FAO: ‘…early indications point to a near-record wheat production in 2020’

From the “global warming aka climate change is going to cause us all to starve due to crop failures” department comes this encouraging news.

Amid generally well supplied cereal markets, early indications point to a near-record wheat production in 2020

Release date: 05/03/2020

Global cereal markets in 2019/20 are expected to remain well supplied, comfortably covering the forecast growth in consumption.

FAO’s 2019 world cereal production estimate is currently pegged at 2 719 million tonnes, almost 62 million tonnes (2.3 percent) above production in 2018 and 4.7 million tonnes higher than reported in February.  The estimate of global production of coarse grains has been raised by 5 million tonnes to 1 444 million tonnes since the previous report in February, up by 2.4 percent from 2018. The latest revision incorporates recently released official figures with higher-than-previously projected yields in West Africa and Ukraine. The estimate of wheat production in 2019 has been kept nearly unchanged from the previous month at 763 million tonnes, 4.2 percent higher than in 2018 and the second highest on record.  Global rice production in 2019 is largely unchanged, month-on-month, at 512 million tonnes (milled basis), down 0.5 percent from the 2018 all-time record high.

Early prospects for 2020 crops1

FAO’s preliminary forecast for 2020 wheat production is pegged at 763 million tonnes, almost unchanged from the 2019 near-record level, as expected lower production in the European Union, Ukraine and the United States is likely to be offset by better prospects in Australia, Canada, India and the Russian Federation. For coarse grains, with above-average maize sowings and good yield prospects, 2020 maize production in Argentina is likely to come close to the 2019 record high. In Brazil, the official 2020 maize production is forecast at around 100 million tonnes, comparable to the high outturn of 2019, based on expectations that an expansion in area sown will offset lower yields due to dry weather. A strong production increase is expected in South Africa, raising this year’s output to above 14 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from the 2019 drought-reduced crop.

World cereal utilization in 2019/20 is forecast to reach a record of 2 721 million tonnes, up around 7 million tonnes (0.3 percent) from the February forecast. Following an upward revision of 2.4 million tonnes, mostly in India and Canada, wheat consumption in 2019/20 is anticipated to exceed the 2018/19 level by 12 million tonnes (1.6 percent). Greater feed use is the main driver behind the projected year-on-year growth in total utilization of coarse grains, which is now pegged at 1 445 million tonnes, almost 16 million tonnes (1.1 percent) higher than in 2018/19. Despite a 1.3 million tonne downward revision this month in anticipated non-food use, the forecast for world rice utilization in 2019/20 still points to a 1.0 percent year-on-year expansion, reaching an all-time high of 514 million tonnes.

FAO’s forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of the 2020 seasons has been raised this month by 2.4 million tonnes to nearly 866 million tonnes, keeping the global cereals stocks-to-use ratio at a comfortable level of 30.9 percent. At 277 million tonnes, 2019/20 global wheat inventories are raised by 2.6 million tonnes (1.0 percent) this month, reflecting an upward revision for the Islamic Republic of Iran corresponding to production estimate adjustments for recent years. Compared to their opening levels, global wheat stocks are forecast to rise by almost 2 million tonnes (0.7 percent), as anticipated large buildups in the EU, China, and India are expected to more than offset drawdowns in several countries, including the United States, the Russian Federation and Australia. By contrast, coarse grain stocks are forecast to fall by 8 million tonnes from their opening levels, reflecting large anticipated decreases in maize inventories. World rice stocks at the close of 2019/20 have been raised by 1.0 million tonnes since February to 182 million tonnes, marginally (0.4 percent) below their record opening levels. Expected lower closing stocks in Thailand this month are outweighed by higher anticipated reserves in India, where record-breaking public sector carry-ins and local procurement may lead the country to account for much of the foreseen rise in major rice exporters’ inventories in 2019/20.


Full report here: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/

44 thoughts on “FAO: ‘…early indications point to a near-record wheat production in 2020’

  1. Corona viruses from China, Ebola viruses from Africa… maybe viral pandemics are what is going to replace the Climate Hustle now that nature isn’t cooperating with the UN/IPCC on the CAGW scam?

    • The CAGW alarmists would take that same graph and predict from it that all too soon we will all be suffocating under piles and piles of wheat…..why it’s almost up to our ankles already! We are doomed
      (uh, not quite sure how to do the sarcasm thing…)

    • No , they’ll just add pandemic scares to a background of CAGW alarmism. Do not underestimate their capacity for shrill screaming panic messaging.

      Russia is now the world’s major producer.

    • Ya know, a thought, … according to the CAGW gods, CO2 increases water vapor and humidity, and humidity is the coronaviruses worst enemy. So, we need to take all this cheap oil we are about to get and burn it immediately farming even more wheat. Knock out three birds in one stone.
      1) kill the coronavirus scare
      2) jack up the price of oil
      3) cure world hunger.

      problem solved.

  2. Thanks, Anthony. Some good news from same sense of the “let them eat cake!” crowd. How long before the alarmists lose their nerve to continue lying? Wait, the COVID-19 is the same idea, in the USA yesterday was death 11 from COVID-19 and just went past 20,000 for regular flu for the season.

  3. How will the world starve to death because of AGW and over population if we keep growing so much food? Hopefully some will go to help the locust ravaged areas.

  4. Have a gluten full 2020. This might help with the locusts. But they’ll find a way to spin this as a negative story about co2 somehow. Very clever the dark side of the force.

  5. Quick, we need some hail storms fast to save the AGW crowd’s prediction. (Don’t you love how the solutions are always “destroy food and lives”. Very sad.)

  6. My seeds sown in 2020 refuse to panic and have decided of their own accord to germinate efficiently, rapidly and healthily.

    It is a funny thing: propaganda can do strange things to humans, but plant seeds just ignore everything and get on with responding to nature’s cues.

  7. I’m scared.

    The existential threat turns out to be the potential for grain bin collapse.

  8. Very simple response: because of climate change food is less nutritious. They’ve already made similar claims, now they’ll just say it louder.

    They can come up with an excuse for anything in hindsight. What they can’t do is get any forecast correct.

    • Except the USDA has been tracking the nutritional density since the 1960s and it has been declining but that is due to farmers growing for weight by increasing the “pith”. Hey you pay by the pound, farmers will optimize to get paid the most, can’t blame them.

      Seeing as it was going downhill in the 1970s and 80s before global warming (back when it was “ice age retruning”) it is hard for them to support their position that it is AGW. Not that facts ever matter to that bunch.

  9. From the “global warming aka climate change is going to cause us all to starve due to crop failures” department comes this encouraging news.

    Yes, but it will be less nutritious!!!!! Read on:

    How More Carbon Dioxide Can Make Food Less Nutritious
    The New York Times

    High CO2 Makes Crops Less Nutritious
    National Geographic

    Does Global Warming Make Food Less Nutritious?
    Scientific American

    Rising CO2 Is Reducing The Nutritional Value Of Our Food
    Forbes

    More Carbon Dioxide in the Air Makes Some Crops Less Nutritious
    Crops such as rice and wheat have lower concentrations of some
    nutrients when they’re grown under an atmosphere with higher
    levels of the greenhouse gas
    The Smithsonian

    Rice, the staple food of billions, could become less nutritious because of climate change
    The Washington Post

    Less Nutritious Grains May Be In Our Future
    National Public Radio

    Those are some pretty solid news outlets, certainly they wouldn’t lie to us would they?

  10. Carbohydrates are bad for you – this is more carbohydrate.

    Ergo, Global warming causes Diabesity…

    Solved!

  11. Although prospects for the world wheat harvest are good, the UK farmers have had a shocking time with heavy rain making the fields too wet to cultivate and flooding has killed of quite a large area of the wheat that was down.
    As far as the UK is concerned the wheat harvest won’t break any records.
    It will take a good spell of dry weather to get the fields accessible with tractors and supplies of spring wheat and spring barley seed are tight.
    Some farmers are saying that they will have to fallow their worst fields in order to get them back in reasonable order.

  12. Wow! If my math is even remotely correct (assuming the “tonnes” in question are metric tons, and using a rounded-off Earth population of 7 billion – it may be more by now, but humor me), and I know some of you will correct me IF I am off – lol! – the 2019 wheat production comes out to around 857 pounds per person! That’s a heck of a lot of wheat bread.

    And just another of many reasons to disregard the apocalyptic predictions of the chicken littles in the climate crisis/climate “science”/population crisis community.

      • nearly TWO Pounds in the UK – 800gms to be exact FYI. -quality of loaf dependent on water ( steam injected) amongst other things.

  13. It would certainly be good news if agricultural production increased in 2020 over 2019, but how does the FAO really know? 2019 was not a good year in the northern USA due to late snowstorms in April and even May in some areas. Some previous years have been ruined by extensive flooding of the Mississippi and Missouri rivers.
    Since we are currently in March, how does the FAO know how spring weather will affect agricultural output, if spring hasn’t arrived yet?

  14. The climate harm that 99.9 % of scientists now agree has been caused by humans, must be just round the corner.
    OK so this year’s harvest is the best ever.
    OK so storm energy, droughts, fires and floods are all declining.
    OK weather related deaths are 20x less than they were 40 years ago.
    OK there is no real tangible sea level rise.
    OK so the Earth is greening and plants photosynthesise more efficiently, needing less light and water.
    But just you wait – catastrophe will start any day now.
    Any day…
    Our computer models prove it.

  15. From the “global warming aka climate change is going to cause us all to starve due to crop failures” department comes this encouraging news.

    Yes, but it will be less nutritious!!!!! Read on:

    How More Carbon Dioxide Can Make Food Less Nutritious
    The New York Times

    High CO2 Makes Crops Less Nutritious
    National Geographic

    Does Global Warming Make Food Less Nutritious?
    Scientific American

    Rising CO2 Is Reducing The Nutritional Value Of Our Food
    Forbes

    More Carbon Dioxide in the Air Makes Some Crops Less Nutritious
    Crops such as rice and wheat have lower concentrations of some nutrients when they’re grown under an atmosphere with higher levels of the greenhouse gas
    The Smithsonian

    Rice, the staple food of billions, could become less nutritious because of climate change
    The Washington Post

    Less Nutritious Grains May Be In Our Future
    National Public Radio

    Those are some pretty solid news outlets, certainly they wouldn’t lie to us would they?

    Earlier I posted this with the links and it came up under moderation. OK, I understand that but now it’s gone. Why? Do I have to put [/sarc] on obvious sarcasm?

  16. The good thing there is a market for wheat. And if wheat production is good then production of grains used for alcohol and many other products is also good.

    And that is good right!

  17. “…likely to be offset by better prospects in Australia, Canada, India and the Russian Federation…”

    Australia? Home to the mega-drought and “worst weather/climate disaster ever?” With the vast majority of their wheat typically from NSW and SA?

  18. “early indications point to a near-record wheat production in 2020’”

    The farming world is utterly dependent upon the old common sense adage “Don’t count your chickens before they hatch!”.

    Here it March 2020 and number crunchers already are predicting near record wheat production.
    While a safe bet based upon expanded areas of planted wheat; but much too early in the year.

    Floods, locusts, severe thunderstorms, inconvenient rain, dust storms, etc. etc., are too common during Spring, Summer and into Fall.
    One should not tempt providence.

  19. The New York Times has always been a source of e coli , they went after Edison and the Wright Brothers. CO2 science.org has an article titled ” Can the quality of crop yields increase under elevated CO2 without sacrificing food quality. Yes you can have your cake and eat it to with nitrogen inhibitors (NI)

  20. Wheat breeding for yields has recently mostly been for genetics that increase the number of grains that can set (efficiency as reproducing) per unit area of the spike (in regards to the wheat spike’s dry weight) when flowers open (anthesis). This builds on breeding that selects for wheat plants with higher spike (dry) weight [which did/does so by reducing height/growth of the stem before flowering allowing the spike to gain more mass before, repeat before, the plant sequences to anthesis]?

    It is the spike (dry) weight at flowering which impacts the number of grains per unit of area that can set (on a spkie). Thus the number of grains drives greater yields in terms of the resultant grain weight in that unit of area. [Grain filling itself is a feature of the different ensuing conditions.]

    Although elevated CO2 (eCO2) experiments vary in many parameters eCO2 trend is toward increasing grain number [not necessarily individual grain weight, nor grain nutritional profile]. Which is consistent with eCO2 data of provoking greater dry matter content in plants & (as explained above) this occasions the spike dry weight at flowering to be greater. Why there is on average an eCO2 grain yield greater in spring wheat than winter wheat I am not sure; although suspect related to genetics influencing the respective ranges of the number grains that can optimally set.

  21. I don’t like the heard-like menthality of thinking: more is always better ans sign of success.

    Production is a reaction to market demand.

    In my former live, I encountered many tragedies of overproduction. Farmers are sometimes forced by market to destroy production – cost of harvesting and transporting was sometimes higher than possible gain.

  22. …..in the USA yesterday was death 11 from COVID-19 and just went past 20,000 for regular flu for the season.

    Now I was justa thinking, that just maybe the flu, the Coronavirus, the COVID-19, …… is just one of Mother Nature’s ways of enforcing her Rule of “Survival of the Fittest”.

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