Amazing but hidden news about coronavirus

Reposted from the Fabius Maximus website

By Larry Kummer, Editor / 7 Comments / 15 February 2020

Summary: The coronavirus epidemic provides amazing news. About the epidemic, about the barrage of fake news (that we love), about the fear it creates (that we love), and the wonderful hidden news that makes this a milestone in history.

“We need a vaccine against misinformation {and} a communications vaccine. We need to be able to communicate in a much more effective way.”
— Dr. Michael J Ryan at WHO’s Feb. 13 press briefing. He is Executive Director of WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme.

Pandemic

“News” about the coronavirus global pandemic!

If you have been reading the headlines from the “right” sources, you are terrified of the coronavirus pandemic. Pants-wetting is America’s new national pastime. No wonder our rulers and foes have contempt for us. Coronavirus disease is now known as COVID-19, the virus is SAR-CoV-2; details here.

Jan 23: Coronavirus Pandemic Simulation Run 3 Months Ago Predicts 65 Million People Could Die.

Jan 23: “Doomsday Clock Hits 100 Seconds To Midnight As Viral Pandemic Sweeps Globe.

Jan 24: Coronavirus Pandemic Simulation Run 3 Months Ago Predicts 65 Million People Could Die.

Jan 24: “This Time I’m Petrified”: Virologist Who Helped Discover SARS Offers Chilling Take On Coronavirus Outbreak.

Jan 24: “‘This Time I’m Scared’: Virologist Who Helped Discover SARS Offers Chilling Take On Coronavirus Outbreak.”

Jan 25: “‘Thermonuclear, Pandemic-Level Bad’ – Harvard Epidemiologist Warns Viral Outbreak Might Get A Lot Worse.”

Tweet by Feigl Ding about coronavirus

Jan 25: “Martenson: The Risk Of A True Pandemic Is Higher Than We’re Being Told.”

Jan 26: “Is Another Black Death On The Way?

Jan 29: “How Viral Pandemic Benefits The Globalist Agenda.”

Jan 30: “GnS Economics: Coronavirus Has The Potential To Trigger A Global Depression.”

Feb 1: “Fear Of The Coronavirus Is Spreading Like Wildfire All Over The Globe.” – I wonder why?

Feb 3: “Petition For WHO Director-General To Resign Reaches Over 210,000 Signatures.” – From where comes the misinformation about WHO?

Feb 3: “Brace For Impact: Global Pandemic Already Baked In” – “If we accept what is known about the virus, then logic, science and probabilities all suggest we brace for impact.”

Feb 5: “The Lies We Are Being Told About The Coronavirus.”

Feb 6: “Mish Exposes WHO’s Historical Controversies” – The usual nonsense. When dealing with disasters, some people always accuse agencies of acting too slow or too small. But I never hear people offering to give them the money to stand ready for any disaster, anywhere.

Feb 8: “The Pandemic Isn’t Ending, It’s Just The Beginning Of Global Disorder & Depression.”

Feb 10: “Even The Mainstream Media Is Now Admitting That Humanity Is Facing ‘A Perfect Storm’.”

Feb 11: “Hong Kong Coronavirus Expert Warns Outbreak Could Infect “Between 60%-80%” Of Humanity, Causing 51 Million Deaths.”

Feb 11: “Why Is The Government Turning 11 Military Bases Inside The US Into Quarantine Camps?” – Remember the big camps supposedly being built before Y2k?

Feb 12: “‘All Disasters Are Not Created Equally’ – CDC Powerless In Halting Spread Of Covid-19.”

Feb 13: “In Shocking Admission, WHO Advisor Says Coronavirus May Infect Over 5 Billion People.”

Feb 14: “Chaos Is Coming: US To Start Testing People With Flu Symptoms.”

Feb 14: “What If… The November Election Has To Be Postponed?

Feb 14: “If we accept what is known about the virus, then logic, science and probabilities all suggest we brace for impact.”

Feb 14: “Harvard Expert Warns, Coronavirus Likely Just Now ‘Gathering Steam.’

These headlines are from ZeroHedge. These stories are not all exaggerations and misinformation. Some quote actual experts seeking their 15 minutes of fame. But they fail to provide any larger context, such as that by the experts at WHO and CDC. It adds up to fake news. They publish this because they are smart.

Gallup’s surveys of Confidence in America’s institutions show a collapse during the past four decades. Especially the well-deserved collapse of our confidence in newspapers from 41% to 23%. So, many Americans have turned to vendors of exciting misinformation (see other reasons for this here). This makes fake news a fast track to success on the Internet.

The bottom line: the scarier the story, the less accurate the stories. That’s true from Climate Change to Coronavirus. Institutions trying to keep us informed about these complex and poorly understood issues (e.g., IPCC and NOAA) are attacked all sides. Sadly, Americans often express the most confidence in the most bogus sources.

“While the virus spreads, misinformation makes the job of our heroic health workers even harder. It is diverting the attention of decision makers. And it causes confusion and spreads fear to the general public. At WHO, we’re not just battling the virus; we’re also battling the trolls and conspiracy theorists that push misinformation and undermine the outbreak response. As a Guardian headline noted today, “Misinformation on the coronavirus might be the most contagious thing about it.
— Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of WHO, at a press briefing on February 8.

The hidden story

On January 25, I wrote that that “the 2019-nCoV virus shows that we’ve built a better world.” The response by public health agencies was faster and more powerful than anything before in history, a combination of global organization and high technology. China’s scientists isolated the virus on January 9 and sequenced it on January 10. On January 20 the CDC released a diagnostic test for the virus. On January 22, China quarantined the city of Wuhan.

Since then, China has implemented quarantines on a scale never before attempted. Coordinated by the WHO, the world’s nations implemented screening and research programs of unprecedented scale. See the full timeline here.

China has been hit hard by the epidemic. It combines poverty, high population density, and people living in close proximity with animals (even wild animals). It will have horrific epidemics. China’s people must deal with them. The rest of the world must act so that these epidemics do not devastate the other six-plus billion people

The great fear of the global public health agencies is that coronavirus would spread to poor nations with weak health infrastructure (those nations with strong ties to China are especially vulnerable) – from which it would spread around the world. So far that has not happened. WHO is working with those nations to make that less likely.

Every day the world becomes better able to defend itself against the coronavirus, with better screening mechanisms, better detection machinery, and better treatments (the first human trials of treatments have begun). Whatever happens next, this has made us better able to cope with it. That is why this is a milestone on the road to a better future.

The public health agencies are the core of our defenses. They are criticized for not accomplishing miracles with the small funds given them (see the Director-General speech yesterday). This shows the nature of our greatest problem: a failure to assume responsibility for our nation. But we can learn and do better.

World Health Organization logo

From WHO’s February 14 Situation Report.

See the full report.

  • Lots of bad news from China. But at their February 12 press conference, the Director-General said “The number of newly confirmed cases reported from China has stabilised over the past week but that must be interpreted with extreme caution.”
  • No coronavirus cases have been reported in new nations since February 4.
  • A total of 505 cases have been reported so far outside China, with 2 deaths (Feb 1 in the Philippines and in Japan on February 13).
  • Other than those on the quarantined Japanese cruise ship (blue below), there have been few new cases reported outside China in the past 5 days. See the graph; ignore the blue segment (click to enlarge).

WHO daily coronavirus cases outside China - Feb 14

Conclusions

Events in the three weeks since my post have validated my original assessment. This is a milestone in history, no matter what happens next. But this is not the amazing news. It is that this remains hidden news.

The news media are no different than McDonald’s. Both work in the free market, serving us what we want. Americans today want exciting and scary news, not accurate news. We saw this in the hysteria during the 2009 swine flu and 2015 ebola epidemics. This weakness of ours almost guarantees that we will make poor decisions as citizens about America’s future – about coronavirus and our many other big challenges.

It’s easy to follow the coronavirus story

The World Health Organization provides daily information, from highly technical information to news for the general public.

For More Information

Ideas! For some shopping ideas, see my recommended books and films at Amazon. Also, see a story about our future: Ultra Violence: Tales from Venus.

Please like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. Also, see these posts …

  1. See the ugly cost of the next big flu pandemic. We can do more to prepare.
  2. Stratfor: The superbugs are coming. We have time to prepare.
  3. Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2009 swine flu in America.
  4. Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2015 ebola epidemic in America.
A great film about epidemics in the 21st century

Contagion (2011)

Available at Amazon.

Contagion (2011).

This shows the progress of a pandemic from patient Zero, through global devastation, to eventual victory by the world’s scientists. The summary from the studio makes it sounds like a horror flick. It isn’t, or at least not entirely one.

“When Beth Emhoff (Gwyneth Paltrow) returns to Minnesota from a Hong Kong business trip, she attributes the malaise she feels to jet lag. However, two days later, Beth is dead, and doctors tell her shocked husband (Matt Damon) that they have no idea what killed her. Soon, many others start to exhibit the same symptoms, and a global pandemic explodes. Doctors try to contain the lethal microbe, but society begins to collapse as a blogger (Jude Law) fans the flames of paranoia.”

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332 thoughts on “Amazing but hidden news about coronavirus

  1. Yes …. those silly Chinese … they are SO gullible …
    they believe there is a problem .
    They should listen to you .

    • Sweet,

      What a weird comment! China’s rapid and large response to their epidemic is one aspect of the so far effective global response. Let’s replay the tape for those who comment without reading the post.

      “China has been hit hard by the epidemic. It combines poverty, high population density, and people living in close proximity with animals (even wild animals). It will have horrific epidemics. China’s people must deal with them. The rest of the world must act so that these epidemics do not devastate the other six-plus billion people. …

      “China has implemented quarantines on a scale never before attempted. …

      “Lots of bad news from China. But at their February 12 press conference, the Director-General said ‘The number of newly confirmed cases reported from China has stabilised over the past week but that must be interpreted with extreme caution.'”

      • Larry, you are right. I don’t think there is any other country in the world that would have given such a powerful reaction in order to contain this massive outbreak of the virus. Locking up 60 million people and more: Shanghai and Peking and other cities also are ‘closed’. A huge blow for the economy, a huge blow for the personal freedom of everyone involved and a huge blow for the country which is not the richest country in the world.

        China is not only trying to save itself, China already blocked outward travelling for their citizens at a very early moment. They behave very responsibly to the rest of the world as well: when China loses this fight against the virus the rest of the world has a huge problem too.

        Not so many people realize that this virus has the ability to obstruct the world economy for several years, to obstruct international travel, international trade and to pose a danger for every citizen in the countries where the virus can get a stronger foothold. Not to talk about the disaster that will follow when this virus spreads to very poor countries. If so it will probably not be possible to keep the virus out of the rest of the countries.

          • WHO? These the same clowns trying to sell us EAT-LANCET? All that kale must be causing brain shrinkage; or maybe it’s the CO2 . . .

          • Robert, why?

            Although this thought is interesting… As wind and solar are almost useless, due to their intermitancy, I bet those are essentially shut down now in favor of baseload production!

          • Regarding what China is doing, yes it is extreme. But I do not understand placing asymptomatic people who were exposed to people who tested positive in forced GROUP quarantine?? Thousands of beds 8n large rooms right next to each other. It sounds insane, it sounds like murder.

          • The hyper dynamic response makes me think the Chinese are not sharing some very dark secret (s). Yes it is a severe, devastating disease for about 15% infected. But there’s something else not evident in official press releases from China. Obviously the body count is MUCH higher than the official number. Absolutely no way the CCP is telling all they know regarding mortality.

        • “I don’t think there is any other country in the world that would have given such a powerful reaction in order to contain this massive outbreak of the virus.”

          They wouldn’t have needed to if they’d actually dealt with it when doctors first began warning about a new SARS-like virus, rather than telling those doctors to shut up about it. One of which doctors, of course, is now dead from the disease.

          Like the WHO, you’re praising China for taking actions that are only required because they screwed up so badly when it could have been stopped with far less effort if they weren’t an authoritarian dictatorship.

          • MarkG: “Like the WHO, you’re praising China for taking actions that are only required because they screwed up so badly when it could have been stopped with far less effort if they weren’t an authoritarian dictatorship”.

            WR: I already commented somewhere else (in my reply to Javier) that in Hubei authorities acted too late and in the beginning even reacted into the wrong direction. But from the moment the central authorities were starting to act they were far more decisive in what they did than I have seen elsewhere in the world or expect to see anywhere. Most governments in the world don’t know how to react at all and often in our democratic societies we would first like to have some long lasting discussion rounds about what to do. And we would need a majority of not-knowing people for decisions that couldn’t wait and directly had to be taken by people who know.

            We might be happy that it was China that discovered the huge problem they had and not another country. Would the Northeast of the US would have been contained if a comparable problem would have been there: a comparable virus that infected masses in a stadium or so? I can’t imagine that in Europe a comparable area of the Netherlands, Belgium and a part of Germany would decide to a massive containment just in one or two days.

            I am very impressed by the reaction of China. Too late but very strong and doing what should be done in their situation. And let’s not forget: at their expense and to our advantage as well.

          • Wim Röst February 15, 2020 at 5:27 pm
            ” And let’s not forget: at their expense and to our advantage as well.”

            Man that’s cold. LOC?

          • agreed, and then theres the countryside sellers who brought wild animals to markets and were back at home and not quarantined for some time..and no news about that except one small clip showing them using ag drones to spray some cars and streets somewhere unspecified.
            hell of a lot of people turned away or missed by ineffective tests to account for yet
            as well as the many thousands of possible contacts theyre still trying to track down.

            theres also the poor factory workers turned up for work one found to be ill and they got locked out..not a good look.

            there really will be a huge slowdown for them but also for anyone globally using Chinese made products or parts in their production
            car sales are at a low there…gee I wonder why that’d be?
            should be rather a glut of oil filled tankers floating somewhere offshore too?
            Aus unis are bitching as we now rely on os students to keep their luxury campuses and professors etc in jobs, tourism mobs are also moaning
            bit of a wakeup call to NOT rely on OS to the degree we have and to get our own manufacturing back or start some new manufacturing.
            not before time.

      • Well said. It’s hard to believe for those that are nowhere near China however, with the explanation from those willing to observe with an open mind we can bring awareness where there once was ignorance.

      • about that nightmare ….

        Japanese Couple Tests Positive for Virus After Hawaii Visit

        A married Japanese couple in their 60s tested positive for the coronavirus after returning home from a Hawaiian vacation, health officials said Saturday, according to the New York Times.

        The couple had returned to Nagoya, Japan’s fourth-largest city, on Feb. 7, and a day later he visited a hospital with a fever but was turned away. He was back after two days when he learned he had pneumonia, but he was then released. On Thursday, the man went by ambulance to a hospital.

        His wife checked into the hospital Friday with a fever. Both now have the virus.

        The Japanese man grew ill on the second week of his vacation while the couple was in a time-share in Honolulu, authorities said. Before that, the couple was in Maui, but showed no symptoms.

        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-15/japanese-couple-tests-positive-for-virus-after-hawaii-visit-nyt

    • Yup! South Africa lost 6% of its population in six weeks in Black October of 1918 (third worst affected country after India and Samoa). From a ship docking at Cape Town returning a Native(ie black African)Labour Corps retiirning from Europe., the virus was swiftly distributed across the country into rural areas via its modern railway system with the deaths disproportionately among the poor. Addis Ababa airport was built by China as Africa’s transit hub as part of its belt and road initiative across the continent using Chinese management and labour. Flights from China into AA and thence to practically every African country, Europe and the Middle East continue to service these projects. I don’t think I’m gullible to be alarmed. Especially when so much of the continent’s people are poor, undernourished and living in overcrowded conditions with limited access to clean water. I remember 6% in 6 weeks, that’s not enough time to get out of the starting blocks.

      • one worker from China with it got into saudi I gather
        theres a LOT of Chinese owned biz and using chinese workers in Africa
        were not hearing about them? but theyd be from all over china inc the affected areas surely?
        fairly self contained but not entirely so

    • Xi is DEMANDING nations restart air travel and normal flight schedule

      This is utterly crazy.

      Is he trying to bring down the world with him?

      No way this has topped out in China or the world.

      There are a million Chinese living in Africa. Thousands must have returned in the window prequarantine. I’m at a loss as to why there are barely a handful if cases logged even 4 weeks into this plague. I certainly hope it’s not lurking.

      • I guess they could make their demands, but how many would travel knowing they have 14 days in isolation when they get back?

  2. The WHO has been acting precisely like characters from a pandemic movie, telling countries NOT to take effective action to protect themselves from carriers. Just as always happens in pandemic-apocalypse movies, where too little action is taken too late and everyone dies.

    Now, that’s not likely to happen here; worst-case we’re likely to see a few million dead. But, if this flu *was* to suddenly mutate into some kind of zombie-virus, the end of the world would all be the WHO’s fault for opposing international quarantine, just like in the movies.

    I have far more faith in national organizations like the CDC than anything with ‘World’ in its name. Because ‘World’ organizations don’t care about nations.

    • Mark,

      “The WHO has been acting precisely like characters from a pandemic movie, telling countries NOT to take effective action to protect themselves from carriers.”

      I see you’re not reading the material from the WHO.

      “Now, that’s not likely to happen here; worst-case we’re likely to see a few million dead.”

      Yep, you’re reading stuff from doomster central. Which is exactly the point of this post. I ran a series of posts about Ebola – got scores of similar comments are the inevitable millions dead in the US. I ran a series about Avian Flu – got scores of similar comments about the inevitable millions dead in the US.

      This is exactly what we’re seeing with climate change – in the Extinction Rebellion and such. People lap up misinformation and give confident predictions of doom. Amazing to see it here at WUWT.

      • The WHO has been working tirelessly to convince countries not to quarantine themselves. They kept saying that until those countries decided to ignore them and start doing so anyway.

        It’s what they do whenever there’s a potential for a pandemic: ‘no, no, no, whatever you do, don’t stop people from moving around carrying the disease.’

        As for ‘doomster’, if this flu gets established in other countries, we’re pretty much certain to see millions dead if it’s anywhere near as lethal as it is in China. There’s simply no question about that, it’s simple maths based on what we’re seeing in China.

        And if it does get established, it will be because the WHO have done their best to ensure it spreads.

        As for “No coronavirus cases have been reported in new nations since February 4,” we have no idea whether that’s true, because few people are being tested. It may well be already establishing itself in other countries and we won’t know until enough people start dying from it.

        • Mark,

          I don’t know where you’re getting your info. It’s not from WHO. I suggest you go network with your cousins in the Extinction Rebellion, since you think exactly like them.

          As with the ER people, I doubt there is anything to be gained from discussing it with you. If these 2000 words had no effect on you, a few more won’t. Esp as you’ve not given any evidence of reading the post, let alone disagreeing with anything in it. Time will tell.

          “As for ‘doomster’, if this flu gets established in other countries, we’re pretty much certain to see millions dead if it’s anywhere near as lethal as it is in China.’

          There are too many things wrong with that to bother with.

          • I’ve been following this since before it really hit the mainstream media, and never expected it to get this big or grow this fast. And I also followed the previous Ebola breakout, where the WHO were constantly telling countries not to close their borders to potential Ebola carriers.

            And, just the other day, the head of the WHO was praising Cambodia for letting a cruise ship disembark there and having the Prime Minister shake the hand of the people as they disembarked, calling it a great gesture of ‘international solidarity’.

            Now it turns out at least one of the passengers who’s arrived in their home country has the virus. Based on the large number of infections on the cruise ship off Japan, there could be many more out there, spreading it in Cambodia and all over the world.

            Thanks, WHO. More concerned about ‘international solidarity’ than people’s lives.

          • Larry – there was a problem with WHO initially.
            https://www.popsci.com/story/health/travel-ban-united-states-china-coronavirus/
            “WHO doesn’t recommend limiting trade and movement,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said. “Travel restrictions can cause more harm than good by hindering info-sharing and medical supply chains, and harming economies. We urge countries and companies to make evidence-based, consistent decisions.”
            That was after the US and I think some others had started restricting travel.
            WHO are doing much better now, but MarkG’s statements are certainly correct if used with a past tense. When this is all over, WHO’s initial reaction needs to be worked over to see if there was a systemic weakness in their operation (I think there could have been).

          • It is true, WHO intially downplayed this. It is also true that President Trump was criticised for travel restrictions.
            Which is crazy in light of China placing a quarantine on hundreds of millions. It is China’s actions and the many leaked videos that indicate a very serious virus.

            I consider all ( high and low) RO estimates and fatality estimates to be FUBAR, as they depend on China’s numbers which do not reflect their actions or the leaked reports and videos from China.

            Are we out of the woods yet. Hard to say, as this had progressed for longer in China when we first heard about it there, then it has in most nations now. The US has had four doublings in about three or four weeks? ( One to 17) The disease has a potentially long incubation without symptoms. Apparently there are many false negatives, and many cases in China with serious or fatal results that never received a Coronavirus diagnosis. On the positive side, for many reasons it is likely that the RO will be higher in China then it will be in many others nations.

            As it is very likely China is not being honest about their numbers, ( for good and bad reasons) other nations most threatened by this virus, seeing the economic disaster in China, have powerful reasons to not be forthcoming in their numbers.

            So we will see.

            Oh, I would not blame the local Providence for a slow response. For all we know they were just following higher up instructions. I certainly would not bet on what may well be scapegoating.

          • have a look at the death rates and overcrowded hospital in Aus last yr.
            were pretty well equipped and have a fairly healthy general population.
            but the VicB strain with an un named A strain and H1N1 all rolled up sure knocked the hell outta us
            the vaccine was close to useless even though it did have H1N1 in the second batch(the first one I simply couldnt FIND info on at all)
            that flu is hitting you in america now, and your vax is as crappy as ours was I gather, vaccinated people getting crook and kids dying as well.
            like the COV its the pnumonia thats coming with it thats killing
            get the pnuemonia vax BY ITSELF as getting the flu and pnumovax together weakens the protection factor
            and thats fROM the vaccine makers in USA
            in Aus they pushed both at the same time(saving doc visits medicare) against advice.
            backfired it seems.

          • Like MarkG, I’ve been following this before it hit the LameStream Media and man has it ever exploded!!! To know that the WHO is on top of things along with the CDC scares the hell out of me. Why? Because the virus was starting in December and NOT ONE WORD about it from China until December 30 – the Chinese admitted they knew this was a “novel virus back in December but HID this from the world until they couldn’t because one Optometrist discovered that nothing was being done and people were starting to die. Sadly, even this guy died after being arrested for spreading lies. Another citizen journalist has been disappeared by the Chinese government because he’s not saying what they are telling the world through their propaganda machines.

            Things are horrible in China and all because the WHO, China, and even the morons at the CDC are hiding this man-made plague from the world. Why would a strand of HIV DNA be in this virus unless it was placed there? The researchers say that this particular strain of DNA allows the virus to attack and enter the human body easier.

            Anyone want to refute this?

            Just like the Ebola cases where the WHO and the CDC were asking us to not get hysterical because it was really really hard to catch – no it isn’t – 98% mortality rate is not one that I would want to take the chance of getting.

            What is the mortality rate of this virus? No one is saying, but I bet it climbs into the 85 to 90% range before this ends.

            Now, suddenly China, the WHO are all working so hard to keep it out of other countries. Sure they are – 5 million escaped the epicenter before they shut down their borders, flights, the city

        • “As for “No coronavirus cases have been reported in new nations since February 4,” we have no idea whether that’s true, because few people are being tested. It may well be already establishing itself in other countries and we won’t know until enough people start dying from it.”

          They really can only report on that which has happened and has been reported, so it probably is true. They could make up a report about what “may” be happening or what they fear is happening but that would be pretty pointless wouldnt it? we have places like zerohedge for that.

          • No cases reported in Indonesia – I cannot believe it has not gone there with the level of air travel between Indonesia and China. Is this a potential major issue?

          • Really want to know how China is handling the outbreak – watch that B rated movie, Contagion. It looks like they are following the plot to this movie and they want other nations to do the same.

      • “This is exactly what we’re seeing with climate change – in the Extinction Rebellion and such. People lap up misinformation and give confident predictions of doom. Amazing to see it here at WUWT.”

        No, it’s the opposite of what we’re seeing with Climate Change alarmism.

        All the “official” climate-related authorities are telling us to panic. All the “official” health-related authorities are telling us everything is awesome!

        It’s hardly surprising that seasoned sceptcis are assuming the authorities are hiding something.

        We’ll know in the next few weeks.

      • Sal Minella: “didn’t kill millions and this one won’t either’

        WR: Perhaps you’d better first inform yourself about how this virus spreads: infecting other people even before the person who is infecting them knows himself that he/she is sick. There was only one person visiting the cruise ship that is now stalled in Japan. That person was not feeling ill at the time of his visit. Now there are more than 200 people infected – in a very short time.

        • That’s exactly how I would develop a bio warfare weapon. An entire army can be stricken before the first symptoms appear.

          • …I can’t shake that thought either Tom

            and China has never reacted anything like this for the flu

            and then there’s that magic word……China…we don’t really know what’s going on

        • Many diseases are contagious during the incubation period possibly including SARS, MERS, and Ebola. What’s your point?

          • Sal Minella: “Many diseases are contagious during the incubation period possibly including SARS, MERS, and Ebola. What’s your point?”

            WR: That this virus has more the potention to kill millions than the other viruses you mention. Please read twice before you repeat what you’ve already said.

      • What could kill millions in a short time would be a collapse of the power grid, especially in winter. Maybe they could close more coal-fired power plants.

      • Sal Minella – I hope you are right, but it looks like your (absent) reasoning) is not. The more that countries take the threat seriously and impose travel restrictions and put resources into containing and combating the virus, the more likely you are to be right. The more successful they are – ie. the more right you are – the less likely we are to know whether their actions were justified. Welcome to a wicked problem.

    • Wim,

      Exactly. The world’s public health agencies learned a lot from Ebola and SARS – and developed improved protocols and vastly better communication and coordination. Four years after that post we see the results! The response to coronavirus has been largely automatic rather than ad lib, following procedures prepared in calmer days. If we avoid a 1918-scale event, that will be one of the reasons why.

      This is similar to the response of America’s first responder agencies to 9/11. They now have better drills, training, national communications, and protocols.

      I’ll bet that they learn much from the coronavirus epidemic, and do better the next time (there will be a next time).

      Also, each pandemic builds the case for better funding – usually the limiting factor in these responses. They fight an epidemic with the infrastructure built during the calms days. Politicans panicked offers of vast money during the epidemic help, but not as much as preparing before one hits.

      • Great article Larry. Thank you mate. Too much willing hysteria.

        This article is good too:

        https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/02/10/china-epidemic-cases-with-no-coronavirus-what/

        This article.

        “Standard medical texts will tell you that viruses, bacteria, and fungi can cause pneumonia. Add to that, heavily polluted toxic air (as in Wuhan and other Chinese cities). Add in extreme malnutrition. YOU DON’T NEED A CORONAVIRUS TO EXPLAIN CASES OF PNEUMONIA IN CHINA.

        All right. So how many deaths from pneumonia occurred in China well before the “appearance of the coronavirus?”

        Estimates vary. Here is one, based on an analysis of studies: 2.8 million to 17 million deaths per year. Source: “Pneumonia Incidence and Mortality in Mainland China: Systematic Review of Chinese and English Literature, 1985-2008”(PLoS one, 2010).

        Notice the dates—1985-2008, long before the supposed coronavirus showed up. Before 5G technology, before a biowar research lab ramped up in Wuhan.

        2.8 million to 17 million deaths. No need for a mysterious virus.

        The wide variance in these death numbers is the result of trying to integrate Chinese language and English language studies, the huge expanse of territory in China, the huge population, and possible attempts, within China, to conceal true statistics.”

        https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0011721

        “Global epidemics solely based on germ-pronouncements, without environmental investigations (contaminated water supplies, open sewage, hunger, starvation, poverty, toxic chemicals, etc.), are industries. *They’re businessventures. They’re operations launched to control populations and force them to take vaccines. *They’re launched and sustained by professional liars, who’ve refined the old skills of snake oil salesmen through the use of “science,” in order to hypnotize the unwary.* And when the *vaccine of the moment*—as in the Swine Flu epidemic duds of 1976 and 2009— *turns out to be quite damaging, the snake oil pros say, “Well, every vaccine can cause rare problems, but all in all, they curb pandemics. We must inject them.””*

        (Rescued from spam bin) SUNMOD

  3. Egypt added as a newly infected nation.
    “• Egypt reported its first confirmed case of COVID-19. This is the second country
    in the WHO EMRO region to confirm a case, and the first reported case from
    the African continent.” WHO Situation Report 26 Feb 15
    “https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200215-sitrep-26-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=a4cc6787_2
    685 cases outside China up from 505.
    Johns Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 Map
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    • David,

      I had already added that as a comment upthread – and added it to the original post.

      Two additional details to your comment.

      (1) Egypt’s public health systems appear to have responded quickly and effectively. As mentioned in this post, infections spreading from less developed nations is a major worry of WHO – and helping to prevent that is one of their major programs. Details about Egypt’s response here.

      https://www.facebook.com/352015718468937/posts/1097988220538346/

      (2) This is the first new nation affected since February 4. Which is impressive. Every day they can prevent its spread allows the construction of better screening and treatment mechanisms – and brings closer the day when one of more effective drugs for treatment is proven.

      • I can’t believe it isn’t in other African countries. Infectious before symtoms, airborne and it didn’t come from the seafood market. The Level 4 lab is less than 300 meters away!
        The Chinese Communist Party believes in one thing- Self preservation!
        Worse than Democrats. You think they’re being open and honest?
        They’re pathologically unable!

  4. Lack of faith in institutions has been pretty much justified by the sh1t they’ve been selling us. Mentioning IPCC and WHO in the same sentence pretty much sums it up.

    • Cube,

      “Mentioning IPCC and WHO in the same sentence pretty much sums it up.”

      Do you have any evidence, or are you just making stuff up?

      So many of the comments here are exactly like that on climate activists’ websites. It’s eerie.

      • “So many of the comments here are exactly like that on climate activists’ websites. It’s eerie.”

        yup, there is a reason for that.

        • To compare this; reasonable concern about a new virus that has caused a nation of 1.4 billion to put about one third of their population in quarantine and shut down the production Capitol of the world ( good or bad, it is what is) to the CAGW alarminism over an essential trace gas that immensely supports life, is extremely poor judgement.

          Yet from your relentless juvenile comments Mr Mosher, it us not surprising that you would support such an analogy.

      • “So many of the comments here are exactly like that on climate activists’ websites. It’s eerie.”

        of course…because it’s China…that lies, hides, and fabricates everything…
        …just like climate scientists

  5. Africa is a conundrum for me.

    AIDS has raised death rates and lowered life expectancy among adults between the ages of 20 and 49 by about twenty years. Furthermore, the life expectancy in many parts of Africa is declining, largely as a result of the HIV/AIDS epidemic with life-expectancy in some countries reaching as low as thirty-four years. link

    AIDS is still kicking Africa’s ass hard. link You’d think a weakened population would be an easy victim for every other epidemic going. That doesn’t seem to be the case though. WUWT?

    • Sadly it is because we don’t need a new super-virus to kill us all.
      If you have an immuno-system deficiency syndrome then every cold and cut skin outdoors or bad bread will kill you.
      Worst case, this new virus kills 1 in 40 of those who get it. That’s already all those who have weak immune systems from old age, AIDS or drugs.
      Death is not a rare condition that shows up easily in the statistics.

      • What I understood from googling is that children < 18 mo. may still have antibodies that passed to them through the placenta. That complicates the diagnosis and is one of the factors giving rise to "presumptive diagnosis". link Did I get that right?

        The implications aren’t obvious to me. If I understand correctly, AIDS in young children has been under diagnosed. yes/no?

        • A presumptive diagnosis is when you diagnose a disease without verifying the causative agent is present in the patient. Years ago in Africa (in the US also in some cases) they did presumptive diagnoses because HIV tests weren’t available and/or too expensive. So they diagnosed AIDS if a person had certain diseases, like TB, without verifying they had antibodies to HIV. So, naturally, AIDS incidence increased. I’ve casually read that they still do that, and also that they do HIV antibody testing; but actually, I’m not sure what they do now; I haven’t closely followed it for years.

          Nevertheless, even if they do testing, the tests are notorious for false positives. At least that’s the way it used to be. So things like malaria, which is endemic to Africa, could trigger a positive HIV test. Maybe the tests are better now, Dunno because I just don’t care anymore.

    • CommieB

      Consider that during the SARS outbreak no one with AIDS in the appointed Hong Kong hospital died of SARS even though they were housed on the same (top) floor of the hospital on opposite sides of the nurse’s station. The staff got infected and died, but not the AIDS patients. The reason was they could not mount a strong immune response. Those who could, had their lungs quickly fill with fluid and their breathing suffered from an immune over-reaction at the gas exchange cell level. People died from their over-reaction, as in 1918.

      A weakened immune system (lowered by drugs) saved people in Canada when SARS broke out. It gave the body time to adapt and defeat the virus.

      Many people with HIV do not show symptoms of AIDS due to good management. We have no idea what will happen when millions of HIV+ people are co-infected with CoV-19. Super bug or super resistant, maybe.

        • Globally, it’s 340 to 1,000 million cars every year.

          Even at a (dubious) 100x fatality rate, your projected no of deaths is the same as the normal annual rate. Panic over.

        • COVID-19 has a lethality of 18% from simple figures. Too simple.

          These figures are deaths as a percentage of people who were known to have the virus when it was caught by the deceased; 18%.

          But most people who get the disease don’t bother the doctors. It’s just a flu. Most just fought it off.

          In China (where the case are) it is estimated that 1% of infected people die. Still worse then normal flu. Not by a lot, yet by a bit.

          Elsewhere on this thread it is observed that this would be worse in sub-Saharan Africa where AIDS is prevalent. This is correct. We should act to stop the spread.
          But don’t panic.

        • Who says? (and I don’t mean WHO) At the minimum, please cite your source. Better yet, cite the source of your source.

          CDC says your numbers of flu deaths are about right. But my sense is that nobody in the West knows the mortality rate for this new Corona virus. WHO, and thus CDC, are getting their data from officials in China. Official Chines sources are citing as of today, 8 am Beijing time, 66,580 confirmed cases and 1,524 dead.

          https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2020/01/22/coronavirus-count-in-beijing

          The WHO’s current Director-General, Dr. Tedros Ghebreyesus, met on Jan 28 with Xi Jinping to negotiate an “agreement” with the Chinese to share data and “send a team of international experts led by the WHO” to China.” It took two more weeks – until last Monday – for China to give the go-ahead to WHO’s “advance team” to meet with Chinese officials in Beijing to prepare for the joint mission to begin. (WSJ, Feb. 13). To my knowledge, no other “official” Western disease epidemiologists have been allowed to do any on-the-ground studies or reports from the disease epicenter – at least none using other than sanctioned government data. Please correct me if I’m wrong.

          Using the numbers above, mortality rates are around 2.2 – 2.3%. Huge, but not 10%. My daughter returns to her teaching job in Beijing in several weeks, and only after all the governments are in compliance; until and even after her return, she’ll likely be deliver class content online. Evacuated in the last United flight out of Beijing, she commented that it appears the massive quaranining of Chinese citizens seems overdone.

          WUWT has set a fact-based, non-alarmist example in discussing climate change. Unless people have specific, reliable sources worth citing, my suggestion is to follow the same example wrt to this epidemic. Cool it.

          • It’s wrong to compare confirmed cases with deaths and get a mortality rate as long as the outbreak is ongoing. Right now you will only know the figure can not be lower than 2.2% even if all confirmed cases will be recovered, which they obvious will not be without a miracle.

            You have to compare deaths so far with the confirmed cases at the time last death’s was confirmed in average. Or to put it in another way. Find out the average time from a confirmed case until death occur and do the same for time to a confirmed recovery. Then we can make a much better assessment. Today that figure is way higher than 2% but not as high as if you just use resolved cases, death or recovery. (Currently at about 15%).

            Todays best guess would be 5-9 %

          • WRT:

            You have to compare deaths so far with the confirmed cases at the time last death’s was confirmed in average. Or to put it in another way. Find out the average time from a confirmed case until death occur and do the same for time to a confirmed recovery.

            We know the case numbers and mortality figures outside of Asia, and they are not extraordinary. We might be well-advised to concentrate on lowering the global death toll from measles, malaria, aids, tuberculosis, amoebic dysentery… all of which are preventable diseases.

            I don’t think we can debate whether China is a black hole for information. I have to believe that they are improving. They need a new leader who encourages a free press – like ours, here in the U.S….

    • David,

      Yes, this is evolving just like the Climate Emergency into the Extinction Rebellion. Experts go for their 15 minutes of fame by making bold predictions. Modelers tell us about our horrible future – with BIG BIG Big margins so that they’ll be right for any outcome.

      Have you moved to the top of a mountain – cause when Antarctica melts any day now you’ll be isolated from the plague and the rising seas! A twofer!

  6. Larry focuses his comment on all the CoViD19 fake news past 6 weeks. Unsurprising, since ‘if it bleeds, it leads’. What is disappointing in 2020 is that the MSM aren’t tempering their reporting with ‘objective’ and readily information from reasonably trustworthy sources like CDC and WHO. Destoying what is left of their shredded credibility on what ought be an apolitical topic.

    My two previous longish scientific comments here on ‘Wuhan’, now formally named CoViD19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019), show how rapidly accurate information about it has gelled in this modern information exchange era. From near nothing to a reasonably full clinical picture, a new method of clinical diagnosis, the necessity of quarantine because of a now certain asymptomatic Rnaught significantly greater than 1, and a classic clinical trial of remdesivir drug therapy—all in about 4 weeks. Makes SARS in 2003 and Swine flu in 2009 look like ancient ‘horse and buggy’ history.

    • Every single person who has relayed scary predictions, when asked, tells me they read it on Facebook. Truly, social media is the bane of truth.

    • Rud,

      Well said. I agree on all points! Your posts show that the truth is out there, for those who make the effort to look.

      The biggest misrepresentation in the media is to describe the raging epidemic in China as a global event. It might become that, but so far it is not. And every passing day gives time to improve the world’s defenses.

      • Larry, TY. Your posts on pandemics have been a voice of reason. I went thru 4 months of Board demanded hell when my own topical persistent antimicrobial was possibly on call in 2009. Despite flu basics, they wanted me to drive a scientifically impossible economic advantage. Cause of their stock options, not reality. Taught me a deep lesson, since me and my family, not them and theirs, were the biggest cash investors.

      • Great article Larry. Thank you mate. Too much willing hysteria.

        This article is good too:

        https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/02/10/china-epidemic-cases-with-no-coronavirus-what/

        This article.

        “Standard medical texts will tell you that viruses, bacteria, and fungi can cause pneumonia. Add to that, heavily polluted toxic air (as in Wuhan and other Chinese cities). Add in extreme malnutrition. YOU DON’T NEED A CORONAVIRUS TO EXPLAIN CASES OF PNEUMONIA IN CHINA.

        All right. So how many deaths from pneumonia occurred in China well before the “appearance of the coronavirus?”

        Estimates vary. Here is one, based on an analysis of studies: 2.8 million to 17 million deaths per year. Source: “Pneumonia Incidence and Mortality in Mainland China: Systematic Review of Chinese and English Literature, 1985-2008”(PLoS one, 2010).

        Notice the dates—1985-2008, long before the supposed coronavirus showed up. Before 5G technology, before a biowar research lab ramped up in Wuhan.

        2.8 million to 17 million deaths. No need for a mysterious virus.

        The wide variance in these death numbers is the result of trying to integrate Chinese language and English language studies, the huge expanse of territory in China, the huge population, and possible attempts, within China, to conceal true statistics.”

        https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0011721

        “Global epidemics solely based on germ-pronouncements, without environmental investigations (contaminated water supplies, open sewage, hunger, starvation, poverty, toxic chemicals, etc.), are industries. *They’re businessventures. They’re operations launched to control populations and force them to take vaccines. *They’re launched and sustained by professional liars, who’ve refined the old skills of snake oil salesmen through the use of “science,” in order to hypnotize the unwary.* And when the *vaccine of the moment*—as in the Swine Flu epidemic duds of 1976 and 2009— *turns out to be quite damaging, the snake oil pros say, “Well, every vaccine can cause rare problems, but all in all, they curb pandemics. We must inject them.””*

    • @Rud

      “Larry focuses his comment on all the CoViD19 fake news past 6 weeks. Unsurprising, since ‘if it bleeds, it leads’. What is disappointing in 2020 is that the MSM aren’t tempering their reporting with ‘objective’ and readily information from reasonably trustworthy sources like CDC and WHO. Destoying what is left of their shredded credibility on what ought be an apolitical topic.”

      Larry’s examples of fake news came from a single source, ZeroHedge. Then the two of you pretend ZeroHedge represents the entire MSM.

      You don’t think the “majors” have included the CDC or WHO in their reporting? Give me a break..

    • Yet when Larry says, “Have you moved to the top of a mountain – cause when Antarctica melts any day now you’ll be isolated from the plague and the rising seas! A twofer!”. it is, IMV, a very poor analogy.

      Whereas just about exactly zero people have been killed or hospitalized by anthropogenic SLR, this virus has very rapidly killed far more then SARS or MERS, and has a manifesting R-naught in China that is worthy of great concern. Additionally Chinese reaction to this virus is extreme and a real threat to their economy and to the global economy; and the videos leaking out of China, people lined up for blocks trying to get medical aid, people dying in those lines, reports from Doctors in China of 10 plus day hospitalization requirements for 20 percent of the infected, which overwhelms the medical system,
      reports of many dying of this virus never getting added to the infected numbers, reports of many just going home to die, etc, are all real events with exactly zero real world correlation to results of anthropogenic SLR.

      Therefore it is my perspective that if you wish to make a case that the world has greatly increased its ability to respond to viral epidemics, and that there is no reason to panic, and much of what is published is click bate for readership, then it us best to use less insulting and very inaccurate analogies.

  7. WHO has denied admittance for three years running to Taiwan. That tells you almost all you need to know about who owns WHO. As you poke around and look at videos note those videos that have the WHO blue logo below the video window have been demonized and most probably pushed down in search engines like Google. Makes one wonder who owns Google?

  8. It’s difficult for Americans to imagine the sanitation conditions in China. Last time I was in Kunming, I went into a little retail store. The workers lived in the rear of the shop, in a living space of maybe 200 square feet. There was a city sewer vent opening into their living space.

    Another time we visited an open air food market in Guangzhou. There were cats sitting on top of the bags of food.

    Western civilization owes a lot to the old book of Leviticus, where people are taught to put a difference between clean and unclean. It’s not surprising to me that strange new diseases emerge where that kind of culture has never flourished.

    • Bro,

      I hear much the same from the people I know who spend a lot of time in China.

      Also, its government looks omnipotent to those reading the NY Times, but its a typical less-developed nation’s ramshackle machinery. It takes a long time to build a developed state.

      It is a miracle that China’s government has been able to respond as well as it has. But they are behind the epidemic, and likely to remain there. Contrast that with the rest of the world, which so has erected defenses before being severely hit.

      Time will tell how all this plays out.

      I’ll be writing a comparison of public health agencies and coronavirus with climate agencies and Climate Change. One has been careful to stress how little they know and uncertainties, no big claims – no attacks and smears on those who disagree (of course there is disagreement about how to procede). The other has exaggerated their confidence and waged personal war on experts who disagree.

      We’ll learn lots from this.

      • Larry: “I’ll be writing a comparison of public health agencies and coronavirus with climate agencies and Climate Change. One has been careful to stress how little they know and uncertainties, no big claims – no attacks and smears on those who disagree (of course there is disagreement about how to procede). The other has exaggerated their confidence and waged personal war on experts who disagree.”

        WR: Exactly. The UN has a long list of official goals that starts with:
        Goal 1: No Poverty
        Goal 2: Zero Hunger
        Goal 3: Good Health and Well-Being
        https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/

        But all we hear from the UN is about the virtual problem of a climate that possibly could have to be solved in the year 2100 plus that we have to spend trillions and trillions NOW on this imaginary problem. Why don’t we hear anybody about REAL problems that have to be solved? Why is the climate business dominating over all real problems where three quarter of the world population is struggling with? Why isn’t asked by anyone to spend trillions on beter sewers for everyone whereever in the world, favorable for their health and as we discover now for ours as well? Why is no one prepared for disasters like the one we are possibly facing now?

        Thirty, forty years ago we were discussing about how to solve real problems together. Right now the UN seems to be fully dominated by scare mongering and doom predicting agencies, only busy with promoting themselves, dominated by ‘Climate’ and “Environment’. At the expense of nearly everything, including the expectations the youngest generations have about their future.

        Shameful

    • I was amazed to be in singapore at night and have all the sewer vents pop open and degass as we were waking along..cant really be that healthy either?
      but everything else we saw was shiny and spotless for the tourists anyway

      oh and anyone NOT hearing from NK?
      huge trade and other buddies and borders with china but they say….they have NO cases??

  9. Critical Minerals
    The inevitable impact of the Coronavirus on the world’s rare earths supply.

    …If the coronavirus outbreak continues, we will soon learn a lot about the size of Chinese inventories providing, of course, that export from China does not also shut down (It is certainly slowing down). Rare earth enabled components for moving machinery, such as automobiles, trucks, trains, aircraft, industrial motors and generators, home appliances, and consumer goods, almost all today come from China or Japan (which of course gest its rare earth magnets, alloys, phosphors, and catalysts from China). That flow is now slowing. This will have a domino effect on American and European industry. These items cannot be re-sourced due to China’s monopoly of rare earths production and its monopsony of rare earth enabled component manufacturing.

    https://investorintel.com/sectors/technology-metals/technology-metals-intel/inevitable-impact-coronavirus-worlds-rare-earths-supply/

    • David,

      The economic impacts of this are outside the scope of this post (an already too long post), but could be large.

      But like epidemics, economic recessions and depressions are part of life. We have to prepare for them – and wisely manage them when they occur.

      The doomsters shrieking about the end times from coronavirus have their equivalents in economics, for whom downturns are worse than death. The climate doomsters borrow the worst characteristics from each. It’s worth wondering why all these groups are so successful.

    • David, the rare earth minerals thing is another China contrivance that will be undone somewhen. Australia has large ore reserves. Perhaps the biggest ore reserve is the Mountain Pass mine in California on the Nevada border. When China cut exports, Molycorp invested a few billion in Nee, environmentally sound Mountain Pass ore processing. Chinas plan. Then China opened the spigots and Molycorp went under.

      Rare earths are not rare. But the ore processing is environmentally ‘dirty’ with concentrated radiation. China wins by not caring. MAGA wins by reopening Mountain Pass and paying the environmental costs to remain strategically secure ‘forever’.

    • China also manufactures most of the drugs we use. Not quite a monopoly but close.

      Trump, in the past, has tried to get drug companies to move some of their supply chain back to the United States. Covid-19 will probably accelerate these kinds of moves.

      I heard a doctor this morning speculate that covid-19 may end up being the fifth flu virus circulating in the human population.

      • TA, not an unreasonable speculation, but unlikely. Could it remain in circulation? Yes, but only if it genetically attenuates virulence.
        It is Otherwise too virulent to remain circulating.
        The four Continuously circulating four viral caused human URI’s come in two classes: common colds (3), and influenza(1)— and flu continues to kill the most susceptible despite the hit or miss annual flu vaccine.

        CoVidD19 kills 1/10, period, like Sars or 1918 flu. It will either ‘burn out’, or attenuate.

        • Thanks for that clarification, Rud.

          What do you think about China dominating the drug supply-chain? And here they are at the center of a potential epidemic. I suppose China will get first dibs on the medicines.

    • WA miner Lynas is sending RE to Malaysia for processing again but still battling the greenpeas agitprop that the processed soilis super radiated. it got cleared to start up but ongoing dramas
      so theyre setting up processing plants IN WA as I write
      we have quite a lot of it apparently so supply wont be as scant as some think hopefully

      copper coal iron etc are going to take a dive to reduced demand recently and a slow restart

  10. I am a fan of both Mr. Kummer (Faubius Maximus) and Tyler Durden (Zerohedge). Both very smart. Both very bold. I generally take the label of ‘Fake News’ with a grain of salt. I can weed it out for myself thank you very much. I will say that Zerohedge has done a far better job of making available actual footage out of China…some of it simply chilling. I appreciate as well the cool head Mr. Kummer keeps in his corner. Thanks to both. Keep digging…I’ll keep reading…and deciding for myself.

    • Stacy,

      “I can weed it out for myself thank you very much”

      But many cannot do so. Of the economic misinformation I’ve found in comments during the past 17 years, a large fraction of it comes from Zerohedge.

      I could give lots of examples…

      • Larry, I am honored that you took the time. I have only been reading Zerohedge for about a year. Their style and yours couldn’t be more different. What I can say for sure is that Mr. Durden has a talent for finding the sweet spot of sensationalism in a story. I don’t mind that if the story is interesting. What I appreciate about your work on the other hand is the disciplined and philosophical approach you take to your subject. It’s hard nosed and mentally tough. Your ability to take a wide angle…to step back and give a broad perspective is refreshing. The difference is like the contrast of a hard boiled gumshoe looking for a scoop, vs. a seasoned philosopher hoping to be instructive…(you being the latter). Keep up the great work sir.

        • “What I can say for sure is that Mr. Durden has a talent for finding the sweet spot of sensationalism in a story.”

          I have it figured out now, Larry, you are reading too much Zerohedge. 🙂

    • Stacy, Tyler Durden is a catch all moniker for a series of authors at ZH(knowns THE Tylers;-)
      they tend to collate items more recently ,than self author. Im noticing as a long term reader starting when they were more financial based items and less Gen Interest news.

      • Thank you Oz. That is very good to know. lol…though I admit I feel a bit like the music promotor in the song asking…”which one’s Pink??”

  11. Like with Climate Change, there are those who blow this entire thing out of proportion. Have thousands died from Coronavirus? Yes. BUT – the CDC estimates that between 24000 and 61000 persons die every year from Influenza and nobody seems to care. Many more people die from conditions they have influence over such as heart disease and diabetes and we have gotten used to it. This is new and as its a new, albeit so far small killer, it scares the shit out of us. Shall we be careless now? Sure not – we should apply proper care but we should also not panic. Humanity will learn to live with this virus – as we have adapted to many others. And we will also adapt to natural Climate Change as we have done since the dawn of time.

    • Our German RKI estimates that 25000 die from influenza. However the real reported cases are 1120 for the last season, and 1665 for the season before. And both were above average. Their estimates are based on the winter excess mortality and very probably blown out of proportion.

    • Rudolf Huber: “but we should also not panic”.

      WR: No, of course we should not panic. Let us look at the facts and lut us do what has to be done. But the Spanish flu counted 20 to 50 million deaths, a number that is a bit different from the numbers you are mentioning. That the Spanish Flu happened at the end of World War One when the world already was a mess has kept this disaster out of the memory of most of us. But in our present ‘all connected world’ a comparable threat is really devastating and potentially it can affect the lives of all of us.

      We are not prepared for a pandemic. Larry warned about that years ago. Let’s not exaggerate but also let us look at the problem as it really is and at the problem that it could become even in case we are acting well. We need time to prepare, time during which the virus hopefully weakens or can be controlled. China shows that this is an immense task.

    • “the CDC estimates that between 24000 and 61000 persons die every year from Influenza”.
      I believe that is US only.

      IMV we are not far enough into this to begin to make such comparisons. China’s reaction thus far indicates this is far more severe ( for them at least) then a flu and far more deadly. ( 20 to 100 times more deadly). Although we know very little about flu epidemics in China.

  12. Chinese people are super fussy about food being FRESH! For fish you buy it alive and take it home, and often the sea creatures are still moving at the dinner table.

      • Wow, that is so wrong. China stopped having a lack of refrigeration and freezers long ago (I have been spending time in and traveling around China since 1998 and living here full time traveling extensively for over a decade). The preference for fish that is still alive at the point of purchase is cultural, as is the lack of desire to have ice in drinks due to traditional Chinese medicine practices. Drinking hot water is considered more healthy in northern China, but in southern China ice is much more common.

        Funny story, when I was visiting Zhuhai, I was at a restaurant and saw all the locals drinking either iced water or iced tea, so I ordered water with my meal. The waiter heard my Beijing accent and automatically brought me hot water. ARGH!

        And just now, in spite of asking 3 times for leng shui (cold water) at a McDs for my wife and having it confirmed that is what I asked for, I was brought hot water automatically. McDs most definitely has ice, but Beijingers don’t want it because they think they get less soda and want all they paid for!

        Me, my favorite fish is mackeral which this far inland is only sold frozen, anyway. My mother-in-law tolerates my ‘ecentricities’

  13. I agree with the article except in two points:

    1. The response by Hubei authorities was too slow. Strong quarantine measures should have been taken the moment the disease was identified as both serious and contagious. That was already clear by the end of December when that doctor warned his colleagues. I just hope it wasn’t too late cause the virus has not been contained yet.

    2. The response by WHO was too slow. It had information on the disease from December, yet it waited until Jan 30th to declare an international emergency. This was done to prevent antagonizing China.

    That’s why I signed the petition for WHO’s director to step down. Lives should be above political interests for WHO.

    So far the disease shows a good evolution. It grows more slowly almost every day and the number of cases has been growing by less than 10% / day for a week, and approaching less than 5%. Hopefully we should be able to put this scare behind as we did with SARS.

    • “Strong quarantine measures should have been taken the moment the disease was identified as both serious and contagious.”

      Without agreement or disagreement: where is the line drawn? What will be the litmus test for ‘imprisoning’ people? What about the “flu”? Is there not a slippery slope in the making?

      • Which flu? H1N5 definitely, a 1918-like flu definitely. Seasonal flu not. The difference is clear. If it is new, contagious and serious it must be stopped. If it is already endemic in the human population there is no point.

        There’s millions of lives at stake. Liberties aren’t worth anything if you are not alive to enjoy them.

    • Javier,

      I doubt you have the slightest knowledge of the factors involved in making those decisions.

      Epidemics are like wars. Everything is very simple, but the simplest things are very difficult (Clausewitz) Success is making few massive mistakes and executing OK. Like war, epidemics are waged accompanied by people knowing nothing – but criticizing from hindsight.

      • You are entitled to your doubts, but given the progression of a highly infectious disease, a single day of delay might mean hundreds of deaths and thousands of seriously ill people. It could even mean the difference between stopping the disease or not.

        Where is the precautionary principle when we need it? Strong measures can be ameliorated or lifted if exaggerated, but the damage inflicted by not taking them cannot be undone.

        • If the WHO had declared an emergency one day earlier, they probably would have been criticised. It’s very hard to get it right.

          The reality is that claiming an emergency needs to be judicious. If you make claims for everything, you will be ignored when something serious happens. Crying “wolf!” and all.

          When you are in a similar position with similar responsibilities, I’ll start listening.

    • Javier: “1. The response by Hubei authorities was too slow.

      WR: Communist party leaders in Hubei now are dismissed. They really acted too slow if not opposite to what they should have done, perhaps because they did not understand the bad potential of this virus or because it was just business as usual to downplay some unrest somewhere. This initially caused a huge growth of the effects of the virus.

      I also had some problems with the WHO acting in my eyes a bit weak. But I agree with Larry that their position is not easy. As we all know the UN is fully dominated by groups that prefer to create problems themselves or exaggerate them in an unreasonable way: climate and environment. Pushing aside all real problems where people and countries all over the world are wrestling with.

    • “1. The response by Hubei authorities was too slow. Strong quarantine measures should have been taken the moment the disease was identified as both serious and contagious. That was already clear by the end of December when that doctor warned his colleagues. I just hope it wasn’t too late cause the virus has not been contained yet.”

      Li was an opmathologist. he told some fellow doctors on Dec 30th in his wechat group

      The Disease was reported dec 31st to WHO . 27 cases.
      No evidence of human to human at that time.
      On the 31st, this was announced in Wuhan
      http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2019123108989

      11 days later
      http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020011109036

        • The virus wasnt sequenced until later. So early numbers will
          of course be low. You can also see how the numbers jumped when they added clinically
          diagnosed cases.

          of course the early reports are going to be biased low.

          1. There are a high number of cases where people just get ill and get better.
          UNREPORTABLE
          2. before a Positive Lab test, there are Going to be cases that are not counted.
          3. When you change the test from lab to lab + clinical, the numbers will also shoot up.
          4. Modelling told you it was likely higher. Models beat data once again.

          • Observations on the ground plus almost 10 percent of the planet in quarrantine told me it was and is far worse in China then the official numbers.

            While your 4 points are true you ignore the reports of
            a great shortage of tests, overwhelmed hospitals only taking a fractions of the severe cases, as well as China’s extreme but belated response, and a high percentage of false negatives. You also ignore China’s history of false official stats, and you ignore the obvious motivations for any nation to be less then forthcoming about a deadly virus.

            Neither you or I know the RO in China, or the death rate, but there are many reasons to consider it very bad. It is to early to tell what it will be in the ROW.

          • “While your 4 points are true you ignore the reports of
            a great shortage of tests, overwhelmed hospitals only taking a fractions of the severe cases, as well as China’s extreme but belated response, and a high percentage of false negatives.”

            Sorry I didnt cover the shortage of test kits. its implied in the shift to clinical diagnosis.

            I don’t think the response was extreme or belated. 27 cases at the end of december.
            I knew and beat feet.

      • Li was an opmathologist.

        The more the reason. Even an ophtalmologist knew a new highly contagious disease was running amok in his city on December 30th.

        The Disease was reported dec 31st to WHO . 27 cases.
        No evidence of human to human at that time.

        No evidence made public. The first patient was admitted on Dec 1st, and a string of cases over December. From what we know about the virus, health workers at that hospital might have been developing symptoms from late December. Already January the 21st several health workers were reported to have been infected. Surely they did not all fall ill the day before.

        However quarantine measures were not announced until January 23rd, almost two months after the disease started. Clearly Wuhan could have been quarantined in early January saving perhaps thousands of lives. In late January the disease was growing at 30 % new cases every day. Even a single day makes a difference.

        • “No evidence made public. The first patient was admitted on Dec 1st, and a string of cases over December. From what we know about the virus, health workers at that hospital might have been developing symptoms from late December. Already January the 21st several health workers were reported to have been infected. Surely they did not all fall ill the day before.”

          Huh, you didnt read the Wuhan announcement on the 31st or the notification of the WHO
          yes Jan 21 health care workers infected. mean incubation period is around 5-6 days

          • You always taking the wrong position in any issue as usual. Must be a knack.

            Xi had early knowledge of coronavirus severity, speech shows

            The Chinese leader issued orders on fighting the coronavirus on January 7, during a meeting of the country’s Politburo Standing Committee, almost two weeks before his first public comments on the deadly disease.

            Mayor of Wuhan admits delays in providing accurate information on the coronavirus outbreak

            He has been sacked because central government is not happy with his handling of the epidemic.

            Wuhan Mayor Admits: Five Million Left Before Virus Lockdown

            Zhou [Xiangwang] confirmed that the government indeed had information that should have triggered preventative public health measures earlier than his administration took them, lamenting the unsatisfactory government response to the outbreak.

            Amid Deadly Virus Outbreak, China Tried to Hold World’s Largest Banquet

            The outbreak of the Wuhan virus has become a major political problem for China’s dictator Xi Jinping as accusations of bureaucratic paralysis, reckless policies, and dangerous secrecy fly within China and around the world.

            On Thursday, the mayor of Wuhan noted that a huge banquet with over 130,000 guests was held on Sunday (January 19), days before the Chinese government suddenly reversed course and quarantined the city.

            Oh my God! A 130,000 people banquet to break a Guinness record in the middle of a lethal coronavirus outbreak in the same city. That’s madness.

            The Chinese know and admit they did a sloppy job and their reaction was too slow. However you think the opposite. You are strange.

          • There is a little bit more to the Chinese being incompetent – they knew this stuff was deadly, yet they went on as usual – just like they did with SARS and every other disease they let loose on the world stage.

            They hid this because it apparently came from one of their Level 4 labs because of it having the DNA strand of HIV that allows the virus to enter human beings easier. They didn’t want to admit that they were developing the Coronavirus (they either were given by researchers at the Ivy League school some Chinese double agents were pretending to be researchers at or it was stolen from the same school) to weaponize it.

            If they admitted that, what would the US say or do to them? I think the Chinese researchers using any viruses or bacteria would be removed from their posts and shipped back to China. But who knows because of the lame responses of the WHO and CDC. Their willingness to keep our borders open to anyone coming from China and insisting we not stop flights into and out of the epicenter is suspect. What are they attempting to do? Help China kill off much of the world’s vulnerable populations?

      • What we now know is chairman Xi know about this outbreak by mid December. It’s likely the local government was not fully informed and had no idea about the potential of this virus. However Beijing knew.

        Now we also know WHO tries to influence what’s in the news and on all social media platforms. We also know WHO chairman’s link to Beijing. We have all the reasons to be very cautious.

        One example. Yesterday there was one article in the guardian about one American woman from the cruise ship docked in Cambodia. She was stopped in Malaysia’s with fever on her way back to US. Later confirmed having corona virus. She was among at least one thousand going home to about 30 different countries ? CDC said to be trying tracking all of them including all possible encounters. Not far fetched to say this is getting out of hand. As of today, nothing more about this. Censored to avoid panic mode ?

        • Just read that the Chinese are using the same mouth thermometer to check people for fevers – this is literally nuts. How easy will it be to catch this virus using the same thermometer that someone who has the virus just got tested with?

          The Chinese government is also demanding that travel to China not be stopped while the WHO are finding people on cruise ships and planes with the virus attempting to enter the U.S. through various means. Oh, but don’t worry, those that have managed to get through into the U.S. are being quarantined and all the people (who really knows how many that is) are being closely watched by the CDC. Really? Wonder how that’s going to work out for us seeing they couldn’t even keep track of all the people who came into contact with Ebola patients in Africa?

  14. Well, at least the movie got off to a good start – killing off the Paltrow character . . . . she epitomizes the worst of modern ‘culture’.

  15. Hi

    Would love to belive you are right, even though all my senses are telling me this is a dangerous one. Have spent a few years in China, and know a little about how they do statistics. Let’s take dead in traffic, in our world we would count anyone who died instantly and later at the hospital. While in China, the one who died in hospital goes to another statistic. So what would be good to know is how many died of pneumonia or of unknown causes in China last three month’s. Another fact that is bothering me is that it took them so long to react to the virus. There is evidence that it started all the way back in November, as there where starting to be a case load early Desember, remember there is a long incubation time. Another worrisome detail is the CFR that keep’s returning to the 2,1% figure, and the fact that now that we know more about the timeline for the disease, why are we still using the “today figure” of cases to calculate fatality, when we should be using the case number from 1-2 weeks ago? There are many more red flag’s when it comes to this disease; like the crematorium’s, the NO2 releases (it’s gotten better but was over 1200 ppm for over a week in Wuhan and Chongqing at windy.com) and the very secretive and reluctant attitude of the Chinese government towards foreign help is also worrying. But I hope your right, but it won’t hurt to freshen up on your hand washing skills. Stay safe every one.

    • Finn,

      If you read this post, you would have seen its primary message – the situation in China is bad (we don’t know how bad) – but the defenses of the rest of the world are so far holding.

      Every day improves the containment systems (testing and screening), and buys time for development of better treatment protocols and drugs.

      Summary: this has been handled so far better than any previous global epidemic – by far. We don’t know what comes next, but the success so far improves our ability to handle whatever comes next.

    • “…the crematorium’s…” Yesterday I listened to a phone (or Skype audio) interview of a crematorium operator in Hubei. Overwhelmed with 120 bodies each day. Authorities say they want bodies processed in less than two hours. Impossible! Exhausted!

      Apparently, 60% of the dead do not come from hospitals. Thus, a guesstimate that the real body count from Covid19 is double the official figures appears roughly accurate.

  16. All the past over hyped pending”pandemics” were duds-SARS,swine flu,Ebola,Zika–
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9_H2VN5KBY
    In a months long CBS News investigation, state-by-state results of tests for H1N1 found that most cases were negative. The Wall Street Journal’s Alicia Mundy and Politico’s Fred Barbash spoke with Sharyl Attkisson about these startling findings.
    https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/02/10/the-bio-weapon-theory-of-the-china-epidemic/
    https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/02/13/people-dying-equals-coronavirus/
    https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/02/10/china-epidemic-cases-with-no-coronavirus-what/
    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/02/wuhan_revisited.html
    Wuhan has been a cauldron of toxic pollution for a long time. Zerohedge loves the excited headlines–read for entertainment purposes mostly .Maybe the people in Wuhan are locked down cus they caught the Hong Kong bug–the one that defies the Communist Central government.Cant take any one source as the last word–that includes WHO they hyped SARS as well

    • homer d February 15, 2020 at 3:06 pm

      “Maybe the people in Wuhan are locked down cus they caught the Hong Kong bug–the one that defies the Communist Central government”

      July 2019, police actually did crackdown on Wuhan protesters, who were protesting against the pollution there.

  17. From the article: “Americans today want exciting and scary news, not accurate news.”

    I don’t agree with that, Larry. It’s the news media that wants exciting and scary news. The People have no editorial control.

    The impression you leave is that Americans are clamoring for exciting and scary news, and it’s our fault if that’s all we get, but noone from the news media has every asked me what kind of news I want. Have they asked you? Have they asked anyone? Not that I can tell. The News Media doesn’t need anyone to tell them to publish exciting and scary news. They know all about hyperbole.

      • I guess it’s also obvious that this phenomenon is common to the developed nations, not confined to the US.

    • Tom,

      “The People have no editorial control.”

      Totally false. The people are customers, and make the choice who to read. News is a business, a fiercely competitive one. That’s even more true of non-news media. Everybody does what’s necessary to get an audience.

      I suggest talking to a journalist.

      • The best editorial message you can send to the MSM nowadays is changing the channel when the BS detector sounds. They really do track who watches what. 😉
        Do they care? I’m not sure, but I know the folks buying ad time do.

    • Tom Abbott: “It’s the news media that wants exciting and scary news”

      WR: Unfortunately ‘news’ is business in this era. And in this business most money can be earned with scary things: our built-in survival mechanisms always have full attention for scary things. It is in our genes to pay attention to what could threaten us.

      But it should have been the state that should have guaranteed an independent quality journalism that independenly and critically could do its work and still got paid. Unfortunately the state does not defend quality journalism nor provides the circumstances in which independent journalism can flourish. But a critical independent journalism is a cornerstone of our society: who else can critically follow all what happens in our society and – for example – in science? Distinguishing fake news from the facts? All we have now in bulk is ‘flash news’ and ‘fake news’. Which journalist can study a month on a specific subject and give an independent view on it?

      I am really missing quality newspapers, also in Europe. And that ‘society’ is missing quality newspapers should be recognized by politicians. Some money spend on really independent quality newspapers is one of the best investments for societies that will pay off.

      • Wim, when you wrote “But it should have been the state that should have guaranteed an independent quality journalism” It threw a flag on the play. Do you really think that big brother government should decide what is fair and impartial reporting? That seems just as dangerous as letting the folks who can afford to buy the media outlets decide what’s pertinent to the masses.

        I wish there was a solution at hand.

        • Pop Piasa: “Do you really think that big brother government should decide what is fair and impartial reporting?”

          WR: No Pop, that is not what I think that must happen or should have happened in the past. I used the word ‘independent’ a lot of time. I notice that ‘who pays gets me’ actually happens in the news business as it happens elsewhere. In the news always the advertisers play a main role: for them a large number of ‘views’ has to be scored. I would wish that quality newspapers should have been supported in one way or another in the past in order to have kept them more independent from advertisers.

          I know that quality newspapers in the Netherlands have been stripped from their capital by the new owner. After that they were a playball for the advertisers, leading to a huge amount of ‘alarm alarm’ messages. For example about climate. We know all about that practice.

          In the US only universities with big funds of themselves are relatively independent from the wishes of politicians. Quality newspapers should have stayed more independent from advertisers. When quality newspapers still existed the state should have guaranteed their independence by supporting them without further interfering.

          • I can only think about NPR, CNBC, ABC or BBC when I read your reply, my friend.
            I am an american who has witnessed the biases of privately or sectarian owned, wealthy educational institutions, as well as those in the public education sector, where I spent most of my career. I have come to the conclusion that in the post-modern world, truth represents the views of the highest bidder.

  18. Containment is straightforward – shut down all international air travel, seal the borders, and halt any other form of travel which takes less than 14 days. Isolate and contain. Anything else is messing about.

      • Only because of who suggested it in the first place, but this shouldn’t be of a political nature. Or has the world really gone off the rails?

    • Unfortunately, Canada has and is still allowing unfettered ingress from China. They don’t want to upset China is the probable reason in trying to restore trade in several commodities. It is my understanding the USA has taken much more strict measures about allowing entry of anyone directly flying in from China. So if Covid-19 gets firmly entrenched in Canada from these entries directly from China, then the USA would have to quarantine Canada from entering the USA. You would think that Canada and the USA would be on the same page when it comes to something very important like this. But there is no longer any viable leadership in Canada anymore with Justin Trudeau running Canada into the ground.

  19. I do not see the point of listing news articles.

    There are high level knowledgeable people warning that the Wuhan Virus problem is not going away.

    The US Director of the Centers of Disease Control stated that he believes the Wuhan Virus will mutated and will eventually become a community based disease.

    … like the flu except with the microbiological connections to attack the lung.

    Our news outlets are almost brainless and filtered.

    1) Is the Wuhan Virus a threat to the US?

    i.e. If we had a real epidemic in the US how would we handle it?

    China was almost complete control over their population, over their news media, and over every local government in their country. China, for example, has complete facial tracking of their population.

    We have almost lost control of our population. People do what they want and some attack our police force.

    … and our politicians all fight with each other.

    So if we get a real Wuhan Virus problem, I am not sure China’s success up until now would apply to a real US epidemic.

    2) Is the Wuhan Virus dangerous?

    It is odd (see China statistics below) that there are so few recovered cases.

    It is also odd that there are so many serious critical cases.

    I would assume serious critical is bad.

    3) Is it possible the Wuhan Virus has spread to Africa?

    What are the odds that Ethiopia which has six flights a day from China (four different locations) has zero cases of the Wuhan Virus?

    There were no Wuhan Virus test kits in Africa, until very recently.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Country: China

    Total Cases 68,341
    New Cases +4,490
    Total Deaths 1,662
    New Deaths +282
    Recovered 9,306
    Serious Critical 11,053

    • “China was almost complete control over their population, over their news media, and over every local government in their country.”

      Do you have even of scintilla of evidence that stuff actually works in the real world?

    • William Astley: “t is odd (see China statistics below) that there are so few recovered cases”

      WR: some 36,000 people still are hospitalized in the province of Hubei alone. They can’t be send home before they are virus-free.

    • “William Astley February 15, 2020 at 3:26 pm

      What are the odds that Ethiopia which has six flights a day from China (four different locations) has zero cases of the Wuhan Virus?”

      One of the most common means of, bar sneezing of course, transmission between people is physical contact, hand to hand. In Ethiopia, at each meal or coffee, hands are cleaned and dried. It’s a custom. If you greet someone who has been working with their hands and you offer to shake their hand, their arm is offered instead.

    • than you William Astley February 15, 2020 at 3:26 pm

      i almost feel as if Larry is chastising critical thinkers for discussing very real possibilities and planning ahead if the negative and more negative possibilities materialize. If you read about the Spanish Flu–the media coverage and “don;t panic” messages were the same and things were pretty OK until they weren’t. We are overdue for a bad global pandemic and it is a good thing to concern ourselves with it–not dismiss it as “flu like” and “look at the Ebola scare” that never happened.

      and CLS February 16, 2020 at 4:23 pm
      “The hyper dynamic response makes me think the Chinese are not sharing some very dark secret (s). Yes it is a severe, devastating disease for about 15% infected. But there’s something else not evident in official press releases from China. ”

      I believe you nailed it! I am thinking the exact same thing–containment camps in South Korea? Isolating people on an island? Not allowing ships to dock? there’s a missing piece here..

  20. I actually think news on this issue is mostly suppressed so there is not a worldwide panic. The facts on the ground in Hubei/Wuhan don’t match the daily reports so people are rightfully suspicious of the statistics.

    The greatest fear for most governments is an out of control epidemic which overwhelms medical resources in major cities like what is happening in Wuhan.

    We happen to have relatives, friends and even healthcare worker friends living in Wuhan. The situation is dire and should not be underestimated. The length of incubation time combined with a potentially high Rnaught, results in the very ingredients for a worldwide pandemic. So the number of early cases around the world are mostly those who traveled from China as expected. What hasn’t shown up is the massive increase in detected cases since not enough time has elapsed for secondary infections to show up in numbers just like Wuhan started slowly then ramped.

    So while there is a great hope that the models are wrong, there is some validity to using them for planning purposes in the event current control measures fail. By now there could be a million worldwide infections only they don’t know it. To underplay the reality and facts are not helpful other than to allay fears.

  21. Could the article be even more stupid? Probably not. The virus is extremely dangerous, and the Chinese failed to contain it despite all the drastic measures (blocking people inside their homes, shooting people fleeing quarantine, violently arresting people not wearing masks). Nothing has worked. Just remember, it took China a month from first pneumonia to the first dead. It took them another month to a thousand dead. We just had the first dead outside Asia. We are on the same track. And we won’t implement the same stringent measures. In fact Chinese airplanes still lands daily here in Frankfurt. Nobody goes through a quarantine, they go to a fair instead, communicating with thousands of people and going back to China. Meanwhile a single Chinese woman from the company Webabsto infected 14 people in Bavaria. Detected more or less accidentally. With R-nought around 4 and lethality around 10% this is the perfect disaster. All thanks to the “better”, globalized world. Could the article be any more stupid? Nope.

    • Van Doren,

      The exact same bogus logic of the climate extremists.

      I suggest you read some of the reports from the CDC or WHO. You are quite wrong on a number of points. But there’s no point in replying to such hysteria – as 30 years of talking to hysterics about climate has proven.

      Nobody can tell what the future holds in an epidemic, but your confident predictions of doom are like those for Ebola and SARS – which proved wrong.

      By the way,

      • I’ve read most of the medical scientific papers on the topic that came out in the last month. I don’t need the political WHO for that.

  22. About China’s numbers

    The most frequent comment I’ve gotten in response to my three posts about the global spread of coronavirus is “China’s numbers aren’t accurate.” It’s like a mantra, or the key to life.

    Everybody knows that. What difference does it make? If God told us that the number dead in China was 2x or 3x the reported numbers, what would the rest of the world do differently?

    What if the number of cases and deaths were 5x more? The number of foreign cases – which indicates the spread – would still be the same. The number dead from the 526 cases would still be (so far) two (more are coming).

    China’s numbers are bad news for China. If they are worse than reported, they’re very bad news. But there is nothing any other nation can do to help – other than produced treatments and vaccines. That effort is already running at high speed.

    • Regarding China’s numbers, “Everybody knows that. What difference does it make?”

      A great deal, as if China had been honest the world could have reacted sooner and WHO would have not intially downplayed the situation.

      I agree global response has improved. Yet the economic consequences of China’s extreme but late reaction is powerful motivation ( for good and bad reasons) for other nations to likewise be less then forthcoming in what they tell the ROW.

      If Africa, North Korea, and other nations, as a consequence of seeing the damage to China’s economy, likewise hide the initial extent of infection, then it may make a great deal of difference.

  23. Used the word k!ll in first post, so itt went into moderation. Repost

    About 68% of Chinese men (approximately 500 million) smoke cigarettes, and most start before age 20. A Lancet study concluded that 20% of male deaths this decade will be from smoking, so it’s a serious national health issue.

    Most CVirus cases are men between 50-65 (one study said 68%). Smoking cigarettes for 30-45 years tends to make people very unhealthy. I want to see the data showing what percentage of corona virus victims are/were smokers because that can shed some light on whether this is a virulent virus, or merely an opportunistic one, i.e., only kills the immuno-compromised . Typically, opportunistic diseases k!ll the very young, the very old and people with low immunity or serious health issues. This disease, however, basically leaves children untouched, which makes sense if this is an opportunistic disease preying largely on unhealthy smokers, because children don’t smoke.

      • Holy smokes, Batman!

        However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to non-smoker samples. This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen.

  24. Mods: Please delete my prior two comments

    About 68% of Chinese men (approximately 500 million) smoke cigarettes, and most start before age 20. A Lancet study concluded that 20% of male deaths this decade will be from smoking, so it’s a serious national health issue.

    Most CVirus cases are men between 50-65 (one study said 68%). Smoking cigarettes for 30-45 years tends to make people very unhealthy. I want to see the data showing what percentage of corona virus victims are/were smokers because that can shed some light on whether this is a virulent virus, or merely an opportunistic one, i.e., only k!lls the immuno-compromised . Typically, opportunistic diseases k!ll the very young, the very old and people with low immunity or serious health issues. This disease, however, basically leaves children untouched, which makes sense if this is an opportunistic disease preying largely on unhealthy smokers, because children don’t smoke.

    • Interestingly, I recently read an article that claimed that the lufe expectancy disparity between men and women was likely to have been at least influenced by the fact that more men smoked than women. It even suggested that it could have been a cause of the entire disparity, but I doubt that myself.

      Certainly flu and any respiratory disease will be influenced by smoking. As someone who have up 10 or 15 years ago, I am very aware of how much better my lungs are, although permanently damaged unfortunately. At least I’ve convinced my children never to smoke, and I’m working on the great-nephews and nieces.

        • Well, because so many baby girls were aborted, that will maybe help even out the millions of more men in the ready to marry category than the women who don’t smoke. That is a good question about the smoking issue, since this is a lung issue when mortality strikes and the person is deceased from Covid-19, being similar to pneumonia for the final cause. Would also be interesting to see some stats how many men vs. women get infected and the mortality rate of both. And ages, and whether they smoked. A fair number of people who have expired from pneumonia related illness at an early age were heavy smokers. Combined with the overall pollution and smoking, things don’t bode well for these parts of China that are heavily populated and polluted from unrestricted industrialization. Not to mention general sanitation and the wet markets with dead and live animals being sold and processed in pro sanitary urban settings. China is going to have to do some soul searching for the way their society operates with regards to food markets from whence this appears to sprang, at least from a perspective of public health.

    • Icisil: “About 68% of Chinese men (approximately 500 million) smoke cigarettes”

      Smoking could really play a role, together with polluted air. Men are smoking much more and according to the WHO (in the end of January) more than 70% of all confirmed cases was men. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#age

      I thought to have seen later a lower percentage for men, more into the direction of 55%, but still a higher percentage.

  25. So that image with the biohazard symbol is from the very popular mobile and computer game called “Plague Inc”.

    • Please read the text here and ignore the graphics. I see the same graphics show up repeatedly, representing different headlines on this blog. Don’t be distracted by that.

  26. I wish China had cracked down much more on these live animal markets, before this virus jumped to humans. After SARS and swine flu there really is no excuse.

    I don’t know enough about the virus. My speculation is that if flu cannot be contained I don’t see how this can be contained, since apparently this virus is more contagious than the flu.

    If it does get out, and we have a good vaccine will it mutate like the flu so a new vaccine is needed every year ?

    There are many questions that need to be answered.

    • Just read where the Chinese scientists are now admitting the virus came from their highly controlled lab and that they were weaponizing it – just like I said two days ago.

      People seem to think that this was a “natural” occurrence but they are failing to see that with SARS there were few human deaths because it is a difficult virus to catch because only certain people in constant contact with birds such as chickens, ducks, etc. catch it.

      However, with this virus – it apparently “jumped” from bats to humans quickly and then like a slow moving train picked up speed as more and more people were infected. This is not a zoonotic transmission this is a human who became contaminated with the virus who went home and gave it to his/her family and anyone they came into contact with.

      It is moving through the Chinese population very fast and must have been incubating long before December when it “suddenly” appeared because so many people were entering hospital with an odd type of pneumonia and many were beginning to die before they could actually be helped.

      This leads me to believe the Chinese government knew about this virus, was encouraging scientists to work on weaponizing it way back in 2018. Then for some reason there was a breech in containment and rather than report it the researcher got scared and kept his/her mouth shut hoping they would not come down with whatever they were weaponizing.

      This will someday make a great book and then translate into a great movie as more and more information drips out of the Chinese government – if there are any of us left when this is all over…

  27. Wait just one minute! . . . the above article did not include a single reference stating that SAR-CoV-2 was caused by AGW. How is that possible within today’s MSM?

    • Perhaps “Outbreak” would have been a better movie at the beginning of this but “Contagion” is how the Chinese government is handling their people now – welding doors shut, blocking windows so people can’t get out of apartment buildings where ONE person has been infected. No food was allowed in, the electricity and water were cut off to the buildings as well. This is what the government did to people in this movie. If anyone attempted to escape these death traps the government had snipers and military personnel ready to shoot them down and in the movie they did exactly that. The Chinese government is following this movie to the T.

  28. I had several item deliver from China the last week.
    Have I imported this Virus?
    Just asking, people need to know?

    • The human corona virus is believed not too survive ‘on surfaces’ 9 days. Often much less. A study about former corona type virusses states that:

      “For veterinary coronaviruses 28 days is mentioned in the study, for other human coronaviruses (not 2019-nCoV) just 9 days.

      “Human coronaviruses can remain infectious on inanimate surfaces at room temperature for up to 9 days. At a temperature of 30°C or more the duration of persistence is shorter. Veterinary coronaviruses have been shown to persist even longer for 28 d.”

      The conclusion:
      Human coronaviruses can remain infectious on inanimate surfaces for up to 9 days. Surface disinfection with 0.1% sodium hypochlorite or 62-71% ethanol significantly reduces coronavirus infectivity on surfaces within 1 min exposure time. We expect a similar effect against the 2019-nCoV.

      Source: https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext

    • Possibly. Have you handled the outside packaging or items that were inside the shipping container, including its internal packaging/cushioning material? Was the original of any of these items from cities near Wuhan?

      Watch for symptoms (just like the flu, except for the body aches) over the next 24 days (addition incubation margin added, just to be safe).

      • Addendum to above:
        “A coronavirus can also be transmitted by touching an object where airborne droplets have settled.
        The viruses can survive briefly on surfaces depending on conditions of humidity and temperature.” —source https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-we-know-about-the-wuhan-virus-11579716128

        Note: the word “briefly” in the above quote was not quantified. The term “airborne droplets” refers to atomized saliva from sneezes or coughs from an infected individual, who may asymptomatic at the time of the sneeze or cough.

      • Thank you for the reply.
        Just got the head cold.
        I have had several flu.
        the worst being in the 70’s
        You Know when its flu,
        when if you saw a £50 not on the front lawn,
        It would stay there.

  29. Pandemics have always been a risk, but modern medicine will find a way to reduce the threat.
    And then there has been that evolutionary step whereby if the pathogen kills its host quickly it is game over for the disease.
    But one the greatest threats to mankind has been totalitarian governments with a magnificent passion.
    Such as the current mania to ensure that the temperature of the nearest planet is set at the “perfect” level.
    Thereby wasting trillions of dollars on what is essentially another promotion to control people.
    China’s attempts to control people have had horrendous results.
    With the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s and early 1970s some 30 million died. Famine, executions and massacres.
    While the immediate passion is to control a disease, the real motivation is to control the people.
    And as with the earlier disasters–always for the “good” of the people.
    The state could be a greater threat than the pandemic.

  30. I have also read that Vitamin D can cure this thing in a few days, especially with the help of vitamin C and other immune boosters. One source–might be true, might not. But the vitamin remedy has withstood millions of years of trial and error, with numbers beyond comprehension.
    Remdesivir will undergo some infinitesimal fraction of such testing–too small a fraction for words.

    All the quarantines are in dark (sunless) conditions, and mostly depleted foods. That is a recipe for scary death rates.

    I am still not convinced it is even an especially bad cold–even if it does contain a gene insertion tool in its genome as claimed.

    I think most of us will be exposed to this within the next few years–and most of us will never even know it.

  31. Larry, thank you for this post.

    Also, bravo for responding to an amazing number of comments on this thread. From past experience (years ago) I know how draining that can be.

    Regards,
    Bob

  32. Just ignore the China data. Numbers from the rest of the world are less ‘adjusted’, and shoukd be analyzed on their own.

    The cruise ship off of Japan shows that the virus is significantly contagious in a densely populated situation. There is also evidence that some may be ‘super-carriers’ with high R0 potential, but the typical infected person, substantially less.

    What is encouraging is that the death rate in industrialized countries has been low. Perhaps the most susceptible groups will be those in retirement homes, prisons, any type of other lock-down facilities, where the environment is similar to the cruise ship. But even then, it looks like a los mortality rate for first-world countries.

    As usual, it is the rest of the world that will pay the price. India, Pakistan, Nepal, Egypt, and other such countries will be the ones to watch. Hygiene is more difficult; hospitals easily overwhelmed.

  33. It’s a little early in the story for people to start clapping each other on the back about how well COVID-19 is being handled and belittling the concerns of others.

    I’ve been following the statistics from Johns Hopkins (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) and it is heartening that the numbers outside China haven’t gone exponential, but no one knows for sure where this lands, including Larry Kummer.

    How contagious is COVID and under what circumstances? How lethal is it and under what circumstances? Why has it hit China so hard? Why hasn’t it hit other countries as hard? There are plausible responses, but experts disagree and I haven’t seen solid answers to these questions yet. The next couple weeks will give us a better idea if there is a hidden reservoir of carriers outside China.

    I’ll keep reading and thinking for myself.

  34. If this COVID-19 brings about the collapse of the Kim Dynasty in North Korea, then something good will come of it.
    How many tens of millions of NorthKoreans have died by the hand of their own government the last 70 years? By some estimates, 60 million dead at hands of their own government and famines from policy since the end of Korean open conflict in 1953.
    So a couple million dead there from corona virus and 5 million sick more including most of their military would probably collapse North Korea’s fragile top-down built infrastructure. Top-down built social-political structures are fragile to these kinds of events going back 5,000 years in human societal history.
    Yes, that is horrific, buyt how else can a country ruled by a despot with the most riuthless suppression tactics be overthrown by a downtrodden, pacified people?
    In the aftermath, maybe South Korea could come it, will world assistance from China and US to funding to stabilize the situation and begin the long 30 year process to re-integrate the 2 Koreas under South Korean leadership.

    That’s the only bright spot I can see.

    • Pelosi with weird speech, along with Batman and Robin Pompeo and Esper are frothing at the mouth right now at the Munich Security Conference. Now we have the missing Joker – give ’em a call.

  35. I had a quick look at those stories and I have read some before. Behind the headlines, mostly written by none person, there is a lot less of the fear mongering than Jude Laws character in Contagion.

    Personally, I am still hoping that this outbreak will fade. I don’t know if this is the sort of extremely deadly global pandemic that so many experts have been warning could happen one day, but without a doubt it is definitely clear that a lot of people are dying over in China.

    Will the final death toll from this outbreak eventually number in the thousands or the millions?

    I don’t know, but all of us should definitely continue to monitor the latest developments on a daily basis.

    And he is right that we will get a pandemic one day that if it doesn’t have a high death toll will cause a lot of economic grief as we try to control it. As long as he doesn’t encourage people to quit and hide in the hills, not an issue.

  36. Have any non-Orientals died of this? It seems Occidentals carry it but no deaths reported, AFAIK. News reports rarely give racial breakdowns.

      • As of Feb 16, only 5 non-Chinese nationals have died from this virus. How many of those 5 people were ethnically/genetically Chinese I can’t determine. Just based on the Japan cruise ship, that does seem to point towards an ethnicity bias for mortality, though not for being infected, yes.

      • There is now a theory circulating that the ACE enzyme may play a part in where, how fast, and to what degree the virus spreads in the body. As it happens, Asians have more of that enzyme that Europeans.

        You might maintain your near-perfect record of being wrong.

    • Ethnic-oriented protein match, probably. That may mean immunity for others, until mutation, and probably carriers that place the so-called “herd” at risk.

    • 90% of the Asian have higher expression of ACE2 in the lungs, which makes them more susceptible to the disease, but 50% of the European have this phenotype as well.

  37. “It has not taken hold in countries outside of China”

    True, but it has taken ~ 3 months to get to the stage we see in China now. What will be the situation in SE and Sth Asia (India) in 3 months time?

    I don’t see that it is possible to contain this outbreak to any significant extent. The key question relates to the infectious lifetime of the virus. Spanish Flu was ~ 2 yrs. Given the current reaction in regards to travel e.tc. the world economy would buckle should the current restrictions stay in place and be extended in the West (imo). The Chinese student market alone is worth $ billions globally. Prices for commodities imported by China are taking a big hit: – 50% for NZ red meat. Logs are stuck on our wharves and forest workers have down-tools. Australia cannot be doing any better.

    I have this feeling that a heavy-handed approach to trying to contain may be more costly (and be of limited effect) than letting the outbreak run its course (depending on how “costly” is defined) . The law of untended consequences applies.

    The Chinese market is just too big. When China catches the flu the rest of the world will sneeze. Or worse.

    I don’t know if it possible but I would like to see an opinion poll created on this site. I have seen it done on other forums.

    I would like to see other’s opinions on such questions as:
    – How long will outbreak last?
    – Will the percentages of people infected and killed globally be similar to common flu (more/less)
    – Will mortality rates be significantly higher in developing countries than developed ?
    – Will developed countries contain the outbreak?
    – Can the health systems in developed countries cope with an infection rate as high as in China?
    – Is the actual mortality rate significantly higher than what is being reported?
    – Will the virus mutate and start killing a different demographic group?
    – Will the virus mutate and increase mortality rate?
    – Will the outbreak trigger a global recession?

    I guess it would have to be a tick-the-box version.

    Cheers

    M

    • ‘I have this feeling that a heavy-handed approach to trying to contain may be more costly (and be of limited effect) than letting the outbreak run its course (depending on how “costly” is defined) . The law of untended consequences applies.”

      Possibly, but that reaction on China, very extreme compared to the ‘ official” numbers, and many other reasons is why some fear that it is far worse then the official numbers.

      China’s hospital situation was desperate. 20 percent of infections were leading to IC.
      Thousands that needed treatment could not and likely cannot get it. In that situation not reacting would only lead to worse spread and panic. Millions in panic mode would mean far worse consequences.

  38. Upthread commentators speculate why this Wuhan coronavirus seems potentially to afflict more the Chinese, than others somfar; & is the Chinese coronavirus crisis scope going to be replicated in the West. One feature to understand is that Asians have more of the enzyme abreviated “ACE2” than Europeans; I’m skipping parsing worldwide ancestries.

    The relevance is that coronavirus uses the enzyme ACE2 to get at human cells. See free full text (2020) on-line: “The nicel coronavirus 2019 (2019-nCoe) uses the SARS-coronavirus receptor ACE2 and the cellular protease TMPRSS2 for entry into target cells”.

    • edit : “novel” is the correct 2nd word in cited title above & replace the “e” at end of parenthesis abbreviation with the letter “r” ….

    • Other reports indicate that smoking, not ethnicity, is the reason for the higher ACE2 count in the Chinese population.

      Waiting for clarification on this.

  39. To upset the Apple cart a little there is a new country to add to the list. Egypt has been added to the list today. Only one case was confirmed there but with the ability of this virus to pass on without the host showing symptoms is troubling. For all of the WHO’s faults with trying to downplay this outbreak at the start one of their biggest fears was if this virus got a foothold in an over populated country with marginal medical and sanitation conditions like Egypt. I guess we will have to wait and see.

  40. “A better new world”
    Is this a newspeak???

    What we have?
    1. Biolab Level 4 in Wuhan, where the corona viruses were studied, and where the outbreak originated
    2. This happened in October-November 2019.
    3. This virus became public only on December 31, 2019, after the regime failed keeping it secret.
    4. We have 70,000 infected and 1700 dead now
    5. The quarantine in China is drastic: empty streets, ceveral cities are locked. Everybody has to stay at home.
    6. Even moving from one district to another in Wuhan is prohibited.
    7. Latest news: death penalty for anybody, who keeps his dicease secret and does not inform authorities.

    And yet, despite all these draconic measures, thousands of new cases and a hundred deaths daily.

    70.000 infected makes 0.005% of China population. Yet, the virus already spreads worldwide.

    Biolab in Wuhan was a copy of the U.S. biolabs, where outbreaks are also not uncommon…
    Surely, a “better world”.

  41. Larry,
    It’s funny to watch skeptics respond to ‘worse case’ scarenarios the same way alarmist respond to
    RCP 8.5

    Could Covid be really really bad? yup. The combination of a high R0, asymptomatic transmission and relatively high CFR is a recipe for mathematical disaster. Could be.

    Note I say mathematical.

    Here is a cool model for England. I’m sure some journalist will misrepresent the output.
    They HAVE TO. This is why you should never get your science from newspapers.
    Get a BIBLIOGRAPHY from the news–sources, cites, etc,– and then dismiss every word
    the journalist wrote. Read the science instead

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566v1

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566v1.full.pdf

    Are models reality? Nope. They merely outline what is possible, given what we know and making
    assumptions about what we don’t know. That is, knowing what we know about the past it would reckless
    to disregard what we do in fact know, despite our ignorance about key things. Not every
    question needs to be settled to understand the mathematical possibilities. Dont freak out over possibilities
    and dont ignore them.

    What should you do?

    As with climate, start with no regrets actions. Stuff you should be doing REGARDLESS.

    wash your hands more than you think you should, stop touching your damn face. Wear a mask if you are coughing, sneezing or otherwise potentially endangering others. Its not your air. Don’t go to work if you are sick FFS.

    At some point here I will have to go back to Beijing.

    meh.

    Now

    It’s funny to watch skeptics respond to ‘worse case’ scarenarios the same way alarmist respond to
    RCP 8.5
    Wonder why this is? Risk perceptions are Identity driven. If you fear the “other” then, of course,
    you will be in a panic about diseases, crime, etc that result from “others” coming to your country.
    and you will easily accept the math models of disease spread. without noting the assumptions
    or knowing the difference between a projection ( conditional prediction) and a prediction.
    If you mistrust FF industry, then, of course , you will be in a panic about risks that are industry related.
    and will easily accept something like RCP 8.5 as a prediction, when it’s not.

    These responses preserve Identity.
    Folks will interpret according to their Identity until it becomes painful to do so.

    lastly At some point there might be an interesting discussion about the right to spread rumors, we all know you cant shout fire in a crowded theatre. Can you shout Virus in
    a crowded world? I suppose there will be an interesting discussion about the role of experts.

    • “Its not your air.”
      Yeah, we know, its the IPCC’s atmosphere.
      They hold especially dear the 0.04% CO2 – its like gold to them. Can’t have a glut.
      Permission to breath, Sir?
      My 2 cents.

      • if I pissed in your drinking water what would you say?

        we share the air. that makes the problem tough

        So, question, I left China on Jan 24th.
        Would you be happy with me coughing next to you on the plane?
        well would you?
        IPCC’s air? nope. Not theirs, not yours, not mine. Ours.
        governance of shared resources is tough

        • I put a lot of NOx in the air today – diesel ya know.

          How dare I?

          Just now I breathed out 4% CO2.

          How dare I?

          How dare you, self esteemed Squire, lecture anyone on “our” air!

          So piss in someone else’s exhaust.

          We certainly do not share the same ideas, which after all is what this all about.

    • “Larry,
      It’s funny to watch skeptics respond to ‘worse case’ scarenarios the same way alarmist respond to
      RCP 8.5”

      Another absurd analogy. Whereas just about exactly zero people have been killed or hospitalized by anthropogenic SLR, Hurricanes Tornadoes or extreme weather, and the KNOWN benefits if CO2 are immense, this virus has very rapidly killed far more then SARS or MERS, and has a manifesting R-naught in China that is worthy of great concern. Additionally Chinese reaction to this virus is extreme and a real threat to their economy and to the global economy; and the videos leaking out of China, people lined up for blocks trying to get medical aid, people dying in those lines, reports from Doctors in China of 10 plus day hospitalization requirements for 20 percent of the infected, which overwhelms the medical system,
      reports of many dying of this virus never getting added to the infected numbers, reports of many just going home to die, etc, are all real events with exactly zero real world correlation to results of CAGW

      Therefore it is my perspective that if you wish to make a case that the world has greatly increased its ability to respond to viral epidemics, and that there is no reason to panic, and much of what is published is click bate for readership, then it us best to use less insulting and very inaccurate analogies.

    • Steve Mosher posted: “As with climate, start with no regrets actions. Stuff you should be doing REGARDLESS.”

      And what person, committee or organization determines what “stuff” all of humanity should be doing REGARDLESS?

      And if the worldwide cost of the “no regrets actions” exceeds, say, twice the world gross domestic product (over $180 trillion USD) over the next two years, is that OK with all the world’s nations assuming each is to pay their “fair share”?

      • “And what person, committee or organization determines what “stuff” all of humanity should be doing REGARDLESS?”

        Typically the folks in charge. And note, it’s not the same for all folks.
        There is no supposition that No regrets policies will be the same everywhere.

        “And if the worldwide cost of the “no regrets actions” exceeds, say, twice the world gross domestic product (over $180 trillion USD) over the next two years, is that OK with all the world’s nations assuming each is to pay their “fair share”?”

        Seems like you don’t know the meaning of no regrets.

        Example of no regrets.

        1. You should probably NOT distort the insurance market by subsidizing the rates of folks
        who build in places known to flood.
        2. You should probably control underbrush in fire prone areas.
        3. You should probably not burn dung for cooking food or warmth.
        4. You should probably not shut down nukes before their life is up.
        5. Energy efficiency is a good thing.

        No regrets. wash your damn hands and dont touch your face, and cover your mouth when you cough.

        • A lot of leeway and differences in perceived level of importance are contained in the two words “should probably”.

          I have no regrets is stating such.

        • “the folks in charge”.
          Interesting, that’s Gleichschaltung, the folks (corporate governance) “in charge” after an “emergency”, in charge after an Reichstagsbrand, or “climate emergency”.
          Ever heard or this stuff?
          They liked then to issue little yellow diamonds with no regrets.
          In fact to this day they have never regretted.
          And yes, it is true, it’s not the same for all folks – see the famine in India, or the “famine” in Ireland – no regrets, the market was protected with the British Empire, Squire.
          You certainly qualify for de-carbonizer Dr. Schellnhuber’s title, CBE – Commander of the British Empire, Squire. Give Her Majesty a call.

        • You forgot to mention, “You should probably express yourself civilly as an adult in the company of equals, even if you don’t quite believe they are, rather than as a snarky college sophomore running his/her mouth for the pleasure of it.

          No regrets. Edit your own damn comments like you have some idea of how grownups interact.

          • cover your mouth when you cough
            you see you have a choice whether to read my snark or not.
            maybe folks sitting next to you have no choice but to breathe.

            It’s pretty simple and you don’t disagree, why else would you parry logic with
            weak comments about style?

            you only comment about style because you have no actual argument.
            Like liberals who object to Trumps style

          • Mosher: No, I’ve made substantive arguments in other comments. You are outside your expertise here. You’re just another guy on the internet with an opinion, a lack of manners and outsized arrogance.

    • What a lazy, disjointed comment…and too cute for words.

      It’s not that hard to figure why skeptics of climate change might be equally skeptical of government pronouncements that COVID is under control, nothing to see here, so move on. Most Western observers assume the Chinese numbers are substantial underestimates. What other claims might be happy talk to put a better face on things?

      Kummer and Mosher deign to psychologize their opponents, but neither Kummer nor Mosher stand above this fray like God — or Santa Claus deciding who’s been bad and who’s been good. It’s hard to miss by their smugness their personal investment in being clever and contrarian.

        • Exactly and we are to believe they are working really hard to be transparent with the number of people dead, dying, and ill. They waited until their system was overwhelmed with the ill and dying. They waited while 5 million people escaped the epicenter to jump on cruise ships, airplanes, buses, and cars leaving behind the horror – they thought they were leaving it behind – only to take it with them.

          Who were these people who escaped? Were they frightened researchers, doctors, nurses, government leaders, rich people who could afford to get out before the city was shut down?

          They all knew and did nothing, said nothing to their own fellow citizens and people began to die.

    • You continue with nonsense; “It’s funny to watch skeptics respond to ‘worse case’ scarenarios the same way alarmist respond to
      RCP 8.5”
      My response was here https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/15/amazing-but-hidden-news-about-coronavirus/#comment-2918191
      and elsewhere.

      BTW, many of the alarmist responses to RCP 8.5 are peer reviewed reports by lettered scientist, and those papers are regularly ripped apart here and elsewhere, yet you Mr Mosher do not participate in the critiques of these published alarmist papers, yet are quick to come here and make horribly false analogies.

      • “BTW, many of the alarmist responses to RCP 8.5 are peer reviewed reports by lettered scientist, and those papers are regularly ripped apart here and elsewhere, yet you Mr Mosher do not participate in the critiques of these published alarmist papers, yet are quick to come here and make horribly false analogies.”

        1. never seen a paper ripped apart here. Ripping would consist of publishing data and methods
        Only person who does that is willis.

        2. It’s not an analogy. Its an observation. Analogy is “dogs are like people”

        3. Err I have been critical of RCP 8.5 since 2015 at least.

        4. Logically my criticism of 8.5 or lack of criticism has ZERO to do with the argument
        I am making:

        To recap: People judge risk based on their identity. In general, you probably judge the risk from foreigners higher than you judge the risks from corporations, and leftist do the opposite.
        It is very hard to be objective in risk assessment because all risk is uncertain, by its nature

    • It ain’t my “Identity” that I fear for. My papers and estate will survive me. It is my life next autumn, next year, and loved one’s lives that drive me to seek safety, Steve Mosher. In Wuhan, where I have an old friend in lockdown, I appear to fit the high risk category.

      You are out of touch with real life and real people: too long in SF? (I do have old friends living there, too. One who could not attend the World Mobile Congress in Barca, cancelled for…irrational “reasons,” I’m told.)

  42. The problem is that nobody knows for sure how severe the situation is, and then the most scary stories sells best.

    If WHO and the Chinese reporting are correct, the rate of infections in China peaked February 5. at 3893 cases per day. The last three days have had fewer than 2000 new cases per day.

    The infection rate outside China hopefully peaked February 11th at 76 new cases.
    /Jan

    • “The last three days have had fewer than 2000 new cases per day.’

      I do not believe that to be true. Please verify.

      • According to WHO (see https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/ ):
        February 13 report: 1826 new cases reported globally in last 24 hours
        February 14 report: 2056 new cases reported globally in last 24 hours
        February 15 report: 1527 new cases reported globally in last 24 hours

        These three days average to 1803 new cases per day, which is less than 2000 new cases per day.

        QED.

        Note: February 16 report: 1278 new cases reported globally in last 24 hours

        • ..but it only takes one in the right place

          Two Japanese tourists had it in Hawaii on vacation….
          Did they catch it in Hawaii?
          …catch it in Japan before they left…passed it around on the plane and hotel?
          passed it around on the plane when they returned to Japan?

          ..or even catch it on the plane on the way to Hawaii??

        • Gordon Dressler: Sure those are the official numbers. But do you recall way back to Feb. 12 — five days ago, when many were breathing a sigh of relief that COVID was leveling off — then BOOM! a 15.1k increase in a single day.

          Of course, you conveniently begin your statistics list *the day after* that huge jump. QED indeed.

          The Chinese changed their standard for confirmed cases from a test kit positive to a clinical diagnosis. They were running out of test kits and/or getting backed up. Not surprisingly.

          Now the case numbers are leveling off again. Maybe it’s good news. But I doubt it. They’ve quarantined millions of people and their system is overwhelmed.

          I suspect they are now reporting only as many can as they can manage to report. Who knows how many people are sick in their homes and uncounted.

          • huxley,
            1) The “BOOM” you reference was due largely to defining a better, more accurate method to diagnose/test for novel coronavirus infection, but a delaying in reporting from certain regions is China also contributed to the jump.
            2) I begin my listing of days directly in response the request to validate that there had been “less than 2000 new cases per day of confirmed coronavirus infection over the last three days” (see David A’s February 16, 2020, 11:00 am post above). There was nothing “convenient” in doing this.
            3) Your are completely free to believe in any conspiracy theories that you want, as well as to imply that other WUWT posters have sinister motives for their posting . . . but that doesn’t mean that you are correct . . . good luck with that approach in your life.

  43. One issue I have is the assertion that “every one is panicking”. I don’t know where this idea came from. I open the newspapers and I see no end of articles on Meghan Markle and other celebrities, on Brexit, Boris Johnson, the Labour party leadership contest (yes, I live in the UK), mumps vaccines, high cost of electric charging points, and a single page on the COVID-19, with the title that half of Britons would fall ill in the worse case scenario, according to the chief medical officer. The term “fall ill” is not an alarmist phrase.

    Similarly, I have not overheard people talking about “coronavirus”, there is no hoarding, people appear quite disinterested. You have to go onto YouTube to see alarmist reporting, after you wade through usual channels on politics, cars, sports, kittens, movies and all the rest of it. That you will find alarmist reporting on a platform with millions of channels is completely unsurprising. Panicking? Yawning more like.

    • Good post. That public disinterest, and the very false comparison to CAGW alarmists have a string negative affect on an otherwise informative post.

  44. Kids love scare stories, and so do many grownups, it’s remnant of our self-preservation evolution development. Here is one more version:

    “Professor Chandra Wickramasinghe of the Buckingham Astrobiology Center contributed to a paper submitted last week to The Lancet in which he proposes that a meteorite which crashed in October 2019 in Sonjyan City (also called Songyuan) some 2200 km (1360 miles) north of Wuhan, the center of the coronavirus outbreak, may have spread “hundreds of trillions of infective viral particles” that were “embedded in the form of fine carbonaceous dust” as it blazed through the Chinese atmosphere until it fell to Earth. Wickramasinghe is a well-known British mathematician, astronomer and astrobiologist who strongly supports the idea of panspermia – space rocks and spacecraft carrying and spreading living organisms around the universe.”

  45. Basic requirement for any, repeat, any reporting on any ‘medical epidemic/pandemic’.

    1. Define what a pandemic means: it is not threatening to human survival unless it will kill 100m+ in a year. With a global population of 9 billion, 100 million at least die every year through natural wastage.
    2. Do not prematurely define a pandemic based on very, very early statistics. It is like calling a 2 year old Einstein. You may be right, far far more likely you are talking baloney.
    3. Do not pronounce humans incapable of overcoming a new disease vector naturally without explaining that you manufactured the weapon to make it not so. That is the only justification for knowing that the human immune system will not overcome this disease: you made a biological weapon.
    4. Do not proclaim with certainty that the vector will spread globally where food practices may be radically different. We have no sign of an emerging pandemic in the UK despite a few cases emerging from those returning from Wuhan.
    5. DO say that you are monitoring the situation and the trigger for global worrying is 1 million serious cases. Not 1 million sniffles: 1 million people needing hospitalisation and in danger of dying if untreated. At least then educated people will take you seriously.
    6. Do NOT say that experts are always accurate. Foot and Mouth in the UK twenty years ago was a classic example of appalling computer modelling by ‘experts’ who had never worked on a farm in their lives. All the model assumptions proved to be WRONG. Stop assuming modellers have the first competence until the real world proves that they do. They are grant seeking hustlers seeing a new gravy train……

  46. The scaremongering by the western media is outrageous and criminally irresponsible. The headline story in the UK Sunday Mail newspaper today reads that ‘the global death toll has surpassed 1,600’. Of course 99%+ of those deaths are in China and virtually all in Wuhan still, months after it first appeared. When we reach the level of the swine flu pandemic of 2009, when nearly 400,000 cases and over 200 deaths were reported in the UK alone, then we can start to panic. Yesterday NBC informed us that there have been 14,000 deaths from flu so far this winter in the USA, a strain of flu not seen since 1993.

  47. So we should trust the Chinese and the World Health Organisation?

    Hmmmmmmmmm… That was me breathing through my nebulizer.

  48. From the Telegraph:

    Prof Neil Ferguson, professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College, has warned that the world is “in the early phases of a global pandemic”.

    He said Britain is probably only picking up around one in three cases, focusing on those coming in to the country, when cases may have arrived – and gone undetected – before restrictions set in.

    “Surveillance has started in hospitals across the UK of pneumonia cases, that will give us a proper picture,” he said.

    “Our best estimate is that transmission in the UK will get going in the next few weeks; unless we are very lucky probably peaking 2 to 3 months after that,” he said. “If it truly establishes itself in terms of true person-to-person transmission it will behave like a flu pandemic, maybe up to 60 percent of the population being affected but most of those people having very mild symptoms.”

    He suggested that 400,000 people in the UK could die from it in the next 12 months, based on estimates of a 1 per cent mortality rate and an infection rate of 60 percent of the population.

    • The world is 4 weeks behind the Chinese curve… 21. January – 278 cases, 4 dead. The world outside China today minus the cruise ship – 338 cases, 3 dead. But we are completely safe, nothing to see here, move along…

  49. Don’t discount this is China and Chinese government.
    Not to say they’ve taken advantage of the epidemic but one should notice included in their massive response has been the isolation and shutting down all dissent (think Hong Kong) and it’s spread. Those alive in 1989 might recall their response. Seems they had to move in troops from outside the effected areas. This time around, no need to shuffle troops since they have an easy to understand public health crisis and just coincided with their internal dissent crisis.
    Don’t forget this is the government that enforced it’s one baby policy which routinely killed babies who just happened to be girls. Population control is still a big concern. Allowing the very young and th elderly to meet a fairly quick end helps reduce medical costs since they consume more health care than any other segment.
    One should not be surprised to learn all those videos of China “rounding up” those possibly infected could actually be dissenters heading off to the gulag. Even the “young, otherwise healthy” MD that first broke the news somehow died as one of the few outside the greatest at risk groups.
    Regardless of the actual story behind the Wuhan virus and it’s spread, the Chinese government steps are ones that are typical of controlling dissent and whether it’s because of “not letting a good crisis go to waste” or China just having learned lessons from Tiananmen Square, they, for sure, are using this to their advantage.

    Then there’s reality. Track the spread of flus. They’re highly contagious, as contagions go. Imagine employing the same government actions we’ve seen and on the same time line. Would government responses to date have stopped the spread? Given the Wuhan purported contagious periods, the start time of a few months ago, modern travel, etc., it’s more likely millions and millions and millions of people have already been exposed? That’s how models work.

  50. Well I think the first thing our fearless leaders should announce is no airconditioning for publicly paid officials to nip a couple of global threats in the bud and show they’re serious about these doomings. I know the schoolkiddies and uni students will be applauding this urgent measure as a rebellionistas against extinction. The masks over all their gobs will be a great improvement too.

  51. I’m going to bookmark this page.

    I have a feeling it will be a great place to leave the comment “Whelp that didn’t age well” in about 3 months time, when every single person in China will either be infected, recovered, or dead.

    And once the number of active cases reaches a number so great that people who think they’re not infected flee and pour across China’s borders on foot if needed, there will be no containing the spread to the rest of the world, because many who flee will be unknowingly infected.

    And no, I haven’t read the WHO’s daily report. But I know what the graph of an exponential function looks like. I suppose I should believe the WHO instead of my own lying eyes, though, because otherwise I’m just like those AGW fellers.

  52. We are going to need a one-world government to protect us from our popular fears of possibly deadly things due to our interconnectedness. And that one-world government will be the virus. I think back on witch doctors and village elders and wonder if anything has changed except the interconnected sensitivity to fear.

  53. Like most topics today there are forecasts for this virus to be almost benign through catastrophic. The truth as usual will be in the middle. Exactly where nobody knows yet. I have read many reports including on zerohedge and many read as believable but of course cant all be accurate. Some other authors defend their position arrogantly as well as if only they know the truth. An important consideration is that amongst those seemingly concerned are some experts not usually given to exaggeration. Some from China at least have first hand knowledge.
    Comparisons to climate change are not much use. I have been interested in climate for 60 years and kept my own records from age 11. It is easy to form an opinion based on experience. One way to judge any temperature rise here in Canada where I live is simple. In Fall and Spring the temperature changes at around 2 degrees Celsius per week over most of the country. Hard to believe an additional degree or 2 would make much difference. Ironic that our prime minister is such an advocate for carbon caps when most Canadians would welcome a shorter winter. But my knowledge and experience with viruses is entirely second hand. Because of this I have to read and evaluate whatever is available and will still most likely be effective in this. As everyone else I will have to wait and see what actually happens. At that time those ” experts ” who were the closest to reality will declare they were correct.
    I remember a financial guru was once asked how he was successful. His answer was something like start with 1000 analysts and each toss a coin. Those with heads were correct in their forecast. Repeat until only a few remain and these become the experts.

    • To get an idea of the value of this article, I checked on something that ought to be easily verifiable.
      The article states that there are no bats native to that part of China, Wuhan:
      “It describes how the only native bats are found around 600 miles away from the Wuhan seafood market and that the probability of bats flying from Yunnan and Zhejiang provinces was minimal.”

      This is as false as false can get.
      A search quickly turned up a summary of bats in China, and details the over 100 species of bats that have their range at least partly in China.
      Just glancing through some of them, it is obvious that there are in fact upwards of dozens of different bats native to that part of China. Many of them are listed as widespread and existing in large numbers.
      Besides, no one who has suggested that the virus came from bats ever said anything about the bats at the market flying there. It is a market, and animals are clearly being brought from far and wide, as in most places in the world and most types of food.
      It also says that no one eats bats there…but this is clearly false, as they are known to be considered a delicacy there.
      One need not look far to find that yes bats are definitely eaten there.
      So basically every thing that is said in the article that can be checked, can be readily proven false in a few seconds.
      Sources:
      Bats in China
      http://www.bio.bris.ac.uk/research/bats/China%20bats/

      Bats as food in China:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat_as_food

      Then it mentions the specific species of bat with this type of corona virus, Rhinolophus affinis.
      And again, a quick check shows that the range of this species includes that part of China.
      Wuhan is approximately due north of Hing Kong and due west of Shanghai.

      Conclusion: Article contains obvious BS,

      • Your link to WIK does not contradict the reports that bats were not being served in the seafood market in Wuhan at this time. ( It was reported that the bats at this time were mostly or completely hibernating) Dozens of people stated that bats were not in the current market in Wuhan

        • At what time?
          No one knows how much time might have passed between the index case and the first person who got sick enough to go to the hospital.
          It seems unlikely one or two people getting what appears to be a cold of the flu would raise huge alarm bells.
          And all that time the virus was spreading, under this scenario.
          Besides, I never spoke to those points.
          The assertion that no native bats exist within less than 600 miles of that city are false, as is the assertion that no one eats bat there.
          Moreover, in the case of SARS and MERS there were intermediate hosts, as it has been theorized is the case here.
          There are many zoonotic diseases in the world, and AFAICT all of the bad and new diseases are the result of a disease jumping from animals to people.
          It is not rare.
          Every case of rabies is such an event.
          What makes SARS and Ebola and a few others so bad is that once one person gets infected, it spreads from person to person.
          When it is airborne, it can spread widely before anyone is aware.
          Long incubation, most cases being mild, and a long time between onset of symptoms, and another long time before passing to the lower respiratory infection end stage…each of these means something can spread much farther before anyone knows a novel virus has appeared and is spreading.
          This exact situation has occurred many times with various ailments, and it has been the subject of books, movies, papers, public health alerts, for decades.
          Horizontal gene transfer in a coinfected individual is not a rare or unanticipated event either.

  54. The old Chinese proverb states that a virus gently flapping wings in China has the power to dramatically affect everything on the other side of the world.

  55. Sensible article. I’m sorry, but I don’t agree that “people want exciting scary news, not accurate news”, or that citizens will make poor decisions about America’s future. Absolutely not true. Most people have common sense, and they are quite aware of fake news. To describe citizens this way is inaccurate and frankly, condescending and arrogant. The American people put President Trump in the White House, because the majority are smart, not idiots.

  56. The paper I read states that:
    “No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs
    Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we
    observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to nonsmoker
    samples. This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and
    thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and
    standardizing treatment regimen."

  57. Larry- there is no the peer-reviewed paper that proves COVID-19 miraculously jumped from species to species, then arrived at a Wuhan wet market and spread like wildfire…

    That’s just a story too. Another conspiracy theory that should not be trafficked.

    Fact is we don’t know the basics here… That said the counter-theory that the COVID-19 is a bio-engineered chimera that escaped from the Wuhan BSL-4 lab is more credible to many observers.

    Here’s the basic narrative:
    https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/

    • You think zoonosis is some ultrarare event?
      Miraculous even?
      Diseases spread between people and animals all the time.
      Public health authorities have long considered it merely a matter of time before exactly such an event as this resulted in something really bad.
      This does not seem really bad.
      Really bad is 35% of people infected ending up dead.
      Really bad is mostly healthy adults dying, or equal numbers of all ages of people dying.
      SARS, MERS, HIV-AIDS, Ebola, plague, anthrax, rabies, tularemia, West Nile Virus, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, Eastern Equine Encephalitis, Listeria, Salmonella, Toxoplasmosis…the list is endless…are all diseases that have jumped and continue to jump from animals to people.
      Influenza is a perfect example.
      It can kill massive numbers of people at times.
      Who thinks the world has seen the last widespread massively fatal pandemic?
      They used to occur far more often.
      Chances are that several that might have become one of them have been prevented from doing so by a combination of modern sanitization and medical care, and rapid response by public health authorities to prevent or limit the spread and/of impact of novel illnesses.

      Corona viral illness spreading to people in that very part of the world, and being very bad, is not even rare.

  58. People currently killed by climate change? About zero, plus or minus zero, within reasonable confidence levels.

    This virus has already killed far more people than the previous recent disease scares, and deserves to be taken very seriously. I’m going to watch the statistics from that Japanese cruise ship. That should provide something more reliable than what comes out of China. Either way, there’s not really much that can be done on an individual level.

    • I am going to be watching that cruise ship as well – from what was it? 240 or so to 335 people with the virus so far, as the U.S. is removing most of the people on that cruise ship because they are Americans. They are not allowing any one of them to fly if they have a fever. However, that seems to be the problem – people can carry the virus without having a fever and that means they are spreading it far and wide if they allow these people to get on a plane and fly to some military base to be quarantined . The flight crew should also be part of the quarantine unless they are wearing haz-mat suits.

        • Really? Not reporting them because they got sick outside of the U.S.? So if more people are found to have this virus having contracted it outside of the U.S. and they somehow get here the CDC and the government aren’t counting them? This is like the most ridiculous thing I’ve read so far …

          Guess you can’t believe everything you read about how many people on that cruise ship have this virus. Thanks.

    • How long do you think it will be before climate change is blamed for the coronavirus. It’ll be about bats shifting their range in response to changing temperatures or something – you know how these stories typically go.

  59. I read this post as the antithesis of WUWT. It reads as an ad hominem attack on Zero Hedge and any information they, or anyone else that questions WHO for that matter, post. There is information behind the headlines listed. Just looking at the last in the list I clicked through to an interview with a Professor of Epidemiology, Marc Lipsitch. Seemed like a credible interview. No hair on fire.

    Let’s be very specific here rather than brushing broad strokes of slander. You have characterized, through your post, that Professor Lipsitch is just seeking his “15 minutes of fame.”

    Do you stand behind that characterization?

  60. Re: “The great fear of the global public health agencies is that coronavirus would spread to poor nations with weak health infrastructure (those nations with strong ties to China are especially vulnerable) – from which it would spread around the world. ”
    I thought the African nations – Nigeria in particular, handled the Ebola epidemic very well. When it comes to terrifying pandemics, they’ve “been there and done that”. It’s about time we stopped patronising them.

  61. I see Zero Hedge as a ‘clearing house’ of news – especially news that other outlets might be suppressing or marginalising because it doesn’t suit their pre-ordained narrative. (And yes, I do mean the NYT)
    They see something that might be interesting, they post it usually citing the source. You read it, believe it, or disbelieve it, at your own discretion.
    I dislike a lot of the comments/commenters there, and I do wonder if a) they are just a bunch of nutters; b) they represent a (rather horrifying) groundswell of opinion; c) they are the product of a concerted astroturfing campaign to give the impression of a groundswell of opinion.
    But then again, I don’t have to read them – and mostly I don’t.

    • Correct – Tyler Durden is about 13 journalists, a kind of committee. It is a news aggregator. The toxic anti China 24×7 full nation info-warfare has the smell of regime-change tactics used by the swamp against hapless countries, turned against the USA population itself.
      But , hey, we have seen that LtCol Vindman, Wray, Comey, Clapper, Strzok were capable of doing.

      At least voters now get a taste of what other countries were put through over decades in THEIR name.

      Suck it up, or buck? What’s it going to be?

  62. “The news media are no different than McDonald’s. Both work in the free market, serving us what we want. Americans today want exciting and scary news, not accurate news. ”

    You are wrong. “… it is not “news media” it is “political-journalist complex”
    The scary news is to give more pretext for political power at expense of individual power.
    The “news media” exists to proselytize for more and more Politics. Politics is the only religion that is still belived.

  63. I have read that it is possible Asians are more susceptible to the virus due to them having a genetic pre disposition

    https://theprepared.com/blog/new-study-suggests-2019-ncov-may-hit-men-asian-people-harder/

    Also read some news today that it is possible virus causes male infertility, which if true, would have serious consequences on birth rate if it spreads

    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-latest-research-published-by-chinese-scientists-say-coronavirus-will-render-most-male-patients-infertile

  64. Upthread I cited a free scientific report that this “Wuhan” coronavirus uses ACE2 to get into cells & how Europeans have statistically less ACE2 than Asians. A commentator pointed out that smoking raises ACE2 (certainly true) & inferred that was all we can consider definitive.

    I’d like to advance the issue further for those who have commented on this post since mine. Here are the six gene variations that the “1000 Genomes Project” found potentially resulting on greater ACE2. Their reference codes are, in no particular order rs1877752, rs879922, rs1978124, rs714205, rs233575,& rs2048683.

    The percent of people of different ancestry with one of these ACE2 gene variants is different. For example Europeans in North & West Europe tested on average of 53% have one of these ACE2 variants (Caucasian British in England it is on average 61%) while Han Chinese in the south of China this rises to on average 92% (Han in Beijing it is on average 90%).

    Africans also have variable rates of these ACE2 variants. For example: Yoruba (Ibadan, Nigeria) it is on average 57%, while Kenyan Luhya it is on average 63%. And I’ll add here that for southwest USA African Americans tested it is on average 66% (similarly on average 64% for Barbados’ Afro-Caribbeans).

    • gringojay, I assume that it was my post you were referring to?
      The paper I read states that:
      “No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs
      Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we
      observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to nonsmoker
      samples. This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and
      thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and
      standardizing treatment regimen."
      I wasn't suggesting that it was the only fact that could be considered definitive, just that any comparison of Asians and Europeans must consider smoking behavior as a control.

      • Hi Phil, – Actually I was not specificly responding to your mentioned quotes. I did read your initial comment with those quotes & without a cited source I have no way to assess the context of where/who.

        Late last night I came across an excellent chart of smoking (among other features) ACE2 levels vs. “normal” levels; without any context of gene variants however. I don’t create computer files so may not be able to relocate that for the general interest, but will look.

        • Again Phil, – I came across your quote source. Authors state: ” … study … limitation[s] … data … from the normal lung tissue of patients with lung adenocarcinoma … may be different … healthy people ….”

      • Do you know if it is smoking or just the nicotine ? Lots of people nowadays use tobacco free pouches that they put in space between gum and lip. Some is nicotine that is not made from tobacco, just nicotine with some filler added to pouch.

        • Hi Stevek, – Maybe you, or someone else, can make more sense than I can of the significance of the ACE data (2012) reported in: “Assessment of renal damage using selected biochemical markers in smokeless tobacco users”; free full text available on-line.

          Cited paper’s Fig. 2 shows comparative ACE urine levels & Fig 2 comparative ACE serum levels. Text states that, in urine, there was lower ACE (37.07) in smokeless tobacco users than in non-users urine who had higher ACE (44.97). However, authors do not report any specific ACE2 comparison.

          Less renal ACE means there is less conversion of angio-tensin 1 into angio-tensin 2 [& thus less renal angio-tensin 2 that “could” be redirected to the adrenals for contributing to hypertension]. Which thus seems (to me) to imply that there is less renal ACE2 being made since there is less angio-tensin 2 forming that “should” be converted to [into the desirable vaso-dilator angio-tensin 1-7].

          Frankly I am not sure this is relevant to ACE2 levels in our mucosal/respiratory tract viral target tissue(s). My uninformed conjecture is that smoking raises ACE2 levels by interactions other than unheated nicotine molecules in tobacco.

          • Thanks gringojay. Seems my best educated guess is that smoking tobacco is riskiest. Smoking has cascade of effects leading to all types of problems.

  65. Watching the WHO public statements with deep scepticism. The head of that organisation is a disaster. He is a political animal and he seems to be playing politics in the midst of this crisis. His public statements seem more concerned with stamping out criticism of China and sucking up to the Chinese communist party than with the pandemic. I suspect that he would be entirely willing to downplay the danger for political reasons and I can’t bring myself to trust what he says.

    The WHO would do well to sack him and put an apolitical doctor or scientist in charge. They need a blunt honest person clearly oblivious to politics who can be trusted to simply tell it as it is without trying to put political spin on it.

  66. In the end, Corona is rather harmless. Healthy people will survive it. It’s mostly old, weakened people that are in danger. Maybe they should try ClO2 which is a secret weapon against many illnesses. In contrast to antibiotics, it kills only harmless bacteria/viruses with a pH value below 7 (harmful stuff has a pH value below 7) and they can’t develope a resistance against ClO2.

  67. “In the end, Corona is rather harmless….It’s mostly old, weakened people that are in danger.” Really? Then all those pictures of people in their 30’s just laying everywhere dead in China is a lie? You’re not protected because of your age. It’s going to get stronger as it mutates and like all viruses, like the flu, they won’t be able to keep up with the vaccines to stop it from causing havoc.

      • It’s not magic … it’s science … when the virus mutates it will mutate in such a fashion that it will be able to affect those it hadn’t before – meaning that it has become stronger and more resilient to attack more people. Like most infectious diseases – fewer affected shorter life for the virus – mutate to reach a larger pool of victims. That’s how it usually works so why wouldn’t work like this this time?

        • It’s science. I like these answers!

          What science is that? If every virus is mutating that way, why aren’t we all terminally ill?

          • Wow! What can I say to niceguy? As viruses mutate and people become ill – those that don’t die become immune to that particular virus – then it mutates again – people become ill, some die, those that don’t become immune to that particular virus strain – how dense does one have to be to not know this simple scientific fact?

            Sometimes when a virus is so new there is NO ONE immune to it then everyone has the equal chance of becoming ill and dying from it. If the virus, like SARS, infects only a few people it has little impact on the greater number of people who don’t hug chickens for a living.

            However, if it is like this virus, which apparently has a huge impact on a large number of people it has the probability of mutation as it passes from one host to the other much like other coronaviruses do, good example of a common coronavirus is catching a cold. Does this mean you would become “terminally ill” from catching a cold or the flu?

          • And apparently neither do you – dismiss facts – attempt to shame others – same old leftist tripe – : )

  68. Many posters here wonder if there is an environmental or even genetic variation behind the severity of the Covid19 flu. Or even smoking habits?

    The progress of the infection in Singapore – with a wealthy, clean city-state, and first-rate health care, and three-quarters Chinese but around 15% non-East Asian population, is very likely to give us useful information about relative risks.

    Joanne Nova, who graduated in microbiology at university, has a useful write up about this at her climate blog, for those like me, attempting to arrive at useful risk/reward calculations. (I was already closely following The Straits Times, the leading newspaper in Singapore.) She thinks three months is the total period to assess. And since Singapore has a tropical summer climate, I believe the situation there gives us a test case as to whether or not Northern Summer can be expected to stem the disease transmissibility, like other influenzas.

    Singapore infections have not yet gone exponential in their rise. Jo Nova concludes: “As long as the growth factor [in Singapore] is below one (in the growth of daily cases below), the growth is not exponential. However, be aware that at some point our ability to slow the linear growth and keep it under ‘1’ will be overwhelmed. It is simply not possible to do exhaustive tracking of each new case, tracing back to find the source and isolating all the other contacts. At 50 cases Singapore had one unexplained source. Is that the point nations lose control? We don’t know. Singapore might get lucky. They will be tracking hundreds of people.

    “Cruise boats aside I hope this is a pattern that stays under 1. But there is that nagging concern about untested cases and the superspreader wildcard. Perhaps Singapore was just unlucky and got one, or perhaps even the strain of virus there may be different. Mutations are high in single stranded RNA viruses so there is possibly a cloud of different ones spreading right now. The most infectious strains will win that race, we just hope they are also less nasty.”

    Thus, hope for the best, plan for the reasonable worst, is meaningful advice. Wait, watch for the basic evidence to develop, and then be personally proactive.

  69. If you read more in-depth about the effects of tobacco and nicotine more specifically you will find that chronic use upregulates ACE2 receptors only as a compensatory mechanism. This is the effect of chronically abusing any medicinal compound. Just like any other body system, the ACE-ACE2 pathway maintains homeostasis by responding to down-regulation with compensation in the opposite direction.

    In the short-term, used for an acute infectious illness, tobacco is actually a medicinal herb which lowers ACE2 receptors and decreases the chances of contracting the virus – I’m almost sure of it.

    With regard to the recent “study” showing that there were no racial differences in ACE2 found, and that the only factor found to increase ACE2 was smoking tobacco – there are comments pointing out that the inverse is true for both of these factors:

    “I second Leo Hopkins in wondering what it is about tobacco smoke that would increase ACE2 receptor sites, especially in light of other studies that indicate that exposure to cigarette smoke/nicotine upregulates ACE1 and actually downregulates ACE2, which is potentially the reason that tobacco use is associated with elevated blood pressure. And isn’t it also the case that there are legitimate, well-established differences in ACE2 allele frequencies (and thus gene expression) between those of different ethnicities? Both of these factors would appear to indicate the opposite of what was found in this review. I will be very interested to see the results of further research on this topic.”

    Nicotine is also broadly medicinal in many other ways:

    Not only does tobacco inhibit ACE2 expression, which reduces one’s chance of catching this novel coronavirus, it down-regulates cytokine production. Cytokine storms are a part of the disease progression here.

    “In primary cultures of neurons and glial cells isolated from brainstem and hypothalamus of 1-day-old rats, nicotine treatment resulted in increased expression of AT1R but decreased expression of ACE2 … In chronic cigarette smoke-induced PAH in rats, ANG II level in the lung was increased with increased expression of ACE and decreased expression of ACE2.”

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6295500/

    It also regulates the immune system and vagus nerve downstream of that, and its effects on CD4+ T-Cells suggest it can actually be strongly anti-HIV.

    “Chronic nicotine exposure is known to activate nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) in immune cells. We demonstrate a novel role for α4 nAChRs in the effect of nicotine on T-cell proliferation and immunity. In the circulation, spleen, bone marrow, and thymus, we find that nicotine promotes an increase in CD3+CD4+ cells … In particular, nicotine is found to promote a helper T cell 2 adaptive immunologic response within T cells that is absent in α4−/− mice. We thus present a new mechanism of α4 nAChR signaling and immune regulation in T cells, possibly accounting for the effect of smoking on the immune system.”

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3868899/

    HIV+ individuals have also been shown to metabolize nicotine faster than HIV- individuals. I suspect this is related to the body’s NEED for something to activate nAChR receptors in the absence of acetylcholine, and that nicotine actually proves medicinal in the case of HIV.

    “The HIV-positive individuals smoked a median of 13 cigarettes daily compared with 15 cigarettes in the HIV-negative group. The two groups had an NMR of 0.47 and 0.34, respectively (a higher figure indicates faster metabolization). The study authors stratified the participants into four groups according to their NMR and found that 35 percent of the HIV-positive individuals, compared with 17 percent of the HIV-negative people, fell into the fastest metabolization quartile.”

    https://www.poz.com/a…/people-hiv-metabolize-nicotine-faster

    Nicotine also increases white AND red blood cell counts (through an “unknown” mechanism, which I suspect is regulated by nAChR). This is anti-2019-nCoV, as 2019-nCoV has been shown to lower both white blood cell count, and in some cases (oddly) also red blood cell count.

    “Whether tobacco smoking causally affects white and red blood cells and thrombocyte counts is unknown. Using a Mendelian randomization approach, we tested the hypothesis that smoking causes increases in these blood cell indices.

    In multivariable adjusted observational analyses and compared with never smokers, white blood cells were associated with up to 19% increases, thrombocytes with up to 4.7% increases, and red blood cell indices with up to 2.3% increases in former and current smokers.

    Smoking causes increased blood leukocytes, neutrophils, lymphocytes, and monocytes, as well as increased hematocrit, hemoglobin, and mean corpuscular volume. The observational smoking relationships were long term for white blood cells and short term for red blood cell indices.”

    https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/ATVBAHA.118.312338

    Because it lowers cytokines, tobacco has been clinically shown to increase survival rates of mice infected with lethal doses of Influenza virus and coxsackievirus B3, because their lethality largely relies on inflammatory pathways.

    ” … after H9N2 infection, cigarette smoke exposed mice displayed significantly less weight loss, which might be attributed to lower cytokines and chemokines production, less macrophages, neutrophils, CD4+ and CD8+ T cells infiltration and reduced lung damage compared to the control mice.

    To further investigate the underlying mechanism, we used nicotine to mimic the effect of cigarette smoke both in vitro and in vivo. Pre-treating the primary human macrophages with nicotine for 72 h significantly decreased their expression of cytokines and chemokines after pdmH1N1 or H9N2 infection.

    The mice subcutaneously and continuously treated with nicotine displayed significantly less weight loss and lower inflammatory response than the control mice upon pdmH1N1 or H9N2 infection. Moreover, α7 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor knockout mice had more body weight loss than wild-type mice after cigarette smoke exposure and H9N2 infection.

    Our study provided the first evidence that the pathogenicity of both pdmH1N1 and H9N2 viruses was alleviated in cigarette smoke exposed mice,”

    https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15895

    Truly organic, untreated (or wild) tobacco, if only taken into the mouth and not inhaled, seems to be a very potent immune-regulating medicinal herb. One that is active against a broad spectrum of viruses, fungi, and bacteria, regulates the immune and cardiovascular systems, and restores homeostasis. It also appears to ameliorate many of the negative effects of exposure to electromagnetic fields and/or radiation, toxic substances like insecticides that affect acetylcholine, and many other forms of background pollution.

  70. Remember gp120 is an insert in 2019-nCoV.

    “Nicotinic acetylcholine receptors are fast ionotropic ion channel receptors that bind to and are activated by their endogenous ligands acetylcholine (ACh) and choline; they also bind nicotine. These heteromeric receptors (assembled with more than one type of subunit) are characteristic for their high affinity to nicotine but differ in their pharmacological properties depending on subunit composition.

    … studies have shown that nAChRs can modulate cellular processes in the central nervous system (CNS). For instance, nicotine administration can improve cognitive performance in normal subjects and produce a number of physiological effects.

    Studies performed by Bracci et al. demonstrated a significant homology between a specific sequence of gp120, the coat protein of HIV, and the putative active sites of snake curare-mimetic neurotoxins, which have the ability to bind irreversibly to nAChRs.

    Furthermore, the authors demonstrated that recombinant gp120 inhibits the binding of the nAChR antagonist, α-bgtx, suggesting that other type of receptors (such as nAChRs) can function as HIV receptors, and supports the notion that ion channels may have a role during HIV infection.

    Subsequent studies performed in SIV-infected monkeys found that reduced cholinergic neurotransmission was present in the form of a dramatic reduction in choline acetyltransferase activity, the enzyme responsible for the biosynthesis of ACh (Koutsilieri et al. 2000).

    Consistent with these observations, González-Lira et al. (2006) performed electrophysiological studies in rats and found that, in addition to motor and cognition impairments, gp120 interferes with cholinergic neurotransmission as part of the neuropsychiatric abnormalities characteristic of HAD.

    However, nicotine administration maintained these parameters near normality, supporting the participation of nAChRs in the beneficial outcome.

    An interesting proof-of-concept study was designed and carried out to evaluate if an increase in the bioavailability of ACh, through the chemical inhibition of acetylcholinesterase, was capable of enhancing the anti-inflammatory reflex in patients infected with HIV (Valdés-Ferrer et al. 2009).

    Results demonstrate that pyridostigmine (an acetylcholinesterase inhibitor) was able to modify the overactivation and proliferation of T-lymphocytes in patients chronically infected with HIV. This approach also led to an increase in the anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10, a decrease in T-lymphocytes proliferation, and the production of the proinflammatory cytokine IFN-γ.

    Moreover, recently, a 16-week proof-of-concept open trial was performed using pyridostigmine as add-on therapy in seven HIV-infected patients with discordant immune response receiving combined antiretroviral therapy, to determine whether pyridostigmine would promote an increase in total CD4+ T-cells (Valdés-Ferrer et al. 2017). Results indicate that in patients suffering from HIV+, add-on pyridostigmine results in a significant and persistent increase in circulating CD4+ T-cells.

    The anti-inflammatory activity of the α7-nAChR occurs by the ACh-induced activation of the receptor to inhibit the production of proinflammatory cytokines in macrophages, thereby modulating immune responses and the progression of inflammatory diseases, avoiding organ and systemic damage (Tracey 2009). Altogether, these studies highlight the importance of this neuroimmune tract for the well-being of healthy people and accents the α7-nAChR’s pivotal role in the innate immune response necessary to resolve inflammation.

    Another plausible medication is varenicline, a full agonist of α7-nAChRs (Mihalak et al. 2006) and smoking cessation drug that has been demonstrated to be safe and effective in patients infected with HIV (Cui et al. 2012; Ferketich et al. 2013). Results from varenicline suggest similar or even higher cessation rates than for the general population (Cui et al. 2012; Ferketich et al. 2013; Shirley et al. 2013). Thus, repurposing FDA-approved pharmacotherapeutics targeted at α7-nAChRs to treat HIV-associated diseases implies that new treatments could reach patients faster.”

  71. WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus:

    – till now was hard preoccupied with red meat:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=tedros+adhanom+ghebreyesus%2C+director-general+of+who&oq=&aqs=chrome.

    https://www.euronews.com › w…

    World Cancer Day: Cancer is increasing globally, World Health Organization …

    4 Feb 2020 · … Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in the report’s forward . … What red meat studies really tell us ǀ View  …

    https://www.beefmagazine.com › w…

    WHO calls to eliminate antibiotic use; US a target for big changes – Beef Magazine

    16 Nov 2017 · … said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of WHO, in a recent press release. … beef jerky and bacon, red meat in general and most recently, herbicides, …

    https://www.pambazuka.org › open-…

    Open letter to WHO on industrial animal farming | Pambazuka News

    On 23 May 2017 Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus of Ethiopia was elected WHO Director-General. In a letter released a head of the …

    https://www.who.int › … › Detail

    Stop using antibiotics in healthy animals to prevent the spread of antibiotic …

    7 Nov 2017 · … Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of WHO. … Consumers are also driving the demand for meat raised …

    https://abc7ny.com ›

    https://www.msn.com › vi-AACodfP

    Chicken May Be as Bad for Your Cholesterol as Red Meat – MSN.com

    4 Jun 2019 · Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus et al. looking at a man in a suit and … How to Ditch Meat for Good and Go Plant Based.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca › health

    How risky is eating red meat? New papers provoke controversy | CTV News

    30 Sep 2019 · NEW YORK — Eating red meat is linked to cancer and heart disease, but are the risks big enough to give up …

    https://www.ctvnews.ca › health

    Another tick that causes meat allergy spotted in Canada | CTV News

    5 Jul 2019 · Tick that makes people allergic to red meat spotted in Ontario … Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director General of the World Health Organization …

    https://www.globalhealthnow.org › f…

    Factory Farms Feed 3 Top Health Threats | Global Health NOW

    28 Jun 2017 · … to hand the reins over to Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, … as carcinogenic and red meat as “probably carcinogenic.

    https://www.paho.org ›

    Cervical cancer is the third most common cancer among women in … – PAHO/WHO

    1 Feb 2019 · … Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in his call to action in May 2018 at the World Health Assembly. … and vegetables and high in red meat and processed meat, …

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