Guest “post that doesn’t mention ChiCom-19” by David Middleton
APRIL 20, 2020
North Pole soon to be ice free in summer
by University of HamburgThe Arctic Ocean in summer will very likely be ice free before 2050, at least temporarily. The efficacy of climate-protection measures will determine how often and for how long. These are the results of a new research study involving 21 research institutes from around the world…
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Phys Org
2050? What happened to 2014?
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I’ve developed a computer model that demonstrates that 100% of computer models return the result that the programmer desires. Admittedly I had to add a parameter to allow for adjustment of the programming skill of the developer, and another to allow for committee based consensus of the desired outcome, but the evidence is irrefutable.
Indecidable sentence, indecidable sentence, indecid …
Note to self:
-Get a floatplane rating asap before all airports are submerged.
*implicit palmface*
As if we don’t have that many serious issues to figure out, here they come with the “Waterworld” sequel du jour…
basically the same finding as Ar5
“basically the same finding as Ar5”
So equally clueless.
“basically the same finding as Ar5”
In other words, just as crap and out of touch with reality as AR5. Not exactly a ringing endorsement there Mr drive-by.
Interesting that the RCP’s have been renamed “SSP Scenarios (shared socio-economic pathways)” I think it’s reasonable to assume that SSP5-8.5 (which their predictions are based on) is our old friend RCP 8.5. Its description has been changed from “business as usual” to “largely unchanged future CO2 emissions“. I suppose the names have been changed from the essentially meaningless “representative concentration pathways” to the equally meaningless but more pretentious-sounding “shared socio-economic pathways” to give the impression that they are doing something new and creative.
Climate science at work. What a waste.
Totally disturbing this information. We must take care of our planet earth. in less than 30 years there will be no more ice in the Arctic, wow!
You forgot the /Sarc tag.
By 2050 –or 2070 — or 2090 — or maybe even 2040. Whatever, maybe whenever it might get warm enough for long enough. Or maybe not!
Made me think of this scene from Mr. Mom…
https://youtu.be/iX3kxAA2L4Q
An ice-free Summer Arctic event is the last hobby horse the Left has been ridding hard for the past 30 years…
It’s hilarious to see this event is now predicted to happen in…..2050… I thought the “experts” said it was a done deal in 2012?
What’s an even more interesting phenomenon is the very rapid recovery of Antarctic sea ice this year….
A little off topic, but does anyone have any ideas of what’s happening in a 2,000km-long mixed narrow band of very cold and very warm SST anomalies off the coast of Nova Scotia that has been going on for many months?
I can’t recall ever seeing anything like this.
Cheers.
The warm anomalies have been there for many years. Has always seemed strange to me. They seem to appear out of nowhere and lead to nowhere.
Richard-san:
I understand the many large pockets of +5C SST temp anomalies are being caused by the Gulf Stream, but what’s perplexing are all the cold -3~-5C SST cold anomalies which are interspersed right next to these +5C SST anomalies.
It’s like huge volumes of deep cold ocean ocean water are being pumped into this 2,000 KM section of the Gulf Stream which I can’t recall ever seeing. It seems really bizarre.
Seems like we’ve had a string of unusually strong (windy) storms with breakouts of arctic air this spring in New England. Don’t know if those could effect SST like that. Temps the usual roller coaster, but the wind seems stronger to me.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t52sLWCQwuztd7MSSJWgqN3-_RQiTIiW/view?usp=sharing
Ice free? Yeah, that’s why Russia is building more, larger, ice breakers.
https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/russia-to-build-two-more-nuclear-icebreakers
Been ice fee before , what’s the big deal? Submarines surfaced there in the 50s, it waxes and wanes. Jeez get a grip.
And the 80’s too.
Loydo
“Peter Wadhams led over 40 expeditions to the Arctic, so I don’t know if you should dismiss him so lightly. Have you been there?
So what was he doing there ?
According to him the place would be ice free [Wadham definition] in summer by 2017 or 2018.
Hmnnn… 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/21/arctic-will-be-ice-free-in-summer-next-year
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/03/
Omly it isn’t called ChiCom-19.
Oops, I did it again!
Omly enough, I agree with you.
When all the snow settles, it is Winter Ice that is of concern! Its demise can be calculated – but we’re talking about centuries into the future!
Why winter ice and not summer?
How do you know its “centuries”?
Why not?
How do you know it’s not minutes?
IMPORTANT:
This is probably a serious warning about what to expect from the nest IPCC report, since quote:
“The simulations used in this study are based on so-called SSP Scenarios (shared socio-economic pathways), which will also be used for the next IPCC report. Scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 are used to simulate a rapid reduction of future CO2 emissions, while scenario SSP5-8.5 is used to simulate largely unchanged future CO2 emissions. The study is based on simulations from the most recent generation of climate models, collected within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).
So what does that indicate about these “new SSP IPCC climate science simulations”?!
Shockingly enough, this SSP based study says that the Arctic summer ice will not only disappear at today’s CO2 levels, but even at “rapidly reduced emissions”(!), quote:
“The research team has analyzed recent results from 40 different climate models. Using these models, the researchers considered the future evolution of Arctic sea-ice cover in a scenario with high future CO2 emissions and little climate protection. As expected, Arctic sea ice disappeared quickly in summer in these simulations. However, the new study finds that Arctic summer sea ice also disappears occasionally if CO2 emissions are rapidly reduced.”
Lord have mercy.
” the melting point of water rose…..”
The Russians are being contrary again !! Not content with building a new fleet of large nuclear-powered icebreakers, one on trials, 2 fitting out, and 2 on order, they have let a design contract for 3 even bigger units capable of pushing through 4 metres of ice for delivery 2030-33. But then, Russians only live there. What would they know compared to a swag of professional schoolkids hunched over their computers in climate-controlled luxury ?
Not according to its captain, James Calvert, or to the photographs taken at the time.
As they searched for some thin ice to break through Calvert reports “But everywhere ice of 10 feet or more created a black ceiling on our icy world”.
Eventually they found a thinner patch and attempted to break through.
“Finally, about 4:30, our sail crunched into the ice where we wanted it. We watched the TV with anxious eyes: it showed us going through! The ice was heavier here than we had broken through before, but we were breaking it”.