Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to New Scientist, places which can’t afford air conditioning are in real trouble.
Climate change has already made parts of the world too hot for humans
ENVIRONMENT 8 May 2020
By Adam VaughanGlobal warming has already made parts of the world hotter than the human body can withstand, decades earlier than climate models expected this to happen.
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Wet bulb temperature (TW) is a measure of heat and humidity, taken from a thermometer covered in a water-soaked cloth. Beyond a threshold of 35°C TW the body is unable to cool itself by sweating, but lower levels can still be deadly, as was seen in the 2003 European heatwave that killed thousands without passing 28°C TW.
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“The crossings of all of these thresholds imply greater risk to human health – we can say we are universally creeping close to this magic threshold of 35°C. The tantalising conclusion is it looks like, in some cases for a brief period of the day, we have exceeded this value,” says Tom Matthews at Loughborough University in the UK.
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Clare Heaviside at University College London says the work is broadly in line with existing research, but cautioned against the focus on the threshold of 35°C TW. “It is difficult to link a wet bulb temperature threshold to specific health outcomes, and for different population groups,” she says.
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Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2242855-climate-change-has-already-made-parts-of-the-world-too-hot-for-humans/
The abstract of the study;
The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance
Colin Raymond1,2,*, Tom Matthews3 and Radley M. Horton2,4
See all authors and affiliationsScience Advances 08 May 2020:
Vol. 6, no. 19, eaaw1838
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838Humans’ ability to efficiently shed heat has enabled us to range over every continent, but a wet-bulb temperature (TW) of 35°C marks our upper physiological limit, and much lower values have serious health and productivity impacts. Climate models project the first 35°C TW occurrences by the mid-21st century. However, a comprehensive evaluation of weather station data shows that some coastal subtropical locations have already reported a TW of 35°C and that extreme humid heat overall has more than doubled in frequency since 1979. Recent exceedances of 35°C in global maximum sea surface temperature provide further support for the validity of these dangerously high TW values. We find the most extreme humid heat is highly localized in both space and time and is correspondingly substantially underestimated in reanalysis products. Our findings thus underscore the serious challenge posed by humid heat that is more intense than previously reported and increasingly severe.
Read more: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/19/eaaw1838
“It is difficult to link a wet bulb temperature threshold to specific health outcomes, and for different population groups,”
Smart advice. Hard wet bulb limits are the fantasy invention of people who have worked all their lives in comfortable air conditioned offices in temperate countries.
A long time ago I had job operating a hydraulic hot press in a poorly ventilated chemical factory. On the very hottest days the indoor temperature hit 55C / 130F, according to the thermometer next to my station, with visible lingering clouds of mostly water steam from polymerisation of the material being pressed.
The management used to look concerned when temperatures peaked, made sure we drank a cup of rehydration fluid every 5 minutes, but otherwise we just carried on.
Plenty of blue collar workers, such as miners, bakers and foundry workers, endure similar conditions on a regular basis.
The hottest place on earth is Death Valley Ca.
The median age in Death Valley (zip 92328) is 49.7, the US median age is 37.4.
Dang facts!!
“We should not be surprised that it’s worse than predicted. It’s always worse than predicted, even when it’s the opposite of what was expected.”
U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked
PETER JAMES SPIELMANN June 29, 1989
https://apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0
Speaking of what would be expected. During previous climate optimum’s like this, Medieval, Roman, Minoan and especially the Holocene climate OPTIMUM , the warming is always greatest in the coldest places……where it benefits the most……. which is why it’s a climate OPTIMUM for life-at least according to authentic science.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_climatic_optimum
“Out of 140 sites across the western Arctic, there is clear evidence for conditions warmer than now at 120 sites. At 16 sites, where quantitative estimates have been obtained, local HTM temperatures were on average 1.6±0.8 °C higher than now. Northwestern North America had peak warmth first, from 11,000 to 9,000 years ago, and the Laurentide Ice Sheet still chilled the continent. Northeastern North America experienced peak warming 4,000 years later. Along the Arctic Coastal Plain in Alaska, there are indications of summer temperatures 2–3 °C warmer than present.[5] Research indicates that the Arctic had less sea ice than the present.”
Maybe I’m wrong but I strongly suspect that ancient Egypt, a cradle of civilization and the breadbasket for Roman civilization, exceeded this apocalyptic wet-bulb temperature over most of the summer.
These people need to get out of their air conditioned offices and see how the rest of the world lives and works.
I was in the USN during the first Gulf War (1991) cruising around in the gulf. Incoming air was over 100F, working in the steam plant means all the watch stations were above 100F with the hottest reaching 130F. Humidity? You tell me, hot wet ocean air coming into a steam plant but I’m guessing right around 100%. Over 100F we were required to run heat stress monitoring which is taking wet bulb temperature and comparing that to a chart. We ran a couple tests and came up with a maximum allowed time of 2 hours so we never wrote anything higher than 100F on our logs. We would spend up to 12 hours a day in that environment and not a single person came down with heat exhaustion/stroke let alone died because some idiot proclaimed it to hot to survive.
“A long time ago I had job operating a hydraulic hot press in a poorly ventilated chemical factory.”
How very odd. I wonder if it was the same job I had doing exactly the same thing a long time ago. But for only one week.
I have gone 2 km deep down a gold mine in South Africa. Rock temperatures reach up to 66°C, RH 95%. Survived it just fine. The phosphorus mines in the north of the country, at Phalaborwa would stop work when temperatures reached 45°C. This was in the 1970’s and 1980’s. Did not think anything about this out of the ordinary. Now live in Canada, and even here have experienced temperatures up to 34°C with high humidity. A lot depends on what your body is used to, you acclimatize.
There are far more places in the world that are already to cold to survive without a man made heat source. Why is that OK but we can’t have places where cooling is essential to live. Why the distinction? We need to evaluate how many of the cold places will become livable vs hot places made unlivable. Both are livable if we apply man made technology and energy. Oh there’s the problem they don’t want us to use energy anywhere.
Lived in Houston for 14 years, I enjoyed the Summers. Jogging at noon, typically I ran 4 miles, was difficult but possible, with precautions.
Surprised to find out that I should be dead.
So I looked at Weather Underground this morning, and what do I see? An article sensationalizing this very subject!
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/heat-and-humidity-near-the-survivability-threshold-its-already-happening
I live on the Gulf Coast. For a fun project I analyzed many months of our recent weather data in comparison to the norm and found the temperature has been running several degrees above average – but the interesting thing is that we do not have highs in the summer that get warmer than they ever have. What happens is the nights don’t really cool down as much as they used to. The main effect this has is preventing more of our occasional winter freezes.