Guest essay by Eric Worrall
From the “we have one US Presidential cycle to save the world” department.
New climate predictions assess global temperatures in coming five years
8 July 2020
Geneva, 9 July 2020 – The annual mean global temperature is likely to be at least 1° Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) in each of the coming five years (2020-2024) and there is a 20% chance that it will exceed 1.5°C in at least one year, according to new climate predictions issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, led by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, provides a climate outlook for the next five years, updated annually. It harnesses the expertise of internationally acclaimed climate scientists and the best computer models from leading climate centres around the world to produce actionable information for decision-makers.
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“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – the enormous challenge ahead in meeting the Paris Agreement on Climate Change target of keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
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Read more: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/new-climate-predictions-assess-global-temperatures-coming-five-years
The executive summary of the study;
Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update
Target years: 2020 and 2020-2024
Executive Summary
This update presents a summary of annual to decadal predictions from WMO designated Global Producing Centres and non-designated contributing centres for the period 2020-2024. Latest predictions suggest that:
- Annual global temperature is likely to be at least 1°C warmer than preindustrial levels (defined as the 1850-1900 average) in each of the coming 5 years and is very likely to be within the range 0.91 – 1.59°C
- It is unlikely (~20% chance) that one of the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels, but the chance is increasing with time
- It is likely (~70% chance) that one or more months during the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels
- It is very unlikely (~3%) that the 5 year mean temperature for 2020-2024 will be 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels
- In 2020, large land areas in the Northern Hemisphere are likely to be over 0.8°C warmer than the recent past (defined as the 1981-2010 average)
- In 2020, the Arctic is likely to have warmed by more than twice as much as the global mean
- The smallest temperature change is expected in the tropics and in the mid-latitudes of theSouthern Hemisphere
- In 2020, many parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia are likely to be dryer than the recent past
- Over 2020-2024, almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans are likely to be warmer than the recent past
- Over 2020-2024, high latitude regions and the Sahel are likely to be wetter than the recent past whereas northern and eastern parts of South America are likely to be dryer
- Over 2020-2024, sea-level pressure anomalies suggest that the northern North Atlantic region could have stronger westerly winds leading to more storms in western Europe
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Read more: https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/WMO_GADCU_2019.pdf
I guess it is time to ditch all those floating European offshore wind turbine plans, if storms in Western Europe are about to get worse.
But on a serious note, it would actually be great if every year for the next four years is 1.5C above pre-industrial; climate scientists would then have the difficult task of explaining why the end of the world was indistinguishable from business as usual.
Sadly I doubt this hope will be realised, unless climate record keepers rewrite history again.
The future is certain; it is only the past that is unpredictable – old Soviet joke.
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Ditched the WHO, time to do same with WMO.
I would still like to know what the origins of this 1.5 deg. C temperature threshold is — and the 2.0 deg. C temperature threshold. Where did they come from? Where is the peer-reviewed scientific study or literature that made these temperature threshold claims? What data are they based on? What observations? Who did the study or studies?
Did those studies conclude that the Medieval Warm Period and Roman Warm Period were cooler than today? Did they get to 1.5 deg. C warmer than pre-industrial times back then? I seriously would like to know if anyone out there has answers to these questions. I appreciate any replies that answers them. It would also be nice if a future WUWT post attempted to answer them.
It wasn’t a study, from Schelllnhuber, I think, but a guide board, or better, crash barrier.
From a ‘Der Spiegel’ Article,
But this is scientific nonsense. “Two degrees is not a magical limit — it’s clearly a political goal,” says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). “The world will not come to an end right away in the event of stronger warming, nor are we definitely saved if warming is not as significant. The reality, of course, is much more complicated.”
Schellnhuber ought to know. He is the father of the two-degree target.
“Yes, I plead guilty,” he says, smiling. The idea didn’t hurt his career. In fact, it made him Germany’s most influential climatologist. Schellnhuber, a theoretical physicist, became Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief scientific adviser — a position any researcher would envy.
“A Superstorm for Global Warming Research“
Spiegel Online
Von Marco Evers, Olaf Stampf und Gerald Traufetter
01.04.2010, 17.00 Uhr
“Yes, I plead guilty,” he says, smiling. The idea didn’t hurt his career.'”
So it sounds as though there was never any science behind the temperature threshold numbers. Just an idea from one man — Schellnhuber. He pled guilty. That’s all I need to know.
Schellenhuber is also the Wormtongue who corrupted the Catholic Church.
He epitomizes the climate hypester strategy of using deception and manipulation.
Let’s see . . . the yearly-average temperature difference between Earth’s northern hemisphere (avg = 15.2 C) and southern hemisphere (13.3 C) is about 1.9 C (ref: http://profhorn.aos.wisc.edu/wxwise/AckermanKnox/chap14/climate_spatial_scales.html ). It does not appear that there has been a panic and mass migration of people from above the equator to below the equator based on it being “too hot” in the NH.
Based on this simple fact, do humans really no to worry about a keeping the global climate from having a 1.5 C temperature increase over the next 80 years? Not that humans are in any way capable of controlling global temperatures to target values.
Uhhh . . . first sentence of my last paragraph: “need”, not “no”
Mea culpa.
Actually, we *could* lower temperatures – the question is should we. Mankind is perfectly capable of adding aerosols or particulate matter in the atmosphere (or the particulate even in space) blocking some percent of the sunlight reaching Earth.
This would likely lead to the greatest man-made disaster ever, so I hope the crazy-clowns of climate change never achieve enough power to try to do this.
RoT, I was careful to state “controlling global temperatures to target values”. So, how many megatons of particulates—and of what composition and particulate size distribution—to lower global LST by, say, 1.5 ± 0.5 C?
Furthermore, there is the law of unintended consequences: to what degree might adding the above-estimated quantity of aerosols or particulate matter into Earth’s atmosphere change global rainfall patterns, global air circulation patters, global ocean circulation patters, the current “greening” of Earth, ocean chemistry, ocean life biology, the albedo of snow and ice, etc, etc. Will the complex interactions and feedback loops support global cooling, or actually result in just the opposite effect? And how long will such forced-blocking of sunlight persist? . . . after all, haven’t you heard that winter (aka another LIA) is coming to Earth? . . . the Sun is currently warning us of such. 🙂
I’m in complete agreement with you that any human attempt to modify Earth’s climate over centuries, let alone over a decade or less, is likely to result in the greatest man-made disaster ever.
Temperatures, if reported accurately, would lowered immediately.
Good to see them post these predictions. Imo, they are in for a real surprise as the years pass. The next La Nina will develop when sunspots return later on this year. It should be a prolonged and deep La Nina which will last around 2.5 years. Global temps should fall below the zero trend line as seen on the satellite graphs similar to what happened in 2008/09 and in 2010, and might fall even lower to the level of the mid 1980s at -0.5C.
Exactly, I love they actually made this prediction. The AU BoM is predicting a 50% chance that La Nina forms by November as the IOD also flips. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
A PDO flip would put the nail into climate madness.
Why are we not taking about the made up BS? Once you show there is no real scientific basis for the 2 degree limit their argument falls apart. Come on man really?
Why are we not taking about the made up BS? Once you show there is no real scientific basis for the 2 degree limit their argument falls apart. Come on man really?
Why are we not taking about the made up BS? Once you show there is no real scientific basis Why are we not taking about the made up BS? Once you show there is no real scientific basis for the 2 degree limit their argument falls apart. Come on man really? for the 2 degree limit their argument falls apart. Come on man really?
WMO should merge with WHO.
Five warm or cold years is not climate change in any scientific or historical sense. Five years is weather.