Reposted from the Fabius Maximus Blog
By Larry Kummer, Editor / 25 February 2020
Summary: Epidemics are like wars in that truth is the first casualty. I see comment threads in which misinformation makes most readers know less than when they started. Meanwhile, this blockbuster good news from China is lost amidst the chaff.
First, a status report
From WHO’s February 24 situation report.
Outside China, there are 29 nations infected (1 new, 6 since Feb 3). There are 1,374 cases (261 new, 1,221 since February 3). This does not include the 695 infected and then quarantined on the Diamond Princess.
Blockbuster news from China
Here are excerpts from remarks by Tedros Adhanom, Director-General of WHO, at the February 24 media briefing. This is important news – contradicting guesses by the doomsters.
“We’re encouraged by the continued decline in cases in China.. …They found that the epidemic peaked and plateaued between the 23rd of January and the 2nd of February, and has been declining steadily since then.
That is good news, and not just for China. With no preparation and relatively primitive public health networks (compared to those of developed nations), the epidemic stabilized in roughly four weeks – probably due to China’s fast and large quarantines. That is good news, because other nations are relying on quarantines to contain the infection.
Also, this suggests that the doomsters’ predictions that the epidemic would prove uncontrollable in China – sweepting through to its four corners – are wrong. China’s 77 thousand cases sounds like a large number, but it is a small fraction of China’s 1.4 billion people. That is true even if the true number infected is twice as large, or even (implausibly) five times as large.
“They found that the fatality rate is between 2% and 4% in Wuhan, and 0.7% outside Wuhan.”
The fatality rate in the developed nations will certainly be lower than that in China outside Wuhan (medical facilities in Wuhan are overwhelmed), although the estimate of a 0.7% fatality rate might be wrong. Original estimates were over 2% (e.g., here). If proven correct, this is great news.
“They found that for people with mild disease, recovery time is about two weeks, while people with severe or critical disease recover within three to six weeks.”
That is also important news, as the length of time required for treatment of critical cases determines how quickly an epidemic overloads the hospital facilities of a region.
The Director gives the bottom line about the status of the epidemic: it is not a pandemic, yet.
“The sudden increases of cases in Italy, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Korea are deeply concerning. There’s a lot of speculation about whether these increases mean that this epidemic has now become a pandemic. We understand why people ask that question.
“WHO has already declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern – our highest level of alarm – {on January 30} when there were less than 100 cases outside China, and 8 cases of human-to-human transmission.
“Our decision about whether to use the word “pandemic” to describe an epidemic is based on an ongoing assessment of the geographical spread of the virus, the severity of disease it causes and the impact it has on the whole of society.
“For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or death. Does this virus have pandemic potential? Absolutely, it has. Are we there yet? From our assessment, not yet.”
See the WHO website for details about the meaning of “pandemic” (here and here).
The doomsters spread panic
The doomsters are multiplying faster than those infected with the diesase, spreading misinformation. They use graphs showing rapid growth in the small numbers of infected to make this seem like a major pandemic outside China. It’s not, at least yet.
They make bold statements about COVID-19 not justified by currrent research, especially comparing it to the flu. Most importantly, they assume developed nations will have the same rates of spread & mortality as China – despite our vastly better medical infrastructure.
Making this much worse is the same dynamic seen in the climate change debate: experts seeking their 15 minutes of fame by making statements (often quite wild) that are outside of the consensus, without mentioning that. In the early stages of the epidemic, there was pushback to this by other experts. Now, as in climate science, the pushback has stopped – encouaging more experts to fuel the hysteria for their own gain.
What next?
Epidemics are like wars in another respect: their outcomes are difficult to predict. But whatever happens, this is – as I said on January 25 – a historical milestone. The combination of global organization and high tech has allowed preparations during the past 54 days of an unprecedented speed and scale. Without these, by now we might be in the midst of a devastating global pandemic. This is progress.
But as usual, Trump wants to reduce our defenses to anything other than war. In the midst of the Coronavirus epidemic, President Trump proposed cutting funding to the World Health Organization by 53% and to the Pan American Health Organization by 75%. Madness.
It’s easy to follow the coronavirus story
The World Health Organization provides daily information, from highly technical information to news for the general public.
- There is their daily situation report, with detailed numbers.
- The Director-General of WHO gives frequent briefings, which are quite insightful.
- Their daily press briefings have more information. An audio goes up quickly afterwards. A transcript is posted the next day.
Posts about the coronavirus pandemic.
- The 2019-nCoV virus shows that we’ve built a better world.
- Hidden news about the epidemic sweeping across America! – How fake news drives out good news.
- Amazing but hidden news about coronavirus – Update about the epidemic, and why so few know the good news.
- Lessons from the coronavirus about climate change.
- Cut thru myths to see facts about COVID-19.
For More Information
Ideas! For some shopping ideas, see my recommended books and films at Amazon. Also, see a story about our future: Ultra Violence: Tales from Venus.
Please like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. Also, see these posts about epidemics…
- See the ugly cost of the next big flu pandemic. We can do more to prepare.
- Stratfor: The superbugs are coming. We have time to prepare.
- Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2009 swine flu in America.
- Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2015 ebola epidemic in America.
Films about scientists responding to global threats
In these films, we see scientists behaving according to their and our highest ideals.
When Worlds Collide
Contagion (2011).
Available at Amazon.
Available at Amazon.
As of 24:00 on Feb 24, the National Health Commission had received 77,658 reports of confirmed cases and 2,663 deaths in 31 provincial-level regions on the Chinese mainland and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, and in all 27,323 patients had been cured and discharged from hospital. There still remained 47,672 confirmed cases (including 9,126 in serious condition) and 2,824 suspected cases. So far, 641,742 people have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients. 87,902 are now under medical observation.
http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/25/c_76890.htm
Will this virus persist throughout the northern hemisphere during its coming summer? Will air conditioners assist this survival?
Should the virus persist another 3 months (highly likely) the Sth Hemisphere has a big problem just around the corner. A high proportion of the public have at least one cold/yr – mostly during winter months. The moment one gets a sniffle it will be off to the doctor where there will have to be tests. Our NZ system cannot possibly cope. The stupid and unpopular policy of ramping up economic growth through immigration has already stretched our health service to the limit. What of urgent cases of other ailments? They still need care.
The real positive outcome from this is the imposed realisation that nature rules and that issues like climate hysteria are just a symptom of a spoiled decadent society.
I have long longed for a global wake-up call to bring society back to what really matters. Maybe then the woke-sickness pandemic will be put to bed.
M
I read somewhere in all of my reading on this subject that influenza transmits year round in the equatorial belt, with seasonal variation aligning to wet vs dry conditions irrespective of temperature.
YMMV
Warmer Northern Hemisphere weather will significantly dampen transmission rates over the next 3 weeks as Winter ends. The 0.39 degrees of warming the last 3 decades will reduce the transmission and death rates for all influenza strains by several thousand in the US (via Fall and Spring Flu Season truncations).
This Corona Virus is not easily transmitted via “airborne” vectors, and it is O2 labile. So the more folks spend outside the faster the contagion rates will fall off.
how many tests have been done three weeks ago? how many tests have benn done yesterday? who did it? how did they get to the suspected cases?
“Epidemics are like wars in that truth is the first casualty.”
Here’s the problem, Larry, I do NOT believe YOU. I don’t know you. I haven’t tested your truthfulness.
I do KNOW that the Chinese government LIES. Frequently. And that there is absolutely NO way to verify a word that they report.
I do NOT trust W.H.O. or any other U.N. agency or organization.
In fact, based on recent events, I have very LITTLE trust in the American government.
So, if “Epidemics are like wars in that truth is the first casualty.”, then we need to start by NOT trusting a word you or the Fabius Maximus Blog report.
On the flip-side, I have tested Alex Jones and those he has had on his shows and the articles he posts on his website. I’ll start by trusting the reporting of someone I HAVE tested.
Dan Bongino suggests a 24- to 72-hour wait to see how a story pans out. The Wuhan Corona Virus story has been going on since before December 2019. I think I’ll wait for a couple more months to see how it plays out.
We are unlikely to ever know the truth about the virus. We will learn a lot of facts, but like Seth Rich, all we will know is “that some people did something.”
By the grace of God, man, find a more reputable ‘source’ than PrisonPlanet and that ‘roid-rager Alex! His accuracy for Y2k was ZERO! His ‘FEMA internment camps’ faded like a honeymoon you-know-what! But nobody OLD ENOUGH to remember is around on the ‘boards’ to remind others about these big prediction failures.
Well, of course I’ve been to China.
They have not only no CNN. Half of the internet is cut away. No even Google.
A month ago my Chinese students arrived. I asked them “what do you think about Greta Thunberg?”
They answered: “who?”
I am impressed by China economy. Yet, the power is monopolized by communists. It does not matter they are capitalistic. Communists always were always money hungry.
A longish comment, fact based as we know the ‘facts’ today.
Latency
The incubation period is not more than ten days (2-7 in most case reports, possible viral exposure titer related). Confirmed by the Italian situation. Means 14 day quarantine suffices.
Unlike SARS, Asymptomatic transmission during incubation is now very well established—Steve Walsh of UK (Singapore to French ski resort) case. Means travel fever screening is useless for containment.
There are anecdotal Chinese reports of of longer incubation times. Worrisome because in one case 5 people were infected yet the carrier NEVER (as reported by China late last week) developed symptoms—a Typhoid Mary situation cannot now be ruled out.
Infectivity.
Most models now settling in on Ro 2.5-3.5. SARS was 3. The Italian and South Korean experiences also suggests 3ish. That is high and only quarantine and later a vaccine will bring it down.
Lethality.
Newest estimates are 80% of cases begin resolving in about 10 days from symptom onset. 20% worsen significantly, and about 5% become critical.Deaths are within that subset. Without ICU, that 5% will die of lower respiratory viral pneumonia.
The numbers are still all over the map. Cannot trust China (low). Cannot trust Iran (high). Looking to Italy and using yesterday’s reports, 7/229 or about 3 percent dead even with ICU support; in Italy, all old and 5/7 with reported underlying comorbidity (cancer, diabetes, hypertension). So in developing world (Iran) and if ICU get overwhelmed elsewhere, 5% is a plausible mortality number from present information. This is half of SARS.
Treatments.
The clinical trial in China of remdesivir has commenced but there are no interim results yet.
Moderna crashed thru a potential vaccine targeting stable regions of the S protein, using their novel RNA platform approach (which so far in 9 years has NOT produced any approved drugsnor vaccines. But the target is only an educated guess. 500 vials have been provided NIH and phase one human testing (safety, antibodies) begins next month.
Outlook
Not as optimistic as Larry makes out. The Iran and Italian situations are the reasons.
In Iran it is fairly certain it started by human to human in Qom, which has about 700 Chinese seminarians plus several Chinese construction projects.
In Italy they have been unable to find patient zero in Lombardy. The first symptoms were in a 38 year old Unilever employee with no China human connections. There is a possibly he received a business air freight delivery from China with viable virus on the packaging, as Virion survival is typically something less than 4 days depending on surface, temperature, and other environment conditions, and airfreight is overnight.
“In Italy they have been unable to find patient zero in Lombardy. The first symptoms were in a 38 year old Unilever employee with no China human connections.”
I’m starting to wonder if this isn’t a virus that already had wide distribution in the human population, and is only on the radar now because somebody was looking for something. Just because we test for and find it now doesn’t mean that it wasn’t there before, because we weren’t testing for it before. Now we test and find it everywhere because it was everywhere.
George Bernard Shaw once said, “the characteristic microbe of a disease might be a symptom instead of a cause”, which I find to be a fascinating perspective. As an example, most people, maybe everyone, has Candida yeast in their bodies. It doesn’t k!ll healthy people because their immune systems don’t let it. It can, however, k!ll immuno-compromised people. So when a person dies from Candida overgrowth, is the mortality really due to the microbe, or due to a deficient immune system? Remember, everyone is infected with Candida. So really the disease is an unhealthy immune system, and Candida overgrowth is a symptom of that.
So maybe what we’re seeing now is the result of sub-optimal health, and not some new pathogen that we never saw before because we weren’t looking for it.
Interesting. As you know I think there is something funny about it, and I have my favourite theory, but who knows?
You wouldn’t need a direct contact in Italy. Couple sits down at a cafe table. The previous occupants were Chinese who were unknowingly infectious. They drank coffee, wine, and talked, spreading micro-droplets everywhere. The new couple pick a napkin from the dispenser and wipe their mouths, put their hands on the table and scratch their nose. That will do it. Italy has vast numbers of Chinese tourists.
Rud, you are over-thinking this, and puting too much trust in reports. Stop trying to predict anything by speculating, the information is too inaccurate. Neither the Iran or Italian situations make sense, they are too unlike the other countries, so I suspect the information about those countries is incorrect.
What we do know, from COVID-19 infections in developed nations, is that it isn’t a very dangerous virus.
holly elizabeth Birtwistle: “What we do know, from COVID-19 infections in developed nations, is that it isn’t a very dangerous virus”
WR: Not a very dangerous virus? Italy: 11 dead out of 323 cases (yesterday 229) and still critical another 19, nearly all deaths from last week. Spreading TODAY to Germany, Spain (mainland and Canary Islands), Algeria, Austria, Switzerland, and to other parts of Italy.
Give her time.
The other day she said it was a nothingburger.
Today, it isn’t very dangerous.
Also we know that Italy is not a developed country, and that anything that does not fit preconceived notions should be discarded as making no sense.
Okay, maybe she will need a lot of time.
Childhood measles is ultra non dangerous (kills less than one over ten thousand) in these same countries, but any case of measles still almost causes a panic.
Rud
You said, “Means travel fever screening is useless for containment.” I think that “useless” is imprecise. Because of the high false-negative findings, a large number will slip through. However, the approach is removing some carriers (Along with a very small number of false-positives.) at the height of their symptoms. So, the approach isn’t “containing” the virus, but it is at least reducing the potential carriers and reducing the rate of expansion.
one of the american health people on abc aus radio stated that screening at airports would maybe be about 50/50% useful many wont have a fever at that time
“Lethality.
Newest estimates are 80% of cases begin resolving in about 10 days from symptom onset. 20% worsen significantly, and about 5% become critical.Deaths are within that subset. Without ICU, that 5% will die of lower respiratory viral pneumonia.
The numbers are still all over the map. Cannot trust China (low). Cannot trust Iran (high). Looking to Italy and using yesterday’s reports, 7/229 or about 3 percent dead even with ICU support; in Italy, all old and 5/7 with reported underlying comorbidity (cancer, diabetes, hypertension). So in developing world (Iran) and if ICU get overwhelmed elsewhere, 5% is a plausible mortality number from present information. This is half of SARS.”
https://nucleuswealth.com/articles/updated-coronavirus-statistics-cases-deaths-mortality-rate/
Interesting link, many interesting graphics
The all old us because in Italy, like South Korea, the current dead vs case load is very early. This means those that died there, died very early in the illness. ( Elderly and pre-disposed to be vulnerable to this) S.K at about 1000 current cases, will not reach a mortality number for that many cases for at least two weeks. Italy, same thing.
The more exponential the growth, and the earlier in that growth pattern, the more misleading on the low side is the mortality numbers.
China health authorities in Guangzhou’s Liwan district are reporting clinically observed situations where (please click here to see report in Mandarin language) a quarantined family of family of six having been isolated for 30 days without any outside contact and were initially tested negative upon the start of their quarantine, started developing symptoms after 30 days
Today in Europe we got new cases in Italy (various places), France, Austria, Switzerland, Kroatia, Spain (Barcelona and Tenerife), we saw a Dutch minister returning from Iran who has not been tested….., we saw people in quarantine in the hotel in Tenerife that think they can still be together at the swimming pool etc. etc.
The Dutch minister: “During the flight back we have consulted the company doctor and the RIVM (WR: the Dutch government institute for public health) and in consultation we decided that we normally can enter the Netherlands. The advice was not to get a test. When people don’t have any signs such a test makes no sense”, the minister said.
WR: People can spread the virus without showing any signs. People who visited Italy took back the virus to their own country. The same minister had contact with his colleague foreign minister in Iran who had contact with an Iranian administrator who probably was infected with the virus. https://nos.nl/liveblog/2324476-twee-coronagevallen-in-tirol-nederlanders-in-hotel-op-tenerife-in-quarantaine.html
We are still VERY naive about the virus. Exactly what we saw in the beginning in China BUT WE SHOULD HAVE LEARNED FROM CHINA, both from what has happened in Wuhan and from what has been an adequate reaction in the rest of the country (which has a surface area comparable to Europe).
Right now, everywhere in the world but surely in Europe we should:
• stop shaking hands
• stop giving hugs
• take all kind of hygienic measures
In all countries where we find new cases we should DIRECTLY stop unnecessary social contacts. We should:
• stop celebrating anniversaries
• stop visiting all kinds of social events, including weddings and funerals
• stop all sport events
• stop all other not strictly necessary events
• stop as much travelling as possible
• give the highest priority to isolation of everyone who has been in contact with infected persons
• project and prepare extra hospitals that are fast to build, isolating every patient apart
• speed up production for medical necessary items
• etc. etc.
No time to loose. China has shown the way how to react, Italy shows us what happens when you react ‘half’. If you want to control the virus you must be PROACTIVE and super straight.
I don’t like to be an alarmist. But I see the virus spreading rapidly through Europe. And I see our administrators reacting ‘half’ or even ‘not’. Which makes me very worried.
To be added (latest news): In the south of Germany a man who has been travelling to Milan in Italy tested positive.
On average it takes 5-7 days to show signs of the sickness.
You describe yourself why it is too late to stop it.
It is already spreading through communities.
No point is sweating it now.
Better to be one of the first infected, IMO.
A virus that spreads like this one, meaning it spreads like a cold or the flu, has one chance to be contained.
This cat is out of the bag.
Anyone who cannot see that is not paying attention.
Why does anyone think stock markets are dropping like they are.
The CDC and numerous health officials have said as much, when they say that a pandemic is probably only a matter of time.
It is only probable if someone thinks it will just go away all of a sudden.
In time it will become less virulent, but by then probably years will have passed.
Avoiding it will be like avoiding any other illness.
The good news is, it is unlikely the death toll will be additive to that of the flu.
The flu kills so many because of who it kills…very frail people who are one illness away from death.
This has been demonstrated to be true by epidemiological studies.
One more: 12 Kilometers from the Dutch/German frontier a German man tested positive. About 170 km from Amsterdam. It is getting close.
https://rp-online.de/nrw/staedte/duesseldorf/lungenerkrankung-erster-fall-von-corona-erkrankung-in-nordrhein-westfalen_aid-49191227
It is in the US. Someone has tested positive in California with no known contacts with anyone who has been out of the country, etc.
I suspect that hundreds of people were in Wuhan and left days and maybe weeks prior to the disease being recognized.
And,
1. Try to keep 2 metres space in public.
2. Avoid talking to strangers.
3. Cough into your elbow, not your hand, or a tissue or a handkerchief. You’ll get virus all over your hand when you dispose of it/put it away.
4. Avoid touching things when you are out.
5, Keep your hands off all handrails.
6. Don’t touch your face in a public place.
7. Wash your hands every hour and always when you come in from outside.
7. When you leave a public toilet, open the door with your sleeve or or your bag, not your hand.
“When people don’t have any signs such a test makes no sense”. FFS. I can only hope that they know something I don’t (which would be in any way unusual).
Wim, here in Canada, and in the U.S., COVID-19 isn’t very deadly, nor spreading. Why is that I wonder? We are not naive about this virus. It has proven, world-wide, neither to be spreading rapidly, nor deadly. Influenza is more of a threat, and kills more people, but we never hear numbers about influenza’s infection and death rate or other sensible comparisons from WHO or the MSM. Information from Italy and Iran seems at odds with what is happening in other countries. Both WHO and the MSM seem to want to exaggerate and promote irrational and unwarranted fear, and I’m not surprised. Back in the real world, this virus is not a serious threat.
Coronavirus COVID-19 represents “a tremendous public health threat” says CDC
“We are not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet. But it is very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen.”
“This new virus represents a tremendous public health threat. We don’t yet have a vaccine for this novel virus nor do we have a medicine to treat it specifically.”
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid19-tremendous-public-health-threat-says-cdc-feb-21/
re:
Did the emote in the head office write that? WHERE was she when I was affected by local contagion that took me a good month to recover from in the early 1990’s? Oh, no ‘internet’ (LIKE we have now) back then. Note also ‘weasel’ terms used in this phrase alone: “very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen”.
Emotes going to ’emote’; Does she look like an emote?
A virus does not listen to emotions nor to opinions. A virus is very small and is difficult to control. In our interconnected world it is very difficult to keep it outside.
The German man that yesterday was found to be infected was recently celebrating carnaval.
We don’t control everything. So we can’t exclude everything. But I hope we can control enough. That is what I wish for every part of the world. But when we close our eyes for what could happen, the unwished surely will happen. So let’s stay awake.
re: “A virus does not listen to emotions nor to … ”
Non-responsive to my question, which addresses office politics and PR moreso than the ‘technical’ issue of taming a virus; Continue on the technical aspect of this subject and we are on two separate ‘trains of thought’.
Dang Holly, your head is deep in the sand still, eh?
It is spreading.
It is a threat to as many as 2-3% of those who get it.
The economic damage is a threat to everyone.
Disrupting travel and commerce can all by itself lead to a recession.
Recessions can lead to politicians being voted out of office, homes losing value, people losing jobs, and an entire cascade of events.
You are leaving a few important words out of everything you have said.
Words such as “As far as I know”, and “So far”, and “At the present time”.
And people who read the news and keep abreast of world events and such hear all the time about how many die of the flu.
Also left out is why no one makes a giant big deal out of the large number of people who die of the flu: It kills mostly people who are old and frail and not well already, and typically the cause of death is listed as viral pneumonia.
In fact the CDC does not sperate out flu and pneumonia deaths in it statistics. They are listed as one number.
This one kills mostly old and already sick people as well.
Mostly.
Question: If the virus is all around the world spreading gradually here and there, how would anyone know, prior to someone getting sick enough to wind up in the hospital and getting tested?
Of course the answer is that there is no way to know until that happens.
And in every place that has happened, and people who have been in contact with the sick person are tested, it is found that many more have the illness but had no symptoms, mild symptoms, or thought they just had a cold or the flu.
It takes about a month for some people to go from the time of first exposure to the stage where they are very sick. And that seems to mostly be happening to people who are old.
So we have no idea how many young people are sick and spreading it, because they are not getting very sick.
But now someone just got it in California and no one knows how.
So…still think it is not spreading?
Let’s see how things look in a month.
Dutch Minister eh, should prove interesting given that Iranian .gov blokes are going down with the virus.
” China has shown the way how to react”
Sorry but no.
China placed “potentially exposed” people into large public buildings with rows of beds right next to each other by the thousands. ( Estimated over 1.4 million) This is the Princess cruise ship on R naught steroids. No walls, common breathing air, large community restrooms – in short death traps, just as prisons, elderly homes, large apartment complexes, where people are locked in are.
That is NOT quarantine, it is a death trap.
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-continues-with-fake-reporting-of-71-new-deaths,-508-new-infections-and-as-more-contradictory-cases-emerge-
The early deaths in Italy and S.K are because in Italy, like South Korea, the current dead vs case load is very early. This means those that died there, died very early in the illness. ( Elderly and pre-disposed to be vulnerable to this) S.K at about 1000 current cases, will not reach a mortality number for that many cases for at least two weeks. Italy, same thing.
The more exponential the growth, and the earlier in that growth pattern, the more misleading on the low side is the mortality numbers.
The numbers from China are corrupt, as shown by the massive adjustments they have made. The 3000 cases in other countries don’t provide enough statistics to yield meaningful numbers. Japan has a low death rate, so far. Italy, moderate; Iran, painfully high.
Unless there are factors we do not yet understand (e.g., a genetic predisposition for higher death rates), this still poses a significant health risk to all non-industrialized countries. They cannot afford to be isolated from the rest of the world.
Finally, if it takes “fast and large quarantines” to stabilize the virus, good luck if NYC, London, Paris, et al, develop into hot zones. That’s not fear-mongering. That’s recognizing that it is far premature to declare victory, and complacency could come with a steep price tag.
It just wasn’t Ebola…
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=117310&page=1
“Duncan and Scott also note that efforts to quarantine the Black Death were successful. In the wake of the first outbreak, Europeans learned that quarantining infected families for 40 days was effective in stopping the spread. Such a measure would not have worked if the disease were transmitted by rats, the authors suggest, because rats do not observe quarantine”
“Duncan and Scott believe their theory of a viral cause for the Black Death is supported by the recent discovery of a mutated gene called CCR5 that is resistant to HIV/AIDS. It is estimated that approximately 10 percent to 18 percent of those of European descent carry the gene.”
And what about mutation?
I side with the hope this thing will die down in the NH during spring and summer, giving us time to face it better prepared in the fall. More likely this is like H1N1 in that it stays with us. Hopefully, it will be like H1N1 in that we can develop a vaccine that doesn’t kill the vaccinated (as was the case for SARS in animal testing).
“Epidemics are like wars in that truth is the first casualty.”
“It’s easy to follow the coronavirus story
The World Health Organization provides daily information, from highly technical information to news for the general public.”
Hmm.
Propaganda is truth, half-truth, lies, and omissions in support of an agenda.
In the last decade to decade and a half, the powers that are roll out a new virus boogeyman about every 12 to 18 months. This one is overdue, but none the less, another virus boogeyman. The only difference this time is that there may actually be some kind of sickness going around China. Who knows?!
As for the propaganda, first, they were manufacturing the propaganda surrounding this virus boogeyman two and a half weeks prior to the “outbreak.” Because they use the same methods each time, it was apparent 2.5 weeks prior that they were cooking up another virus boogeyman. Second, and most revealing, South and Southeast Asia, with their many crowded and filthy cities and deepest connections to China, have suspiciously (omission) not been a focus of the propaganda surrounding the “outbreak.” India, especially. It most likely because of the latest tool to occupy the egg shaped office’s visit to India this week. Now that his visit is complete, expect India to soon start having “outbreaks” of the virus boogeyman.
Or put another way, the same people that put forth the lies of WNDs and “mobile launchers” in Iraq so as to launch a murderous war, and currently hold all of mankind hostage to annihilation by nuclear war, say we may all be doomed by another virus going around. Almost funny when one thinks about it.
“They lie about everything. Why would they lie about this?!”
From zero hedge comments section: All of these factors combined look very, very bad.1. Patients that test negative are released with few symptoms then later lest positive.
2. Many tests are giving false negative results, and only come up positive after multiple tries.
3. Reports of patients having 3 week gestation periods where they have no symptoms but are infectious, when the quarantine is normally only for 2 weeks.
4. Italy has not been able to find their “patient zero” who initiated the infections in that country, meaning they are still out there, and the spread cannot be contained. They may be an asymptomatic “super-spreader”, those who are responsible for 80% of infections of others, but make up only 20% of the number of people who are infected.
5. Reports that the virus can live on surfaces for very long periods of time, perhaps 42 days.
6. Reports that only one person went onto that cruise ship infected, but hundreds of people were infected while aboard, even though the passengers were locked in their cabins, which probably meant that the virus spread through the ventilation system.
7. The virus kiIls 1 in every 33 people it infects, and sends nearly 1 in 5 to the ICU. Compare this with a typical flu virus, which kiIls about 1 in every 770 patients (going off the 2017-2018 numbers), and hospitalizes about 1 in every 55 (note that I said hospitalizes, not necessarily sending them to the ICU.
8. Each patient who gets infected will infect about 3 other people, compared with flu, where each infected patient infects 1.3 people on average.
9. The number of infections doubled over the past 11 days. At that rate, it would infect a billion people within the next 4-6 months. However, viruses usually slow down their rate of infection as time goes on, but not always.
10. Reports by a later withdrawn paper from India that the virus had HIV-like features on it which are not found on other coronavirus specimens, with the authors arguing that it was likely man-made. Though the paper was retracted, other reputable scientists have said that it cannot be ruled out that the virus is man-made.
11. The virus just happened to originate near China’s only level 4 bio-weapons lab that works with coronaviruses, in Wuhan.
12. More shockingly, a fact that seemingly cannot be coincidence, numerous scientists working at that bio-lab have been caught selling lab animals to the very same meat market where the virus is said to have originated. Some made millions of dollars doing so. The animals are slaughtered live in the market, with the blood spilled in the market. There is no way that just happened to be where they tracked the source of the virus to.
13. Immediately after the outbreak became official, China deployed their leading military bio-weapons officer to study the virus. That Major General in the PLA has historically worked with coronaviruses often, and also was deployed to “study” SARS.
14. Only the CDC can test for this virus.
15. If this virus spreads to Mexico, it will probably go un-detected and uncontrolled in Mexico for more than long enough to spread it all over the U.S. via illegal immigrants, and Mexico will refuse to inform us of their cases, to avoid the closing of the border.If the Chinese military causes hundreds of billions of dollars in damage to the European and North American economy, and it can be proven that they let this happen with sloppy containment protocols, and they get thousands or even millions of non-Chinese people kiIled, that Major General needs to be captured, arrested, indicted for thousands of cases of negligent homicide, and there should be a military response to China’s actions, along with a permanent embargo of all trade with China and the deportation of all Chinese students, tech workers, government employees, and scientists working in the United States, followed by massive sanctions. A crime of such a scale must be punished. If a random scientist did this out of negligence, he would go to prison for life in Europe or the Democratic states in the US, and he would get the death penalty in several U.S. states, Russia, China, the Middle East, India, and much of the rest of Asia. China must be held rigorously accountable. This is yet another example of how foolish our leaders in the establishment have been to deal with China in search of profit. We financed their bio-weapons campaign, and now look at the return on our investment
Italy probably had multiple originations from the thousands of Chinese tourists, who would have been completely unaware they were infectious and were doing no wrong. Italian society provides an ideal environment for spreading the disease, which is a shame because I like Italian society.
Why are there no cases in sub-Saharan Africa? There are lots of Chinese people working there, and they all went home for New Year.Why no cases in Central America & Mexico? If the virus was progressing there then they would by now be in the same state as Iran, being unable to cover it up. Come to that, why are there so few cases in northern Europe with thousands flying in every day from China until 10 days ago, many transit from infection hotspots in China.
There is much about this virus that does not quite add up, does not work as we expect it to.
Exactly Harry.
Yes but I don’t agree with you that it’s not a very dangerous virus. I think it is, but there are peculiarities about how it works that we don’t understand. I just hope we can find out what, and exploit those weaknesses before we see more cities suffering.
Gee, could it be that cases simply aren’t being diagnosed because the medical facilities in this area are far less resourced than the rest of the world?
And everyone in SS Africa is too stupid to read about what is going on in the world, and they can’t recognize a list of symptoms? I don’t agree with you.
Why are there no cases in sub-Saharan Africa?
Heat?
possibly dryness of the air too?
when they found bats with Hendr living on hospital roofs in Africa they asked where were the Hendra cases?
reply was on the lines of so many diseases have similar symptoms and people die so often they dont test for much if at all when they do
Ebolas rather obvious with symptoms n bleeding so gets attention
There appears to be some data to support that this thing does not thrive in hot environments. Case in point: India
Oebele, if you believe any of that long list pf crap you just posted, you are quite gullible.
holly elizabeth Birtwistle, your opinion is not interesting at all. In case you have facts you are welcome.
@holly elizabeth Birtwistle:
If you don’t you are very gullible (or Chinese)
Many of those items are pure bullshit on that list.
For example, the one about the cruise ship people being locked into their cabins.
The passengers were supposed to be confined, but they were not locked in. Who knows how many snuck out.
Also, the crew were not confined to quarters…they were serving food and other needs to the passengers, and cruise ship crew do not get their own cabin.
Also they were cooking for everyone aboard, running the ship, etc.
And the people who did not have balconies were allowed out of their cabins but where supposed to stay three feet away from anyone else. Videos of them milling around and walking past each other in long rows have circulated.
Others had balconies, and went out on the.
Balconies are stackup up one atop another, and are separated by a thin wall.
Can virus particles drift downwards, or sideways in a breeze?
Can crew infect passengers while they serve them all food three times and day and attend to other needs?
I read at least one report of a girl who was crew who got sick, and after a while was told she did not have to work anymore and she could just go lie down!
At least one of the people who was taking info for the Japanese government was infected.
The ship was already infected when they were “quarantines” on the ship.
(Note, a quarantine means something specific…people are kept separate, attended by people who are not mingling about in public, and sick and well people are not kept in a common area. That ship was no quarantine…it was an infection tent)
That list appears to be a list of every ridiculous rumor and theory that has been dreamt up, as well as a bunch of stuff that is flat out wrong.
Another glaring mistake/lie: The level 4 bio lab is not a “weapons facility”.
There are apparently millions of people who hear or read the words biological research lab and their brain translates it into “bioweapons lab”.
What a bunch of bullshit.
Only the CDC can test for the virus?
WTF?
I think I need to debunk this list.
I did not see one item that appeared to be correct info or properly stated.
If you read that list and thought it sounded good…congrats…you are a dupe.
“Note, a quarantine means something specific…people are kept separate, attended by people who are not mingling about in public, and sick and well people are not kept in a common area. That ship was no quarantine…it was an infection tent)
Unfortunately China created thousands of so called quarrantines that are death traps.
China placed “potentially exposed” people into large public buildings with rows of beds right next to each other by the thousands. ( Estimated over 1.4 million) This is the Princess cruise ship on R naught steroids. No walls, common breathing air, large community restrooms – in short death traps, just as prisons, elderly homes, large apartment complexes, where people are locked in are.
That is NOT quarantine, it is a death trap.
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-continues-with-fake-reporting-of-71-new-deaths,-508-new-infections-and-as-more-contradictory-cases-emerge-
The early deaths in Italy and S.K are because in Italy, like South Korea, the current dead vs case load is very early. This means those that died there, died very early in the illness. ( Elderly and pre-disposed to be vulnerable to this) S.K at about 1000 current cases, will not reach a mortality number for that many cases for at least two weeks. Italy, same thing.
The more exponential the growth, and the earlier in that growth pattern, the more misleading on the low side is the mortality numbers.
Dear Holly. 13:42 BBC News 26/2/20:
Chinese nurses issue rare global appeal
“The conditions and environment here in Wuhan are more difficult and extreme than we could ever have imagined […] We need much more help.”
Two nurses in Wuhan, China, where the coronavirus outbreak began, have issued an unusual appeal for help in a letter to British medical journal The Lancet.
They ask nurses and medical staff from countries around the world to come to China to help “in this battle”.
They report that nurses have ulcers from wearing equipment, that their mouths have blisters, and that nurses have fainted from low blood sugar. They are also suffering pyschologically from “helplessness, anxiety and fear”.
“If a random scientist did this out of negligence, he would go to prison for life in Europe or the Democratic states in the US, and he would get the death penalty in several U.S. states…”
What a complete pile of horseshit.
You should be ashamed of yourself for even passing such crap around.
If you wrote it, you are one of the stupidest, most paranoid, and factually challenged people I have ever read the delusional ravings of.
The CDC is not upbeat today with “this could be bad”
An excessive (allergic) reaction of the immune system to an unknown protein can be as dangerous as weakening the immune system.
Sufficient vitamin D moderates that response
Only near the respirator.
I have no idea what that means. Vitamin D down-regulates cytokine activity and modulates immune response.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3256336/
If there is time for this, with acute viral pneumonia.
From the SARS outbreak in 2002 we know a lot about how the virus injures and kills.
Much of the lung pathology indicates an overaggressive immune response is what compromises the alveoli endothelium barrier and causes the viral pneumonia (fluid leakage into the air sacs. The primary culprit appears to be monocytes that infiltrate and attack infected/dying cells. The monocytes themselves become infected by the +strand RNA virus via their phagocytic response. Even though the monocytes do not produce high levels of virus, the virus inside the monocyte drives the monocyte to produce more chemokines that draw more monocytes to the fight. Lots of alveoli get compromised, then the plasma leakage to the interstitial space is the pneumonia.
This why in China doctors there use corticosteroids to try to reduce the immune response when the pneumonia is worsening and the patient goes on ventilator.
So Vitamin D could have a modulating effect, but probably not substantial.
As does baking soda. Half teaspoon twice a day.
TRM
Baking soda may help heart burn, but there isn’t evidence that it will do much more than a few ‘Hail Marys.” A placebo at best! (In my opinion.)
Not so fast there sport.
Published in the Journal of Immunology in April of 2018 and done by the Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University to name just one study (there are others).
https://jagwire.augusta.edu/drinking-baking-soda-could-be-an-inexpensive-safe-way-to-combat-autoimmune-disease/
It works and the study above thinks the link is via the spleen’s reaction. Works both to reduce or stop a cytokine storm along with other immune modulating responses.
Hey, looks like there is an upside to not having a spleen!
Woo hoo!
TRM
Something to be concerned about is that some people are sensitive to sodium, thus their doctor’s advice to limit table salt (sodium) intake. Self-medicating with something that appears to help rats may not be the smartest course of action.
TRM
Pardon me for being skeptical, but I thought that WUWT is where skeptics hung out.
https://autoimmunewellness.com/is-baking-soda-effective-treatment-for-autoimmune-disease/
Viral pneumonia must be treated in the ICU.
I understand that the Chinese had had no success with any treatment, the play was simply to keep the patient alive until their immune system could deal with it.
However they have recently claimed some success for large doses of intravenous Vitamin C. That is also the only thing that has made a dent in the Epstein-Barr virus. I read today that they are shipping vast quantities of Vit. C into Wuhan, although that was BTL on Breitbart and might well be fake.
IMO they’re weakening patients’ immune systems. Acetaminophen (Paracetamol) is standard treatment for fever, yet it depletes glutathione, the master immune system antioxidant. Antibiotics impair nutrient absorption in the gut (glutathione requires vitamin C); the more toxic antibiotics can cause adverse side effects; I read about one they’re using in China that can permanently damage the Achilles tendon. Add toxic antivirals and other drugs to the mix and it’s no wonder (to me) that patients lie at death’s door.
There are at least 3 vitamin C trials going on now. Hopefully we can see some results soon.
The paradigm of “hit hard and hit early” popularized for the treatment of AIDS also appears to apply to the way H5N1 avian influenza virus causes tissue damage in human infections. The rapid and intense nature of the host inflammatory response is the suspected cause of severe lung damage (116). In a case study conducted in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, comparing 18 people infected with H5N1 virus in 2004 and 2005 to 8 people infected with seasonal H1N1 influenza virus, elevated levels of MCP-1 (known as CCL2), IFN-γ-inducible IP-10 (CXCL10), MIG protein (CXCL9), and IL-8 were observed in H5N1 virus-infected patients who progressed to severe lung injury (38). Over the past decade, compelling genomic evidence from animal model systems indicates that highly pathogenic influenza viruses aberrantly regulate cytokine and chemokine transcriptional responses, leading to a cytokine storm.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3294426/
Interesting.
Your information about the trials is very interesting. Three trials is good. If they all agree then we probably know something.
I would appreciate seeing updates when you have them.
50 tons of vitamin C shipped to Wuhan
http://www.orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n13.shtml
You can see the attraction. It’s cheap, needs only elementary nursing skills to administer and if it saves a percentage, it’s a huge win.
I have a long term viral infection and Vitamin C is enormously helpful, but enough make it work gives me vertigo. Bugger.
That makes sense to me Harry. I have used large doses of Vit. C to ward off colds most of my life, and it usually worked. It is non-toxic so is well-tolerated, and as a powerful anti-oxidant, presumably interferes with the virus’s ability to enter a cell or replicate inside a cell. I have heard of large intravenous doses being successfully used on other serious viral illnesses.
… and Cayenne Pepper to ‘ward off’ sore throats (which begins in a ‘culture’ irrigated by post nasal drip) for me …
My sister reports positive results from this regimen too.
Wait…are you saying we should be snorting cayenne pepper?
If that is the cure, I am a goner.
In other news, a new “challenge” for the kiddies is about to appear on you tube!
The “Snort a giant line of finely ground cayenne pepper” challenge!
Film at 11:00.
re: “Wait…are you saying we should be snorting cayenne pepper?”
You can try that if you want to, you’ll be the first (and likely the last as well!) Be sure and write an account of that experience. Additional points for a video to be presented to AFV.
BTW CP is best taken in liquids, soups, and even a dash in coffee or on mashed potatoes, fried eggs …
Only near the respirator.
If the virus damages the lungs, you need time to regenare. The patient suffocates without a respirator.
“… President Trump proposed cutting funding to the World Health Organization by 53% and to the Pan American Health Organization by 75%…”
Excellent idea. The UN and WHO and several other related bureaucracies have transformed themselves into vast self-rewarding useless parasitic organisations. Money would be spent almost anywhere else, especially on health and welfare. These bloated organisations are staffed by career orientated money drainers and not people bent on helping humanity.
+50
+100 nicholas, exactly right.
How much spare ICU space is in your area?
If the U.S. was over run by the virus the world would lose all its forests for paper to print out all the medical billings and statements.
It’s a good thing and not entirely unexpected that China will eventually come to grips with this new Virus. We may want to take some lessons for future new viruses although truthful information from China is always hard to come by. But the way more important side effect from all this becomes apparent slowly. Many companies are rethinking their supply lines. Concentrating things on China has become a risk that puts a premium on anything done there. This will hurt China more than the original virus outbreak did.
re: ” We may want to take some lessons for future new viruses ”
Like: Hand washing? Not eating raw, uncooked (what we could classify as vermin) ‘food’?
This is your final update. Good luck.
re: ” Good luck ”
Adding: As always, should you or any of your IM Force be caught or killed, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions. This tape will self-destruct in five seconds.
What are Larry Kummer’s credentials other than being a politically biased Website Blogger?
At least he knows to pose intelligent questions. Besides he knows how to answer them.
In his own words, from the web site: https://fabiusmaximus.com/about/authors/#Fabius
37 years in the finance industry, most of them at UBS. “performant centrist”?
“What are Larry Kummer’s credentials…”
Well, I do know they he is giving those of us here with high opinions of ourselves a run for the money for the top position.
Regarding that “top position” – right up there with John Milton’s favorite: “Vanity, definitely my favorite sin”
https://youtu.be/j6wWGtQjsq0?t=374
I have returned from Hong Kong last week and on WUWT I have already commented on what I observed.
One other thing my friends there said may be very relevant over the next month. They said that usually in spring there is a big rise in flu cases and general respiratory unwellness. This applies to Hong Kong and also to much of China. This is contrary to what we experience in the west and is be counter intuitive.
So if this occurs it may well have a big impact on Chinese covid 19 numbers and severity. It would not herald a big epidemiological increase in covid 19 but em environmental impact.
Lets wait and see if I am right.
Thanks for the update. Like others have said all data is suspect especially from a government and double that for dictatorships.
That said it is the re-infection that is worrying me. People recover and then a week or two later they are back being sick. The theories floating around are that it is some environmental factor that they don’t develop a full immunity or much worse that the virus is mutating at a unbelievable rate. Either way they can now infect a bunch more people (again).
Have you never had a virus, seem to recover, and then you’re sick again a week later, it seems to linger for a month? So? That’s not unusual. Happened to lots of people I know this winter. 4-6 weeks the doctor said. Environmental factor??? The virus is mutating at an unbelievable rate? Infect a bunch more people again?? The sky is falling? Again???? I find it baffling how so many normally sensible people become completely irrational when it comes to emerging viruses. New viruses emerge all the time, always have, particularly from China. Despite the movies and science fiction books on this subject that have sprung from fertile imaginations, the real world is completely different. Huh.
Successful viruses do not kill their hosts, which is why so few viruses cause death in healthy individuals.
re: “Have you never had a virus, seem to recover, and then you’re sick again a week later, it seems to linger for a month?”
Here to testify: Yes, I have. REALLY had to ‘throttle things back’ until I finally shook whatever contagion had ahold of me. This was +20 yrs back. Taming the (initial) sore throat that kicked it all off for me was key in not repeating these episodes.
“Successful viruses do not kill their hosts”
Wrong.
Funny thing about complex subjects…when you try to sum them up in a sentence, it is impossible to be correct.
This is incredibly wrong, in fact.
You should really shut up about this subject.
Rabies.
Smallpox.
Polio.
Dengue.
Influenza.
Hepatitis B.
Hepatitis C
HIV.
Ebola.
Marburg.
Lassa Fever.
Hanta Virus.
SARS.
MERS.
Yellow Fever.
Eastern Equine Encephalitis.
And many more than I can recall off the top of my head I am sure.
I will believe that report is true, when it is not from the place you just said cannot be trusted to have reliable info.
Assuming the report of re-infections is true, another possibility is that overwhelmed hospitals are releasing patients before they are fully recovered, and as a result the virus manages to re-establish itself.
Patients getting sick again when they stop taking medicine because they “no longer felt sick” is a problem even in western countries.
All very true and making the water very muddy.
Larry,
Please keep posting your “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” news notes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-diB65scQU
These are on par with a “Don’t Panic” button…
Have you ever seen or heard of a national, state or local government (or
agencies derived thereof) telling their citizens, “OK, PANIC” ?
Just Greta!
LOL. You win! Best comment of the thread.
re: “Have you ever seen or heard of a national, state or local government (or
agencies derived thereof) telling their citizens, “OK, PANIC” ?”
Would the words “take immediate shelter” qualify? Every so often wx conditions warrant the NWS to make such an announcement over NOAA weather radio …
Why do you give this man a voice at all? He is completely busted by now, and COVID-19 pandemic is about to explode worldwide.
Sources, other than the “Magic 8-ball”? https://www.indra.com/cgi-bin/spikes-8-ball
The North Koreans have a solution to Corona virus. The first person who showed signs of infection was executed. Unfortunately for the Norks, they’d have to execute a large percentage of their population to stave off an epidemic. It seems like a lose-lose proposition…
Executing those who become inconvenient is SOP for N. Korea.