Finally! “North Pole soon to be ice free in summer” – Why did it take so long?

Guest “post that doesn’t mention ChiCom-19” by David Middleton

APRIL 20, 2020

North Pole soon to be ice free in summer
by University of Hamburg

The Arctic Ocean in summer will very likely be ice free before 2050, at least temporarily. The efficacy of climate-protection measures will determine how often and for how long. These are the results of a new research study involving 21 research institutes from around the world…

[…]

Phys Org

2050? What happened to 2014?

138 thoughts on “Finally! “North Pole soon to be ice free in summer” – Why did it take so long?

  1. About 40 years ago, I was reading that we would be using nuclear fusion within 50 years. I suspect the predicted time till we are doing so is still 50 years in the future.

    • Depends. There’s a couple of reactor prototypes to go online in 2024, and I am not referring to the multi-billion dollar monstrosity in France.

    • I recall seeing that when that prediction was made it came with different tiers for different spending levels, and the actual spending level that materialized was labelled “fusion never” or something.

    • Yeah, when I was a teenager I read science fiction stories predicting nuclear fusion in the foreseeable future. Over 50 years later, I’m still waiting,

      • Predictions about the past seem to be difficult too, judging by the constant redefining of past temperatures, the effect hockey sticks can have on climate and who ever knew, dying at forty due to exhaustion from physical labour, was a good thing until the COGS informed us of such.

    • When I was a senior in high school in 1955, nuclear fusion was being touted at 25 years away. Since then, it has gotten farther and farther away.

      • Sadly, in that day they could not imagine that fellow countrymen would work to thwart cheap energy and the prosperity of the nation.

  2. The Arctic Ocean in summer will very likely be ice free before 2050, <b<at least temporarily.
    That are good news, never heard before, 😀 😀 😀
    Th’are teasing, no ?

    • Exposing untold mineral wealth, and untapped oil fields as well as opening shipping lanes to Russia and the rest of the world?
      If it happens, it’ll be brilliant news!

    • Quantity not quality I suspect. It is the same with papers that have nearly 20 authors which include a couple of ‘star’ names who have probably done nothing other say yes when asked if their names can be included.

      • What is it Willis E. has said, something to the effect that “The quality of a research paper is inversely proportional to the square of the number of names on the paper”?

  3. I will repeat this again… Who cares if the North Pole is ice free? It means more access to resources, food, fewer icebergs, and doesn’t raise the sea level one inch. The polar bears, closely related to the brown bears, will do just fine feasting on fish and berries while they are not slaughtering baby seals along the coast.

    Change is inevitable, and usually good or neutral. It does mean that mankind has to adapt…if you build a village on a coast that is eroding, you will need to move your village. This wasn’t a problem when villages were temporary and portable, but now that people use “permanent” dwellings, it presents a new problem.

    The make-believe North Pole penguin can sit on the pebble strewn beach drinking a coke with his lovable friendly (voracious eat anything that moves) fluffy polar bear friends.

  4. However, the new study finds that Arctic summer sea ice also disappears occasionally if CO2 emissions are rapidly reduced.

    So, there we have it! Damned if we do and damned if we don’t.

    • Zoe……what about tidal forces? It’s theorised that some satellites of the gas giants are probably heated by gravitational forces due to their proximity to the host planet.

      You could call that geothermal energy, perhaps, although its origin would depend on mechanisms that are not relevant to the Earth.

      Anyway, just asking…..thanks!

      • Why not relevant on Earth. We have tidal forces from the moon and sun, they are well understood, they must cause some warming. I wonder how much.

    • All depends on your definition of soon. The problem was the Pinatubo eruption was around the same time as when the AMO last switched modes. So, it is difficult to determine the timing. My guess is sometime in the early 2020s.

      In addition, it is possible the PDO could flip back to negative soon as well. My guess there is 2022.

      We could see both ocean cycles go negative at the same time as another weak solar cycle. That should give us a lot more information on natural cycles.

      • Exactly! My prediction is that by 2050 the Arctic will be totally frozen over with ‘record’ sea ice extent, and ‘scientists’ and the news media will be hyping the new ice age…again!

        I would gladly bet my annual budget against the annual budget of the 21 research institutes that the trend in Arctic sea ice will be positive over the next 30 years, no matter what the trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration is.

  5. According to Andy May’s article a few months back, the earth has only had ice caps at the poles for about 9% of the last 500 million years. Needless to say, it is not possible to access this information on the BBC…

  6. The last words in the video clip:

    We will find out.

    Indeed.

    Why do we care if the arctic is ice free for some summer months? The evidence is that the Arctic has been ice free before during the Holocene. link Apparently, the Polar Bears didn’t go extinct because of that.

    • One time I asked Julienne at the NSIDC what “ice free’ meant…
      ..she told me that anything less than 1 million km/sq would be ice free

      I told her that’s the size of Egypt….and over twice the size of California..that’s a lot of ice to be “ice free”

      I wonder what the University of Hamburg considers “ice free”

      • Imagine if Coke said they had a “sugar free” version of their soda and it was found to have sugar in it. They would be hit with false advertising and fraud charges, then be prohibited from making that claim again for that product.

      • When the ozone layer at the South Pole drops below 220 Dobson units, they’ve called it a ‘hole” because it sounds scarier. Few people ask what a “hole” really means.

        Rises back to 400-500 Dobson units most summers, and back down to scary”hole” values most winters.

        Probably always has.

        Also, an “ice-free” North Pole sounds scarier than a million square kilometers.

        And, as with ozone, it’s easier than telling the truth.

  7. I can play that game too. Before 2050, Christ will come to Rapture His church, those that are dead in Christ first, then the living, both, will meet Him physically in the air. Those that are left behind are in big trouble.
    Of course NO ONE, except the Father, knows when Jesus will return, ergo, I choose 2050 because I and many of my critics will be dead by then. It’s easy to forecast something well into the future. Don’t believe anyone that does, including me.

    • So what’s Jesus been doing all this time? Playing shuffleboard?

      More fairy tale nonsense.

      • I’ve the desire to mercilessly mock you for your wholly avoidable, and thus just as completely bewildering misinterpretation of the man’s comment here.

        But I won’t. It’s just too sad.

        • You’re obviously unfamiliar with Clay’s posts.

          Anyway, SYH (still haven’t figured that out, have you smart guy?)

          • SYH (still haven’t figured that out, have you smart guy?)

            Dangit! No . . . why’d you have to remind me?!? I almost had it licked.

            Warum quälst du mich? It’s not like I follow you around commenting on your commentary or anything . . .

      • It really is sad how atheists feel the need to denigrate any mention of religion. Even when it really isn’t a mention of religion.

        Since you are so convinced that God doesn’t exist. You must have proof. Please provide such proof.

      • Jeff I suspect that Clay’s comment is more about the religion that is ‘CAGW’. In regard to the deep seated beliefs that they hold, that even refuting facts will not shake.

        There are Christians who, as with CAGW, have been predicting the end of the earth for almost as long as each other. It was an analogy, the two equate.

        • Indeed, Megs. I knew that’s what he was referring to. But he fervently believes the rapture nonsense as well.

          • Jeff Alberts says “Indeed, Megs. I knew that’s what he was referring to. But he fervently believes the rapture nonsense as well.”

            When I’m gone
            When I’m gone
            You’re gonna miss me when I’m gone
            You’re gonna miss me by my hair
            You’re gonna miss me everywhere, oh
            You’re gonna miss me when I’m gone : )

  8. We are not religious enough, or we would know that it has already happened. Pope Francis: Who “remembers that 18 months ago a boat could cross the North Pole because the glaciers had all melted?”

  9. “As expected, Arctic sea ice disappeared quickly in summer in these simulations. “

    Ya’ gotta love the use of past tense voice in this framing of a futurecast simulation to dupe the naive reader into a belief it is a fixed reality.

    • I should add it is also the ‘tell” of the deception employed. IOW, they got the output result they expected from a programmed computer simulation. This is the very definition of Pseudoscience.

        • The high priest of an ice free Arctic, a fellow named Peter Wadhams, reset the goal posts a few years back.
          Ice free is defined as under 1 million sq. km., so says he.
          Thus, we have a new universal standard unit, namely “The Wadham.”
          If Peter lives long enough, likely he will change this to 2 million sq. km.
          When activists with climate change syndrome (CCS) see things are not going their way, they just make up schist.

          • Peter Wadhams led over 40 expeditions to the Arctic, so I don’t know if you should dismiss him so lightly. Have you been there?

          • Appeal to authority.

            We don’t have to go there. We have data. Doesn’t matter how many times he’s been to the arctic, if his opinion don’t square with the data, then the data wins.

            The data doesn’t show the arctic melting away. Yes, ice is a bit less than it was 30 years ago. However there is more ice today than there was 50 years ago. Also the melting has been stopped for the last dozen years or so.

          • Loydo:
            **Peter Wadhams led over 40 expeditions to the Arctic, so I don’t know if you should dismiss him so lightly. Have you been there?**
            Yes, I have been there.
            looks like he has not learned much.

          • “Peter Wadhams led over 40 expeditions to the Arctic, so I don’t know if you should dismiss him so lightly.”

            And he apparently didn’t learn one damn thing. He should have taken a few lessons from Carl Weyprecht, who led the Austro-Hungarian Polar Expedition of 1872-74.

            Thousands of scientific observations were recorded (Weyprecht’s expedition), but afterwards he realized that all of the information amassed was of limited use. Weyprecht observed:

            ““But whatever interest all these observations may possess, they do not possess that scientific value, even supported by a long column of figures, which under other circumstances might have been the case. They only furnish us with a picture of the extreme effects of the forces of Nature in the Arctic regions, but leave us completely in the dark with respect to their causes.

            source: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-zone/ipy-1/History.htm

            Prof Wadhams is completely in dark about the causes of Arctic sea ice variations. And apparently he likes it that way. Happy in his bliss of ignorance is he.

          • “Loydo April 21, 2020 at 5:18 pm”

            How many people, scientists, whathaveyou, have never been to the GBR and still say huge chunks of it are dying?

          • Peter Wadhams led over 40 expeditions to the Arctic, so I don’t know if you should dismiss him so lightly. Have you been there?

            Logic fail (appeal to authority). You don’t need to go somewhere to make scientific observations based on scientific data. Most astrophysicist have never been in space, yet they can and do talk about space phenomena. Not a single person alive (or dead) on this planet of ours has ever been to Mars or Venus, yet we know and discuss a lot about our celestial neighbors. And being somewhere doesn’t make ones opinion any more correct than anyone else’s.

            Lots of people have been to the grand canyon, doesn’t mean you have to treat little Billy who went there with his family last summer as an expert on all things Grand Canyon or his wild ideas about it’s formation as the result of digging by an army of slaves by order of Emperor Palpatine during the Clone Wars as something worth listening to just because “he’s been there, have you?”

            Bottom line: science and scientific data trumps opinion, even the opinion of someone who has “been somewhere” related to that opinion. Everyone has an opinion, having gone somewhere (or not gone somewhere) does not make that opinion any better or worse.

          • Loydo,

            Your chart shows that it stopped declining after 2007, which factual reality warmists/alarmists continually ignore.

            You going to ignore it too?

          • If that is all you see when you look at that chart tommy you have no grounds to question anyone else’s grip on reality.

          • Like the rest of the trolls, loydo is only interested in data that supports her opinion.
            The data that shows that ice levels were at record levels in the late 70’s and early 80’s don’t count. All that matters is that ice levels have dropped from those record levels.

          • @ Sunsettommy “it stopped declining after 2007,”

            That was the year strong winds and waves busted the ice arches (surface dams of ice) in the straits. Multi-year ice streamed south** to warmer waters, and melted. In fits and starts (episodically), multi-year ice will accumulated. Repeat.

            **Lots of info on the web, including video. Use ‘ice arches’ as search string.

          • Arctic sea ice summer minimum extent has been flat since 2007 and up since the record low of 2012. Annual fluctuations depend upon weather. The lowest years, ie 2007, 2012 and 2016, experienced August cyclones, two in the latter case. The wind scatters and piles up the floes, lowering the area with 15% ice cover.

        • Why would an ice-free Arctic be a bad thing? It has happened many times in the recent past.

    • But no doubt when, inevitably, the north pole once again becomes temporarily ice free in coming years it will be trumpeted by the climate alarm industry as incontrovertible evidence of global warming?

    • Not according to its captain, James Calvert, or to the photographs taken at the time.
      As they searched for some thin ice to break through Calvert reports “But everywhere ice of 10 feet or more created a black ceiling on our icy world”.
      Eventually they found a thinner patch and attempted to break through.
      “Finally, about 4:30, our sail crunched into the ice where we wanted it. We watched the TV with anxious eyes: it showed us going through! The ice was heavier here than we had broken through before, but we were breaking it”.

      https://static1.squarespace.com/static/53b9ddbde4b02130282b5f90/t/53c30303e4b055c49fb7ab4d/1405289228041/vhd-uss-skate.jpg

  10. I wonder why they make a prediction 30 years out? Oh that’s right, their earlier predictions were only 5-10 years out and showed them to be frauds. No one will remember this prediction 30 years from now.

  11. The north pole becomes ice free regularly anyway. Just as in MAY 1986 when three nuclear submarines,USS Hawksbill, USS Ray and USS Archerfish visited a large area of open water at the pole at the same time. The timing seems to depend on the extent of volcanicly heated water rising from the Gakkel Ridge seafloor spreading zone which extends across the Arctic Ocean close by. So, they may be right though their attribution may be off.

  12. In the last half million years there have been five brief interglacial warm periods. We are living in the last of those five. The others peaked with higher average temperatures than the earth of today. The north pole would have been Ice Free in summer for at least several hundred years at the peaks of those interglacials, several thousand years in the interglacial just before ours.

    Regular warming and colding cycles happening in a world where humans were wearing animal skins, and making their tool by banging rocks against other rocks ? How could that happen ?

    After 12,000 years of warm, people who could look at that cycle in our 2.7 million year Quaternary Ice Age … and still think the next era of world temperatures will be “hotter” … are missing something… celebrally.

  13. I would like to comment two points,

    First a paper from this February about possible causes for the strong arctic warming:
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0677-4?proof=trueIn
    “Our findings reveal a substantial contribution of ODS to recent Arctic warming..”
    (ODS are the ozone killers.. non-CO2)
    Any model which got these wrong is wrong about the arctic in my opinion

    And Notz on Spiegel-Online (https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/klimawandel-in-der-arktis-das-eis-am-nordpol-ist-nicht-mehr-zu-retten-a-d923c467-e6ff-4e94-92c1-03fe20c20d1b):
    “Doch bislang hätten Modelle die komplette Schmelze vor allem dann vorausgesagt, wenn man sie mit extremen Parametern gefüttert hätte”
    Which google translates to:
    “But so far, models would have predicted the complete melt especially if they had been fed with extreme parameters”
    Basically, he is admitting that people like him practiced alarmism about the arctic warming in the past.
    But now he isn´t!? Cry wolf, anyone?

    • What strong Arctic warming? There are so few temp stations in the arctic, it’s laughable.

        • I reflected on my comment Jeff and feel I was a little flippant. Maybe he is suffering from the same affliction as Joe Biden. People must know that they’re not fit for the role that they’re in. It seems a cruel joke to me that they are simply puppets. I would have thought that there own families would seek to protect them from ridicule.

  14. Some of the Antarctic sea ice will compensate :
    – look at the penguin on the iceberg gently journeying from South to North.

    • Also good to see the penguin practising social distancing, but it should probably have stayed home.

    • It would make shipping a lot cheaper, it would also open up the arctic region to the point where the resources up there would be a lot easier to get to.

  15. I’m pretty sure by 2030 the world will already be done…drought, flooding, extreme heat and increased poverty…per the UN. No one will be around to see anything in 2050.

  16. It doesn’t matter because the asteriod Apophis is going to hit Earth in 2036. So to hell with ice free arctic summers, COVID-19, alcohol free beer, diet soda, sugar free anything, skin tags and everything else. Party now and don’t worry about what we can’t change. We’re all goners anyway.

  17. I’ve developed a computer model that demonstrates that 100% of computer models return the result that the programmer desires. Admittedly I had to add a parameter to allow for adjustment of the programming skill of the developer, and another to allow for committee based consensus of the desired outcome, but the evidence is irrefutable.

  18. Note to self:
    -Get a floatplane rating asap before all airports are submerged.

    *implicit palmface*

    As if we don’t have that many serious issues to figure out, here they come with the “Waterworld” sequel du jour…

    • “basically the same finding as Ar5”

      In other words, just as crap and out of touch with reality as AR5. Not exactly a ringing endorsement there Mr drive-by.

  19. Interesting that the RCP’s have been renamed “SSP Scenarios (shared socio-economic pathways)” I think it’s reasonable to assume that SSP5-8.5 (which their predictions are based on) is our old friend RCP 8.5. Its description has been changed from “business as usual” to “largely unchanged future CO2 emissions“. I suppose the names have been changed from the essentially meaningless “representative concentration pathways” to the equally meaningless but more pretentious-sounding “shared socio-economic pathways” to give the impression that they are doing something new and creative.

    Climate science at work. What a waste.

  20. Totally disturbing this information. We must take care of our planet earth. in less than 30 years there will be no more ice in the Arctic, wow!

  21. By 2050 –or 2070 — or 2090 — or maybe even 2040. Whatever, maybe whenever it might get warm enough for long enough. Or maybe not!

  22. An ice-free Summer Arctic event is the last hobby horse the Left has been ridding hard for the past 30 years…

    It’s hilarious to see this event is now predicted to happen in…..2050… I thought the “experts” said it was a done deal in 2012?

    What’s an even more interesting phenomenon is the very rapid recovery of Antarctic sea ice this year….

    A little off topic, but does anyone have any ideas of what’s happening in a 2,000km-long mixed narrow band of very cold and very warm SST anomalies off the coast of Nova Scotia that has been going on for many months?

    https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/current/daily/gif/cur_coraltemp5km_ssta_large.gif

    I can’t recall ever seeing anything like this.

    Cheers.

    • The warm anomalies have been there for many years. Has always seemed strange to me. They seem to appear out of nowhere and lead to nowhere.

      • Richard-san:

        I understand the many large pockets of +5C SST temp anomalies are being caused by the Gulf Stream, but what’s perplexing are all the cold -3~-5C SST cold anomalies which are interspersed right next to these +5C SST anomalies.

        It’s like huge volumes of deep cold ocean ocean water are being pumped into this 2,000 KM section of the Gulf Stream which I can’t recall ever seeing. It seems really bizarre.

  23. Been ice fee before , what’s the big deal? Submarines surfaced there in the 50s, it waxes and wanes. Jeez get a grip.

  24. When all the snow settles, it is Winter Ice that is of concern! Its demise can be calculated – but we’re talking about centuries into the future!

  25. IMPORTANT:
    This is probably a serious warning about what to expect from the nest IPCC report, since quote:
    “The simulations used in this study are based on so-called SSP Scenarios (shared socio-economic pathways), which will also be used for the next IPCC report. Scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 are used to simulate a rapid reduction of future CO2 emissions, while scenario SSP5-8.5 is used to simulate largely unchanged future CO2 emissions. The study is based on simulations from the most recent generation of climate models, collected within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).

    So what does that indicate about these “new SSP IPCC climate science simulations”?!

    Shockingly enough, this SSP based study says that the Arctic summer ice will not only disappear at today’s CO2 levels, but even at “rapidly reduced emissions”(!), quote:

    “The research team has analyzed recent results from 40 different climate models. Using these models, the researchers considered the future evolution of Arctic sea-ice cover in a scenario with high future CO2 emissions and little climate protection. As expected, Arctic sea ice disappeared quickly in summer in these simulations. However, the new study finds that Arctic summer sea ice also disappears occasionally if CO2 emissions are rapidly reduced.”

    Lord have mercy.

  26. The Russians are being contrary again !! Not content with building a new fleet of large nuclear-powered icebreakers, one on trials, 2 fitting out, and 2 on order, they have let a design contract for 3 even bigger units capable of pushing through 4 metres of ice for delivery 2030-33. But then, Russians only live there. What would they know compared to a swag of professional schoolkids hunched over their computers in climate-controlled luxury ?

  27. Not according to its captain, James Calvert, or to the photographs taken at the time.
    As they searched for some thin ice to break through Calvert reports “But everywhere ice of 10 feet or more created a black ceiling on our icy world”.
    Eventually they found a thinner patch and attempted to break through.
    “Finally, about 4:30, our sail crunched into the ice where we wanted it. We watched the TV with anxious eyes: it showed us going through! The ice was heavier here than we had broken through before, but we were breaking it”.

    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/53b9ddbde4b02130282b5f90/t/53c30303e4b055c49fb7ab4d/1405289228041/vhd-uss-skate.jpg

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