll be interesting to see what Americans choose to do….

Rory Forbes
Reply to  SAMURAI
November 30, 2020 10:19 am

As you probably know; there have been three ways to great wealth, as long as humans have had an economy. There is inheritance, hard work, good money management and luck or political opportunism, nepotism and graft. The 1st is out of our hands. The second is favoured by the Republicans and the last has been the intent of the Democrats. In modern times toying with Marxism has been the means of choice.

SAMURAI
Reply to  Rory Forbes
December 1, 2020 6:19 am

Yeah, Leftists just want to burn everything and establish a Marxist state run by clueless elites, and enforced by a barrel of a gun…

That ideological construct has, and never will, work very well—except for the elites running the clown show…

pcman999
November 29, 2020 8:42 pm

In 2019, the U.S. outproduced Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest producer of petroleum. In response, Saudi Arabia launched a self-debilitating and unsuccessful price war in late 2014 in its attempt to starve out the so-called high-cost producers that had powered the US “shale revolution”.

Wow, the Saudis have invented time travel!

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  pcman999
November 29, 2020 9:52 pm

If you click on the hyper link it takes you to Doshi’s 2020 comment of the on-g0ng Suid-Russia price-production war. The ‘2014’ was just a typo I think. Should have been 2020.

Tilak K Doshi
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 29, 2020 10:19 pm

Thank you for clarifying Joel. Actually, the Saudi price was started in late 2014 under the previous Saudi oil minister Naimi since by then, the key source of increased crude oil supply was already the US (where production has started surging since 2008). So that Saudi price was started earlier but intensified in March 2020 until the 2020 April OPEC+ agreement brokered by Trump’s direct talks with the Saudis and Russians.

RockyRoad
November 29, 2020 8:51 pm

Joe Biden has NOT “most likely won the presidency.”

The numbers of electoral college delegates assigned to either candidate so far: ZERO!

You’re letting yourself get sucked into the propaganda the Marxist Media has been pushing relentlessly since polling began months ago, which is lie after lie after lie.

And then you waste our time on some theoretical situation in the Middle East that has zero chance of happening.

No, thank you!

Tilak K Doshi
Reply to  RockyRoad
November 29, 2020 10:23 pm

By “most likely” I mean that Trump’s legal challenges and Sidney Powell’s are long shots in an objective sense. I certainly don’t trust MSM, and by saying “most likely” I do not in any way condone the fraud that seems to have been perpetrated in a number of swing states. So my article is a statement of what could likely happen if Biden indeed gets to be the next prez. Sorry you feel that my article was a waste of your time.

Clyde
November 29, 2020 9:08 pm

Don’t be so sure that Biden will win… that’s what the legacy media wants everyone to believe, so they’re not covering the courtroom developments except those that make Trump look bad.

Trump will most likely win PA, which means it’s a contested election that goes to the Supreme Court. And Trump wins there, too, with all the evidence of voter fraud by the democrats that they’ve got… to include a server from Frankfurt, Germany which was used to flip votes from Trump to Biden, that server now confiscated and the evidence of the aforementioned flipping secured.

The DoD USEUCOM raided a CIA facility in Frankfurt, Germany… a firefight ensued and the DoD prevailed and secured the server. The CIA needs to be disbanded and the swamp creatures sent to Guantanamo.

In PA, their legislature have legal means to contest voter fraud, and given that it’s majority republican, that’s exactly what they’ll do. The prior certification of the vote will be rescinded and the fake ballots thrown out.

And the tactics that the Trump team are using to win PA will be used in the other contested states, as well.

Further, the US Senate has no obligation to confirm a president who has undisclosed ties to foreign powers, and Biden’s got several… so even if Biden prevails in the courts, the US Senate, which has two representatives from each state and therefore a large republican majority, will simply not confirm him, meaning yet again a contested election that goes before the Supreme Court, where Trump will prevail.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Clyde
November 29, 2020 9:15 pm

Clyde,
You do not understand Congress’s role in the Electoral College ballot process to take palce in January.

Izaak Walton
Reply to  Clyde
November 29, 2020 11:31 pm

Clyde,
apart from the complete nonsense about the server in Germany (can you provide any evidence for this?) even if Trump wins in Pennyslvania he will still lose since that PA doesn’t have enough electoral college votes.

AleaJactaEst
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 30, 2020 5:39 am

there you go troll, including expert witnesses; you know, like the expert you’re not.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-11-27-situation-update-nov-27th-dod-vs-cia-covert-war.html

Leonard
November 29, 2020 9:21 pm

Good news and bad news,
First the good news:
“The FBI has reached out to an election integrity researcher for evidence of potential crimes in the 2020 election, according to the researcher, who is also a former Trump campaign official.

The evidence was collected by the Voter Integrity Project (VIP) led by Matt Braynard, former data and strategy director for President Donald Trump’s 2016 election campaign.

“The @FBI has proactively and directly requested from me the VIP findings that indicates illegal ballots,” Braynard said in a Nov. 29 tweet.” (From Epoch Times today)

Second the bad news:
As far as I know, nothing good has come from the FBI since before President Trump won in 2016.
———–
I am still hoping that the massive election fraud will be corrected as much as can be, and that Trump will be
re-elected in 2020.

Chad C. Mulligan
Reply to  Leonard
November 29, 2020 10:25 pm

FBI wants that data so they can better figure out how to quash it.

November 29, 2020 9:55 pm

At this point, I can’t say for sure that any comment or prediction from anyone above is crazy or wrong. Nothing surprises me anymore. Seems to me the bottom line is that none of our institutions, public or private, has much general credibility left, and the all-over-the-place “scientific” views on COVID and how to handle it have only added to the credibility gap between those institutions and the people. When the belief that everything is rigged takes hold among the masses, watch the f out.

cedarhill
November 30, 2020 3:34 am

Reality is nothing will be “scaled” back. It’s full court press time with the Left on all fronts. They’ve had four years of frustration, hatred and planning. Having implemented massive voting fraud, even SCOTUS will, possibly, slow them down but not stop them.

Bruce Cobb
November 30, 2020 5:19 am

The cries of “election fraud” are quite frankly retarded, and reminiscent of the outlandish claims of 9/11 Truthers. TraitorTrump’s post-election behavior has been both a national disgrace, as well as a threat to the democratic process. It is way past time for Trumpies to put on their big-boy pants, despite TraitorTrump’s post-election tantrums. Grow up.

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 30, 2020 8:47 am

The cries of “TraitorTrump” are quite frankly retarded, and full-blown projection of one’s own actions.

Reply to  Writing Observer
November 30, 2020 9:39 am

+42 x 1042

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Writing Observer
November 30, 2020 10:29 am

WritingDumDum; not that a person with a brain the size of a gnat such as yours could understand, but “TraitorTrump” is actually satire, in response to all of the “witty” epithets that Biden receives, but the name does somewhat fit, because Trump’s actions do in fact go against all democratic principles. His is a desperate attempt at holding onto power, by any means necessary, including all manner of lies. His own lawyers tell him that he has no standing. The man is a deranged lunatic.

Clyde
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 30, 2020 6:39 pm

Challenging in court blatant and statistically-obvious voter fraud, backed up with literally hundreds of instances of testimony of same, in addition to a server with recorded evidence of the extent of the fraud goes “against all democratic principles” (your words)? Really.

I suggest you go back and re-learn exactly what those “democratic principles” are, Bruce. Your comment is diametrically opposite to reality. Not that that’s surprising… liberalism is predicated upon flipping causality, inverting reality, so confusing its credulous adherents with propaganda that they can’t tell right from wrong nor good from bad… then exploiting them for the benefit of those elitist liberals proffering the propaganda. They do that to convince gullible rubes to vote against their own best interests, and for the interests of the liberal moneyed elites.

Oh, and turn off the fake news. You show obvious signs of having bought into their propaganda. You are the prototypical brainwashed libtard.

Thinking for yourself is hard work, isn’t it? It’s understandable that you don’t want to do much of it, given your obvious paucity of intellectual capacity. LOL

You’re being lied to. Stop being a gullible sheeple. Learn to think for yourself.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 30, 2020 10:13 am

I understand that you dislike Trump intensely. Could you explain why you feel that way? Did you feel that way before this current election, or is the election process what has you upset?

I’m really curious because you are obviously an intelligent guy and I just don’t see how an intelligent guy can hold such anger at Trump, who as far as I can see, has done things that improve our lives.

I would like your perspective.

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 30, 2020 12:30 pm

Bruce:

Not yet as retarded as the Democrats have been all four years after the 2016 election, claiming Russian hackers sole the election for Trump. Democrats can’t believe real people voted for Trump, so either the country has way more racists than they imagined or the voting was rigged, or both. They spent four years clinging to that delusion, corrupting a fair number of senior executive positions in the process. I suspect the full extent of that corruption will now be buried.

And it wasn’t just the Presidential election in 2016 that was “stolen”; Stacy Abrams lost the Georgia Governor’s race by a narrow margin and has spent the last four years riding the “voter suppression” hobby horse. Many claims were made; none substantiated. What was substantiated is the Abrams campaign urged/instructed supporters to go into polling places as request provisional ballots which were then disallowed because the voters either had already voted early or never came back as required within three days to provide the missing voter ID. In effect, her campaign deliberately created the pretext to later claim “voter suppression”.

If Trump loyalists are retarded, they have plenty of Democrat company.

What we’re seeing now is the downside of a populist president; he has little regard for party loyalty. Not too surprising considering how the mainstream Republican party treated him. Trump loyalists who cling to the delusion of massive vote fraud instead of focusing on the upcoming Senatorial runoff elections in Georgia risk losing the Senate to distinctly left of center Democrats (is there any such thing as a centrist Democrat any more?).

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
December 1, 2020 5:22 am

“Trump loyalists who cling to the delusion of massive vote fraud”

Well, we don’t know if it is a delusion or not at this time. We’ll know one way or another soon. Then will be the time to pronounce it a delusion or not.

I think one reason a lot of Fox News viewers are angry at Fox is because some Fox reporters are not giving Trump the benefit of the doubt.

People who don’t give Trump the benefit of the doubt are assuming too much.

Smart Rock
November 30, 2020 8:13 am

Oh my! A lot of crystal balls are firing on all cylinders today! So many divergent opinions and predictions; perhaps one of them will turn out to have been correct. Or not. Some of them (“Trump will win”) are definitely wishful thinking; slim chance, but that doesn’t mean they might not turn out to have been right in the end.

We are living in interesting times, without a doubt.

PaulH
November 30, 2020 8:15 am

The Middle Eastern countries have been a pain in the neck for decades. I don’t have any sympathy for them now.

ResourceGuy
November 30, 2020 12:15 pm

Don’t count out WWIII coming from the Middle East with or without US ground troops involved.

ResourceGuy
November 30, 2020 12:19 pm

The messy regional wars called WWI could return with much faster events and louder bangs. You can bet the American people will be last to know about the key decisions and facts leading up to those events.

Rich Davis
November 30, 2020 5:54 pm

Maybe we should spend a few electrons on the actual post?

I agree with the author, Dr. Doshi, that most of the policies promised by Biden will benefit foreign oil producers. Ruining domestic oil and gas production through fracking bans on public lands and onerous regulation are obvious, high-probability impacts. This theoretically benefits OPEC+ by upward price pressure due to supply restrictions. Demand will be curtailed a bit by the negative economic impacts, but an increasing percentage of a slightly smaller demand will be supplied by OPEC+. There is of course no real prospect that any Green New Deal policies will significantly reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. In short, foreign producers would see higher prices and enjoy a higher market share. US unemployment goes up, fuel prices go up, trade and budget deficits go up, foreign competitors benefit. What’s not to like if you’re a fan of America Last?

The other high-probability policy change is a return to the Iran nuclear deal. When (not if) that happens, supply will end up higher than today, and mideast producers will see lower prices on at best current demand. We will still see higher unemployment, higher trade and budget deficits, but fuel prices only go up if a carbon tax can be imposed. So this scenario is even better for the Dem-Socs. They have an opening to create a new revenue base while increasing the cost of fuel only modestly (at least at first). Meanwhile friends of Biden (the big guy) in China benefit from lower global market prices on oil. Clearly this is the scenario most to the liking of the Biden swamp critters. It is not a good scenario for the Russians or mideast oil states, or of course for the US. This is what I would therefore expect from the Biden Administration.

%d bloggers like this: