The Week That Was: 2020-04-18 (April 18, 2020)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “It is the mark of an educated man to look for precision in each class of things just so far as the nature of the subject admits.” – Aristotle, Nicomachean Ethics [H/t Demetris Koutsoyiannis]
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Limits of Models: In the midst of the lock-down of much of the U.S. public and the collapsing economy; some Americans are learning a few important lessons. One, the country is a republic with a written Constitution. As President Trump realized this week, that Constitution grants the Federal government limited powers, even during a health emergency. And two, numerical models are not infallible. Indeed, almost daily, Drs. Birx and Fauci repeat on television that: “this model is only as good as the data we put into it.” Speculation, scenarios or projections, may be interesting but must be supported by evidence fitting the issue. Unfortunately, all too frequently government policy has been based on models using inappropriate data.
For example, for several decades beginning in the 1970s, Federal government energy policy was based on the fear the country was about to run out of oil and natural gas based on Federal energy models. These models were based on easily recoverable reservoirs, subsurface pools, that were on shore, and ignored the vast offshore resources such as the Gulf of Mexico and the North Slope of Alaska, and vast difficult-to-release onshore resources, especially tight shale.
Similarly, the UN and some US government entities are promoting the fear that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are causing dangerous global warming by ignoring the vast evidence that greenhouse gases are not causing a dangerous warming of the atmosphere, where the greenhouse effect occurs.
As Drs. Birx and Fauci realize, solid, factually based data of high quality are needed to establish a model to make reasonable projections / forecasts. Inappropriate data should not be used. For example, at midnight GMT on April 18, worldometers reported that the death rate per million of population in the USA was 118, yet in China it was 3.
One has to be skeptical of any model projecting future deaths which was designed using the numbers from China. Correspondingly, one has to be skeptical of the dubious quality of the doctored surface data used in designing the climate models created by laboratories in the US and those largely used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Contrary to what is often expressed in the press, models are a tool for understanding, not an answer. Models are not universal, although sometimes certain mathematical functions may apply to many uses. For example, experiments show that the radiative “forcing” due to increasing CO2 follows a smooth logarithmic function which describes the ever-decreasing influence of adding more dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. Further, a model may describe well a certain issue or problem but may be unsuitable for forecasting or, especially, long term prediction.
Here, numerical weather models are an example. They usually make good forecasts a few days out and, occasionally, up to two weeks out. Predicting extreme weather events, a month out is the goal, but remains to be achieved. The mathematical concept of chaos creates problems. Using similar models to forecast one hundred years out is completely unrealistic. Indeed, climate models differ from weather models for that very reason.
Climate models assume that increasing amounts of CO2 will cause increasing radiative forcing, which in turn will cause the temperature to rise (by how much?), and in turn cause more (how much more?) water evaporation and therefore higher (how much higher?) greenhouse forcing from H2O. More heating should occur at the poles because the ratio of CO2 to atmospheric H2O is higher. Tack on a number of assumptions about vegetation, storms, albedo of the land (as opposed to that of clouds that are assumed not to change), and so forth, and the result is hundreds of scenarios from a handful of different models. The results are all over the map, with precious little contact with reality.
There is a mental process needed to create a realistic model to address an issue or problem. The steps below are not all inclusive, but are suggestions:
· Identify the problem, precisely
· Identify the best data, controlled experimental data preferred to observational data
· Design the model using the best data available
· Systematically test the model against the best data available
· Systematically test the model against other data
· Test the model for predictive capability
· Continue to test the model with changing data
Perhaps the biggest deficiency of climate modeling is the failure to use the best data available – atmospheric temperature trends.
These data clearly demonstrate that current atmospheric warming is not dangerous. Atmospheric temperature trends and additional greenhouse gases are issues that need constant attention, but not drastic regulation. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Examples of Modeling: There are several interesting examples of trying to develop a model for the Covid-19. Russian-American engineer Dmitry Orlov starts with describing the growth of bacteria in a petri-dish with food, agar. At first the bacteria will grow explosively, then slow down and eventually stop when all the agar is consumed. The growth rate is proportional to the number of bacteria present, but also to the amount of agar not covered by bacteria. The growth pattern can be described as a logistic function, which can be used to describe pandemics. However, Orlov cautions:
“Mathematical models can be arbitrarily complicated and, as an immediate consequence, arbitrarily wrong. It is possible to fit a polynomial to just about any data just by adding enough terms to it, but the predictive value of such an exercise is pretty much nil. The logistic model is simple. It uses just three parameters: midpoint, maximum and growth rate. And it models real, physical phenomena that are ubiquitous in nature: exponential growth and exponential [logarithmic] saturation.” Boldface added
After adjusting for the highly questionable data from China, Orlov estimates (guesses) when the midpoint of the pandemic will be reached. Probably, this cannot be established until after the worst is over and it depends on the success of the efforts to control exposure. Another issue is the upper bound – the number of new deaths. Again, this will not be known until after the worst is over.
For a different model, on his blog, ScienceBits, Physics professor Nir Shaviv, an advocate of Svensmark’s cosmic ray hypothesis is posting a series modeling COVID-19, with a time variable infection rate. He recognizes the importance of time, which is frequently forgotten by those making forecasts using models.
For example, those predicting Florida will soon drown use graphics showing much of Florida was once flooded. During the last interglacial, about 120,000 years ago, much of Florida was covered by oceans. Limestone about 120,000 years old has been mined well above today’s sea level. So, one can “predict” that if the present warm period continues, much of Florida will be submerged. The issue is when – 1,000 years from now, 10,000, or 100,000? See links under Science, Policy, and Evidence, and Models v. Observations.
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Examples of Erroneous Modeling: On his blog, The Pipeline, Tom Finnerty has an interview with Ross McKitrick, who with Steve McIntyre demolished the infamous “Hockey-stick” developed by Michael Mann, et al., and featured in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC (AR-3, 2001). McIntyre tried to replicate the hockey-stick and found significant errors. Of course, the IPCC and its followers ignore the publications of McIntyre and McKitrick. McKitrick states:
“I think there are going to be some reckonings, especially for the climate modelling industry. They’ve got some big failures to deal with. And that wouldn’t be a problem if people understood that models of any kind, including climate models, are really study tools. They’re ways of trying to understand the system, because the system is too complicated to figure out, so you build a simplified climate model of it and you try to figure out how that works and you hope that you learn something. But when it’s set up as, this is a forecasting tool that we can make precise calculations with and base policy decisions on, then we’re entitled to ask ‘Well, how good of a forecasting tool is this?’ And they don’t work very well for that.” Boldface added
Finnerty concludes the report with:
“Predictive models are comforting, because they make us feel like we know what is going to happen, and we can act accordingly. But sometimes the real world, in all of its messy unpredictability, intrudes. Here’s hoping that our adventure with the WuFlu teaches us to be a little more cautious about throwing everything away on an incomplete data set.”
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In a review of “Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers” by economist John Kay and former head of the Bank of England Mervyn King, journalist Joseph Sternberg states:
“We’re in the grip of a global pandemic that we don’t understand and must make immediate choices that balance the demands of our health against the needs of our economy.
“The main advice to emerge from this book is: Don’t ask an economist. Economics has claimed for itself the right to address health policy and many other issues outside its usual orbits. ‘Radical Uncertainty’ reminds us how inappropriate that is. Chemists, plumbers and doctors identify problems within their subject areas, then develop tools with which to solve them. Economists appear unbidden on any doorstep they please with a box of mostly useless tools in search of problems.
“Their field, they note, is dominated by probabilistic methods. Politicians and their advisers assess risks with the aid of statistical tools derived from games of chance, in the hope that scientifically quantifying risk will allow them to make intelligent trade-offs about the future. “For more than half a century a single approach to rational choice under uncertainty has dominated economics,’ the authors write. ‘Agents optimize, subject to defined constraints. They list possible courses of action, define the consequences of the various alternatives, and evaluate these consequences. Then they select the best available option.’
“There’s a place for those tools, but economics habitually overreaches. Modern economists assume that whatever outcome their models predict must be axiomatically rational. When human beings fail to act according to these predictions, it is taken as a failure of the people, not the model.
“This insulting assumption, Messrs. Kay and King point out, is at the heart of microeconomics’ behavioral turn and the proliferation of “nudge” quackery in policy-making circles. The same tic enters macroeconomics as an appeal to exogenous shifts or shocks to explain economic crises the models didn’t see coming or about which economists simply have chosen not to fret.”
After stating life is not a game of chance, the reviewer discusses that often difficult decisions need those who can assess decisions that are politically tolerable, not mathematically determined, for there is no optimal solution. Then the reviewer concludes with:
“If you’re radically uncertain about what to do, doing nothing is often the best option.
“‘Corporate-strategy documents, they note, are designed to lend a false air of probabilistic precision to what is at best a guess about the market. Economists measure the economic impact of public-works projects by feeding invented numbers into faulty models, deriving outputs that enter the public realm with an undeserved aura of certainty.’
See links under Model Issues and Article # 1
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Epistemic Trespassing: Some “orthodox” climate scientists attempt to discredit other scientists who work in climate studies. Comments by Will Happer and Freeman Dyson were dismissed because “they are not climate scientists” even though they understand quantum theory, which is needed to understand the greenhouse effect: how certain molecules in the atmosphere can slow the loss of energy from the earth’s surface. McIntyre and McKitrick were dismissed because “they are not climate scientists,” though they showed that the statistical techniques accepted by the IPCC gave misleading results.
On her blog, Climate Etc., Judith Curry brings up another trick – Epistemic Trespassing
“Epistemic trespassers are thinkers who have competence or expertise to make good judgments in one field but move to another field where they lack competence—and pass judgment, nevertheless. We should doubt that trespassers are reliable judges in fields where they are outsiders.’ In other words, stay in your lane.”
After being informed of this, McIntyre responded
“Any discipline, such as Mannian/PAGES2K temperature reconstructions, which bases its results on ex post screening on industrial scale, necessarily produces dross on an industrial scale and is not actual ‘expertise.’ Shouldn’t be contentious.”
See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Humidity: The 1979 Charney Report speculated a major increase in water vapor from a CO2-caused warming, would greatly amplifying the modest warming CO2 would cause. This significant water vapor amplification has not been found, and most global climate models, because they still contain this assumption, overestimate atmospheric warming by 2.5 to 3 times. After reviewing a paper by Demetris Koutsoyiannis published in Hydrology and Earth System Science, Paul Robeson wrote:
“He [Koutsoyiannis] finds that while there are fluctuations on short- and long-term time scales, humidity is only increasing by about one-third the rate predicted in climate models, and overall hydrological intensity is going down, not up.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Greatly Improving Air: There is great distortion regarding the improving health effects from decreasing economic activity. Photos taken over polluted areas of China are asserted as global improvements, but they are not. The issue is regional conditions. Today, thanks to pollution control devises, the US has extremely clean air by historical standards, perhaps, the cleanest air since Europeans arrived in great numbers with their “miracle” tool, the axe. A web site on NASA (as different from NASA-GISS) states:
“When we talk about ‘air pollution,’ we’re referring to chemicals or particles in the atmosphere that are known to have negative health effects on humans. The Clean Air Act of 1970 established legislation that requires the tracking of six of those pollutants — nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ground-level ozone, carbon monoxide, particulate matter (microscopic specks of solid or liquid material in the air), sulfur dioxide, and lead. Satellite instruments are measuring all of these except lead.”
“’We’ve been able to show that since 2004, NO2 levels have dropped as much as 50% depending on what metropolitan area we’re talking about. In fact, the air in the United States is now the cleanest it has been in the modern industrial era,’ Haynes said.”
It should be noted that the satellites measuring visible pollution cannot see through clouds. See links under Measurement Issues – Atmosphere.
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How Much? For years, TWTW traced the US spending on climate science using reports by the GAO and the Congressional Research Service, then estimates from the White House. These reports stopped during the Obama Administration. Using realistic estimates of US subsidies for wind and solar, TWTW had estimated the spending exceeded the total spending on the entire Apollo Project ($200 billion). The spending has continued to increase, but the estimates are not well substantiated. On his blog, Tom Finnerty presents more recent estimates, in part based on a 2018 report by Stephen Moore of The Heritage Foundation. See links under Funding Issues.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The eight past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz, John Holdren, Gena McCarthy, Jerry Brown, and Christiana Figueres are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you.
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Number of the Week: 2 cents: According to the American Lung Association:
“In 2015-2016, only 2 cents of every dollar that states received from their settlement with tobacco companies went to smoking cessation classes and public health programs for those affected with tobacco related illnesses.”
What happened to the other 98% of moneys collected? And corporations that sell products that people are willing to buy are called greedy? See links under Litigation Issues.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Who Will Win The World’s Biggest Scientific Experiment In History?
By Staff, GWPF, Apr 8, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/who-will-win-the-worlds-biggest-scientific-experiment-in-history/
Link to report: The Next Solar Cycle: And why it matters for climate
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2020/04/SolarCycle25.pdf
[SEPP Comment: It might take several solar cycles before a clear answer is obtained. As Richard Lindzen may state: it is not a controlled experiment, but a set of observations.]
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
And your children’s children
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 15, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/04/15/and-your-childrens-children/
Challenging the Orthodoxy – S. Fred Singer
Dr. Fred Singer — Loss of a Great Scientist and Inspirational Friend
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Apr 13, 2020
https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/satellite-temperature-recordings/2020/04/13/id/962543/
My Long Goodbye to S. Fred Singer
By Marc Sheppard, American Thinker, Apr 11, 2020
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/my_long_goodbye_to_s_fred_singer.html
An obituary for The New York Times
By Michael Widlanski, American Thinker, Apr 13, 2020
Fred Singer: 1924-2020
By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Apr 12, 2020
https://motls.blogspot.com/2020/04/fred-singer-1924-2020.html
S. Fred Singer, a Leading Climate Change Contrarian, Dies at 95
Derided as a “Merchant of Doubt,” he spent decades trying to refute the evidence of global warming and other environmental risks.
By John Schwartz, NYT, Apr 11, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/climate/s-fred-singer-dead.html
[SEPP Comment: Still seeking evidence that Singer took money from tobacco, chemical, and oil companies! Or, why bother with evidence when accusations work?]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/SeaLevelRiseCCRII.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
COVID19 models – a lesson for those who trust climate scientists
By Staff, ICECAP, Apr 15, 2020
Climate Models and COVID-19 Models
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Apr 15, 2020
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/climate_models_and_covid19_models.html
Complicated models are always full of escape hatches that can explain away any failure. Climate models still enjoy support in spite of 30 years of failure. The failures are alleged to be due to things like chaotic variation or data that has to be adjusted because it does not agree with the model. COVID-19 models are new but have had notable failures. For example, the IMHE model predicted up to two million deaths but has been repeatedly adjusted and now is down to 60,000 deaths. Usually it is claimed that the model is not wrong, but deaths are lower because the American people have been good boys and girls.
German Climate Researcher, Geologist: “What Climate Scientists Could Learn From Virologists”
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning, Die kalte Sonne (Text translated, edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Apr 12, 2020
“Corona shows the stark attitude differences between the sciences of climate and virology. While one arrogantly claims to monopolize the truth, the other acknowledges the great uncertainties.”
[SEPP Comment: The important issue is not that the models have failed, but why? How can we improve them? Until the modelers admit failure, they will not improve them.]]
Why Climate Models Are Less Accurate Than You Think
By Anthony Watts, The Epoch Times, Apr 13, 2020
Link to paper: Ill-sooted models,
By Baird Langenbrunner, Nature, Climate Change, Mar 31, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0749-5
Eco-Reality Strikes Back: Earth Day at 50
By Steve Milloy, Junk Science, April 2020
https://junkscience.com/2020/04/eco-reality-strikes-back-earth-day-at-50/
The ‘Hydro-illogical cycle’
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 15, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/04/15/the-hydro-illogical-cycle/
Revisiting global hydrological cycle: Is it intensifying?
By Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Hydrology and Earth System Science, March 20, 2020
https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/hess-2020-120/hess-2020-120.pdf
Defending the Orthodoxy
U.S. conservatives who detest climate models add a new target: coronavirus models
By Scott Waldman, E&E News, Via AAAS Science, Apr 15, 2020
More Than 400 News Outlets Partner With A Project Seeking Media To Beef Up Climate Coverage Amid Pandemic
By Chris White, Daily Caller, Apr 16, 2020
https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/16/coronavirus-climate-news-coverage-columbia-journalism-review/
Climate disasters increase risks of armed conflicts: New evidence
By Staff Writers, Potsdam, Germany (SPX), Apr 03, 2020
Link to paper: Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk
By Tobias Ide, et al., Global Environmental Change, May 2020
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378019307307?via%3Dihub
From the introduction in the article: “With ongoing climate change, extreme weather events will increase in frequency and intensity (IPCC, 2018). Together with economic and population growth, including in exposed areas, the risks posed by climate-related disasters (herein after disasters) like droughts, floods, landslides, heat waves and storms will rise in the future.”
[SEPP Comment: Until the pandemic hit, humanity was enjoying the most prosperous time in its existence!]
NHS Fighting Imaginary Bogeymen In 2080
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 13, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/04/13/nhs-fighting-imaginary-bogeymen-in-208o/
Link to handbook: Sustaining a Healthy Future: Taking Action on Climate Change – Special Focus on the NHS
By Staff, Faculty of Public Health, UK Health Alliance on Climate Change, 2017
The link to the 2017 handbook stated: “Page not found: The page you requested cannot be found, it may have been deleted or moved.” Apr 17, 2020.
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Scientists Find A CO2 Impact On Ocean Heat Content Changes Amounts To 0.049% At Most
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 16, 2020
Link to paper: The Response of the Ocean Thermal Skin Layer to Variations in Incident Infrared Radiation
By Elizabeth Wong, Peter Minnett, JGR Oceans, Mar 23, 2018
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017JC013351
Have We Won?
By Geoff Chambers, Climate Scepticism, Apr 10, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
https://cliscep.com/2020/04/10/have-we-won/
Sea-riously
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 15, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/04/15/sea-riously/
“His complaint is not abstract. He was himself a reviewer last time around, for the AR5 report. And he complained about the sea-level data getting a thorough massage. Specifically, there’s a habit of adding in a 0.3mm/year “adjustment” to make the oceans rise faster than they are. And it matters because the resulting 1.7mm/y rise over the 20th century is the basis of some of the current campfire stories about cities washing away and 0.3 is a big chunk of 1.7.”
Why Bushfires Are Getting Worse
By Mark Poynter, Quadrant, Apr 17, 2020
https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2020/04/why-bushfires-are-getting-worse/
“Recent research in Mediterranean countries refers to this phenomenon as the “fire-fighting trap” because nowhere in the world has increasing the numbers of fire-fighting aircraft ever reduced the incidence and extent of large forest fires.”
[SEPP Comment: Is aerial water-bombing impressive, but ineffective?]
What Would We Do Without Experts?
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Apr 12, 2020
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/what-would-we-do-without-experts-3.php
After Paris!
Paris climate goals failure ‘could cost world $600 tn’
By Patrick Galey, Paris (AFP), April 14, 2020
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Paris_climate_goals_failure_could_cost_world_600_tn_999.html
Link to paper that maybe the one referenced: Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era
By YiMing Wei, et al. Nature, Communications, Apr 14, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15453-z
[SEPP Comment: Calculating with great precision what we do not understand?]
Japan minister: Paris accord under threat if coronavirus trumps climate change
By Kiyoshi Takenaka, Ritsuko Shimizu, Reuters, Apr 13, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
Coronavirus: COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow postponed for a year
Sky News understands that the budget for the event is £350 million – of which around half had been committed to venues.
By Tamara Cohen and Aubrey Allegretta, Sky News, Apr 1, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
Can the world’s most influential climate report carry on?
For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, COVID-19 has forced a new way of doing business.
By Jeff Tollefson, Nature, Apr 7, 2020
Change in US Administrations
Trump’s New CAFE Rule: Better than Obama, Still Too Much
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Apr 16, 2020
https://www.masterresource.org/cafe-standards-auto-bailout/cafe-rule-better-too-much/
Trump’s Vehicle Emission Rules Will Save Americans’ Lives and Money
By Jason Isaac, Real Clear Energy, April 14, 2020
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Rising CO2 levels GREENING the Earth: NASA
By Geoff, The Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, Apr 18, 2020
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2020/04/rising-co2-levels-greening-earth-nasa.html
Video
Problems in the Orthodoxy
‘Eco-fascism’ Troubles Climate Alarmists
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, April 14, 2020
https://www.masterresource.org/climate-hate-speech/eco-fascism-troubles-climate-alarmists/
Seeking a Common Ground
Correcting Recent U.S. Weekly Death Statistics for Incomplete Reporting
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Apr 6, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Lags in reporting deaths influence data.]
In favor of epistemic trespassing
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 14, 2020
https://judithcurry.com/2020/04/14/in-favor-of-epistemic-trespassing/
Time To Get Serious — Or Time To Go Completely Crazy?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 14, 2020
How to re-open the country and control COVID-19 #coronavirus
By Leo Goldstein, WUWT, Apr 15, 2020
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/15/how-to-re-open-the-country-and-control-covid-19-coronavirus/
“’If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it’ is applicable here.”
Data we ought to know and don’t know about the Chinese virus #coronavirus
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Apr 17, 2020
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/17/data-we-ought-to-know-and-dont-know-about-the-chinese-virus/
America Can’t Afford to Wait on Projections, Models
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Apr 15, 2020
https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/coronavirus-gcm-fauci-covid/2020/04/15/id/962946/
An epidemic of doomsday forecasts
Worst-case scenario thinking has clouded political judgement for decades.
By James Woudhuysen, Spiked, Apr 13, 2020
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/13/an-epidemic-of-doomsday-forecasts/
“Yet a much more powerful thread runs through every previous pandemic panic. Vision-free politicians defer to forecasters whose models are opaque, whose assumptions are often left unstated, and whose conclusions provide their makers and newspapers with a definitive-sounding, headline-grabbing pessimism to sell. Politicians pay lip service to these forecasts because they don’t know what to believe in anymore.”
An Open Letter to Governor Waltz [Minnesota]
By Scott Johnson, Power Line, Apr 17, 2020
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/an-open-letter-to-governor-walz.php
“For the time being, we will overlook your error in accepting at face value a model which, by its authors’ own statements, was based on information which was too limited to create accurate scenarios and should not have been relied upon. At some point, you will have to explain why you used the most extreme numbers produced by that model to justify your actions, numbers that were never credible and that have since been revised downward by half or more.”
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Ocean Acidification Impacts on Bacterial Biofilm Communities
Kerfahi, D., Harvey, B.P., Agostini, S., Kon, K., Huang, R., Adams, J.M. and Hall-Spencer, J.M. 2020. Responses of intertidal bacterial biofilm communities to increasing pCO2. Marine Biotechnology https://doi.org/10.1007/s10126-020-09958-3. Apr 17, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/apr/a8.php
Micronutrient Availability in a Rice Paddy Field Exposed to Elevated CO2
Li, C., Zhu, J., Zeng, Q. and Liu, G. 2020. Changes in microelement availability in a paddy field exposed to long-term atmospheric CO2 enrichment. Journal of Soils and Sediments https://doi.org/10.1007/s11368-020-02601-7. Apr 15, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/apr/a7.php
FACE Technology Under-predicts the Future Response of Plants to Elevated CO2
Allen, L.H., Kimball, B.A., Bunce, J.A., Yoshimoto, M., Harazono, Y., Baker, J.T., Boote, K.J. and White, J.W. 2020. Fluctuations of CO2 in Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) depress plant photosynthesis, growth, and yield. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 284: 107899. Apr 14, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/apr/a6.php
Effects of CO2 and Precipitation Amount on a C3 Grass
Wang, H., Zhou, G., Jiang, Y., Shi, Y. and Xu, Z. 2019. Effects of elevated CO2 on Stipa baicalensis photosynthesis depend on precipitation and growth phase. Ecological Research 34: 790-801. Apr 10, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/apr/a5.php
Models v. Observations
A Simple Model of the Coronavirus Pandemic
By Dmitry Orlov, Club Orlov Blog, Apr 15, 2020 [H/t Mark Liebe]
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2020/04/a-simple-model-of-coronavirus-pandemic.html
Modeling the COVID-19 / Coronavirus pandemic – 4. Modeling with at time variable infection rate.
By Nir Shaviv, Science Bits, Apr 17, 2020
http://www.sciencebits.com/corona-time-varying
Model Issues
There’s Something About Models…
By Tom Finnerty, The Pipeline, Apr 9, 2020
https://the-pipeline.org/something-about-models/
Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
By Marina Medvin, Townhall, Apr 15, 2020
But what about Italy and their staggering 12% mortality rate? “The health system in Italy has its own problems. It has nothing to do with coronavirus. In 2017 it also collapsed because of the flu,”
[SEPP Comment: The all-too-common explanation why X does not obey the model: there is something else wrong!]
Measurement Issues — Surface
While NASA Alters/Warms Greece Temperature Data, Cold And Unusual Snow Keep Coming Anyway!
By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 10, 2020
1919 or 2019: Really Flat Place Edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 15, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/04/15/1919-or-2019-really-flat-place-edition/
[SEPP Comment: Changing prairies?]
Jan Esper receives ERC Advanced Grant to improve climate reconstructions from tree rings
EU funding for the collection of a new tree ring network covering the Northern Hemisphere and the development of tree ring growth and density models
Press Release, Johannes Gutenberg Universitaet Mainz, Apr 14, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-04/jgum-jer041420.php
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
CO2 Reaches Record High 418 PPM
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Apr 10, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/04/co2-reaches-record-high-418-ppm/
“There is no indication humans have the ability to control atmospheric CO2 via political decisions.”
How NASA is Helping the World Breathe More Easily
By Esprit Smith, NASA, Apr 14, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/how-nasa-is-helping-the-world-breathe-more-easily
March 2020 CO2 Levels at Mauna Loa Show No Obvious Effect from Global Economic Downturn
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, April 7th, 2020
See link immediately below.
Analysis: Coronavirus set to cause largest ever annual fall in CO2 emissions
By Simon Evans, Carbon Brief, Apr 9, 2020
“Based only on the historical relationship between GDP and CO2, this would translate into a near-10% cut in CO2 emissions in 2020 – a fall of more than 3,600MtCO2 – which is more than double the 1,600MtCO2 figure from Carbon Brief’s bottom-up analysis.”
See link immediately above.
Changing Weather
New Paper: 2019 Floods “Nothing Out Of The Ordinary”
Press Release, GWPF, Apr16, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/new-paper-2019-floods-nothing-out-of-the-ordinary/
Link to report: The UK’s Weather in 2019: More of the same, again
By Paul Homewood, GWPF, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2020/04/UKClimate2020.pdf
Snowiest Winter Ever In Boulder
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 17, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/04/snowiest-winter-ever-in-boulder/
As of 6:40 am, Apr 17, 145.9 inches (12.2 feet, 3.7 m) had fallen, includes a photo of Heller’s rooftop solar panel.
Changing Climate
Hottest Year Ever, Medieval Edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 15, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/04/15/hottest-year-ever-medieval-edition/
Link to paper: Eastern Mediterranean summer temperatures since 730 CE from Mt.
Smolikas tree‑ring densities
By Jan Esper, et al. Climate Dynamics, Nov 23, 2019
https://www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb09climatology/files/2019/12/Esper_2019_CD.pdf
Changing Seas
Causes of the Rapid Warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the Mid-1990s
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 9, 2020
Link to 30-year trends by month: Arctic Sea Ice Extent
By Staff, Danish Meteorological Institute, Accessed Apr 11, 2020
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover_30y.uk.php
Link to article: Causes of the Rapid Warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the Mid-1990s
By Jon Robson and Rowan Sutton, AMS, June 29 2012
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00443.1
“The Robson study fits in with an earlier one from NASA in 2007, which linked climatic changes in the Arctic to the Arctic Oscillation:
“The Arctic Oscillation is closely linked to the NAO, and is said to be “negative” when high pressure dominates the pole:
“The exact mechanisms are complex and still not well understood by scientists. But both of these studies point to natural, decadal atmospheric changes as being responsible for Arctic sea ice trends since the 1990s, which include the self evident stabilisation of sea ice extent since 2007.”
El Nino & Arctic Warming In the 1930s
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 4, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/04/04/el-nino-arctic-warming-in-the-1930s/
“Whether the AMO supplemented the effect of super El Ninos, or whether in fact the two oceanic phenomena are interconnected remains to be seen.”
A new method for correcting systematic errors in ocean subsurface data
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Apr 18, 2020
Link to paper: Correction for systematic errors in the global data set of temperature profiles from mechanical bathythermographs
By Gouretski & Cheng, International Center for Climate and Environmental Science, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, AMS, Apr 3, 2020
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JTECH-D-19-0205.1
Coral Catastrophes Imagined
By Jenifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Apr 10, 2020
https://jennifermarohasy.com/2020/04/coral-catastrophes-imagined/
Falling Sea Levels, a Rainbow and a Full Moon
By Jenifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Apr 8, 2020
https://jennifermarohasy.com/2020/04/falling-falling-sea-levels-and-a-full-moon/
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Highest Svalbard sea ice since 1988 with Bear Island in the south surrounded
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 8, 2020
Melting Glaciers Uncover Medieval Artefacts In Norway
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 16, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Discovering a warm period HH Lamb wrote about 38 years ago.]
A New 1796-2013 Greenland Reconstruction Shows It Was Warmer In The 1920s-1940s – And No Hockey Sticks
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 6, 2020
Link to paper: Sea Surface Temperature Variability on the SE‐Greenland Shelf (1796–2013 CE) and Its Influence on Thrym Glacier in Nørre Skjoldungesund
By David J. Wangner, et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Dec 5, 2019
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019PA003692
Breaking bad news
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 15, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/04/15/breaking-bad-news/
[SEPP Comment: The chinstrap penguin, another canary in the coal mine?]
Changing Earth
Timing of Earth’s biggest earthquakes follows a ‘devil’s staircase’ pattern
By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI), Apr 14, 2020
“Instead, scientists found global earthquake sequences tend to occur in clusters — outbursts of seismic events separated by long but irregular intervals of silence.”
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Agro-Ecology Financiers: Promoting Poverty, Malnutrition, and Death (Part 2)
By Paul Driessen, Master Resource, Apr 8, 2020
https://www.masterresource.org/driessen-paul/financiers-poverty-malnutrition-death-2%ef%bb%bf/
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Claims of Southwestern USA ‘Megadrought’ Are All Wet
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 18, 2020
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/18/claims-of-southwestern-usa-megadrought-are-all-wet/
See link immediately below.
Climate-driven megadrought is emerging in western US, says study
Warming may be triggering era worse than any in recorded history [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
A new study says a megadrought worse than anything known from recorded history is very likely in progress in the western United States and northern Mexico, and warming climate is playing a key role.
Press release, Earth Institute at Columbia University, Via Science Daily, Apr 16, 2020
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200416151750.htm
Link to paper: Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought
By A. Park Williams, AAAS Science, Apr 17, 2020
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6488/314
[SEPP Comment: Following the wettest century over the 1200-year study period, we have a dry 19 years. Therefore, we are in a megadrought caused by human CO2 emissions? More non-science from AAAS Science Mag. and Columbia U.]
Bornean Treeshrews Can Take the Heat
Press Release, University of Chicago, Via GWPF, Apr 17, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/bornean-treeshrews-can-take-the-heat/
Link to paper: Small Tropical Mammals Can Take the Heat: High Upper Limits of Thermoneutrality in a Bornean Treeshrew
By Anna Thonis, et al. Physiological and Biochemical Zoology. Mar 20, 2020
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/708467
Lowering Standards
Confidence In Media Plummets
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 15, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/04/15/confidence-in-media-plummets/
“As for the press, many now realise that newspapers are more interested in hysterical headlines than facts, and that most reporters no longer seem to have the skills required of proper journalism, to check facts, investigate and never trust what you have been told. Instead, far too many journalists have never had the proper grounding needed to do their job properly, and are too eager to cut and paste whatever fits their world view.
Matt McGrath Makes A Fool Of Himself–Part 94
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 15, 2020
“Climate Tales: Episode 94 – The BBC Discovers Weather”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
Whether denying coronavirus or climate change, many deploy the same unfounded strategies and messages.
By Dana Nuccitelli, Yale Climate Connections, Apr 14, 2020
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/04/coronavirus-doubters-follow-climate-denial-playbook/
[SEPP Comment: Written by a co-author of a 97% survey, which, after the fact, threw out data, and ranked some CO2-caused global skeptics as supporters of alarm – the conclusions desired.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Precipitation will be essential for plants to counteract global warming
New study first to demonstrate that the balance between soil water and energy input into an ecosystem determines whether its plant growth is limited by precipitation or by temperature
Press Release, Columbia University School of Engineering and Applied Science, Apr 13, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-04/cuso-pwb041020.php
Link to paper: Large and projected strengthening moisture limitation on end-of-season photosynthesis
By Yao Zhang, et al., PNAS, Apr 13, 2020
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/08/1914436117
“Considering the predicted warming and soil drying over most of the land surface by Earth system models, water availability is expected to become increasingly important as a limiting factor for late-season photosynthesis and carbon uptake.”
[SEPP Comment: If models that greatly exaggerate the warming of the atmosphere are correct, then…]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Deep emissions cuts this decade could prevent ‘abrupt ecological collapse’
By Daisy Dunne, Carbon Brief, Apr 8, 2020
Link to article: The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change
By Christopher H. Trisos, Cory Merow & Alex L. Pigot, Nature, Apr 8, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2189-9
From the abstract: “However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously.” Boldface added.
Is this the end of civilisation as we know it?
By Stéphane Orjollet, Paris (AFP), April 8, 2020
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Is_this_the_end_of_civilisation_as_we_know_it_999.html
The Conversation: “Sorry to disappoint climate deniers, but coronavirus makes the low-carbon transition more urgent”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 6, 2020
Link to article: Sorry to disappoint climate deniers, but coronavirus makes the low-carbon transition more urgent
By John Hewson, The Conversation, Apr 5, 2020
Disclosure statement: John Hewson was federal leader of the Liberal Party from 1990 to 1994. John has financial interests in thermal storage. He chairs the Business Council for Sustainable Development, BioEnergy Australia and Commission for the Human Future. John is also patron of the Smart Energy Council.
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
NASA fights campaign to remove 97% climate-change claim as ‘consensus’ challenged
By Valerie Richardson, The Washington Times, Apr 14, 2020
[SEPP Comment: NASA is so politicized that it doesn’t know how to read a poll. 97% of whom? In the poll published by EOS, over 3000 geo-scientists responded. The pollsters ignored over 97% of the respondents and published their findings on categories established after the fact by the pollsters. George Gallup tried valiantly to eliminate this erroneous procedure.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Climate Intelligence Foundation to Poynter Institute: Debate Climate Science, Don’t Insult
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Apr 13, 2020
https://www.masterresource.org/debate-issues/climate-intelligence-vs-poynter/
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
It’s a wonder the planet survived this long
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 15, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/04/15/its-a-wonder-the-planet-survived-this-long/
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
This Crisis Exposes The Hollow Fantasies Of Greta And Extinction Rebellion
By Tim Worsall, CapX, Apr 15, 2020
https://capx.co/the-crisis-exposes-the-hollow-fantasies-of-greta-and-extinction-rebellion/
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Businesses Critical of Costly Climate Bill Finally Get to Weigh In
By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Apr 16, 2020
https://cei.org/blog/businesses-critical-costly-climate-bill-finally-get-weigh
“The American Manufacturing and Innovation (AIM) Act (S. 2754) would limit the production of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), the class of chemicals used as refrigerants in most air conditioning and refrigeration equipment, as well as for other purposes. It would do so on the grounds that HFCs contribute to climate change.”
Questioning European Green
Almost half of UK’s carbon footprint down to ‘invisible’ emissions abroad
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 17, 2020
“But at least exercises like these expose the lie that we can get to Net Zero by installing lots of lovely renewable energy, drive electric cars and plant a few trees.
“The harsh reality is that we as a country will have to cut back and do without most of the things we take for granted in our lives now.”
France Faces Climate Shutdown As Green Soviets Demand Ban On Cars, Hypermarkets & 5G
By Staff, The Times, Via GWPF, Apr 14, 2020
Macron’s Climate Panel–What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 15, 2020
Questioning Green Elsewhere
How The Green New Deal’s Renewable Energy Mining Would Harm Humans And The Environment
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Apr 15, 2020
We must not let green extremists exploit the Coronacrisis
By Harry Wilkinson, Free Market Conservatives, Apr 7, 2020
https://freemarketconservatives.org/we-must-not-let-green-extremists-exploit-the-coronacrisis/
Funding Issues
Wanna Manufacture a Consensus? It’ll Cost You
By Tom Finnerty, The Pipeline, Mar 16, 2020
https://the-pipeline.org/manufacturing-a-consensus/
Link to: Follow the (Climate Change) Money
By Stephen Moore, The Heritage Foundation, Dec 18, 2018
https://www.heritage.org/environment/commentary/follow-the-climate-change-money
Very big green
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 15, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/04/15/very-big-green/
“In the spirit of Eisenhower’s caution, we should not allow respect for research, and for its inherent costs, to blind us to the fact that a great deal of money is now available to people who say what the government wants to hear. Or tolerate the slur that it’s the climate alarmists who are begging for scraps while we skeptics feast on an endless flow of biased money.”
Coronavirus Blowback: Trump Threatens to Withhold Funds from the “China Centric” UN WHO
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 7, 2020
Science Junket? “Musicologist”, Others, Jet To Ecuador On “Expedition Anthropocene” …And For Lots Of Hiking
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 17, 2020
Litigation Issues
Rhode Island Climate Lawsuit Was Always About the Money
By Craig Richardson, Real Clear Energy, Apr 13, 2020
Greenwashing vs. Shareholder Wealth: E&E Legal Wants to Know!
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Apr 9, 2020
https://www.masterresource.org/exxon-mobil/greenwashing-ee-legal/
Ohio Attorney General Says Climate Tort Lawsuits Put Constituents at a Disadvantage
By Spencer Walrath, Energy in Depth, Mar 30, 2020
Link to editorial: Who Is Really Benefiting From the Tobacco Settlement Money?
Editorial, Each Breath, American Lung Association, Feb 3, 2016
https://www.lung.org/blog/who-benefit-tobacco-settlement
Greenwashing vs. Shareholder Wealth: E&E Legal Wants to Know!
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Apr 9, 2020
https://www.masterresource.org/exxon-mobil/greenwashing-ee-legal/
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Wind Industry Facing COVID-19 Rushes to Tax Credit Finish Line
By Vince Bielski, Real Clear Energy, Apr 7, 2020
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA Proposes to Retain Current Standards for Particulate Matter
By Marlow Lewis, CEI, Apr 17, 2020
https://cei.org/blog/epa-proposes-retain-current-standards-particulate-matter
EPA issues rule critics say threatens power plant pollution regulation
By Rachel Frazin and Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Apr 16, 2020
“The finalized rule doesn’t roll back the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS). Instead, it undermines the rule by preventing the agency from weighing certain “co-benefits” in its justification for the standards.”
[SEPP Comment: So-called co-benefits can be virtually anything.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Russia paid a heavy price to end the oil price war
By Pismennaya, Arkhipov, and Meyer, World Oil, Apr 13, 2020
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/4/13/russia-paid-a-heavy-price-to-end-the-oil-price-war
Half of UK Carbon Emissions Come From Overseas
By Ben Webster, The Times, Via GWPF, Apr 16, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/half-of-uk-carbon-emissions-come-from-overseas/
Energy Issues — US
How coronavirus is changing electricity usage, in 3 charts
By Sierra Garcia, Grist, Apr 10, 2020
https://grist.org/energy/how-coronavirus-is-changing-electricity-usage-in-3-charts/
NYISO: Power Consumption Down as Much as 18%
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag. Apr 16, 2020
https://www.powermag.com/nyiso-power-consumption-down-as-much-as-18/
Link to report: Coronavirus will disrupt North America power markets for at least
18 months: North America power and renewables March 2020 STO
By Rob Whaley, et al. Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, March 2020
https://www.powermag.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/napsstomarchbrochurewoodmac.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Why no satellite photos of pollution reduction as shown over China? Could it be the emissions from US power plants are very clean, largely invisible except for condensing water vapor?]
New Virginia law could be Atlantic Coast Pipeline’s greatest barrier yet
By Elizabeth McGowan, Energy News Network, Apr 13, 2020
“HB 167 requires state regulators to consider whether pipeline capacity is needed for reliability before approving projects.”
[SEPP Comment: The Virginia government apparently believes offshore wind is reliable?]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Judge cancels Keystone XL pipeline permit
By John Bowden, The Hill, Apr 16, 2020
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/493082-judge-cancels-keystone-xl-pipeline-permit
“According to The Associated Press, Judge Brian Morris ruled in favor of environmental groups who argued that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ plan to construct the pipeline over rivers did not properly take endangered species into consideration.”
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Futurist: Oil Industry Doomed by ChiCom-19 Because Climate Change…
By David Middleton, WUWT, Apr 17, 2020
Link to article: After COVID-19, The Oil Industry Will Not Return To “Normal”
By Wal van Lierop, Forbes, Apr 5, 2020
[SEPP Comment: In a dynamic industry, what is Normal?]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
New York Has 1,300 Reasons Not To Close Indian Point
By Robert Bryce, Forbes, Apr 12, 2020
Next-Gen Nuclear Power
Bold new reactor designs promise safe, clean electricity.
James B. Meigs, City Journal, Winter 2020 [H/t Paul DeWitt]
https://www.city-journal.org/next-generation-nuclear-power
“The finished reactor will stand vertically inside a steel containment vessel about 15 feet wide and 75 feet tall.”
“Alone, a single SMR of this type will generate a modest 60 megawatts of electricity. That is enough to power about 40,000 homes.”
[SEPP Comment: About the same size as the Minuteman missile silo: 12 feet (3.7 m) in diameter and 80 feet (24.4 m).]
U.S. Nuclear Industry Shaved Generating Costs by 7.6% Compared to 2018
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Apr 16, 2020
https://www.powermag.com/u-s-nuclear-industry-shaved-generating-costs-by-7-6-compared-to-2018/
Link to report: Nuclear by the Numbers
By Harsh Desai, Nuclear Energy Institute, April 2020
https://www.nei.org/resources/fact-sheets/nuclear-by-the-numbers
Sellafield research uncovers microbial life in [nuclear] fuel ponds
By Staff Writers, Manchester UK (SPX), Apr 08, 2020
“Microbes are a group of organisms that, including bacteria and algae, are known to inhabit a wide range of habitats on Earth. Improvements in detection technology in recent years has allowed microorganisms to be detected in environments previously thought to be inhospitable to life.
“Prof Jonathan Lloyd said: “Our research focused on Sellafield’s First Generation Magnox Storage Pond (FGMSP), which is a legacy pond that has both significant levels of radioactivity in conjunction with a highly alkaline pH (11.4), equivalent to domestic bleach.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Supercomputing future wind power rise
Using computers, scientists simulate wind power expansion
Press Release, NSF, Apr 16, 2020
https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=300410&WT.mc_id=USNSF_1
Link to paper: 20% of US electricity from wind will have limited impacts on system efficiency and regional climate
By Pryor, Bathelmie & Shepherd, Nature, Scientific Reports, Jan 17, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-57371-1
From NSF press release: “More than 340,000 wind turbines generated more than 591 gigawatts globally. In the U.S., wind powered the equivalent of 32 million homes and sustained 500 U.S. factories.” Boldface added
[SEPP Comment: Run the supercomputers on wind, without fossil fuel backup, to see if they can be sustained.]
Chart Shows Rise in Wind, Solar; Overall Drop in Energy Use
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag. Apr 9, 2020
https://www.powermag.com/chart-shows-rise-in-wind-solar-overall-drop-in-energy-use/
Link to Energy Flow Charts, 2019
By Staff, Energy, Water, and Carbon Informatics, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, April 8, 2020
“The 2019 drop in rejected energy could be partly contributed to the shift from coal to more efficient gas generation.”
Mississippi gives green light to 1,000-acre solar farm
By Staff Writers, Jackson MS (SPX), Apr 16, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Some of the most productive land this side of the Nile.]
Solar power plants get help from satellites to predict cloud cover
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Apr 15, 2020
link to paper: SCOPE: Spectral cloud optical property estimation using real-time GOES-R longwave imagery
By David P. Larson, et al, Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, Apr 14, 2020
https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/1.5144350
From the abstract: “The output of ground-based, solar power generation systems is strongly dependent on cloud cover, which is the main contributor to solar power variability and uncertainty.” Boldface added
[SEPP Comment: Night or angle of the sun by time of day are not major contributors to solar power variability?]
Wind energy expansion would have $27 billion economic impact
By Brian Wallheimer for Purdue News, West Lafayette IN (SPX) Apr 16, 2020
“Graduate student Gargyea Vunnava’s analysis was developed using a new USA multi-region input-output (MRIO) model that considers how a shock affects not just one segment of the economy, but many interconnected parts and regions.”
[SEPP Comment: Amissing key elements are the costs involved when wind power fails, which will happen.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Ethiopia to Press Ahead With Africa’s Biggest Hydropower Dam
By Samuel Gebre, Bloomberg, Apr 10, 2020
Economic Shutdown Not Leading To Cleaner Air in Germany – Results From Weather Pattern
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 7, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Modern wood stoves have a catalytic combustor (converter) which burns fine particles in the smoke.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Global EV sales to fall 43% in 2020: research
By Staff, Kallanish Energy, Apr 14, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.kallanishenergy.com/2020/04/14/global-ev-sales-to-fall-43-in-2020-research/
Health, Energy, and Climate
Belgium: Coronavirus Hotspot
The death toll you’ve heard almost nothing about.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Apr 15, 2020
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2020/04/15/belgium-coronavirus-hotspot/
[SEPP Comment: This illustrates to a major issue event in western countries: the timing and recording of cause of a death.]
The Bats Behind the Pandemic
By Matt Ridley, His Blog, Apr 9, 2020
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/bats-behind-the-pandemic/
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Trapped In The Drowned Maldives Paradise
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 5, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/04/trapped-in-the-drowned-maldives-paradise/
Social distancing in the Arctic: keep one polar bear length apart while outdoors
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 4, 2020
From Icepeople, Svalbard, The world’s northernmost alternative newspaper
And you thought a virus caused the pandemic
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 15, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/04/15/and-you-thought-a-virus-caused-the-pandemic/
[SEPP Comment: Economic growth caused the pandemic?]
Mashable Says -25C Is Scorching
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 7, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/04/mashable-says-25c-is-scorching/
“Mashable says the red blob over Siberia is scorching.”
Scientific Integrity Melting Six Times Faster Than The 1990s
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 8, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/04/scientific-integrity-melting-six-times-faster-than-the-1990s/
“It may without exaggeration be said that the glaciers [in Eastern Greenland], like those in Norway face the possibility of a catastrophic collapse.” – Dec 17, 1939
ARTICLES
1. ‘Radical Uncertainty’ Review: The Dismal Overreachers
Economists have claimed the right to address many issues outside their discipline’s orbit. This book reminds us how inappropriate that is.
By Joseph Sternberg, WSJ, Apr 12, 2020
Discussed above in the This Week section
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2. How Environmental Movement Plans to Leverage the Coronavirus Pandemic
Activists are pressing governments to tie tougher rules on emissions to post-pandemic stimulus aid
By Sarah McFarlane, WSJ, Apr 6, 2020
TWTW Summary: After falling for the environmental trick that falling air pollution over China is indicative of what is occurring world-wide, the author brings up some of the other tricks environmental advocates are preparing. She states:
“One hopeful development from the coronavirus pandemic: Global air quality is improving dramatically as the outbreak sends many countries into lockdown, climate scientists say.”
“Many researchers, intergovernmental organizations and activists hope the world can learn lessons from the insights the pandemic offers regarding human impact on the environment, and groups including Greenpeace, the International Energy Agency and the World Resources Institute are seizing the crisis as an opportunity to press governments to make industrial stimulus packages contingent on modernizing energy systems.” [Boldface added]
After a few examples the author states:
“A slowdown in activity during the 2009 economic downturn reduced carbon emissions and air pollution, but emissions rose 6% the following year, data from the International Energy Agency showed, as governments unleashed stimulus programs to reinvigorate growth.
“A decade later the mood is different. Many activist groups and climate scientists feel encouraged by the Paris agreement on climate goals signed by governments in 2015 and a growing industrial impetus to reduce carbon emissions.
“This time around, governments are more engaged on climate issues and under pressure to meet national targets, which could influence the format of the trillions of dollars of stimulus packages expected to come.
“‘We are asked by many governments around the world to give them advice on how they can shape the energy component of these stimulus packages in order to boost the energy resilience and accelerate the energy transition,’ said Fatih Birol, executive director at the IEA.
“Greenpeace U.K. signaled that it plans to press the U.K. government to be tough on companies that receive stimulus funds. ‘Any loans must come with strings attached to reduce emissions so that in the months to come the government can steer high-carbon industries toward the cleaner, healthier and more resilient future we all need,’ said Fiona Nicholls, a climate campaigner for the group.”
The author lists a ….. Quote of the Week:, …… and a …. Number of the Week:
So how about a “headline” story of the week, to wit:
And here I’ve been thinking all these years that I knew about making beer. Such as this:
“Fermentation is the process by which yeast converts the glucose in the wort to ethyl alcohol and carbon dioxide gas — giving the beer both its alcohol content and its carbonation.”
I guess I should study up on the new CAGW science.
“There’s a place for those tools, but economics habitually overreaches. Modern economists assume that whatever outcome their models predict must be axiomatically rational. When human beings fail to act according to these predictions, it is taken as a failure of the people, not the model.”
One problem with economics is that humans may BE behaving rationally. A human’s rational , evolution driven, goal is NOT to produce more wealth, but to maximize his or her share of the next generation’s genes,
Someone suppressing wealth creation while maintaining power is doing just that. A poorer country with that individual in charge will maximize his genetic contribution to the next generation, while a country full of wealthy, free individuals may well leave his progeny in the dust,
According to Deutsche Welle, “While the virus was certainly not engineered in a laboratory, this doesn’t mean we haven’t played a role in the current pandemic. Human impingement on natural habitats, biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation are making virus spillover events much more likely, a major new study from scientists in Australia and the US has found.”
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-pandemic-linked-to-destruction-of-wildlife-and-worlds-ecosystems/a-53078480
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2019.2736
By the looks of it, climate change alarmists and environmental fanatics still want to try to collectively blame humanity by fallaciously conflating this Covid-19 epidemic with climate change and lack of environmental protection. Talk about desperation.
Rather than seek courageous advisors who could coax U.S. politicians into reopening their economies, we have the politicians seeking out environmentalists for advice on how to keep economies locked down until they can be completely redesigned to not work?
The end-is-nigh, repent, folks are always around, aren’t they?
“which in turn will cause the temperature to rise (by how much?)”
What temperature is rising? The average temperature? What does the average temperature tell you? If maximum temperatures are coming down while minimum temperatures are going up just what effect does that have on evaporation?
BREAKING: Crude oil goes negative for the first time ever
I used to work with numerical models for analysis and prediction of oil and gas reservoir performance, and then later in my career, for oil and gas well and gathering system performance, steady and non-steady state types. Therefore I disagree with your Step 3 of the modelling process you have outlined. You do not design your model on the basis of the “best data”. You design the model on the best understanding of the physics and science of the system you are attempting to model. You then use actual data to vet your model.
Regards, Brian