The Week That Was: 2019-08-31 (August 31, 2019)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: What I cannot create, I do not understand. – Richard Feynman
Number of the Week: 6,000 times more accuracy needed!
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Nothing New in AGW: David Whitehead briefly reviews several new studies which demonstrate where and how Global Climate Models are failing. The first one listed, in Science Mag, discusses how humans have been changing the face of the Earth for up to 10,000 years. There is a large project underway, ArchaeoGLOBE, which is gathering data and various areas of the globe, to include change of land use from agriculture be it animal husbandry or farming. Archaeologists have discovered that humans have modified corn for some 10,000 years.
The ArchaeoGLOBE Project was based on a questionnaire to more than 200 archaeologists with 10 distinct time points from 10,000 years ago to 1850. Data were collected for four land use categories: foraging, hunting, gathering and fishing. Such work might provide valuable information on how humans affected different regions of the globe, and what tools were used. Also, the study dispels the common notion than human impact on climate did not start until about 1850, so human impact on nature and climate is nothing new.
Another study Whitehead discusses is the importance of phosphate for the flourishing of aquatic life. Dissolved inorganic phosphate influences the growth, abundance and diversity of phytoplankton. Phosphorus is commonly regarded as the ultimate limiting nutrient, rather than other limiting nutrients such as nitrogen. The importance of phosphate became clear in the US in the 1960s and 1970s when excess phosphate and nitrogen from detergents and other chemicals caused major algae blooms in rivers and freshwater lakes. The EPA monitors water quality for these nutrients.
Phosphate is important for the carbon cycle, for which Whitehouse discusses another study, this one on the horizontal and vertical circulation of the carbon-rich waters of the subpolar Southern Ocean. For example, the Weddell Gyre, a major circulation off the continent of Antarctica, east of the Antarctic Peninsula, is within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and transports an enormous amount of carbon-containing phytoplankton away from the region. The global climate models do models do not correctly describe this carbon cycle.
The popular press continues with the fad of late August, proclaiming fires in the Amazon are destroying the “lungs of the world.” The claim is based on the misconception that the vegetation in the Amazon converts more carbon dioxide (CO2) and water to glucose (food) and oxygen than any other area.
If there is any region that deserves such a label, it would be the upper several meters of the oceans and fresh-water bodies, where sunlight penetrates. Here, algae, phytoplankton, and cyanobacteria flourish by using photosynthesis. But it is unlikely that the popular press and environmental groups will make such a correction. After all, “save the Amazon” is a far better rallying cry (slogan) than “save the pond scum.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Questioning the Orthodoxy, and Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
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Clouds – Unknown to Models?: For years Richard Lindzen has been stating that the global climate models fail to treat clouds well. His statements contradict claims by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers, such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which assert that the science is well-established, and the projections / predictions of the models are reliable. Indeed, a critical portion of the EPA’s finding that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases endanger human health and welfare is based on the reliability of the global climate models and their long-term projections / predictions.
On the website No Tricks Zone, Kenneth Richard had a remarkable post on the uncertainty in the global climate models created by the inability to understand the influence of clouds in the climate system. From the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). From its website:
“The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) was established in 1982 as part of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) to collect weather satellite radiance measurements and to analyze them to infer the global distribution of clouds, their properties, and their diurnal, seasonal and interannual variations. The resulting datasets and analysis products are being used to study the role of clouds in climate, both their effects on radiative energy exchanges and their role in the global water cycle.
“The ISCCP cloud datasets provide our first systematic global view of cloud behavior of the space and time scales of the weather yet covering a long enough time period to encompass several El Niño – La Niña cycles…”
Under Cloud Climatology with the subheading Computer Climate Models the website states:
“Because there are so many possibilities for change, climatologists must know how clouds over the entire Earth will respond. Determining that response calls for computer models of the global climate that can explore changing conditions. Climate models are sets of mathematical equations that describe the properties of Earth’s atmosphere at discrete places and times, along with the ways such properties can change. The challenge for climate models is to account for the most important physical processes, including cloud microphysics and cloud dynamics, and their complex interactions accurately enough to carry climatic predictions tens of years into the future. When contemporary models are given information about Earth’s present condition — the size, shape and topography of the continents; the composition of the atmosphere; the amount of sunlight striking the globe — they create artificial climates that mathematically resemble the real one: their temperatures and winds are accurate to within about 5%, but their clouds and rainfall are only accurate to within about 25-35%. Such models can also accurately forecast the temperatures and winds of the weather many days ahead when given information about current conditions.
TWTW wonders what is meant by saying temperatures are accurate to within about 5%. Earth’s temperature is about 288 K, or which +/- 5 percent is about +/- 14 K (= +/- 14 ºC), whereas changes in worldwide temperature averages are in the 1 ºC range. The website continues:
“Unfortunately, such a margin of error is much too large for making a reliable forecast about climate changes, such as the global warming will result from increasing abundances of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. A doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), predicted to take place in the next 50 to 100 years, is expected to change the radiation balance at the surface by only about 2 percent. Yet according to current climate models, such a small change could raise global mean surface temperatures by between 2-5°C (4-9°F), with potentially dramatic consequences. If a 2 percent change is that important, then a climate model to be useful must be accurate to something like 0.25%. Thus, today’s models must be improved by about a hundredfold in accuracy, a very challenging task. To develop a much better understanding of clouds, radiation and precipitation, as well as many other climate processes, we need much better observations.” [Boldface added]
The website is a joint effort by ISCCP, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA-GISS) and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Even if one accepts the claim that models
“… create artificial climates that mathematically resemble the real one: their temperatures and winds are accurate to within about 5%,”
is correct, the use of models to support the EPA’s Endangerment Finding is contradicted by major government entities involved in modeling. A one-hundred-fold improvement in accuracy is needed before the models are suitable for long-term projections / predictions.
As explained below, TWTW strongly disagrees with the estimates of error in temperatures. But the key point is that the modelers realize that their models are not sufficiently accurate to be used as the UN-IPCC, USGCRP, and EPA use them. See links under Problems in the Orthodoxy.
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The Greenhouse Effect – NCAR Models: NCAR is an organization sponsored by the National Science Foundation and managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. It has a total staff of about 1300 with about 80% at NCAR and 20% at UCAR. In 2018 its budget was $227 million, $166.6 million for NCAR and $50.4 million for UCAR and its community programs. 115 colleges and universities participate in governing UCAR.
The principal modeling effort is the CESM Large Ensemble Project with simulations performed with the nominal 1-degree latitude/longitude version of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) with CAM5.2 as its atmospheric component. The surface simulations cover from 1920 to 2100 and with 40 major computer runs. According to the website:
“The Large Ensemble Project also includes a set of multi-century control simulations with the atmosphere, slab-ocean, and fully-coupled versions of CESM1 under pre-industrial (1850) radiative forcing conditions (2600 years, 900 years and 1800 years in length, respectively).”
It is not clear what sources of data have been used for these multi-year runs. But the results of the 40 runs of the Community Earth System Model give a wide range of possible climates. The website states:
“With only a single model run, scientists are limited in what they can conclude when an observation doesn’t match up with a model’s projection. For example, if the Arctic sea ice extent were to expand, even though the model projected a decline, what would that mean? Is the physics underlying the model wrong? Or does the model incorrectly capture the natural variability? In other words, if you ran the model more times, with slightly different starting conditions, would one of the model runs correctly project the growth in sea ice?
“The Large Ensemble helps answer that question. Armed with 40 different simulations, scientists can characterize the range of historic natural variability. With this information, they can determine if observations fit within the envelope of natural variability outlined in the model, instead of comparing them to a single run.
“Creating an envelope of what can be considered natural also makes it possible to see when the signal of human-caused climate change has pushed an observation beyond the natural variability. The Large Ensemble can also clarify the climate change “signal” in the model. That’s because averaging together the 40 ensemble members can effectively cancel out the natural variability — a La Niña in one model run might cancel out an El Niño in another, for example — leaving behind only changes due to climate change.”
The wide range of possible climate is attributed to the butterfly effect, which was described by Professor Edward Lorenz in advancing Chaos Theory. There is a great deal of uncertainty internal to climate science when it is approached from a modeling perspective.
To make matters more complex, the modelers have increased the expected range of temperatures from a doubling of CO2 from 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 – 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) to 5.3°C (10.1°F).
“NCAR’s newest iteration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), which was released to the research community last year, is now projecting 5.3°C (10.1°F) of warming if carbon dioxide is doubled. Similar increases in climate sensitivity are also being reported by research teams operating other leading climate models, which are running experiments in preparation for the next report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).”
“’Multiple independent models are coming up with answers that are outside the canonical range from the last 30 years,’ said NCAR scientist Andrew Gettelman, who led the new study. ‘We are concerned there could be something wrong in the model, but we’re even more worried that the model might be right. This magnitude of increase in climate sensitivity increases the risk for extreme climate change impacts.’”
The research was published in the Geophysical Research Letters
“The scientists were ultimately able to show that the biggest difference comes from the way clouds, as well as cloud interactions with the tiny atmospheric particles called aerosols, are represented in the new model. While it’s possible that these representations are inaccurate and are contributing too much to surface warming, the scientists can’t yet determine that with certainty. In fact, the clouds simulated in CESM2 look more realistic than those in its predecessor when compared to observations.”
Atmospheric observations demonstrate that the models greatly overstate the influence of greenhouse gases on temperature trends. But the modelers are so focused on surface temperature trends, that they forget that the greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere. See links under Problems in the Orthodoxy
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Methane Fears: Claiming that the US government overstepped its authority in regulating methane, the current EPA is proposing relaxing some of the rules of the Obama administration. This is bringing the usual chorus of fears of global warming – methane “is about 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide in trapping the earth’s heat, according to estimates used by the EPA.”
The June 23, 2018, TWTW discussed why fears of global warming from methane are not credible. Decades of laboratory experiments demonstrate that methane absorbs radiation (electromagnetic energy) within narrow wavelengths. In the atmosphere, energy in these wavelengths is absorbed by water vapor, by far the dominant greenhouse gas. There is little remaining energy for methane to absorb and the calculations of enhanced greenhouse from methane are meaningless. If one eliminated water vapor from the atmosphere, then methane could cause minor, not measurable, warming. But the elimination of water vapor would be a greater threat. See link under EPA and other Regulators on the March.
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Fearing Deregulation: Reporters for Bloomberg had an article stating that some businesses are objecting to deregulation. This is not surprising. Business have long sought political protection against competition. Adam Smith wrote a book about it, The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776. Smith advocated that the market system, free of undue government regulations, would be a great benefit to the general population rather than the then common mercantilist system, where favored businesses were protected by the crown and certain trade groups by guilds. The language has changed, but the goal is the same – protected profits. See link under Change in US Administrations
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UN Climate Fears Week: There have been several articles on the coming UN Climate Action Summit on September 23. This will be followed by Climate Week in New York City September 24-30. The goal is to promote the UN Paris Agreement. The UN post states:
“Climate change is the defining issue of our time and now is the defining moment to do something about it. There is still time to tackle climate change, but it will require an unprecedented effort from all sectors of society. To boost ambition and accelerate actions to implement the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, UN Secretary-General António Guterres will host the 2019 Climate Action Summit on 23 September to meet the climate challenge. The Summit will showcase a leap in collective national political ambition, and it will demonstrate massive movements in the real economy in support of the agenda.”
Other parts of the press release state:
“Global emissions are reaching record levels and show no sign of peaking. The last four years were the four hottest on record, and winter temperatures in the Arctic have risen by 3°C since 1990. Sea levels are rising, coral reefs are dying, and we are starting to see the life-threatening impact of climate change on health, through air pollution, heatwaves and risks to food security.”
“The latest analysis shows that if we act now, we can reduce carbon emissions within 12 years and hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C and even, as asked by the latest science, to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”
“UN Secretary-General António Guterres is calling on all leaders to come to New York on 23 September with concrete, realistic plans to enhance their nationally determined contributions by 2020, in line with reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 45 per cent over the next decade, and to net zero emissions by 2050.” [Boldface in original]
The official sponsor of the follow-up Climate Week is The Climate Group, a UK charity. Although the sponsors include the Office of Mayor of NYC, TWTW found no direct connection to the UN. Originally, the UN was strongly advocated as an alternative to fear of war. Now, it is an advocate of fear of climate change, which has been ongoing for hundreds of millions of years, and fear of prosperity of the general public. See links under: Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda.
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Addressing a Real Threat? Recently one of the more discouraging recent activities of the military has been reports of the fear of climate change and drastic sea level rise by the Pentagon, repeated in the latest National Climate Assessment. Certainly, relative sea level rise in the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News VA-NC Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA, which includes extreme northeastern North Carolina) threatens the largest Navy Base in the US.
But the primary reason is not global sea level rise, but the MSA sinking from groundwater extraction. About 35 million years ago the area was hit by a meteor, making a large crater, which complicates the geography. However, GPS measurements clearly show sinking around two major water wells, northwest and south of the center of the MSA.
The Navy Times reports that the Navy has quietly dropped its climate change task force. Hopefully, the Navy will now address the real threat, the sinking land in the MSA. It would need to work with the political and community leaders to find a solution. TWTW still proposes that the most realistic, cost effective approach is major desalination plants, like the one being successfully used in Carlsbad, California. See link under Change in US Administrations.
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Lowering Standards: The flagship publication of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Science Magazine, dismissed Fred Singer’s rebuttal to the fawning review the magazine gave the Merchants of Doubt, which produced no evidence to back its claims. Admittedly, TWTW is not favorably inclined to AAAS.
Last week, TWTW discussed that a court in Canada found in favor of Tim Ball in Mr. Mann’s lawsuit against him for slander. Among those commenting on the litigation was attorney Francis Menton writing in his blog the Manhattan Contrarian:
“Here’s a twist that is simply beyond belief. On February 17, 2018, the American Association for the Advancement of Science — the largest professional association of scientists in the world, claiming to have more than 120,000 members — gave its supposedly prestigious ‘Public Engagement with Science’ award to none other than Michael Mann. Here is its announcement of the award. Some choice excerpts:
“’The honor recognizes Mann’s ‘tireless efforts to communicate the science of climate change to the media, public and policymakers.’ In the past year, Mann has had 500 media interviews and appearances and directly reached public audiences via social media. . .. He has also advised actor Leonardo DiCaprio, who spoke about climate change during a 2014 speech delivered to the United Nations.’” See links under Oh Mann!
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
The voting is closed and the winner who most closely meets the qualification is being selected.
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Number of the Week: 6,000 times more accuracy needed! According to the calculations made by ISCCP and NASA, to make projections / predictions the models need an increase in accuracy by 100 times the accuracy they have now. But this increase in accuracy is dependent on the claim that the accuracy of the models in temperature and wind is within about 5%.
However, John Christy and his colleagues have shown that in describing temperature trends of the atmosphere, the models overestimate the increases in temperatures trends by about 300% in the critical tropical areas. US models are worse. Thus, the ISCCP and NASA state the performance of the models is 60 times greater than their actual performance where the greenhouse effect occurs.
Using their same rough calculation procedures, one can claim that the increase in model accuracy needed for projections / predictions is not 100 times but by 6,000 times. The EPA Endangerment Finding is on shaky ground.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
New Studies Show Solar Activity Has Major Impact On Europe’s Climate, Cannot Be Dismissed
How the sun impacts European climate
By Die kalte Sonne (German text translated by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Aug 27, 2019
We have examined the possible connections among the solar irradiance and some climate indicators, viz., the global temperature anomaly, the global mean sea level, the global sea-ice extent and the global precipitation anomaly occurred during last forty years (1978–2017). In our investigation, we have observed that the impact of solar irradiance on the global surface temperature level in next decade will increase by ∼4.7% while the global mean sea level will increase about 0.67%.
[SEPP Comment: Double-checked abstract and assume it was incorrectly written. The phrase “we have observed” should be “we project.”]
Censorship
AOC-Aligned Climate Group Demands Media Silence ‘Climate Deniers’
By Tyler O’Neil, PJ Media, Aug 18, 2019
https://pjmedia.com/trending/aoc-aligned-climate-group-demands-media-silence-climate-deniers/
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/SeaLevelRiseCCRII.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
New Studies Show How Climate Models Fail
By David Whitehouse, GWPF Science Editor, Aug 30, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/new-studies-show-how-climate-models-fail/
Link to paper: How humans changed the face of Earth
By Neil Roberts, et al. Science, Aug 30, 2019
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/365/6456/865
Link to database: ArchaeoGLOBE Dataverse (University of Maryland, Baltimore County)
By Staff, Harvard Dataverse, accessed Aug 30, 2019
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/ArchaeoGLOBE
Link to phosphate paper: Biogeochemical controls of surface ocean phosphate
By Adam Martiny, et al. Science Advances, Aug 28, 2019
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/8/eaax0341
Link to paper on Southern Ocean: Reframing the carbon cycle of the subpolar Southern Ocean
By Graeme A. MacGilchrist, et al. Science Advances, Aug 28, 2019
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/8/eaav6410
Beginning of the end for climate change hysteria?
By Kathy Gyngell, The Conservative Woman, Aug 26, 2019
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/beginning-of-the-end-for-climate-change-hysteria/
Link to Christy’s findings: The Tropical Skies: Falsifying climate alarm
By John Christy, GWPF, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2019/05/JohnChristy-Parliament.pdf
It’s time to whack greenhouse gas Endangerment Finding
By Tom Harris, The Heartland Institute, Western Free Press, Aug 30, 2019
https://westernfreepress.com/its-time-to-whack-greenhouse-gas-endangerment-finding/
More fake five-alarm crises from the IPCC
“Mainstream” news outlets dutifully feature climate cataclysm claims that have no basis in reality
Guest post by Paul Driessen, WUWT, Aug 25, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/25/more-fake-five-alarm-crises-from-the-ipcc/
Morano’s 1-hour interview debunking ‘global warming’ & explaining how the climate scare became a tool for the regulatory state
By Charles the moderator, WUWT, Aug 29, 2019
[SEPP Comment: # 1 on Nature’s blacklist, video with index. Global warming is a justification for political control.]
Science Goes Up in Rain Forest Smoke
By David Whitehouse, GWPF Science Editor, Aug 28, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/science-goes-up-in-rain-forest-smoke/
U.N. ‘Solutions’ Harm World’s Poorest Learn More at Heartland Institute’s Livestream Aug. 26
By Charles the Moderator, WUWT, Aug 26, 2019
Defending the Orthodoxy
Deep transformations needed to achieve sustainable development goals
By Staff, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Phys.Org, Aug 26, 2019
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-deep-sustainable-goals.html [H/t Dennis Ambler]
Link to paper: Six Transformations to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Guido Schmidt-Traub, Mariana Mazzucato, Dirk Messner, Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Johan Rockström, Nature Sustainability, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0352-9
Climate change: Big lifestyle changes ‘needed to cut emissions’-DEFRA Chief Scientist
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 29, 2019
The Real Obstacle to Climate Action
By Kamal Dervis and Sebastian Strauss, Project Syndicate, Aug 20, 2019
“Distributional issues – not aggregate costs – are the real obstacle to the ambitious policies needed to avert possibly catastrophic climate change. Progressives everywhere must therefore unite in support of a rapid green transition that is feasible and desirable for all.”
[SEPP Comment: Highly questionable.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Has Nature Communications committed reckless endangerment?
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Aug 28, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/28/has-nature-communications-committed-reckless-endangerment/
Prepare to retreat before climate change!
By Larry Kummer, Fabius Maximus website, Aug 27, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2019/08/27/retreat-before-climate-change/
The most dangerous thing about the Amazon fires is the apocalyptic rhetoric
Moralising on social media from footballers, actors and politicians is doing harm
By Matt Ridley, The Spectator, Aug 31, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Why Everything They Say About The Amazon, Including That It’s The ‘Lungs Of The World,’ Is Wrong
By Michael Shellenberger, Forbes, Aug 26, 2019
End of the Peer Show
By Mark Steyn, The War on Free Speech, August 24, 2019
https://www.steynonline.com/9663/end-of-the-peer-show
Aussie Government: UNESCO Should NOT cite Climate Risks to the Great Barrier Reef
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 29, 2019
Climate emergency tour: Montreal edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/08/28/climate-emergency-tour-montreal-edition/
Emmanuel Macron’s climate change virtue signaling
The French president is addicted to the ecstasy of gratuitous self-righteousness
By Roger Kimball, Spectator, US, Aug 25, 2019
https://spectator.us/emmanuel-macron-climate-change-virtue/
After Paris!
G7 Success — leaders issue statement 2% of usual length — and climate sidelined
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 28, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/08/g7-success-one-page-and-no-new-climate-declaration/
Greens call G7 a Failure Because Trump Skipped the Climate Change Meeting
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 28, 2019
The Physical Impossibility of Renewable Energy Meeting the Paris Accord Goals
By Staff Institute for Energy Research, Canada Free Press, Aug 25, 2019 [H/t Jim Hollingsworth]
Change in US Administrations
Navy quietly ends climate change task force, reversing Obama initiative
By: J.D. Simkins, Navy Times, Aug 26, 2019 [H/t Tom Hayward]
Scientists fight Trump EPA ‘secret science’ proposal to exclude certain research
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Aug 27, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Protecting public health is so important, we cannot possibly let the public know what we do?]
Trump Says He’s Unwilling to Risk U.S. Energy Wealth for Windmill ‘Dreams’
By Jennifer A. Dlouhy and Christopher Martin, Bloomberg, Aug 26, 2019
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-unwilling-risk-u-154847426.html
“In response to Trump’s wind power comment, the Sierra Club called him a “climate denier.”
“He outright ignores the existence of the climate crisis, his administration is directed by corporate polluters, he believes windmills cause cancer (they don’t), and he can’t even bring himself to engage in meaningful discussions with other world leaders about how to address the most pressing issue of our time,” the group said.”
Trump Gives Businesses Deregulation Whether They Want It or Not
By Jennifer A Dlouhy, Bloomberg, Aug 30, 2019 [H/t Cooler Heads]
“Deregulatory zeal sometimes draws ire of regulated industries
“Supporters say president’s moves are unleashing U.S. economy”
Problems in the Orthodoxy
NASA: We Can’t Model Clouds, So Climate Models Are 100 Times Less Accurate Than Needed For Projections
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 29, 2019
Link to website: International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project
By Staff, ISCCP and NASA, Accessed Aug 30, 2019
Cloud Climatology: Computer Climate Models
https://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/role.html#COMP_MODS
[SEPP Comment: The number may be questionable, but the problem is real.]
NCAR’s New Climate Model Is Running Hot
Study examines possible reasons
By Laura Snider, NCAR & UCAR News, Aug 5, 2019
https://news.ucar.edu/132678/ncars-new-climate-model-running-hot
Link to paper: High Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)
By A. Gettelman, et al., Geophysical Research Letters, July 16, 2019
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083978
“A warmer climate also allows the atmosphere to hold more water vapor, which acts as a greenhouse gas and causes more warming.”
Seeking a Common Ground
How the Media Help to Destroy Rational Climate Debate
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 25, 2019
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/how-the-media-help-to-destroy-rational-climate-debate/
Real Leadership vs Climate Grandstanding
If the crisis is real, why don’t prominent individuals act like it?
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Aug 26, 2019
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2019/08/26/real-leadership-vs-climate-grandstanding/
When Harry met hypocrisy
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/08/28/when-harry-met-hypocrisy/
“Hypocrisy, according to La Rochefoucauld, is the tribute vice pays to virtue. But that formulation implies that those who are saying one thing and doing another are aware of the contradiction and at least somewhat embarrassed by it. What’s really striking is the extent to which climate crusaders genuinely don’t understand that what they’re recommending is impossible.”
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
The Phenotypic Plasticity of a South American Lizard
Piantoni, C., Navas, C.A. and Ibargüengoytía, N.R. 2019. A real tale of Godzilla: impact of climate warming on the growth of a lizard. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 126: 768-782. Aug 29, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/aug/a11.php
The Interactive Effect of CO2 and Nitrogen on Wheat Grain Yield
Hazra, S., Swain, D.K. and Bhadoria, P.B.S. 2019. Wheat grown under elevated CO2 was more responsive to nitrogen fertilizer in Eastern India. European Journal of Agronomy 105: 1-12. Aug 28, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/aug/a10.php
Physiological Responses of a Giant Mussel to Ocean Acidification
Benítez, S., Lagos, N.A., Osores, S., Opitz, T., Duarte, C., Navarro, J.M. and Lardies, M.A. 2018. High pCO2 levels affect metabolic rate, but not feeding behavior and fitness, of farmed giant mussel Choromytilus chorus. Aquaculture Environment Interactions 10: 267-278. Aug 26, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/aug/a9.php
Model Issues
The great failure of the climate models
By Patrick Michaels and Caleb Stewart Rossiter, Washington Examiner, Aug 25, 2019
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/the-great-failure-of-the-climate-models
Measurement Issues — Surface
NASA : Hiding The Heat Of 1878
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Aug 30, 2019
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/08/nasa-hiding-the-heat-of-1878/
“There was no winter in the Midwest in 1878”
A sceptic’s guide to global temperatures
By Clive Best, His Blog, Aug 29, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=9125
[SEPP Comment: Lengthy post with a number of graphs, including a global map of weather stations before 1900 shows how sparse (thin) the historic record is.]
NOAA Official : 124 Degrees In The Tasmanian Mountains
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Aug 29, 2019
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/08/noaa-official-124-degrees-in-the-tasmanian-mountains/
America is cool
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/08/28/america-is-cool/
It’s official: No U.S. warming since at least 2005
New NOAA measuring system complies with federal standards
By World Net Daily Staff, Aug 29, 2019 [H/t Bernie Kekpshire]
https://www.wnd.com/2019/08/official-no-u-s-warming-since-least-2005/
Climate Alarmists Foiled: No U.S. Warming Since 2005
By James Taylor, Real Clear Energy, Aug 23, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Taylor’s comments prompt a puzzle created by NOAA and NASA-GISS adjustments to the US surface record: How can increased urbanization cause historic temperatures to cool – particularly the 1930s temperatures?]
Rare! Sudden Stratospheric Warming in the Southern Hemisphere — cold weather coming?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 30, 2019
Changing Weather
If Dorian Hits as a Cat4, Still No Long-term Trends in Florida Major Hurricanes
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 29, 2019
New Study: Pre-1900 Rainfall Events In Sydney, Melbourne “More Extreme” Than Modern Times
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 25, 2019
Near 100F in Portland But Low to Mid 80s in Seattle. Why the Difference?
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Aug 25, 2019
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/08/near-100f-in-portland-but-low-to-mid.html
About 2.5 Million Acres in Alaska Have Burned. The State’s Wildfire Seasons Are Getting Worse, Experts Say
By Tara Law, Time, Aug 22, 2019 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://time.com/5657188/alaska-fires-long-climate-change/
Heatwaves longer, more deadly even in a 2C world
By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP) Aug 19, 2019
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Heatwaves_longer_more_deadly_even_in_a_2C_world_999.html
Changing Climate
Switching on the Atlantic heat pump
Press Release, Stockholm University, Aug 22, 2019 [H/t WUWT] https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-08/su-sot082119.php
Link to paper: Arctic closure as a trigger for Atlantic overturning at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition
By David K. Hutchinson, et al. Nature Communications, Aug 22, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11828-z
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
Slaughter of the Innocents: ‘World’s largest child sacrifice site’ discovered in Peru where 227 kids were ‘killed to stop bad weather’
By Jenny Awford, The Sun, Aug 28, 2019
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9810446/worlds-largest-child-sacrifice-peru-mass-grave-el-nino/
Changing Seas
A Stone Age boat building site has been discovered underwater
By Staff Writers, Southampton UK (SPX), Aug 23, 2019
“The site is now 11 meters [36 feet] below sea level and during the period there was human activity on the site, it was dry land with lush vegetation. Importantly, it was at a time before the North Sea was fully formed and the Isle of Wight was still connected to mainland Europe.”
Extreme mangrove corals found on the Great Barrier Reef
The first documented discovery of ‘extreme corals’ in mangrove lagoons around Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is yielding important information about how corals deal with environmental stress
Press Release by Staff, University of Technology, Sydney, Aug 29, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-08/uots-emc082619.php
Great Barrier Reef outlook lowered to ‘very poor’
By Aris Folley, The Hill, Aug 30, 2019
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/459389-great-barrier-reef-outlook-lowered-to-very-poor
[SEPP Comment: Since The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority cannot protect the reef, why not disband it?]
Sea Level Rise Dooms Obama’s New Martha’s Vineyard Mansion
By David Middleton, WUWT, Aug 28, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/28/sea-level-rise-dooms-obamas-new-martha-vineyard-mansion/
[SEPP Comment: Believe not what I say but what I do. The elevation above sea level of the property was not given in the reports.]
Alaska salmon deaths blamed on record warm temperatures
By Dan Joling, AP, Aug 23, 2019
https://apnews.com/08840c3f8efb49ba8a994a5aa740c74c
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Ice Nucleating Particles Carried From Below a Phytoplankton Bloom to the Arctic Atmosphere
By J. M. Creamean, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, July 15, 2019
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL083039
Sea ice melt in the Arctic Basin leaves an area for polar bears larger than Greenland
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Aug 29, 2019
Changing Earth
Toba Superuption: Perfect Analogy to the “Climate Crisis”
By David Middleton, WUWT, Aug 27, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/27/toba-superuption-perfect-analogy-to-climate-crisis/
Environmental change is triggering an identity switch in grasslands
Scientists discover species turnover in more than 100 grassland experiments
By Staff, NSF, Aug 27, 2019
https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=299102&WT.mc_id=USNSF_1
Link to paper: Global change effects on plant communities are magnified by time and the number of global change factors imposed
By Kimberly J. Komatsu, et al., PNAS, Aug 19, 2019
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/08/14/1819027116
Acidic Waters
New threat from ocean acidification emerges in the Southern Ocean
Press Release By University of Technology, Sydney, Aug 26, 2019 [H/t Bernie
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-threat-ocean-acidification-emerges-southern.html
Link to paper: Acidification diminishes diatom silica production in the Southern Ocean
By Katherina Petrou, et al., Nature, Climate Change, Aug 26, 2019 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0557-y
“Using large 650 L experimental tanks, a temperature controlled 40-foot container and natural coastal water, their research was designed to investigate the effects of predicted future changes in ocean acidity on the community structure of the Antarctic phytoplankton.”
[SEPP Comment: No discussion of measured pH or what is the “predicted pH.”]
Ocean Acidification Study: CO2 Damages Algae
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 28, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/28/global-warming-study-co2-damages-algae/
Link to paper: Acidification diminishes diatom silica production in the Southern Ocean
By Katherina Petrou, et al., Nature Climate Change, Aug 26, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0557-y
[SEPP Comment: The test results may not survive in real world conditions. The ocean is likely to remain alkaline.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Everyone starves, film at 2100
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/08/28/everyone-starves-film-at-2100/
Denmark halts aquaculture development over environment concerns
By Staff Writers, Copenhagen (AFP), Aug 27, 2019
Lowering Standards
Climate Catastrophe News Cabal Ramps Up
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Aug 29, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/29/climate-catastrophe-news-cabal-ramps-up/
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
If climate change controls Amazon forest fires…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/08/28/if-climate-change-controls-amazon-forest-fires/
“The pressure, needless to say, is coming from countries in North America and Europe which long ago chopped down their own forests to make way for agriculture and city-building, the fruits of which now include sufficient leisure for western finger-waggers to sit around demanding Brazil stop clearing its forests for agriculture and city-building. Which, to its credit, it has done rather successfully.”
Selective and Misplaced Outrage at Brazil’s President Bolsonaro over Amazonian Fires
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 28, 2019
There’s no doubt that Brazil’s fires are caused by deforestation, scientists say
By Herton Escobar, Science, Aug 26, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
[SEPP Comment: When did the deforestation take place?]
Annual Amazon farmland burn sets records for international outrage
By Valerie Richardson, The Washington Times, Aug 26, 2019
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/aug/26/amazon-fires-normal-agriculture-despite-internatio/
Don’t Panic: Amazon Burning Is Mostly Farms, Not Forests
Problematic deforestation continues, but the “lungs of the earth” are still breathing.
By Ronald Bailey, Reason, Aug 23, 2019
https://reason.com/2019/08/23/dont-panic-amazon-burning-is-mostly-farms-not-forests/
The Amazon is burning because the world eats so much meat
By Eliza Mackintosh, CNN, Aug 23, 2019
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/23/americas/brazil-beef-amazon-rainforest-fire-intl/index.html
[SEPP Comment: The article emphasizes beef exports to Hong Kong (24%), China (19%), Egypt (11%), etc.]
Caution: Pretty Pictures Can Fool You
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Aug 27, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/27/caution-pretty-pictures-can-fool-you/
“Hottest Bank Holiday” Is Just Normal Weather
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 27, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
How each country’s share of global CO2 emissions changes over time
By Johnny Wood, World Economic Forum, Jan 2019 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
“Less than 200 years ago there was hardly any CO2 in the atmosphere. In the mid-1700s, the Industrial Revolution, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, started a process that would have serious repercussions for the world we live in today.”
Fake News and Fires in the Amazon
Media outlets are supposed to be more reliable than your brother-in-law, but that seems less true every day.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Aug 28, 2019
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2019/08/28/fake-news-and-fires-in-the-amazon/
Firestorm of Fake News: “convenient” global hysteria about Amazon based on nothing but twitter pics
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 25, 2019
[Journalist] AEP’s Latest Flight Of Fancy–Cryogenic Air!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 27, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/08/27/aeps-latest-flight-of-fancy-cryogenic-air/
Climate change melts 12.5bn tons of ice in Greenland 50 years earlier than predicted–Telegraph
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 29, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
CNN: Trump is Worse than Hitler, Mao and Stalin Combined Because Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 25, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
UN Climate Action Summit 2019
Press Release, UN Staff, Accessed Aug 28, 2019
https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/un-climate-summit-2019.shtml
3 weeks to go til Climate Propaganda Week starts
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 26, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/08/3-weeks-to-go-til-climate-propaganda-week-starts/
The Coming Climate Change Propaganda Tsunami
By Tom Harris and Jay Lehr, The Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, Aug 30, 2019
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-coming-climate-change-propaganda.html
‘Eco-anxiety’ over climate change causing stress, panic in millions, experts say
By Josephine Chu, Medill News Service, UPI, Aug 28, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Climate hysteria is a great opportunity to teach children to ask questions
By Sanjeev Sabhlok in Seeing the Invisible, Via Times of India, Aug 25, 2019
BBC Using Proms to Frighten Children about Climate Change
By Hannah Furness, The Telegraph, Via GWPF, Aug 27, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/bbc-using-proms-to-frighten-children-about-climate-change/
[SEPP Comment: Building the most cynical generation ever?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Climate Crusading Youngsters Erupt After DNC Officials Reject Global Warming Debate
By Chris White, Daly Caller, Aug 22, 2019
https://www.dailycaller.com/2019/08/22/climate-change-dnc-biden/
Questioning European Green
Is Hydrogen A Solution?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 26, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/08/26/is-hydrogen-a-solution/
Now you can pay to bury charcoal in a quarry to allay your ‘green guilt’ – but first it has to be imported from Namibia
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 30, 2019
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Rare earths are contested ground between US and China
By Staff Writers, Sino Daily, Aug 25, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://www.sinodaily.com/afp/190825031645.939ms1ug.html
Sustainability: Ideology versus Reality (Part III: The Big Picture)
By Paul Driessen, Master Resource, Aug 28, 2019
Part II: Wind Turbines,
By Paul Driessen, Master Resource, Aug 27, 2019
Part I: Biofields and Solar
By Paul Driessen, Master Resource, Aug 26, 2019
Fire retardants are great at killing forest fires, fish
By Philip Bump, GRIST, Jun 19, 2012
https://grist.org/pollution/fire-retardants-are-great-at-killing-forest-fires-fish/
Litigation Issues
Stormy Weather In Solarville: Amazon Joins Walmart In Saying Its Tesla Solar Panels Spontaneously Ignited
By Charles the Moderator, WUWT, Aug 26, 2019
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Trump administration proposes weaker monitoring of major greenhouse gas
By Miranda Green and Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Aug 29, 2019
CEI and other free market groups submit comments on CEQ’s NEPA Guidance
By Marlo Lewis, CEI, Aug 27, 2019
https://cei.org/blog/cei-and-other-free-market-groups%C2%A0submit-comments%C2%A0-ceqs-nepa-guidance
Energy Issues – Non-US
Venezuela, China, Russia – Oh My
By Rick Manning, Real Clear Energy, Aug 14, 2019
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2019/08/14/venezuela_china_russia__oh_my_110466.html
Energy Issues – Australia
Basslink cable out again, costing Victorians more as prices rise
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 28, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/08/basslink-cable-out-again-costing-victorians-more-as-prices-rise/
Submission due for the West Australian EPA on Monday
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 30, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/08/submission-due-for-the-west-australian-epa-on-monday/
“It must ‘regard’ three principles:
“The precautionary principle — the wholly unscientific idea that dangers we can’t be sure of must be avoided, and which is only selectively applied to politically convenient issues.
“The principle of intergenerational equity.
“The polluter pays principle.”
[SEPP Comment: What about “mental pollution”? Such as government entities misleading the public with unvalidated models and unsubstantiated “science?”]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
How Much Crude Oil Has The World Really Consumed?
By Julianne Geiger, Oil Price.com, Aug 20, 2019
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Much-Crude-Oil-Has-The-World-Really-Consumed.html
Pipeline Deal Means More U.S. Natural Gas for Mexico Power Plants
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag. Aug 28, 2019
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Russia launches floating nuclear reactor in Arctic despite warnings
By Andrea Palasciano, Moscow (AFP), Aug 23, 2019
Trump, Nuclear Bombs and Hurricanes
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Aug 27, 2019
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2019-08-29T07:34:00-07:00&max-results=1
Nuking Hurricanes
By Roy Spencer, His blog, Aug 26, 2019
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/nuking-hurricanes/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Body-Slamming The Poor! New Studies Show Renewable Energies “Have Virtually Doubled The Price Of Electricity”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 28, 2019
Link to paper: Are renewables affecting income distribution and increasing the risk of household poverty?
By Diogo Santos Pereira, et al. Energy, March 1, 2019
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544218325738
Energy & Environmental Newsletter: August 29, 2019
By John Droz, Jr. Master Resource, Aug 29, 2019
Harvard study finds that wind turbines create MORE global warming than the fossil fuels they eliminate – and the same is true for scooters and electric cars
By Ethan Huff, Natural News, Aug 26, 2019
https://www.naturalnews.com/2019-08-26-wind-turbines-create-more-global-warming.html
Link to paper: Climatic Impacts of Wind Power
By Lee Miller and David Keith, Joule, Oct 4, 2018
https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(18)30446-X
[SEPP Comment: By mixing layers of air near the surface.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Has Flying Become More Eco-Friendly Than Driving?
It depends on the traveler.
By Daniel Gross, Slate, July 15, 2014 [H/t Roy Spencer]
https://slate.com/business/2014/07/driving-vs-flying-which-is-more-harmful-to-the-environment.html
Link to report: Making driving less energy intensive than flying
By Michael Sivak, U. Mischigan, Transportation Research Institute, No Date (2014?)
http://www.umtri.umich.edu/our-results/publications/making-driving-less-energy-intensive-flying
France climbs aboard hydrogen train revolution
By Staff Writers, Toulouse, France (AFP), Aug 29, 2019
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/France_climbs_aboard_hydrogen_train_revolution_999.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Ditch cars to meet climate change targets, say MPs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 26, 2019
New Report: Electric Cars have ‘Higher CO2 Emissions’
By Staff, The Australian, Via GWPF, Aug 26, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/new-report-electric-cars-have-higher-co2-emissions/
Michael Mann Refusers To Produce Data, Loses Case
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, Aug 24, 2019
Michael Mann “Hockey Stick” Update: Now Definitively Established To Be Fraud
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Aug 26, 2019
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Scientific American Says Vegetables Are Toxic, Sugary Snacks
By Alex Berezow, ACSH, Aug 20, 2019
Tears for the climate (or to boost their social status?)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 29, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/08/tears-for-the-climate-or-to-boost-their-social-status/
“…the $2.5 million-dollar study of The Emotional Labor of Climate Scientists.”
[SEPP Comment; Do climate scientists think like teenagers?]
The Tear-Stained Flogs of Climate Science
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Aug 28, 2019
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2019/08/the-tear-stained-flogs-of-climate-science/
ARTICLES
1. A Famine of Fact at U.N. Climate Panel
The IPCC sounds an alarm about food production, but another U.N. agency’s data show it’s a false one.
By James Taylor, WSJ, Aug 30, 2019
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-famine-of-fact-at-u-n-climate-panel-11567201352
SUMMARY: The director of The Heartland Institute’s Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy writes:
“Global crop production sets new records virtually every year. That didn’t stop the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from publishing an alarmist report Aug. 8 that suggests global warming has devastated crop production and threatens food shortages.
“‘Climate change . . . has adversely impacted food security and terrestrial ecosystems as well as contributed to desertification and land degradation in many regions,’ the report asserts. ‘Warming compounded by drying has caused yield declines in parts of Southern Europe. Based on indigenous and local knowledge, climate change is affecting food security in drylands, particularly those in Africa, and high mountain regions of Asia and South America.’
“At the same time, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization reports that new records were set for global corn, wheat and rice production five years running through 2017, the most recent year for which data are available. How is that possible?
“The IPCC report parses words and engages in semantic tricks to give readers a false impression of declining global crop production. Note the reference to declining yields in ‘parts’ of Southern Europe. The report doesn’t mention that yields are increasing in Southern Europe as a whole. What sense does it make to blame declining yields in a small portion of the world on global warming without crediting global warming for global gains?
“The IPCC claims that ‘indigenous and local knowledge’—as distinct from objectively quantifiable data—supports its claim of declining food production in ‘drylands’ of Africa, Asia and South America. Yet data show crop yields are increasing throughout all three continents and in almost all the nations characterized by drylands.”
Mr. Taylor concludes with organizations making false claims.
***********************
2. Bernie’s Green Leap Forward
Cost: $16 trillion. Fracking: banned. Oil CEOs: in jail.
Editorial, WSJ, Aug 25, 2019
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bernies-green-leap-forward-11566761328?mod=hp_opin_pos_2
SUMMARY: The editorial starts:
“Bernie Sanders published his version of the Green New Deal last week, and it’s written with all the realism voters have come to expect. Start with its price: ‘an historic $16.3 trillion.’ That’s 10 times Joe Biden ’s climate plan, which is wild already. For the record, America’s annual economy is about $21 trillion.
“Mr. Sanders says climate change ‘shares similarities with the crisis faced by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the 1940s,’ when the U.S. ‘within three short years restructured the entire economy.’ Oh, the good old days of coffee and meat rationing. Maybe that isn’t what Mr. Sanders has in mind, but he pledges to declare a national emergency and push through ‘a wholesale transformation of our society.’
“To start, he’d switch electricity and transportation to 100% renewables by 2030. He would ban fracking; ban drilling offshore and on federal lands; ban ‘imports and exports of fossil fuels’; cancel oil pipelines already being built; and halt permitting of ‘new fossil fuel extraction, transportation, and refining infrastructure.’
The key points are [summarized]:
“Nuclear power would be phased out. ..”
“Mr. Sanders will make railroads retrofit their ‘coal and oil bomb trains.’ “
“To keep the rest of business in line, the Treasury and the Environmental Protection Agency would ‘monitor investments and actions made around the globe.’ “
“Workers in the fossil-fuel industry would be given a ‘just transition,’ “
“Let’s not ignore the many spending line-items in Mr. Sanders’s agenda:
• $2.2 trillion to help small businesses and families in ‘weatherizing and retrofitting.’
• $2.1 trillion to help companies and families ‘trade in their fossil fuel-dependent vehicles for new electric vehicles.’
• $607 billion for a ‘regional high-speed rail system.’
• $527 billion to offer ‘free, universal school meals,’ as well as to expand food stamps. This is part of his Green New Deal ‘because the cost of energy and food are so intertwined.’
• $407 billion to ‘replace all school and transit buses with electric buses.’
• $216 billion for truckers to ‘replace all diesel tractor trailer trucks.’
• $36 billion to help people ‘transform their lawns into food-producing or reforested spaces.’
The editorial continues:
“At some point the eyes glaze over. Yet there’s much more, from spending on broadband internet to money for ‘farmers of color.’ Bernie’s plan, at least on our office printer, runs to 37 pages. (Sorry, trees.)
“The virtue of all this for Democratic voters is that it shows what Bernie’s Manichaean socialism would entail as he unleashes the federal government to fine-tune every aspect of American life. Joe Biden’s $1.7 trillion climate plan is a fever dream. Mr. Sanders makes him look almost reasonable.”
Don’t mention the cat 5 hurricane? 5th in 4 years, strongest ever in the Atlantic?
Not even a small article denying that warming does not contribute to cat 5 storms?
I’m disappointed! 🙂
Don’t forget that 12 1/2 years major category hurricane landfalling drought that ended in 2017….
Also ignore, that so far this hurricane season is below average statistically.
You need to stop making embarrassingly dumb and dishonest comments.
I might add that the small air temperatures increases we have experienced would have little impact on sea surface temperatures SST. SST is the key factor in hurrricane formation The volumetric heat capacity of water is 3000+ times that of air
Griff would then have nothing to say.
That was meant for Greta, a valuable life lesson missed.
That’s bullshit. There have been much worse hurricanes in the Atlantic and there have been multiple major hurricanes in the past in the same season.
BTW, Dorian is currently a Cat 4 and appears to be weakening.
“Such models can also accurately forecast the temperatures and winds of the weather many days ahead when given information about current conditions.”
Really? Many days ahead? They can’t even forecast the track of a hurricane in the Atlantic “many days ahead”. An event of this magnitude should be able to be handled completely by the models far into the future. The fact that they can’t calls the statement above into question.
Bernie’s Green Leap Forward is hilarious.
He should just be left alone to to be ridiculed by every member of the US public other than a few zealots.
‘The first one listed, in Science Mag, discusses how humans have been changing the face of the Earth for up to 10,000 years.’
I don’t think the face noticed. 58,000,000 square miles of dirt. 2,000,000 people with stone and bone tools.
Gamecock
September 2, 2019 at 6:00 am
The selected statement that you comment at, is one of the most fast spinning plates that AGW cabal has employed, officially. It is officially one of the most highlighted point and position taken from-within and since IPCC AR5.
But still in the same time another fast spinning plate has being utilized by AGW sillies in a desperate attempt to maintain the “validity” of Anthropogenic CO2 emission effect in the consideration of CO2 concentration.
The spinning plate that enforces, regardless of anything else there, the climate destruction or climate disaster due to human emissions.
By claiming this to be indisputable, regardless of anything else there, in the main proposition of this fast spinning plate, where every thing and any thing in terms of climate consideration, before 1850, happened to be and was a constant, or placid in terms nature and man also.
See these to plates spin very fast;
and very much potential still keep being applied to both.
But these two plates spin opposite to each other, and very much non compatible to each other, in concept and otherwise.
These two plates can not touch each other, as if these do, these do and will crush.
It can’t be had both ways, where one contradicts the other, and where and when both definitely non compatible with each other.
Kinda of a silly paradox there…offered through such claims
And one of these plate spinning officially has being forwarded, highlighted, supported and uphold, strongly,
within the merit and main substance of IPCC AR5.
Quite an academically officially standing point up to this moment in time.
The main question here that could arise;
“Which is which, as to be considered with some proposed value for consideration, as both can not apply in the same time and within the same line of rationale and logic,??!!”
And when and where one thing leading to another;
Are these academics so daft, blind or dumb to such silly contradiction or paradoxes put forward in the scientific subject… or are these “guys” really insensible and really irresponsible in consideration of their positions of duty and responsibility that comes with all that??
Still not very much sure there, which is which!!
cheers
We still only occupy 3% of the earth surface. Somehow I think you would be had pressed to find much man made change, that would affect anything in the other 97%
‘The EPA monitors water quality for these nutrients.’
WHAT ?!?! The EPA doesn’t do monitoring.
For quite a while , one of my memes has been
I won’t claim to understand that which I haven’t implemented
sort of an update on Feynman’s quote .
It’s why I’ve spent my life since grad school implementing environments which put APL at my finger tips .
http://cosy.com/Science/NotationIverson.jpg
Satellite photo, state of arctic sea ice Sept 1st..
https://go.nasa.gov/2PBtSWC
‘Alaska salmon deaths blamed on record warm temperatures’
‘The deaths should not be a surprise because climate models have for years forecast unhealthy Alaska river temperatures for salmon’
Climate models forecast river temperatures ?!?!