Early Arctic Freeze Threatens to Strand Ships.


Two icebreakers are on the way to rescue ice-locked ships on Northern Sea Route

Some 20 ships are either stuck or struggling to sail, as waters in the East Siberia Sea froze earlier than in recent years

.By Atle Staalesen, The Independent Barents Observer -November 10, 202178

Icebreaker Fennica, source Wikimedia (attribution license – author Marcusroos https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Icebreaker_Fennica.jpg

District authorities in the Russian Far East have commissioned two icebreakers to aid vessels currently caught in ice in the East Siberian Sea.

The nuclear-powered Yamal is due to arrive in the region by November 20, while the diesel-powered Novorossiisk will arrive by November 15, according to regional authorities in Chukotka.

The rescue vessel Spasatel Zaborshchikov is also being sent.

The decision was this week taken by Yuri Trutnev, the presidential aide to the Russian Far East.

The commissioning of the powerful icebreaking vessels comes as severe sea ice conditions have taken shippers by surprise. There are now about 20 vessels that either are stuck or struggling to make it across the icy waters. Among them is the UHL Vision that over the last days has been isolated in the waters north of the New Siberian Islands, and the bulk carriers Golden SuekGolden PearlNordic Quinngua and Nordic Nuluujaak that are located east of that same archipelago.

In the area is also oil tanker Vladimir Rusanov, as well as cargo vessels Selenga and Finnish ship Kumpula, all of which are at west-bound escort by nuclear icebreaker Vaigach.

Meanwhile, in the port of Pevek are six vessels that also are likely to need assistance to make in out from the area.

Read the full article here.

HT/Andreas L, Yooper

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November 16, 2021 10:03 am

Climate change is a first-order forcing of semantic drift.

Reply to  n.n
November 16, 2021 11:24 am

Now those 20 captains should ask Al ” artic ice free by 2014″ Gore for compensation.
But at least polar bears are happy now.

Funny Note – while Al Gore and his Griffs have been waiting for an ice free arctic 2014,
the “crazy” russians developed plans to built a new fleet of super ice breakers.Starting with Arktika(175 megawatt atomic drive) whose construction has begun in 2012.

What kind of crazy person builts ice breakers for an ice free arctic – and so many of them?
I guess the same guys who buy front beach properties as long term investments.

Reply to  SxyxS
November 16, 2021 11:37 am

The point being that this IS unusual these days…

Ron Long
Reply to  griff
November 16, 2021 11:42 am

It’s OK, griff, it’s just weather and not negative climate change, but you should stay on your meds just in case.

Reply to  Ron Long
November 16, 2021 1:43 pm

Griffo made mi laugh, so he is excused this time for being so dumb, he left his brain at the butchers again. For a change I’ll give him a +, not that it will make any difference.
Griffo keep it up, humour is in short supply among your lot.

Reply to  Vuk
November 16, 2021 2:18 pm

They’re ridicule, irony and p1ss-take challenged too.

Nature (not that rag of a pretend science journal) keeps sending them up uproariously, but they keep coming back for more.

Much to the world’s increasing amusement, as evidenced by reportage & leftist hand-wringing over the latest CoP epic fail.

Reply to  Vuk
November 16, 2021 2:40 pm

Hi Vuk: Griff should be celebrating the wonderful virtues and benefits of cold weather. After all, he knows for sure that warm is bad and cold is beneficial on net.

It seems nothing will please him.

Reply to  griff
November 16, 2021 12:05 pm

nothing is unusual –


Is the North Pole going to melt entirely? Are the Arctic regions warming up, with the prospect of a great climatic change in that part of the
world? Science is asking these questions (says “Popular Science Sightings”).
Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas
around Spitsbergen and the eastern Arctic all point to a radical change
in climatic conditions, with hitherto unheard-of high temperatures on that
part of the earth’s surface. Observations to that effect have
covered the last five years during which the warmth has been steadily
In August the Norwegian Department of Commerce sent an ex-pedition to Spitsbergen and Bear island under the leadership of Dr.
Adolf Hoel, professor of geology in the University of Christiania, the
object in view being to survey and chart areas productive of coal and other minerals. The expedition sailed as far north as 81 deg. 29 min. N. lati-
tude in ice free water. Such a thing, hitherto, would have been deemed im-
possible. The United States Consul at Bergen, Norway, Mr. Ifft, also reports the recent extraordinary warmth in the Arctic. He quotes incidentally the
statements of Captain Martin Ingebrigstsen, a mariner who sailed
those seas for 54 years. The captain says that he first noted
an annual warmth in 1918; and since then temperatures have risen steadily
higher. Today the eastern Arctic is “hardly recognizable as the same
region of 1868 to 1917.” Many of the old landmarks are greatly altered, or no longer exist. Where formerly there were great masses of ice, these have melted away leaving behind them accumulations of earth and stones such as
geologists call “moraines.” At many points where glaciers extend far into
the sea half a dozen years ago they have now entirely disappeared.
The change in temperature has brought great changes in the plant
and animal life of the Arctic. Formerly vast shoals of whitefish were found in the waters round Spitsbergen, but last summer the
fishermen sought them in vain.

Seals Disappear.

Seals which used to be plentiful in those seas, have almost entirely disappeared. It would seem as if the ocean must have become uncomfortably warm for some of its denizens which formerly frequented those lati- tudes, causing them to flock north ward towards the Pole. On the other hand other kinds of fishes, hitherto unknown so far north have made their appearance. Shoals of smelt have arrived, and immense schools of herring are reported by fishermen along the west coast of Spitzbergen. Formerly the waters about Spitzbergen have held an even summer
temperature in the neighborhood of 5 degrees above freezing. This year it rose as high as 28 degrees. Last winter the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast of Spitsbergen. This is on the authority of Dr.
Hoel. This state of affairs is a cause of much surprise and even astonish-
ment to scientists, who wonder whether the change is merely temporary or the beginning of a great alteration of the climatic conditions in the Arctic, with consequent melting of the polar ice sheet. How great the change is that has
come over the climate in the Arctic regions may be understood by the
struggles of the early explorers to discover the north-west passage, or
the open body of water existing around North America, leading
eventually to India. The passage was first undertaken by way of Spitsbergen, but the thick ice repeatedly beat back the ships of the explorers. From exploits to discover the north west passage many of the trips for the conquest of the North Pole were eventually undertaken. Parry was First. Parry, the great British explorer, was first to negotiate the open passage between Greenland and Bering Sea, reaching half-way across the top of North America before he was hedged in by the ice, and with supplies becoming low, dared go no
further. He was first to discover the north magnetic pole and to report the astonishing fact that the needle of his compass turned and pointed directly
south. Unquestionably his conquests in the frozen Arctic led to the actual
penetrating of the north-west pass- age from the Atlantic to the Pacific
by McCure, Collinson, and Amundsen later on. From the difficulties besetting these great Arctic adventurers some idea of the tremendous thickness of the
ice may he had. Even at the very spot north of Spitsbergen where open
water was seen this summer, such well-known explorers as Hudson and
Phillips had great difficulties in penetrating on account of the thickness of
the ice, and, in spite of their equipment, one of them could not go even
as far over the ice at the spot where the open water showed a few months

Fur Clothes Too Warm.

Not only are the seals and polar bears finding the climate unpleasantly
warm for them, but it is said that the Eskimos in some localities are complaining and are finding their fur clothes too warm for them.
The region about the North Pole is covered by an ice cap which, to-
wards the east, extends over nearly the whole of Greenland to what is
practically a single enormous glacier. To cross the great glacier has been
the quest of many adventurous spirits. On account of the severity of the
winds that sweep over the immense slowly moving cake of ice, it was
never successfully accomplished until Nansen managed to go from the east coast of Greenland across the top of the ice barrier to the west coast at
about the sixty-fourth parallel of latitude. Nansen and his five companions
reached a height of 8922 feet at the top of the barrier, showing how thick the ice had become through ages of freezing.

Peary and Astrup.

Later on Peary and Astrup crossed the island much further north and
had to climb a solid hill of ice about 8000 feet high. But there was not always an ice cap. In time long gone by the region about the North Pole had a warm climate and all of Greenland was covered with a luxuriant tropical vegetation. This is positively known because fossil remains of palms, breadfruit trees, and other plants properly belonging to warm latitudes have been dug up there in quantities. It seems at least possible that the extraordinary warmth in the Arctic during the last few years marks a step in a return to this condition. Such a change as that suggested can- not be suddenly or even rapidly accomplished; but, if there shall come a time when the North Polar ice cap
is entirely melted, and Greenland incidentally freed of the ice sheet
which covers it, other latitudes will also experience a wonderful climatic
alteration, and climates all over the world may become steadily and gradually warmer.


Geoffrey Williams
Reply to  richard
November 16, 2021 12:23 pm

Is the northpole going to melt entirely?
Not this year Richard. . .

Reply to  richard
November 16, 2021 1:05 pm

Add 1959 to the melting arctic ice.
That year the submarine uss skate surfaced at the north pole.

Reply to  griff
November 16, 2021 12:27 pm

What is unusual these days?

Buying front beach properties?

Building ice breakers?

ice volume?
There is and always has been massive fluctuation in terms of artic sea ice.
The submarine USS SKATE surfaced at the north pole in 1959 .
I wonder how the polar bears survived this lack of sea ice.
Since then the arctic sea ice has been increasing for the next 2 decades.
Nowadays they use the trick to claim that there was no artic satellite data prior to 1979,
so they can use the peak artic ice extent of 1979 as ” normal ” reference.
That claim is strange as they had ozone hole satellite data since 1969.
The arctics are right below the ozone holes.You can observe a fucking invisible gas via satellite but not the visible land.ice and water right below the holes??

That’s BS.

Griff, you know very well that 4 dozens of experts wrote a letter to Nixon
in dec 1972 to melt the arctic sea to save us from the coming ice age.
They considered the ever growing arctic sea ice abnormal and a threat.
But somehow the much bigger ice extent of 1979 is now sold as normal?

Reply to  griff
November 16, 2021 1:05 pm

Ice levels have been increasing for the past 9 years, how is a continuation of this trend “unusual”?

Reply to  griff
November 16, 2021 1:05 pm

Yes Griff, ice is so unusual in the Arctic.

Krishna Gans
Reply to  griff
November 16, 2021 1:19 pm

What the hell is unusual, growing ice in winter ?
Or growing more than the last years ?
Your misunderstanding of facts ?

Bryan A
Reply to  Krishna Gans
November 16, 2021 9:39 pm

What is unusual is that the Arctic ICE is apparently NOT following the narrative
Apparently the Arctic Region doesn’t read the “Science Journals”

Bob boder
Reply to  griff
November 16, 2021 1:38 pm

The point being that you said the Arctic would be ice free, I called you on it, ask to you to put up or shut up and you chickened out.

Reply to  griff
November 16, 2021 2:26 pm

“The point being that this IS unusual these days…”

Wrong, again!

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  griff
November 16, 2021 2:36 pm

The point being that this IS unusual these days…

All of you ragging on poor old griff are missing the point that griff is completely correct this statement. More so than it believes, in fact.

Yes, this is unusual these days. It used not be unusual, but someone changed people’s perception of what is usual, and so a completely normal and often seen event is now seen as unusual.

Climate Scientology in action!

Reply to  griff
November 16, 2021 2:37 pm

I agree with Griff, it’s unusual –that hot oceans and hot air refuse to follow physics I was taught in engineering school and unexpectedly ice the hell up.

Truth Be Told
Reply to  griff
November 16, 2021 3:38 pm

The “safe & effective” prions are feeding on your brain. Still using Mann’s Hockey Schtick?

Reply to  griff
November 16, 2021 6:09 pm

How would YOU know Griff, you have records going back centuries?

Face it, ICE BREAKERS are needed to rescue ship in ice free waters.


Reply to  Sunsettommy
November 17, 2021 10:35 am

How would YOU know Griff, you have records going back centuries?

Griff just said (yesterday I think) that we shouldn’t be looking at the past, so those records don’t matter.

But if you’re not going to compare to the past I don’t see how you can say something is unusual or not.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  griff
November 17, 2021 4:11 am

But you don’t know that- you only believe that because you believe the prophets of your climate disaster religion.

Andy Wilkins
Reply to  griff
November 17, 2021 5:23 am

So when’s the north pole going to be ice-free Griff?
Can we have a ball park figure from you for the year?
Ta muchly.

John the Econ
Reply to  griff
November 17, 2021 7:58 am

If Arctic ice was supposed to be a thing of the past, then why did Obama order new icebreakers?

Obama to Call for More Icebreakers in Arctic as U.S. Seeks Foothold

Reply to  griff
November 17, 2021 10:27 am

“these days” from the guy who said to ignore the past?

You still haven’t answered me, griff – what is the RIGHT climate?

Rud Istvan
November 16, 2021 10:09 am

Clever Russians. Encourage the Northern Passage, then encourage sailing it in November because global warming says that is OK. Then charge for their icebreakers to rescue the many resulting ice bound ships. No wonder Putin did not attend COP26; could not have kept a straight face.

John Tillman
Reply to  Rud Istvan
November 16, 2021 10:13 am

A cunning plan!

Reply to  John Tillman
November 16, 2021 2:09 pm

Not really, just following good science.
This graph shows that in the last 20 years as the climate warmed annual precipitation increased.comment image
It is probably true for Siberia too. Three great rivers: Ob, Yenisei and Lena supply huge amounts of fresh waters to Siberian Arctic. When there is increase in fresh water salinity falls, ice comes earlier and in increased volume and coverage.

Reply to  Vuk
November 17, 2021 8:25 am

Trend about one inch more annual rain per century? Whoop-dee-do.

James Bull
Reply to  menace
November 18, 2021 10:33 am

All that rain has got to make the sea level rise, just ask a warmista they know skience!

James Bull

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Rud Istvan
November 16, 2021 10:35 am

It’s ironic that one of the icebreakers is named after the home of one of the most famous trees in climate science.

Reply to  Ben Vorlich
November 16, 2021 2:16 pm

‘The Yamal Peninsula is a strategic oil- and gas-bearing region of Russia. The aggregate gas reserves and resources found in all fields of the Gazprom Group in the Yamal Peninsula and the Yamal shelf of the Kara Sea make up 20.4 trillion cubic meters. The Yamal gas production center is key to the development of the Russian gas industry in the 21st century. Gazprom intends to carry out production operations in Yamal for over 100 years.’
German mustachio WWIl warrior should have gone there not for Stalingrad.

John Tillman
Reply to  Vuk
November 16, 2021 2:32 pm

It wasn’t developed yet. Like saying Japan should have gone for Sakhalin rather than the Dutch East Indies.

Curious George
Reply to  John Tillman
November 16, 2021 5:48 pm

Japan owned a half of Sakhalin until 1945.

John Tillman
Reply to  Curious George
November 19, 2021 6:22 pm

True, but petroleum exploitation hadn’t happened yet.

4 Eyes
Reply to  Vuk
November 16, 2021 3:12 pm

In the early 1980s 16 high rate gas wells blew out on the Urengoy peninsula as a result of the metallurgy of the casing being unsuitable for the cold and the gas composition. The flow rates were so great that the permafrost around the wells melted and the ground turned to slush. It was impossible to access the wellsites to attempt well control so the wells flowed at AOF rate for a long time. At the time we were told of this (by the the energy adviser to the US secretary of defense) 40 TCF of gas, essentially methane, would have been vented to the atmosphere and the wells were still flowing. And today people worry about fugitive emissions and the global warming effect of methane! We were never told how the problem was fixed.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
November 16, 2021 11:09 am

Sounds very much like the strategy to tell Cornpoop to sabotage self sufficiency of the USA so the country has to pay a 400% premium for foreign oil.

Reply to  SxyxS
November 16, 2021 3:56 pm


Reply to  Rud Istvan
November 16, 2021 11:23 am

Incredible – someone should tell Greta that Putin controls the weather – what tweets should follow!

Either your sarc tab is broken, or iced up?

Peta of Newark
Reply to  bonbon
November 16, 2021 12:56 pm

I was thinking similar.. A variation on Sod’s Law.
i.e. Normally, if me/you/anyone ‘buys insurance‘, then we never ever need it.
The converse applies that if we didn’t buy the insurance, Sod says we’d be wishing we had by this time tomorrow

So, the Russians built ice breakers (bought the insurance) and lo-and-behold, they actually do seem to need it (there came ice to be broken)
Is that wierrrrrrrrd or wot?

Maybe Vladimir does know how to control weather?

Not = Vlad The Impaler of olden times..
meet the new and improved:
Vlad The Weatherer of modern times

you read it here first

Reply to  Peta of Newark
November 16, 2021 1:52 pm

The whole point- Mr. Putin doesn’t know how to control the weather. But when eminent, honest, experienced scientists predict a Grand Solar Maximum and the sunspots nearly disappear like clock work when they predicted, he takes the hint. Grand solar maximums have always brought nearly world wide lowered temperatures.

I can’t believe it! Vladimir Putin made a very judicious decision- when the Grandfather Clock hits midnight the chimes sound.

Curious George
Reply to  Rud Istvan
November 16, 2021 1:45 pm

A cold weather is only weather. Only warm weather qualifies as climate change.

John Tillman
November 16, 2021 10:12 am

Overall, Arctic sea ice extent was higher yesterday than on that date in any year since 2015:


Reply to  John Tillman
November 16, 2021 10:17 am


John Tillman
Reply to  richard
November 16, 2021 10:22 am


Also above the 2011-2020 average.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  richard
November 16, 2021 2:41 pm


Richard, that comment was succinct and straight to the point. Thank you.

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
November 17, 2021 9:07 am


Krishna Gans
Reply to  John Tillman
November 16, 2021 10:20 am

Even more than last year…

Reply to  John Tillman
November 16, 2021 10:30 am

there was a time when the IPPC was a little honest and illustrated ice extent before the high of 1979-

page 224


John Tillman
Reply to  richard
November 16, 2021 11:21 am

Figure 7.20 for those who want to look.

Each succeeding AR has gotten less scientific and more political.

Reply to  John Tillman
November 16, 2021 11:22 am

Griff told me there is no sea ice (and all the polar bears are dead).

Reply to  Fraizer
November 16, 2021 8:40 pm

Oh noes! And all the penguins are gone, too. It’s worse than we thought!

(Just in case… 😜)

Reply to  John Tillman
November 16, 2021 4:50 pm

Also about the same as that in 1974 (Parkinson, J. Geo. Res., vol 94, c10, p14,499-15,523, 1989).

John Tillman
Reply to  John Tillman
November 18, 2021 3:21 pm

Crossed over 2015 yesterday and into 30 year normal zone.


Tom Halla
November 16, 2021 10:16 am

Somehow, this is due to global warming.

Reply to  Tom Halla
November 16, 2021 12:21 pm

That’s why they had to rebrand “global warming” as “climate change.” Not enough ice is climate change, too much ice is climate change, and an unchanging amount of ice is climate change. Easy as pi. 😉

Reply to  PaulH
November 16, 2021 1:21 pm

Why only use 50% of the propaganda potential ( warming)
when you can use 100% of propaganda potential (warming & cooling)
by appropriating and weaponising all the things that contradict your lies by simply switching from warming to climate change as climate change can mean anything (just like hate speech, political correctness and gender pronouns – anything goes )
Arbitrary tools of tyranny disguised as good intentions (the biggest trick Marx ever pulled.The 2nd biggest is to make his followers feel morally and intellectually superior)

But the real genius behind climate change rebranding is not that you monopolise all kinds of events to prove your point.
It is that you take the all weapons away that your enemy used against you(cooling)

Reply to  SxyxS
November 16, 2021 1:57 pm

Good points. I would also include how the green blob rebranded carbon dioxide as “carbon” and “carbon pollution” or just plain “pollution”.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  PaulH
November 16, 2021 2:58 pm

“Global warming” is specific and unequivocal. “Climate change” is unspecified; in other words it’s equivocation … the logical fallacy of ‘appeal to ambiguity’ an unfalsifiable assertion.

Reply to  Rory Forbes
November 16, 2021 6:03 pm

“Climate Crisis” is even better because it covers the case when nothing changes.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  asiaseen
November 16, 2021 8:08 pm

Even worse they predicate all this hyperbole on something that doesn’t exist … “global” climate. There is no such thing … and what they angst over is seasonal weather, anyway.

Reply to  PaulH
November 17, 2021 7:37 am

in 2010 The Great George Monbiot claimed in The Guardian that increased snow and ice was a sign of CAGW. This was too absurd even for the readers of that paper, who excoriated him in the comments.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Graemethecat
November 17, 2021 8:51 am

Monbiot had an article in the paper this week (15th Nov) where in a couple of paragraphs he waxes on about how improvements in battery performance etc can lead to lower EV prices and greater uptake and praises Norways use of taxation to encourage EV use and now over 50% of its new car sales are EVs.

Then over the page he castigates the amount of mining that is required to supply all the minerals needed to produce the EVs and their batteries and the associated destruction of the environment and pollution etc!

Talk about split personality.

Reply to  Dave Andrews
November 19, 2021 2:38 am

Magical and wishful thinking are hallmarks of Progressives like Moonbat.

November 16, 2021 10:19 am

It sounds like perfect conditions for Professor Chris Turney to take another research ship to the North Pole.


Richard Page
Reply to  RicDre
November 16, 2021 10:44 am

I thought he preferred to get stuck in Antarctic ice?

Reply to  Richard Page
November 16, 2021 2:27 pm

Yes he did, but he probably thought he was heading for the Arctic.

“Compass? We doan need no stinkin’ compass!”

Ireneusz Palmowski
November 16, 2021 10:23 am

This will be a very difficult task.comment image
The Kara Sea and the Chukchi Sea are freezing fast.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
November 16, 2021 11:35 am

The Arc 7 icebreaking LNG carriers can deal with 2m of ice, but of course it slows their progress.

AGW is Not Science
November 16, 2021 10:38 am

Yeah but…earlier freezes are “consistent with” global warming. Just like heavier snowfalls. /sarc

John Tillman
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
November 16, 2021 11:23 am

Floods and drought, too much rain and too little. All our fault.

Reply to  John Tillman
November 16, 2021 8:46 pm

Worse yet is Extreme Average weather. We’re all gonna die!

Bryan A
Reply to  H.R.
November 17, 2021 12:57 pm

Within the next 60 years (2080) 80% of the people alive right now are gonna die…
Likely from Old Age

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  H.R.
November 17, 2021 12:58 pm

Global Milding…run for your life!

John Hultquist
November 16, 2021 10:44 am

This site . . .
MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic

. . . does not show many ships (20) in the East Siberian Sea; more like 4.
Kara and Barents Seas have many.
I’ll wait for someone else with experience in these matters to straighten this out.

Rob Cole
Reply to  John Hultquist
November 16, 2021 11:27 am

Regular AIS only has a range of 40 nautical miles. In remote areas ships won’t be visible on this site unless they have SAT-AIS.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  John Hultquist
November 16, 2021 12:10 pm

The latest information from the Russian Northern Route Administration can be found here:


В ДРЕЙФЕ ВО ЛЬДУ means drifting in ice – quite a few vessels. You can spot the convoys by groups with similar Eastings (BOCT). The icebreaker Vaigach (ВАЙГАЧ) appears to have been making light of the ice at 7 knots.

Krishna Gans
Reply to  John Hultquist
November 16, 2021 1:21 pm

Griff will tell you 😀

John Hultquist
Reply to  Krishna Gans
November 16, 2021 5:55 pm

Thanks for this smile, and to the others also.

November 16, 2021 10:57 am

Does John Kerry know this?

Reply to  starzmom
November 16, 2021 11:25 am

Thought he hails from Kara Sea… Maybe something lost in his assault on the English language|?

Seamus O Toole
Reply to  starzmom
November 16, 2021 11:34 am

John Kerry knows nothing about climate change.

Ron Long
Reply to  Seamus O Toole
November 16, 2021 11:46 am

He likes to eat ketchup though.

Reply to  Ron Long
November 16, 2021 7:17 pm

Cyborgs don’t eat ketchup

Reply to  Seamus O Toole
November 16, 2021 2:30 pm

Your last 3 words are superfluous.
John Kerry knows nothing.

Geoffrey Williams
Reply to  starzmom
November 16, 2021 12:35 pm

John Kerry doesn’t know north from south nor his arse from hed . .

It doesn't add up...
November 16, 2021 11:19 am

The Vladimir Rusanov is just one of several Acr 7 class LNG carriers that have been plying the Arctic route from the Sabetta location of the Yamal LNG facility to the Far East, with most cargoes going to China.

There are several consequences of the icing up. Obviously the route will close down, and tankers stuck in it will be delayed reaching Sabetta. On the other hand, Yamal cargoes will now take the routes to European ports where they will certainly discharge before scurrying back to cover for trapped ships. This is already happening. Whether those cargoes are reloaded for Far East destinations (as has been happening), or whether we will see them increase European supply with cargoes from Qatar going East instead of criss-crossing in Suez and the Med as has been happening recently remains to be seen.

However, even if they are discharged and not reloaded on normal LNG vessels for onward journeys that does not mean they would offer immediate relief to tight European gas markets. It transpires that Gazprom has signed up significant quantities of gas storage across Europe, which it is seeking to fill rather than release gas to the market. Of course, for Yamal LNG they would have to buy the cargoes, as Gazprom has no direct stake in the venture, owned by NOVATEK (50.1%), TOTAL (20%), CNPC (20%) and Silk Road Fund (9.9%). But Novatek is unlikely to go against any wishes expressed by Gazprom.

AFAICS trapped vessels include Christophe de Margerie, Boris Vilkitsky (recently departed Incheon, Korea so it could divert via Suez), and Rudolf Samoylovich.

Vladimir Vize is currently discharging at Grain, UK (possibly the first Russian gas since June), and other vessels are plying to Rotterdam, Zeebrugge and Montoir: all these ports are capable of reloads. The Chinese owned “Ursa Major” Arc 7 vessels aren’t risking the Northern route, but are trading into China via Suez.

November 16, 2021 11:36 am

Notice NordStream 2 uses underwater PIPES, not LNG sea cargo from the US!
I wonder why?
Meanwhile Germany


just stopped NordStream 2 certification – bad case of bureaucratic ice I would say! Not even a nuclear ice breaker could budge this desk-hugging bureaucracy! Biden still hopes to sell US LNG with the Greens in-sync?
Anyway voters at the pump might wake from slumber?

The sleep of Reason breeds monsters, and monster energy bills!

Reply to  bonbon
November 16, 2021 12:46 pm

No gas? Let them use electric heating. And eat cake.

November 16, 2021 11:50 am

Oh yes! 2021 is colder than 2020 and 2019, and its sea ice extent in the Arctic is luckily higher than the mean of 2016-2020:

comment image

We will see if 2021 is the prelude to the comeback of a modest Cooling:

comment image

but alas, I’m not sure when I look at the chart above 🙁

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Bindidon
November 16, 2021 12:19 pm

We’re already above 10 Wadhams this year. Stopping the chart in September is highly misleading.


Reply to  It doesn't add up...
November 16, 2021 12:57 pm

People like you find always a way to criticize.

What I have shown is HadISST ICE, which is a huge 1 degree data set, with a longer update delay.

The reason to show Hadley Centre’s data was that it reaches far behind the satellite data, allowing us to compare successive 30-year averages and to look where we are right now.

You want the most recent data? No problem! Here is the stuff including yesterday Nov 15 (in anomaly for because the daily data then is way more legible):

comment image

Something more to say?

John Tillman
Reply to  Bindidon
November 16, 2021 1:13 pm

Check back in 2031. Arctic sea ice average for 2021-30 is liable to be higher than 2011-20. So far only one year in this decade, but the trend has been up since 2012, and flat since 2007, so odds are good.

The historical approximately 30-year natural, wax and wane cycle still rules.

Reply to  John Tillman
November 16, 2021 1:32 pm

” So far only one year in this decade, but the trend has been up since 2012, and flat since 2007, so odds are good. ”


Not the real trend was: what you talk about was only the half of the picture, namely the melting season.

You see that clearly with 2012: while it is known to everybody as the year with the highest melting in September, it had also a huge recovery season.

If you want to look at the real trend, you’d better consider the years as a whole thing, instead of cherry-picking a part of it.

Here is the sequence of the yearly averages, in Mkm²:

2019  10.05
2020  10.06
2016  10.13
16-20  10.15
2018  10.22
2012  10.30
2017  10.30
2021  10.40
2015  10.45
81-10  11.55

2021 of course keeps good above all years after 2015; but 2012 no longer is at the top of the list.

The same would hold for 2007.

Reply to  John Tillman
November 16, 2021 1:34 pm

” Arctic sea ice average for 2021-30 is liable to be higher than 2011-20. ”

Where did you get that from?

Some valuable source? Please: NOT TricksZone.

John Tillman
Reply to  Bindidon
November 16, 2021 2:00 pm

From available data and historical cycles.

As noted, trend since 2012 is up, and liable to continue. A single year datum from the current decade is also up. So that’s the way to bet.

CACA spewers extrapolated from decline since century high in 1979 to 2012 that there should be more downside. As real scientists predicted, that didn’t happen.

Real climatologists who have observed the 30 year cycle predicted more ice from 2012 into the 2040s. So far, their predictions have been borne out.

Reply to  John Tillman
November 16, 2021 2:37 pm

” From available data and historical cycles. ”

And I still await your valuable source…

” As noted, trend since 2012 is up… ”

No it isn’t, as shown above.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Bindidon
November 16, 2021 1:22 pm

Since you ask – yes. Your 60 month average should be centred 30 months earlier.

But please do not take that as being a major criticism. I understand the value of the longer historical context you provided in your various charts. But we also need to be up to date, as it seems that icing is progressing rapidly this year – the subject of the article.

Reply to  It doesn't add up...
November 16, 2021 1:53 pm

” Your 60 month average should be centred 30 months earlier. ”

Sorry, no.

This is the classical running mean provided by Excel and all their free copies. It is not centered (which, by the way, I very much regret).

Of course: anyone can generate a centered running mean by building an own running average in the spreadsheet.

But this has few in common with the running mean à la Excel, as you can see in the addendum:

comment image

It lacks all the finesse of Excel’s running mean.

Reply to  It doesn't add up...
November 16, 2021 2:39 pm

” But we also need to be up to date, as it seems that icing is progressing rapidly this year – the subject of the article. ”

To that of course I agree.

Krishna Gans
Reply to  Bindidon
November 16, 2021 1:46 pm

Daily anomalies 1978-act.

Reply to  Krishna Gans
November 16, 2021 2:02 pm

Anomalies? Expressed in which units? With respect to what?

Reply to  Krishna Gans
November 16, 2021 2:35 pm

Here is a chart of boreal and austral sea ice extent with monthly anomalies wrt the mean of 1981-2010, expressed in Mkm²:

comment image

Your daily chart should look quite similar to the red plot, shouldn’t it?

Reply to  Bindidon
November 16, 2021 7:19 pm

And yet the sea is sloooowly rising since the 1800. Magic CO2 indeed

Reply to  Derg
November 17, 2021 8:49 am

Archimedes asks you:

What does that have to do with sea ice?

Krishna Gans
Reply to  Bindidon
November 16, 2021 1:30 pm

What date your chart starts ?

Reply to  Krishna Gans
November 16, 2021 2:00 pm

Which chart? That of the daily superpositions for some years and periods?

comment image

If you mean that one, than your question makes no sense.

Jeffery P
November 16, 2021 12:10 pm

Can’t be right. Official science says the Arctic icesheet is melting. This is anti-environmental propaganda from counter revolutionary capitalist agitators.

November 16, 2021 12:17 pm

They could bring in Dr Chris Turney as an advisor…

Reply to  fretslider
November 16, 2021 2:38 pm

They did.
That’s why they’re now stuck in a world of white.

Walter Sobchak
November 16, 2021 12:20 pm

Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys. /sarc

Geoffrey Williams
November 16, 2021 12:30 pm

I do feel sorry for these ship captains stuck in their frozen wonderland.
I suppose they could always fly in some dog sleds and just head for land . .

John Tillman
Reply to  Geoffrey Williams
November 16, 2021 12:52 pm

Yet, back in the 1930s and ’40s, both Allied and Axis ships used the Northern Sea Route well into November, if not later.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  John Tillman
November 16, 2021 1:56 pm

Wrote about this in essay Northwest Passage in ebook Blowing Smoke. There is a quasi 60 year sine wave to annual Arctic ice. DMI August ice charts show summer ice decline from 1921-1939. Jensen made two NW Passage crossings (E and W) summers of 1941 and 1943. About the cyclic low. Sat ice measurements started about 1981, about cyclic high. So ~30 years later, or about 2010-2012, ice extent should start increasing again. And it has.
Never use a ruler to project < half a sine wave. Akasofu’s point in his 2010 Arctic ice paper. Yet IPCC has.

Curious George
Reply to  Rud Istvan
November 16, 2021 2:02 pm

Interpolate at will. Extrapolate at your own peril.

John Tillman
Reply to  Rud Istvan
November 16, 2021 2:30 pm

Of course they have, since it supports the antiscientific narrative.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Rud Istvan
November 16, 2021 5:33 pm

Wasn’t that Capt. Larsen who made those passages in the RCMP MV St. Roche?

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Rory Forbes
November 18, 2021 10:52 am

Yes. My bad for dis remembering.

Geoffrey Williams
November 16, 2021 12:51 pm

‘Artic ice freeze’ that confirms it ; down at Sydney harbour a few days ago and noticed the drop in sea level. We had some nice wine too . .

Joao Martins
November 16, 2021 1:05 pm

Not possible! Fake news!

We were told that, because climate change, the NE and NW Passages would be open and navigable all over the year!

November 16, 2021 2:24 pm

Some 20 ships are either stuck or struggling to sail, as waters in the East Siberia Sea froze earlier than in recent years”

Ohh Nooo!

Anybody we’ve heard about and love to mock or revile?

son of mulder
November 16, 2021 2:34 pm

The nuclear-powered Yamal and the diesel-powered Novorossiisk. Shame, why no solar and wind powered vessels in this time of need?

Reply to  son of mulder
November 16, 2021 3:50 pm

It gets dark in the Arctic this time of year.

Joao Martins
Reply to  MarkW
November 17, 2021 6:49 am

Don’t they have batteries?

November 16, 2021 2:57 pm

Reality, always screwing academia.

November 16, 2021 3:15 pm

Er, when Al gore and the other climate people say “Global warming” shouldn’t that included the whole globe? Or does climate change, means just certain parts of the globe will have different weather?

Reply to  Sunny
November 17, 2021 11:44 am

The warming is happening so fast it’s sucking the heat from the poles…

Geoffrey Williams
November 16, 2021 5:01 pm

I am reminded of Sir Ernest Shackleton’s expedition ship ‘The Endurance’ that in 1915 was crushed by pack ice in the Weddel Sea, Antartica. The ship was lost but all the crew returned home safely. Great story . .

November 16, 2021 5:23 pm

Maybe they can send Greta up there. That shrill of hers would probably break even the thickest of ice.

Reply to  HangZen
November 16, 2021 8:17 pm

Useful as a foghorn – blah blah blah blah

November 16, 2021 8:14 pm

The new cooling cycle beginning was announced by scientists in the USSR late in the 1960s, Time magazine featured this prediction mid-1970s however by the mid 1980s the climate warming hoax replaced the cooling news.

Since that time Russia has invested in several ice breaker ships including at least one natural gas carrier built in South Korea.

Climate believer
November 17, 2021 2:56 am

I’m having a party at the weekend, anybody know any good “climate” jokes to help break the ice.

….Ba dam cha!

Joseph Zorzin
November 17, 2021 4:09 am

“….severe sea ice conditions have taken shippers by surprise…”

But, but…. the world is burning up! The UN and Michael Mann says so!

November 17, 2021 7:07 am

“Some 20 ships are either stuck or struggling to sail, as waters in the East Siberia Sea froze earlier than in recent years.” – article

Oh, wait – how can the sea freeze when the Earth is facing devastating warming???? How is this possible? (Must I add ‘sarc’ to that?)

This is interesting because when the timing changes for something that happens regularly – in this case, it’s early – it’s not necessarily indicative of a permanent change. If it continues to happen, well…. could it be Climate Changing to Cold?

Just askin’. My cat wants to add this to her list of homework subjects.

November 17, 2021 8:53 am

“The nuclear-powered Yamal”

could not help but to laugh…

Albert Paquette
November 29, 2021 8:12 am

Any wind powered ice breakers?

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