Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A new study suggests that by 2050 people in Northern states might enjoy real Summers.
Cities of the future: visualizing climate change to inspire action
Our Climate Future
Millions marching the streets, daily articles in every newspaper and heartfelt pleas: never before has the topic of climate change been so omnipresent. The problem: We only have 11 years until passing the point of no return. If carbon emissions remain unabated, the Earth will be 1.5° C warmer by 2100 and the costs of climate change under a business as usual scenario will exceed $12 trillion by 2050. But what does this mean?
The imminence of the climate threat requires unified actions across all sectors of society. However, a growing body of evidence suggests that facts and data, which are often hard to understand, do not necessarily persuade people to act. Behavioral change is much more likely to be inspired by visualizations that make climate issues tangible.
Introduction
With our analysis, we aim to do just this. Rather than describing quantitative change variables, we paired the predicted climate conditions of 520 major cities in 2050 with analogues conditions of cities around the world today. We thereby demonstrate concrete scenarios for the future of the life in those cities. By making data relatable, we hope to motivate citizens and policy makers to adapt their decision making accordingly.
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Read more: https://crowtherlab.pageflow.io/cities-of-the-future-visualizing-climate-change-to-inspire-action
If you wade through their tedious web presentation you finally get a website, which after a little navigation yields the actual study;
Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues
Published: July 10, 2019
Jean-Francois Bastin , Emily Clark, Thomas Elliott, Simon Hart, Johan van den Hoogen, Iris Hordijk, Haozhi Ma, Sabiha Majumder, Gabriele Manoli, Julia Maschler, Lidong Mo,Devin Routh, Kailiang Yu, Constantin M. Zohner, Thomas W. Crowther
Read more: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0217592
Combating climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the ‘consensus gap’ between scientific knowledge and public opinion. Here, we test the extent to which the iconic cities around the world are likely to shift in response to climate change. By analyzing city pairs for 520 major cities of the world, we test if their climate in 2050 will resemble more closely to their own current climate conditions or to the current conditions of other cities in different bioclimatic regions. Even under an optimistic climate scenario (RCP 4.5), we found that 77% of future cities are very likely to experience a climate that is closer to that of another existing city than to its own current climate. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. As a general trend, we found that all the cities tend to shift towards the sub-tropics, with cities from the Northern hemisphere shifting to warmer conditions, on average ~1000 km south (velocity ~20 km.year-1), and cities from the tropics shifting to drier conditions. We notably predict that Madrid’s climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech’s climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. The global assessment of city analogues can facilitate the understanding of climate change at a global level but also help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, which can facilitate effective decision-making in response to on-going climate change.
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Reading a bit further, we encounter this gem;
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The proportion of shifting cities varied consistently across the world. Cities in northern latitudes will experience the most dramatic shifts in extreme temperature conditions (Fig 2C and Fig 2D). For example, across Europe, both summers and winters will get warmer, with average increases of 3.5°C and 4.7°C, respectively. These changes would be equivalent to a city shifting ~1,000 km further south towards the subtropics, i.e. a velocity ~20 km.year-1, under current climate conditions (Fig 2C and Fig 2D). Consequently, by 2050, striking changes will be observed across the northern hemisphere: Madrid’s climate in 2050 will be more similar to the current climate in Marrakech than to Madrid’s climate today; London will be more similar to Barcelona, Stockholm to Budapest; Moscow to Sofia; Portland to San Antonio, San Francisco to Lisbon, Tokyo to Changsha, etc(Fig 3, S2 Table).
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Read more: Same link as above
Let’s imagine for a moment the unlikely possibility that this study is correct.
What is so bad about moving 1000km closer to the tropics?
People like myself voluntarily live in very warm climates. Its not so bad – no freezing your proverbials off on cold winter mornings.
And its not like people wouldn’t have time to adjust.
Florida is the place people retire, because of its gentle warm climate. Most people who move to Florida don’t have any trouble adjusting.
As for more rainfall seasonality, so what? Just build a few more reservoirs. Surely the engineering capabilities of 2050 will be up to the job of collecting a little more rainwater.
I actually enjoy reports like this – all doom and gloom and hyperbole in the introduction, but when you lift the cover on the cage of their monster it turns out to be an inconsequential little mouse.
No wonder they built a funky web presentation to try to make their report look impressive.
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LOL…Ask any Canadian, in January, if 1.5 C warmer would be better…..The majority answer would be….” 1.5 ? How about 8 or 9 !”
Canadians’ response to increased warming: BOOYAH!
By fewer than you’d think, sadly.
People want us to spend trillions of dollars to prevent global warming? How about we figure out how to deal with the next ice age?
The next ice age will bring REAL climate change.
Warming has already arrived in Monticello Minnesota at the outflow of the Monticello Nuclear Plant. Fishermen and swans love it!
Warming has arrived in Chicago !
https://news.yahoo.com/alligator-found-chicago-park-lagoon-160319926.html
Alligators are already migrating NORTH … ohhhhhhhh mammmmmaaaaaaaa
They love golf courses.
And leash laws, it’s like two-for-one.
I”ve been watching that little reptile since it first appeared on the news. I think it’s a crocodilian known as a gharial. They have a long flat snout with knobs at the end of it. So far, it hasn’t eaten any of the ducks in the lagoon where it has taken refuge.
Wait until cold weather comes up, starting in September. It’ll be happy to be led into a warm, cozy environment somewhat close to the tropics from which it came.
Warming hasn’t arrived in MT, WY, ND or SD. This year July is the new June. I’ve never seen the non-irrigated land so green and lush this time of year in my young 68 years. Places that are normally dry by now (I-90 between Butte and Deer Lodge, l-90 East of Livingston) are green like it was May or June.
IUt would be just like everybody moving to Florida or Southern California without the overcrowding. Bring it on!
Also in Britain https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-48947573
“Combating climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the ‘consensus gap’ between scientific knowledge and public opinion.”
The open sentences make this a political document, not a study.
What on earth is the matter with you people??!! Are members the human species really that short-sighted and…well…ignorant as to view the impacts of global climate change as a positive thing for their own self interests?
This will bring untold destruction and misery to countless millions around the globe. From rising sea levels to the mass extinction of critical plant and animal species to increased frequency and power of hurricanes…. Your precious Florida will be half submerged under the sea, and our own Canadian polar bear will meet the same fate, but “at least we”ll have nice warm Canadian winters”. You people have the same mindset of cigarette smokers in the 1950’s. WAKE UP!!!!
Steve,
what is wrong with YOUR statement is that you have ZERO credibility when you go around making silly statements that are not supported by the research.
Sea Level was around 2 meters higher a few thousand years ago, no disaster is found.
Mass extinction isn’t happening at all, no disaster found.
No increase in hurricanes and power at all, no disaster found.
Polar Bear numbers at the highest in 30 years, even with the low last 12 years of summer ice, they still expanded their numbers by thousands, no disaster found.
You have the mindset of a warmist cultist spewing the usual unsupported pessimistic lies and baloney.
The only disaster found are people like you who behave like eye swirling lemmings to the obvious and blatantly false warmist propaganda.
I know some folks in Minnesota that sure would like some global warming after last winter.
I think they even have a song about it!
The Minnesota state bird is a mosquito, I wonder what this warming up deal leads to?
Yes, the Minesota state bird = a
https://www.google.com/search?q=Minnesota+state+bird&oq=Minnesota+state+bird&aqs=chrome.
By the way, wonder if Windelecs slayn mosquitos toi.
Sure there’s respectable studies to such problems too. In the Internet.
I know it’s been discussed and referenced often but now we have about 30 years of climate doom behind us and it’s time to do another “climate prediction fail” accounting except push it on a grand scale. By now there must be hundreds of failed scenarios that have come and gone without one being realized. I’m sure most people have a feeling the doom and gloom prognostications are nothing more than scare mongering but do they realize just how many are wrong?
It’s more like fifty years. Don’t forget the oncoming Ice Age.
the forthcoming ice age.
I’ve checked and according to their prediction my city will feel more like Houston come 2050. Now I know that Houston has had its share of weather issues, and no doubt will have more to come. Plus it gets hot down there (although not much hotter than we I am now), but it’s not like it’s some kind of uninhabitable, post-apocalyptic wasteland. Also, unlike Houston we’re not near the coast, so we have no real concerns about hurricanes and such.
Better get some grapefruit trees planted eh. If (when) they die during the winter, just send these quacks the bill.
Well, I’m sure that this will come as a COMPLETE SURPRISE to you, but based on the updated hardiness zones chart, which shows most areas being warmer now than they have been in the past, we were told locally that we should be able to plant palm trees (at least certain types) and that with a modicum of care those should now be able to survive our winters. Several local businesses ran with this idea and got the necessary permits in order to be able to plant palm trees as part of their landscaping (apparently there are government rules about this kind of thing; who knew?), which they then proceeded to do. And they looked pretty cool at first. But then EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM DIED during the first winter. Once again, who knew?
Small problem. There’s cranes and wickelmaschinen, next time you pack them in straw and they will thank you.
https://www.google.com/search?q=wickelmaschine&oq=wickelmaschune&aqs=chrome.
No real concerns about hurricanes, rip waves and such.
So people are too dumb to understand the climate so we have a paint by numbers game. Oh and although it hasnt happened yet, we see global consistency in this trend (pssst… the models show it is surprisingly consistent). We haven’t had any warming for 20 yrs but the next 30, we will be back on track.
Poor Ecuador has nowhere to go.
Hilarious!
Soon the Earth will look like Iapetus and Equador will be atop the ridge
I live in Ecuador.
Why should it go anywhere ?
It’ll just scrunch up along the Equator to a strip 50 ‘ wide
RE: Seattle will resemble San Francisco by 2050……
It already does. Proliferation of drug addicts and criminal drug trafficking in wretched illegal encampments that are true environmental disasters, human urine and excrement on the sidewalks, used needles in the parks, proliferation of diseases once thought to be eradicated through sanitation and vaccination, lawlessness aided and abetted by the socialist democrat politicians that selectively prohibit the police from enforcing the laws, etc ad nauseam.
The Depraved New World…..
Even the climate isn’t ‘that much different- cold, windy and wet vs cold windy and foggy.
You should have more feeling for these people, they’re the first climate refuges.
You are absolutely right – people move to warmer places to escape the cold. If Stockholm has the same climate as Vienna, maybe the Swedes would love it.
I live in Newfoundland, Canada and we are 10 C mid afternoon 11 July 2019. We are having a much cooler summer than normal and would welcome a bit of warmth.
IDEM!
We are having a totally crap summer in Russia too.
It doesn’t stop raining, and there’s been a cold northerly airstream since early this spring.
I have never picked so many mushrooms as this week, with all the rain.
Back home it’s forecast to be 3C tonight IN MID JULY, with the longest days and white nights.
If we’re supposed to be boiling to death with global warming, someone got the setting on the thermostadt wrong!
“We thereby demonstrate concrete scenarios for the future of the life in those cities.”
What’s “concrete” about contrived, speculative scenarios?
Well what do we expect from “scientists” that use colloquial speech in their publications? It’s more likely their heads are filled with concrete than their scenarios being concrete.
That “consensus gap” appears to be mainly between the ears of said article authors, which include an Urban Geographer, a Historian, and a collection of others who have ZERO knowledge of Climate, Meteorology, or anything remotely concerning actual Science! More Garbage about a so called “Point of No Return”, which I guess is Asinine Occasional Crouton’s “End of the World”, but 2050 is the latest “Oh My God, Its Impossible for Life” date in many recent Climate Alarmist publications. I guess they continue to push for dates that expect 50% of present day people to be dead and the rest will have forgotten the predictions. Well, since the predictions of Doom for the last 50 years have failed to materialize, why not add another 50 years to the out dates?
Northern States are more affected by the Polar Jet Stream meandering than the states in the south. The extent of PJS meandering is a direct consequence of the Polar Vortex strength, weak vortex has less control of the PJS, hence the northern states will have more cold and warm periods alternating. But as the case is, the climate alarmist make more noise during the warm ones, but lately even cold spells have been attributed to the global warming, or is it climate change.
Pretty much this. Living in the Canadian prariries all my life, my observation has always been: you can get a pretty good idea of the weather here (in a gross sense) just by following the jet stream forecasts/activity. Anecdotally speaking, of course. If it’s to the north of of you (or east/west, depending on your location and the directional trend of the stream there), it’ll be relatively warmer. Conversely, to the south. If you’re under it or near to the fringe of it, it’ll be variable/near-normal and probably windy. Beyond that, it just seems to be details and fine-tuning.
“For example, across Europe, both summers and winters will get warmer, with average increases of 3.5°C and 4.7°C, respectively”
Nonsense as well as all of the claims.
How do mid latitude areas like Europe magically warm more than double global temperature would rise? What’s this new law of physics that doesn’t exist?
The warming over recent decades for months especially in Summer and Winter has risen less than the global temperatures have for these areas. Maximum temperature records also struggle to beat more than global rise in temperature for local weather stations. This is nothing more than alarmist rubbish based on no facts at all.
How do they expect some cities to even rise more than 5c unless there are near the poles, certainly will not happen and has never happened with the global warming seen so far.
“These changes would be equivalent to a city shifting ~1,000 km further south towards the subtropics”
Over the last 50 years or more there has been barley a shift in 100-200km further south. The planet won’t suddenly change 5 times greater for no reason what so ever and has failed to demonstrate anything at all that this would happen.
The irony being if anything liked this did happen it would mainly benefit the general population because the sub-tropics and tropics will have had very little rises compared.
With “climate science” all is possible, even that each area in the planet will warm twice as fast as all the others :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UftMrkqCwk&t=46s
So, no problemo for climatistas to claim something or the opposite or anything else.
“shifting to warmer conditions, on average ~1000 km south (velocity ~20 km.year-1”
Let’s see 1000 km / 31 years to 2050 = ~32 km/y.
They can’t even seem to get the simple math right.
So, 1.5 C warmer…IF IT HAPPENS, would be mostly at night and at the poles. And with the expected oceanic cycle cooling expected between 2020 and 2050 it most likely will not happen.
Nobody would be carping about half a degree average warming in any of the 50 States except maybe Nevada and New Mexico (Hawaii would not get more than 0.2 C warmer)…and those have low humidity and likely wouldn’t notice the difference.
Alarmist Warmunists are certain about the warming based on increased evaporation in the tropics…which will somehow cause more droughts. NONE of the dry regions that emerge in the climate models (since 2000) are emerging in reality.
We will probably get cooling, but I”m rooting for about 2 C warming BEFORE the next inevitable interglacial cooling.
What surprised me was the 1.5 C figure. That’s not too far out of line with UAH’s 1.3 C per century (It’s just under 1.9 C per century). I’d say most people wouldn’t be too alarmed by that, not to mention virtually most people living today would be gone by 2100 so, who really cares if it’s a bit warmer in Minnesotastan.
consensus gap… lol
“If carbon emissions remain unabated, the Earth will be 1.5° C warmer by 2100 ”
The first of many false assumptions this work is based on. When the foundation is faulty the superstructure should not be trusted. There is no correlation of warming to emissions. There is no correlation of atmospheric CO2 concentration to human emissions. Human emissions cannot be shown to account for more than about 5% of atmospheric CO2. The rest of the study is wasted effort.
Regarding the “GAP between the science and public acceptance”…..WHAT ABOUT THE GAP between all of the CAGW science prognostications and reality.
I’m not seeing even one successful prediction over the last 30 years….WHICH qualifies as a minimal Climate time intetval.
Most of the predictions are totally off the wall laughable…like Mann’s flooding of South Manhattan years before now.
No reasonable person – even without any science background – could take these liars seriously.
The only thing BARELY keeping the Climate Models in the game at all….is manufactured data….NONE OF WHICH CAME DIRECTLY FROM ANY ACTUAL THERMOMETER READING before ~ 2006.
All the climate cult ever proves is how delusional they are. It’s basically a paradigm at this point.
If those cities will move 1000km by 2050 when does the trip start?
Are at zero miles now?
When will mile 1 occur?
Isn’t “Global Warming” everywhere already?
From the article: “We only have 11 years until passing the point of no return. If carbon emissions remain unabated, ”
Now see what you did, AOC! This person has taken you seriously when you claimed we only had 12 more years to the point of no return with regard to CAGW. Then you said you were just kidding, but now look, this person took you seriously and is now babbling inconherently about future catastrophe.
When you are kidding, AOC, be sure to point it out right away otherwise weaker minds will think you are serious and will be misled into saying and doing stupid things.
How long, to the point of no return? 11 years, apparently! Who knew….
Kansas – The Point Of No Return
https://youtu.be/o-R8gHj_7v8
2050 is the new 2020 and the 2000 before that.
I thought we only had 12 years more to live.
So, this is really good news.
“Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information.”
Yes. They’re trying to sell something, and packaging is a big part of selling. The claim is that they are providing “tangible information”. Riiiiiight. Looks like propaganda. Feels like it. Smells like it. Tastes like it. Sure glad I didn’t step in it.
Um, if you already tasted it, stepping in it would be the least of your troubles, Bruce.