Guest “cool schist” by David Middleton
Are Cosmic Rays a Key to Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions?
A combination of relativistic particles and artificial intelligence may provide a new way to forecast when a volcano could erupt.
By Mara Johnson-Groh 23 hours ago
Forecasting volcanic eruptions is notoriously challenging, but a team of Japanese scientists may have found a new method using relativistic particles from space.
A new pilot study, conducted on a highly active Japanese volcano, used a type of high-energy particle called a muon to map the interior structure of the volcano. When analyzed with machine learning algorithms, these maps could help diagnose when a volcano is about to blow. Thus far, the feasibility of the method has been examined on only one volcano, but it could eventually be more widely applied as the technique is further refined.
Eruption forecasting typically relies on volcanic gas emissions, surface changes, or seismography—which measures trembles in the ground that are often a precursor to eruptions. The new method instead took a visual approach and built on the imaging technique known as muography. First developed in the 1970s to map secret chambers in Egyptian pyramids, muography uses cosmic rays—high-energy particles originating on the Sun and across the galaxy—to map giant objects, similar to an oversized X-ray machine.
Although this pilot study was conducted on only one volcano, it has the potential to be extended to other volcanoes in the future, though there are potential roadblocks. Deep learning works only for large data sets, which don’t yet exist for many volcanoes. And acquiring sufficient data requires a large number of eruptions, a limiting factor for volcanoes that aren’t as active as Sakurajima.
Citation: Johnson-Groh, M. (2020), Are cosmic rays a key to forecasting volcanic eruptions?, Eos, 101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EO142927. Published on 21 April 2020.EOS
Pretty cool schist! Although this bit is funny:
[A]cquiring sufficient data requires a large number of eruptions, a limiting factor for volcanoes that aren’t as active as Sakurajima.
Cosmic rays can only be used to predict eruptions of volcanoes that erupt frequently.
Now, on to some very uncool schist… [Insert hairpin-turn segue]
Day Thirty-Something of America Held Hostage by ChiCom-19
Dallas County update, as of noon Tuesday…
|% of population with||0.10%||0.00%|
|% with, rounded||0.1%||0.00%|
|% without, rounded||99.9%||100.0%|
|Menodoza Line (.200)||12/15/2034||0.200|
0.1% of Dallas County has tested positive for ChiCom-19 and 0.00% have died from it. At this rate, Dallas County will cross the Mendoza Line (.200 batting average) on December 15, 2034. While Dallas County refuses to report how many residents have recovered from ChiCom-19, so we can’t get an accurate count of active cases, the hospital and ICU admission rates indicate that Dallas County is well-past the peak…
Despite the fact that Dallas County is clearly well-past the peak of the ChiCom-19 hostage crisis, Fire Marshal Gump has extended the hostage crisis through May 15…
Dallas County Commissioners Extend ‘Safer at Home’ Order to May 15
Crowds gathered outside as Dallas County Commissioners worked through tough conversations regarding stay-at-home orders and relieving small business
By Alanna Quillen • Published April 21, 2020
Dallas County Commissioners Tuesday voted 3-2 to extend the county’s Safer at Home order until May 15, keeping restrictions in place about which businesses may operate and how large public gatherings may be while advising people to stay at home unless they are conducting “essential business.”
The county reserves the option to extend the order depending on how cases and testing develops in the county in the coming weeks. The county’s disaster declaration, a separate document, is in effect until May 20.
During the meeting a dozens of demonstrators staged a protest outside the County Administration Building at Dealey Plaza. Critics of the stay-at-home order complained about the loss of jobs and income. Several nurses, who said they were there to support public health, faced off with the demonstrators.
Dallas County Health and Human Services Director Dr. Philip Huang recommended that the court extend the Safer at Home order until May 31. Experts advised that cases should trend downward for at least two weeks before the community begins to return to normal. The choice of May 15th was a compromise.
Commissioners John Wiley Price and J.J. Koch were the no votes. They wanted a better schedule for reopening more non-essential businesses and restoring more jobs.
“I’m talking about people and survival and so that’s the difference,” Price said. “Give them an opportunity to survive.”
This is worth repeating:
“I’m talking about people and survival and so that’s the difference,” Price said. “Give them an opportunity to survive.”Dallas County Commissioner, Precinct 3 John Wiley Price (D)
Truly strange times… I have been in almost total agreement with Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price over the past month… And I never agreed with him on anything over the past 35 years.
The votes to continue the hostage crisis into at least mid-May were:
- County Judge Clay Jenkins, AKA Fire Marshal Gump (D)
- Commissioner, Precinct 1 Theresa Daniel (D)
- Commissioner, Precinct 4 Elba Garcia (D)
All left-wing Democrats.
Gump and Dallas County Health and Human Services Director Dr. Philip Huang were among many government officials relying on the wildly inaccurate COVID Act Now models as justification for strangling our economy.
Bear in mind, the purpose of the COVID Act Now models is to perpetually keep the economy shut down:
This model updates every 3 days and is intended to help make fast decisions, not predict the future.
Covid Act Now
When Gump cited the model in the image above (March 23), Texas hospitals were on the verge of being overwhelmed with ChiCom-19 patients, if we didn’t self-immolate our economy. The model has Texas at around 2,300 hospitalizations by April 8. As of April 20, the number stood at 1,678. They have since adjusted their model downward to erase its past failures. Even then, the current model has Texas hospitals looking like the “bring out your dead” scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, within two weeks of releasing the hostages. I didn’t do a screen capture of the Texas model back on April 7; but I did grab one today.
I did get a screen capture of New York and can compare it today’s model.
So why is the organization or seemingly innocent online mapping tool using inaccurate algorithms to scaremonger leaders into tanking the economy? Politics, of course.
Founders of the site include Democratic Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and three Silicon Valley tech workers and Democratic activists — Zachary Rosen, Max Henderson, and Igor Kofman — who are all also donors to various Democratic campaigns and political organizations since 2016. Henderson and Kofman donated to the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016, while Rosen donated to the Democratic National Committee, recently resigned Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, and other Democratic candidates. Prior to building the COVID Act Now website, Kofman created an online game designed to raise $1 million for the eventual 2020 Democratic candidate and defeat President Trump. The game’s website is now defunct.
Perhaps the goal of COVID Act Now was never to provide accurate information, but to scare citizens and government officials into to implementing rash and draconian measures. The creators even admit as much with the caveat that “this model is designed to drive fast action, not predict the future.”
They generated this model under the guise of protecting communities from overrun hospitals, a trend that is not on track to happen as they predicted. Not only is the data false, and looking more incorrect with each passing day, but the website is optimized for a disinformation campaign.
A social media share button prompts users to share their models and alarming graphs on Facebook and Twitter with the auto-fill text, “This is the point of no return for intervention to prevent X’s hospital system from being overloaded by Coronavirus.”The Federalist
The votes to liberate the hostages at the end of April were:
- Commissioner, Precinct 2 J.J. Koch (R)
- Commissioner, Precinct 3 John Wiley Price (D)
Fortunately for us hostages, the Governor of the Great State of Texas outranks Fire Marshal Gump.
Dallas County extends stay-at-home order through May 15, but Abbott may overrule action
BY STEFAN STEVENSON
APRIL 21, 2020
Tuesday’s 3-2 vote by county commissioners could be overruled by Abbott. Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins, who cast one of the three votes to extend the order, said he’ll leave it up to the state to decide.
[…]Fort Worth Startle-Gram
In my never ending effort to eliminate political correctness, I refer to all things coronavirus as ChiCom-19.
Fire Marshal Gump?
County Judge Clay Jenkins is the chief executive of Dallas County and presides over the County Commissioners Court. He looks like the Jim Carrey character, Fire Marshal Bill from In Living Color and he talks like Forrest Gump.
What do ChiCom-19 and Fire Marshal Gump have to do with using cosmic rays to predict volcanic eruptions?