Hopeful: Summary of Wuhan #Coronavirus Therapies and Potential Cures

Guest post by Rud Istvan,

In the 3/19 Wuhan virus briefing with the FDA, team Trump made much of the possibilities for two therapeutic candidates, chloroquine and remdesivir. Having now done informed basic research on both, I found their stories intrinsically interesting, while enabling an early assessment of their chances of success. Hence this hopeful guest post.

Background

Wuhan coronavirus is an enveloped positive sense single strand RNA virus, meaning its core genetic RNA code is just one long chain coding directly for several proteins, surrounded first by a protective viral protein capsid coat, and then a lipid membrane ‘envelope’ from which project so called “E” (for envelope) and “S” (for spike) proteins. The S protein is what the virus uses to bind to and then invade the lung’s epithelial cells in order to hijack those cell’s reproductive machinery to make copies of itself using its RNA polymerase, itself encoded in about 2/3 of the core viral genetics. The newly assembled virions that then bud out to infect new cells also eventually kill the infected epithelial cell. Covid 19 disease is caused both by the death of those cells and the immune system’s eventual response to the infection.

The S spikes are also the reason this virus class is named corona, because the spikes make it look under SEM like the virus is wearing a crown.

Chloroquine

These are actually two closely related anti-malarials, hydroxychloroquine (the small French trial) and chloroquine phosphate (the larger Chinese trial). Both were developed in the 1950’s, and interestingly the main use now is to treat rheumatoid arthritis rather than malaria (which evolved resistance).

The discovery that certain classes of anti-malarials also affect rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was made quite by accident in 1951 by an asute doctor treating malaria in an RA patient. The problem then was the side effects of chronic RA use made them unacceptable for RA. The chloroquines were developed expressly as ‘milder’ side effect anti-malarials, and in the mid to late 1950’s there were a number of papers (I reviewed several for this post) reporting good RA safety and efficacy leading to global approvals for that indication.

The mechanism of chloroquine action on RA has long been well known. It increases a cell’s lysosomal pH. (Lysosomes are membrane bound cellular organelles [think tiny balloons inside the cell floating at a lower pH in the higher pH cytosol] containing about 50 enzymes, discovered and named in 1955.) This in turn changes their ‘leaked’ enzyme balance into the cytosol, which then inhibits the cell’s RA tissue antigen signaling, which in turn reduces the immune system’s attack on the RA tissue, slowing (but usually not stopping) progression of RA tissue damage.

The reason the Chinese and then the French thought to use chloroquine against Wuhan coronavirus is this same mechanism of action, albeit with different sequelae. The viral S protein binds to the epithelial cell wall’s angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor. Raising lysosomal pH changes (via indirect enzymatic action) the ‘shape’ of ACE2 enough that the S protein cannot bind to it, thus preventing cell infection. Chloroquine changes the cell ‘lock’ so the viral ‘key’ doesn’t work. Does not undo damage from infected cells, nor prevent an infected person from shedding existing viable virus, but does stop the spread in an infected person’s body—a promising therapeutic for those testing positive.

Since safety is well known (the main side affect is retinopathy [vision problems] in 25% of patients over 50 that resolves [slowly] after discontinuation), the main FDA legal issue (FDCA Act of 1906 as amended) issue is to determine dosing and duration for this new indication. But for starters, the standard RA 250mg once a day generic cheap pill should suffice for emergency use authorization (EUA). As a ‘Big Pharma’ goodwill gesture, today (3/19) Bayer announced it donated 3 million 250mg chloroquine phosphate pills to the US to get started.

Remdesivir

This is a novel antiviral from Gilead that has a somewhat checkered past. It was originally developed for Ebola, where in African trials a few years ago it was shown reasonably safe but not very effective. It did, however, show efficacy against SARS and MERS in vitro. And, importantly, the NEJM reported a positive case outcome in Seattle patient zero under a compassionate use exception. The patient had visited Wuhan, returned to Seattle, began displaying symptoms, and was hospitalized on symptom day 3. By symptom day 8 X-ray showed clear lower respiratory tract viral pneumonia (diagnostic ‘ground glass’) and supplemental oxygen was started. Patient worsened, and intravenous antibiotics were started day 9. Patient worsened (proving viral pneumonia), so attending physicians consulted with FDA then had Gilead rush the experimental drug by air, with intravenous treatment starting day 10. Patient improved in 24 hours, was saved, and has since been discharged. For those interested, there is this NEJM case report providing a very hopeful proof of principle.

The reason Gilead tested it against SARS and MERS even though those two episodes died out naturally has to do with Remdesivir’s novel mechanism of action. The ‘drug’ is just an analog of the amino acid adenosine, one of the 20 amino acid (only, in all life on Earth, proving a common genetic ancestor) building blocks the viral polymerase uses to ‘assemble’ new copies of the viral RNA genetic code. The polymerase does not recognize the small difference between adenosine and the analog. Flood an infected cell with enough remdesivir molecules, and the polymerase will eventually grab one and add it to the ‘building’ RNA copy. Remdesivir is enough different that the polymerase is then blocked from adding any more amino acids to the RNA chain, so viral replication halts. Neat very basic molecular genetics provided at a basic science 101 level.

What Gilead scientists recognized was that the RNA code for Ebola RNA polymerase was very similar to SARS and MERS RNA polymerase, hence the in vitro testing. And when the Chinese first published the roughly 30,000 base RNA code for Wuhan coronavirus in January, it was evident immediately that it was another good RNA polymerase match, so they started immediate in vitro testing once viral samples were in hand.

Aside from price (Gilead is infamous for its Hep C cure that ‘only’ costs about $100,000 per treated patient), and scaled up availability (none yet, same issue that killed my 3 of 4 EUA for a persistent hand sanitizer in the 2009 swine flu pandemic), there are questions about dosing and treatment timing. There is some thought that remdesivir may not be useful past symptom day 10 or 11, typically when a patient worsens to need an ICU ventilator. The concern logic is simple. Remdesivir blocks virion replication in an infected cell, but not its spread to newly infected cells by virions from previously infected cells. So basically a quantity/quality argument saying eventually blocking further spread when you already need a ventilator for viral pneumonia is futile. Those clinical questions are why China is conducting a double blind (drug/placebo) trial on ~790 patients in Beijing and Gilead is conducting an unblinded smaller trial in the US, starting in Nebraska with Diamond Princess patients. The first results from both will be available sometime in April.

Further observations

Neither chloroquine nor remdesivir are just luck. The rapidity of their development against Wuhan virus reflects the enormously powerful insights that molecular genetics and molecular biology and their associated tools (sequencing, PCR, oligomer synthesis, protein structure) now bring to science and medicine. To echo the contrasts to climate science in my first post on Wuhan, this is as if we actually had now the computational power to avoid parameterization in climate models. Climatologists do not, but virologists do.

Chloroquine probably works, as AW previously posted. It would solve this pandemic’s key issue, progression to viral pneumonia requiring ICU ventilation. New York’s Governor Cuomo said yesterday that he has been told that without ‘bending the curve’ based on Italy, New York will require 27000 ventilators in a few weeks when the state only has 3000. Invoking the Defense Procurement Act cannot solve that mismatch in time without a ‘bent curve’ achieved via social distancing, frequent hand washing, and avoiding touching the mouth, nose, and eyes. All three are difficult but not impossible. Ambassador Dr. Birx is pretty clear about the dire consequences of Millennials ignoring these basic common sense recommendations during Spring Break this week in Florida. Here in ground zero Fort Lauderdale, our public beaches are closed, and the closure is policed.

But chloroquine still has the same Wuhan issue illustrated by its previous use for malaria–evolving resistance. RNA viruses like Wuhan coronavirus mutate rapidly (explained in my first post on this topic). The most conserved protein is necessarily the RNA polymerase. We know this from influenza, where it is the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase envelope proteins (equivalent to Wuhan S) that mutate so the annual vaccine is never ‘right’. Chloroquine may well be effective now, but if Wuhan coronavirus becomes endemic (now likely given its spread in Africa and Southeast Asia), then it is not a long-term solution like a vaccine. But it will probably buy the precious time to get a vaccine.

Remdesivir may be a longer-term therapeutic solution, because it tricks the conserved RNA polymerase. But its cost and efficacy remain to be determined.

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Coram Deo
March 20, 2020 10:11 am

*****CORONAVIRUS: STOP GOING OUT – IT IS GOING TO KILL PEOPLE – WARNS ICU DOCTOR
video – 8 minutes 45 seconds

Robert W. Turner
Reply to  Coram Deo
March 20, 2020 2:45 pm

“Stop this virus” ROFLMAO… that to me sounds like stopping the wind. Dr. Chicken Little et al don’t seem to realize that there is no stopping influenza or cold viruses. These viruses were around long before humans travelled the world easily and increased transmission rates.

The sad fact is that everyone that lives long enough in modern societies today will probably get Covid-19 eventually, if not this year then next, if not next year then some year after that. Shutting down the global economy has the potential to be magnitudes worse than the worst case scenario with this novel cold virus. Millions of people died from economic hardship related causes in the USA alone during the Great Depression, we’d better hope a new cold is the worst thing that comes out of all of this.

MarkW
Reply to  Robert W. Turner
March 20, 2020 3:18 pm

I don’t know where you get your history from, but you need better sources. There were no deaths from economic hardship in the US during the depression.

Yes, people will probably get the virus someday. However they will be a lot better off if they get it at a time when hospital beds are available and the medical system isn’t in the process of breaking down from over use.
That’s why we try to isolate, in order to slow down the number of people getting the disease at any given time.

mario lento
Reply to  MarkW
March 20, 2020 3:27 pm

Well: I think the idea is that there is significant evidence, regardless of specific reasons, that wealth affects length of life. So picking whether or not people starve to death may not present the full picture. MIT has done studies, and there are lots of other studies.

In US there is less likelihood of people dying because they cannot afford to heat their homes, like in UK. But in general, wealth of a nation leads to decreased mortality, me thinks.

Bob boder
Reply to  MarkW
March 20, 2020 3:43 pm

Mark W is correct life expectancy increased during the depression era.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Bob boder
March 20, 2020 7:32 pm

My dad (1926-2017) told me that people took care of each other during the depression and WWII, which made all the difference from today. Now folks try to “watch out for #1” and “make sure nobody gets mine”.
That might have been a mitigating factor for the less fortunate of that previous era.

Dave
Reply to  Bob boder
March 21, 2020 11:52 am

Penicillin discovered in 1928. If looking for a cause for life span increases during the depression, that was surely also a factor. Diet changes and reduction of smoking (did it?) May also have contributed.

Buckeyebob
Reply to  MarkW
March 21, 2020 3:12 am

Life spans apparently actually increased during the Great Depression of the 1930’s in the US. See below link for some interesting explanations.

https://www.history.com/news/great-depression-economy-life-expectancy

But the WWII came along, and well, we all know what happened then.

schuylaar
Reply to  MarkW
March 21, 2020 10:39 am

There were no deaths from economic hardship in the US during the depression.

and GOOGLE says:

Of six causes of death that compose about two-thirds of total mortality in the 1930s (Fig. 4), only suicides increased during the Great Depression. Suicide mortality peaked with unemployment, in the most recessionary years, 1921, 1932, and 1938.Oct 13, 2009

so, YOU ARE WRONG and GOOGLE is your friend

ferdberple
Reply to  Robert W. Turner
March 21, 2020 2:56 pm

“Stop this virus” ROFLMAO…
===≠========
That isn’t the issue. If everyone gets sick on the same day, we don’t have the 5 million ICU beds we would need 10 days later, and the death rate would skyrocket.

But if we can spread this out over time, we can dramatically reduce the death rate. Same number of people get sick, but different numbers of sick get life saving medical treatment.

Reply to  Coram Deo
March 20, 2020 8:37 pm

Good paper, thank you Rud. Lots of bog words. 😉

I’m sending a copy to my doctor.

Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
March 20, 2020 9:19 pm

big words

Thomas Mee
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
March 21, 2020 3:47 pm

I liked “bog” better. They sure bogged me down, right clicking for a definition every other word!

Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
March 21, 2020 1:30 am

“Taiwan Says It Warned WHO About Coronavirus In December, But Its Warnings Were Ignored”
https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/20/who-taiwan-coronavirus-warning/?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=12322

More grumpy pre-coffee news:

I was scheduled to travel to SE Asia via China on 4Feb2020 and I cancelled because of cascading quarantines due to the corona virus. Now we learn that a coronavirus carrier off a cruise ship was allowed back into Canada on 21Feb2020 without being quarantined – MORE THAN THREE WEEKS AFTER I CANCELLED MY TRIP on 28Jan2020.

I don’t claim to be that well-informed on global health issues, rarely bother to take my vitamins, and am not interested with the popular obsessions of personal health that fascinate younger generations. I don’t watch TV news or subscribe to a newspaper. So how the heck did I know more than three weeks ahead of our slothful Canadian government that something was seriously amiss?

All our government imbeciles had to do was read the news – on January 31, 2020 the USA banned foreign nationals who had travelled to China from entering the USA, and any US citizen who has traveled in China had to undergo health screening upon entry into the country and was asked to self-quarantine for 14 days.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/1/31/21117403/trump-coronavirus-ban-travel-non-us-citizens-china

This is what I’ve come to expect from Canadian governments at all levels – at best, they are asleep at the switch. More likely the Libranos were busy plotting a way to scam billions of taxpayers’ money for personal use – the Justin Trudeau Liberals make the Jean Chretien crooks look like choir boys.

josie
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
March 21, 2020 4:59 am

Well in Holland a majority of parliamentarians were refusing a debate on coronavirus als late as jan. 28 and jan.29. Now we’re shy of being a police state like most countries. Time for coffee I guess.

Harry Davidson
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
March 21, 2020 9:15 am

You answered your own question. You told what you don’t use as news sources, all the others are better.

ferdberple
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
March 21, 2020 2:48 pm

Two of my relatives returned from Vietnam to Canada March 7rh. They had 2 observations. Eveything in Vietnam was closed and noone at YVR mentioned anything about 14 day self-isolation.

We returned to Canada from the US March 2nd by car, same thing. No health questions.

From my experience, it was only after Sophie Trudeau tested positive that the Canadian government began to get off its lazy ass.

Much too busy jet setting around the world giving out taxpayer money and snapping selfies. Karma is a bitch.

Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
March 22, 2020 3:46 am

PRIME MINISTER JUSTIN TRUDEAU CONVENES THE INCIDENT RESPONSE GROUP FOR AN UPDATE ON THE CORONAVIRUS SITUATION
February 2, 2020
Ottawa, Ontario
https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/readouts/2020/02/02/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-convenes-incident-response-group-update

Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau convened the Incident Response Group to discuss the Government of Canada’s response to the novel coronavirus,

Minister of Foreign Affairs François-Philippe Champagne, lawyer

Minister of Health Patty Hajdu, Bachelor of Arts, Master of Public Administration

Minister of National Defence Harjit Sajjan, former detective with the Vancouver Police Department, a former Lieutenant Colonel with the British Columbia Regiment

and Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Bill Blair, 39 years with the Toronto Police Service, the last decade as its Chief of Police.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU’S CORONAVIRUS TEAM: A LAWYER, TWO EX-COPS, AND A BACHELOR OF ARTS. ZERO QUALIFICATIONS FOR THIS TASK.
PLUS ÇA CHANGE, PLUS C’EST LA MÊME CHOSE.

Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
March 25, 2020 4:02 pm

CANADA INVOKES QUARANTINE ACT: Mandatory 14 Day isolation
March 25, 2020
https://torontosun.com/news/national/canada-invokes-quarantine-act-mandatory-14-day-isolation

Watch Justin Trudeau trying to look Prime-Ministerial as mandatory quarantine of those entering Canada from foreign countries is announced.

BUT TRUDEAU AND HIS FELLOW-IMBECILES ARE TWO MONTHS TOO LATE.

See my note at:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/20/wuhan-coronavirus-therapies-scientific-background/#comment-2942967

I have no medical background, but I KNEW ENOUGH TO cancel my foreign trip on 28Jan2020 – THAT WAS THE TIME TO IMPOSE THIS QUARANTINE. NOW IS TOO LATE.

Russ Wood
Reply to  Coram Deo
March 21, 2020 8:30 am

There’s a horrible tale on https://going-postal.com/2020/03/fred-and-doris/ telling the story of an old couple subjected to Boris’s ‘self exclusion’. It basically tells the tale of a ‘don’t-care’ government attitude. Now, as an ex-Pommie, I’d like to think that it was merely carelessness on the part of the UK rule makers, but then, as a South African, I remember the stories of the Anglo-Boer war ‘concentration camps’ and the ‘don’t-care’ attitudes that led to so many deaths by disease. Having grown up in the post WW2 years, I have to say: Not My Country!

John Tillman
Reply to  Russ Wood
March 21, 2020 1:52 pm

Yet, for whatever reasons, the UK has suffered far fewer deaths per million population than EU countries. As noted, Germany isn’t comparable because of different statistical and medical practices, eg not testing those who’ve died of pneumonia and other causes for Wuhan virus.

Italy has suffered 80 deaths per million, Spain 30, the Netherlands 8.0, but Britain only 3.5 so far. Being an island might help.

Hereward
Reply to  John Tillman
March 22, 2020 3:00 am

If you look at Willis’ latest coronavirus post, you will see that UK is only just below Italy for death rate against time since first case. If you subdivide the UK deaths into London and ‘the rest’, London has had about 10 deaths per million, and the rest about 2.5.

John Tillman
Reply to  Hereward
March 22, 2020 3:38 am

So far in the US, cases and deaths are also concentrated in big cities, and Italian cases in the North, with so many Chinese workers.

The U.K. is unlikely to track Italy in cases and deaths.

John Tillman
Reply to  Hereward
March 22, 2020 9:49 am

Willis’ graph starting all curves from time of first death shows the UK far below Italy.

FTM
March 20, 2020 10:14 am

“as been told that without ‘bending the curve’ based on Italy, New York will require 27000 ventilators in a few weeks when the state only has 3000”

Spare us.

Those stats are not based on infection increases but testing increases. For all we know real infection rates could be decreasing in reality.

So what about Italy? May be all there drugs are Mafia counterfeits or otherwise faulty and that’s killing Italians. Meanwhile the Koreans are using quinine and the Israeli govt. is sending millions of pills to the US.

Trump’s fear spreading newsconferences have made the country crazy, and certainly susceptible for misleading statistics. Sound familiar?

SSM
March 20, 2020 10:16 am

Quinine derivatives are also Zinc ionophores, they increase the concentration of intracellular zinc. The viral replicase enzyme of n-COV-19 is gummed up by Zinc slowing replication.

Max
Reply to  SSM
March 20, 2020 12:15 pm

I have B-blood type (I naturally lack the antigen that is most effective against viruses)
I catch every virus that goes around taking weeks to months to get better. I’ve tried every product, by far the most effective is “zinc”
I’ve tried zinc throat sprays and nose sprays which are not effective as the zinc rapid melts. If you have a sore throat, break up a tablet and place small pieces between your cheek and gum and let it slowly melt. Most effective before bed absorbing all night, when you wake up the sore throat is gone. Do you feel a cough coming on? Crush a small amount between your fingers and breathe the dust, sucking air sharply. Same with the runny nose, crush a small amount into dust with your fingers (smaller than half a pea) and breathe it in. The powder will stick to the membranes delivering the medicine where it’s needed. The results are amazingly quick and will stop a cold before it starts.

mario lento
Reply to  Max
March 20, 2020 12:29 pm

Max:
I am B+ and grew up catching every dang cold, flu and sinus infection that went around. I was not aware of blood type vs virus until recently where I read O type is most resistant and A type least resistant. Is B type in the middle?

I have asthma when around cats and some other allergens, and get bronchitis every time I catch a cold. Running and cardio allowed me to gain control over it –which when I was 12 years old was against my doctors orders to be active. So I decided to not follow his advice.

At 55, and since my mid 40’s, I don’t catch so many, and when I do, they are extremely short lived.
It’s the Zn (CA/Mag/Zn) Vitamin D3, C, quercetin, juiced powders, that made the difference in my life. The thing is, I was most afraid of growing old and dying of suffocation. Now I am more robust than when I was in my youth.

One funny thing… when I get sick the point where I crave steak I know I’m just about over it. It’s a fluffy science barometer for me. Good health!

Reply to  mario lento
March 20, 2020 2:59 pm

I’m A1, rh- and I nearly never suffer from any virus, only rhinovirrus. Rarely a influenzal infection, with low fiever, often without, so not knowing if it was a viral infection.
Born 52, smoking.

Tom Bauch
Reply to  mario lento
March 20, 2020 3:36 pm

Please expand on the ‘juiced powders’, please…

mario lento
Reply to  Tom Bauch
March 20, 2020 3:45 pm

Please expand on the ‘juiced powders’, please…

I vary the use of brands. Costco used to have a green green powder called Amazing Greens. They also still have a powder with lots of reds and greens, called Juce, Trader Joes used to have “Reds” and “Greens”

I like to make sure I get all the colors and a huge variety of well known organic juiced veggies so that all of the phyto’s are available to feed me.

Today I continue to use Juce and my wife is a naturopath and orders greens called Nourish Greens by Apex Energetics.

She can tell what I am in lack of through muscle testing, but I also eat way more of these juices than is called for.

I do this mostly because we will probably never stop finding specific vitamins and nutrients to supplement, but food has a nearly infinite ability to provide what we need, especially plants.

I swear by them, and have gotten rid of cancers that doctors promised would not go away.

People say it’s anti oxidants, or give a myriad other reasons. All I know if that my health has turned around over the past 15 years as I expected age would force it in the other direction!

Carbon500
Reply to  mario lento
March 21, 2020 4:05 am

Mario: like you, as a child I developed bronchitis after every cold. These attackes were sheer hell – I’d be fighting for every breath I took during the night, and vomiting as well. Our local doctors were wonderful, a home visit and antibiotics to follow brought relief. I had pneumonia twice as a child as well.
My doctor advised exercise – perhaps swimming, but the idea of being exposed to chlorinated water at the local pool didn’t appeal to me or my parents. Then I took it into my head to learn to ride a bicycle , at around age ten. I rapidly became a cycling fanatic, I rode hard, even trying a bit of racing in my teens. My bronchitis attacks feel dramatically within a year – the effect of exercise was unbelievable.
My eternal gratitude to my GP, my parents, and my older brother who built up my first bicycle for me. He found an old Raleigh frame which had been poorly brush painted. I stripped it to bare metal, my brother got it sprayed a nice cherry red at a local motor cycle dealership and then assembled it for me. All of those who helped me are gone – they gave me the precuous gift of health, and I remember them with fondness for their kindness.

mario lento
Reply to  Carbon500
March 21, 2020 12:25 pm

Thank you for the comments! Exercise is magical…indeed!

Stephen Richards
Reply to  Max
March 20, 2020 1:34 pm

I’m B- . Not heard of this virus problem before and I’m not going to test it. I have MGUS and diabetes both from unknown sources although I recently read a paper that suggested pylori ? bacteria, those associated with stomach ulcers can trigger both illnesses. The surgeon I had when treated for ulcers said that anglo Saxons lack a certain enzyme which can allow Pylori to thrive. It’s all conjector though

Reply to  Max
March 20, 2020 2:51 pm

When I was child, when a sore throat was knocking at the door, I got a desinfecting tablet of Chinosol to gargle with after dissolving it in water. As I remberer it well because of effectiveness, I used it later too, it’s rare I have a sore throat.
Chinosol is a quinine product, chinolinsulphate-potassiumsulfhate for external use

mario lento
Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 20, 2020 3:06 pm

I carry around with me a little refillable nip in which I use Crown Royal. I get about 30 sips per one once nip… I use it when I feel a cold may be trying to hit me.

Reply to  mario lento
March 22, 2020 5:20 am

Canadian rye whisky – breakfast o champions

mario lento
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
March 22, 2020 12:29 pm

good on ya…!

Adam
Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 21, 2020 6:18 am

There is a suggestion that gargling with mouthwash reduces viral shedding in those already infected. No hard evidence.

chemman
Reply to  Max
March 20, 2020 4:22 pm

I am B+ and almost never catch a cold and have never had the flu. The few colds I do catch is consistently caused from not getting sufficient sleep.

I may be an anomaly to your theory so I am not denying it.

mario lento
Reply to  chemman
March 20, 2020 4:25 pm

Good for you!

That’s why a sample size of 1 is never enough data for true analysis… But whatever you’re doing, keep on doing it… and get sleep unless the pay off is worth it…

philincalifornia
Reply to  mario lento
March 20, 2020 8:21 pm

I saw what you did there ……

mario lento
Reply to  philincalifornia
March 20, 2020 10:40 pm

I thought I was being cute/clever? Please expound sir!

philincalifornia
Reply to  mario lento
March 21, 2020 12:32 am

I saw that you were being cute/clever …..

mario lento
Reply to  philincalifornia
March 21, 2020 12:30 pm

Thank you, philincalornia, I got the error message on a full page warning, so I posted to another thread.

Chris4692
Reply to  chemman
March 21, 2020 7:18 am

I am also B+, never have had the flu, and only get a cold every few years, then it is mild.

So now there is a sample size of 2.

KR Wolf
Reply to  chemman
March 21, 2020 9:34 am

I’m B+ and my immune system eliminates incipient colds, flu, infections in 36 hrs or less.

LdB
Reply to  Max
March 20, 2020 11:15 pm

The whole blood type thing may be a total red herring, no-one has yet determined what the actual proportions of blood groups were in the are of Wuhan affected. They data is blood groups of those who died against WORLD AVERAGES and you get considerable deviation from that in many countries.

Rolf
Reply to  LdB
March 21, 2020 1:42 am

In the study was also a table with total proportions of the blood groups in Wuhan then compared with the infected. Though could of course have other reasons. Let’s say one type of blood live at one side of the city where the infection rate was higher. Will take another study to be sure.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Max
March 21, 2020 8:52 am

I use the snuffing up of salt water into my nose and spitting it out my mouth at the first signs of a cold or flu. You can get a spray at the drugstore. About 1/3 to 1/2 tsp in a cup of warm water – it should not be enough to ‘burn’ your nasal passages. Pour in the palm and suff strongly up your nose. You will swallow a little bit. Add this to washing your hands. For Corona, I don’t know, but it wouldn’t hurt at worst.

It was noticed years ago that North Atlantic fisherman didn’t seem to get these diseases commonly while landlubber friends and family did. Presumably fisherman everywhere get some benefit but rougher seas obviously would be a factor.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Gary Pearse
March 23, 2020 1:55 am

There is a device called a neti pot, looks like a miniature tea kettle.
It is meant to be used with little packets of a salt crystals that is buffered and measured into an amount which will make an isotonic saline solution.
This is poured into one nostril while standing in the shower, and it pours all the way through the sinuses while you keep your head tilted to the side.
After pouring one pot through one nostril, you mix up another batch and pour it through the other side.
Washes out the sinuses but good.
Back when I was on chemo one time I had something going on where my sinuses smelled really awful.
The cure was every day a nasal decongestant, and a antihistamine, and neti pot as many times a day as I could get around to.
I kept it up afterwards.
I think it washes stuff out of the sinuses that accumulates over an entire lifetime.
If you look at a diagram of the sinuses in the face, it is obvious that stuff that gets in there has no easy way to get out…hence neti pot with hot saline.
http://medivisuals1.com/images/products/detail/R15359_01XG.jpg

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
March 23, 2020 1:58 am

Another view:
comment image

mario lento
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
March 23, 2020 9:22 am

I do the same thing using neilmed sinus rinse. It comes with buffered salt mix.
I use spring water heated to about 98F. The right temperature, lack of chlorine and proper salt sooth and work like a charm. I lay back holding my sinuses full of the water for a minute to let it dissolve the dry stuff.

Importantly, DO NOT hold both nostrils when blowing your nose after this, as it will push the water with infection through Eustachian tubes. NOT good!

mario lento
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
March 23, 2020 9:26 am

I do the same thing using neilmed sinus rinse. It comes with buffered salt mix.
I use spring water heated to about 98F. The right temperature, lack of chlorine and proper salt sooth and work like a charm. I lay back holding my sinuses full of the water for a minute to let it dissolve the dry stuff.

Importantly, DO NOT hold both nostrils when blowing your nose after this, as it will push the water with infection through Eustachian tubes. NOT good!

PS fantastic sinus descriptions! No wonder I used to get so many infections.

Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
March 23, 2020 7:45 am

re: “I think it washes stuff out of the sinuses that accumulates over an entire lifetime.”

Hmmmm … Horseradish, hot yellow mustard? Seems to activate the sinus ‘flush’ mechanism too?

Janice Moore
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
March 23, 2020 1:35 pm

Nicholas,

So glad that the chemo worked! (and your sinus treatment, too)

And, very glad that you are still commenting at WUWT… 🙂

Take, over there (well, most people are sound asleep at 1:55 AM 🙂 ),

Your ally for science truth (that’s TRUTH, phone — heh, it tried to insert “fiction” there),

Janice

Janice Moore
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
March 23, 2020 2:29 pm

“Take CARE …”

icisil
Reply to  SSM
March 20, 2020 2:03 pm

Something for those considering Chloroquine to consider if they take ACE inhibitors. Those drugs deplete zinc, so you might need extra zinc to take advantage of chloroquine’s zinc ionophore property.

MikeP
Reply to  SSM
March 20, 2020 2:37 pm

I’ve ordered some quinine supplement tablets as linked in the original WUWT post. Any idea what an appropriate dose might be?

lee
Reply to  MikeP
March 20, 2020 8:45 pm

I have seen 500mg.

In Australia a secret trial has been reported with good results in paptients from a cobination of Kalet, an HIV drug, and hydryxychloroquine. it has been released to 50 hospitals.

LdB
Reply to  MikeP
March 20, 2020 11:40 pm

quinine won’t do anything read again the name of the drug … details matter.

hiskorr
Reply to  LdB
March 21, 2020 9:10 am

Quinine is not good? I’ll have to switch back from G&T? Buggers!

LdB
Reply to  hiskorr
March 21, 2020 8:27 pm

It will help you with malaria but will do nothing for covid19 🙂

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  MikeP
March 21, 2020 9:54 am

MikeP
I strongly advise against self-dosing! You really need to be under the care of a doctor while taking chloroquine. I suggest that you read the following article:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/healthtrending/virus-drug-touted-by-trump-musk-can-kill-in-just-two-grams/ar-BB11rIHa

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
March 21, 2020 12:56 pm

For those strongly advocating for the immediate widespread use of hydroxychloroquine, note what the head of the FDA said during a presidential ‘presser’:

“However, Dr Hahn pointed out some concerns about the drug as a possible treatment for the virus. ‘We may have the right drug, but it might not be in the appropriate dosage form right now, and it might do more harm than good’, he warned.”

Note especially the remarks about side-effects in this article:

https://qz.com/africa/1822701/coronavirus-trump-says-malaria-drug-chloroquine-can-work/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo

And for those who are using Roy Spencer’s remarks about the anti-correlation between COVID-19 and malaria, note the remark that the use of chloroquine has declined in recent years, both because of a loss or efficacy and side-effects.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  MikeP
March 21, 2020 3:47 pm

The 500mg is for Rhumatoid Arthritis. It was mentioned to show that it is comparatively safe at such high doses. Chinese paper indicated from tests that 6.9mg per dose was 90% of optimum. You may have to check to see what other studies for this indicate, but 500mg would seem excessive.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Gary Pearse
March 21, 2020 11:07 pm

I think it is 6.9 milligrams per kilogram.

ghalfrunt
Reply to  MikeP
March 22, 2020 7:05 am

beware side effects – including death! (with 2x safe dose)
https://bnf.nice.org.uk/drug/chloroquine.html

UK-Weather Lass
Reply to  SSM
March 21, 2020 2:26 am

Medcram on YouTube have an interesting video (Coronavirus update 34) explaining the way zinc works to protect the infected cell and why certain factors inhibit its usefulness.

March 20, 2020 10:20 am

How about increasing temperature and, especially, humidity in the offices, homes, schools, cars etc.? It is a well known measure to kill viruses outside of the human body, and to slow down transmission.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3583861/
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/humidity-helps-in-the-fight-against-covid-19-virologists-report-1028995035

TRM
Reply to  Leo Goldstein
March 20, 2020 9:49 pm

UV light and high intensity. Instead of walking around cleaning desks with rags and alcohol sterilize them with UV. I’m not sure what intensity and duration would be needed but some water filters use them to kill off virus contamination. You don’t want to look at it without protective goggles.

Stevek
Reply to  Leo Goldstein
March 21, 2020 3:29 pm

Leo that is good idea. I sent those recommendations to CDC and never heard anything back.

John Tillman
March 20, 2020 10:27 am

After testing in hospitals, on March 17 Italy also listed hydroxychloroquine as a drug with preliminary positive results against Wuhan virus:

https://www.aifa.gov.it/-/azioni-intraprese-per-favorire-la-ricerca-e-l-accesso-ai-nuovi-farmaci-per-il-trattamento-del-covid-19

FTM
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 10:54 am

The Italians should be testing all the medications they been using for counterfeits and defects.

David L. Hagen
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 3:27 pm

Teva to Donate Potential COVID-19 Treatment, Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate Tablets to Hospitals Nationwide

TEL AVIV, Israel & PARSIPPANY, N.J.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Mar 19, 2020–

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (NYSE and TASE: TEVA) announced today the immediate donation of more than 6 million doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets through wholesalers to hospitals across the U.S. to meet the urgent demand for the medicine as an investigational target to treat COVID-19. The company is also looking at additional ways to address the global need.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  John Tillman
March 21, 2020 5:24 am

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/melbourne-scientists-twoyear-coronavirus-preparation-set-to-save-thousands/news-story/c957ea882c0fe579683d16faf63c83ee

HOSPITALS GIVEN HIV, MALARIA MEDS TO FIGHT CORONAVIRUS
A handful of Australian COVID-19 patients – some of the first to be infected with the deadly virus – were successfully medicated with malaria and HIV drugs in a secret trial which will now be rolled out around Australia within days.

Such was the success of the secret treatments fifty Australian hospitals will be given HIV medication Kaletra and malaria treatment hydroxychloroquine in a clinical trial which promises to “cure” the virus.

Scissor
March 20, 2020 10:30 am

Don’t grow old (eventually this is a problem). Stay healthy (mostly in your own control).

Sheri
Reply to  Scissor
March 20, 2020 1:34 pm

“Don’t grow old”? Then you’re dead……

Scissor
Reply to  Sheri
March 20, 2020 2:17 pm

Yes, eventually it’s a problem.

In Mel Brook’s German accent, “Ja, Herr Schwartz is a heavy sleeper.”

Dr Deanster
March 20, 2020 10:31 am

Hey Rud ….. what have you read about the combination of HCQ and Azithromycin?

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Dr Deanster
March 20, 2020 11:21 am

It was the combination used to clear one cohort of the French patients in 6 days. IIRC, chloroquine alone cleared 60 percent while the combination cleared ‘all’ in 6 days. Why azithromycin antibiotic helps dunno unless some of the pneumonia was in fact secondary bacterial pneumonia, which quite common especially in elderly patients—the reason there are pneumonia vaccines for the two most common causative bacteria.
Maybe an artifact. The study was small (40 patients) and the endpoint a bit murky (no detectable virus in the nose and throat is NOT the lower respiratory tract). There is a youtube of a US doctor analyzing the study rather critically.

mario lento
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 20, 2020 11:46 am

Rud: Great article and very well written!

That is my experience wrt to the use of azithromycin. Secondary infection is treated with antibiotics. In my case, I was reasonably sure I had no bacterial infection and waved the antibiotics. In no way did I want to kill off my hopefully healthy gut flora with antibiotics.

At 55, my immune system is evidently still working well enough to enjoy (/sarc) short duration viral infections… feed the body with loads of mixed nutrients… carefully. Be in touch with how you feel… which is tough since we are relatively good at feeling change, but not good at feeling stasis.

One needs to invest in keeping the old body ahead of the curve, where medical does not really chime in much in that respect. So it’s a lot of anecdotal research and accumulation of knowledge –that requires conscious change in what works and does not. Fluffy science sometimes.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 20, 2020 11:58 am

no detectable virus in the nose and throat is NOT the lower respiratory tract)
Don’t forget, the corona tests are based on curtailment exactly there, thoroat and nose, so what.

Robert W. Turner
Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 20, 2020 2:30 pm

Nose and throat are primarily where the virus is spread from?

mario lento
Reply to  Robert W. Turner
March 20, 2020 2:38 pm

Nose and throat are good places to swab for the virus. It will be there.

However, the virus attacks the lungs… not really easy place to collect a sample. But the mucus from the lungs will make its way to sinus and throat through cilia action.

Reply to  Robert W. Turner
March 20, 2020 4:21 pm

Sneezing and choughing is the way of infection, using the way as Mario wrotee it.

mario lento
Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 20, 2020 4:23 pm

Yup! Basic stuff now. And I am NOT a doctor.

Tapio Rantanen
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 20, 2020 12:32 pm

The French treatment results with combined HCQ and Azithromycin are encouraging, and can be seen in this video presented by prof. Didier Roualt (in French)
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/coronavirus-diagnostiquons-et-traitons-premiers-resultats-pour-la-chloroquine/
The table at 15:24 shows a difference between No treatment vs. HCQ alone vs. HCQ + Azithromycin, although the patient number is rather small. Concerning Azithromycin, there are several studies in the PubMed showing it having antiviral activity, too. Personally, if I would catch the COVID-19 with pulmonary symptoms, I would prescribe myself HCQ + Azithromycin + zinc.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Tapio Rantanen
March 21, 2020 9:29 pm

15% of the patients “dropped out” because of death or transfer to the ICU

Dr Deanster
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 20, 2020 4:27 pm

I was just wanting to see if you had any new info. Azithromycin also has some antiviral properties, particularly against rhinovirus. It is a protein synthesis inhibitor and may have some secondary impacts on the ability of the virus to replicate its proteins, though I don’t know if SARScoV2 produces its own enzymes for protein synthesis or if it uses the host cell ribosomes.

Anyway, I know it is cheap, as is HCQ, …. seems worth it to give it a try, cause as the French study noted, the CQ has an effect on its own. The Redemisvir is probably going to be expensive unless the gov makes them sell it in the cheap.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Dr Deanster
March 24, 2020 8:09 am

And price is your main concern when you are fighting for your life with viral pneumonia?

BFL
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 20, 2020 5:39 pm

Also saw a report that chloroquine can also reduce or eliminate cytokine storm which for many COVID patients is the fatal factor causing lung fluid buildup. Any comments on how this works and effectiveness of chloroquine in preventing?

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  BFL
March 24, 2020 8:10 am

There are better drugs for that.

gringojay
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 20, 2020 7:04 pm

“Azithromycin inhibits constitutive airway epithelial sodium channels in vitro and modulates downstream pathogenesis in vitro” by Fujikawa’s team in Japan is available in English on line as free full text.

I am not certain the French chose Azithromycin merely on the basis of antimicrobial action. There are some indications the drug contributes disproportionally to anti-biotic spawned bacterial drug resistance &, as such, employed with clinical discretion.

By the way R. Istvan – I’ve enjoyed reading your WUWT comments over the years & find them well written.

nw sage
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 20, 2020 8:32 pm

Thanks Rud for the article. Much appreciated. I am now a lot less dumb than I was!

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 21, 2020 9:19 pm

15% of the French Patients were removed from the trial because of death and transfer to ICU

26 started in the trial, 1 died, 3 went to ICU,
20 stayed in the trial, and the results are from those who stayed in

beware the survivor bias

I’m guessing skeptics forget the dedication to statistical significance.

John Tillman
March 20, 2020 10:34 am

Based upon reported cases, US death rate has fallen to 1.35%, but many cases must be going unreported.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Our current case rate of 50 per million population is about on a par with the UK (48).

Dr Deanster
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 10:50 am

Not to be picky, but it’s really not accurate to say “the United States”, as this pandemic is primarily isolated to NY. WA seems to plateaued. CA seems to be containing it fairly well too. All the other states are in just double digits or in the 100s.

I’d like to see the FDA actively evaluate these treatments immediately. In particular, HCQ + Azith, both cheap generics.

John Tillman
Reply to  Dr Deanster
March 20, 2020 11:18 am

True, the disease, if not the virus, is indeed concentrated in a few big, mainly coastal cities, although every state has reported at least one case, with WV the last to be hit.

Mohatdebos
Reply to  Dr Deanster
March 20, 2020 1:38 pm

I have been wondering why the U.S. experts are so resistant to using Chloroquine, which is cheap and readily available. Growing up in Pakistan, I was prescribed Chloroquine twice for malaria. Subsequently, I was advised by my company to take Chloroquine for two weeks before I traveled to malaria infested area. I never suffered from adverse side effects. Is it because they prefer the expensive, U.S. developed Remdesivir?

Reply to  Mohatdebos
March 20, 2020 3:06 pm

FDA will test it too.

MarkW
Reply to  Mohatdebos
March 20, 2020 3:21 pm

Who said they were resistant to using it?

Mohatdebos
Reply to  MarkW
March 21, 2020 10:11 am

Dr. Anthony Fauci.

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW
March 21, 2020 2:10 pm

You are mis-interpreting his remarks.
Unless you think that finding the correct dosage isn’t important.

doug pratt
Reply to  Mohatdebos
March 21, 2020 10:38 am

Exactly, before my trip to brazil I was given a mandatory prescription to start weeks b4. This drug MAY have some prophalaxis ?? properties or at least lessen the impact of the infection. Reports seem to indicate that quantities of HCO are being gathered. Why? My local drugstore had some weeks ago, but is now trying to get more.!!! Why would it not be immediately available to any who can tolerate it? Worst case, we don’t get malaria.(joke) If we don’t get back to normal, the cure may be much worse than the scourge. If this drug knocks down the curve dramatically we all win; if not, we ‘ve lost nothing. The cost of HCO is nothing compared to the cost of continuing in place.
Doug

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Dr Deanster
March 21, 2020 6:14 am

theres still a lackof testing done so actual numbers would be higher

mario lento
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 11:36 am

John Tilman: I get the same calculation as of this morning. As I have always believed, testing will bring the denominator up by at least an order of magnitude (my hunch) because there are no tests available. The measurement has been, and still is to a large extent, skewed to people who are sick enough to seek medical help.

This site is very good. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

John Tillman
Reply to  mario lento
March 20, 2020 12:14 pm

I hope that the mild, misdiagnosed or unnoticed and unreported cases are indeed an order of magnitude greater than those reported.

If fatality be one percent, and 60 million Americans were infected, as during the 2009 swine flu pandemic, then 600,000 would die. If the mortality rate however actually be 1/10 of one percent, then “only” 60,000.

My hope however is that Wuhan won’t infect 60 million. If we can hold the spread to, say, six million, then 1/10 of one percent would mean just 6000 lethal cases.

At this point, who knows? We can only hope and take whatever actions promise to limit infection and severity.

mario lento
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 12:20 pm

Yes sir… and once in a while I need to ground and remind myself that this virus is a new and probably soon-to-be just part of the common cold for which humans have dealt with forever.

With all of our efforts to stop the influenza virus and with vaccinations prevalent in society, we have many millions infected annually in the US.

John Tillman
Reply to  mario lento
March 20, 2020 1:24 pm

I don’t get vaccinated for flu because so often the best guess as to the prevalent strain most likely in each winter is wrong.

But I guess the older I get, the better the odds a flu vaccine confers.

mario lento
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 1:38 pm

I am in the same camp and same wrt flu shot. It’s always last year’s strain and this year what goes around is something new. I have not gotten flu in a decade by the way.

Scissor
Reply to  mario lento
March 20, 2020 2:23 pm

These antivirals taken seasonally in low doses might be better than vaccines or maybe would be complimentary.

mario lento
Reply to  Scissor
March 20, 2020 2:29 pm

Scissor, the keyword complimentary!

1) The human body is a wonder of self defense especially when fortified with good ingredients.

2) Antivirals can make life for the virus very difficult.

I would resort to number 2) after number 1) screams for help, and only when I know that’s the case. 🙂

TRM
Reply to  mario lento
March 20, 2020 9:58 pm

” John Tillman March 20, 2020 at 1:24 pm
I don’t get vaccinated for flu because so often the best guess as to the prevalent strain most likely in each winter is wrong. ”

And twice they had it totally wrong to what was actually in circulation yet there was no increase in deaths. So nobody got vaccinated to what was in circulation and no increase in deaths shows it is in placebo category (IMHO).

Vaccines work best against genetically stable targets. Smallpox was the best target you could ever ask for. Influenza is the other end of the chart.

mario lento
Reply to  TRM
March 20, 2020 10:47 pm

I tend to disagree, call me a sometimes anti vaxer. I take the big vaccinations of course… the bad ones that are known to stay in circulation until wiped out largely.

Sceptical Sam
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 11:54 pm

John Tillman said:
“I hope that the mild, misdiagnosed or unnoticed and unreported cases are indeed an order of magnitude greater than those reported.”

Presumably you also hope that they somehow or other don’t infect others.

mario lento
Reply to  Sceptical Sam
March 21, 2020 12:00 am

No, that is not what was meant by John Tillman. Think about what he meant. We have not been counting people who have symptom or mild symptoms and have no idea how many are actually infected. The solid assumption is that there are many more. No one wants that to be true. But we want to know how many there are that have not been counted. The common sense realization of this is that we could rest assured that this dilutes the given mortality rate. If it’s an order of magnitude greater than we have counted this far, that means the mortality rate is likely equivalent to the Flu… and panic will subside. It’s basic math or pre-algebraic.

PS – that is where most of the spread is coming from… undetected cases mostly

Sceptical Sam
Reply to  Sceptical Sam
March 21, 2020 1:40 am

mario says:
“PS – that is where most of the spread is coming from… undetected cases mostly”.

Exactly. And given the inability to test the whole population of the world (or the USA) then you need to go with the data available.

Otherwise, it’s just wish-thinking. And, another useless academic navel gaze.

John Tillman
Reply to  Sceptical Sam
March 22, 2020 3:43 am

What Mario said.

I was referring to the magnitude of unreported cases. However many there are are already contributing to the spread. Or not.

The hopeful part is that fatality rate is ten times lower than derived from reported cases.

mario lento
Reply to  John Tillman
March 22, 2020 12:25 pm

Exactly John

Dr Deanster
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 4:36 pm

I’ve been looking at the data and it seems that this virus spread seems to top out at about 2 mo. Provided that China is telling the truth, their spread covered Jan-Feb. Washington State has plateaued (Jan 20-Mar 20) and is now reporting just a few cases per day. This could be good news, as maybe the NY outbreak will ease up in April, hopefully sooner with the social distancing. Italy (mid Feb) should plateau off around the middle of April if the two month window holds true.

Rolf
Reply to  Dr Deanster
March 21, 2020 1:50 am

That’s with draconian measures. Something you will not see here until it gets really nasty.

Steven F
Reply to  Dr Deanster
March 21, 2020 11:21 am

Most of the dropping china cases was due to the government shutting down companies, banning gatherings, and forcing people to stay home. The number of new cases started to drop after the quarantine.

In washington most of the original cases were in one assisted housing complex for the elderly. They were all quarantined and many of the stafff and other secondary contacts were traced down and also quarantined. South korea also did this and added extensive testing of the population allowing them to track down many unknown cases and implemented targeted quarantines.

So the 2 month drop you are seeing is mainly due to people and governments increasing sanitation and implementing quarantines. Also note it is now believe that some of the first cases occurred in China way back in October of last year. So it continued to spread for 4 months before emergency actions were taken.

March 20, 2020 10:38 am

Increasing temperature and humidity indoors reduces transmission of flu-like viruses. Warmer and more humid air kills viruses outside the human body faster.

This is a well known poor man’s measure. People used it in Ukraine against the Swine Flu in 2009.

Now a study confirmed that it works for the COVID-19 virus.

Roger Knights
Reply to  Leo Goldstein
March 21, 2020 10:24 am

“Increasing temperature and humidity indoors reduces transmission of flu-like viruses.”

So why aren’t the authorities recommending the use of humidifiers?

Dave Fair
March 20, 2020 10:40 am

Fascinating stuff, Rud. Thanks for your work.

Like warfare, one needs defense in depth when dealing with complex issues; there is no one magic pill. Hopefully these drugs will give us time.

John Tillman
Reply to  Dave Fair
March 20, 2020 10:45 am

Also as in strategic bombing, you have to go back and hit the target again.

John Tillman
March 20, 2020 10:43 am

Adenosine isn’t an amino acid, but a nucleotide, ie the nucleobase adenine attached to a ribose sugar and a phosphate group. It’s one of the five such nucleotides in DNA and RNA, arguably the most important.

Remdesivir is an adenosine nucleotide analog.

Richard of NZ
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 2:37 pm

Also amino acids are the building blocks of proteins, not nucleic acids.

Ktm
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 6:56 pm

Yep, I was going to make the same comment.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Ktm
March 20, 2020 8:19 pm

Yes, me too, but putting on my Mr Pedant hat, adenosine is a nucleoside and becomes a nucleotide when 5′-kinased to AMP.

Bob Turner
March 20, 2020 10:46 am

There’s an international trial in progress to test the various drugs. 10 countries are joining in. Guess which major country isn’t taking part?

Gerald Machnee
Reply to  Bob Turner
March 20, 2020 4:30 pm

Canada?
I have not heard a word on the news in spite of contacting them.

TRM
Reply to  Gerald Machnee
March 20, 2020 10:02 pm

He said “major” country … 🙂
LOL. Except for size Canada ain’t major (and hockey but that season on hold).

Gary Pearse
Reply to  TRM
March 21, 2020 9:22 am

G7!! Canada (used to) punch well above our weight and still is considered a ‘major’. Trudeau progressives are trying to drag us back to the stone age!

TRM
Reply to  Gary Pearse
March 21, 2020 5:45 pm

Basketball, insulin and Oscar Peterson! Great contributions to the human mosaic. A sport enjoyed (playing and watching) by hundreds of millions, a medical treatment that has saved the lives of tens of millions if not hundreds and one of the all time great jazz piano masters.

Not to shabby for a small population. Not bad at all. Now, “What have you done for us lately?”….

March 20, 2020 10:48 am

I’ve read the Chinese have also tested high dose IV vitamin C and found it to be helpful in treating COVID-19. However, I have not seen any mention of this in the US, almost as if it is being intentionally ignored. If the vitamin C efficacy is true, it would be an easy to use treatment and should be widely available and it would be a shame if it was not put to use.

Walt D.
Reply to  Bryan - oz4caster
March 20, 2020 11:55 am

Add lime to your Gin and Tonic.
(I’m serious)

mariolento
Reply to  Walt D.
March 20, 2020 12:02 pm

“add lime to your…” And do what me and my wife do. We use half a lemon and a touch of pure maple syrup added to a tall glass of water every day. After washing the lemon or lime, we grate the skin to let the zest call into the drink. Huge amount of bioflavonoids and extra C

Roger Knights
Reply to  mariolento
March 21, 2020 10:35 am

“a lemon and a touch of pure maple syrup added to a tall glass of water every day.”

I’ve just discovered that adding vanilla extract can also make water more palatable.

mario lento
Reply to  Roger Knights
March 21, 2020 12:38 pm

I’ll try it… huh!

ferdberple
Reply to  Roger Knights
March 21, 2020 3:08 pm

I’ve found that adding scotch to water also makes it more palatable. Especially if you skip the water..

Richmond
Reply to  Walt D.
March 20, 2020 12:25 pm

Will Lemon also work?

LdB
Reply to  Walt D.
March 20, 2020 11:47 pm

For the last time tonic has quinine .. not the right thing other than it makes up part of name of the active drug being discussed. Quinine as a single ingredient has no know effect for covid19 so go an read again the name of the active ingredients.

icisil
Reply to  Bryan - oz4caster
March 20, 2020 12:38 pm

10 g per day for moderate cases; 20 g per day for severe cases. No deaths, and 3-5 day reduced hospital stays. One patient near death received 50 g over 4 hrs and survived. No bad side effects for any of the patients.

BFL
Reply to  Bryan - oz4caster
March 20, 2020 6:17 pm

The vitamin C was administered by IV. Oral vitamin C is rapidly eliminated in the urine so plasma concentrations remain relatively low. As an aside, IV vitamin C was recommended by Linus Pauling (1970’s) for some cancer and other treatments. However the NIH refused to test by IV and “rigged” the studies with oral C with negative results. FDA/NIH has historically preferred denigrating or ignoring any cheap therapies for major medical issues and instead pursues approval of expensive drugs/fixes to support the pharma industry. Major distrust of the FDA by a significant portion of the public is one reason alternative medicines and approaches receive so much support.
So just because they (FDA) say there will be “approval” of vitamin C or chloroquine for COVID treatment doesn’t necessarily mean much, as they can delay by insisting on more “studies” (which I’ve have heard Dr. Fauci refer to). Of course rapid approval of an expensive anti-viral med would be right up their alley. Possibly Trump could go around them with an executive order. I guess we will see how this plays out.

TRM
Reply to  Bryan - oz4caster
March 20, 2020 10:04 pm

The doses would cause problems for your kidneys so they give it via IV.

icisil
Reply to  TRM
March 21, 2020 3:22 am

High doses can cause diarrhea if taken orally, that’s why IVs are given. There is controversy over whether they cause kidney stones.

http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v09n05.shtml

Don132
Reply to  Bryan - oz4caster
March 21, 2020 6:32 am

Yes, and here’s the biology of vitamin C that justifies its use as a vasopressor in septic shock, and, along with it’s well-known antioxidant effects, may be why the Shanghai medical authorities have recommended vitamins C for COVID-19 treatment. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RA7obbfGg_o

Yet, not a peep about this in the mainstream media.

Stevek
March 20, 2020 10:48 am

The FDA seems not setup properly to deal with a novel virus that becomes a pandemic. In a perfect world we would do months or years of testing before allowing the drug. Unfortunately we do not have the time. If an older person has this virus and has underlying condition there is significant chance they will die. We have to weigh this against what we know about these drugs at the moment.

Suppose for instance we know based on past cases an 80 year old man with a pre existing lung condition has a 70 percent chance of dying under current best case practices. Do we try the drug on him ?

ColMosby
Reply to  Stevek
March 20, 2020 12:28 pm

Doctors can try these drugs under “compassionate use’ and obtain FDA approval. I uderstand that doctors are using these without FDA approval for this particular use.

TGB
Reply to  ColMosby
March 20, 2020 8:21 pm

Actually, we use drugs “off label” every day all the time.

No need to wait for an FDA approved indication. HCQ is already FDA approved. Has a known and reasonable safety profile. We have small randomized placebo controlled trials.

That’s being said this is NOT the first time HCQ has been studied as an antiviral. Every previous time it has nor panned out.

Javert Chip
Reply to  Stevek
March 20, 2020 12:36 pm

Stevek

If that little old man was you, I bet your answer would be “hell yes”.

mario lento
Reply to  Javert Chip
March 20, 2020 12:38 pm

I’d say,
“In a[n] [im]perfect world [such as we live in] we would do months or years of testing before allowing the drug.

Stevek
Reply to  Javert Chip
March 20, 2020 1:52 pm

Definitely hell yes !

4EDouglas
Reply to  Javert Chip
March 20, 2020 3:22 pm

What is it going to do?Kill him? Fire in the hole! Light the candle!”Etc.

Sheri
Reply to  Stevek
March 20, 2020 1:39 pm

A drug can be used “off label”. None of the drugs being tried on my chronic cough are for cough, but research shows they can sometimes work. After 25 years of coughing, off-label doesn’t look so bad.

Ian Hawthorn
Reply to  Stevek
March 21, 2020 4:26 am

I generally agree with you. However playing devil’s advocate here, aspirin was the new drug they used in similar untested fashion to fight the spanish flu in 1918. Today it is widely believed that this considerably increased the death rate. Aspirin lowers fever and reduces inflammation which is why they used it. They were fighting the symptoms. However fever has a reason and a purpose. They were interfering with the body’s efforts to fight off the infection.

mario lento
Reply to  Ian Hawthorn
March 21, 2020 12:19 pm

I have always thought to “sweat it out” When I get a fever, I get as warm as I can tolerate. And interestingly, your body feels cold, so it encourages you to wrap up. If you can get into a sauna (that’s not too dry) or steam room and make sure to hydrate, your cold could be quelled quite fast.

However if you’re in bad health, you may not be able to take it… that’s where things go wrong fast.

PS – today I would not go to a public steam room with sickness…

ferdberple
Reply to  mario lento
March 21, 2020 3:17 pm

same thing works for me. If the bed isn’t soaking wet from sweat, you need to add another layer.

mario lento
Reply to  ferdberple
March 21, 2020 3:24 pm

Hah! Absolutely…
The sweat did a job on me (through evaporative cooling) when I get up to empty my bladder… Dang the shivers were intense as I crawled back into my damp sheets… Unfortunately for me it took 5 days for fever to break with this WuFlu.

DaveK
Reply to  Ian Hawthorn
March 21, 2020 2:41 pm

It wasn’t just that… The dosages of aspirin that were given were absolutely huge, sometimes several grams per day. At those dosages, continued over several days, one of the major side effects is pulmonary edema, which doesn’t help at all when you are trying to fight a lower respiratory infection.

Scissor
March 20, 2020 10:48 am

Excellent summary. BTW, adenosine is not an amino acid, it’s a nucleoside.

Anyway, it would seem that a cocktail might have good effect, and at least one is being evaluated.

John Tillman
Reply to  Scissor
March 20, 2020 11:26 am

Nucleotide.

John Tillman
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 12:00 pm

My mistake. It is a nucleoside, ie the nucleobase and ribose sugar combo, without the phosphate group.

Scissor
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 1:16 pm

This kind of error does not instill confidence – just kidding. I used to know some of these things off the top of my head. Now if I want to be sure, I look it up.

John Tillman
Reply to  Scissor
March 20, 2020 2:41 pm

My first mistake was trusting my memory.

Sceptical Sam
Reply to  John Tillman
March 21, 2020 4:54 am

“My mistake.”

Really?

Fancy that.

Scissor
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 12:10 pm

Nucleotides are phosphate esters, nucleosides are not. Adenosine is a nucleoside, which is being confused with the nucleotide ATP.

FranBC
March 20, 2020 10:57 am

” The ‘drug’ is just an analog of the amino acid adenosine, one of the 20 amino acid…”

NO — it is a nucleoside, AKA nitrogenous base, which when phosphorylated form the bases that make up the genetic code of DNA or RNA. As far as I ever heard, there are 5 of them. There are, however 20-odd amino acids that form proteins. This kind of basic error does not induce confidence in the rest of the post.

For stuff like this, Wiki is reliable: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nucleotide

John Tillman
Reply to  FranBC
March 20, 2020 11:19 am

Nucleotide, not nucleoside, which is the nucleobase and sugar combo, without the phospate group.

John Tillman
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 11:59 am

Sorry, it is a nucleoside, ie lacking the phosphate group.

Fritz Brohn
March 20, 2020 10:59 am

Albeit with a minor correction that Remdesivir is a nucleotide analog of one of the four nucleotides found in RNA, this is a solid summary of its drug effects (and potential limits) on this coronavirus as well as chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine.

PaulH
March 20, 2020 11:02 am

I’m learning a lot about RNA, cytosol and molecular biology. 😉 More that I think I really want to know, but this is orders of magnitude better than listening to the various talking heads on TV/radio/social media.

Hopefully this will be a light at the end of the tunnel.

Scissor
March 20, 2020 11:08 am

The higher the number of unreported cases, the lower the actual death rate.

Interesting, it’s been reported that virtually all of the deaths (>99%) in Italy involved patients with other serious health issues.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Scissor
March 20, 2020 12:21 pm

“…virtually all of the deaths (>99%) in Italy involved patients with other serious health issues.”

Sounds like heatwave statistics.
What would we do without nanny-governments and scary news media?

Scissor
Reply to  Pop Piasa
March 20, 2020 2:40 pm

I found a post that said 13 healthcare workers in Italy have died from the coronavirus, so this is concerning and somewhat contradictory to the above.

icisil
Reply to  Scissor
March 20, 2020 5:49 pm

Apparently, this is ongoing research. It appears that as death reports are sent from hospitals to the National Institute of Health, they are examined. A day or two ago the number was 105, this last one was 300+. So the numbers will likely adjust over time until all reports are examined.

Roger Knights
Reply to  Scissor
March 21, 2020 10:39 am

“I found a post that said 13 healthcare workers in Italy have died from the coronavirus, so this is concerning and somewhat contradictory to the above.”

Probably they got a heavier viral load. (But why should that make such a big difference?)

John Tillman
Reply to  Roger Knights
March 22, 2020 3:50 am

Immune system overwhelmed?

Like the hero doctor in Wuhan, dead at only 36 and presumably healthy.

icisil
Reply to  Scissor
March 20, 2020 12:32 pm

Research into 355 deaths found that only three (0.8%) had no other illnesses. Nearly half of them – 48.5% – already had three or even more health conditions. Another 25.6% had two other ‘pathologies’, while 25.1% had one other illness.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8130479/99-patients-killed-coronavirus-Italy-existing-illnesses-study-finds.html

icisil
Reply to  Scissor
March 20, 2020 12:52 pm

Quote below is from link in prior post. It went into moderation because the word “k!lled” is in the URL

I’m wondering if the high mortalities in diabetes and hypertension patients are due to their pre-existing conditions or due to the ACE inhibiting drugs they take, which upregulate ACE2 expression possibly leading to nastier infections.

According to the study, the most common of these problems in Italy include high blood pressure, heart disease and diabetes.

Some 76.1 per cent of the patients who died of Covid-19 had previously had problems with high arterial blood pressure, the study found.

More than a third – 35.5 per cent – had diabetes, while 33.0 per cent had suffered from ischemic heart disease.

icisil
Reply to  icisil
March 20, 2020 1:10 pm

Here’s the link in case the first post never comes out of moderation. You’ll have to change the “!” to “i” in the word “k!lled” in the URL.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8130479/99-patients-k!lled-coronavirus-Italy-existing-illnesses-study-finds.html

icisil
Reply to  icisil
March 20, 2020 1:25 pm

Nearly every morbidity listed in that article – diabetes, hypertension, atrial fibrillation and ischemic heart disease are treated with ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB), which upregulate ACE2 expression in the lungs (don’t know how prevalent for the last two, but they do appear to be treatments for those conditions).

lb
Reply to  icisil
March 20, 2020 2:13 pm

Could this imply that not the hypertension is the risk factor, but the ACE inhibitor is the culprit?

icisil
Reply to  lb
March 20, 2020 2:41 pm

That’s what I’m wondering, and researchers in that link are as well. A letter in the Lancet said that there are other options for hypertension patients, but I can’t remember what they were. Something with the word “channel” in it.

lb
Reply to  lb
March 20, 2020 3:43 pm

icisil, that’s probably the calcium channel blockers – I’m gonna switch my medication back to those tomorrow, they work well for me. Thanks for the link.

icisil
Reply to  lb
March 20, 2020 5:03 pm

Yep that’s it.

“We suggest that patients with cardiac diseases, hypertension, or diabetes, who are treated with ACE2-increasing drugs, are at higher risk for severe COVID-19 infection and, therefore, should be monitored for ACE2-modulating medications, such as ACE inhibitors or ARBs,” the article said. “Based on a PubMed search on Feb 28, 2020, we did not find any evidence to suggest that antihypertensive calcium channel blockers increased ACE2 expression or activity, therefore these could be a suitable alternative treatment in these patients.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/19/metro/is-it-safe-take-ibuprofen-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/

PaulH
Reply to  lb
March 20, 2020 5:37 pm

As an aside, my doc has me on amlodipine for hypertension (high blood pressure). This is a calcium channel blocker, not an ACE inhibitor.

DANNY DAVIS
Reply to  lb
March 20, 2020 7:06 pm

Yep, that’s the one – Amlodipine 5mg is what this Golden Age traveller is prescribed.
Calcium Channel blocker for r-e-l-a-x-e-d heart muscle & blood vessels – Ahhh. ;>)
That and some diuretic to keep me running! Way back in ’67 I was a DanD!
Hey, Covid19, we can’t dance together – we go nuthin’ in common!

Steely Dan – Hey Nineteen = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAHQ-9Fniac

I’m also blood type A+ = the only test I ever got an A+ on!!

PaulH
Reply to  Scissor
March 20, 2020 5:59 pm

I know I’ve posted this link to the Information is Beautiful website, so pardon the duplicate. They’re updating their COVID-19 graphics every 2-3 days with the latest figures, and they’ve added a section showing how “multiple conditions” increase the risk of death.

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

Now, these are serious conditions like active cancer, COPD, diabetes, stroke, etc., so contracting the Wuhan virus on top of these would be like being hit by a speeding truck. Of the deaths in this study (Italy), 25% had one condition, 26% had 2 conditions and 48% had 3 or more conditions. Of the deaths, 1% had no serious condition. (Keep in mind the usual caveats: data in flux, small sample size, etc. Check the graphic in a few days for updates.)

Pop Piasa
March 20, 2020 11:11 am

Thanks Rud, here’s a way we can help with research.
Right now there is a distributed computing effort to model the proteins and provide data to researchers going on at U of WA called Rosetta@Home. It is administrated by Berkeley U’s BOINC, which was born out of the now discontinued SETI@Home program.

You must download and install the BOINC manager software, which allows you to choose when and how clients use your CPU or GPU. It’s here==> https://boinc.berkeley.edu/download_all.php
Choose Rosetta from the client list during setup/first use. Some of the models you run will be part of the COVID research.

Rosetta will only use CPU, so if you have a GTX series or other powerful NVidia GPU, you can volunteer it at GPUGRID, where cancer, AIDS, virus (and soon COVID-19) research is always ongoing.

Earn badges, get intrinsic satisfaction, even signal virtue if you must, but the power of distributed computing is awesome to me and I enjoy participating in it. 😁👍

My computers run work units 24/7 and I use them normally, with the help of a great free utility called Process Lasso ===> https://bitsum.com/ which manages how apps use the CPU.

Vuk
March 20, 2020 11:15 am

In the UK there are two malaria drugs Chloroquine (available with prescription) and Qualaquin (available without prescription to treat leg muscle cramps), both have side effects, the most serious are:
Chloroquine – Anxiety (attempts at killing oneself)
Qualaquin – Anxiety (behaviour change, similar to drunkenness)
If need be, I’ll rather be drunk than suicidal.
🙂
Chloroquine Side Effects
https://www.drugs.com/sfx/chloroquine-side-effects.html
Qualaquin Side Effects
https://www.drugs.com/sfx/qualaquin-side-effects.html

Reply to  Vuk
March 20, 2020 2:30 pm

I miscalculated in a comment the other day, by taking the dose for prevention as being the same as for treatment of active malaria (same dose, but the prophylactic dose is weekly, not daily). Sigh…

Anyway, having recalculated, two to three cups daily of tonic water may do the job of prevention (looking at the different uptakes). So a few daily G&Ts ARE a reasonable precaution to take. Number depending on how strong you like them.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Writing Observer
March 21, 2020 9:35 am

Writing Observer, I have a big bottle of tonic handy and recommend squeezing a lemon into into your glass. I admit to putting a tsp of sugar in the lemon juice. Very tasty.

Hot under the collar
Reply to  Vuk
March 20, 2020 5:26 pm

Other serious side effects are, Retinopathy (long term use or high dose) and QT interval prolongation; so should never be taken with many anti-arrhythmic / antidepressants / psychotropic / anticonvulsants.

LdB
Reply to  Vuk
March 20, 2020 11:23 pm

They also don’t work at all on the critical ill, they help those with mild symptoms. Many cases go straight from almost no symptoms to very severe and it offers no protection at all to that group. How many it stops from going from mild to severe needs proper clinical numbers under identical situations …. so two like for like hospitals with similar patients demographics. You see wide variation in all the statistics from within a single country in different regions, so getting exactly what the efficiency is hard to calculate.

Dodgy Geezer
March 20, 2020 11:18 am

Has anyone noticed that most of the links in Anthony’s original item on covid-19 and chloroquine have been barred by Google as ‘breach of terms of service’?

Is this because he has shifted some to point elsewhere, or might it be an attack by someone trying to close the site down?

I would be interested in a Mod or WebMaster reply….

Sunny
Reply to  Dodgy Geezer
March 20, 2020 12:10 pm

Dodgy Geezer

I read the same thing on twitter today, somebody stated that the chloroquine research done in 2005 which shows it works against corona was not showing up on google anymore…

Dodgy Geezer
Reply to  Sunny
March 20, 2020 1:29 pm

That is interesting.

There is an argument that, if chloroquine were advertised as fully proven, completely effective and readily available (which is not yet true), people would then cease self-isolating and avoiding crowds. If this happened, the medical services of major cities would be completely overwhelmed with new infections. Even if there was a simple treatment, the peak of people requiring attention would be too great for the existing infrastructure, and avoidable deaths would result.

So it makes sense to ‘flatten the curve’, even if there is a simple cure. It will be a delicate balance, because the techniques used to flatten the curve will result in disruption, and that will probably mean avoidable deaths….

So suppression of this news MIGHT be officially ordered. Equally, persons who see WUWT as a political enemy promoting evil ideas which will damage humanity might also be tempted to try to interfere with the free flow of information. And it would be easy for those persons to inform Google that WUWT is distributing dangerous fake news, and should be closed down – which Google would probably do as a matter of urgency. And, of course, it might just be an error….

The administration of the web site ought to be able to determine which, if any, of the above is true.

RockyRoad
Reply to  Dodgy Geezer
March 20, 2020 2:02 pm

Sad that Big Government thinks censorship is preferable to facts!

LdB
Reply to  RockyRoad
March 20, 2020 11:38 pm

The public aren’t listening to facts they are acting as a dumb mob.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  RockyRoad
March 21, 2020 10:11 am

LDB,
Yup:
Groups working in Salt Lake City and Hong Kong in 2004:
“Compounds approved for therapeutic use and in vitro inhibitors of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) were evaluated for inhibition in the mouse SARS-CoV replication model. A hybrid interferon, interferon alpha (IFN-α) B/D, and a mismatched double-stranded (ds) RNA interferon (IFN) inducer, Ampligen® (poly I:poly C124), were the only compounds that potently inhibited virus titres in the lungs of infected mice as assessed by CPE titration assays. When mice were dosed intraperitoneally (i.p.) with IFN-α B/D once daily for 3 days beginning 4 h after virus exposure, SARS-CoV replication in the lungs of infected mice was reduced by 1 log10 at 10,000 and 32,000 IU; at the highest dose of 100,000 IU, virus lung titres were below detectable limits. Ampligen® used i.p. at 10 mg/kg 4 h prior to virus exposure also reduced virus lung titres to below detectable limits. Nelfinavir, β-D-N4-hydroxycytidine, calpain inhibitor VI, 3-deazaneplanocin A and Alferon® (human leukocyte IFN-α-n3) did not significantly reduce lung virus titres in mice. Anti-inflammatory agents, chloroquine, amodiaquin and pentoxifylline, were also inactive in vivo, suggesting that although they may be useful in ameliorating the hyperinflammatory response induced by the virus infection, they will not significantly reduce the replication of the virus, the inducer of inflammatory response. Thus, anti-inflammatory agents may only be useful in treating virus lung infections if used in combination with agents that inhibit virus replication. In summary, the data suggest that induction of IFN by mismatched dsRNA or actual treatment with exogenous IFN-α can inhibit SARS-CoV replication in the lungs of mice.”

Note the lack of ambiguous language, focus on quantification of results, and the fact that this was not a study of pouring some chemicals on cells in a glass dish…which is very well known to not give the same results as what happens when live subjects have an infection and are given that same drug.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/095632020601700505

Reply to  Derg
March 20, 2020 3:24 pm

We need an internet without google & co

Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 20, 2020 4:14 pm

What kind of search results do the other search engines return?

TRM
Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 20, 2020 10:15 pm

_Jim, DuckDuckGo is fine I use it. There are also others that I’ve tried but didn’t like Startpage.

Reply to  TRM
March 21, 2020 6:42 am

re: “DuckDuckGo is fine I use it. There are also others that I’ve tried but didn’t like Startpage.”

Here’s “the dope” on Startpage:

People also ask –
Does Startpage use Google?
1) StartPage uses results from Google, which is a good thing if you prefer Google’s result without the tracking.
2) Ixquick, which is an independent search engine that uses its own results, developed StartPage to include results from Google.

Joel O'Bryan
March 20, 2020 11:24 am

Minor point: adenosine is a nucleic acid, not one of the 20 amino acids that forms poly-peptides (proteins). It’s the “A” base precursor in the RNA and DNA coding 4 nucleic acids letters AGCU/AGCU as Rud mentioned.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
March 20, 2020 11:43 am

errata: AGCU/AGCT (RNA/DNA)
I miss edit.

Eric Vieira
March 20, 2020 11:26 am

Sorry, adenosine is NOT an amino acid. It’s a purine ribonucleoside (nucleotide base = purine) attached to a sugar (ribose). Remdesivir is an analog of adenosine which is one of the natural substrates of the viral polymerase. The analog binds to the active site of the enzyme and cannot be processed further thus blocking this key enzyme’s activity (and viral replication).

Ron Long
March 20, 2020 11:26 am

Rud Istvan, thank you for the detailed and informative posting. I am on house quarentine here in Mendoza, Argentina, and enjoying good weather and practicing golf in my backyard with my dogs as caddies. The reality of this China Virus seems to be that following guidelines to flatten the infection rate curve and give the medical community a chance to get ahead of the virus is the best practice. For sure, those of us with money have an ability to guard ourselves and families that the others simply don’t have, and no amount of government intervention will save them all. Good on A. Watts for this involved and informative website, and good luck to all.

Reply to  Ron Long
March 20, 2020 2:23 pm

Hmm. Keep research records and you could probably publish (not here) on the “Effects of Canine Saliva and Dentition on Golf Ball Putting.” I have some old work acquaintances that would probably be far more interested in that than the latest CoViD paper…

J Mac
March 20, 2020 11:36 am

Rud Istvan,
Excellent article – important information and much appreciated!
A point that may be of interest: On the President’s Wuhan Virus Task Force press briefing today, Dr. Deborah Birx related a emerging trend identified from the virus spread in Italy. Their experience is a mortality rate in males of twice that of females, for all ages experiencing the Wuhan virus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXbxNT4ncXo&feature=emb_logo
Briefing starts at 35 minutes. Dr. Birx comments at 58 minutes.

On a different topic… call it ‘marketing’: I distribute these and similar ‘rigorous’ articles to ‘family’ and ‘friends’ distribution lists. They serve both as solid information sources on emergent phenomena as well as illustrating WUWT as a source for reliable information on similar topics. Articles like this are the means of introducing others to WUWT as a credible source for pragmatic information on science issues.
Keep up the good work, Anthony and crew!

Scissor
Reply to  J Mac
March 20, 2020 3:14 pm

Good news, smoking among Italians is in decline, though males are about twice as likely to be smokers.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954611106001259

J Mac
Reply to  Scissor
March 20, 2020 9:58 pm

Non-news, Scissors….
Correlation does not establish cause and effect. You should know better….
I’d really like to know what causes viral attacks on males to be more virulent, debilitating, and lethal, when compared to the y chromosome-deficient gender. There may be something fundamental underlying this odd phenomena that holds potential for a broad spectrum therapeutic applicable to viral infections.

Reply to  J Mac
March 21, 2020 6:48 am

To J Mac re: “Correlation does not establish cause and effect. You should know better….”

WRT smoking, and males twice as likely to smoke this puts you in the category of “Celia denier”.

https://medlineplus.gov/ency/imagepages/19533.htm

(NEVER HEARD of “smoker’s cough” before? How about that itchy feeling smokers get in the lungs that forces them to ‘light up’ another? The “celia” coming back to ‘life’ …)

J Mac
Reply to  _Jim
March 21, 2020 9:29 am

-Jim,
‘Celia denier’? Ugh…. Beyond irrelevant.

Plain Jane
Reply to  J Mac
March 21, 2020 5:12 pm

If the sort of drugs that are regularly prescribed for those thought to have heart disease or high blood pressure make people more susceptible to CV then there is your male bias. I know one old fellow who has some heart disease, but never had high blood pressure, so they give him high blood pressure medication that means he does not get out of a chair because he feels so bad, yet he does not have high blood pressure. They prescribe the 4 meds, cholesterol meds, blood pressure meds, Beta blockers and asprin or blood thinners to older men without thinking. They prescribed for another friend with chest pain for ages, before it turned out to be oesophagitis. Over prescribing to men could be one of the possibilities for the correlation?

Joel O'Bryan
March 20, 2020 11:40 am

As for Corona virus to mutate to chloroquine resistance, that could be tough. Triggering the membrane fusion event is pH dependent conformational change that is very fundamental to how the virus able to merge its RNA package into the cytosol. That will be difficult for the virus to mutate around with chloroquine pH elevating trademark since that is host cell feature.
Malaria is able to mutate away from chlorine sensitivity because the action of chloroquine in that pathogen is inside the malaria parasite’s lysosomes, thus sensitivity or resistance is under malaria selections control.

Corona virus COVID-19 evolving resistance to Remdesivir is certainly quite likely as that resistance is under the control of the viral polymerase and the viral coding sequence for that being strongly selected for. It would probably evolve resistance kinetics like HIV did in the 1980’s to the first line nucleic acid analogs that quickly became useless against HIV in the same host since that was chronic infection. Thus Gilead’s “window of opportunity” for selling its Remdesivir will probably close within a 1-2 years if Remdesivir is widely adopted.

Phil.
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
March 20, 2020 12:16 pm

Also Hydroxychloroquine is a zinc ionophore and zinc acts as an inhibitor of the virus’s reversetranscriptase and therefore will stop replication of the virus. So that could be the mechanism

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Phil.
March 23, 2020 2:10 am

What mechanism?
Zero evidence that either of the malaria drugs work in vivo.
There are a total of absolutely none studies that demonstrate an inhibition of viral replication from oral ingestion of malaria drugs in humans or animals with an active viral infection.
Is there evidence you can cite that people who take chloroquine are immune to viral infections, or have shown to be suddenly cured of any?
None of the studies cited in these reports on coronavirus have tested for plasma viral RNA counts.
Nasal swabs are not a generally accepted proxy for systemic viral loading.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
March 23, 2020 2:58 am

“Corona virus COVID-19 evolving resistance to Remdesivir is certainly quite likely as that resistance is under the control of the viral polymerase and the viral coding sequence for that being strongly selected for.”
Wait…what?
I am not sure what to make of this comment.
For one thing, there was only ever one antiretroviral approved during the 1980s, AZT.
It is not useless, it is still being prescribed and is very effective as a combination therapy component.
It is on the list of the WHO most essential medicines, the safest and most effective medicines in the world.
It is not a nucleic acid analogue, it is a nucleoside analogue.

As for viral resistance, any drug used to kill an infectious agent will hasten evolution of resistance unless it is powerful enough to block all viral replication.
Which is one reason why almost all antiviral therapies make use of combinations of drugs.
It does not matter what the mechanism is…if it does not wipe them out, there will be an evolution towards resistance.
The same thing occurs with antibiotics, insecticides, fungicides, herbicides…anything.
Survivors will reproduce and offspring will be, obviously, the offspring of the survivors.

I am very curious about the idea that this particular one, remdesivir, will have some increased tendency to cause resistance to evolve?
Also, what evidence is there that corona virus entry into a cell is pH dependent?
The headline post posits a mechanism whereby the lysosomal pH changes enough to alter the shape of the ACE2 receptor such that it prevents the viral spike protein from binding to it.
But there is little reason to think that ACE2 is the only way the virus has to gain entry into a host ell.
In fact, it has recently been found that at least one other receptor is now known to be exploited by the virus.
And most of this regarding lysosomes and how they may be involved in viral entry or survival is guesswork, not proven.
It has not even been shown that these chemicals do anything with regard to viral replication in vivo.
A whole flurry of studies in the early part of this century came to basically nothing and the research was largely abandoned.
It is difficult to find info on why so much interest in those days, vs a wide range of viruses, was dropped, but the few sources that give a reason point to in vivo studies that were unable to confirm the results found in vitro.
This is a familiar pattern in drug research.
Chemicals are screened for activity in vitro, which can be done cheaply and broadly, and ones that show promise are carried forward to further stages of testing.
The industry moved towards a focus on direct acting antivirals and monoclonal antibody drugs because those were the ones to give results that held up to scrutiny when given to living creatures infected with a virus.
Jumping to conclusions and making unqualified statements of efficacy are not a good idea, most especially under the current circumstances.
At this point, we all better hope we get something that works in the near future.
People hate it when others over promise and under deliver.
The prudent thing to do is temper expectations.
Especially since the results are almost sure to be less than clear and unambiguous, and laypersons are very hard to convince when the details of something complex are nuanced.
Especially if they are already sure of something which turns out to be a disappointment.
I am seeing a lot of people painting themselves into a corner on this chloroquine thing.
I sure hope they are right.

Vuk
March 20, 2020 11:41 am

Here are the latest numbers (infected and dead) available for Friday 20th March from the UK
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/UK-COVID-19.htm

Steve Z
Reply to  Vuk
March 20, 2020 3:23 pm

One way of estimating the mortality rate is to divide the number of new deaths each day by the number of new cases each day. This is an inexact measure due to the lag time between diagnosis and death, but the trends are interesting. Using Vukcevik’s data starting 3/12, we get daily values of 4.2%, 6.0%, 8.8%, 4.6%, 4.3%, 3.8%, and 11.3% in the UK.

The same measure in the USA results in mortality rates less than 2.0% over the last several days and trending downward (1.3% as of yesterday), which is sharply different than in the UK.

There may be several reasons for this difference:

1. There may be more coronovirus tests done in the USA per capita than in the UK, so that there may be more undiagnosed positives in the UK that are asymptomatic, who pass it on to vulnerable patients. With a smaller denominator, this drives the mortality rate up for a given number of deaths.

2. The COVID-19 virus may be more virulent in the UK than in the USA, or conditions in the UK are more conducive to severe cases.

3. There may not be as much access to ICU’s or ventilators for seriously ill patients in the UK as in the USA.

I’m not a doctor or epidemiologist, so I’m not qualified to draw conclusions, but somebody with medical training might want to look at these numbers and investigate why such a sharp difference. Is there something being done in the USA that is not yet done in the UK?

Vuk
Reply to  Steve Z
March 21, 2020 12:54 am

Hi Steve
Explanation is simple. In the UK for some weeks now only the hospitalised cases are tested, while people with mild symptoms are not tested and are told to self isolate. Most of the medical experts estimate that number of infections is up to10 times greater, bringing mortality figure downto order of 1%.
Currently there is lot of interest in the antibody testing which is much simpler and can be done by people themselves, method similar to pregnancy testing.

ren
Reply to  Vuk
March 21, 2020 3:28 am

Whether the antibodies can be used as a rapid vaccine?
The body must have time to produce antibodies before the pneumonia, which occurs with Covid-19 very quickly. Plasma preparations are often used in medicine. I know because I gave honorary almost 40 liters of blood.
I think we have more modern laboratories than during the Spanish flu. I might be wrong?

Phil Salmon
March 20, 2020 11:42 am

A lot of upbeat and optimistic commentary about coronavirus therapy or vaccine.

But if it’s so apparently straightforward to treat, why is there still no vaccine or treatment for the common cold – also a coronavirus?

John Tillman
Reply to  Phil Salmon
March 20, 2020 12:23 pm

The common cold is caused by more than one coronavirus, but you’re right. Vaccines against mammalian coronaviruses have proven challenging. For birds, vaccines have been developed, but face problems:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4411447/

However, if a vaccine works only until the virus mutates, that success would buy us time to break the cycle of spreading infection.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 1:17 pm

Actually, see my first post which covers this. The common cold is caused by roughly 120 different viruses: roughly 100 naked RNA rhinoviruses (~75%), exactly 4 enveloped RNA coronaviruses (~20%) , and about 20 of the near 60 DNA adenovirues (which also cause other diseases like pinkeye and PC for which there is now a vaccine for military use) (~5%). No hope of a ‘cold vaccine’.

John Tillman
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 20, 2020 1:41 pm

True. Even if we had a cold coronavirus vaccine, we’d still have lots of cold-inducing viruses out there.

Robert W. Turner
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 2:28 pm

How about putting some R&D into making these a reality?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4673452/

A large magnetron over the doorway of every airport, trainstation, and hospital that shatters viruses in air and on surfaces. Sounds like science fiction, but so did the technology we have today to people living not long ago.

mario lento
Reply to  Robert W. Turner
March 20, 2020 2:36 pm

Well, when walking petri dishes of infected humans are mobilized beyond the doorways, their shedding of infections will near 100% defeat the benefit of the modicum of sanitized air.

I work in nuclear… if we get any contamination, walking by a clean air station won’t stop the contamination.

It was described like this to me.
Radiation is like smelling dog poop. You move away and the smell is gone
Contamination is like having dog poop on you.

You get the gist.

Robert W. Turner
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 3:19 pm

Yeah that makes sense it only works in the air. It would only work on the infected if you increased the power enough to work within the body, but that cure could be similar to amputating the head.

Phil.
Reply to  Phil Salmon
March 20, 2020 12:29 pm

There are over 100 viruses that cause the common cold only 6 of which are coronaviruses. One of the mechanisms by which hydroxychloroquine may act involves zinc and one of the treatments that works to shorten the common cold is Zicam, it also uses zinc.

Stevek
Reply to  Phil.
March 20, 2020 1:30 pm

I would not be surprised if all of these coronaviruses came from bats at some point in human history. Over time humans have evolved to fight them and the viruses themselves have evolved not to kill people so they can spread more easily. I would not be surprised when these viruses first came to humans they had high fatality rate.

Phil Salmon
Reply to  Stevek
March 20, 2020 4:38 pm

That is indeed the general trend with evolution of parasites / pathogens. Their effects on the host get milder, for the reason that you gave. The process sometimes goes so far that what started as a disease becomes harmless passenger or sometimes even a symbiont.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Phil.
March 21, 2020 10:19 am

Phil
Zinc gluconate to be precise. I have found it useful to quickly knock a sore throat.

Andy Pattullo
March 20, 2020 11:49 am

I appreciate all this interest in the therapeutics and it is understandable to want to see a cure or preventive therapy that works. That said I have to add caution. I have seen all kinds of analysis to support the efficacy of these drugs but we have learned over and over again that the preliminary type of data we have such as in vitro (test tube) testing, anecdotal case saves, case control and retrospective studies often yields optimism when eventually the reliable research that requires prospective, blinded, randomized trials yields zip.

As someone whose job it is to prescribe therapeutics when indicated my peers and I will use these drugs in the appropriate settings for CoVID-19 and we are doing so today, not because we know they work but because there is a possibility they might and we don’t want our most ill patients to miss a chance of recovery. Till we know more however the best strategy is to prevent infections.

The previously posted correlation between high malaria rates and low CoVID-19 rates in nations should be recognized by all who follow this blog as meaningless. We all know that correlation does not mean causation or even that the two things correlated are in any way directly coupled. The very same nations that have high malaria rates are those that have the least health resources and have done a minimum if any testing. Many countries reporting no or few cases (e.g. North Korea and much of sub-Saharan Africa, Indonesia and India are most likely not doing much testing or else hiding their results. Malarious countries also have major climactic differences that may play a role.

Much of the statistical pattern we see is in fact an artifact of the testing strategy. Italy, Iran, China and Spain were surprised by widespread community infection when they began their testing after cases of ill individuals emerged. Most of their testing was initially focused on ill people and the high mortality reflects that. In China the highest mortality was reported near the epicenter and declined with distance (e.g. with the timing of the spread). It is very likely that declining mortality with distance from Wuhan reflects increased testing of minimally symptomatic cases or those without symptoms but history of contact (e.g. a screening strategy versus a diagnostics strategy). This is good news if true because it brings down the real mortality numbers as the denominator increases.

Germany has a high number of detected cases, a much more generous and extensive testing policy and a death rate of 0.2% (1 in 500) so far. Granted their mortality may rise as an aggressive testing strategy will find lots of recently infected folks who may progress to severe disease but the real mortality is somewhere in the middle and won’t be known for some time.

We can speculate all we want but we don’t know lots that we will know later: efficacy of drugs, overall mortality, whether ongoing mutation and recombination of CoVID-19 will make more or less dangerous/infectious/treatable, and whether our present extreme measure to prevent transmission are actually making a real difference or just creating social/economic harm. Time will tell.

mario lento
Reply to  Andy Pattullo
March 20, 2020 11:57 am

Very nice summary. To add my 2 cents on one point.

Deaths are fairly easy to count accurately since this is a mainstream function of societies. However, counting people in a general population who do not show symptoms or who are mildly to moderately infected is indeed extremely difficult and early on was quite literally impossible. So the denominator is grossly under-counted for all the reasons you so well stated!

I was early infected with Covid 19, and could not be counted even though I tried to find out how I could be counted. So I was a skeptic of the statistics for good reason early on.

John Tillman
Reply to  mario lento
March 20, 2020 12:27 pm

Least of all can we trust Chinese and Russian “data”.

mario lento
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 12:35 pm

LOL: I am a skeptic of even so-called good data. Data is not information, which require interpretation.

What I always want to know is, what is or what can the data telling us? How was it taken (who and what was sampled etc?

Interpretations can be dangerous.

Blog sites like WUWT are great for tearing through what things mean, might mean and don’t mean.

Sheri
Reply to  mario lento
March 20, 2020 1:42 pm

Mario: How did you know you were infected???

Mario Lento
Reply to  Sheri
March 20, 2020 1:59 pm

Sheri: It was deduced. Here’s the symptoms. Tested for Flu A/B negative. Diagnosis positive for viral infection respiratory system. Prescription Rescue Inhaler Albuterol. No way to test for Covid 19.

Day 1: fever chills, aches, lunch rumbly, not a lot of phlegm. No throat, No Sinus issues.
Note: When I get cold/flu it always starts in sinus/throat and after several days it goes into lungs.

This time, started in lungs.

Day 2 through 5: fever chills, aches, lunch rumbly, not a lot of phlegm. No throat, No Sinus issues. Through out, I needed to use Albuterol up to once per hour, two puffs.

Day 3: Doctor offered Antibiotics for potential bacterial pneumonia. I refused

Day 6: fever aches pains down to zero and major congestion down 90%
Day’s 7 through 21: 95% to 100% recovery

Day 10: visited to get released for public and work. They wrote me a note that I had no sign of viral infection. Which was weird. They said there was no way to test for Covid 19 still.

Alcheson
Reply to  Andy Pattullo
March 20, 2020 1:35 pm

Assuming you are a physician, I think you are incorrect with respect to testing Hydroxychloroquine in this case. Only prescribing Hydroxychloroquine at the last possible moment before the patient dies is inhumane. Hydroxychloroquine has been around for a very long time and it’s side effects well known. A voluntary trial which prescribes Hydroxychloroquine at the first onset of the disease after the willing patient signs a consent form would seem to be called for in this instance. The results of such a test would be clear within a matter of just a few weeks if the it is anywhere near as effective as claimed. There are already thousands of people in the control group. Letting thousands or more people unnecessarily die or incur permanent lung damage because well controlled, published and thoroughly peer reviewed studies have not been completed (months to years to do) is ridiculous. The safety and side effects of this drug are already very well known… thus the possible negative side effects pale enormously with respect to the possible benefits. If after 3 to 4 weeks there is no significant benefit to administering Hydroxychloroquine then it can be announced to the public as shown to not be an effective, inexpensive and safe treatment as hoped.

In addition, it is also irresponsible to say that the correlation between malaria countries and Covis-19 is meaningless. Maybe it is meaningless, but to say that outright without investigating the correlation is irresponsible at best in my opinion.

Stevek
Reply to  Alcheson
March 20, 2020 2:05 pm

I believe right now there needs to be guidance issued to doctors on what to prescribe, at what time and for whom. Where is this guidance, I have not seen it. Obviously individual cases will differ but general guidance and best practices need to be issued. Perhaps the doctors are worried over liability when prescribing things off label.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Alcheson
March 21, 2020 10:44 am

Alcheson

You said, ” Hydroxychloroquine has been around for a very long time and it’s side effects well known.” Yes, there is a long list of side-effects that have been observed. Death is rarely one of them, but others can be quite debilitating. However, there is no way to predict who will present with particular side-effects, or how severe they will be. We don’t know what the optimum dosage is, and the ‘safe’ range is not very large:
( https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/healthtrending/virus-drug-touted-by-trump-musk-can-kill-in-just-two-grams/ar-BB11rIHa )

You also said, “… the possible negative side effects pale enormously with respect to the possible benefits.” This reminds me of the typical climate alarmist warnings of how such and such “could, may, possibly, etc.” have consequences. You are assuming efficacy for chloroquine that is largely anecdotal, and minimizing the known side-effects for the general population. Also, something that you are not considering is the possibility for post-cure complications such as Reyes Syndrome discovered after widespread use of aspirin with viruses.

Remember the Hippocratic Oath: First, do no harm!

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Alcheson
March 21, 2020 10:54 am

Alcheson
You said, “…, it is also irresponsible to say that the correlation between malaria countries and Covis-19 is meaningless.” It is more irresponsible to uncritically accept the apparent correlation to support your advice of throwing caution to the wind.

Roy Spencer remarked, “The map says it all: COVID-19 is where Malaria is not.”
Malaria got its name from the Italians — meaning bad (swamp) air. Malaria was once endemic throughout most of the northern hemisphere. It was mosquito eradication programs in the developed countries that eliminated malaria. Since the people living in the countries where malaria is prevalent often cannot afford to take quinine prophylactically, and long-term use can have serious consequences, I see the maps as suggesting that the actual correlation is with the climate and not with chloroquine. The inferred correlation with chloroquine appears to be spurious. To sort out the confounding influences, I think that one should correlate the per capita use of chloroquine for each country with the prevalence of COVID-19, not with the presence or absence of malaria.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Andy Pattullo
March 21, 2020 9:40 am

One popular internet meme was that the disease was caused by 5G, which is why some places have no COVID-19.
The correlation looks good on a map.
As noted, that means nothing.
I think it may be a simple question of wealth.
The places with significant malaria remaining are poor places with terrible infrastructure, hence little ability for people in those places to travel widely and quickly, combined with fewer people with the resources to have traveled abroad and brought the illness home, resulting in a later onset of the contagion and slower spread once it has appeared.

Or maybe they have fewer touchy-feely types, chronic huggers, and close talkers.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Andy Pattullo
March 21, 2020 10:23 am

Andy
+1

Roger Knights
Reply to  Andy Pattullo
March 21, 2020 11:01 am

“Many countries reporting no or few cases (e.g. North Korea and much of sub-Saharan Africa, Indonesia and India are most likely not doing much testing or else hiding their results.”

Maybe they don’t want to discourage tourist revenue, or have flights to or from them blocked.

Rud Istvan
March 20, 2020 11:53 am

Correction and apology. Above comments are correct. Adenosine is the A nuceloside in the ACTG ‘alphabet’ for RNA and DNA. My bad.; a real inexcusable brain cramp.
The 20 amino acids are what build all proteins.

John Tillman
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 20, 2020 12:07 pm

Some organisms also use two other amino acids, Selenocysteine and Pyrrolysine. Humans are among those in all three domains of life which make selenoproteins, while only some methanogenic archaea and bacteria use Pyl.

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  John Tillman
March 20, 2020 3:46 pm

Around 1966, working for CSIRO, we sampled a natural legume Neptunia amplexicaulis that was causing sheep deaths in N-W Queensland. We extracted the toxin and confirmed that its mechanism involved substitution of Selenium for Sulphur in an amino acid. Neptunia was an sccumulator plant. Others are known and for more elements than Se. We later investigated some accumulators for help in mineral exploration using biogeochemistry.
Just for interest, John. Geoff S

John Tillman
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
March 22, 2020 3:57 am

The soil in my native region happens to be high in selenium, so we don’t have to supplement it in grazing livestock, or in local hay.

John Tillman
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 20, 2020 12:08 pm

U instead of T in RNA.

Fritz Brohn
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 20, 2020 12:16 pm

No apology needed. A minor correction in an otherwise damn fine article!

John Cherry
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 20, 2020 1:52 pm

And adenine is the nucleotide itself.

John Tillman
Reply to  John Cherry
March 20, 2020 2:48 pm

Adenine is the nucleobase which, when attached to a ribose sugar, forms the nucleoside adenosine. The nucleotide, with further addition of a phosphate group, is also called “adenine”, rather than its technical name, “adenosine monophosphate:.

Matthew R Marler
March 20, 2020 11:55 am

Rud Istvan, thank you for this essay.

Sunny
March 20, 2020 12:16 pm

Chloroquine seems to be a good investment lol

Novartis To Donate Up To 130 Million Doses Of Hydroxychloroquine To Treat Covid-19

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKFWN2BD1BP?__twitter_impression=true

ColMosby
March 20, 2020 12:30 pm

Some doctor/reseracher yesterday claimed a virus killer drug within two weeks

Stevek
March 20, 2020 12:30 pm

So if a virus can kill say 20,000 in the USA we don’t shut things down in order to control the virus. But if a virus can kill 100,000 we do shut things down. I wish to know the rules for when things are shutdown and when they stay open.

It seems to me people panic much more when they hear daily death numbers from every media outlet. We don’t hear these daily death numbers with any other disease.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Stevek
March 20, 2020 5:20 pm

This is a mod of a previous possible post AW nixed because NOT optimistic enough.

We have the data from Diamond Princess. 705/3711passengers and crew ultimately infected despite horrible conditions. So ~17% infected. Hopeful.
WE posted an analysis here previously. 392 symptomatic, 313 not, defined as fever 50 die, the numbers say there will be ~390000 deaths by Christmas. NOT GOOD.

OK, lets do another scenario based on Europe. Only 4% test positive instead of 8.5%. Right, run the math, only about 280,000 die by Christmas. Not good.

Stevek
Reply to  Rud Istvan
March 21, 2020 2:19 am

Thanks Rud.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Stevek
March 21, 2020 11:05 am

SteveK
The rules are a changin’! This is the first time in my long life that we have shutdown the economy for concern that a couple hundred deaths may explode into more than the ~50,000 deaths we experience annually with seasonal flu(es). But, yes, there don’t seem to be objective guidelines as to what is an acceptable death rate and what isn’t. It is interesting that we rarely hear anything about seasonal-flu deaths, except in particularly bad years.

jreilly
March 20, 2020 12:40 pm

Does the 2019 Coronavirus Exist?
The Coronavirus scare that emanated from Wuhan, China in December of 2019 is an epidemic of testing. There is no proof that a virus is being detected by the test and there is absolutely no concern about whether there are a significant number of false positives on the test. What is being published in medical journals is not science, every paper has the goal of enhancing the panic by interpreting the data only in ways that benefit the viral theory, even when the data is confusing or contradictory. In other words, the medical papers are propaganda.
https://infectiousmyth.podbean.com/e/the-infectious-myth-david-tackles-the-coronavirus-panic/

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  jreilly
March 21, 2020 9:39 pm

The answer to your question is: Yes, yes it does exist.
As for the rest of that malarkey…haven’t we all got enough of fake news in our lives?
The truth is a big enough PITA without a vomitous horde of modern day Luddites and biological flat-Earthers peeing in the soup.

Roy W. Spencer
March 20, 2020 1:03 pm

Rud, thanks for filling in all these details. I only understand some of them, but this is really well-written.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Roy W. Spencer
March 20, 2020 4:00 pm

I agree with Roy, the article is very well written. Rud makes things easier to understand.

Stuart Lynne
March 20, 2020 1:36 pm

Good explanation of the possible mechanism for Chloroquine here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE4_LsftNKM

Waza
March 20, 2020 1:45 pm

Rid
Firstly thank you for the essay.
Secondly, is there any evidence that elderly currently on RA medication are less impacted by the virus?

Waza
Reply to  Waza
March 20, 2020 1:46 pm

Sorry RUD

ian wylie
March 20, 2020 1:58 pm

There is strong evidence that Vitamin C in high doses (e.g. 1000 mg every 4 hours) is effective in killing viruses. This has been studied in some depth in previous flu epidemics. My personal experience is that it was 100% effective at least 5 times in returning me to health with 24-36 hours when combined with a doubling or tripling of fluid intake, no solid food and extra sleep.

If Covid-19 has the same vulnerability to Vitamin C as H1N1, SARS and MERS (why not??) then it is an excellent overlooked therapy not subject to patenting.

Here are some published (peer-reviewed) articles on the subject:

https://isom.ca/article/high-dose-vitamin-c-influenza-case-report/

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/bmri/2015/675149/

me be bg
Reply to  ian wylie
March 21, 2020 4:16 pm

The humans good IV vitamin C. The mice seem to of been given oral vitamin C.

Bill_W_1984
March 20, 2020 2:01 pm

Rud,

A few people have mentioned but you should change in post. Adenosine is not one of 20 Amino acids but one of four RNA bases/nucleosides.

John Tillman
Reply to  Bill_W_1984
March 20, 2020 2:54 pm

The base is adenine (also a convenient way to refer to the nucleotide adenosine monophospate). The nucleoside is adenosine, as I belatedly recalled.

Nucleobase: adenine;
Nucleoside: adenosine (adenine attached to ribose sugar), and
Nucleotide: adenosine monophosphate, aka “adenine” (with phosphate group added).

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Bill_W_1984
March 20, 2020 5:59 pm

Yup. apologies with NO sequelae posted above.

Stevek
March 20, 2020 2:07 pm

Seems one of the problems with this disease is it takes while for some patients to either recover or pass away. That means respirators, ventilators, hospital beds become in short supply. .

Robert W. Turner
March 20, 2020 2:17 pm

Where are the resonant frequency transmitters that will shatter these bugs in air? Is anyone actually working on making these a reality or will they forever be a neat lab experiment?

mario lento
Reply to  Robert W. Turner
March 20, 2020 2:21 pm

Microwaves work pretty well. I’m not going to volunteer. Just imagine the number of cells in the body that resonate at similar death frequencies!

Reply to  mario lento
March 20, 2020 3:00 pm

re: “Microwaves work pretty well.”

Heh. More like nano-waves (look at the size of the virus THEN you get an idea of the wavelength that would be most effective!)

Per wiki: The size of the virus particles is in the 80–90 nm range.

mario lento
Reply to  _Jim
March 20, 2020 3:12 pm

Yup: I was pretty thoughtless wrt to the size of the wavelength.

Reply to  mario lento
March 20, 2020 3:13 pm

re: “Microwaves work pretty well.”

Heh. More like nano-waves (look at the size of the virus THEN you get an idea of the wavelength that would be most effective!)

Per https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/ a diameter of approximately 60–140 nm

Even smaller than “millimeter” wavelength. Anything of fractional wavelength isn’t going to be intrinsically resonant (think: “tuning fork”) to applied EM energy and will respond minimally to an applied field … 1/2 Lambda (cut to length like a “dipole”) would be the ideal wavelength so an exciting ‘frequency’ with a wavelength of ~200 nm would be ideal (somewhere in the UV/EUV range).

BTW, to give you an idea of relative size, visible light is 700 nm (red) to 400 nm (violet).

mario lento
Reply to  _Jim
March 20, 2020 3:17 pm

I totally get it about freq, wavelength and then ability to resonate or make a standing wave based on natural frequencies…

Reply to  mario lento
March 20, 2020 3:32 pm

Didn’t mean to double-post either; a fat-finger on this end caused a ‘post’ when I was gearing up for a more in-depth verbiage on the 2nd version! (It is either that, or I have now confirmed that Windows is _not_ the deterministic OS we ALWAYS thought it wasn’t.)

mario lento
Reply to  _Jim
March 20, 2020 3:35 pm

I remember when people referred to Win NT as “not there yet”

Feedback was good!

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  _Jim
March 20, 2020 6:40 pm

Not sure about that. The question is about whether there is a molecular vibrational mode or other mechanism (fluctuations in dipole moments in the case of water) that can be tuned into. Water, a tiny molecule compared with a virus absorbs very well at microwave frequencies, as we know.

http://www1.lsbu.ac.uk/water/microwave_water.html

mariolento
Reply to  It doesn't add up...
March 21, 2020 12:48 pm

_Jim is correct. A wavelength of microwave range is too large to do anything but pass through nano sized particles. It will have no affect on them. _Jim is 100% correct…

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