Aussie Snow Holiday Property Prices Surge Despite Climate Warnings

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

In the wake of a series of good snow years in Australia’s alpine regions, property investors are increasingly ignoring dire CSIRO predictions of the imminent end of snow.

Alpine property in hot demand despite climate change worries

By business reporter Daniel Ziffer
Updated Fri at 9:43am

Alpine real estate is getting more expensive at Australian ski resorts, despite concerns that climate change will diminish natural snowfalls.

Nearing the end of a solid snow season that has seen record crowds of visitors at many resorts, there is no chill in the market.

“It’s probably a little bit surprising that values have risen again in 2019 — given the broader housing market conditions — but you’re also seeing rents rising,” said Cameron Kusher, head of research at property analytics firm CoreLogic.

“So I think that really does highlight there is growing demand for housing in those areas and it’s not necessarily just people buying investment properties.”

It does not seem to make sense — a pricey asset in a rugged environment, hours from the capital cities and heavily exposed to climate change. But investors cannot seem to get enough.

“They’ve been very good [years] actually,” said Christa Smit of Zirky Real Estate, who is based at the Victorian resort of Falls Creek.

“The alpine [market] has definitely had a resurgence over the last three years.

Modelling from the CSIRO predicts average seasons will fall by between 20 to as much as 80 days in the next three decades, potentially all but annihilating the 112-day ski season.

In the worst-case scenario that would leave just a month of skiing by 2050.

Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-20/snow-homes-not-melting-despite-climate-change-concerns/11516176

As a child I remember the first week of Fall was pretty much the end of the Aussie snow season, but lately the season seems to have stretched by at least a few weeks.

Some of that longer snow season is due to better snow management, but in recent years the season has been especially good for Aussie skiers. This year West Australia, which normally doesn’t get any snow other than maybe a few flakes which don’t settle, had the earliest recorded snowfall event in West Australian history.

I believe failed end of snow predictions will be the undoing of the global warming movement. They can fiddle the temperatures all they want, and make authoritative sounding arguments about the ocean swallowing their homework excess accumulated heat, to explain away unexpected “pauses”.

But tangible outcomes people can actually experience for themselves are far harder to disappear. It is becoming increasingly difficult for climate believers to explain away what may be a rising global accumulation of good snow years, in the context of their increasingly shrill “hottest year evah” claims.

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96 thoughts on “Aussie Snow Holiday Property Prices Surge Despite Climate Warnings

  1. It’s worse than we ever imagined! A veritable blizzard of failed predictions! Quick, another ‘climate apocalypse conference’ somewhere, and maybe we can generate enough hot air to get the stubborn climate to listen!

    • No wonder they are putting so much effort into scaring the crap out of children! What vile, immoral, incompetent imbeciles.

    • Aussie Alpine Resort/residences going up?

      When I was in the Gold Coast a few months ago it seems that water front residences are very popular there as well.
      As a matter of fact I have a friend that builds these residences and his business does very well!

      • Roger

        UK coastal property is very popular as well. Won’t coastal dwellers get a shock when the seas suddenly rise and within a year or two at the most their valuable properties are under the water?

        tonyb

  2. Just as the Climate Alarmists wear nylon and have throw-away plastic signs, drive their cars, fly to meetings, and eat meat and drink milk, so do they defy climate change and rent two week snow holidays in the doomed Australian Alps and buy sea-front houses. It’s a long time since we saw a Farce to match this one.

  3. This makes sense. If there is likely to be less or no snow in the future, why not get in now and take advantage while there’s still some good snow seasons?

    Australia is a big place. There’s no problem with having a good snow season, even a few flakes in WA, and also an on-going major drought and extreme high temperatures (where I live in western NSW) and major bushfires in coastal Qld and NSW in the first weeks of spring.

    Even with global warming, there will continue to be seasonal differences between summer and winter, and variation in weather.

    • If I believed there would be an ongoing decline in snow, I wouldn’t buy property even though the snowfall is currently good. I would rent, enjoy the snow now, and let someone else see a steady decline in the value of their asset.
      Owning usually makes little sense if you do not expect to sell it one day for at least what you paid for it.

      • There is a tax deal in Australia called negative gearing. This allows investors to deduct any losses they make on an investment property from their taxable income, including interest on loans. The place you rent to enjoy the snow now is someone else’s investment property. Yes, there’s a risk of losing in the future if the market value of the property goes down when you want to sell it, but there is also a summer tourist market. Perhaps more people will want to holiday in the cool mountain regions during long and hotter summers? (As a child in Sydney, that was when we holidayed in the mountains).

        • We have similar tax deductions in the USA, but that doesn’t make it make sense… Just less miserable. If you buy a place for $500k and sell it for $250k, that’s a $250k LOSS. Sure, you can deduct that loss, which would save you as much as $75k in taxes assuming a 30% tax rate. But that’s still a $175k LOSS.

        • @ Tom Foley

          Perhaps more people will want to holiday in the cool mountain regions during long and hotter summers?

          EXACTLY right.

          Just like in the US during the 1800’s, …… residents of New York City flocked to the private resorts and hundreds of hotels in the Catskills, Adirondacks and points in between, ….. for a week, a month or all summer long ….. to escape the unbearable “heat” of the city.

          • The “elite” (ton ?) in London left for the seaside, for their country homes and estates, and for the Bath resorts each summer.

          • @ RACookPE1978

            and for the Bath resorts each summer.

            Yes, the Roman “baths” date a fer piece back in Britian history.

            I didn’t mention it, but, …… it was also the “baths” at the hotels in upstate New York that the summer tourists flocked too. Except for the fact that they were called “springs” ….. (healing/medicinal spring water)…. and not called “baths”. The attraction was the “sulfur water” that flowed from natural springs. And that is the reason for the “names” of several towns/villages, …… such as Richfield Springs. Sharon Springs, Saratoga Springs, Clifton Springs.

  4. The end of snow has been rescinded. Now global warming is causing more snow.
    You can have your cake and eat it to.

  5. “Modelling from the CSIRO predicts average seasons will fall by between 20 to as much as 80 days in the next three decades, potentially all but annihilating the 112-day ski season.”

    There are those dooms again!
    Dooms promised because someone coded the model to run hot.

    Ask them exactly how does a slight increase in C° shorten a season?
    Considering that most ski areas are operating with a very comfortable margins of cold.

    Even areas with minimal winters are able to run snow making machines to provide snow skiing during warm periods.

  6. ”Australia is a big place. There’s no problem with having a good snow season, even a few flakes in WA, and also an on-going major drought and extreme high temperatures (where I live in western NSW) and major bushfires in coastal Qld and NSW in the first weeks of spring. ”

    This makes zero sense.

    • Why does it make zero sense? There’s a very small area of mountains in Australia high enough to get and retain snow (the highest mountain, Mt Kosciuszko is only 2,228 metres or 7,310 ft), in the SE of the continent and Tasmania. There are occasional snowfalls across southern Victoria, and even rarer flurries in WA, and some slightly higher inland localities Broken Hill (315m), and Toowoomba (691m) in Qld. Most of Australia is flat and dry.

      It’s about 1200 km (750 miles) north from Mt Kosciusko where its been snowing, to the Sunshine Coast in Queensland where the fires have been raging (at sea level). This has been occurring over the last couple of weeks (mid-September 2019) – snow in the NSW-Victorian Alps and simultaneous bushfires fires in Queensland and northern NSW.

        • The article began “In the wake of a series of good snow years in Australia’s alpine regions, property investors are increasingly ignoring dire CSIRO predictions of the imminent end of snow.”

          I responded:
          1. Predicted shortages can increase demand. The prediction of the imminent end of snow may have inspired people to take advantage of it while it’s still around. Suppose there was a prediction of the imminent end of coffee due to some disease – I’d certainly be drinking more while it lasted!
          2. Even with global warming, there will still be seasonal and geographic variation in climate and weather, so there will still be seasonal snow in high places.

          Is that better?

          • Yes much better. In other words you are stating the obvious. But I will add – ”predictions of snow shortages” are not worth the paper they’re printed on and the sooner those involved discover that the better.

      • We had snow and hail in the Blue Mountains (NSW) a couple of weeks ago. All inline with predictions of global warming.

  7. People are buying further and further out from Sydney simply because you need minimum AU$1m to buy something half decent closer to the CBD and any of the other major business centres (Norwest, Bella Vista and Parramatta for instance). Also, there is a glut of apartments in the Sydney region as well as new buildings being built substandard or with faults largely due to the deregulated (Thanks Bob “Do nothing” Carr) and self-certified inspections in the building industry where any builder can be engaged to build and then certify their own work. What could possibly go wrong there?! Oh yeah, come and see Sydney.

    • Patrick

      Bearing in mind the vastness of Australia it seems astonishing that property should be so expensive. Is it because the amount of actual usable land -for farming or living-is relatively small in proportion to the size of the country?

      tonyb

      • yup, all our best land is under tar n concrete and houses, we have very few river systems and so all our major cities and the land around are jampacked
        bringing in 80k or more immigrants per yr is also making the school house water and other services stretch to the impossible to provide stage.
        they try and force import medicos to work rural for a few yrs and there was talk of same with out own uni grad docs etc
        so why many small towns are running on bare min health services and hospitals ditto, due to the inability to GET a doc to them in spite of high wages homes and cars as extras on offer?
        you still cant run a kindergarten playgroup or enough eldercare providers either.
        seems the immigrants fear the wider areas they prefer crowded stinking noisy cities.
        suburban termite mounds with no land or privacy at utterly insane prices to rent or own(due to that same Negative gearing scam) over quarter acre blocks l;arger homes and space to move, no traffic etc. and good homes under 200k

  8. Yes , Australia is unique in having such a vast array of temperatures. We
    can go from the likes of Cains, not all that far from the hot Equator, to Hobart
    in Tasmania where it can be snowing.

    Perhaps in view of this threat of doom with models telling us about danger
    ahead with temperatures set to pass 2 C, we should apply for permission
    to be able to safely travel from Hobart to North of Cairns. After all the
    difference in temperature between these two places far exceeds this figure.

    Perhaps we should invite some of the Computer whizzes in the UN building
    , to come to the real world, such as Australia to conduct some of their
    research, September /October is a good time too.

    If so inclined they could even go skiing before the snow disappears for ever.

    MJE VK5ELL

    MJE VK5ELL

  9. So tell me one ….. just one …. investment that’s actually been directly affected by so called AGW. I’m not talking a theoretical loss, a real loss caused by actual CC. People may believe in AGW for political or personal reasons but they know a scam when they see it.

  10. During the local climate kiddies protests recently the local government funded indoctrination channel did a cutaway during the report of the city based demonstrations. The showed a bunch of kids in ski gear standing on the snow covered slopes holding up signs spelling out “climate action now!”

    The total hypocrisy and irony of the whole visual completly escaped them it seems. A bunch of rich kids who mummy and daddy took to the sloped in their SUVs, dressed in their synthetic fabric ski gear and plastics rich ski gear, standing in knee deep snow in September (making it a long season for us) all demanding “climate action” I guess they expect all this action from someone else, they sure as hell werent sacrificing much.

  11. … dire CSIRO predictions of the imminent end of snow

    Did the buyers not get the memo?
    Do the buyers not care? {Explaining that is the real story.}

    Are the buyers CSIRO programmers that don’t believe the climate cult line?
    Ironic, that.

  12. ““They’ve been very good [years] actually,” said Christa Smit of Zirky Real Estate, who is based at the Victorian resort of Falls Creek.”
    Amazing! A local real estate agent talking up prices.

    “Some of that longer snow season is due to better snow management”
    From the article:
    “Resorts say better management and snow-making is extending seasons, even as natural falls get lower.
    “We talk about ‘snow management’,” Ms Trembath said.”

  13. Here in North America and the USA, it will be popcorn-time hilarious next January-March 2020 as Democratic Party presidential candidates try to convince their voters of the urgency of global warming policies and the need to endure energy poverty while the common folk in the US and Canada experience what is likely to be the harshest, coldest winter since 1978.

    (Friends, save this thread link so you can check me on this claim next March 21, 2020 here at WUWT. I’ll wait.)

    • Hi Joel,
      Just asking, is it the Farmer’s Almanac predicting the cold winter? or something else you are refering to ? Just curious . . .

      I would sure love to see a ‘cold winter’ here in the Phoenix area, with a couple of ‘freezes’ to kill off the crickets ( . .as well as the taller branches in the ficus trees – they are getting a bit big, and need some ‘pruning’ . . . . . . 🙂 ).

      Plus would like to have good snow season in the White Mountains for some good skiing around Spring Break with my kids ! 🙂

      • The Almanacs (there are two of them) divide North America into sections to make their predictions. The Old Farmers Almanac’s forecast section is online and it’s free to look at. I live in the OFA’s Lower Lakes region, and our prediction is a warm, wet winter, which would be kind of like last year: lots of precip (snow, rain, combo) and no harsh temps (nothing below 15F.

        • Thanks Sara, I will go look. 15 degrees, that would be something for the Phoenix area !

          I have some relatives in souther Iowa, and Kansas, so I don’t mind temps like that, but only when the wind isn’t blowing . . .!

    • There are enough claims and predictions on the internet on any given day that at least one of them must come true. The difference is separating dumb luck from predictions predicated on evidence and logic.

      So I’d be interested to know on what basis you make this prediction? (I’m not being sarcastic or disingenuous, I really want to know).

    • Joel O’Bryan – September 22, 2019 at 7:52 pm

      Here in North America and the USA, it will be popcorn-time hilarious next January-March 2020 ……………………………….. while the common folk in the US and Canada experience what is likely to be the harshest, coldest winter since 1978.

      (Friends, save this thread link so you can check me on this claim next March 21, 2020 here at WUWT. I’ll wait.)

      Well now, Joel O’Bryan, I am inclined to agree with your prediction, …. inclusive from today, September 23, 2019, (the autumnal “fall” equinox) …… until next March 21, 2020, (the vernal “spring)” equinox) …… but predicting a “cold” winter is not as easy or as accurate as is predicting the “date” and the ”amount” of the yearly min/max of atmospheric CO2 ppm.

      For instance, CO2 now, Sep. 22, 2019, is at 408.47 ppm, and will continue to decrease (my prediction) until Friday the 29th and will be @ 408.39 ppm. It will then start its “wintertime” increase and continue said until mid-May 2020, reaching a max of 415.58 ppm.

      And given the fact that atmospheric CO2 only increased by 6.83 ppm from Sept 1978 (332.87 ppm) until June 1979 (339.26 ppm), means that it was below the yearly average of 8 ppm, which might have been due to a really cold SH May-September winter. So, the question is, was the May-September SH winter a “cold” one, below normal? Or a “cold” La Nina, maybe?

      And what has been the “average” temp of the current May-September SH winter, …. colder, warmer or average? Knowing that, along with your projected 2019/20 “extra cold” NH winter will directly affect the NH “summertime” 2020 CO2 decrease.

      And don’t be forgettin, ….. that iffen you are correct, and the US and Canada will experience what is likely to be the harshest, coldest winter since 1978, ……. then wintertime microbial decomposition of dead biomass will be greatly hampered due to “natural causes”.

    • “US and Canada experience what is likely to be the harshest, coldest winter since 1978.”

      Are you including Alaska? Also you mention “global”, how do you think the global average will fair?

  14. From the article;

    “Modelling from the CSIRO predicts average seasons will fall by between 20 to as much as 80 days in the next three decades, potentially all but annihilating the 112-day ski season.”

    Models all the way down, but this one is different! No, could or might or may, this model predicts it WILL fall between 20 – 80 days in the next 30 years.

  15. Snowed twice in Queensland this year, unheard of normally. I am sure the repeated heavy snow falls in the Australian Alps had something to do with the record season.
    In the sub tropics, I have installed a wood heater. Thank goodness too, it got cold.
    We froze on a trip to the northern tropics.

  16. Last summer in Sydney they were telling every dimwit who would listen that we were having record temps over summer and its all down to AGW…they forgot to mention that the temp was correctly measured in Parramatta, West Sydney by a borrowed proper thermometer on one of the ships that was passing in more or less the same spot as now, only no development then of course…and that first measurement is the hottest still on record and witnessed by several scientists to make sure everything was correct and couldn’t be argued about in the future, (now that’s foresight, the loony left could learn something from them…but wont, they pretend it didn’t happen) and that measurement was made in the summer of 1790….and the locals said at the time that the day that measurement was taken was not anywhere near the hottest day of the year and that the previous few years were, “A lot hotter” and unofficial measurements said same. Bushfires were everywhere, mainly down to constant burning of everything by the Aborigines and dust storms were commonplace enough that Sydney was known as the “Brick pit.”
    The tidal measurement at Colloroy Sydney has not budged in the last 50 year and of the two in Sydney Harbour the Fort Denison readings say bugger all in the last 140 years and slowing to nothing in the last 50 years…and the other? Says there is no tidal rise in Sydney Harbour at all and hasn’t been for a long time. These facts obviously eluded the dullards who put feverously imagined pictures of an under water Sydney up all over the place before the last election…that went on to be a major victory for the conservatives with many similarities to Trumps excellent victory against the lying odds in 2016.
    The same idiots clamour to ban plastic bags and straws even though one has only to stand on any Australian beach and will see nothing but sand, vegetation and water. Et freekin cet….

    • Ah come on now. Expert scientists need only the last 5 years of data to tell us we’re on the way to burning hell. In Canada, they just tossed 100 years of data. Who needs data when the science is settled?

  17. As a child I remember the first week of Fall was pretty much the end of the Aussie snow season, but lately the season seems to have stretched by at least a few weeks.

    How does that work? I know you like to do everything backwards and have Christmas in the middle of summer and everyone walks upside down but surely you don’t ski all summer until the first days of Fall.

    • Written by a Northern Hemisphere type I reckon. We don’t use the tern Fall here having very few deciduous trees, apart from a few imported ones.

  18. As you said.
    But tangible outcomes people can actually experience for themselves are far harder to disappear. It is becoming increasingly difficult for climate believers to explain away what may be a rising global accumulation of good snow years, in the context of their increasingly shrill “hottest year evah” claims.

    What you have to understand this is the “hottest snow evah”, it is “dirty snow”, it is not “real snow” and all sorts of other things that only make sense if you’re a real life fully paid up believing climate scamist.

    James Bull

  19. Ski seasons in New Zealand getting shorter by the decade. You would be mad to think skiing has a long term successful future in Australasia.

  20. And yet in the Swiss Alps yesterday there was a ceremony marking the end of a glacier… and yet again Swiss ski resorts have been wrapping the ones they still have in thermal blankets over the summer.

    • A glacier that only came into existence during the LIA has melted.
      Tell me again why I’m supposed to be concerned.

    • That’s not much info griff. Was it a long hike to the end of the glacier? Is that why they marked it? Which end did the mark?

    • And when I lived there Ms Griff, I was told a new ice age was approaching, and that the glaciers would march down the valleys, destroying quaint villages in their path.

      Why do you keep listening to the failed alarmists? Is it your hatred of poor brown people that causes this?

  21. On the one hand there’s Climate Belief, and on the other, there’s reality. Never the twain shall meet. And in a similar vein you have ClimateLogic™ on one hand, and reasoned thought on the other.

  22. “…and make authoritative sounding arguments about the ocean swallowing their homework…. ”

    Oh, come on, now! Give the loons a break, willya? They gotta have something to complain about.

    Someone local complained to the local newspaper that Lake Michi Gamu was overrunning the area between the lake shore and the wetland areas and drowning the wetlands, which – very long ago – were swamp land and before that, part of the bottom of Lake Michigan. But let’s not EVER let Mother Nature take its course and do what comes naturally.

    I’m looking forward to the day when the ice way up north not only does NOT melt back in the spring, but starts flowing south…. to engulf Trudeau’s living space in ice… and return the ice sheets to the Upper Midwest. But that’s just me. You all have a great week!!!

    Snow in southern Australia that isn’t going away? Well, good. The ecohippies are correct: the climate IS changing, but not the way they think it will be. I wonder how they’ll survive without heavily caffeinated quarts of coffee in oversized paper cups…. What??? I can dream, can’t I?

  23. “Canada’s global warming models threw out actual historical data and substituted models of what the temperature should have been”

    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/09/canadas_global_warming_models_threw_out_actual_historical_data_and_substituted_models_of_what_the_temperature_emshouldem_have_been.html

    “In other words, the computer models Canada uses to measure and project “global warming” are themselves based on other computer models. The expression “Garbage in / garbage out” refers to the vulnerability of all computer models to poor quality data used as the basis of their calculations. This raises the awkward question of the quality of the models used in place of actual historical data.”

    Frozen N.U.T.S. !

  24. Q1: have these modellers ever lived in the mountains, spent day after day in the mountains, gained a deep understanding and affinity with mountains?

    If not, why believe them rather than those who commune with mountains over a thirty year period?

    Q2: Have skeptics ever asked at what temperature the heaviest snowfalls occur?

    The answer is +3C, so actually you expect heavier snowfall if things get warmer, until snow turns to rain. There is nothing abnormal about heavier snowfall in a warming climate.

    As for property prices in Aussie mountain resorts, it all depends what the value offering is. Whistler in BC, Canada is pretty much a 365 day a resort, so although snow is important, it is not the be-all-and-end-all. If the resort is a 16 week a year ski resort and nothing else, then obviously prices are linked tightly to snow season prospects.

    30 years ago I worked a season in a ski resort, the third of three very odd/dodgy seasons (mine was odd with no snow until February then continuous valley level snowfall right through until late April) with huge high pressures from Russia to Spain sitting over the European Alps. Global warming propaganda was strong even then, but the 1990/91 season started strongly and continued strong. 1991/2 saw the most perfect February conditions imaginable. From then on it was back to good seasons and bad seasons. You know: climate variability. Do something about it!!

    My hypothesis: the triple big planet conjunction of Saturn, Uranus and Neptune affected climate in the late 1980s. The Uranus-Pluto conjunction in the 1960s covered the infamous 1963/4 season, after all.

    Perish the thought that solar system events could affect climate. The thought that we humans might not be responsible is surely the trigger for mass suicide gatherings!

  25. Seems like an incredible investment opportunity to me, from alpine ski lodge today to beach front property after a few short years of catastrophic sea level rise! Which way to the real estate agent’s office?

  26. Flashback 2000: ‘Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past’: According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become ‘a very rare and exciting event. Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.’
    The warmist CSIRO in 2003: The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths. At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%).

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