by Javier
I have maintained since 2015 that in the 2006-2007 season the Arctic underwent a cyclical phase shift, and the rapid sea-ice melting observed over the previous decades ended. A few scientists predicted or explained this shift based on their study of multi-decadal oscillations (see bibliography). They were ignored by mainstream climatology and the press because the “anthropogenic” melting of the Arctic is one of the main selling points of the climate scare. See for example:
A devastating Arctic temperature rise that could submerge coastal cities and trigger species extinction is now locked in. Business Insider March 15, 2019
Year after year the data supports my view over the desperate scaremongers like Tamino. With the passing of time it is more and more difficult to defend the idea that Arctic melting is continuing, so alarmists keep changing the metric. First it was September sea-ice extent (SIE), then September sea-ice volume, and now annual average SIE. However, the reference measurements are September minimum SIE and March maximum SIE.
This article is more than a biannual update on the Arctic ice situation, as I will focus specifically on showing evidence for the trend change that took place in 2007. As 12 years have passed since the shift, the best way is to compare the 2007-2019 period with the previous 1994-2006 period of equal length to display the striking differences between both periods.
The supposed dangers of an ice-free Arctic appear to be decreasing. While the first period showed a September (minimum) SIE loss of 20%, the second has seen a gain of 10%.
March (maximum) SIE still shows a decreasing trend, although it is so small as to be negligible. While the first period showed a March SIE loss of 8%, the second period displays the same March SIE in 2019 as 12 years before.
Nowhere is the 2007 Arctic shift better seen than in SIE melting. This is the sea-ice surface melted every year from the March maximum to the September minimum. The 2007 melting season saw a jump from ~ 9 million km^2 to ~ 10.5 million km^2 melted, but accompanying this huge jump in melted surface came a trend inversion, so the surface melted has been decreasing since then. It will be interesting to see what happens to the annual melted surface over the next few years
We have been told repeatedly that our emissions are responsible for the melting of the Arctic. There is a problem with this hypothesis. Despite completely different melting profiles, both periods display the same percentage increase in CO₂. Changes in CO₂ levels do not explain the differences in sea-ice behavior for the two halves of the last 26 years. And this is also a problem because we have been told repeatedly that by reducing our CO₂ emissions we can save the Arctic. Yet Arctic sea-ice is unlikely to respond to changes in our CO₂ emissions given its lack of response to consistently increasing CO₂ levels.
The most common scientific explanation for Arctic sea-ice melting is the extraordinary warming taking place at high latitudes due to Arctic amplification. It is described as a positive feedback where the decrease in ice and snow cover reduces planetary albedo, thus increasing radiative warming. This, together with increased heat transport from lower latitudes drives further reductions in ice cover. This explanation is problematic, as Arctic amplification has continued unabated in the absence of SIE reduction and without producing further SIE reduction. The decrease in ice albedo from losing 40% of the September sea-ice cover between 1994 and 2007 has been unable to drive further loses since then, refuting the sea-ice “death spiral” proposed by Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
The climatic factor that explains sea-ice behavior and was the basis for the only correct prediction of the 2006-2007 Arctic shift is internal variability: The existence in the climate system of multi-decadal oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The problem for the climate alarmists with this explanation is that if it explains why the ice is not melting now, it also explains in great part why it was melting before, greatly reducing the possible anthropogenic contribution. Another problem for them is that these oscillations are not part of the general circulation models, because their origin is unknown. Thus, making the general circulation models essentially useless to project changes. And these are all strong talking points for climate skeptics.
BIBLIOGRAPHY:
Årthun, M., et al. 2017. “Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean.” Nature Communications, 8, ncomms15875.
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15875
Divine, D.V. and Dick, C., 2006. Historical variability of sea ice edge position in the Nordic Seas. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 111 (C1).
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2004JC002851
Miles, M.W., et al. 2014. “A signal of persistent Atlantic multidecadal variability in Arctic sea ice.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 463–469.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL058084/full
Wyatt, M.G. and Curry, J.A., 2014. Role for Eurasian Arctic shelf sea ice in a secularly varying hemispheric climate signal during the 20th century. Climate dynamics, 42 (9-10), pp.2763-2782.
https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/stadium-wave1.pdf
DATA SOURCES:
Arctic Sea Ice extent
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/monthly/data/
Temperature reanalysis
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.pl
CO₂
ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/CO₂/CO₂_annmean_mlo.txt
PREVIOUS ARTICLES:
Evidence that multidecadal Arctic sea ice has turned the corner
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/07/evidence-that-multidecadal-arctic-sea-ice-has-turned-the-corner/
Arctic melt season changes and the Arctic regime shift
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/11/arctic-melt-season-changes-and-the-arctic-regime-shift/
This video covers how ice on earth is only present 5% of the time according to the geologic record. It is unusual that we have ice at all. The video is made by some teenagers, but they have a video clip that covers the geologic record.
https://youtu.be/78CvBi5ME7M
Their second video is very good, too. Nice job on them!
Their channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCH0C8BmpzY_8YXvYWBChJ3w
I just wonder how you found out about a 1 day old video….. hum…. Mind you, the videos are good, I like them! Carry on for as long as you will be let!
Misinformed teenagers. What is astonishing is the Rate of ice loss in the last 30 – 40 years and the accelleration towards the inevitable blue ocean event. 2019 ice loss, Arctic and now Antarctic too is at or close to record lows for the satellite period despite Javier’s selected plots.
When insolation is high the extra heat absorbed from reduced albedo and not having to go into melting ice combined with extra suface mixing is going to cause a step jump in temperature. Once the Arctic loses the last of its thinning film of summer ice the process will be irreversible, at least in terms of human civilisation.
Quaternary ends in the blink of an eye, enjoy the show.
Keep reading the Guardian for fake news.
Sea ice is at a record low. I don’t understand how you can write “Ice refuses to melt” and keep a straight face.
Loydo
A record low for when? for the last few dozen years that we have reliable satellite data? Despite the near yearly “hottest year ever” records we are told to accept over the nightly news, it is very obvious that this is not a fact. Think back to Eric the Red and the 4 Viking longboats that settled Southern Greenland in 976. They grew barley during the Medieval Warm Period, until forced to leave (1414 being the last records) by a cooling climate. You cant grow barley in Southern Greenland today. I wonder how much ice was in the Arctic then? I will also point out that numerous studies confirm the world wide nature of the MWP, so its not a “localised” event as portrayed by alarmists.
Which record would that be? The Arctic was recorded as being sailed in 1879. That would seem to suggest a low level of Arctic ice. And no icebreakers, modern navigation aids etc.
Lee: Is this the expedition you speak of?
The Jeannette expedition of 1879–1881, officially called the U.S. Arctic Expedition, was an attempt led by George W. De Long to reach the North Pole by pioneering a route from the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait. The premise was that a temperate current, the Kuro Siwo, flowed northwards into the strait, providing a gateway to the Open Polar Sea and thus to the pole.
This theory proved illusory; the expedition’s ship, USS Jeannette and its crew of 33, was trapped by ice and drifted for nearly two years before she was crushed and sunk, north of the Siberian coast.
Right on with the Guardian. Their enviromental editor is a petrogeologist who was one thanked for all his help by the winner of a, Schlumberger award. They are on the BP side, marketing the wrong gas.
Loydo, I smell something. Why would albedo and co2 have amplified influence where the sun has the least influence. You have left out the possibility that sea ice can also melt from below. How can you make such bold predictions with an incomplete argument?
@ur momisugly Citizen Smith
You are so right. But it is probably not only the warmer water. I am puzzled here about the tendency of a drop in the minimum temperatures, especially in the SH,
e.g here in SA, where minimum T has dropped by 0.8K:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/h7944heslj7gg7q/summary%20of%20climate%20change%20south%20africa.xlsx?dl=0
OTOH it appears that minimum T in the NH is still positive.
The only explanation that can work for me is that we have all forgotten about the movement of the elephant in the room. Come down a few km in a gold mine and meet him.
Yes Citizen, the ice is melting both from below and from above. Reduced albedo is one mechanism. Another is the latent heat of fusion. The less ice there is to melt the more of that latent heat has to go somewhere else – there is a lot of it.
“How can you make such bold predictions with an incomplete argument?”
I’m not, I’m just looking at ALL the satellite data instead of just a convenient slice. According to that data the writing is unequivocally on the wall.
Take a look at this Arctic temperature graph and tell me what is likely to happen to the ice.
http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Arctic2017.png
**Take a look at this Arctic temperature graph and tell me what is likely to happen to the ice.
http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Arctic2017.png**
Your problem is Berkeley earth. Those temperatures are manufactured. The 1930’s-40’s were the same or warmer than now.
“Those temperatures are manufactured. The 1930’s-40’s were the same or warmer than now.”
Why do you say they are manufactured? Do you have some evidence of that?
What (60 degrees north) temperatures are you relying on Gerald?
Loydo
I think that you make the usual mistake of assuming the loss of ice is more important than what it is. The specular reflection of water with incidence angles of 80 to 90 degrees varies from about 35% to 100%, with a median value of about 60% at an 85 degree incidence angle. Admittedly, that is lower than most snow, but it isn’t the “dark water absorbs everything” meme that is implied. The Arctic is notoriously cloudy, so for even the months when the sun is above the horizon, if clouds are present, it doesn’t really matter much whether water or ice is exposed at the surface. Because the Earth is turning continuously, roughly half the time the Arctic Ocean is illuminated, the open water is on the far side where the angle of incidence is close to glancing; hence the reflectivity is close to 100%, which is probably greater than for snow.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/12/why-albedo-is-the-wrong-measure-of-reflectivity-for-modeling-climate/
Changes in Arctic sea ice extent are assumed to be driven by AGW but are they?
https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/04/does-global-warming-drive-changes-in-arctic-sea-ice/
There has been a rise in polar bear numbers, clearly it is their hot feet that is driving the melt … that is the bear facts 🙂
but are they? Clearly not. CO2 has never ceased to rise globally. Arctic Sea ice minimum has been recovering since 2012 OMG minimum. That is why they are moving the goal-posts.
The date of ice minimum has been getting earlier since 2007.
I discussed this analysis here: the “death spiral” is dead.
https://judithcurry.com/2016/09/18/is-the-arctic-sea-ice-spiral-of-death-dead/
The decadal trends in Arctic sea ice an simply non consistent with the idea of “runaway ” melting and positive feedbacks to the ever increasing CO2 forcing.
Scientifically, that idea is now DEAD.
https://climategrog.wordpress.com/2013/09/16/on-identifying-inter-decadal-variation-in-nh-sea-ice/
[MODS] where is my comment “held for moderation” ? Presumably because it had several URLs.
2019 maximum extent was actually higher than that of 1974 by a slice of a Wadham.
Thats odd. Measurements of satelite data go back to 1978 only.
Nice article, Javier.
Oscillations in ocean currents probably play a larger role in global temperature variations than official climate science acknowledges.
The thickness of the ice depends on the air temperature above the ice, but also on the heat of the water below the ice. If you can move some extra heat in via ocean currents, the ice will be thinner. An example of that is polynyas which never freeze over no matter how cold the air gets.
Bingo! Ice extent is a balance of air and ocean temp. Low ice extent is due to warmer ocean water and is sustained by the warmer air temp that results. Over time the Arctic ocean will cool and the ice extent will begin to expand. We are in that turn around period now.
Current Arctic temps are reflective of a “marine’ environment that will not last.
Thanks for the post Javier. I have been beating on the same drum about Arctic ice plateau since 2007. This post describes the mechanism by which Arctic ice extents vary on a quasi-60 year oscillation.
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/12/23/arctic-sea-ice-self-oscillating-system/
From V F. Zakharov:
“An analysis of cause-effect relationships does not leave any doubt in what direction and in what order the climate signal propagates in the atmosphere-ocean-polar ice system. This is not the direction and order usually assumed to cause present climate change. When it has become clear that the changes in the ocean, caused by disturbances of its freshwater balance, precede changes in the extent of sea ice, and the latter the changes in the atmosphere, then there was nothing left but for us to acknowledge self oscillation to be the most probable explanation for the development of the natural process.”
Thanks for the links, Ron.
Zakharov does good work based on careful observations. What I find myself musing about is what changes the salinity of the arctic surface waters. If the arctic storm-track shifts north or south (influenced by the ice-cover) it will have an influence on the amount of rain and therefore the amount of fresh water pouring into the arctic in huge rivers such as the Lena and Mackenzie. But there also seems to be major shifts in the undulations of northern tendrils of the Gulf Stream, demonstrated by fishermen’s observations of major shifts in the populations and ranges of herring and seals. The oscillations in sea-ice seem to involve Mother Nature juggling more than one ball!
Thanks for doing the work you do. I appreciate you and Javier and others who simply observe the facts. It makes a refreshing change from Alarmists (such as Loydo above) who simply insist there is less ice no matter what. Sometimes they make me throw up my hands and retire to other topics, for rather than “beating the same drum” I feel I’m “beating my head against a wall.”
One would think that an adequate understanding of this mechanism might provide a basis for predicting the time frame for this cycle.
Anyone aware of that extrapolation for this work?
Quasi-cyclical with a period of 60-90 years.
That means the length of the cycle changes every time through, but it seems to be constrained to being between 60 and 99 years.
It’s too bad that the multi-decadal oscillations have not had much work put into them. At least not much that I have seen. From what I can tell they are the primary drivers of the biggest changes we see in the climate.
We will get a better idea when the AMO turns negative in the not too distant future. If that leads to a return of Arctic sea ice and the associated cooling that will come with that, it will end the AGW discussion once and for all.
However, it is easy to see that ENSO has a big effect on the AMO index which means a better understanding of all the ocean cycles will be needed to understand future climate change.
Richard: You might want to contact Charles May at chu40217481@verizon.net . He has done a lot of work on matching temperature data using a variety of different frequency oscillations…
That makes sense to as as I have always viewed the climate shift points occurring at (working backwards) 2006/07 from 1976/77 warming; 1976/77 from 1946/47 cooling, 1946/47 from 1915/16 warming; and it goes on like that further back in time.
You have to a little careful as some of those appear to be related to the PDO and there was a paper recently showing the PDO has multiple cycle times. That makes it almost impossible to predict. For example, the PDO going negative in 2006/07 only lasted for around 8 years before going positive again around 2014.
@ur momisugly Richard…thanks for that information on Atlantic shifts. I believe that I have the answer as to why that took place, in regards to the Atlantic on 2006/07 and again in 2014. As I also believe that I also have the answer as to why the shifts in 2006/07 in the sea ice extent took place. I have commented on “the why” a few times before over the years, but no one took any interest or note of what I was trying to point out.
I have a partially written explanatory post which needs to be finished, but life’s distractions have kept me from focusing my thoughts to complete the post. I think it is the key clue to understanding a major function of how the climate shifts. I see it by connecting the dots from looking at different graphs, but I am otherwise limited in my ability to derive how this physically works. That would be the job for you, Javier, and others. Maybe I can get it done by tonight.
What I care about is how this no-melt or reduction in melt volume will affect my winter weather. Asking because the red line on the above Sea Ice Melt chart clearly shows that it coincides with an abominable increase in snow volume and depth, as well as an increase in the length of time for snows from the black line on the same chart.
In my view, it is when the cold weather drops snow and/or slop storms on us compared to when it used to happen that counts, as well as when the last snowstorm occurs. Going by my area alone, I’d say the snow season is lengthening and the warm season is shortening.
Why is this not being taken into account? Mine is not the only area where this is happening.
Sara. It seems to me that the frost free period is longer in my area but we have a longer period of snow cover, Winters seem generally warmer but summers generally cooler. Go figure.
I planted some garden yesterday which is my earliest, but then I am only a 76 year old gardener and am not afraid to replant if I am wrong.
I think it partly depends on where you are located, Rick. I’m in the area that gets the so-called Alberta Clipper in winter. For my area, the snow started early, with light snow that didn’t stick in October, followed shortly by a storm that was snow, sleet and rain combined.
The snow that hit us on April 15 left six inches to shovel. Thought I was done with that. I’m still putting out birdfood, because the bugs aren’t out enough just yet. However, the trees are all flowering, with leaves not far behind, and when I hiked my usual places on this past Saturday and Sunday (April 20-21), the earliest wildflowers had finally begun to emerge. That would be bloodroot, Mayapple and various trilliums, in addition to dogtooth violets and wild geraniums poking up. Also, in one wetland area, the treefrogs were chirping.
Frankly, I expect more odd weather. And I’ve given up on gardening. Going with large pots from now on. Radishes do fine in large pots. I’m just saying that I think the weather pattern is changing, and over a longer period of time, it does make a difference.
I agree. and change is normal. I live in central Alberta so am amused by references to an Alberta clipper. It suggests that we just occasionally send some of our normally wicked weather south. It is not that bad here but a little more warming (or a lot more) would be great.
Sara,
One thing I keep an eye on is the ice in Hudson Bay. As long as they water is open the wicked cold air gets moderated as it passes over, heading south. As soon as it freezes (often in a flash) the north winds are abruptly colder to the south.
I also keep an eye on any ridge of high pressure extending up the Pacific coast. If a ridge locks in the east of North America gets a steady flow of air from the Northwest, and a cold winter. The worst winter I remember, 1976-1977, saw that flow lock in from late October to February. I lived on the coast of Maine back then, and the sea-ice was remarkable. People could walk from Portland Harbor out to Islands in Casco Bay.
We are finally getting spring here in New Hampshire. Spring peepers are shrill in the ponds after dark, and swamp maples making a raspberry haze in the silver jackstraw of branches, and old coots like me get poetic!
Sara sez:
What I care about is how this no-melt or reduction in melt volume will affect my winter weather.
Yup. In late fall, cold air forms over the northern Canadian/Alaska land mass & brings cold weather here to the central Appalachians before the Arctic has much sea ice. I truly doubt even a significant change in Arctic sea ice would affect weather here in winter, obviously none at all other times. It’s still gonna be cold here in the winter…..
Sara & Rick:
Rick telling is age (76) reminded me of an idea of mine to ask elderly people about their observations about the weather over time. The reason being, as climate needs a span of at least 30 years, elderly people will have first-hand personal overview that may very well matter. I hesitated bringing this idea forward, because of course personal experience and impressions are not scientific research. But does that mean their livelong observations should be neglected and thrown overboard?
Part of my personal stance in the climate debate results from my personal weather observations over time, I am 74 now. Younger persons don’t have that overview, and I think it matters. Maybe it is not just being retired that makes climate scientists speak out more freely about the climate nonsense, maybe it also has to do with their personal life-long observations.
Juregn, that is a good point. I moved to where I am, just below the state line, in 2005. I started shooting forest preserve wildflowers as early as they were in bloom. In 2006, the earliest plants were in full bloom by April 19. This year, which is 13 years later, they are still not open.
If observations by memory are backed up by documentation by photos, it does make a difference. I have photos that show wooded areas barely budding up in late March, when they should be in nearly full swing. There is a difference between now and 2006.
I’m also recording day and overnight temperatures, because that has a direct effect on plants. The later bloom period could be the result of chill weather or it could be the result of less solar output, starting with that period of zero sunspots in 2006. I believe there is a correspondence there that is being ignored and should not be.
Jurgen, I refuse to consider myself elderly but then most of my peers seem to have passed on recently.
I did ask older people to comment on my perception of warmer winters and cooler summers in the last 60 years or so. I received several replies from across Canada and the Northern states and all agreed that they perceived a similar observation. Of course, those with a different experience may simply have ignored me.
It is important that respondents have lived in the same general area for their adult life.
One thing I am certain of. The climate is not significantly different from my childhood but it is considerably more comfortable both through a moderation and our own modern adaptation to it.
Sara & Rick,
Thanks for your reply. Yes, added to personal experience, a form of documentation, like photos or diaries will give more firm footing. One of my indicators in Holland would be: can I skate this winter on natural ice? As for temperature, whether there will be ice or not doesn’t need big swings. A few degrees higher or lower can make all the difference. Looking back over the years these winters-with-good-ice became rare, they were more frequent in my younger years for sure. But then, more recently and like a surprise, again a few winters with good ice to skate. This is on par with my general observation that over the years yes, there has been a moderate increase in temperature, with earlier springtime the most telling sign, but this tendency is not clearly observable any more.
Jurgen
You might find this chart I created several years ago to be of interest. It describes the warming climate that can be observed over the last 350 years by looking at the human life span
TonybTony
Indeed! There’s a huge difference in impact of actual experience as opposed to mere reading knowledge. Those of us who were adults in the ’70s remember not only the falling intellectual level of the rising “me” generation (see its mantra of “drugs, sex and rock n’ roll”), but the falling temperatures and ice-age scares as well.
This is not just anecdotal evidence, but is manifest in vetted station records throughout much of the globe. The recent near-obliteration of that deep trough (ca. -0.6 K) in global average anomalies via spurious data adjustments is one of the great frauds perpetrated upon an unsuspecting public, throughout whose shorter lifetime temperatures have largely risen.
Jurgen
The problem is the subjectivity. When I was 6 years old the snow was twice as deep because I was half as tall!
Clyde, I understand your point, unless you mean “objectivity” is not problematic. Like in “undisputed climate science”.
Both in science and in philosophy you have to deal with subjective choices all the time you cannot escape from. Even, without this subjective content these disciplines would be sterile and pretty meaningless. The choice is not either objective or subjective, the choice is to find the right balance between these two aspects. “Objective findings” or “objective facts” result from subjective choices of priorities. Imposing this objectivity on others while hiding the subjective choices your “objectivity” resulted from, is nothing but power play.
Subjectivity in open discourse is not a problem at all when you are honest about it.
The other day I had a conversation with a lady of my own age. She expressed deep concern about the climate and the alarming sea-level rise. As she does visit our beaches on a regular basis, I asked her: “Did you notice the sea is now higher than before?” She looked at me and smiled: “No”.
This lady has climate experience because of her age. Yes, it is subjective experience, but it is of a different quality compared to the non-experienced subjectivity of, say, climate-crusade-children. I think her subjectivity matters.
The big loss of ’07 was from ice-arches giving way and
letting ice move to lower latitudes, where warmer
water caused melting. This will happen again.
There are papers and videos of this loss.
Many were posted here on WUWT.
One interesting bit of weather trivia is that the “ice-arches” gave way big time, way back in 1817, and sea ice poured down into the Atlantic all the way to the coast of Ireland. Meanwhile whalers were reporting ice-free waters north of Greenland. All the ice in the North Atlantic may have so chilled the water that it caused, or contributed to, the “Year Without A Summer” in Western Europe. Also it may have build a ridge of high pressure, and made it hot in Eastern Europe and Siberia.
“The only thing new in the world is the history you haven’t studied.”
Arctic amplification is problematic in my opinion The measurements are remote and not easily verified by unbiased observation and satellite measurements do not cover all of the polar area. A recent announcement by Canadian government scientists that Canada was warming twice as fast as elsewhere was suspiciously released just before the federal governments imposition of a controversial carbon tax. There is not a multinational presence like in the south polar region. It is possible the lack of melting is because warming does not actually exist.
Arctic amplification is a concept that works well over geological eras. We know that when the planet is in a hothouse condition the poles are much much warmer than when it is in an icehouse condition as now, while the tropics don’t change much their temperature. So it is clear that the climate of the planet can be described by the highly variable polar temperature. It is obvious then that if the planet is warming the poles should warm more.
Going from the correct concept to the short-term data is the problem. For a start there is no Antarctic amplification. We think that Arctic amplification is due to the decrease in albedo and an increase in heat transport and therefore that is what the models show. However the picture is more complex as transport appears to play a bigger role and it is difficult to interpret, as depending when and how the heat is transported the effect could be to warm the Arctic or to cool the rest of the planet, as the poles act as radiators. Both effects would appear as Arctic amplification, but one would warm the planet and the other would cool it.
Arctic amplification, as I understand it, comes from the simple aspects of a sphere with surface area = 4πr^2, and where the dominant amounts of radiant sw energy are delivered onto that rotating sphere.
The bulk of the solar SW radiant energy is delivered into the Earth-climate system from ~45N to ~ 45S, thus making the polar regions above +/- 60 deg latitude predominately acting as radiators for a system in approximate equilibrium.
The simple math tells us the surface area between 45N to 45 S = (1.414)π r^2 and the polar areas (60N to 90N + 60S to 90S) = (0.268)π r^2. That ratio is 1.414/0.268 = ~5.3. Let’s just call it a round factor of 5 in area difference since the cutoffs at 45 degs and 60 degs is somewhat imprecise and arbitrary.
And since the equatorial oceans to mid-latitude oceans transport their solar-warmed water northwards and southwards to the poles via ocean currents, this means the tropical warmth is concentrated via this transport to the smaller polar regions, the area being smaller by a factor of ~5.
Thus a theoretical +1 deg C of water warming from equator to 45 N/S latitudes should (very roughly) amplify to about +5 deg C in the colder polar regions where the heat is radiated back out to the cold dark space at 4 Kelvin. The fact that the Earth isn’t a sphere of only water, but it has a very large southern polar land mass and the bulk of the land in the NH, and the transport currents are messy and complex, makes this a also very messy approximation is the real world.
But because of this ~5x concentration (amplification) it allows small polar SIE changes to be very effective modulators of the radiated power back to space in a feedback that maintains stable temperatures across the globe.
Great work Javier. But as others have said the arctic thermohaline circulation is important here as well.
No. It is the change in earth’inner core. Look how the magnetic north pole had changed to re align with the sun. The magnetic stirrer effect…
Shaken, not stirred.
— Bond, James Bond, 007.
This is an interesting article.
CO2 warming, if it were real, should be doing its warming thing, 24/7. AWG is either there or it is not.
Remember Al’s tiny little imaginary AGW light bulbs? There is no switch to turn the imaginary AWG light bulbs on and off.
The observed increase in Arctic sea ice, at a time when atmospheric CO2 is highest, is the end of the Arctic amplification urban legend and is evidence that there is no AGW.
Perhaps the answer to Arctic amplification is that it is not an ongoing process. Natural global warming leads to warmer oceans which move above average heat content into the arctic region via warmer ocean currents. There is then an upper limit to how warm the Arctic can get. The region does warm faster than lower latitudes as it is a small area being warmed by a continuous flow of warm water, mainly from the Atlantic side. If the warming effect was not limited, then the DMI temp graph would also show warming in the summer months. A good analogy would be a radiator in a vehicle, imo. The radiator is able to shed excess heat from the system while maintaining an overall balance/upper temp limit. Otherwise the system would fail.
“If the warming effect was not limited, then the DMI temp graph would also show warming in the summer months.”
You’re misunderstanding the mechanism here goldminor. The temps are not rising in Summer because the latent heat of fusion. It can’t warm further while there is ice to melt in much the same way a pot of boiling water can’t rise much above 100C – it acts like an upper limit. In the absence of ice you can expect much warmer summers.
@Loydo …thanks for reminding me of that. However, why don’t we see further loss of the sea ice as the years pass? Many of us see the same thing in that the sea ice extent has leveled off over the last 9 years. Meanwhile the volume has increased over the last several years while also holding stable over the last 9 years. Imo, the volume will now increase over the next 2.5 years approximately, and there is a good probability that both extent and volume will now grow at least into the mid 2030s. My reasoning to be explained later.
Watched Ian Plimer being interviewed on Sky channel yesterday (and he was hilarious), where he pointed-out that humans have released just 3% of all the CO2 in the atmosphere. Apparently a vary naughty 3%, as it’s causing all this hysteria at the UN and within lefty parties (and other organized crime and graft syndicates).
And good job btw, Javier.
The time periods of a lot of climate “oscillations” approach a goodly part of a human lifespan. If you are looking at a thirty year cycle, what you are currently recording is kind of like the 3 Blind Men and the Elephant story.. what you think the animal is depends on where you are touching it.
You can look back into prior cycles but satellites weren’t there prior to the 1980’s so its kind of hard to really compare apples to apples. The AMO will have a huge impact on Northern Hemisphere weather but it also is a comparatively long cycle. Sometimes you just have to let the cycle play out to get it.
You see extend, max extend and min extend 1978 – 2019
https://www.directupload.net/file/d/5431/_png.htm
There was a link error 🙁
The link shows a blank black page.
Sorry, no idea what happend, file size = 0 after upload.
Try this now, to see extend and min/max extend.
Seaice extend 1978 – 2019
+10 …nice graph
Mmm, down 20% in extent and 50% in volume.
The best thing about the arctic amplification, and its importance to the narrative, is that it’s very hard for the ordinary person to go see it themselves. You simply must take the word of those who have access to those extremely remote areas.
The funny part is how many of them seem to get stuck in all that missing ice, every time they attempt to sail those ice free waters.
What has the Arctic Amplification to do with the Arctic Oscillation ?
Of course we all know Sea ice increase or decrease has nothing to do with SLR. It is only one of many emergent phenomenon in the complex system of feedbacks that keep Earth’s climate remarkably stable by modulating the amount of climate system heat energy loss at the high latitudes back to the 4K background of space.
The system by cycling (natural climate cycles at several time scales) provides a continual equilibrium search to release or retain heat. Think of it as vibrating the sand pile to prevent an extreme excursion-prone state to build that would relax in an sudden dramatic avalanche.
Climatology of course knows this. And statistically an average Sea Ice Extent (SIE) is meaningless without an accompanying variation. But also using a 30 year SIE averaging period with a 60-70 AO or AMO cycle affecting SIE also has an obvious problem that the climate hustlers can exploit.
Only exploitable over half of a cycle. Then one must resort to obfuscation or outright lies.
“A devastating Arctic temperature rise that could submerge coastal cities and trigger species extinction is now locked in. Business Insider March 15, 2019”
Ummm, Arctic ice is floating on water. It could melt 100% and have no affect on sea level..
…no effect…
Or no affection… but I guess it is the first one.
I wonder if the ice/no ice albedo affect is really a wash. Yeah the ice reflect more light at Northern climes, where there is little light to begin with, but the ice acts as a blanket as well, keep in heat in the upper ocean. No ice should mean that more ocean heat escapes.
Clearly the ice-albedo effect cannot be very powerful. If it was the melting wouldn’t have stopped cold after losing over 30% of its summer surface.
Also the ice is still in place in June when the sun is as high as it gets, and might have a dramatic effect. The open water never really appears until August when the sun is dipping down, and the refreeze is already starting at the surface. (Most of the melt from mid-August on is due to the bottom of the ice being melted). By September the sun is right down on the horizon, and sunlight cannot penetrate the water at that low angle. (Try snorkeling at sunset.) In fact the albedo of glassy water is higher than that of dirty ice.
The albedo-argument is Swiss cheese, (full of holes), and so is the drama of the “Death Spiral”. But don’t tell Alarmists. They like to hold their breath every summer.
You know pretty well that you are cherry-picking 2007, and that your comparison will not work with any other year except 2012. Arctic alarmists are, well, alarmists, the situation and the trends are not really as bad as they make them look, and probably the rate of ice disappearance has indeed slowed down in recent years. But pretending that the ice is now increasing or about to increase… man, you are only fooling yourself. Not gonna happen.
Still, we probably are some decades far from seeing an ice-free arctic in summer, and when that happens, it will also probably be more beneficial than bad. There’s really no need to fool yourself with something that is not going to happen. Sometime in the next 5-6 years we will see a new arctic ice low. It’s going to happen. Arctic is in a spiral of death… sorry, I mean, a spiral of life (ice is not alive, and it does prevent life from flourishing).
Nylo, or Nostradamus?
Nylostradamus?
Nylo, no cherry-picking.
For every periodical oscillation there is a point when the trend changes from negative to positive or from positive to negative. There are many ways to detect a trend break point. Statistics has a few, but they usually require a few more points to get better confidence. Showing equal length periods with opposite trends is a valid method.
I am sure that anybody told in September 2007 that 12 years later the ice extent was going to be higher would have said the same. I don’t know what is going to happen to Arctic sea-ice in the future. All I know is that if this cycle keeps its pace we are not going to see much Arctic melting until the 2030s. Heck, this projection is just absolutely opposite to every official projection. If I am correct it has some merit. More merit that all those published articles showing no skill and no understanding.
Perhaps yes, or perhaps no, but what matters is not a one year data, as that is weather. The trend is what matters. It is not the same to say that the summer ice should completely melt by 2080, than to say that we might have to wait until the next interglacial to see an Arctic without ice.
“I am sure that anybody told in September 2007 that 12 years later the ice extent was going to be higher I am sure that anybody told in September 2007 that 12 years later the ice extent was going to be higher would have said the same. ould have said the same. ”
They would be misinformed, it is now lower.
Looks like a sideways trend to me, … http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png
Javier
Well, I wouldn’t and I didn’t. I expected sea ice levels to be higher because I considered 2007 a very rare anomaly. This said, while I expected the level to be higher, I didn’t expect it to return to pre-2007 levels. More than 2007 is easy, it was an anomalous year, but reverting the previously existing downward trend is not. This is why I say that you are cherry-picking your study periods. You cannot start in a clearly anomalous year.
I agree, and the trend, if you don’t cherry-pick the starting point in an anomalous year, is downwards. Choose similar length periods starting in any other year than 2007 and the trend will be downwards, this is a fact. The thing is, anomalous years will continue to happen. As they are anomalous, they don’t happen EVERY year, but maybe once or twice in a decade. And we don’t have to guess what the ice will be in such a year, because we have already seen it in 2012, where the level went clearly below 2007. Sooner or later we will get another anomalous year and the level will again become a record. I don’t personally think that this is a bad thing, I consider the disappearance of sea ice to be more likely a largely positive thing. But I do think that it is wrong to think that it doesn’t disappear any more, just because it is consistently higher than in one of the most anomalous recent years. You only fool yourself with that cherry-picking.
The satellite trend starts from a peak point in sea ice. So obviously the trend is to less sea ice over most of the known record. Then from 2007 there is a clear sideways trend in the record despite the 2 steep drops of 2007 and 2012. That says something about the trend, imo. Your argument is that there will undoubtedly be another year like 2012. but is your claim that the opposite can’t happen? How would you know that?
Also it is known from news stories in the past that the Arctic has experienced similar SEI losses around the warm trend from the 1920s/30s, and maybe into some portion of the 1940s, before that cool trend from the late 1940s to the late 1970s saw the SEI once again reach to higher levels. Imo, and also in Javier’s science a cool trend has set in which should last into the mid 2030s. I would bet that the SEI will regain some portion of its earlier higher ice extents over that period of time.
goldminor,
your argument is that there will undoubtedly be another year like 2012. but is your claim that the opposite can’t happen? How would you know that?
I don’t know, nobody knows about the future. I just find it more likely than not, based on the evolution of sea ice volume, that shows a more robust downwards trend than the sea ice area or extent. This favours bigger area losses whenever we have anomalous years.
the Arctic has experienced similar SEI losses around the warm trend from the 1920s/30s, and maybe into some portion of the 1940s
True, and I do think that part of the current losses are due to a natural cycle. But then we have this outstanding warming in the arctic, which makes me also think that part of it is due to Global Warming which is partly due to CO2 which is not going to disappear anytime soon. So the trend can slow down and is slowing down, but I don’t consider it likely that it will revert. If you want, we can bet on when will the arctic sea ice in summer will again regularly reach the pre-2007 levels. I am willing to bet with disadvantage on “not in this century unless a supervolcano or meteor strike sends us back to an ice age”. What is your expectation?
@ur momisugly Nylo … I think that the floor for volume loss has been reached, and I do think that the volume and SIE will start to gain steadily in the years ahead of us. I would bet that by 2024 the summer volume will match or be above 2007 summer levels. And I am a gambler though one on fixed income.
And now I have to say thanks for making me take a long hard look at a few correlations. You have led me to a discovery. Just in the middle of all that though a feral cat started raising hell with one of my outside cats. Going to have to shoot that one at the first opportunity. My life’s circumstances are so antithetical to staying focused. It’s amazing I ever made it this far along.
Back to the sea ice, I would bet that this year’s low point on PIOMAS volume will hold around 4.5 (1000 km), and no lower than 4 at the lowest, if some extra weather causes a bit more loss. Also, the volume will increase at least into early 2021 according to my newly found understanding of these interacting parts of the climate system work. Once again thanks for making me look.
Nylo,
You seem to forget that the surface extent melted every year is on a declining trend since 2007. You can’t explain a change in trend on an anomalous year. 2012 was even more anomalous and it didn’t affect the melting trend.
There is an alternative explanation to yours, and that is the one supported by the internal oscillation hypothesis and evidence. I put the bibliography for something but everybody thinks they can refute what I say without reading it.
In 2006, before the anomalous year, Dmitry Divine and Chad Dick, from the Norwegian Polar Institute, published the following:
“Given the last cold period observed in the Arctic at the end of the 1960s, our results suggest that the Arctic ice pack is now at the periodical apogee of the low-frequency variability. This could explain the strong negative trend in ice extent during the last decades as a possible superposition of natural low frequency variability and greenhouse gas induced warming of the last decades. However, a similar shrinkage of ice cover was observed in the 1920s– 1930s, during the previous warm phase of the LFO, when any anthropogenic influence is believed to have still been negligible. We suppose therefore that during decades to come, as the negative phase of the thermohaline circulation evolves, the retreat of ice cover may change to an expansion.”
See the reference in the article. You have a link there.
So the shift was predicted based on scientific analysis including data prior to the satellite data.
If you have a shift taking place at a certain time and an anomalous year happens to take place at the time, then that year becomes the starting point of the new trend. I am not cherry-picking 2007. The picking was done by the system and I am merely acknowledging it. You are confused because your analysis of the system is too superficial and ignores relevant bibliography on the question.
Javier,You seem to forget that the surface extent melted every year is on a declining trend since 2007
I don’t forget. But the main reason is that the maximum ice surface extent is declining as well, and it is doing so faster than the miminum (in recent years).
In 2006, before the anomalous year […] the shift was predicted based on scientific analysis
It is interesting to note that, despite that scientific prediction in 2006 regarding a reversal, we are still, 13 year later, UNDER 2006 sea ice levels. Which is basically the reason I find a reversal so unlikely. Because I believed it would happen, but then year after year have passed and the predicion has not become true, the goalpost gets moved, it’s always about to start and it never starts. Now I don’t expect the return to pre-2007 levels anymore. When do you expect it? Can you make a gross prediction, something like “no later than year 20XX”?
It has become short of true as the previous trend has been radically altered making Peter Wadhams a clown.
What Divine & Dick had no way of knowing is that a huge El Niño would take place from 2014, releasing a huge amount of heat, part of which finds its way to the Arctic before leaving the planet. What is remarkable is that under such circumstances Arctic sea-ice has been able to resist further melting.
Starting in late 2020-early 2021 I expect a two-year La Niña to start. I expect Arctic sea-ice to show a more vigorous growth in the three year period starting in 2021. If correct the fiction of a melting Arctic is going to be difficult to maintain. By the end of that period we might have reached 2006 levels. I don’t expect sea-ice to resume a strong melting phase before 2035-2040. I have already published about this:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/05/arctic-ice-natural-variability/
Javier (bolding is mine):
I don’t know how to interpretate that. Does it mean that, despite your prediction of an increasing ice area, and despite your prediction that a strong melting will not start again until 2035-2040, you consider it pretty possible that we will NOT reach again 2006 levels? That’s like predicting a possibly very tiny increase, isn’t it? If so, we are aligned. But that is the same as acknowledging that, on top of the cycles that the arctic ice undergoes, there will be still a strong reduction trend. after looking at a full cycle.
Nylo,
I recommend studying the history of arctic explorers. They may not have had satellite pictures, but they sailed places where we seldom see open water now. Then a few years later another boat would be trapped in the exact same place.
Check out Henry Hudson, who got Hudson Bay named after being marooned there by his disgruntled crew. They were sailing Hudson Bay in the 1600’s, some years finding it ice-free and some years finding it ice-clogged. Parry Channel is named after William Parry, who found open water in 1819 where it is seldom open now. A great debacle to read about is the fiasco of the Polaris in 1872.
One thing to remember is that sailing ships were not ice-breakers. A mere skim of sea-ice could stop them, without a strong following wind. Yet whalers gambled all the time up there. A whaling ship apparently circumnavigated Greenland in 1817. Then an entire fleet of 33 ships got trapped north of Alaska in 1871.
Then the adventures of Nansen, both on and off the Fram, 1893-1896, make wonderful reading.
After covering a couple hundred years of wonderful stories you are left with the distinct impression the ice comes, and the ice goes. Cycles follow cycles. The Dorset Eskimos had no boats and hunted on the ice, but later the Inuit Eskimos hunted whales from kayaks. Again I say, “The only thing new under the sun is the history you haven’t studied.”
I think Nylo is short for “new low”, reflective of comment quality…
The rate of ice disappearance is not always a factor of temperature. Wind can also decrease sea ice extent by compressing and stacking ice. Consequently, sea ice extent is a crappy metric. But we never hear climate scientists or their toadies divulge this.
Nylo, so, you ignore the AMOC cycles etc. Which lag PDO by about ten years and are now started on their cool stage. By sea temp measurment to depth. These cycles have been known for centuries eg by Baqsue Cod fishermen and Salmon Fishers etc..
The c.63yr full cycles appear to be tied with solar system orbital mechanics but work is ongoing there…… We knew the cooling would come in spite of that clown Wadham, because we have seen it before if old enough and sure enough it is back. Hence warmist PANIC.
Sara, yes, we see shortening of growing seasons here in NZ, SH, too. If I heard correctly, a UNFAO report recently noted a 20% fall in NH carry-over crops at harvest. Fingers crossed that does not continue or increase. Brett
Brett,
No, I don’t, I think they can modulate what will still continue to be a downward trend in sea ice. The trend since 2007 may continue to be positive for several years, maybe even a decade, but we are not going back to pre-2007 levels.
I have been following the Global Warming scam since 2008. Do you know how many times I have heard some skeptic claim that there is a cooling trend about to start? Almost as many as I have heard alarmists predict a catastrophe. Both things tend to be based on cherry-picking and tend to keep failing. What is being done here with the sea ice trend since 2007 is the same that is being done with the global temperature trend since 2016. I am the first to acknowledge that both trends will still point up/down (ice/temp) for a while, I personally predict that the 2016 records will not be broken before 2030. But it is the product of cherry-picking the starting point. Overall temperature trends since 2016 will point down, but we are likely not returning to pre-2015 temperatures anymore. There are some AMOC cycles, yes, but there is also an overall trend. AMOC cycles can only modulate it and make it look like a stair instead of a ramp.
You are not the first to observe that, obviously. I already published on the trend and periodicities in Arctic sea ice extent.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/05/arctic-ice-natural-variability/
What you are wrong is in that choosing 2007 is the product of cherry picking. A low year at the time of a shift upwards in sea-ice extent becomes the starting point of the new trend exactly the same as a high year at the time of a shift downwards. It is unavoidable, and given enough time statistics will confirm it as the break point.
Thanks Javier,
One sentence in second paragraph might need fixing;
“Year after year the data supports my view over the desperate of scaremongers like Tamino.”
Thank you. Originally it said “Year after year the data keeps supporting my view to the desperation of scaremongers like Tamino.” Perhaps it is also incorrect. I cannot edit the article, though.
a, I fixed the typo. As Javier says this was an edit I made and messed up.
Nice work, Javier!
Your data indicates we are probably at the ‘bottom’ of the arctic SIE cycle, in this global experiment. Only time and the vagaries of climate factors known and unknown influencing the arctic will reveal the results. But I stand with you and like minded folks that see this as a naturally occurring cycle within the Holocene interglacial period.
“Yet Arctic sea-ice is unlikely to respond to changes in our CO₂ emissions given its lack of response to consistently increasing CO₂ levels.”
The elephant in the room that the CAGW mob never explains. If CO₂ is the primary cause, why has Arctic sea ice melt not increased, sea level rise slowed down, and why have global temperatures not increased? All of these are conclusive evidence that CO₂ is not the cause of global warming, er, “climate change”.
Not the cause, just the excuse to introduce changes that would otherwise be resisted by people.
CO₂ cannot be responsible for more than 30% of the 20th century warming, and it is probably responsible for less.
The dataset of Cowtan&Way (C&W) has the strongest posive slope of all used datasets of GMSTs in the arctic. If one suggests that the “ice-albedo-feedback” stepped in since 1979 one MUST see an increase in the trend for 75°N-90°N over the time.
This is not the case as the smoothing (9 years) vs. the linear trend shows. Conclusion: the “ice albedo feedback” must have a strong counterpart, perhaps the “thinner ice grows faster than thicker ice”. It makes, that the increase of the sea ice volume between November and April is as higher, as lower the volume of sea ice was in the minimum. This effect is well known in the literature: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/10052464/1/Stroeve_Warm%20winter%2C%20thin%20ice_VoR.pdf . The self accelerating sea ice melt (“death spiral”) is a ferry tale but one of the most used slogans of some alarmists, waiting every year for the “cliff”. ridicolous!
Most of the melting occurred between 1997 and 2007 and had been generally accelerating until that time. So suggesting a +ve f/b was a credible hypothesis at that time.
However, with another decade of data when things have been behaving very differently, that hypothesis can now be rejected. Not that any alarmist has even bothered to look at the data since.
I agree. There has never been good data supporting the ice-albedo feedback. A lot of climate science is just guesswork disguised as model output.
Don’t pay the ferryman don’t even fix a price
He’d tell you fairy tales and leaves you – sitting on melting sea ice
oh-oh oh-oh
“is a ferry tale but one of the most used slogans of some alarmists”;
OTOH – what else than fairy tales to await from alarmists!
If I looked at sea ice and “climate change” the way the warmistas all do, based on the temperature rise in just two hours today from sunrise to about 8:30, extrapolating to later today, we’ll all be broiled to death before the Sun goes down…
I have a general observation and question. How valid is historical data that is tens or hundreds of millions of years old? That question is based on the observation that continental configuration and drift has resulted in an earth that is configured very differently . Continents have drifted apart, drifted together, seas have changed. We know that the ocean drives climate on land and that there are cyclical currents that alter the climate. Is it a reasonable to suggest that sea ice, or lack thereof, may also be a function of fundamentally different currents over time as a result of continental drift?
Excellent point. An area of land that is located at one place on the globe today could well have been located in a climatically much different part of the world millions of years ago even if the “global” climate happened to be exactly the same. For example, Antarctica is at the South polar region *now* but where was it located on the globe millions of years ago and would that different location (and all that entails, including differences in the flow of the oceans around it) not affect the type of climate it would experience?
I’m think more of things like the closing of the Panama connection between the Atlantic and Pacific, the widening of the Atlantic, the Indian sub-continent impacting the south Asian continent, etc. Things that altered ocean circulation, salinity, etc.
Well those things are related – flip sides of the same coin as it were. The ocean circulation would be altered *because* the land masses are in different locations. And the land masses being in different locations would affect their climate (a currently tropical landmass having previously been in a sub-tropical zone for instance).
For example, Circulation would be different with an Indian sub-continent that is distinctly separated from the Asian continent than it would be with the two connected, And depending on how far of a separation we’re talking about, the climate of the sub-continent could well have been noticeably different (cooler, in the case of being further away from the equator, for instance) to that of the climate where it’s currently located even if the overall global climates were equivalent.
As a matter of fact Antarctica has been at the South Pole ever since the Early Jurassic.
And we know this for a fact, how? (if the answer involves models, it’s not a fact)
The ocean leads the arctic. The Fig.1 2007-2019 increasing sea-ice trend is due to the overall decreasing net incoming solar radiation since 2003.
I still think it’s all the AMO….
…now just figure out why the AMO started a gradual increase at the same time satellites started measuring ice …then flat lined in Jav’s window…2007 – 2018
The AMO went positive sometime in the early-mid 1990s. It is difficult to say because that is the time of the Pinatubo eruption which produced strong cooling itself. This may have kept the AMO from doing an earlier phase change.
So, it wasn’t right at the time the satellites started to take images.
The AMO appears to be one of those things that changes phases relatively quickly and then stays there for a long time before the next phase change. This would explain why it flat lines. The ice initially melts with a change of phase and then reaches an equilibrium point which lasts until the next phase change.
Richard….not went positive
The AMO started getting warmer at the same time satellites started measuring ice…
…figure out why the AMO started a gradual increase at the same time satellites started measuring ice…
There is a positive trend in the whole AMO actual temperature record from 1856-2019 that fairly closely matches the positive trend in a PMOD-v2SN TSI model I made.
The 1885-1915 period when the AMO anomaly was declining had a sunspot number average of 53, whereas the next 30 years when AMO was rising and not falling the average sunspot number was about 80. The drop in the AMO from 1961-1976 was during lower and falling sunspot activity averaging 74, followed by the AMO rising from 1976 when sunspots averaged 93.
A simple rule of thumb derived from that is falling/low solar activity leads to the same in the AMO anomalies & vice versa over decades, while solar cycle activity always lead to positive increases from wherever the anomaly starts from at the start of a solar cycle. HadSST3 follows these simple rules too, what I refer to as ‘solar supersensitivity’.
Looking at North Atlantic Heat Content, there is an increase from 1976 to about 2006 that peaks a few years after the solar modern maximum ended in 2003/4, followed by a delayed peak response to solar cycle 24.
AMO and NA OHC are closely related, and both are related to solar energy level and duration. The PDO has a different temporal correspondence to solar forcing, attributable to basin size and the presence/absence of the NW warm pool.
exactly Bob….”Looking at North Atlantic Heat Content, there is an increase from 1976 to about 2006 ”
…and the North Atlantic Current pumps directly into the Arctic Ocean
The PDO went positive phase in 1978.
The PDO went positive phase in 1978.
The PDO was positive phase 55% of the time 1978-01 to 2019-01.
Why are you eliding the ~2M sq. km loss of Arctic sea ice extent between Sept. 2006 and Sept. 2007?
Yes, that is a bit odd, because including it would have made the difference between the pre- and post-2007 trends much greater.
What a climate denier Ma Nature is! She should be ashamed of herself.