Global “weirding” or nature being nature?

Reposted from CFACT

By Joe Bastardi |May 9th, 2020|

1)  That “climate change” would be blamed for cold the way it is warm.

2) That the cold we jumped on 2 Sundays ago had merit.

But are things getting weirder?  The question is how hard did you look for weird things, or what you consider weird,  Now lets take 1966. The DNS at 500 mb are pretty darn close to the DNs with this outbreak

Same kind of look with the tail sticking back and the collapse into the northeast

You really want to see Weird. Look at this,  Easter Sunday 1976 at 500 mb

Many all-time Record highs were reached. Yet a week before a monster cold shot into the east with record and near-record cold!

and a month later, May 19, snow flew all the way into NE  Piedmont with this

now lets look at May 9-10 1977.

you want global weirding? Look at the intensity of the positive that shoved the negative into the northeast with the latest heavy  snow on record in parts of southern New England ( Providence for instance 6 inches)

But wait there is more,   within  10 days  RECORD HEAT  in some places that had just had record cold Chicago had 9 consecutive days of 90 plus!

So isnt that weird? No its weather, Its nature doing what nature does.

here is another interesting tidbit.  Cold Mays are notorious for early season tropical cyclone development in the western Atlantic Gulf or Caribbean,  So you will look for that kind of thing. In fact, it happens more often than not.   So if we get that is someone going to say what is something we have seen many times before weird?

One more example for the road, ( Seriously I can bore you silly with more)   June 22, 1972. Agnes.  A piece of the vortex crashed into the east and captured the storm and early season version of Sandy for instance, But on the first day of summer  sleet was reported at Phillipsburg Pa with 4 inches of snow atop Snowshoe Mountain

Now if one wants to play the climate change game ( btw it is warmer as I have said countless times but I think its primarily natural) is not there an argument, given if one looks they can find such extremes, that instead of this being weird, its a case of us returning to where we were?  Now I don’t believe that either, but if you are seeing things that rival previous events or perhaps go a  bit beyond,  and its  40 to 50 years later, why is that not nature doing what nature does?

And therein may be a problem, You see if you have not looked at past events with a fine-tooth comb and wonder, how the heck did that happen( 1950 November Superstorm, 38 hurricane,   and countless other examples, and you look at models, then you may be tempted to say, wow, this is really weird. And it is out of the ordinary, I think you can agree, despite the winter bust,  we always said we had to look for the return of major cold before we would shake all this out. I was in Mt Pleasant Michigan Jan 31 telling farmers that, which made me about as popular as the plague given last year’s horror show. But at least they knew, And you know it too, Once enso 4 cooled the MJO starting behaving the way I thought it would later in winter and that set a lot of this off.  At last look, the MJO was a natural phenomenon,  BTW I don’t think its making things more extreme, but instead telegraphing better where models may go astray. And we have a wonderful example of that this year. Since November 3 months have been cold in the plains east, and 4 warms. But the models a month out had no idea there was that kind of cold coming.  10 days into the month it did ( btw how is that a forecast)  but 20 days out, when energy companies, hedge funds, retailers,  and in fact almost anyone needs to know, they were nowhere to be found.

Here are the forecasts  vs reality





May  from March 10

From April 10

now ( 7 days into the month)

No question it is great picking out the warmth, but the most it can do is hint at cool by making it less warm.

Look at the change in the temperatures over the arctic it had forecasted for May, June, and July 2 months ago

vs now

There are repercussions of the global temperatures being warmer,  something that is distorted.  Modeling can not handle it,  Instead of arguing over the cause or say things are getting weirder, or more extreme, which if you look back in the past you can see is likely not the case, we should be developing modeling that can handle when something different is going to happen, The first thing I would do, given the warmth of the tropical oceans,  would be to get on the MJO forecast over a longer period of time, If you can see where that is going to go, you know the model will have to at least have its influence blended in.  That is exactly what we do, We look at the models,  but then correct them for the strength of the MJO,  Why? because where ts the most energy in relation to source regions of the weather? Right where the MJO patrols. We are seeing a graphic example of that now, and in fact the last 7 months, It got into cold phases for a time in November, it was cold,  It has done it again.

So  I  don’t think the greater amplitude MJO is going to cause extra mayhem, but instead, it could be a valuable clue to when to look for something the models may not be seeing. But academia/gvt who are on the cutting edge of this should be looking into this.

The danger is going to be like winters of 13-14,14-15  that modeling like those years, will not see significant major cold periods, April/May are saddle months, not that big a deal. But if you had it occur in a 60 -90 day period in the heart of the winter season, well it was not so long ago we saw what happens, Conversely, we saw what happened this year. So this is an opportunity to improve forecasting IMO

The second danger is that if there is a sudden snap to colder in the global pattern which would be economically problematic given the number of people on the planet now and where they live, models will likely never see it,  We all know I feel they over attribute co2 since the model that had the least warming  and closest to what happened supposedly had the least co2 feedback in it,  But once going in a direction, it is very tough for the model to see something UNTIL IT STARTS HAPPENING,   The warmth of the oceans means that until they cool, we are likely not to have to worry about that, and the state of the oceans are a product of many things some of which we really don’t have a handle on it, So we know the result of what we see now,  but 30 years from now,  well I am skeptical of “knowing” what is going on,  If you forecast enough you know 30 hours can be something to be skeptical of knowing,

Listen I would love to be able to say, wow this is getting wilder by the day, you need me to forecast it cause those that know me know I am like a starving dog with a piece of red meat in front of them when it comes to the love of Extremes. Extreme weather and hitting it, from far out or close, is like competing in the Olympics to me. ( cue Billy Joel, go to Extremes) Perhaps my attitude is that even a sunny day awes me now, and if you look globally there is always something happening somewhere that has the potential to go to extremes. But that is nature, and the limits on nature are set by nature.  Is it weird, well if you are looking at it one way, you may think so. Another way, you view it in awe and understand that its the creation on display.

Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore.

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larry Wirth
May 10, 2020 10:20 pm

“Creation on display”- great turn of phrase.

May 10, 2020 10:52 pm

Mr Watts, I know that you accept a lot of different posters and their views, which is part of what makes WUWT so interesting. But at times you allow postings that are so badly expressed that it is impossible to work out what is being said. Consider the paragraph quoted below: I am not a grammar nazi, but the grammar is so bad that it is impossible to work out what the author means – and this is true for most of the post.

Is there a need for editing of some occasional posters – many have a long track record of clear posts and can be let through, but others need the help of a good editor to make sure that they can be understood.

Quote: “The danger is going to be like winters of 13-14,14-15 that modeling like those years, will not see significant major cold periods, April/May are saddle months, not that big a deal. But if you had it occur in a 60 -90 day period in the heart of the winter season, well it was not so long ago we saw what happens, Conversely, we saw what happened this year. So this is an opportunity to improve forecasting IMO”

Mike McMillan
Reply to  PaulVD
May 11, 2020 1:33 am

Miss America wants world peace.

PaulIVD wants good grammar from a Penn State wrassler.

Duncan Cragg
Reply to  PaulVD
May 11, 2020 2:01 am

I was about to post the same comment. I gave up trying to read this minestrone. Higher standards please!

Reply to  PaulVD
May 11, 2020 5:40 am

Sometimes, great insight and skill in one area does not carry over to other areas. As one that can be critical of details, I sympathize with your sentiment.

David J Riser
Reply to  PaulVD
May 11, 2020 6:15 am

Joe is writing for people knowledgeable about weather forecasting. So there is nothing wrong with his grammar but rather he is using shorthand to cram a lot of information into a small space or his post would be a waaay long of a read, instead of the very interesting piece that it is. So that little example of his has the years of a winter ie the months of winter from 2013 to 2014 (13-14). not difficult just compact. The IMO is an sometimes used expression for “in my opinion” and is frequently used in blog posts. Earlier he uses MJO which is the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which is like ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) but zips around the planet every 30 to 60 days causing mayhem to model outputs because it isn’t in the models. So personally I find Joe’s articles interesting and easy to read, but then I am an old retired guy.

Smart Rock
Reply to  David J Riser
May 11, 2020 10:00 am

No David, there is a lot wrong with his grammar, and the way he presents his thoughts. His writing has a “stream-of-consciousness” character. It’s hard work reading it, and it doesn’t need to be. And it wouldn’t have been with a modest amount of editing

I know some extremely bright people in my field of activity (geology as applied to mineral exploration) who can’t write clearly and concisely, whether they are aiming at a strictly technical audience or a “knowledgeable lay-person” type audience. In our case the “knowledgeable lay-person” audience often includes potential investors in an exploration project – so getting their attention is an important part of the job. Some people are good writers, and some aren’t, and the ability to write clearly is totally unrelated to technical knowledge or expertise.

Mr. Bastardi is obviously a veteran weather expert; his observations and opinions are important to those of us who want to see honest and open discussion of climate related issues instead of the manufactured alarmism that underlies “climate science”. This post contains some interesting and important observations and it’s a shame that they aren’t more accessible to a casual reader. He just needs an editor, that’s all, and I believe he knows it.

And no, editing wouldn’t have made this post “waaay long of a read”. I’ve done enough editing of other folks’ writing to know that concise phrasing, logical sequencing and avoidance of repetition almost always leads to a shorter, clearer, easier read. And the take-away conclusions are more easily digested and lodged in the readers’ memories (which is, of course, the whole point of writing).

The most important rules for technical writing are embodied in the old adage “tell them what you’re going to say, say it, and then tell them what you’ve said”. Which of course applies equally to oral presentations.

Reply to  David J Riser
May 11, 2020 1:32 pm

So weather forecasters are incoherent and climate experts are longer term and less accurate weather forecasters. We don’t know what weather forecasters are talking about and climate forecasters don’t know what they’re talking about? Got it! That’s how I had it figured already.

Krishna Gans
Reply to  David J Riser
May 11, 2020 2:42 pm

For me as non natural English / American English speaker / reader it’s nearly impossible to follow completely Joes thoughts. But I understand the write down difficulties as they are explained here.
Thaks for clarifying !

Another Scott
Reply to  PaulVD
May 11, 2020 10:22 am

If you read a regional weather forecast from the National Weather Service you might see “discussion” notes from the forecasters that are similar in style to Joe Bastardi’s blog discussion. We read those and a blog like Bastardi’s because we are interested in the information and insight not compliance to APA standards for journal publication or something similar.

Reply to  Another Scott
May 11, 2020 11:39 am


Carbon Bigfoot
Reply to  PaulVD
May 11, 2020 2:36 pm

Paul with VD. NO its weather. Bastardi is erratic that’s why we like him. He LIVES weather and is a treasure chest of historical weather. Joe provides the screens from sources that he has no control over.
He tries to interpret patterns and makes sense of what they mean. Granted when he accentuates a point and goes out on tangents he is difficult to follow. He is not your classic TV weather wonk that can’t forecast two days out. I suggest you avail yourself of WeatherBell Analytics free Saturday presentation which provides long range forecasting. This blog is not necessarily formal—we are more interested in substance than formality. Sorry it doesn’t meet your expectations.

May 10, 2020 10:56 pm

So if we get that is someone going to say what is something we have seen many times before weird?

I thought that was you and Scorcese I saw having coffee together the other day . . .


May 10, 2020 10:59 pm

“So isnt that weird? No its weather, Its nature doing what nature does”

A lot of insight here.
Climate is naturally weird. It is why the farmers of the Neolithic Revolution needed gods and human sacrifices to protect their agricultural productivity from climate weirdness and why climate scientists can so easily sell their new climate religion in terms of climate crises and climate emergencies and demand fossil fuel sacrifices to please the climate gods.

Reply to  Chaamjamal
May 11, 2020 5:36 am

In 1816, it snowed in early June in many places and frost occurred even in late June. Natural variability is quite large.

Joe Crawford
Reply to  Scissor
May 11, 2020 7:15 am

Years ago, when I was in Colorado they use to brag that the earliest snowfall in Denver was July 7th and the latest was July 4th. They also measured winter harshness in the number of day you could not play golf. Of course that didn’t really get controversial until they came out with international orange colored golf balls.

Reply to  Chaamjamal
May 11, 2020 1:38 pm

Here in Western Canada we have a saying. If you don’t like the weather, wait 5 minutes. I know it is also used in other places. I have seen temperatures over 100F and i have seen snow in every month of the year. Today’s weather is no weirder than 50 years ago. On one Easter weekend trip in the 80’s I saw high winds, dust storm, rain turned that to a mud storm, the rain turned to sleet and then to snow. A bit farther on we had heavy fog and about 500 miles from home we ran into a forest fire with smoke so thick we could hardly see. The trip back was uneventful.

Johne Morton
May 10, 2020 11:00 pm

My understanding is that NOAA makes their long range forecasts based on predicted patterns (ENSO, NAO etc.), with the underlying assumption that whatever the trends in recent decades are (very modest warming, even in the UHI polluted surface data), and the assumption that every place will trend towards warm because of greenhouse gasses, will give them a strong bias to always assume it will be warmer than it actually turns out to be. Thus, they might be able to get the warm spells right while completely missing cold spells/periods. I’ve given up on using their long range forecasts for where I live because they’re usually wrong, and the Colorado Front Range is notoriously difficult to forecast…

Reply to  Johne Morton
May 10, 2020 11:29 pm

Johne, NOAA’s USHCN and GHCN datasets for surface air do not show ‘very modest warming.’ They show 3-4 degree Fahrenheit cooling since 2000. That trend will bottom out in 5-10 years, and temp will bound up for ~35 years.

May 10, 2020 11:03 pm

Joe, if you are reading over here, I hope you forgive me for only making an aside comment … with due respect to your huge effort …

Billy Joel did go for the extremes, but remember, he lost his Uptown Girl. We still admire him for trying.

May 10, 2020 11:37 pm

“btw it is warmer as I have said countless times but I think its primarily natural”

You think? So all this is “nothing weird about it” is based on wishful thinking.

comment image

Paleo from PAGES2K:

combined with the surface temperature from Cowtan & Way

Reply to  Loydo
May 11, 2020 12:21 am

Oh Loydo, you do make me laugh.

“…based on wishful thinking.”

Coming from you, that is funny.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Fenlander
May 11, 2020 12:51 am

You don’t get the ironic hypocrisy obviously.
But if science is “wishful” thinking, then there never can be rational thinking.
But par for the course comment on here.

Reply to  Fenlander
May 11, 2020 7:43 am

Yep, my falsifiable hypothesis that Loydo is a creation of Brad Keyes to make alarmist trolls look like idiots has yet to be falsified. Just when you thought an inability to work a calculator was the lowest common denominator, along comes an inability to work a pencil and the back of an envelope.

But wait, there’s more. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions cause global climate change, warming and cooling simultaneously, because Joe Bastardi said something …….

Jim G
Reply to  Loydo
May 11, 2020 3:20 am

The simple fact is my friend…
The models are wrong.

We do not have the necessary and sufficient knowledge to make numerical models that represent all of the processes that take place within the ocean-atmosphere thermal engine. It’s an important effort in my opinion, but we seem to have gotten ahead of ourselves by placing public policy upon demonstrably proven wrong theories.

I would encourage you to look for yourself at the IPCC WG4 AR1-5 reports.
Watch the changes in language regarding the climate outlook.
Also look for the language regarding a Temp Increase of 4-5C vs 1-2C in the different reports.

The next question I have for you, what are the costs to mitigate warming and are there other areas of human suffering where those same investments would have a greater impact?

Could we provide more secure/better water sources for those in the world without them?

How about malaria? In 2018, there were 228 million cases and 405,000 died.
According to this study,
the average cost of treating malaria was $5.38 per episode. Treat all malaria episodes in the world for 1 year for less than $1.5B? That sounds like a pretty good return on investment.

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
Reply to  Loydo
May 11, 2020 12:36 pm


Pages2k has been covered extensively by Steve McIntyre in Climate Audit.

Pages2k – Antarctic Proxies is here .

Pages2k – North American Tree Ring Proxies is here .

Pages2k – South America Revisited is here .

Reply to  Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
May 11, 2020 9:35 pm

Thats ok Alan, you stick with wishful thinking instead. After all it might all just miraculously go away in the winter.

May 10, 2020 11:43 pm

Obviously, we are in Ice Age and have been here for millions of years.
What might be surprising, is we going to stay in this Ice Age for a very long time- that is the nature of
Ages when talking geological time.
Ice Ages have lots of deserts, ice, and a cold ocean. And we can check all these boxes.
If in temperate zone and in an Ice Age you will have violent and unpredictable weather.
Now, if you had some global warming, it’s reasonable to expect less violent and unpredictable weather in
the Temperate Zones, but it seems we have not had enough global warming to make much difference.
I also suspect that the solar minimum does make difference in the weather in the temperate zone.

Or roughly I would guess, that when we return to solar maximum, we could get less “weird weather” though it’s possible we going long period of low solar activity and we won’t have much global warming in the future.

But there was never much hope that we would have gotten much global warming and there never any chance of ever not being in an Ice Age.

Reply to  gbaikie
May 11, 2020 5:47 am

I agree, and for the second morning in a row, I’m turning on my gas fireplace.

Stephen Richards
May 11, 2020 1:28 am

May to June 1975, in the UK. I was in central London waiting for my train to leave and a blizzard-like snowfall was raging . Early june, cricket was stopped in the hills around Buxton because there was 6″ of snow on the ground. The heating phase of the AirCon where I worked was turned on again having been turned off for 1 may. Horse racing was suspended and then, one week later it switched to summer with temperatures in the 70°F

May 11, 2020 3:08 am

Thanks, Joe, great post. Sadly, the gullible and naïve people who need to read this probably won’t.

Stay safe and healthy, all.

Ron Long
May 11, 2020 3:20 am

Thanks, Joe Bastardi, always good to start my day off with an informative dose of reality here in WATTS. Stay sane and safe.

John Bell
May 11, 2020 5:05 am

Anyone here remember May 10, 1990 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin there was a freak overnight blizzard and the morning had ~3 in of wet heavy snow, there were chain saws running all day the tops of trees fell over with the weight of the snow.

Reply to  John Bell
May 11, 2020 1:43 pm

Apparently, that is the weather we are supposed to pine for. No tree pun intended.

old construction worker
May 11, 2020 6:10 am

In my part of the country the weather man said we are 10 degrees below normal. he said we haven’t seen temperature this low, this time of year since 1973. 1973? Isn’t that before the “Co2 Causes Globe Warming” thing got started?

Reply to  old construction worker
May 11, 2020 11:04 am

The year 1973 was near the end of the last cool trend.

Gunga Din
Reply to  old construction worker
May 11, 2020 2:49 pm

And what time frame do they use for “normal” or “average”?
It’s generally based on a recent 30 years span (not a running 30 year span). I’m not sure which three decades are used now (1980 to 2010?) but I’m sure someone here does.
What happened in 1973 is not part of the calculations to determine “normal” or “average”.

Tom Abbott
May 11, 2020 6:30 am

I wish I had your job, Joe. Of course, I would need your expertise, which I don’t have, but the weather the way you see it, fascinates me.

I think Joe should also be described as a weather historian. He sees a current weather pattern and says, “Hey, I remember a pattern just like that back in 1972.” Just what we need in this era where the alarmists see CO2 and “unprecedented” in every weather event and claim it is evidence of human-caused climate change. Then Joe comes along and says, No, we’ve seen this before. It is not unprecedented.

Thanks for all you do, Joe.

There sure was a lot of red in those NOAA estimates. I guess they see red everywhere they look nowadays. They need to get their color blindness corrected.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Tom Abbott
May 11, 2020 8:00 am

“A lot of red”. I’m considering selling my red paint futures contracts. We’ve had a couple of days with snow squalls in eastern Ontario and Toronto had a record low of -4.7C. The weathernetwork tried to soften the shock by saying its the Second coldest “day in May”! They didn’t say what day was the first and they didnt say what year – most likely it was early May in the 1970s.

May 11, 2020 6:32 am

Aside from JB’s ramblings, lack of punctuation, misspellings and meterological acronyms you have to look up, he has a really good knowledge of historical setups (analogs) that can forecast the current weather. I subscribe to WeatherBell and between JB and Joe D’Aleo, have learned a lot about what drives the weather.

Along with a lot of other posters on this site, we all have lived through weather extremes so snow south of 40N in the Eastern US in May is unusual, but we know it has happened before because we lived through it.

Natalie Gordon
May 11, 2020 6:49 am

I am an avid gardener and because I live near the 51st parallel where it is colder than Dante’s 9th level of hell for a good part of the year, I must start tomatoes and peppers and such indoors in pots. I have a little pop up greenhouse where they normally reside in May but the past week we have had such incredibly cold temps even with the greenhouse I don’t dare leave the plants outside. We have broken several records for lowest low and lowest high here this past week by more than 2 degrees. However records are only available going back to 1972. According to some of the old-timers (older than me so really old old timers) this is nothing. You never put out your tomatoes and cucumber plants until the full moon in June and the last of the big northern geese head north or you’ll lose them to frost. You don’t put your winter boots away until after May because there should be at least one good snowfall in May. (Two inches just south of us last Thursday so that might be it.) The past five years I didn’t listen and I put my plants in the garden just after June 1st. One year I lost all my tomatoes even under the quilts I spread. Last year all my zucchini got nipped badly enough to set it back a month. So it is cold but not so very cold if you can find records before 1972. Our first year here we broke the record for rainfall and last year we broke the record for drought. I have concluded that the issue is not some great weather upheaval. It’s not having decent records from before 1972. I intend to mitigate globull warming where I live by buying and setting up a bigger greenhouse with a heater and doing more container gardening and more rainwater storage. In the meantime, I have plants on every open surface in my house waiting for spring to actually get here.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Natalie Gordon
May 11, 2020 8:20 pm

Cold as H here in Calgary as well although i’m starting to get used to this ice age, i wish we could return to the 90’s when we had some heat.
Global warming sucks.
We plant out seeds may 15, then maybe put out tender plants by may 25 but only if long range forecast is reasonable
And then cross fingers
I hate being the business model for plant nurseries (buy, plant, freeze, repeat))))

Crispin in Waterloo
May 11, 2020 9:54 am

Here in Waterloo I awoke to 40 mm of fresh snow, the same is expected later in the day. We are getting daytime concentrated flurries with breaks between, even sunshine. But very cold. The tulips, those that managed to push up, look great in the snowy carpet. I don’t know how much records we are setting but the daily highs are definitely below the instrument record limit.

Reply to  Crispin in Waterloo
May 11, 2020 11:08 am
May 11, 2020 12:16 pm

What blinds progressives and climate alarmists is their own hubris. Knowledge and wisdom from the past, especially the distant past, is irrelevant to them. Only their theories about how to interpret the present concern them, so they never bother to look at historical data to see if something similar occurred in the past.

Reply to  stinkerp
May 11, 2020 1:40 pm

Well said.
“Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” said Sir Winston Churchill (and paraphrasing George Santayana.)

May 11, 2020 1:27 pm

Joe, very good points. The “weirdness” of the mid ’70s in the Northeast seems to have come around again. Of course, for those so-called climate researchers who do not study weather history, they think every significant or even extreme event is unprecedented. I believe it was June of 1977 or ’78 where there was a major hailstorm in the Philadelphia/Trenton area with baseball and larger size hail, as the freezing level was just 3.5 k feet above the surface. Perhaps we’ll get some good severe weather events in the I-95 corridor this later spring and early summer. The point is, even good and knowledgeable climate scientists (I know one, perhaps two) who know better (or should know better) have not fully taken cyclicity and history into account. The mid ’70s seems to be the end of the ~35 year cooling period, and 2010 seems to be the end of the ~35 year warming period (windlord-sun’s incorrect analysis notwithstanding). It appears to me that we’re going to have another 25 years or so of (NH, probablky global) plateauing or even outright slight cooling until 2045 or so. This is the third year in the Northeast we’ve had a cold early winter followed by a less harsh or mild late winter, then a cold spring. Of course, a State Climatologist who shall remain nameless says Spring 2019 was above normal. That’s about as good as NOAA’s seasonal forecasts…actually worse, as the climatologist was not forecasting, only analyzing past temperatures.

Joe, if you need a proofreader or grammarian, I can help out! But I had no trouble understanding what you had to contribute. Thanks.

Reply to  4caster
May 11, 2020 1:39 pm

My analysis is not incorrect, per NOAA direct measurement. We are still headed down. 2019 was the coldest TMAX ever recorded, except for one other analogous event.

Show me how NOAA is wrong.

May 11, 2020 2:00 pm

probablky – probably. Maybe I need a proofreader.

Ulric Lyons
May 11, 2020 4:52 pm

Joseph D’Aleo had my late spring-summer AO/NAO outlook in early April, the first negative anomaly was from week two of May. It’s the bisector of Earth and Venus on the Uranus line, the solar wind has been on the floor for the last week. When they were last round the same side as Uranus was that Arctic blast that the USA got from 12 December 2019, and was on my cold season forecast.

comment image

Mike Maguire
May 11, 2020 6:08 pm

As an operational meteorologist for 37 years, that spent 11 years as chief meteorologist for a CBS affiliate and moderator at a trading forum, I can appreciate Joe as well as the comments about his written communication.

Joe is in an elite class when it comes to understanding the atmosphere and the tools that we use to forecast it. He is at the absolute top of that class when looking at analogs/weather history. This is exactly what he just shared with us.

And sharing is exactly what he did. Unless I’m mistaken, Anthony did not pay him $1,000 for this article. If this were the NYT we were paying a subscription fee that included high expectations for writing standards from paid reporters who write stories all day for a living………then there is good reason to be unhappy.

At the same time, we are constantly blessed with writers that generously contribute articles here that have impeccable writing skills………….so it becomes expected and it might be a huge reason that some come here.
In fact, many of them write articles because they have wonderful writing communication skills, so it’s not a coincidence.

Joe does wonderful when using verbal communication of his knowledge/ideas. He could never get a paid job writing weather articles for the NYT (which would never happen because his politics are wrong) for obvious reasons.

WUWT is a site that uses writing communication the vast majority of time. But wait, Joe did not just write words, he used a ton of weather maps that illustrate what his words may have failed to communicate as clearly. I counted 17 weather maps. As an operational meteorologist, I admit to being biased here but this is data. Real data to illustrate and prove the points his words were making.

I will take somebody that may not be the smoothest communicator on paper/the computer screen who is armed with the expertise AND the data to prove their points conclusively over somebody polished in written communication that bs’s and misleads with the magnificent way that they can put words together.

Should we require that an editor clean up Joe’s article to improve it?
I don’t know. Sure, it could be improved but then we are telling Joe, “hey we can’t post this the way that you wanted it posted”. If Anthony makes changes, then he has to get back to Joe and ask him if its ok to edit this, and this and this.

Then Joe, who is a busy guy and gets paid a great deal for his weather expertise with his real job, might be wondering if it was worth it to donate this article sharing his expertise for free if he has to jump thru a bunch of extra hoops.

The absolute worst thing that could happen to somebody from reading the article seems to be …………….they just didn’t completely understand many of the points that Joe stated.

Again, I’m very biased as an operational meteorologist for 37 years but caught all of his points clearly the way that they were presented.

Thanks Joe!

tom McQuin
May 11, 2020 6:56 pm

A continuation of the last 10 days, when the W-E circulation, 30 000m up in the Northern Mesosphere, came to a halt, then went into a slowish reverse, while the Southern upper circulation really went to town W-E.

Now things get even livelier! Now part of the Troposphere Northern jet, at 9000m has reversed, and gone into full ‘Ben Hur hippodrome race’ around the magnetic North pole, pushing other parts of the Eastward flowing jet stream well to the South. With the Southern jets blasting along from the Troposphere, right up through the Mesosphere, it’s quite a picture. It couldn’t have anything to do with Solar activity could it?
I’m sure the science is settled on this. Anyone?;156;1&l=wind-300hpa

Reply to  tom McQuin
May 13, 2020 11:52 am

This is a great time to be observing how everything works as a cold trend sets in. The daily changes at 10 and 70 hPa over both poles has been fascinating to watch and record.

May 12, 2020 12:00 am

Weather an climate are chaotic.
And chaotic processes are often (always?) self organizing pattern generators, it is what drives so many natural processes and it in the very center of life. Whether or not that we can see them depends on our individual perceptions and biases.
See (1hour long video)

Ulric Lyons
Reply to  tom0mason
May 12, 2020 8:32 am

Mostly the Sun, here’s how larger temperature extremes are ordered and driven:

May 12, 2020 12:02 am

Weather and climate are chaotic.
And chaotic processes are often (always?) self organizing pattern generators, it is what drives so many natural processes and it in the very center of life. Whether or not that we can see them depends on our individual perceptions and biases.
See (1hour long video)

May 12, 2020 12:52 am

It seems all about Confirmation Bias, once chosen we humans can fit any ‘cherry-picking’ (from our desired orchard) to support that bias especially with an incentive behind it to motivate; with a modicum of argument from omniscience and as with CAGW crew ignoring history as necessary.

May 12, 2020 12:57 am


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