Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to Bob Ward writing on the London School of Economics website, if we don’t name climate change induced heatwaves where temperatures exceed 82F, people won’t realise how deadly they are.
Is it time to start naming deadly heatwaves?
Commentary 23 July, 2019
Bob Ward
Policy and Communications DirectorA failure by the media to convey the severity of the health risks from heatwaves, which are becoming more frequent due to climate change, could undermine efforts to save lives this week as temperatures climb to dangerous levels.
Based on the experience of the last three summers, during which more than 2500 people across England were killed by heatwave conditions, hundreds of vulnerable people could die across the country in the coming days.
Public Health England has estimated that there were 863 “excess deaths” (PDF) during three heatwave periods last summer, which was the warmest on record in England.
…
The Met Office started in 2015 to name storms that were likely to have a significant impact in order to “aid the communication of approaching severe weather”.
Although heatwaves do not receive official names, a hot spell across parts of Europe during summer 2017 was nicknamed ‘Lucifer’ (PDF).
Far more people have died in the UK from recent heatwaves than from storms, so it should be uncontroversial to start applying names to both.…
A heatwave officially occurs when a location records a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold, which varies by UK county between 25 and 28 degrees Celsius.
By contrast, the ‘Heat-health watch’ on the Met Office’s website lists “heatwave threshold values” between 28 and 32 degrees Celsius for different regions of the UK.
The Met Office’s website does, however, point out that climate change is increasing the frequency of heatwaves in the UK.
Read more: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/is-it-time-to-start-naming-deadly-heatwaves/
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Where I live on the edge of the tropics, if the Australian MET started naming individual days or weeks when temperatures soar over 82F, they would run out of names.
While 863 or 2,500 excess heat deaths is a tragedy, Britain should probably be more worried about the massive spike in winter deaths, 50,000 excess winter deaths which occurred last year according to official figures, and the rampant British green energy fuel poverty which makes the elderly and other people with low incomes hesitate to switch on their air conditioners or heaters.
The northern Gulf of Mexico just had a July norther. Apparently, I missed the name. Texas Hill County down in the 60s at night, it’s called relief.
The Australian Open tennis competition is regularly played in temperatures of 40C +, the earlier rounds on open courts – just normal summer weather. I often spend time in Malaysia – If the temperature fell below 30C, everyone would be rugging up.
A significant heat wave, from the viewpoint of most Australians, would not cut in until at least 45C max and 32C min, with the overnight temps having the most effect.
What kind of snowflake persona has problems with 28C? Duh!
In Salt Lake City, (according to the Weather Channel), the average daily maximum temperature in July over the past 30 years is 90 F, so that if we took Bob Ward’s suggestion, the entire months of July and August, and parts of June and September of every year would be named “heat waves”. Around here, we should name summer days when the temperature does not reach 82 F as Cold Front Day Alpha, Beta, Gamma, etc.
Bob Ward should take Shakespeare’s advice and “Fear No More the Heat of the Sun”.
Does anyone know if they still have egg frying contests on the sidewalk in front of City Hall like they did when I lived there for a bit (censored) years ago?
Or “To be or not to be”, and choose the second.
South of them, in Phoenix, they call it Desert Living. The first clue that it’s going to be hot is that you are surrounded by desert.
We must name deadly perfect weather waves!
The last heatwave could be named AC 247 to acknowledge the cooling effect of available, reliable energy generators.
It was 90°F near Marshall, TX today and felt pretty good. A little warm in direct sun but fine in shade. Nice breeze, too.
Looney tunes Ward.
Tell him we’ll name heat waves just as soon as they reach the deadliness of the most deadly cold spells.
As in; when hades freezes over.
Fishing in the Bahamas, days in the 80s°F, nights in the 70s °F.
Imagine that; ‘that’s all folks’ Ward wants to term paradise as deadly heat waves…
If 82F for three days straight is a heatwave, then the south-central U.S. lives in a summer-long heatwave.
82F is considered mild weather around here. Of course, that’s probably because we are used to these temperatures, and that’s because we experience much higher temperatures than just 82F.
Around here a heatwave is 100F or over and lasts at least a week and more than likely several weeks.
In 1936, Tulsa Oklahoma had 60 days straight of 100F or higher temperatues with about a dozen of those 60 days at 110F or higher and four of those 60 days were 120F.
Now *that’s* a heatwave! 🙂
Think of what the Alarmists would be saying if that kind of heatwave were happening today!
“In 1936, Tulsa Oklahoma had 60 days straight of 100F or higher temperatures ”
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Bovine excrement.
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Notice how 26 becomes 60:
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https://www.tulsaworld.com/archives/served-up-dust-bowl-record-heat-wave/article_5e1f5742-1b21-59d3-ae6c-3813f30dccb0.html
” four of those 60 days were 120F.”
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Additional bovine excrement.
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“The hottest temperature ever recorded in Tulsa came during that stretch: On Aug. 10, 1936, the thermometer hit 115 degrees.”
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(same article)
Well, I’m just going by what my local meterologist out of Tulsa said a few months ago. Perhaps he was speaking about the hottest recorded temperatures in Oklahoma that year, and not specifically Tulsa, but those were the numbers he gave, although I’m not sure if he said 60 “straight” days over 100F or not.
It appears my weatherman must have been referring to Altus, Oklahoma rather than Tulsa.
Here are a couple of good links that explain the extremes that took place in 1936 in the United States and Canada. Altus, Oklahoma and its 120F temperatures are mentioned in the article.
https://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/almanac/arc2006/alm06jul.htm
“August saw the center of heat slip southward over Oklahoma. Altus, Oklahoma’s highs averaged 109.8oF (43.2oC) for the month, peaking at 120oF (48.9oC) for the second time that summer on 12 August — the same day as the Texas state record high was set.”
end excerpt
https://www.almanac.com/extra/summer-heat-wave-1936
“In the vast Dust Bowl region that spread from North Dakota southward into Texas, with its heart over Kansas and Oklahoma, black-dust blizzards had been common since about 1932. The heat wave of 1936 that broke all records in 15 states during July and August was the final blow to many midwestern farmers who had fought against economic hardship and unparalleled heat and drought.”
end excerpt
The 1930’s were some of the hottest years on record. It wasn’t just 1936. There is no comparison with the mild summer weather we are experiencing today.
Even here in Northeastern Ohio with Lake Erie to help moderate temperatures, a summer with one or more weeks of 82F or above days is a common occurrence. They seem really determined to lower the threshold for Killer Heat Waves.
Sixty straight days over 100F would be a short, mild summer in places like Phoenix and Casa Grande, Arizona. Growing up in Tucson we routinely played golf once or twice a week in 100F++ weather all summer. And high school football practice began in August. You have not lived until you’ve run 1000 yards of wind sprints in full pads under the Arizona sun at 105F. Funny, I don’t remember any of my team mates dying from the heat. Of course we were young and dumb and didn’t know that 100F should melt all the little snowflakes we were. Not!
Why 82? Why not use body temp of 98.6 as the arbitrary artificial panic point for the press?
And here in Richmond the weather guessers have been celebrating the 84-86F cool down from 100 plus. I suppose it was a matter of perspective.
The average high temperature here is >81 from June-September. It’s called spring and summer.
82 isn’t a heat wave…it is a thermostat setting.
My thermostat her in the Central Valley of California is set at 80. We are expecting highs of about 104 and 108 the next 2 days. That is no heat wave. Give me a high of 105 or higher for 5 straight days, then we can start talking about a heat wave. Good grief, 82 is a pleasantly cool spring day.
It’s “above normal”, and well within the normal range. Obviously, too hot. A progressive (i.e. monotonic) condition forced by anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
If we are going to get into the business of naming weather events to help draw people’s attention to (scare) them we should in the name of fairness and balance name the cold periods likewise. That way estimated mortality statstics could be associated with each. While that should help scare people about the dangers of excessively hot periods it ought to justifiably terrify them about the dangers of cold.
To be fair, we don’t really do domestic a/c in the UK, unless it’s to help dry out our damp walls.
Names like “Beach-Time” would be handy, so people can synchonise their outdoor plans to match the warm weather. In winter we already get names such as “Beast from the East” to make sure people stay indoors.
Catastrophic Heat Waves …
Wilburforce
Gertrude
Gaylord
Prudence
Dick
Moon-Unit
Adolf
Beyonce
Barney
Ethel
Cecil
Here in the Edmonton area of AB it got up to 82 degrees F the other day for one day. I think there was one other day this year that it got that hot. Most of the rest of the time it’s been cold and wet. Our average normal temperature should be around 20 to 24 degrees C for this time of year. When it starts getting up to 82 F in the winter time around here, I might start taking the seriously.
Here in sunny Phoenix, Arizona it’s 113 F and I just got home from work 26 miles from home. And I commute every day on a motorcycle with full protective gear. And have for years. It’s nothing. In fact, the warm weather here is wonderful. I could go on; but wife is bugging me to take the dogs on a walk. 113 F. It’s just fine.
Yeah, I used to spend a lot of time in Phoenix, and I’ve noticed you’re in a cooling regime. 128 in June in 1994 as I recall. It persisted through July, although not that hot, but it did teach me not to rent a convertible again.
Assuming temps above 82 degrees was deadly (as others have noted, here in S Carolina we think 82 is gloriously cool) what would be the benefit of attaching a “name” to a “heat wave”?
Bob and his fellow alarmists already dominate the MSM when the temperatures rise above their comfort level.
“Golly Gee, Martha, here comes FRED!”
When Leftists want to start wanting to name days over 82F (28C) to scare their useful idiots cultists, you realize the CAGW Hoax is officially dead….
In a debate, whenever someone starts yelling and name calling, it means the wheels have fallen off their argument, and they lost….
Yelling, screaming, hand waving, Leftist idiots glueing themselves to government buildings, manipulating empirical raw data, prophesying human extinction in 12 years, proposing $100 trillion Green New Deals, naming days of 82F, etc., are all examples that Leftists are corrupt, delusional, foolish and have lost their collectivist minds…
CAGW is dead.
now theres a thought…what perfect weather for the ex reb mob to stick emselves to a road;-))))
bet theyre all at the beach or visint the malls or mates with fans or aircons
I think we should just give all the 82 degree and above days the same name, “Bob.”
Easy to spell. Easy for anyone to read forwards or backwards. Easy to report on. “Well, Bob is back today and will probably stick around for the next two days.”
What about Luke-warm?
I can imagine what the ‘right’s organizations will say when “Wendy is really hot” appears in the local newscast. The LGBTQ… folks will also get into the act for equal ‘rights’
I used to drive one of those – great little sports car, the MGBGT
82 is jacket weather here in Arizona.
82 degrees (or 28 for the rest of the world) is not a heatwave; it is a paradise! I would die happy if every single day was 82 degrees. No, a heatwave is when the temperature exceeds 97F and when the winds are still and the humidity high. Anything less than that is not so bad. The last so-called heatwave we had I kept saying to everyone it was not so bad. There were fairweather clouds, no haze, and a steady breeze all day. Yeah, it got to 98 degrees. Still didn’t stop me from cutting the grass in the hottest part of the day, and I wasn’t using a riding mower either.
You want a heatwave … about 30 years ago (I forgot when) we had 5 straight days over 100F. Under 10 years ago but over 5 years ago (I forgot when) we had more days than that at about 105F each day. And there was no wind and no clouds but the sky was murky from the haze. That was the year my AC went bad from old age and my circumstances didn’t allow me to replace it until the next year. And, of course, because DuPont Chemical’s greed, Freon was banned. Never you mind that the gas is too heavy to make it to the ozone hole and thus unable to destroy the ozone layer like DuPont claimed. I’m sure it was not a coincidence that the patent for Freon was expiring but DuPont’s patent for “Puron” was brand new. But I digress …
We were in England last year during May. The weather was lovely several days got over 80°. The Britishers were suffering mightily and com[paling about the heat. We said bah, this is a lovely day in May. We will tell you when it gets hot.
However, I think some of their problems with warm weather are self inflicted. They simply do not have enough ice around with which to make cold drinks. And, what is worse, warm beer.
Nothing wrong with relatively warm beer. And most people here don’t complain about the heat when it’s 80f
If you don’t understand what is wrong with warm beer, you will never understand how to cope with warm weather.
Well, we named Florida Florida already so they can’t use that one.
My god, the number of people who die down here every year from the temperature being over 82°F is insane!
Or maybe I’m dividing by zero on that one.