Covid-19, Floods and Bank Runs: China Braces As Heavy Rainfall Stresses Water Management Infrastructure

Shanghai Floods 2007
Shanghai Floods 2007. lauraelizabeth / CC BY

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

h/t JoNova; A torrential downpour which has lasted over a month is testing China’s vast river flood control infrastructure, and threatening residents of Hubei Province, whose capital is Wuhan.

China’s flood defence network put to the test as it braces for more storms

Almost 20 million people living along the Yangtze River have been affected since late May, with at least 121 killed or missing

Engineer says if severe flooding, torrential rain persist it’s unclear how effective the dams will be

Echo Xie
Published: 10:17pm, 6 Jul, 2020

China’s huge flood defence network in the south of the country is being put to the test by persistent heavy rainfall across the Yangtze River region.

Torrential rain that began in late May has so far affected almost 20 million people in provinces along the river, with at least 121 killed or missing in severe floods, state media reported.

Meteorological bureaus have warned heavy downpours will continue to affect large areas of the country – from Chongqing in the southwest to Shanghai on the east coast – in the coming five days. Wuhan, the initial epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic, was battered by heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over the weekend and on Monday, prompting authorities to raise the emergency flood response to the second highest level of a four-tier warning system, state news agency Xinhua reported.

Fan Xiao, chief engineer at the Sichuan Geology and Mineral Bureau in Chengdu, said the effectiveness of the flood defence network depended on individual dams and the severity of the rainfall.

“If there is severe flooding with persistent torrential rain, like what happened in 1998, it would be difficult to say how effective the dams will be,” he said, referring to devastating floods that killed more than 2,000 people. “The dams have operated well but we haven’t had any real tests so far.”

Read more: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3092060/chinas-flood-defence-network-put-test-it-braces-more-storms

The forced release of water from the nation’s dams is having a severe impact in some regions.

China Flooding: Heaviest Rains in Decades Continues, 20 Million People Affected

By Victoria Sinla
Jul 08, 2020 09:00 AM EDT

The Ministry of Water Resources elevated its emergency response for flood control from Level Four to Level 3 on July 4, Monday as what is now dubbed as the heaviest rains in decades continues. Level One is considered the highest level of response. 

An estimated 20 million people are now affected by the heavy rains and severe flooding, and direct economic losses now amount to at least £4.7bn. 

Several areas of Hubei, where the capital city of Wuhan is located is heavily flooded. Helen Hai, a resident of Changyang county in Wuhan, Hubei said that because of the heavy and fast downpour, using windshield wipers is futile. Adding to her difficulty is driving past landslides and rocks falling from the mountainside. 

According to Chinese hydrologist Wang Weiluo, the danger of the dams in rivers across southern and southwestern China where flooding is worst is being concealed by the Chinese officials. He said officials never disclose how a disaster is made and how it happens.

“Most people think floods are caused by extreme weather but it is mainly caused by the discharge of reservoirs and the result of flood control works,” he said.

Hai said that the government downplaying the crisis does not come as a surprise for her. She said it has happened before, not just with this flooding crisis. She admits it is hard to judge the government data but she has come to expect that the real situation is much worst. 

Read more: https://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/44046/20200708/china-flooding-heaviest-rains-decades-20-million-affected.htm

Some villagers are being evacuated.

China Focus: Relocation protects public from floods 

Source: Xinhua| 2020-07-09 14:11:02|Editor: huaxia

HEFEI/CHANGSHA/WUHAN, July 9 (Xinhua) — Suffering from rain-triggered mountain torrents twice in 24 hours, residents in Biyun Village in east China’s Anhui Province said they had never experienced such downpours before.

“It’s getting bigger every time, and parts of the village were inundated by knee-deep floodwater,” said 54-year-old Xia Minghua, Party secretary of Biyun, in the city of Xuancheng.

The village was battered respectively by two torrential floods at 5 a.m. and 8 p.m. on Monday and a total of five bouts of heavy rains in Xuancheng since it entered the flood season this year had forced the evacuation of 22,107 people as of Tuesday.

“Before the flash floods, local authorities had arranged for the relocation of a dozen villagers living in lowlands, riverbanks and other places vulnerable to floods,” said Fang Guanghu, a resident of Biyun.

“We are now temporarily living in a conference room in our village, provided with meals, television, mosquito-repellent incense and quilts, all free of charge,” Fang added.

Read more: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-07/09/c_139199939.htm

To add to China’s other woes, at least one Chinese province has been suffering bank runs. Hebei (not Hubei) Province has implemented customer transaction limits, though it is unclear whether or how the timing of the new rule is related to other problems.

China province orders new checks on big cash transactions after bank runs

Karen Yeung karen.yeung@scmp.com
South China Morning Post
July 5, 2020

China has launched a pilot programme in the northern province of Hebei requiring the public to apply for approval if they plan to make large cash deposits or withdrawals at commercial banks.

The regulation comes after a series of bank runs in the past year at debt-laden small lenders and as an unprecedented pandemic-related economic contraction starts to take a toll.

From July 1, residents in the province will need to provide information about the source of deposits or the purpose of withdrawals for transactions over 100,000 yuan (US$14,162) for individuals, and 500,000 yuan for corporations, the state-backed China Securities Journal reported last week.

Applicants will have to give one day’s notice to the bank to make a withdrawal of this size or larger, and gain the branch’s approval of the registration information, the report said.

The pilot programme will be expanded to Zhejiang province in the east and the city of Shenzhen in Guangdong province from October 1, affecting individual account transactions of more than 300,000 yuan and 200,000 yuan, respectively.

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-province-orders-checks-big-093000157.html

Not a good year for China.

Update (EW): In 2014 China’s Anti-corruption watchdog heavily criticised the state firm which constructed the Three Gorges Dam, which straddles the Yangtse River. The Three Gorges Dam, one of the largest dams in the world, is bearing the brunt of the extreme rainfall China is currently experiencing. Around 220 million people live downriver of the Three Gorges Dam in the Yangtse River Delta.

141 thoughts on “Covid-19, Floods and Bank Runs: China Braces As Heavy Rainfall Stresses Water Management Infrastructure

  1. Best thing for China and the world would be for the genocidal, mass murderous CPC to lose the Mandate of Heaven.

  2. I recall when construction of the controversial Three Gorges Dam raised world copper prices, leading to wire rustling in the US.

    Downstream on the Yangtze from Wuhan lie Nanjing and Shanghai.

    • Red China and the CPC had best be careful with its threats against everyone, especially the USA, since a half dozen GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB’s) on the Three Gorges river locks would see that reservoir drain slowly enough that the good citizens of China could get out of the way, but the dam would be out of commission for long enough to be rid of the Red China Fascists. Nobody likes an absolute dictator, not even in a dictatorial state.

      Comrade Xi is feared, and not respected, and that will be his downfall soon enough. A lot of Chinese Nationals I have talked to in my global travels tell me he is hated by a lot of people, including in the Party itself, but everyone is too terrified to say anything. That will change fairly soon, as he has brought shame upon China. He is finished in the scheme of things. But it will take the reelection of President Trump to facilitate this a lot faster, as Senile Creepy Joe and his kid has already been bought and paid for by the CPC.

      The biggest mistake of the Korea conflict was on April 11, 1951 when President Harry S. Truman fired Gen. Douglas MacArthur as the commander of U.S. forces battling North Korean and communist Chinese forces on the Korean peninsula and replaced him and fought a war of attrition that has led to all this. If you are to fight a war, fight it to win, and use whatever resources you have at your disposal. It isn’t too late to settle that up properly, before Nov 3 this fall. And take Rocket Boy for a ride too. Time for good riddance of these dictatorial virus’ that are a plague to the good Earth.

          • I do believe the no-one is not at war with China. In any case, the bouncing bomb did cause damage to the industrial complexes of the German war machine however, the effect didn’t last that long. It didn’t, as hoped, change the direction of the was at that stage.

        • That’s why I said the river locks and not the dam itself. It would make the dam and river inoperable, while the river would flood moderately and civilians downstream could get out of the way. The main dam wouldn’t be harmed and the locks could be re-built again. But the reservoir would drain over several weeks/months. While they are at, don’t forget to take out the sub stations.

          My older English professor emeritus brother tried to use that same argument against my father, who trained some of the original Dam Busters in the British Commonwealth Air Training Plan as one of the senior flight instructors, who took out the dams in Germany. My Phd useless brother tried to accuse my father of War Crimes for that, including the fire bombing of Dresden and other German cities. That was the day my Father and I gave up on my ‘highly educated’ brother, who is part responsible for all this cultural Marxism. It all starts in the English departments. He is no brother to me anymore and I won’t be going to his funeral.

          The river might flood anyway if the rain don’t quit and they have to open more spillways. Anyway, it’s not like these sicko’s in the CPC don’t use Crimes Against Humanity each and every day. In fact, just today, the Trump administration has sanctioned four Chinese Communist Party officials and the Xinjiang Public Security Bureau for human rights abuses against at least 1,000,000 Uighur Muslims and other ethnic minorities in Xinjiang. War is a dirty business as you are fully aware, and when push comes to shove, all is fair in love and war. But yes, we don’t want to punish the good people of China, just take out their infrastructure when the war starts. Which would be much better sooner than later, when Red China can commit vast crimes against humanity as well.

          https://www.axios.com/treasury-sanctions-xinjiang-uighur-magnitsky-5a76bf02-bff4-4546-a1d0-6e04202df4e8.html

          • I hear China didn’t even bother to tell their own citizens when they started to release floodwaters to alleviate possible collapse of Three Gorges!

            Some “citizens” drowned; others were electrocuted because electricity wasn’t shut off so people in waist-deep water weren’t aware of the danger!

            What is wrong with their government?

            Well, pretty much everything!

        • Can you defend Communist China’s brutal hegemonious history as anything other than Crimes Against Humanity–their own as much as everbody else they encounter?

          My contacts say China is gearing for war, but what a peculiar notion: Nations typically wage war for conquest and plunder; two examples are Germany and Japan back in WWII.

          China currently owes its economic power to the fact that they export 80 to 90% of everything they manufacture. How would China force the rest of the world to keep buying their junk considering the deceptively dangerous behavior they’ve demonstrated the past six months or more? Nobody likes them; nobody trusts them anymore!

          Could China hold a gun to customer’s heads and scream “Buy!… or I shoot!”. What a silly war that would be!

          China is in trouble whether they know it or not. Some experts say China won’t be an economic powerhouse in less than three years. They will be lucky to feed their people! Even their clouds can’t stop crying!

          • I wonder if the CCP is going to be finished by a financial crisis. China’s economy is essentially a Ponzi scheme kept afloat by huge, and I mean huge overinvestment in the construction of apartments and office blocks. In Changzhou, where I lived for a number of years, there are dozens of apartment buildings, all completely empty. And they are still building more! The construction companies are enormously indebted to the banks, which are shaky and under-capitalized. The dominoes will fall one day.

          • Even without any embargoes of Chinese goods, Chinese exports are going to plummet as the world sinks into recession thanks in part to the Chinese trying to cover up Chicom-19

      • If we ignore discussions about ethics, and if we ignore discussions about the actual practical effect of a GBU-43/B on the targets described, we can probably safely progress to discussions about exactly HOW one delivers a GBU-43/B into the middle of China.

        GBU-43/Bs are delivered by pushing them out the back of a C130.

        Just as a casual muse I would suggest that if you were in an operational position to fly multiple C130 aircraft across China and back then you would not remotely be in a need to bomb any dams.

        • Whats all this talk about ethics? Starting to sound like my Marxist brother, who started all this nonsense with calling the Allied Forces of WW2 war criminals 40 years ago for bombing the dams on the Ruhr River in Germany.

          I said just take out the locks at the Three Gorges Dam. Damage the lock gates so they can’t use the river or the turbines when the head pond drops below the efficiency of the turbines. It can all be fixed up again pronto, but take 4-5 years to fill the reservoir back up. It would be long duration flood that the local folk could escape from since the narrow locks would become a narrow spillway but couldn’t be shut off very easily until the reservoir dropped. It’s on the plan of targets.

          Not that a B2 Stealth Bomber couldn’t carry the smaller MOAB, but The ‘Mother of all bombs’ is a runt compared with the (FOAB) Father of All Bombs that the B2 does carry. It is deadlier than the MOAB by a long shot, and not an air blast bomb. The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) would probably be massive overreach to take out the lock gates and maybe do more damage than we would like since we don’t want to destroy the dam. But it could be be delivered by Stealth. The only reason the MOAB is pushed out a C-130 is that there was no need to go real high tech, since it was designed for shock and awe and to take out hostile forces who can’t even shoot down a lumbering C-130. And why risk a B2 for something like that. The MOAB had the goal of destroying tunnel complexes used by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, who barely had grenade launchers, where it was used first in 2017, or in Afghanistan. The MOAB, while big, is basically for pest control. The MOP is for more serious business and delivered by the stealthy B2. But the MOAB can also be delivered by the B2 if required.

          https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article144675099.html

        • B-2 and B-1 could deliver two MOABs, and B-52 three. That C-130s were used doesn’t mean that Herkys are the only possible delivery platform.

        • But I agree that after extablishing air supremacy by wiping out the PLAAF and PLA air defenses, then no need to breach the Three Gorges Dam.

          • A hypothetical hot war with nuclear armed China is really quite terrifying.

            WWII ended with nuclear power. How would this end, how would this be fought?

          • Only one power had the Bomb in 1945. Now several nations do. Deterrence has worked for a lifetime now. The Communist regime would be suicidal to nuke the US or even India. China is more vulnerable than the US. It has around 60 ICBMs capable of hitting North America. Some are MIRVed, but still inaccurate, despite CPC spies having stolen our nuke and rocketry designs, plus Clinton’s selling them satellite tech for campaign cash.

            Some of their single warheads are 3.3 to 5 megatons, to make up for inaccuracy. But the US has far more missiles capable of hitting Chinese targets, to include the leadership personally. Chinese cities are densely populated and poorly built.

            China does have an estimated 3000 miles of underground tunnels in which to hide its ballistic missiles and party bosses, but lots of other high value military and political targets are available.

            We didn’t go nuclear in the Korean or Vietnam Wars, which fact the CPC recognizes. IMO they’d be reluctant to attack us with nukes, risking vast destruction in retaliation. Same goes for India, which is working on sub-launched missiles.

          • Two significant issues:

            – is the US army pro-chain of command?
            – is it even pro-US?
            – is it capable of … anything?

            I don’t see so many successes lately. And there seems to be quite a lot of demoralization and extreme politisation at the high level (like Lt.Col.).

            Same for:

            – CIA (loss of cyber weapons)
            – NSA (loss of cyber weapons)
            – FBI (why do nearly all former FBI agents on Twitter sound like Chris Hayes?)

            Bonus Q: Is the FBI even salvageable?

    • “Downstream on the Yangtze from Wuhan lie Nanjing and Shanghai.”

      Is Shanghai at risk of flooding? Tesla’s factory is near the banks of a river there, presumably the Yangtze.

    • About four hundred million people live downstream from the giant dam, but not all would be in danger from a breach.

  3. Because of Red China and their CPC totalitarian regime, “a hard rain is gonna fall” all over the good Earth, and China is going to be flooded with bad omens to come. This is just the beginning of troubles for the CPC and Comrade Xi, whose days are numbered, and he will be ousted from power by his own countrymen. Red China is our real enemy, and it is time we respond with a global coalition against them. Bring back our supply lines, and make them pay in Silver for anything they want to purchase from us, up front.

    • Yes, the discovery that 80 tonnes of gold bars was actually gold-plated copper has destroyed the reputation of China’s currency!

      And that apparently occurred in Wuhan, of all places!

  4. An increase in cloud cover, rain, and cooling temperatures. This is the outlook for a long term solar activity slump. Also future upticks in the “Dunsel Index Score” of Solar Energy.

    • Wuhan give the world Covid, six months later the floods come. Sounds almost Biblical …

      • funny you should say that;-)
        have they hit or passed the 40days n nights bit yet?

        on the annoying china side of above convo
        well letting them build n then create mil bunkers on the atolls given free reign by ohbummer and everyone else
        is going to be the bite on the butt if anyone thinks they can do some clearing i think.
        and Xi whatsisface is a lifetime roleplayer now so how would anyone inc his own mob get the mongrel out?
        novichok? or whatever it was purported to be;-)

  5. My Mandate of Heaven comment seems to be lost in cyberspace. Maybe under moderation for use of “gen0cide” and “m@rder0us”. Anyway. here’s hoping that the regime has lost its mandate.

    • John, we should be careful what we wish for.

      China is the only one of the Big Three monstrously murderous totalitarian regimes of the 20th century to survive almost unchanged into the 21st. No total defeat, and de-nazification. No glasnost, and collapse. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) killed more of it’s own people taking and holding power than the other two killed combined, and it has never looked back.

      If you wish for the CCP to fail, (and my prayer is that they do), know that The West will have near zero control over HOW that happens. At the end Adolf Hitler wanted Germany and it’s people to literally be consumed in the fire … because in his mind they had betrayed him, and been unworthy of him. He meant it. He knew “consuming fires” on a first hand directive basis. Only his insane denial of how close the military collapse and occupation was, and his lacking of the tools, prevented him from attempting to initiate it on his own people.

      The CPSU of the Soviet Union had (at least for us) wonder of wonders for me … a soft landing.

      China has around 320 nuclear weapons. What will the CPC do to avoid their regime’s destruction ? Can the CPC separate the survival of the CPC, from the survival of the Han people ? Will the PLA follow the CPC’s edicts in an existential crisis ?

      • China has changed dynasties many times before. The last imperial (Manchu) dynasty kept itself in power against the Taiping Rebellion in a war which carried off some 20 million, 1850-64.

        Nukes might make a difference, but even if the CPC in vengeane went full H!tler and used 300 nukes on its largest cities, the country would still have about a billion people. China’s urban population is around 800 million out of 1.4 billion. A reasonable estimate in such a suic!dal, gen0cidal attack would be 50% fatalities, ie ~400 million.

        But I’d be surprised if the regime went gen0cidal on its Han majority. Better just to buy the ChiCom leadership off. Plata o plomo.

        • John says :
          Nukes might make a difference, but even if the CPC in vengeane went full H!tler and used 300 nukes on its largest cities, the country would still have about a billion people.

          ——————————
          Oh I didn’t mean it would nuke it’s own people strategically though I have no doubt they’d do it tactically.

          I meant that regimes in power, but falling out of power will often use war against an “outsider” to try to take the people’s eyes off the regimes internal failures.

          • Does the CPC use them all against the US, or also the RoC, RoK, Japan, Vietnam and India? Maybe the Russian Far East, too, which used to belong to the Empire of China, and which the ChiComs want back.

            Opponents of the gen0cidal PRC regime are beefing up their ABM defenses, but of course the nukes could be delivered by container ship.

            I’d hope that Allied intel would detect signs of nuke launch preparations and preempt such an attack.

            Invasion of China isn’t impossible. Monty said, “Only two rules in war. Don’t invade Russia. Don’t invade China.” But in fact both powers have been repeatedly invaded successfully.

            The US could sink the entire PLAN and blow up most of the PLAAF in one night. That would permit entry to the Bohai Sea, from which it’s 90 miles to Beijing. About the only good thing about a totalitarian regime is that its extreme centralization makes it vulnerable to decapitation.

            The Axis of Red China-Russia-Iran-North Korea is outnumbered by the NATO Allies, Oz, India and the PRC’s East Asian opponents. The disparity in wealth and military might is even greater. Besides which Russia is not really an ally of the PRC.

          • Like starting a conflict with India to attempt to rally the Chinese people? I wonder though at how the average Chinese sees their own government. Would the population turn away from their government, if the CPC decided to promote a war as necessary for China? Their large middle class would likely be negative towards such a thought after finally pulling themselves out of endless poverty over the last 30 years.

          • Han people, to include in the Repjublic of China, are nationalistic, like Russians. But as Tienanmen showed 30 years ago, at least the middle class realizes that the Communist regime is not in the best interest of China.

      • Remember, those crap 320 bombs nuclear bombs are Made In China, and probably have lead instead of plutonium with the corruption they have in Red China. Anyway, the other half probably couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn from 7 miles. Same for NORK, probably a lot worse. Take him out now. President Trump gave Rocket Boy every opportunity to join the civilized world, and now it is time to pay the price for Kim Jong-un.

        Do you want to wait until they have 640 nuclear weapons that are maybe more accurate and functional? It is imperative that we settle this once and for all as the longer this takes, the worse it will be. Unless we can facilitate the take down of Comrade Xi, by hook or by crook. I don’t care if his Chinese airplane crashes, which it probably will if it is Made In China. The sooner they rid themselves of that evil monster, the safer the world will be. Look what just happened with them spreading their Gain of Function Wuhan/China virus all over the world. The CPC need to be taken out behind the woodshed real soon and disposed of like the garbage they are.

        • Geez … people think that if you take out the dictator’s army, the mass of people will automatically cheer !

          umm not always. .

          When the human waves of Chinese came over the Yalu River then hills of North Korea into the UN Forces they were believers. It’s like opening up a box of chocolates. You just never know what you’re gonna get. There are still old Russians who still cry over Stalin being dead.

          • The PLA put its captured ex-Kuomintang troops in the first wave, to soak up UN fire. It was a win-win for them.

            The vast majority of Red Chinese prisoners in the RoK wanted to be repatriated to the RoC, not to the PRC.

          • It seems that yet again my reply has been consigned to Outer Darkness.

            Suffice it to say that human wave assaults were led by ex-Nationalist troops with MG-armed Commie battle police at their backs, and that PLA PoWs wanted to go to Taiwan rather than the PRC.

          • Yes, you’re partly right. Look at Iraq and how that turned out. But that was in large part Obama who basically handed over Iraq to Iran, and turned his back on Syria and gave it to Russia and then messed up Libya with the way Hillary Clinton and the Euro’s handled that. Sometimes it best to leave sleeping dogs sleep. If George Bush would have been smart, he would have just made a deal with Tariq Aziz who had been Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister (1979–2003) and Foreign Minister (1983–1991) and a close advisor of President Saddam Hussein being the official spokesman giving updates every night how Iraq would crush the USA right up until the bombing started, and had him give the coordinates for Saddam wherein we could have put one of their own SKUD’s down his own chimney. And Tariq Aziz could have been President of Iraq and saved all that blood and treasure. It was Iran we should have invaded and kicked out their Mad Mullah’s.

            But China has awoken, and is messing up the entire world now, big time. Plus Obama is partly behind this mess with China too, when China promised not to militarize the South China Sea, and blatantly lied about leaving Scarborough Shoal, just 60 miles off Luzon in the Philippines, basically due west of Manila and squarely in their EEZ but can’t access it now, including their EEZ further south in the West Philippine Sea where they built 7 artificial islands/military bases, which has been ruled on by the UNCLOS ruling stating what China has done is illegal. But China lied about all that too, because we had a completely useless, incompetent and seditious President in Obama.

            We should of acted against Japan in the mid 1930’s and also took out Hitler in 1937 when it was obvious what was what about to happen. These are the lessons of history and if we ignore them, history will rhyme with the past. President Trump knows this, and is our only hope to keep a free Western world that has brought so much good and prosperity to the planet. It is time to walk softly, but carry a big base ball bat, and start swinging. The Red Chicom’s got it coming, big time. The only thing they respect is a boot on their neck, and a hand on their wallet.

          • Aziz was a Christian. No way would the Ba’ath Party have accepted him as head of state, even as a figurehead. Had he given Saddam up to the Coalition, he’d have been dead within days, at the most.

            Assuming regime change, the wisdom of which is debatable, the correcct course would have been 1) keep as many Sunnis in power in army and government as possible, and 2) stay in the country to ensure the Shi’a majority didn’t turn Iraq into an Iranian puppet.

            Obama’s precipitate withdrawal guaranteed Iranian control and concomitant rise of ISIS as Sunni force opposing Shi’a domination. A minimal US presence under a Status of Forces Agreement could have prevented both negative consequences. Maybe 30,000 US/Allied troops. A single reinforced US company would have kept ISIS from taking Mosul, which the terrs did with some 200 ragtags.

            Wisdom of liberation of Iraq is debatable because if Saddam had stayed in power, his bribing of the UN to end sanctions would have succeeded. and he’d have soon had nukes, bugs and gas. Still maybe preferable to the situation now, but who can say?

            My opinion at the time was that the right course of action would have been to go into Afghanistan in 2001 with the whole XVIII Airborne Corps, heavy brigades, Rangers, SF and at least two USMC divisions, wipe out al Qaeda, punish the Taliban, then leave just enough NATO force in non-Pashtun areas to keep the Taliban from taking over the country. That would mean more than the reduced Northern Alliance territory, but less than the whole country. Afghanistan is not amenable to a central government, so pay local warlords to keep the Taliban at bay.

          • MarkW says :
            Even if they were “true believers” back then, that was almost 80 years ago.
            ——————————————————————————
            Well actually it was 70 years ago minus 15 days … but math isn’t all that critical here…
            And, except for the changes in the people who run it, and the technology change benefiting the Secret Police not all that much has changed in the Party.

            The regime still disappears people who dissent from, disgrace, or fail the Party. Likely more than we could possibly guess at. Remember, they “won” the 20th Centuries race for the mass graves title … probably doubling Josef Vissarionovich’s score in only 2/3rds the time. And, to this day the Party has never paid a price, any price for the numbers of deliberate homicides so huge that the word “mass” in mass murder just isn’t fitting. Why would they change ?

            There’s about 35 million “excess” males in China due to the combination of the murderous “One Child” policy, and the deep cultural preference for male children. Excess males who have no hope of marriage and family. Traditionally where do excess males go ? The Army. And, their demeanor is going to be gruff. “Gruffer” than the constituents of the Yalu River Crossing.

          • It’s one thing to get people to stay quiet in order to avoid being killed.
            It’s another thing entirely to get people to rush a machine gun nest.

            As to the excess males, it’s also true that these males have been highly pampered their entire lives. Beyond that, each child represents two households, both of which would come to an end if that child were to die in a war.

          • MarkW says :
            “It’s another thing entirely to get people to rush a machine gun nest.”
            ———————————————————
            Two of my dad’s uncles are buried in CWGC Cemeteries. One at Ypres, the other brother on the Somme.
            Arthur was in the front line Canadian Trench at Hill 60 June 13, 1916 when a minenwerfer came in. James fell 14 weeks later in a night attack, the first to reach the Regina Trench. His body was found at the wire in front the trench. Within two kilometers east and west of where he fell, 6000 Canadians still lay in the fields with no known grave. At that point in the war Mark, … ALL the Canadians were … volunteers.

      • I know how to make it happen.

        Actually, it’s happening already.

        Just stop buying anything Made in China!

        400,000 Chinese manufacturing firms closed down in the first quarter of 2020, export cities look like ghost towns, and that was before the world started pulling supply chains out!

        China had better convert its military into farmers if they want to survive!

        • Yep, P Trump was winning the economic war with China via developing ROW policy through bilateral agreements. The mercantilist agenda of dominance by China was steadily being dismantled by the POTUS.

        • “I know how to make it happen.

          Actually, it’s happening already.

          Just stop buying anything Made in China!”

          I think we need a way to tell whether we are buying from China or not. Sellers should be posting where they get their products and materials.

          For me “Made in the USA” is a huge selling point. If I have a choice between something made in the USA and something made elsewhere, I’m buying the one made in the USA even if it costs more.

          Sellers who are selling products made in the USA should advertise that fact. It might make them a sale.

          • Trade is good. From Canada I buy a lot of goods … tools … guy stuff from the USA.

            What is better is “Made and Assembled in … a western country that buys a reasonable balance of goods back from the USA. And, tends to have no plans to invade.”

    • I know what you mean and I hope that Taiwan (the true China) is in a position to take advantage when the Mandate finally fails.

    • I feel sorry for the Chinese people, they’ve been badly abused by their government for generations.

      • PaulH

        Same. My heart and prayers go out for the people China. They are suffering the worst and their stories won’t be heard for a long time.

        • Estimates of course, all estimates, but as Dr. Jordan Peterson says when the variations in the estimates are measured in the “tens of millions” that says something.

          For every innocent person in a mass grave filled by Adolf,
          There are three in graves filled by Joseph Vissarionovich,
          And nine in graves filled by Mao,
          Mao’s successors are still digging.

        • Thats something I am not sure I see here in some of the comments, the potential of millions of Chinese to die if the 3 gorges dam breaks.

          • In the novel by Max Brooks, son of Mel Brooks and Ann Bancroft, the war started in Chungking, Szechwan.

    • “About Watts Up With That? News and commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, weather, climate change, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts”

      Besides which, heavy rain and flooding are weather events, arguably linked to climatic phenomena.

      CACA advocates claim that man-made “climate change” causes droughts and floods, so why not discuss them.

      • “Besides which, heavy rain and flooding are weather events, arguably linked to climatic phenomena.”

        Yes, any minute now some Alarmists is going to connect the flooding in China with Human-cause Climate Change.

        Btw, the US had a similar flooding event two years ago. We had so much rain in the central US that it almost washed Oklahoma’s World War II submarine down the Arkansas river.

          • The submarine, the Batfish, wouldn’t have made it that far. It would have been destroyed by colliding with a lock and dam structure just a few miles downstream from where it is moored.

            Two large barges broke loose from their moorings a few days earlier and both were completely destroyed when they hit the lock and dam.

      • I’d been visiting Hubei, and Wuhan in particular after 2011 and I never knew it was in a drought. I did have a chance to tour some buildings that survived the 1931 flooding on the Hankou side. That flood occurred after a couple of years of severe drought. Funny how that works.

  6. If I remember correctly China has a history of building dams (and other structures) that fail at home and abroad. The culprits are usually sub spec materials and construction shortcuts that pass inspections with money greasing hands. Schadenfreude.

    • Concrete on the ChiCom-made islets in the South China Sea is already falling apart.

      • I’m just hoping the China’s militarized manmade islands builtup from barely above sea level atolls get wiped clean by a typhoon.

        • It would be divine providence if a thrust earthquake off the coast of Palawan, Philippines (Ring of Fire) had a giant tsunami at the same time as Cat 5 Typhoon was bearing down on the West Philippine Sea, and wiped those 7 dredged islets clean off the map. If nature doesn’t do it, the Seventh Fleet will, sooner or later. We are on a collision course with Red China. It would be best if nature handled this, and if there is any karma in this world, it will and couldn’t happen to a better bunch of sick criminals, the PLA. Rise up China, and throw these evil doers into the depths of the ocean.

          • If Biden wins, we’ll be selling them more military hardware so that they can keep their citizens in line.

  7. “Not a good year for China.”

    I’m having an incredibly tough time feeling any kind of empathy for the Chinese. My feelings tend run more along the lines of, I hope the ChiComs drown.

    • I feel sorry for the Chinese people.

      They’ve tried more than once to get rid of their regime. The Tiananmen protests, one version I heard is the local soldiers refused to shoot their friends, so the regime panicked and brought in soldiers from another province before the idea of disobeying central committee orders spread.

      Only a general uprising which prevents the regime from focussing overwhelming force on one group of rebels could dislodge their current government, and they have a very efficient secret police network to stop that from happening.

  8. The reason that the river is flooding down stream of the Three Gorges
    Dam is that they are having to dump water from the reservoirs to
    reduce pressure which they fear could cause another earthquake.

    They recently had one which was reported as a 1 on the Rector scale.

    It seems that the dam is on a previously undiscovered fault line, and
    the information I read indicated that a “3” could cause the dam to fail,
    so it seems that the dam will not fulfil its designed function.

  9. If the dam collapses, causing an unmitigated humanitarian disaster, it could spell the end for the CCP brutal dictatorship or simply make them even more brutal.

    Floods on the Yangtze had been a problem for centuries. It could be that the attempt to stymie nature will fail.

    Pity the rain is not falling here in Australia- it would be most welcome to fill our dams to make Tim Flannery look like a goose yet again.

    • I think the clock is ticking on the current structure of the Chinese regime. They are having terrible problems with corruption, and sometimes experiment with democracy as a way to curb the corruption. Genuinely fair elections help curb corruption; since corruption always makes life worse for ordinary people, its difficult for corrupt officials to keep ordinary people happy.

      Its a crazy world. We could literally wake up one day and discover mainland China has copied the example of Taiwan, and decided to genuinely embrace Democracy all the way to the top.

      • It’s a crazy world alright Eric, corruption is rife everywhere, including Australia. Kean and Rob Stokes are both a part of our sitting government, both are responsible for the renewables push and the environment. Neither of them have a clue about the massive damage that they are causing for Australia in regard to the economy, ecology or the environment. Neither of them care.

        The NSW state premier has recently allocated 50 million dollars to the seat of Hornsby, to turn a disused quarry into a park. That is Kean’s seat. Rob Stokes will not allow high rise development in his seat in Pittwater, not even for affordable housing. These politicians do not represent conservative electorates, they are Greens. These politicians are making totalitarian decisions to carpet the Central West Region of NSW with wind and solar renewables. And they are counting on China to provide them. There are very few jobs in this for Australians.

        Our local council recently disclosed that the 800 hectare solar farm that was just approved in the Central West will earn them more than 2 million dollars. That’s just one of a large number planned in our region, there are many thousands of hectares in the pipeline and no one is talking about what happens to them end of life. Totalitarianism and corruption are rife in Australia Eric, Democracy does not exist.

        The council is cutting off the water in our half of the street at the end of this month, it will affect eight residents. Each of us bought our land because it came with town water. For some that was the prime reason, and we paid accordingly. Turns out the developer put in an illegal system to save money. One of the residents is a single mother with five kids, she’s just had to sell their horses, the other stories are just as sad. All have to find the money to install water tanks, some are really struggling in this regard.

        Corruption, greed and power see politicians do terrible things without a thought to the people who are affected. These renewables, the rape of the planet, all of this was allowed to happen because people who knew the truth were too afraid to speak up, Michael Shellenburger said this himself. We really need to speak up to have any chance of making a difference, if it’s not already too late.

        We can’t pretend that we have a democratic society here in Australia. We do not have ‘genuinely fair elections’, our politics is riddled with Greens, they are running the show here.

      • I’ve been reading Asian manga for several years now. One constant that I have noticed with Chinese manga is that all start from the assumption that those with power will oppress those who don’t have power. There is no law, only power or the lack of power.

        This crops up occasionally in mangas from other countries, but it is universal in Chinese manga.

  10. Does anyone know why the Google Earth images of the 3 Gorges Dam are not real imagery, but are artists’ impressions? Even the historical images?
    What is the best souurce of proper satellite images? The US Geological Service, for example? Geoff S

    • I see that distortion is Google Maps all the time. Straight lines become waves/wavy. Sometimes I’ll look at a long airport runway and I see the squiggly-wavy runway. Of course the runway is straight as an arrow. Something in Google’s image processing of merging multiple images produces the wavy structures. Frequently at airports you’ll see ghost airplanes and half a Jet sitting on a tarmac. Artifacts of Multiple images trying to be put as one.

      The 3-Gorges Dam is still straight. If it bent any at all, as to be detectable by satellites, the pressure from the water would’ve ruptured it in short order. Concrete doesn’t flex. It may have cracks, but those are centimeter movements not detectable in a low-res satellite image.

    • https://earthshots.usgs.gov/earthshots/node/84#ad-image-0-0

      Hubei means “North of the Lake”, and Hunan, “South of the Lake”. The lake is question is Dongting (“Grotto Court”), a variable, shallow flood basin of the Yangtze. It’s now in Hunan, but used to be in Hubei, where land was reclaimed for farming. The oldest sign of rice agriculture, at least in China, has been found on what was the western shore of the lake. It’s also important in Chinese and Asian culture as the source of dragon boat racing, and home of the endangered finless porpoise.

      A massive Yangtze flood would be horrific, but the flood basin of Dongting Lake might protect downstream population centers like Nanjing (“Southern Capital”, metro population ~12 million) and Shanghai (“Upon the Sea”, ~25 million).

    • Wavy satellite photos of Three Gorges were causing panic among the Chinese so they got Google to swap them!

  11. Has anynody done the calculations of false positive covid tests ? It sounds great that a test is 99.9% accurate when it comes to specificity, but the results are terrible when very few have the so-called virus. See the quote below from the Norwegian authorities.

    With a prevalence of 0.01 per cent (as in Norway today), the positive predictive value would be around 7 per cent with today’s PCR test (sensitivity 80 per cent and specificity 99.9 per cent). That is, 14 out of 15 who test positive are not infected with SARS-CoV-2.
    If we presume that the rate is as low as 20 positives in Australia, one in a million, then we would have 1000 false positives if we test a million. If we are lucky we would find one of the Infected ones. We would then probably treat 1000 persons as if they had so-called Covid.
    All the positives in Melbourne may in principle be false positives. Maybe one or 2 have the virus. Now, if the accuracy is only 99%, we would have 10000 false positives for each hit.
    And this is the best possible scenario, not counting false negatives.
    Victoria actually did 1 million tests and got 0.3 % positives. If the accuracy of the tests used were 99.7 they could all be false positives.

    https://www.fhi.no/en/op/novel-coronavirus-facts-advice/testing-and-follow-up/test-criteria-for-coronavirus/

    Now 99.9 % specificity may seem a bit high, and BMJ states the following

    As current studies show marked variation and are
    current estimates from systematic reviews,
    numbers of 70% for sensitivity and 95% for specificity for illustrative purposes.

    University of Texas found the following:

    The sensitivity of the RT-PCR diagnostic test was estimated to be 0.777 (95% CI: 0.715, 0.849), while the specificity was 0.988 (95% CI: 0.933, 1.000). The confidence intervals include sampling error in addition to the error due to probabilistic knowledge of the data

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078949v1.full.pdf

    So the false positive error could be as high as 5%
    If there is no virus at all, we would get 50000
    Pr million rested. The us has tested 40 million
    If the specificity is 92% all of the tests could be false positives. Approximately 8000 people die in the us pr day. Covid 19 has been going on for about 130 days. During this time
    1 040 000 Americans have died. Since many have been coded as covid deaths if doctors have suspected covid, 92% specificity could explain the whole epidemic with false positive.

    With labs being under pressure to perform, it is probable that contaminants from previous tests lead to higher false positives. They cannot result in false negatives.

    Have a look at the quotes below and imagine stressed lab technicians pressured to work quickly and unconsciously being rewarded for finding sars cov2 infections

    Currently, DNA amplification techniques have become important detection tools. However, the extreme sensitivity of such techniques can easily result in contamination. This is a major problem in using these techniques routinely in a regulatory agency such as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) because false-positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results will fail our mission. Preventing PCR carryover contamination and a capacity to rapidly determine false PCR positives are crucial. In the past, several methods have been used to prevent amplicon carryover contamination

    https://www.intechopen.com/books/polymerase-chain-reaction-for-biomedical-applications/regulatory-concern-of-polymerase-chain-reaction-pcr-carryover-contamination

    There can be various sources of contamination during PCR, leading to myriad observations that may require troubleshooting. A common observation is excessive or unexpected signal, typically caused by contamination of reagents with template, genomic DNA, or amplicons from previous reactions.

    https://www.intechopen.com/books/polymerase-chain-reaction-for-biomedical-applications/regulatory-concern-of-polymerase-chain-reaction-pcr-carryover-contamination

    There are many ways a PCR experiment can go wrong, ruining your hard work. Environmental contamination of PCR samples is one such error.
    Obtaining a clean, successful PCR requires samples free of exogenous DNA. But contaminating DNA can be lurking around every corner—from previously amplified products hanging out in the lab to your own DNA. The good news is that you can largely avoid common types of contamination by following these simple guidelines:

    https://www.takarabio.com/about/bioview-blog/tips-and-troubleshooting/avoid-dna-contamination-in-pcr

  12. There’s one thing with floods, you can’t suppress information about them. It’s blatantly obvious for all to see. Since the Chinese rulers are allergic to bad news they must be having nightmares. But spare a thought for Joe Bloggs who’s caught up in it.

  13. False positive post without links. The one with links is in moderation.

    Has anynody done the calculations of false positive covid tests ? It sounds great that a test is 99.9% accurate when it comes to specificity, but the results are terrible when very few have the so-called virus. See the quote below from the Norwegian authorities.

    With a prevalence of 0.01 per cent (as in Norway today), the positive predictive value would be around 7 per cent with today’s PCR test (sensitivity 80 per cent and specificity 99.9 per cent). That is, 14 out of 15 who test positive are not infected with SARS-CoV-2.
    If we presume that the rate is as low as 20 positives in Australia, one in a million, then we would have 1000 false positives if we test a million. If we are lucky we would find one of the Infected ones. We would then probably treat 1000 persons as if they had so-called Covid.
    All the positives in Melbourne may in principle be false positives. Maybe one or 2 have the virus. Now, if the accuracy is only 99%, we would have 10000 false positives for each hit.
    And this is the best possible scenario, not counting false negatives.
    Victoria actually did 1 million tests and got 0.3 % positives. If the accuracy of the tests used were 99.7 they could all be false positives.

    Now 99.9 % specificity may seem a bit high, and BMJ states the following

    As current studies show marked variation and are
    current estimates from systematic reviews,
    numbers of 70% for sensitivity and 95% for specificity for illustrative purposes.

    University of Texas found the following:

    The sensitivity of the RT-PCR diagnostic test was estimated to be 0.777 (95% CI: 0.715, 0.849), while the specificity was 0.988 (95% CI: 0.933, 1.000). The confidence intervals include sampling error in addition to the error due to probabilistic knowledge of the data

    So the false positive error could be as high as 5%
    If there is no virus at all, we would get 50000
    Pr million rested. The us has tested 40 million
    If the specificity is 92% all of the tests could be false positives. Approximately 8000 people die in the us pr day. Covid 19 has been going on for about 130 days. During this time
    1 040 000 Americans have died. Since many have been coded as covid deaths if doctors have suspected covid, 92% specificity could explain the whole epidemic with false positive.

    With labs being under pressure to perform, it is probable that contaminants from previous tests lead to higher false positives. They cannot result in false negatives.

    Have a look at the quotes below and imagine stressed lab technicians pressured to work quickly and unconsciously being rewarded for finding sars cov2 infections

    Currently, DNA amplification techniques have become important detection tools. However, the extreme sensitivity of such techniques can easily result in contamination. This is a major problem in using these techniques routinely in a regulatory agency such as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) because false-positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results will fail our mission. Preventing PCR carryover contamination and a capacity to rapidly determine false PCR positives are crucial. In the past, several methods have been used to prevent amplicon carryover contamination

    There can be various sources of contamination during PCR, leading to myriad observations that may require troubleshooting. A common observation is excessive or unexpected signal, typically caused by contamination of reagents with template, genomic DNA, or amplicons from previous

    There are many ways a PCR experiment can go wrong, ruining your hard work. Environmental contamination of PCR samples is one such error.
    Obtaining a clean, successful PCR requires samples free of exogenous DNA. But contaminating DNA can be lurking around every corner—from previously amplified products hanging out in the lab to your own DNA. The good news is that you can largely avoid common types of contamination by following these simple guidelines:

    • The four coronaviruses which cause the majority of adult colds might contribute to false positives.

  14. I can’t believe people seriously consider a war with China is something to debate on an open forum such as this.
    Some of the contributors go into detail of the type of bombs to be used and the type of planes to deliver the said bombs, with strategic targets prioritised to reduce power, but not destroy people. Then the real headcases come along with just go nuclear and be done with the CPC.
    Has lock down robbed people of their sanity or what?
    The Chinese leader may be a less than perfect candidate for Mr Popular, but seriously, those who casually talk of using thermo nuclear devices, anywhere, need to see their therapist and soon.

    • “I can’t believe people seriously consider a war with China is something to debate on an open forum such as this.”

      Why not? China is at war with the World. Why shouldn’t we discuss being at war with China?

      China is attacking Indian troops and sinking Vietnamese fishing boats, and all sorts of other provocative things that deserve discussion.

      China’s leaders *are* attacking the world and have been doing so for decades. It’s about time the people of the world started paying attention to this threat.

      China’s leaders mean to dominate the world. The World should not allow them to do so.

    • I don’t think that war with China would go nuclear. The CPC is preparing for conventional war, and indeed already waging it militarily against its neighbors, and by other means against the US.

      • Having been around Chinese built Nanjing/Yak Aircraft the general philosophy seems to be
        1.”close enough for government work.
        2. We aren’t going to run out of Chinese anytime soon.
        I personally know a young woman from Wuhan. She’s trying to get US citizenship. She does not know whether her parents are alive, dead or spare parts. The floods do not help.
        She doesnot dare to back as she is a known Christian.

        • Are you a Scoot aviator? On a short list of the greatest airplanes, evah!

          China is however going to have fewer military-aged men in future. Estimates of excess males now run up to around 55 million. But they’re not being replaced. Median age in the PRC is 38.4 years; in India, 28.1, again with excess males. US is 38.1.

          The Red regime knows that time is not on its side. It reversed the single child rule too late.

          I’m sorry for the plight of your young acquaintance. Maybe she should apply for asylum while awaiting citizenship, as long as she’s not a spy or her family subject to reprisals.

          China is also lacadaisical about on the job safety, as it’s presently easy to replace injured workers.

    • I can’t believe how panicky some people get over people discussing things they disagree with.
      Do you actually believe anyone here has the power to actually send warplanes into China?

      Relax, take a chill pill, and try to get some perspective.

    • Rod, I don’t advocate war unless China won’t stop it’s criminal behaviour around the world. And it is vast criminal network that includes their TRIAD gangs bringing in fentanyl/opiates and causing major overdose all over the world. Especially the Western world which they rationalize to do this because of the Opium Wars. They call it their lost century. But that was a different era.

      Not to mention their vast theft of intellectual property and sowing discord all over the world with their Confucius Institutes at Academia, and we see how this Marxism is manifesting itself in open calls for Socialism, Marxism and Communism to replace democracy and capitalism. We need to identify each and every convert to this evil ideology and get them on watch lists, no fly lists, and surveilled until they can be arrested for subversion of democracy in our hard fought way of life our ancestors died for. Many are ignorant and easily led astray, but can be brought back to some form of Western normalcy. But the hard core have to be surveilled and taken down. These are dangerous times.

      It would be best if Comrade Xi is taken out internally in Red China itself. That could be as simple as one of their aircraft technicians ‘modifying’ Xi’s presidential plane, so it doesn’t arrive after take-off. He has to go, and he will, hopefully by his own people. Xi is a curse on the world and the sooner the world wakes up to this and refuses to have anything more to do with Red China the better. The world should all recognize Taipei, Taiwan as the legitimate capital of China, as it was in 1949. That would send a clear message to good Chinese people that we have their backs, and we will assist in anyway possible once the CPC is good riddance. It is inevitable, and the sooner the better.

      I would advocate for placing the Dalai Lama in charge of China, just to rub it in. At least he would be fair and compassionate to them. The one thing the Chinese fear the most is no respect. And they have certainly earned that badge now of complete disrespect from most of the world. Now is the time for maximum disrespect of that totalitarian evil regime and rub it in deep on their face with these CPC officials, while we give support to the Chinese people that we will be full partners in the global order once we are rid of this vile evil regime.

      • Besides which, of course, Tibet should be independent. Same goes for Uyghuristan and Inner Mongolia. Aren’t enough Manchus left in Manchuria to warrant independence.

        Ningshia and much of Yunnan, as well. All these regions now have Han majorities, so might well vote in a plebiscite to remain within China. But a new constitution would respect the rights of ethnic and religious minorities, instead of murdering, imprisoning, enslaving and raping them, and selling their organs.

  15. Today the ChiComs increased discharge from the dam sluice gates to 275,454 cfs, which is something like 123 Million gallons per minute. Enough to flood downstream homes to the second story. So much for the flood-control propaganda.

    I doubt Three Gorges Dam will collapse, unless it overtops. From my experience with dams, structural failure generally occurs during refill operations, which this is not. Overtopping could be a problem since the rising waters in the reservoir seem to be inducing greater landslides upstream which can quickly clog the sluice gates at the dam.

    Don’t forget the trash problem. The trash that has collected upstream of the dam is so thick that people have been photographed walking on top of it. This can clog sluice gates and penstocks as well.

    Irregardless of whether or not the dam fails, the wet markets in downstream Wuhan will become even wetter. I suspect the ChiComs are hoping the resulting flood will wipe out evidence at the Wuhan bio-warfare lab before anybody has a chance to inspect.

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