Storm Forecast This Week Could End Some West Coast Wildfires

Last week, computer weather forecast models were hinting at the possibility of a weather system pattern change that could result in significant precipitation for California and the West Coast. While tenuous then, the predictions are firming up now, and it looks like there will be a significant shift in the jet stream, which will put California squarely in the middle of the storm track.

The main impact with this change will be gusty south to west winds, especially today & Monday. There could also be some showers mid to late-week for the northern mountains.

My experience over the last 30 years with predictions of early fall rainfall events has been that they often are over-forecasted, and often fail outright. I hope I’m wrong in this case.

UPDATE:
Originally this post referenced an AccuWeather story that appeared to be current – it wasn’t, it was from 2017 While the weather events reconciled to the present, it was flat wrong in the present context. The mistake is mine, and I regret the error. – Anthony

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2hotel9
September 13, 2020 10:06 am

Will Newsom hold a press conference and declare this caused by manmade Globall Warmining and then demand Fed aid for all the mudslides? Bet he will, he damned well won’t have anything good to say about because he never does.

Bryan A
Reply to  2hotel9
September 13, 2020 4:35 pm

Never let a good disaster go to waste wheel it can be blamed on CC

Liberty Mann
Reply to  2hotel9
September 13, 2020 6:09 pm

Nah. He’ll follow Auntie Nancy and say Mother Earth is angry not so much now!

Alan
September 13, 2020 10:18 am

If these storms put the fires out. I wonder, will the Alarmists credit climate change for making the storms worse and putting the fires out? Or will they just say local weather?
I imagine that they will say, local weather. Can’t have climate change do anything positive.

john harmsworth
Reply to  Alan
September 15, 2020 11:57 am

They will take credit for the rain!

dmacleo
September 13, 2020 10:34 am

accuweather…the syustem that told me every 4″ snowstorm last winter was going to be a killer.
accuNOTweather

ResourceGuy
Reply to  dmacleo
September 14, 2020 8:07 am

+10

markl
September 13, 2020 10:42 am

We could use some of that Pineapple express in the Southern part of the state.

Lil-Mike
Reply to  markl
September 13, 2020 11:44 am

The El Nino meter on the right side of the page tells us that ain’t happening.

rah
September 13, 2020 10:59 am

Hopefully they get some relief out west. But man, it sure isn’t looking good down in the Gulf. It’s starting to look like Sally has the potential to be a real killer.

Almost certain to be a hurricane the question is just how strong. NHC warning cone.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/155249.shtml?cone#contents
Serious storm because of where it is hitting and the anticipated slowing of it’s progression as it nears the coast.
As the storm moves up around the 30N latitude line it will hit steering currents coming out of the west that will slow the storms progress as it gradually pushes it from a WNW track to a NE track. What this means is that those effected will be under the storm for a long time and that those on the coast on the windward side are going to see very high and sustained storm surge.

Because of the configuration of the coast and the multiple water ways in the low lying land it will most likely be those in Eastern Louisiana that will see the worst flooding from storm surge. But everyone under this storm likely to see huge amounts of rainfall with some under the core of the storm possibly seeing 2 feet or more of rainfall in a relatively short period.

Flooding kills more people than wind and so this storm is likely to be very very bad news even if it is only a CAT II when it makes landfall. CAT III will be even worse because of increased storm surge.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  rah
September 13, 2020 12:00 pm

TS Sally will likely hit Louisiana as weak Cat1, or it could also just fall apart completely like Marco did in late August. Sally right now is very disorganized. No organized central circulation of convective towers, an eye wall IOW currently exists in Sally (Sunday noon PDT).
seeee: https://api.weather.com/v2/maps/dynamic?apiKey=6532d6454b8aa370768e63d6ba5a832e&geocode=28.0%2C-85.0&lod=6&product=thermalSat&h=600&w=800&map=satellite

My Tropical Cyclone – geomagnetic Ap spike hypothesis says TS Sally will not do much in the way of strengthening unless an Ap geomagnetic spike happens before its landfall. Further the hypothesis predicts that even though we are currently in the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season, the geomagnetic conditions have grown quiet. Without geomagnetic Ap spike, none of the current Tropical systems will undergo any rapid intensification events.

And this also go for the low pressure spinning in off the Pacific Northwest coast. It will not strengthen without geomagnetic storm conditions.

To monitor the geomagnetic conditions, go here:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices

rbabcock
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
September 13, 2020 1:32 pm

I wasn’t introduced to the electric/magnetic universe until the last year or so. After reading quite a few papers, etc., the correlation/causation (causation/correlation) makes a huge amount of sense and I find it hard not to believe how much it influences weather and climate.

Geomagnetic conditions will become an integral part of forecasting storm formation and intensity within the next few years (it should be already).

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  rbabcock
September 13, 2020 2:30 pm

I have no idea what the linkage mechanism(s) is/are behind the general hypothesis of geomagnetic storms measured as Ap spikes resulting in favorable conditions for cyclonic strenthening (rapid intensifications, etc). I have some mechanistic hypotheses though, at least 3 mechanistic linkage hypotheses. None of those 3 are mutually exclusive of the others as to how a cyclonic low-pressure with convection (tropical cyclones and meso-scale cyclones) could be strengthened by geomagnetic disturbances. All 3 or none could be the mechanism.

One is magnetic (Lorenz force) related in the Z direction.
One is incoming solar electrons as nucleators to enhance condensation-precipitation nucelation processes.
And another is stratospheric-tropopause interface lowering in altitude.

As for the electric universe thing, I’m firmly agnostic on that.

Rah
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
September 14, 2020 2:03 pm

According to the NHC at 16:50 eastern, Sally has 100 mph sustained winds. Forecasted to strengthen. Probably a solid Cat II at landfall.

So I guess the geomagnetic spike or your interpretation of it needs a bit of adjustment.

2hotel9
Reply to  Rah
September 15, 2020 6:28 am

As of 05:46 EDT Sally is clocking sustained winds of 86 mph, gusts 103, moving NW at 2 mph. That slow motion is really putting the whammy on FLA panhandle, Redneck Riviera and MS/eastern LA coasts.

rah
Reply to  2hotel9
September 15, 2020 10:36 am

At 10:AM Still a solid CAT 1 and not ashore yet. Movement now at least is picking up a little as it makes the turn. Last night it was moving only 2 mph and now is going 9 mph.

NHC calling for “historic flooding from western FL panhandle to SE MS ”
comment image

2hotel9
Reply to  rah
September 16, 2020 6:59 am

Sally finally managed to stumble ashore, now the heavy rain bands are pounding east and north of landfall point. Storm surge is still working inshore as far over as Gulfport/Pascagoula sector. Got two brothers down there with the Redneck Navy.

Max Dupilka
September 13, 2020 10:59 am

This is the product from the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS).

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/produits_e.html

Choose the precipitation amount (daily or total) and the time period.

It looks promising over the next 2 weeks for Washington and Oregon, but dry for California.

Bruce Cobb
September 13, 2020 11:08 am

When life gives you pineapple expresses, make pina coladas.

Michael S. Kelly
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
September 13, 2020 6:23 pm

When life gives you melons, you’re probably dyslexic.

DMacKenzie
September 13, 2020 11:12 am

Arsonists hate wet weather.
Without arson, likely around 1/4 the fires…..and the remaining ones would have 4 times the men and equipment to put them out.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  DMacKenzie
September 13, 2020 12:19 pm

Antifa hates wet weather. Dampens their set fires both in Portland and on the back country side roads.

Ron Long
September 13, 2020 11:13 am

My twin brother lives in Eugene, Oregon, downwind from the Mckenzie River fire, and he says the local officials says the easterly winds have died down, but the fires can’t be put out, they will smolder in the middle and advance slowly at the margins until rain and/or snow puts them out. Let’s hope the rain comes soon, at least before another east wind event.

Carbon Bigfoot
September 13, 2020 11:26 am

Just in time for the run–off and devastating mud slides. Hope Algore’s Malibu abode slides into the Pacific.

Scissor
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot
September 13, 2020 11:38 am

Gore has a home in Malibu? I’m skeptical.

czechlist
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot
September 13, 2020 2:01 pm

I just hope the Colusa County,CA fires find their way to Moonbeam’s retirement ranch but somehow spare everyone else. Shadenfruede

philincalifornia
Reply to  czechlist
September 13, 2020 4:21 pm

He did sign some forest fire management bills on his way out, which I guess in other circumstances would be the same as saying “Guilty Your Honor”.

https://www.rcrcnet.org/governor-brown-signs-landmark-forest-health-bill

No wonder smiley boy Newsom is blaming it as hard as he can on carbon dioxide.

Earthling2
September 13, 2020 11:28 am

Yes, it might arrest these fires , but the rain will just make the rest of the grass, shrubs and trees keep growing and when it dries out again, as it will inevitably will, it will just be more fuel for the future fires. So far, they haven’t figured out that CO2 also causes all plant life to grow better, hence more fuel. We won’t be able to win, because the CO2 causes the floods, droughts, plant growth, lightning and then fires, which also causes people to become arsonists. Just restart much of the logging industry again, and much of the problem will be taken care of while business and people make a profit removing the ‘fuel’ and get the laws changed to allow for coolish burns when conditions exist to have safe controlled burns. Especially around our communities…reduce the fuel loads. Even the BBC news made this comment on one of their news broadcasts last night, and inadvertently questioned if this was all due to climate change, especially with some of the fires that were outright arson. Most of this is basic common sense, and then Gavin Newsom tries to just blame it ALL on climate change due to CO2. As if California never had fires before.

Gordon A. Dressler
September 13, 2020 12:14 pm

In California, flooding from heavy rains inevitably follows wildfires.

California is not out of the news yet . . . maybe will be by February (excluding COVID-19, that is).

dmacleo
September 13, 2020 12:23 pm

looks like some now saying Sally will stall and just dump a LOT of rain.
gonna be rough down there.

d
September 13, 2020 12:58 pm

Now, on to the mudslides! Since climate fraud causes weather, natural and man-made disasters, let’s get out there first and say that the next phase of the recurrent historic cycle is also caused by CO2.

john
September 13, 2020 1:51 pm
Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  john
September 13, 2020 2:45 pm

Dorothy just needs to throw a bucket of water on her like she did Nancy’s sister.

John F Hultquist
September 13, 2020 1:59 pm

GOES-West just before 2PM west-coast time (2000 UTC) shows a thinning of the smoke over central Washington State. All around this area folks are not so lucky. The thinning shows on the 1930 UTC image, formed, but not over central.
The only immediate effect of this is that we now have shadows. I’ll be watching for some blue sky.
Because of our lee-side location, rain is unlikely (20% chance in the forecast area).
The smoke is sufficiently thick that the temperature is depressed significantly.

Rud Istvan
September 13, 2020 5:02 pm

John, wishing you well.
On my former mostly originally prairie savanna SW Wisconsin dairy farm, and on my neighbors places, I helped over many years set many controlled burns of our pastures. We wait for the right late spring low wind conditions (pastures dry, forest understory still wet from snowmelt), brush hog the pasture burn perimeters so the burn doesn’t get into now un-natural forest tracts, and let her rip. I had natural savannah burr oaks in my pastures that were 6 plus foot diameter, 250 years old, huge spreading branches still throwing off acorns, and never harmed by our controlled burns (mostly done now to control noxious invasive species like garlic mustard and multiflora rose and restore deep rooted prairie graces ideally suited to late summer pasture conditions.

All the old burr oaks in what was savannah but became since 1880 my three woodlots Totaling >100 acres died on my watch despite selective hardwood logging every ten or so years. Rotted hollow cores and stubbed branches were outcompeted by red, black, and white oak, all of which grow much taller and straighter rather than spreading Horizontally like burr oak. None are former savannah trees. Nature is a harsh taskmaster. Evolutionary biology just is.

Kurt
September 13, 2020 8:23 pm

In 2017 that jet stream did put out fires. The Eagle Creek fire that started on Labor Day weekend (because some group of teenagers were setting off fireworks on a trail) was running through the Columbia River Gorge, and there were a number of other fires in the Oregon Cascades (I think the Whitewater fire by Mt. Jefferson and a few others) I recall that the storm system dumped about 6 inches of rain in maybe 2-3 days. It didn’t completely put out the fire, but close enough that the evacuations were lifted and after that the spread was slow and in the direction of uninhabited areas.

tom0mason
September 13, 2020 8:58 pm

Earth nullschool appears to show a change in the weather should happen soon …
https://earth.nullschool.net#2020/09/18/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-94.21,35.85,802

September 18, a GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service forecast graphical projection.

Jeff Alberts
September 14, 2020 8:41 am

I hope something comes through. Out here in Whidbey Island, we’ve been socked in with smoke/haze, and a dead calm for three days. Not even enough breeze to make a leaf move.

If we were relying on wind and solar right now, we’d be SOL.

Poems of Our Climate
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
September 14, 2020 9:40 am

You’re saying the Marxists are setting things up so we have a dark sky and unusable winds, rendering their favored technologies useless.

zack
September 15, 2020 11:04 pm

…”My experience over the last 30 years with predictions of early fall rainfall events has been that they often are over-forecasted, and often fail outright. I hope I’m wrong in this case.”

Anthony, It was a prescient prediction even if based on mistaken data, and somehow you nailed it regardless.

I watched all last week as bay area predictions of the air finally clearing was, with each new day, just a day or two away, and the promise of cleansing rain for the NW Now a week later, it still hasn’t happened and the forecast remains the same. Just wait and see, a couple days from now…

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