Finally! “North Pole soon to be ice free in summer” – Why did it take so long?

Guest “post that doesn’t mention ChiCom-19” by David Middleton

APRIL 20, 2020

North Pole soon to be ice free in summer
by University of Hamburg

The Arctic Ocean in summer will very likely be ice free before 2050, at least temporarily. The efficacy of climate-protection measures will determine how often and for how long. These are the results of a new research study involving 21 research institutes from around the world…

[…]

Phys Org

2050? What happened to 2014?

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M__ S__
April 21, 2020 2:03 pm

About 40 years ago, I was reading that we would be using nuclear fusion within 50 years. I suspect the predicted time till we are doing so is still 50 years in the future.

Watcher of the road
Reply to  M__ S__
April 21, 2020 2:42 pm

Fusion energy is the power of the future, and it will always be so.

GeorgeInSanDiego
Reply to  Watcher of the road
April 22, 2020 9:50 am

Much as hydrogen cars will perpetually just a decade away.

GeorgeInSanDiego
Reply to  GeorgeInSanDiego
April 22, 2020 9:51 am

*be

Patrick
Reply to  M__ S__
April 21, 2020 2:47 pm

Depends. There’s a couple of reactor prototypes to go online in 2024, and I am not referring to the multi-billion dollar monstrosity in France.

Beeze
Reply to  M__ S__
April 21, 2020 3:18 pm

I recall seeing that when that prediction was made it came with different tiers for different spending levels, and the actual spending level that materialized was labelled “fusion never” or something.

Alan McIntire
Reply to  M__ S__
April 21, 2020 3:40 pm

Yeah, when I was a teenager I read science fiction stories predicting nuclear fusion in the foreseeable future. Over 50 years later, I’m still waiting,

H.R.
Reply to  Alan McIntire
April 21, 2020 5:41 pm

Yeah, but at least you have that flying car in your garage.

Oh, wait…

brians356
Reply to  M__ S__
April 21, 2020 4:31 pm

Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

Rod Evans
Reply to  brians356
April 22, 2020 12:35 am

Predictions about the past seem to be difficult too, judging by the constant redefining of past temperatures, the effect hockey sticks can have on climate and who ever knew, dying at forty due to exhaustion from physical labour, was a good thing until the COGS informed us of such.

Bob in SeaTac
Reply to  M__ S__
April 21, 2020 5:01 pm

When I was a senior in high school in 1955, nuclear fusion was being touted at 25 years away. Since then, it has gotten farther and farther away.

Jim G
Reply to  Bob in SeaTac
April 22, 2020 5:59 pm

Sadly, in that day they could not imagine that fellow countrymen would work to thwart cheap energy and the prosperity of the nation.

StefanL
Reply to  M__ S__
April 21, 2020 10:47 pm

Like the sign in the pub that says: “Free beer tomorrow”.

April 21, 2020 2:04 pm

The Arctic Ocean in summer will very likely be ice free before 2050, <b<at least temporarily.
That are good news, never heard before, 😀 😀 😀
Th’are teasing, no ?

John (Leo) Morgan
Reply to  Krishna Gans
April 23, 2020 5:05 am

Exposing untold mineral wealth, and untapped oil fields as well as opening shipping lanes to Russia and the rest of the world?
If it happens, it’ll be brilliant news!

PureAbsolute
April 21, 2020 2:06 pm

21 Reseasrch Institutes — is that where the 97% live?

Gerry,England
Reply to  PureAbsolute
April 22, 2020 5:53 am

Quantity not quality I suspect. It is the same with papers that have nearly 20 authors which include a couple of ‘star’ names who have probably done nothing other say yes when asked if their names can be included.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Gerry,England
April 22, 2020 6:33 am

What is it Willis E. has said, something to the effect that “The quality of a research paper is inversely proportional to the square of the number of names on the paper”?

yirgach
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
April 22, 2020 7:20 am

That axiom may be applied to anything human built.

Robert of Texas
April 21, 2020 2:07 pm

I will repeat this again… Who cares if the North Pole is ice free? It means more access to resources, food, fewer icebergs, and doesn’t raise the sea level one inch. The polar bears, closely related to the brown bears, will do just fine feasting on fish and berries while they are not slaughtering baby seals along the coast.

Change is inevitable, and usually good or neutral. It does mean that mankind has to adapt…if you build a village on a coast that is eroding, you will need to move your village. This wasn’t a problem when villages were temporary and portable, but now that people use “permanent” dwellings, it presents a new problem.

The make-believe North Pole penguin can sit on the pebble strewn beach drinking a coke with his lovable friendly (voracious eat anything that moves) fluffy polar bear friends.

Photios
Reply to  Robert of Texas
April 21, 2020 2:49 pm

“…eat anything that moves”?

No. Eat anything they can catch…

M__ S__
Reply to  Photios
April 21, 2020 6:58 pm

Yes, if it moves in the north it may wind up eating you.

czechlist
Reply to  Photios
April 22, 2020 4:50 pm

And if one happens to “catch” a dumpster, or raid a landfill, the greenies claim they are starving.
They never acknowledge an increased level of competition for natural resources – or just an easy meal. Gotta luv those pic a nic baskets!

Ron Long
Reply to  Robert of Texas
April 21, 2020 4:05 pm

Robert of Texas, I am very pleased that you referenced the penguin in the North Pole header, because now it’s official: David Middleton is worse than I am. Wait a minute, I thought Texans were supposed to stick together, like “Remember the Alamo”? North Pole ice is floating and its melting will not change sea level and polar bears will eat pretty much whatever they want, so no pasa nada.

Editor
Reply to  Ron Long
April 21, 2020 5:43 pm

Ron, as a former Texan let me try to come to David’s defense: I suspect that he was making fun of the photoshopped image from a 2016 DailyKos article, the image of which DailyKos has since removed:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/25/1601292/-No-time-to-chill-on-climate-change-North-Pole-heats-up-to-36-degrees-above-normal?detail=facebook

But the image still remains in the follow-up comments on twitter:
https://twitter.com/dailykos/status/802254083826421760

Stay safe and healthy,
Bob,

Editor
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
April 21, 2020 5:51 pm

PS: Here’s a link to Anthony’s 2016 post about that fiasco:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/11/29/in-one-picture-why-you-shouldnt-get-your-climate-information-from-the-dailykos/

Stay safe and healthy, ALL.

Bob

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Ron Long
April 22, 2020 7:20 pm

Ron, not so fast on Arctic penguins. Do you know about the Great Auk. It is of the family penguinnis and went extinct in the 19th century. They even know the names of the two fellows who killed the last one (they were hunted for food). Moreover, the Antarctic Penguines when first sighted by European sailors thought they were related and gave them the name.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_auk

Phil.
Reply to  Gary Pearse
April 26, 2020 5:22 am

Indeed, the name probably originated as the Welsh, pen gwyn, or white head.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Robert of Texas
April 21, 2020 7:43 pm

“I will repeat this again… Who cares if the North Pole is ice free?”

Exactly. I post this all the time in sea ice threads. Why does it matter?

Now, it WOULD matter if sea ice was growing and growing. That would definitely cause problems. It will, eventually, but for now, we should rejoice in the lack of sea ice. Much like the rejoicing after eating Robin’s Minstrels.

Reginald Vernon Reynolds
Reply to  Robert of Texas
April 22, 2020 5:09 am

The Arctic was ice free in the summer of 1817. Read Barrow’s Boys which tells the story of Arctic exploration by the British.

rbabcock
April 21, 2020 2:07 pm

However, the new study finds that Arctic summer sea ice also disappears occasionally if CO2 emissions are rapidly reduced.

So, there we have it! Damned if we do and damned if we don’t.

April 21, 2020 2:10 pm
Reply to  Zoe Phin
April 21, 2020 2:16 pm

May Mimas help against polar ice melting ? Just curious.
Any idea ? 😀

flynn
Reply to  Zoe Phin
April 21, 2020 3:29 pm

impressive shell script skills over there …

Phil Rae
Reply to  Zoe Phin
April 22, 2020 12:58 am

Zoe……what about tidal forces? It’s theorised that some satellites of the gas giants are probably heated by gravitational forces due to their proximity to the host planet.

You could call that geothermal energy, perhaps, although its origin would depend on mechanisms that are not relevant to the Earth.

Anyway, just asking…..thanks!

Jay Willis
Reply to  Phil Rae
April 22, 2020 3:44 am

Why not relevant on Earth. We have tidal forces from the moon and sun, they are well understood, they must cause some warming. I wonder how much.

Reply to  Phil Rae
April 22, 2020 10:44 am

Mimas and Enceladus have different heat patterns, suggesting it’s internal, not external.

April 21, 2020 2:13 pm

Isn’t the AMO switching into cool mode soon ?

Richard M
Reply to  Krishna Gans
April 21, 2020 8:21 pm

All depends on your definition of soon. The problem was the Pinatubo eruption was around the same time as when the AMO last switched modes. So, it is difficult to determine the timing. My guess is sometime in the early 2020s.

In addition, it is possible the PDO could flip back to negative soon as well. My guess there is 2022.

We could see both ocean cycles go negative at the same time as another weak solar cycle. That should give us a lot more information on natural cycles.

James R Clarke
Reply to  Richard M
April 22, 2020 1:54 am

Exactly! My prediction is that by 2050 the Arctic will be totally frozen over with ‘record’ sea ice extent, and ‘scientists’ and the news media will be hyping the new ice age…again!

I would gladly bet my annual budget against the annual budget of the 21 research institutes that the trend in Arctic sea ice will be positive over the next 30 years, no matter what the trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration is.

John V. Wright
April 21, 2020 2:15 pm

According to Andy May’s article a few months back, the earth has only had ice caps at the poles for about 9% of the last 500 million years. Needless to say, it is not possible to access this information on the BBC…

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  David Middleton
April 21, 2020 3:17 pm

David
Would 18% be a two-bit high?

commieBob
April 21, 2020 2:18 pm

The last words in the video clip:

We will find out.

Indeed.

Why do we care if the arctic is ice free for some summer months? The evidence is that the Arctic has been ice free before during the Holocene. link Apparently, the Polar Bears didn’t go extinct because of that.

Reply to  commieBob
April 21, 2020 2:34 pm

“Why do we care if the arctic is ice free for some summer months?”

Great question. What they say is that it’s a positive feedback thing that will accelerate global warming that will melt the permafrost and then when the meethane comes out it’s all over for us OMG OMG.

It’s a weird obsession.

https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/18/the-ice-free-arctic-obsession-of-agw/

Latitude
Reply to  commieBob
April 21, 2020 5:41 pm

One time I asked Julienne at the NSIDC what “ice free’ meant…
..she told me that anything less than 1 million km/sq would be ice free

I told her that’s the size of Egypt….and over twice the size of California..that’s a lot of ice to be “ice free”

I wonder what the University of Hamburg considers “ice free”

sendergreen
Reply to  Latitude
April 21, 2020 6:47 pm

It’s good for Highland Park, and Glenmorangie to be ice free.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Latitude
April 22, 2020 4:30 am

Imagine if Coke said they had a “sugar free” version of their soda and it was found to have sugar in it. They would be hit with false advertising and fraud charges, then be prohibited from making that claim again for that product.

sagi
Reply to  Latitude
April 27, 2020 3:00 pm

When the ozone layer at the South Pole drops below 220 Dobson units, they’ve called it a ‘hole” because it sounds scarier. Few people ask what a “hole” really means.

Rises back to 400-500 Dobson units most summers, and back down to scary”hole” values most winters.

Probably always has.

Also, an “ice-free” North Pole sounds scarier than a million square kilometers.

And, as with ozone, it’s easier than telling the truth.

Clay Sanborn
April 21, 2020 2:19 pm

I can play that game too. Before 2050, Christ will come to Rapture His church, those that are dead in Christ first, then the living, both, will meet Him physically in the air. Those that are left behind are in big trouble.
Of course NO ONE, except the Father, knows when Jesus will return, ergo, I choose 2050 because I and many of my critics will be dead by then. It’s easy to forecast something well into the future. Don’t believe anyone that does, including me.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Clay Sanborn
April 21, 2020 7:48 pm

So what’s Jesus been doing all this time? Playing shuffleboard?

More fairy tale nonsense.

sycomputing
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
April 21, 2020 9:00 pm

I’ve the desire to mercilessly mock you for your wholly avoidable, and thus just as completely bewildering misinterpretation of the man’s comment here.

But I won’t. It’s just too sad.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  sycomputing
April 22, 2020 8:10 am

You’re obviously unfamiliar with Clay’s posts.

Anyway, SYH (still haven’t figured that out, have you smart guy?)

sycomputing
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
April 23, 2020 12:44 pm

SYH (still haven’t figured that out, have you smart guy?)

Dangit! No . . . why’d you have to remind me?!? I almost had it licked.

Warum quälst du mich? It’s not like I follow you around commenting on your commentary or anything . . .

sycomputing
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
April 23, 2020 1:59 pm

Oh and . . .

smart guy

. . . your words, not mine!

🙂

MarkW
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
April 22, 2020 8:08 am

It really is sad how atheists feel the need to denigrate any mention of religion. Even when it really isn’t a mention of religion.

Since you are so convinced that God doesn’t exist. You must have proof. Please provide such proof.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  MarkW
April 22, 2020 8:11 am

Prove a negative? Right. How about some proof that he does exist.

Megs
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
April 22, 2020 4:25 pm

Jeff I suspect that Clay’s comment is more about the religion that is ‘CAGW’. In regard to the deep seated beliefs that they hold, that even refuting facts will not shake.

There are Christians who, as with CAGW, have been predicting the end of the earth for almost as long as each other. It was an analogy, the two equate.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Megs
April 23, 2020 8:58 am

Indeed, Megs. I knew that’s what he was referring to. But he fervently believes the rapture nonsense as well.

sendergreen
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
April 23, 2020 1:14 pm

Jeff Alberts says “Indeed, Megs. I knew that’s what he was referring to. But he fervently believes the rapture nonsense as well.”

When I’m gone
When I’m gone
You’re gonna miss me when I’m gone
You’re gonna miss me by my hair
You’re gonna miss me everywhere, oh
You’re gonna miss me when I’m gone : )

Curious George
April 21, 2020 2:26 pm

We are not religious enough, or we would know that it has already happened. Pope Francis: Who “remembers that 18 months ago a boat could cross the North Pole because the glaciers had all melted?”

Joel O'Bryan
April 21, 2020 2:31 pm

“As expected, Arctic sea ice disappeared quickly in summer in these simulations. “

Ya’ gotta love the use of past tense voice in this framing of a futurecast simulation to dupe the naive reader into a belief it is a fixed reality.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 21, 2020 2:34 pm

I should add it is also the ‘tell” of the deception employed. IOW, they got the output result they expected from a programmed computer simulation. This is the very definition of Pseudoscience.

Loydo
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 21, 2020 3:18 pm

…and if it goes ice-free some time before that: “see how inaccurate models are?”

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  Loydo
April 21, 2020 4:18 pm

The high priest of an ice free Arctic, a fellow named Peter Wadhams, reset the goal posts a few years back.
Ice free is defined as under 1 million sq. km., so says he.
Thus, we have a new universal standard unit, namely “The Wadham.”
If Peter lives long enough, likely he will change this to 2 million sq. km.
When activists with climate change syndrome (CCS) see things are not going their way, they just make up schist.

Loydo
Reply to  John F. Hultquist
April 21, 2020 5:18 pm

Peter Wadhams led over 40 expeditions to the Arctic, so I don’t know if you should dismiss him so lightly. Have you been there?

sendergreen
Reply to  Loydo
April 21, 2020 6:32 pm

I assume he didn’t swim there …. : )

MarkW
Reply to  John F. Hultquist
April 21, 2020 5:27 pm

Appeal to authority.

We don’t have to go there. We have data. Doesn’t matter how many times he’s been to the arctic, if his opinion don’t square with the data, then the data wins.

The data doesn’t show the arctic melting away. Yes, ice is a bit less than it was 30 years ago. However there is more ice today than there was 50 years ago. Also the melting has been stopped for the last dozen years or so.

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  John F. Hultquist
April 21, 2020 5:33 pm

So leading expeditions to the Arctic makes Peter Wadhams a climate model expert?? Or is he just following what the other modeling experts are saying as they ignore satellite and other empirical climate data? Did Wadhams predict the July low temperature record in the NH would be broken in 2017 and again on July 4th of 2018?? (there I go again – using anecdotal data)
https://realclimatescience.com/2017/07/latest-from-the-greenland-meltdown/

Sweet Old Bob
Reply to  John F. Hultquist
April 21, 2020 5:53 pm

” Have you been there? ”
Yes Loydo , I have .
Does that make me an expert ?
😉

Gerald Machnee
Reply to  John F. Hultquist
April 21, 2020 6:24 pm

Loydo:
**Peter Wadhams led over 40 expeditions to the Arctic, so I don’t know if you should dismiss him so lightly. Have you been there?**
Yes, I have been there.
looks like he has not learned much.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  John F. Hultquist
April 21, 2020 8:32 pm

“Peter Wadhams led over 40 expeditions to the Arctic, so I don’t know if you should dismiss him so lightly.”

And he apparently didn’t learn one damn thing. He should have taken a few lessons from Carl Weyprecht, who led the Austro-Hungarian Polar Expedition of 1872-74.

Thousands of scientific observations were recorded (Weyprecht’s expedition), but afterwards he realized that all of the information amassed was of limited use. Weyprecht observed:

““But whatever interest all these observations may possess, they do not possess that scientific value, even supported by a long column of figures, which under other circumstances might have been the case. They only furnish us with a picture of the extreme effects of the forces of Nature in the Arctic regions, but leave us completely in the dark with respect to their causes.

source: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-zone/ipy-1/History.htm

Prof Wadhams is completely in dark about the causes of Arctic sea ice variations. And apparently he likes it that way. Happy in his bliss of ignorance is he.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  John F. Hultquist
April 21, 2020 11:34 pm

“Loydo April 21, 2020 at 5:18 pm”

How many people, scientists, whathaveyou, have never been to the GBR and still say huge chunks of it are dying?

John Endicott
Reply to  John F. Hultquist
April 22, 2020 6:58 am

Peter Wadhams led over 40 expeditions to the Arctic, so I don’t know if you should dismiss him so lightly. Have you been there?

Logic fail (appeal to authority). You don’t need to go somewhere to make scientific observations based on scientific data. Most astrophysicist have never been in space, yet they can and do talk about space phenomena. Not a single person alive (or dead) on this planet of ours has ever been to Mars or Venus, yet we know and discuss a lot about our celestial neighbors. And being somewhere doesn’t make ones opinion any more correct than anyone else’s.

Lots of people have been to the grand canyon, doesn’t mean you have to treat little Billy who went there with his family last summer as an expert on all things Grand Canyon or his wild ideas about it’s formation as the result of digging by an army of slaves by order of Emperor Palpatine during the Clone Wars as something worth listening to just because “he’s been there, have you?”

Bottom line: science and scientific data trumps opinion, even the opinion of someone who has “been somewhere” related to that opinion. Everyone has an opinion, having gone somewhere (or not gone somewhere) does not make that opinion any better or worse.

Loydo
Reply to  Loydo
April 21, 2020 9:26 pm

Yeah its all over the place. Who could possibly guess where this is heading? Maybe its dropped a bit since the 80s, but gee, maybe its up a bit, hard to say where it.
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png

Editor
Reply to  Loydo
April 21, 2020 10:37 pm

Loydo,

Your chart shows that it stopped declining after 2007, which factual reality warmists/alarmists continually ignore.

You going to ignore it too?

Loydo
Reply to  Loydo
April 22, 2020 1:48 am

If that is all you see when you look at that chart tommy you have no grounds to question anyone else’s grip on reality.

Reply to  Loydo
April 22, 2020 1:59 am

Loydo, a trend is a trend until the trend turns into opposite direction.

Loydo
Reply to  Loydo
April 22, 2020 2:30 am

Oh I know, its been growing like topsy since last year too.

MarkW
Reply to  Loydo
April 22, 2020 8:13 am

Like the rest of the trolls, loydo is only interested in data that supports her opinion.
The data that shows that ice levels were at record levels in the late 70’s and early 80’s don’t count. All that matters is that ice levels have dropped from those record levels.

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  Loydo
April 22, 2020 10:19 am

@ Sunsettommy “it stopped declining after 2007,”

That was the year strong winds and waves busted the ice arches (surface dams of ice) in the straits. Multi-year ice streamed south** to warmer waters, and melted. In fits and starts (episodically), multi-year ice will accumulated. Repeat.

**Lots of info on the web, including video. Use ‘ice arches’ as search string.

John Tillman
Reply to  Loydo
April 22, 2020 2:35 pm

Arctic sea ice summer minimum extent has been flat since 2007 and up since the record low of 2012. Annual fluctuations depend upon weather. The lowest years, ie 2007, 2012 and 2016, experienced August cyclones, two in the latter case. The wind scatters and piles up the floes, lowering the area with 15% ice cover.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Loydo
April 22, 2020 6:21 am

Why would an ice-free Arctic be a bad thing? It has happened many times in the recent past.

Nik
April 21, 2020 2:42 pm

Nuttin’ new. The SSN Skate surfaced in ice-free water at the NP March 17, 1959.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/26/ice-at-the-north-pole-in-1958-not-so-thick/

Bob in Castlemaine
Reply to  Nik
April 21, 2020 7:28 pm

But no doubt when, inevitably, the north pole once again becomes temporarily ice free in coming years it will be trumpeted by the climate alarm industry as incontrovertible evidence of global warming?

Phil.
Reply to  Nik
April 26, 2020 5:46 am

Not according to its captain, James Calvert, or to the photographs taken at the time.
As they searched for some thin ice to break through Calvert reports “But everywhere ice of 10 feet or more created a black ceiling on our icy world”.
Eventually they found a thinner patch and attempted to break through.
“Finally, about 4:30, our sail crunched into the ice where we wanted it. We watched the TV with anxious eyes: it showed us going through! The ice was heavier here than we had broken through before, but we were breaking it”.

comment image

ScienceABC123
April 21, 2020 2:55 pm

I wonder why they make a prediction 30 years out? Oh that’s right, their earlier predictions were only 5-10 years out and showed them to be frauds. No one will remember this prediction 30 years from now.

John in Cairns
April 21, 2020 2:56 pm

The north pole becomes ice free regularly anyway. Just as in MAY 1986 when three nuclear submarines,USS Hawksbill, USS Ray and USS Archerfish visited a large area of open water at the pole at the same time. The timing seems to depend on the extent of volcanicly heated water rising from the Gakkel Ridge seafloor spreading zone which extends across the Arctic Ocean close by. So, they may be right though their attribution may be off.

sendergreen
April 21, 2020 3:11 pm

In the last half million years there have been five brief interglacial warm periods. We are living in the last of those five. The others peaked with higher average temperatures than the earth of today. The north pole would have been Ice Free in summer for at least several hundred years at the peaks of those interglacials, several thousand years in the interglacial just before ours.

Regular warming and colding cycles happening in a world where humans were wearing animal skins, and making their tool by banging rocks against other rocks ? How could that happen ?

After 12,000 years of warm, people who could look at that cycle in our 2.7 million year Quaternary Ice Age … and still think the next era of world temperatures will be “hotter” … are missing something… celebrally.

Stephen Skinner
Reply to  sendergreen
April 21, 2020 4:05 pm

Quite

April 21, 2020 3:23 pm

The ice-free Arctic Ocean and functioning Fusion Power could be new scenes added to Samuel Beckett’s Waiting For Godot.

Laws of Nature
April 21, 2020 3:42 pm

I would like to comment two points,

First a paper from this February about possible causes for the strong arctic warming:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0677-4?proof=trueIn
“Our findings reveal a substantial contribution of ODS to recent Arctic warming..”
(ODS are the ozone killers.. non-CO2)
Any model which got these wrong is wrong about the arctic in my opinion

And Notz on Spiegel-Online (https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/klimawandel-in-der-arktis-das-eis-am-nordpol-ist-nicht-mehr-zu-retten-a-d923c467-e6ff-4e94-92c1-03fe20c20d1b):
“Doch bislang hätten Modelle die komplette Schmelze vor allem dann vorausgesagt, wenn man sie mit extremen Parametern gefüttert hätte”
Which google translates to:
“But so far, models would have predicted the complete melt especially if they had been fed with extreme parameters”
Basically, he is admitting that people like him practiced alarmism about the arctic warming in the past.
But now he isn´t!? Cry wolf, anyone?

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Laws of Nature
April 21, 2020 7:51 pm

What strong Arctic warming? There are so few temp stations in the arctic, it’s laughable.

Scissor
April 21, 2020 3:45 pm

Gore seems a lot like Hank Johnson.

Megs
Reply to  Scissor
April 21, 2020 4:33 pm

Scissor surely he’d been smoking something?

Very funny!

Scissor
Reply to  Megs
April 21, 2020 7:21 pm

Good stuff, I suppose.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Megs
April 22, 2020 11:15 pm

He certainly should have been smoking something. Sadly, he’s that dumb.

Megs
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
April 23, 2020 12:13 am

I reflected on my comment Jeff and feel I was a little flippant. Maybe he is suffering from the same affliction as Joe Biden. People must know that they’re not fit for the role that they’re in. It seems a cruel joke to me that they are simply puppets. I would have thought that there own families would seek to protect them from ridicule.

Petit_Barde
April 21, 2020 3:51 pm

Some of the Antarctic sea ice will compensate :
– look at the penguin on the iceberg gently journeying from South to North.

Murph
Reply to  Petit_Barde
April 21, 2020 4:55 pm

Also good to see the penguin practising social distancing, but it should probably have stayed home.

amirlach
April 21, 2020 3:55 pm

Maybe these idiots should look away from their Sim cLIEmate games and look at some actual data?
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/02/arctic-winter-temperatures-down-several-degrees-since-2016/

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Stephen Skinner
April 21, 2020 4:04 pm

Actually. So what if it completely melted in the Summer?

MarkW
Reply to  Stephen Skinner
April 21, 2020 5:29 pm

It would make shipping a lot cheaper, it would also open up the arctic region to the point where the resources up there would be a lot easier to get to.

WR104
April 21, 2020 4:31 pm

I’m pretty sure by 2030 the world will already be done…drought, flooding, extreme heat and increased poverty…per the UN. No one will be around to see anything in 2050.

Tom in Florida
April 21, 2020 4:31 pm

It doesn’t matter because the asteriod Apophis is going to hit Earth in 2036. So to hell with ice free arctic summers, COVID-19, alcohol free beer, diet soda, sugar free anything, skin tags and everything else. Party now and don’t worry about what we can’t change. We’re all goners anyway.

Earthling2
April 21, 2020 4:33 pm

When the North Pole is ice free in the winter, then maybe they are onto something.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Earthling2
April 21, 2020 8:52 pm

Impossible.
They’ll never be onto something.
More likely on something.

Murph
April 21, 2020 4:39 pm

I’ve developed a computer model that demonstrates that 100% of computer models return the result that the programmer desires. Admittedly I had to add a parameter to allow for adjustment of the programming skill of the developer, and another to allow for committee based consensus of the desired outcome, but the evidence is irrefutable.

Petit_Barde
Reply to  Murph
April 21, 2020 5:00 pm

Indecidable sentence, indecidable sentence, indecid …

Flight Level
April 21, 2020 5:11 pm

Note to self:
-Get a floatplane rating asap before all airports are submerged.

*implicit palmface*

As if we don’t have that many serious issues to figure out, here they come with the “Waterworld” sequel du jour…

Steven Mosher
April 21, 2020 6:21 pm

basically the same finding as Ar5

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Steven Mosher
April 21, 2020 7:53 pm

“basically the same finding as Ar5”

So equally clueless.

John Endicott
Reply to  Steven Mosher
April 22, 2020 6:39 am

“basically the same finding as Ar5”

In other words, just as crap and out of touch with reality as AR5. Not exactly a ringing endorsement there Mr drive-by.

Smart Rock
April 21, 2020 6:57 pm

Interesting that the RCP’s have been renamed “SSP Scenarios (shared socio-economic pathways)” I think it’s reasonable to assume that SSP5-8.5 (which their predictions are based on) is our old friend RCP 8.5. Its description has been changed from “business as usual” to “largely unchanged future CO2 emissions“. I suppose the names have been changed from the essentially meaningless “representative concentration pathways” to the equally meaningless but more pretentious-sounding “shared socio-economic pathways” to give the impression that they are doing something new and creative.

Climate science at work. What a waste.

trevor
April 21, 2020 6:59 pm

Totally disturbing this information. We must take care of our planet earth. in less than 30 years there will be no more ice in the Arctic, wow!

nw sage
April 21, 2020 7:09 pm

By 2050 –or 2070 — or 2090 — or maybe even 2040. Whatever, maybe whenever it might get warm enough for long enough. Or maybe not!

SAMURAI
April 21, 2020 7:55 pm

An ice-free Summer Arctic event is the last hobby horse the Left has been ridding hard for the past 30 years…

It’s hilarious to see this event is now predicted to happen in…..2050… I thought the “experts” said it was a done deal in 2012?

What’s an even more interesting phenomenon is the very rapid recovery of Antarctic sea ice this year….

A little off topic, but does anyone have any ideas of what’s happening in a 2,000km-long mixed narrow band of very cold and very warm SST anomalies off the coast of Nova Scotia that has been going on for many months?

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I can’t recall ever seeing anything like this.

Cheers.

Richard M
Reply to  SAMURAI
April 21, 2020 8:34 pm

The warm anomalies have been there for many years. Has always seemed strange to me. They seem to appear out of nowhere and lead to nowhere.

SAMURAI
Reply to  Richard M
April 22, 2020 8:29 am

Richard-san:

I understand the many large pockets of +5C SST temp anomalies are being caused by the Gulf Stream, but what’s perplexing are all the cold -3~-5C SST cold anomalies which are interspersed right next to these +5C SST anomalies.

It’s like huge volumes of deep cold ocean ocean water are being pumped into this 2,000 KM section of the Gulf Stream which I can’t recall ever seeing. It seems really bizarre.

David Joyce
Reply to  SAMURAI
April 21, 2020 8:58 pm

Seems like we’ve had a string of unusually strong (windy) storms with breakouts of arctic air this spring in New England. Don’t know if those could effect SST like that. Temps the usual roller coaster, but the wind seems stronger to me.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t52sLWCQwuztd7MSSJWgqN3-_RQiTIiW/view?usp=sharing

Patrick MJD
April 21, 2020 8:45 pm

Ice free? Yeah, that’s why Russia is building more, larger, ice breakers.

https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/russia-to-build-two-more-nuclear-icebreakers

yarpos
April 21, 2020 9:19 pm

Been ice fee before , what’s the big deal? Submarines surfaced there in the 50s, it waxes and wanes. Jeez get a grip.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  yarpos
April 21, 2020 11:31 pm

And the 80’s too.

GregK
April 21, 2020 9:48 pm

Loydo
“Peter Wadhams led over 40 expeditions to the Arctic, so I don’t know if you should dismiss him so lightly. Have you been there?

So what was he doing there ?
According to him the place would be ice free [Wadham definition] in summer by 2017 or 2018.

Hmnnn… 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/21/arctic-will-be-ice-free-in-summer-next-year
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/03/

April 21, 2020 9:55 pm

Omly it isn’t called ChiCom-19.
Oops, I did it again!

April 21, 2020 11:49 pm

When all the snow settles, it is Winter Ice that is of concern! Its demise can be calculated – but we’re talking about centuries into the future!

Loydo
April 22, 2020 1:56 am

Why winter ice and not summer?
How do you know its “centuries”?

MarkW
Reply to  Loydo
April 22, 2020 8:17 am

Why not?
How do you know it’s not minutes?

April 22, 2020 6:00 am

IMPORTANT:
This is probably a serious warning about what to expect from the nest IPCC report, since quote:
“The simulations used in this study are based on so-called SSP Scenarios (shared socio-economic pathways), which will also be used for the next IPCC report. Scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 are used to simulate a rapid reduction of future CO2 emissions, while scenario SSP5-8.5 is used to simulate largely unchanged future CO2 emissions. The study is based on simulations from the most recent generation of climate models, collected within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).

So what does that indicate about these “new SSP IPCC climate science simulations”?!

Shockingly enough, this SSP based study says that the Arctic summer ice will not only disappear at today’s CO2 levels, but even at “rapidly reduced emissions”(!), quote:

“The research team has analyzed recent results from 40 different climate models. Using these models, the researchers considered the future evolution of Arctic sea-ice cover in a scenario with high future CO2 emissions and little climate protection. As expected, Arctic sea ice disappeared quickly in summer in these simulations. However, the new study finds that Arctic summer sea ice also disappears occasionally if CO2 emissions are rapidly reduced.”

Lord have mercy.

Peter Roach
April 22, 2020 8:08 am

” the melting point of water rose…..”

Kiwi Gary
April 24, 2020 3:30 am

The Russians are being contrary again !! Not content with building a new fleet of large nuclear-powered icebreakers, one on trials, 2 fitting out, and 2 on order, they have let a design contract for 3 even bigger units capable of pushing through 4 metres of ice for delivery 2030-33. But then, Russians only live there. What would they know compared to a swag of professional schoolkids hunched over their computers in climate-controlled luxury ?

Phil.
April 26, 2020 7:20 am

Not according to its captain, James Calvert, or to the photographs taken at the time.
As they searched for some thin ice to break through Calvert reports “But everywhere ice of 10 feet or more created a black ceiling on our icy world”.
Eventually they found a thinner patch and attempted to break through.
“Finally, about 4:30, our sail crunched into the ice where we wanted it. We watched the TV with anxious eyes: it showed us going through! The ice was heavier here than we had broken through before, but we were breaking it”.

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