After years of trying to suppress their release, and finally being ordered to be released by a judge, they are now public, and we have them here. This will remain as a “top post” for a day, new stories will be below this one.
There’s quite a treasure trove, but also some duplications from previous releases.
First a look at the release letter from University of Arizona:
The files released cover emails from Michael Mann to Malcolm Hughes, Eugene Wahl, Caspar Amman, Ray Bradley, and Jonathan Overpeck. Plus there were additional requests for anything out of UEA (Phil Jones at CRU).
The FOIA request goes all the way back to December of 2011, it’s taken this long to get released. Mann fought the release all the way.
Here is a sample, where Keith Briffa of CRU says that Mann’s data (and others) do in fact show a Medieval Warm Period.
There’s further arguments from Keith Briffa about Mann’s data, along with Mann claiming that the “screening” process to decide whether or not to include certain proxy data is actually a good thing. There was some blowback a few years ago when it was discovered that Mann’s pre-screening really skewed the results in his favor….yet in these email exchanges, he thinks the process is “objective”:
Here’s Mann responding to the publication of the McIntyre and McKittrick paper in E&E:
There’s quite a bit to wade through, and some emails are duplicated from the original Climategate release.
I invite readers to read and review these documents, and to point out any items of interest in comments.
Here are the documents, available for download:
Chris Horner, Government Accountability Oversight – Response Close 2-27-19 (00115527xC3E11)
E E matter. Exemplar Records Release Privilege Log (00115528xC3E11)
ATI-U-of-A-Hughes-Overpeck-FOI-Request
E E – Overpeck. Log of Responsive Nonresponsive Records (00114879xC3E11)
E E. Overpeck email records released to E E 2-5-19 per court order (00114885xC3E11)
Malcolm Hughes – Log of Redactions Peer Review Withholding (00115522xC3E11)
“but also some duplications from previous releases.”
Which should (but won’t) quiet the many claims that the earlier releases were made up and or edited.
Not made up or edited…just taken way out of context. I have seen way worse cherry picking from articles on this website
This website has a mix of professional scientists engineers, knowledgable non professionals, righty non professional contrarians and lefty non professional social scientists and trolls (nearly all consensus climate scientists seem to fear to comment here on the number one science blog in the world, although not one fails to come and read the site’s articles).
You’ve made my point. Climate science does not meet the standards of a science. In my opinion, its no where near the fair standard of a motley mixed science blog.
How do you take out of context using tricks to hide?
Using tricks to hide is not science and the context does not matter.
They sort the proxies to see if they have a signal, then they declare that the fact that the proxies have a signal is proof of their original claims.
And then declare that this is fine as, when other people sort the proxies to see if they have a signal, they find that the proxies have a signal too.
Re: “We are actually screening all proxies to see if they have a verifiable signal (temperature or precip)-against the instrumental data ”
Sounds reasonable. But what if the “instrumental data” has been adjusted to fit their warming hypothesis, does this become the Cherry Picking fallacy?
Or is it infamous Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy? Only select data that fits your claim?
What then of Mike’s Nature Trick – of deleting data that did not fit?
See: McIntyre, Stephen and Ross McKitrick (2006) Presentation to the National Academy of Sciences on Uncertainties in Paleoclimate Reconstruction
Technical: **McIntyre, Stephen and Ross McKitrick (2005) The M&M Critique of the MBH98 Northern Hemisphere Climate Index: Update and Implications Energy and Environment 16(1) pp. 69-100.
To add the notion that also all relevant “instrumental data” could have been been adjusted massively to fit preconceived notions, would leave one without anything certain at all. Which is the place only die-hard conspiracy theorists want to enter as it facilitates more endless speculation.
Also it would extent the limited question on the validity of the hockey stick to include hundreds more scientists who are dishonest to the bone and/of dangerously incapable of doing their job. Which is a less likely scenario and would need way more explaining.
Either way, nothing is advanced with such theory. Any selection of proxies to include only those which can *affirm* their signal in the instrumental record is the logical thing to do. Proxies which cannot be checked against the instrumental record are simply too uncertain.
Dowser, so if a scientist is ‘certain’ of an alternative hypothesis, it must be okay to use the proxies the consensus guy discarded to prove his hypothesis. This seems very collegial!
fallacy, the instrumental record is far too short for such a use for proxies
and I see you didnt mention strip bark pine cone that Pages and Mann love, even though PNAS said dont use them as they are not reliable
hmmmm
I smell disingenuous shysters a mile off
They sort through a population of similarly sourced proxies and use the ones that work and discard the ones that don’t, which proves the proxies work. Got it. A proxy by type either works or it doesn’t in old school science.
You get a population of similar proxy types that are basically all random noise, then pick the ones with the signal you like.
Climate science calls proxy sorting “tree ring calibration.”
It is similar to judging if a drug cures a disease by only counting how many people recover while ignoring how many die.
Or giving healthy patients a poison and then counting the number who survive as the ones saved from an imaginary deadly disease they all had. Then becoming billionaires fighting the growing epidemic by selling their poison as a breakthrough drug.
If the hockey stick were turned around, it would fit nicely up Mann’s rear end and he could ride it to the ice free north pole.
They simply would select the patients where they saw a relationship between the two variables. In this case, since they know temperature went up, they only select trees (the good ones) where the trees were sensitive to temperature and show the temps going up.
With a drug I guess they would select the patients where the disease is sensitive to the drug and only use those data. 🙂
Only Data that support The UNFCCC is selected and used?
EDITOR: I suggest deleting Bit T’s reply. That kind of profanity doesn’t help this website.
Maxwell’s demon:https://www.auburn.edu/~smith01/notes/maxdem.htm
Also used to contradict the laws of thermodynamics.
Maxwell’s Hammer. Also used for psychological adjustments.
But how do they what signal they are looking for? The fact that the “signal” the pick matches the instrument data doesn’t mean that it does! It could just be totally random, as the fact that lots of proxies do not match shows.
Total confirmation bias – but they don’t even know what they are confirming! It’s no wonder they had to “hide the decline”. Just amateur stuff, at every level.
Perhaps Mike Maxwell should get out of mommas basement in order to understand a joke when he sees one.
I wonder if they are still trying to claim that being asked to do their legal duty is evidence of persecution?
When a group of acolytes, using the same methods and same data get the same results, some people are always surprised.
One word sums up the total behaviour of “The Team” –
perfidy
noun.
deliberate breach of faith or trust; faithlessness; treachery:
an act or instance of faithlessness or treachery.
Excellent word description for the team!
Mark, surprised especially when they all use the Tiljander series upside down.
It’s also important that they know who reviews their papers and that the reviewers are part of “the team”, and critically important to know who reviews every single paper in the field apparently. And obviously, (from Mann’s point of view) if any paper disputes anything he writes, the paper must not have been reviewed by qualified people or he would know.
Speaking of “stunts,” it sure looks like Mann was capable of pulling a few stunts of his own over the course of time, including but not limited to libeling those who disagreed with his dicey contentions.
I wonder how this will affect the Steyn suits.
zero effect on the cei/nro/simberg suit
My theory is that Mann doesn’t want to go to trial and be forced to produce discovery, nor does he want to be forced to testify under oath.
Having said the above, these emails are another nail in the coffin.
He can cancel his own suit any time he wants. However Steyn counter sued. Mann can’t just dismiss that one. He’s going to be forced to produce discovery, and while he can’t be forced to testify, it will be just more evidence if he refuses that privilege.
PS: If he dismisses his own suit, that action can be used by Steyn as evidence of the weakness of Mann’s suit.
He can always take the fifth. What happens then depends on the jurisdiction. link For instance, Maryland and California have different rules. See point 2 in the link. In any event, if he refuses to testify, then he can’t testify at all, not even in his own defense.
I think that, if it goes to trial, Mann’s goose is cooked. However, that opinion plus a couple of bucks will get you a cup of coffee. 😉
I believe the 5th only applies in criminal cases.
I believe MarkW is correct, pleading the 5th applies only to criminal matters, not civil. Generally, you cannot avoid the witness stand in a civil procedure, unless you can show the court that your testimony would have no probative value whatsoever.
The 5th can be invoked to refuse to testify in a civil case. But, unlike in a criminal case, doing so can and will be used against the person. The jury will be instructed that it may infer guilt from the refusal to testify. And he will lose as a result.
can’t take the fifth in a civil lawsuit
Details in: Invoking The Fifth Amendment In Civil Cases
…or he could just lie.
You got that wrong…Mann has to testify…he’s the plaintiff in a civil trial. He has to tell the court his side of the story. It’s up to him to prove his case
If he chooses not to testify in his case, he might be called as an adverse witness in Mr. Steyn’s defense or in Mr. Steyn’s case. His right to “take the Fifth” protects against self incrimination. He has not, to my knowledge, been charged with a crime and would, therefore, need to show that his testimony might subject him to criminal prosecution. What crimes does he believe he may be charged with if he answers each question put to him? No “blanket” claim of immunity should be granted him and, therefore, he should be required to defend his “Fifth Amendment Right” every time he asserts it. Doing so is never good in front of a jury.
Yet it works great to plead the fifth in front of congress, and say I do not remember 50 times to the FBI. ( If you are a democrat)
Actually, this procedural memory loss is also affecting us here in Canada.
In case you missed it, Prime Minister Zoolander finally got caught pretending to know what he is doing, and is embroiled in a major bribery scandal.
His “fixer”, i.e., the actual brains of the outfit, testified this week.
Of course…he can’t remember much.
Perhaps, instead of looking into other factors such as aluminum, etc., Alzheimer researchers should look into how obvious liars in the public eye suddenly suffer from memory loss.
Commie, this is the genius of Steyn. Mann is locked into the suit because Steyn countersued for 20million plus. Mann can’t back out or dismiss it because that would be support for the countersuit. Steyn has already submitted his discovery docs. This suit is going to do more to discourage frivolous suits for the purpose of punishing critics than the seemingly toothless anti-SLAPP legislation.
Just another WIKI article slanted toward “the team” goals
WIKI has become one of the least reliable sources
Should be called connellyleaks.
I just want it to warm up. Anyone that says it is warmer now than the late 80 😉
Who knows what it was like in the 30s but we sure have a lot of records from then
Agreed! This is not the warmest even in the last hundred years. Every period and temperature that doesn’t fit the AGW narrative has been adjusted until it did. staggering that governments that pretend to look after our interests have been complicit in this massive fraud.
That’s what governments do: lie about everything to increase their own power. I can’t think of any major issue they don’t lie about.
We might have a lot of records from the 30’s but in Australia they havegotten progressively colder with each revised data set by the BOM.
Sounds like you agree he did it wrong. He was the first hokey stick. It has been proven that random data using his methods always produces a hockey stick. So, what are the odds he did it wrong but got the right answer? A million to one? More logical explanation is follow ons assumed it was right and choose variables /assumptions that gave same results. I have seen over twenty papers here that show no CAGW. Do you accept that as final proof against CAGW? If not why do you expect others to accept wikipedia?
Another acolyte who actually believes that it is only science when she agrees with it.
At the time he was pulling this malarky, temperatures were almost certainly changing because that’s what they do and have always done. They could only go two directions-up or down. So I guess there was a 50% chance he was going to be right. Since the general direction since the LIA had been up that was the best bet. Now that we have seen a cyclical high in the 80’s ( never mind the adjustments), the best bet is downward.
There’s nothing cutting edge about 20 year old work.
They also did not use a variety of techniques, they all used variations of the already disproven methods that Mann used.
Every thing in your chart was “checked out” a long time ago and found to be fatally flawed. I’m not surprised that you didn’t know that.
PS: I’m not surprised to find out that you also have been paid to feign indignation that Mann should be required to follow the law.
Checked out be experts in statistics.
I’m really not surprised that you have no knowledge regarding the sordid history behind the so called hockey stick graphs. Paid trolls rarely do.
Now mark denies the MWP
For an English major, you sure do have problems understanding English. I’d asked for a refund on the tuition if I were you.
Please indicate where in your fevered imagination I denied the MWP.
other guys (Briffa) said Mann data DOES show MWP.
you (Mark) said Mann methods were shoddy.
Blinders-On (or leach … don’t know which) makes illogical jump that you disagree with MWP because Mann is shoddy.
‘Now mark denies the MWP’
Gee, only two grammar errors on that single, snarky little post.
Not bad for an english major.
Steven Mosher
March 6, 2019 at 3:16 am
“The MWP was proven by hundreds of studies long before these charts came out. They also proved that the MWP was a major climate event, not the tiny blip shown in these disproven charts.”
“name 10 and then explain why you accept that evidence.”
https://us-issues.com/tag/medieval-warm-period/
Red balloons in the graph at the link show (hundreds of) studies that found the MWP was as warm or warmer than the current warm period. Blue balloons indicate the MWP was colder than this. Green is wetter. Yellow is drier.
Additional evidence can be found here:
http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/mwpp.php
http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/qualitative.php
http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/scientists.php
http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/institutions.php
“what evidence exactly in those 100s of studies did you accept and why.”
“10 will do, you should be able to name them of the top of your head”
As you know, almost nobody who doesn’t specialize in the field of paleoclimatology can answer your specific questions.
However, anybody that is not color blind(can tell red from blue) and not authentic science blind can see 10 times as many studies showing temperatures this warm or warmer during the Medieval Warm Period as not. That profound agreement amongst the majority of studies for this period is so convincing that it defies logic to go against them.
Maybe you should go back to purging your twitter when proven wrong Mosh, or padding out your CV some more with what appears to be, in my opinion, gross misrepresentation?
Your comment is indicative of what you actually bring to the CliSci debate, ie snide meaningless snipes.
Mark – Helsinki
Steven doesn’t pad out his CV, his employer generously did that by anointing him the title “scientist”.
I’m gonna get me a job as a cleaner at Berkeley then I can be called a scientist as well and y’all must listen to me.
Easy when you know how.
hey I’m not the one deny charts that clearly show a MWP, mark is.
CliSci debate?
there is one in the published science, join us!
Steve, you really should learn when to stop digging.
1) The charts do not “clearly show” the MWP.
2) Denying the validity of these charts does not even imply that I deny the existence of the MWP. The MWP was proven by hundreds of studies long before these charts came out. They also proved that the MWP was a major climate event, not the tiny blip shown in these disproven charts.
3) When are you going to learn how to do basic science?
He’s an English major. “doing science” wasn’t required. Apparently poorly spelled snark was.
Strawman Mosher,
Set up your strawman argument by allegation,
and then knock it down by pretense, because…. science!
How childishly lame.
‘How childishly lame.’
Pretty obvious too.
So mark
you believe in the MWP?
Thats interesting?
1. what evidence do you have? specifically? any thermomters? resolution? precision?
2. From how many locations do you have evidence? is that enough ? how do you
know?
3. Was the average temperature in the MWP warmer than today? does average
temperature have a meaning?
4. when you say warmer do you mean tmax? tavg? or temperature integrated
at every hour?
5. Do you evalutae evidence of warmth THEN with the same standard that
you use to evaluate evidence of warmth today.
but glad you said you agree there was an MWP.. now to your evidence and why you accept it. this should be fun
“The MWP was proven by hundreds of studies long before these charts came out. They also proved that the MWP was a major climate event, not the tiny blip shown in these disproven charts.”
Hundreds?
name 10 and then explain why you accept that evidence.
go ahead, I’ll wait
what evidence exactly in those 100s of studies did you accept and why.
10 will do, you should be able to name them of the top of your head
http://notrickszone.com/2016/05/31/body-of-proof-large-number-of-studies-show-medieval-warm-period-prominent-in-southern-hemisphere/
Even by your low standards steve, that was pathetic.
Only you and the other acolytes have questioned the existence of a MWP that was warmer than current temperatures by a degree or two.
Hundreds of studies from all over the world have confirmed this.
One broken study using invalid proxies and invalid statistical measures pretended to erase the MWP and LIA.
PS: Once again, instead of defending your earlier mistakes, you attempt to change the subject.
How predictable.
I’d just like to add this:
Mosher – this might be one of the most deliberately dishonest threads you’ve ever attempted to get started.
This comment was me
m March 6, 2019 at 7:05 am
Must have mistyped my handle or deleted it somehow. Sorry about the inadvertent sock puppetry.
I feel your pain M, Happens to me too. I start type in the “J” in the name box and select my name from the resulting list. Only sometime it doesn’t fill in, leaving the Name box with just the “J”, usually I catch it and try again, but one time I didn’t and posted. Now the list shows 2 entries: one for my full name and one with just the “J”.
Hundreds of studies Steve? The problem is that Mann’s studies and those like it contradict the entire sciences of History and Archaeology. I’ll grant that these sciences do not produce figures for temps, but they do indeed show when when changes occur, middens alone demonstrate how the diet changed with the climate.
But their data do not fit the narrative, hence there has only been one historian involved with the IPCC in the last 5 reports. For most reasonable people, to find out what was happening in Roman times you would ask a Historian, yet climate science never does. Why is that?
Markw
Not the words “believe in the MWP”
Even at this stage, he doesn’t understand it’s not about belief.
The evidence for it is strong, as are the anecdotal historical records, so much so that statistical mumbo jumbo by a few ideologues with vested interest have done nothing coming even close to giving enough evidence to show otherwise
The latest pages nonsense with Antarctica and boreholes is another fiasco.
They deleted the to 15 meters because “weather”, yet all of the data, comes from layers that were the top 15 meters at some point, yet pages dont explain how these layers are less reliable when 15 meters or higher and get more reliable as they get buried.
To try discredit the MWP you have to ignore the vast quality of evidence, actual evidence, historical.. social and scientific.
Then you have to use screening methods to exclude any proxy that has high medieval values that doesn’t correspond to modern temperature record warming and include any proxy that has flat medieval values and corresponds with the modern record
CLUE: Pages assume any proxy series that correlates with the modern warming record, is a valid proxy, to hell with all other factors.
Then, next you have to either use strip bark pine cone, or tun your lake sediment proxy upside down to get your blade, while refusing to accept that the lake sediment proxy is completely polluted by changes at the site, that they attempt to dismiss with arm waving and 0 supporting evidence.
Sometimes, you have to come up with seemingly arbitrary screening methods for one of your proxies that has high medieval values, that none of your other series were subjected to (Gergis Karoly)
The only thing worth pointing out here is this.
Earth’s climate evolution is LINEAR, not CYCLICAL. The planet is never the same from one year to the next, and there is vast difference geologically between today and 10,000 years ago, the past cannot tell you what the temperature should be today, to .1c, which is what Mann and Pages have more or less claimed by claiming the world should be cooling and “more than 100% of warming is due to CO2 emissions”
The data manipulation in Australia is the most brazen example of cheating I have ever witnessed with data, they don’t even care, sometimes subtracting nearly 3c from the record of the past, without any actual real justification for doing so.
Maybe Mosh should go talk to the BOM, given they are quite obviously revising the past to fit the agenda. I am sure such blatant revision of historical data irks a scientist like Mosher.. I say that with 95% confidence like, VERY LIKELY /sarc
Also, Maybe Mosh can tell us why he has no issue with Zeke’s ludicrously junk science claim, claiming to know OHC to a ridiculously accurate degree in the 1950s to 1990s 😀
Such clams are not only unscientific, but worse, they are flat earth type claims dressed in a white coat like the TV ad scientists selling you iffy remedies from the 60s and 70s
Does Mosh have a white coat I wonder 😀
Darn my coffee sticky keys.. I almost have to punch some letters on my keyboard.
dagnabit
Right, because that debate has not been shown very clearly to completely loaded against any kind of scepticism. really, if you are so confident that you are right, why resort to such ridiculous statements?
Because ridiculous statements is all he has and he knows it.
Mosher writes on the MWP
Archealogical evidence that Greenland was as warm or warmer for a long time is unequivocal. Whether it was global or not, the models cant produce it so they can be discounted as being able to reproduce Global climate on that basis.
History tells us much about reality of the MWP. Just as it does about the LIA. The history of Greenlandic settlement tells about both. Many thousands of historical accounts inform.
Did you know that during the Revolutionary war in the US, that when the British took Manhattan, Washing had a warehouse full of cannons that he didn’t want to fall into enemy hands. He sent a stealthy group to roll the cannons out onto the ice where they rolled them to New Jersey. How to interpret this odd event? History can be reliable scientific evidence. I certainly trust this more than I do the highly malleable modern temperature series that continues to be wrought by the clime syndicate.
Indeed.
One of my faves:
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/34439/34439-h/34439-h.htm
1808.
AUGUST.
8.—A remarkable storm occurred at Norwich. Streets were inundated and cellars flooded. “The roaring of the waters in falling from the roof to the lower leads of the Cathedral was so tremendous as literally to drown the noise of the thunder that accompanied it.”
1809.
JANUARY.
28.—In consequence of a rapid thaw, the low lying parts of Norwich were flooded. “Some of the houses were six or seven feet under water,” and boats were rowed in the street at St. Martin-at-Oak. The marshes below Norwich were so inundated that the course of the river could not be traced, and the barge proceeding to Yarmouth had to return, in consequence of the men being unable to find the channel.
1816.
FEBRUARY.
16.—A high tide at Yarmouth. The Denes and the west side of the haven were inundated. A similar occurrence had not been recorded since 1791. A flood also took place at Lynn.
Etc.
I mean, words have meaning for me. “Unprecedented” means either “never happened before in recorded history” or “hasn’t happened since”.
Even back then, as per above (…since 1791) they knew this.
Now, “unprecedented” means “a few years ago. Maybe, please don’t look”…
PPS: Since these e-mails were from 15 to 20 years ago, I would really like to know why you are so convinced that they are “cutting edge”? Is that what the talking points memo told you to say?
Climatology has made no progress in the last thirty years so, yes, they are still cutting edge.
The uncertainty in the estimates of climate sensitivity has not reduced since the IPCC was formed. Despite better computers, more satellites and more measurements at sea. Climatology has failed to make any progress.
The only other “sciences” with such an abject record of failure are Ufology and Cryptozoology. For much the same reasons. All three pseudoscience assume they know the truth and look for evidence to support that rather than looking for evidence and seek theories to explain it.
LOL!
“The only other “sciences” with such an abject record of failure are Ufology and Cryptozoology.”
I take great exception to this statement. Great strides have been made in Ufology in the past 30 years. Indeed, we have developed a whole classification system for all the different alien races which visit this planet. There is even a Wikipedia entry on the subject.
The science of Cryptozoology has made similar strides. For example, “Nessie”, the loch Ness monster has been positively identified as a plesiosaur, a species of marine reptile which has survived since the age of the dinosaurs. “Champ”, a similar creature living in Lake Champlain, in the US, is an Ichthyosaur.
Further, we have great video of “The Great Ape” known as Bigfoot in north America and as Yeti in Asia.
It is only Climate “science” which has gone nowhere in the past 30 years. And no wonder, they are the ones chasing shadows and mirages.
Akshually……
Fascinating real science about the “Yeti”: they took two different hair samples from about a thousand miles apart (Bhutan, Pakistan), and tested them against a DNA databank.
Turns out the DNA sez: polar bear.
Not just that, but a polar bear from 10,000 years ago. So, in other words, a previously undiscovered bear species that branched off when brown and polar bears did.
As the saying goes, truth is stranger than fiction. Fiction has to make sense.
Bigfoot and Yeti, what have you got against Yowies?
The only other “sciences” with such an abject record of failure are Ufology and Cryptozoology
You owe Ufology and Cryptozoology massive apologies, they do not deserve being compared to the snake pit of charlatans that contain the likes of M. Mann
Nobody’s demanding that we rework the world’s economy to protect Big Foot and UFOs.
Don’t give the lefty-loons any ideas.
Likewise unfair comparisons with astrologers, who can tell you exactly where each planet will be at any given time.
They are truly the modern Piltdown men. Amazing that the epicenter is EAU, what’s in the water there?
Absolutely right.
Look at the.progress made with respect to the wide band claimed for Climate Sensitivity.
This is the most central and fundamental issue and no progress in 30 years.
Things in this so called science appear to progress at glacial pace!
There has been a lot of progress pegging ECS toward the low end. The powers that be just don’t want to acknowledge that.
But, but, but! Aren’t the glaciers receding?
RayG,
In the next glacial cycle, Hansen will be pointing at New York and claiming “See, I was right, New York is covered with water!”
He’ll never point out that he failed to mention its solid state.
Well put Mr Courtney, your final sentence reminds me of the witch hunt against President Trump.
“We we know what crime we would like to convict him on – so now we need to get/invent evidence”
Sound familiar?
Agreed – although, I would call it a ‘lynch mob’ rather than a ‘witch-hunt’.
I’d say it’s a bit of both. They’re witch-hunting to find an excuse to lynch (impeach) him on.
Oh, I’d say they’ve got a little more than impeachment in mind – IF they can get him out of office, my guess they will do everything can to destroy the man, everything he’s built, everyone he knows or loves, up to and including imprisonment… or worse if they can manage.
This is hate.
Indeed Joel. They absolutely see it as a divine mission to utterly destroy him, his family, his associates, and his supporters. and they’ll stop at nothing to do it. We saw a just a tiny glimpse of the lengths they’re willing to go during the Kavanaugh confirmation fight.
Isn’t it remarkable how many ‘divine missions’ are motivated by hate?
Look at the senders/recipients of these emails, then look at the people at the top of climate science today – you’ll see the vast majority are still there, only in even more influential positions.
Instead of ending their careers, it enhanced them.
If that isn’t corruption…
Those 20 different contributors may all agree, but they could all still qualify for the “Wilson Award ”
“When the Paris Exhibition [of 1878] closes, electric light will close with it and no more will be heard of it.”- Oxford professor Erasmus Wilson
But I’m digressing and would like to turn to Phenology
The good people at the Royal Society have amalgamated the 250 years of 3m records from the UK’s Phenology Network and they’ve produced a graph from them. https://bit.ly/2C4ynQe The black bars are periods of 25 years. The higher up the stack the bars – the later that plants have started to flower. the further down, the earlier. Obviously, as the climate gets warmer flowering will take place much sooner.
The latest 25 year period is not far off the same flowering timing as that at the beginning of the 20th century and if climate was changing so much then there would be a clearly identifiable change – but there isn’t. Plant data does not need adjusting and the records have been compiled scientifically.
So, which scientists are wrong?
Some days I think we should abandon ancient languages for scientific terminology.
I started reading that comment as referring to phrenology. It was making perfect sense until you mentioned flowering plants, when I realized that I was misreading an “r” into the term – as the similarities between those “consensus scientists” and modern “consensus scientists” are remarkable.
You are not alone. I did the same thing Writing Observer.
Phrenology. Flowering plants. Consensus scientists. Blooming idiots.
Good catch. Almost no warming if you look back 250 years here is the paper.
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2010.0291
The CMIP data set uses about 100 different computer models to try to predict the climate. And they’re all always wrong because they use the same flawed assumptions regarding CAGW. It doesn’t matter HOW MANY you dredge up if they’re all wrong.
RE: the Wiki chart – if you really want to see how badly flawed it is, try start here https://wattsupwiththat.com/?s=hockey+stick
Many peer reviewed papers cited, but I’m not going to do your homework for you.
Don’t you mean “CHIMP” data? If they type long enough?…
Mann reconstructions along with others (Gergis 2012) are circular, the screening fallacy, a rudimentary statistical error, that of the selection on the dependent variable:
?w=640
Happy perusing, all!!
Have fun!
Regards,
Bob
Oh, yeh. Fun irony for those who like that sort of thing — from PDF page 1134-1135 of the “E E. Overpeck email records released to E E 2-5-19” pile is this gem from Overpack to Pinar Yilmaz of Exxon:
“I’m also quite intrigued by what Exxon-Mobil and the University of Arizona could do together on the climate change front.”
On page 978 of 1050 in the 2019/02/00249611.pdf file, there is this from Malcolm Hughes in 2000 (which I don’t remember from the Hughes email archive released earlier),and long before M&M got involved in Mann’s “Nature trick”:
===================
From: Malcolm Hughes
To: Michael E. Mann
Cc: rbradley@geo.umass.edu
Subject: Re: close call
Date: Monday, July 31, 2000 3:00:26 PM
Dear Mike – I have read and re-read the draft, and have come to the
conclusion that it would be a mistake to publish it. I would also urge
you not to publish it. I think my enthusiasm aroused by the first
version of the figure allowed me to ignore the most important
problem. In the 1999 GRL paper the dangers of using too few
proxies for a hemispheric reconstruction were rehearsed – that was
our intention. That this new version of your post-1980 calculations
should be so sensitive to the omission of a single record is very
worrying indeed. It should also be noted that nothing much happens
in the ‘new’ reconstruction until the last three years. I fear this would
give a wonderful opportunity to those who would discredit the
approach we used in MBH 1998 and 1999. They would almost
certainly seize it to attack the use of the MBH99 reconstruction in
the IPCC.
On reflection, I think it would be much wiser for use to keep our
powder dry, and if challenged in a creditable forum point out that we
are working on assembling a dense and high quality proxy data set
that comes out nearer to present.
When will you next be in Amherst? Cheers, Malcolm
=======
(my bold)
Note: Does a real scientist “work on assembling a dense and high quality data set comes out nearer to present.”???Or do real scientists work on data sets and let them speak for themselves.
This statement by Hughes goes directly to suggest the mindset of a Cherry-picking, manipulative hack scientist working on message, and not concerned about science or truth.
It’s clear that their efforts are directed toward promoting a message and not advancing science.
It’s a climategate mail
So the Climategate mails were not an invention then
Steven Mosher actually wrote the book on it with Tom Fuller. I have a copy.
Shame he apparently didn’t learn anything from the experience.
I’ve considered myself in the ‘skeptic’ ranks for over a decade. I don’t ever recall an argument that the climate gate emails were not real. To the contrary, I seem to recall the focus by the ‘victims’ was more of ‘who did it’.
Oh, there are enough commentators on other sites who will tell you that the emails are fake.
I think its more of the Step 1 of progressive tactics: always start muddying the waters early.
In this case, they start off with “the emails are fake”, then when they know they can’t defend that one, move to:
Step 2: “you can’t prove all the emails are real”, then on to:
Step 3: “they are real, but out of context”, followed by:
Step 4: “ok, they’re in context, but you don’t have them all, so its unfair to use them”, followed by:
Step 5: “its unfair to have serious, hard working scientists provide the remaining emails that will clarify what we are trying to keep muddy”.
What is wrong as scientists they know there are issues with what they are doing yet they are trying to hide them because of politics because they need a narrative. If anyone ever doubts you can’t be a scientist and and activist that statement right there is why you can’t.
Wow.
Joel,
I think this comment may be unfair to Hughes. I read it that ‘closer to present’ means ‘closer in time to present’, a dig at Mann’s proxy set that stops many years back and let’s him splice in the unsmoothed modern temperature record. Looks like you may have been thinking ‘closer to present temperatures’, which would imply cherry-picking.
In other words, your work doesn’t stack up, but let’s keep believing it does. Don;t say anything until we can somehow cobble together data that does prove what we ant.
Hilarious 🙂
Not so hilarious Eric when the vast majority of the free worlds media still slavishly parrots this fake emergency. Sadly I believe they’ve proof read it all and come to the conclusion that there’s nothing to see here move on because the establishment/media will cover for them.
We can’t fight this with reason anymore.
Both of the featured emails were available before. The self-confidence, arrogance and bullying are all in evidence.
I think the team found comfort in their introspective back-biting club. Remarkable. So clear and leaving no room for second thoughts. And none of it sounded honest – it was about “team” not “truth” at all. I find it very academic in the modern sense.
As far as i can determine in pdf named: 00249611.pdf are only Hughes. These are NOT the Overpeck (during the period of his involvement in AR4) emails we’ve been waiting for. These are the Malcolm Hughes emails and nothing goes beyond 2005.
And all the other documents posted here are simply 1 page letters.
===
Now I can’t get to the 00249611.pdf document anymore. Everything is now linking to the same PDF document???!!!
What happened?
Anthony, CTM, mods,
Seriously, You need to check the actual URL links to the PDF documents above. They now seem to all be pointing to the same cover letter. I cannot get to the 1,050 page pdf anymore (I do have a copy of it saved now though on my computer). But I cannot get the Overpeck file. I’ve have checked this in both FireFox and Safari browsers. Same for both. All links point to the cover letter now.
Did someone at WordPress hack your website/post here?
Joel
(Click on the blue numbers or the words that are BELOW the PDF image, the PDF image always show the cover letter, ignore that) MOD
Nothing wrong on this end.
You might also find interesting these news. Michael Crichton’s “State of Fear” more actual every day.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tomwarren/wwf-world-wide-fund-nature-parks-torture-death
On page 389 of the Overpeck emails, here he is in September 22, 2005 lamenting about Crichton’s State of Fear novel, and he disses on his fellow scientists who “”think” they are climate savvy.” (his words) for believing Crichton
Too funny.
==========================
From ???@??? Thu Sep 22 00:12:22 2005
To: hegerl@duke.edu
From: Jonathan Overpeck
Subject: Re: Fwd: Inhofe activities
Cc: TomCrowley
Bcc:
X-Attachments:
Message-Id:
In-Reply-To:
References:
Re: Fwd: Inhofe activities
Hi guys – Being on sabbatical, I’m missing more of this kind of
stuff than usual. Quite interesting, however, so thanks for sending.
Looks like I got it too, but I read your email first.
I did buckle under and read Crichton’s book. It’s pretty amazing.
The sad thing is that I’ve talked peers (e.g., Mo Raymo – another
Brownie like me and Tom) who "think" they are climate savvy
scientists, who actually got fooled by his very selective use of
science.
If someone had time, it would be useful to post (e.g., on real
JTO-019581
climate – must already be there, but I haven’t looked) a foot-note, by
foot-note rebuttal of his book. Shocked to see it is getting this kind
of traction.</
You really need to take lessons in sarcasm.
If true, that’s sad.
‘You really need to take lessons in sarcasm.’
There are a couple of ‘Joels’ that post here – O’Bryan’s the smart one – I’m the sarcastic one.
My post was originally in response to another poster. When her posts were removed, mine slid up so that it looks like it’s in response to O’Bryan.
Gotcha.
“… climate savvy scientists, who actually got fooled by his very selective use of
science …”.
=============================================
Among the claims found in State of Fear (Michael Crichton 2004):
.carbon dioxide stimulates plant growth (p. 421).
.since 1980, the Sahara Desert has been shrinking, not expanding (p. 421).
.the rate of emergence of new diseases has not changed since 1960 (p. 421).
.there are no accurate estimates for the rate of species extinction (p. 422).
.extreme weather, including hurricanes, has not become more frequent (P. 426).
.a renewable-energy technology that can replace the use of fossil fuels does not exist (p. 479).
.Antarctica is getting colder, and the thickness of the ice is increasing (P- 193)*
.the urban heat-island effect on the temperature record has been underestimated (p. 384)
All the claims are stand up today * except Antarctic cooling but certainly there has been no net warming during the entire sixty-year record.
https://www.scientificexploration.org/docs/19/jse_19_2_deming.pdf
Good summary, Chris. I have State of Fear and regularly offer it to my dysfunctional friends, you know the Greenies, and they react to the offer like offering Roughing It to a Mormon.
I’ve tried that too – invariably, I get a variation on the ‘appeal to authority’ – ‘he’s just a science fiction writer’.
Except one young lady who was more concerned that the two main characters would become a romantic item.
Sigh.
Chritton is “just a science fiction writer” with an MD.
The thing he said in that book that made me stop and go – woah – was when he talked about the great northern “primeval” forests of North America. Before they took root men were living here.
He left way too soon.
yup
tim flannerys got ties and is “concerned”
funny how alt news is sledged but AC will run buzzfeeds at any time
even when theyre admitted lies, they dont run retractions either.
ie some of the trump bashing /russian ones.
Buzzfeed was moral advocacy, rather than journalism (hard news reporting). Once your readers no longer believe the publication/website you write for, they won’t bother returning.
Moral advocates don’t die, they only fade away…..
WUWT’ers,
Anthony’s links above no longer work, as they all point to the same cover letter.
Go to this website (below) to get the actual documents.
http://climatelitigationwatch.org/university-of-arizona-climategate-records-in-full/
Joel
PS: and be advised, these are not the Overpeck emails that we’ve been waiting for from Dr. David Schnare.
(Click on the blue numbers or the words that are BELOW the PDF image, the PDF image always show the cover letter, ignore that) MOD
Found it at climatelitigatiowatch.org finally:
here are Overpeck’s emails:
http://climatelitigationwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/E-E.-Overpeck-email-records-released-to-E-E-2-5-19-per-court-order-00114885xC3E11.pdf
The damage these individuals did to the credibility of science in general is incalculable.
Not to science but certainly to climate science.
They have damaged science.
One area that has not been raised that was damaged irretrievably is the trust that can be put in research papers. What climategate and this mail dump have shown is that you cannot rely on the ethics of authors of papers. This leads to a requirement for repeatability and replication – that other areas of science are now repeatedly failing. Peer review appears to be meaningless and often no more than a technical writing review.
The days that papers could be cited without repeating, replicating or finding 3rd party replication of their research have gone.
The loss of trust in scientists may never be reversed
There used to be ramifications for publishing poor papers – public chastisement by leaders in the field, loss of respect and standing, loss of support, loss of position etc.
Today, unless caught blatantly creating fraudulent data, there appears to be no penalty for poor quality work. And in climate science, since the data appears completely malleable, nothing is off the table. As long as you can add a publication to your CV, all’s good.
As always, good to bookmark:
https://www.google.ca/search?{google:acceptedSuggestion}oq=retrac&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=retraction+watch
Remarkably, climate science is almost immune to the replication crisis.
And I think we all know why…
I still remember in grad school when this fraud came to speak and received a standing ovation from the academic faculty in attendance.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwang_Woo-suk
There was no evidence of fraud publicly available at the time, but I had strong suspicions at the time based on his claims.
For one, he said only one technician could successfully produce the cloned hESC, and that her secret was that she would sit in a rocking chair and sing to the incubators.
I was heavily involved in cell culture experiments at the time, and i was never so desperate to try singing to the petri dishes just in case that was the secret sauce to make all my experiments turn out how i would like them to.
I was surprised how many scientists would applaud something so blatantly unscientific just because the person saying it had gotten some notoriety.
Ian W
Confidence can be re-established (eventually) by the supervisors of academic employees. The young, ambitious and deeply-flawed scientists discussing the subversion of their moral code should have been recognized and dealt with summarily by their academic seniors. It was not at the time.
There are contributing facets for what followed. Greed clearly is a factor, a feeling of unaccountability, arrogance being substituted for the simple morality of telling the truth.
Truth became a game to “win”. Huh? They sought to redefine what is perceived to be true to win an argument. As time passed, they got so far into the defence of their silly initial stance, and as the evidence against their claims mounted, turning back became impossible because of the terrible consequences for them personally if they did. They settled, as Mann did in 2008, for publishing papers, or guiding others to do the same, that made the same basic claims but leaned toward more defensible positions.
Don’t forget to check the academic parentage of published researchers. Sometimes it explains a lot. Whose papers support the earlier works of their supervisors? Who supervised Amman’s PhD thesis? You get the idea? Follow the lineage of flawed ideas.
Example:
The currently circulating claims of the WHO (including on the WHO website) that cooking fire smoke “kills millions of people per year” comes directly from Michael Johnson of Berkeley, who sits on the relevant committee at the WHO. Johnson was a PhD student of Kirk R Smith who started the whole “solid fuels are dirty” and “kill millions”, based on scanty work in India in the nineties. Smith was the first PhD student of John Holdren, alarmist science advisor to Obama. Holdren was the first PhD student of John Ehrlich of “Population bomb” fame.
The Climategate actors are institutionally and academically incestuous – with the predictable result one might expect from any study of inbreeding: increasingly defective ideas that have less and less viability in the long run.
Mega-updings! You nailed it (or I should say I agree completely with you).
When I follow the comments here at WUWT, not very often but today is “special”, Feymann’s famous talk “Cargo Cult Science” always comes to mind. The “scientists”, like Mann et. al., who play science to only to “win” …. they are only fooling themselves. They are anti-science.
http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm
“But this long history of learning how to not fool ourselves—of having utter scientific integrity—is, I’m sorry to say, something that we haven’t specifically included in any particular course that I know of. We just hope you’ve caught on by osmosis.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that. After you’ve not fooled yourself, it’s easy not to fool other scientists. You just have to be honest in a conventional way after that. ”
As far as I can tell, it’s you guys here at WUWT that have the integrity to not “fool yourself”. Keep up the fantastic work.
Excellent point about the ‘parentage’ of the main actors in the AGW stage play.
+1
Very well put.
Amman’s supervisor was Dr M Mann.
+10
All I can say is, “WOO-HOO!!!
I have the acronym that most accurately describes the climate alarmists.
Scientific Clowns Undermining Mankind…
May I suggest adding a silent “P,” for “pseudo-.”
I’ve come up with an acronym as well:
HICC-UP
Human Induced Climate Change – UnProven
As in, “our models have encountered a HICC-UP
We only want good proxies. Bad, “denier” proxies are unwelcome in a Mann’s world.
Yes that is actual the worst part .. it’s called progressing a theory by selective omission and it is actually science fraud and even against journalistic standards.
Journalists have standards? Who enforces them?
The editor, unless he’s in on it.
…or has been fired.
Is that some pathetic attempt at sarcasm as in most countries they have a journalism association that gives them accreditation. Try entering a country by declaring on your entry visa you are a journalist as your occupation see what happens if you think there are no rules.
You may argue the ethics and standards associations does not act often or hard enough in some countries but that is up to each individual country.
As bad as the current situation has gotten, having government determine who and who is not a “journalist” would be worse.
+42 MarkW. The only thing worse than the current crop of unethical trash that passes for journalism from the MSM would be a deep state government controlled unethical trash passing for journalism.
Mann is perplexed that anyone would have an objection to the way he has selected proxies, because in order to be good proxies they have to agree with the temperature record. As far as that goes, it sounds reasonable. But has he excluded proxies that generally agree with the temperature record, but which imply trends he doesn’t like? The best way to respond to that concern is to show all the proxies that were considered whether they were accepted or rejected.
And when the proxy begins to diverge from the temperature record, you can’t truncate it — keeping the part you like and excluding the part you don’t like.
They didn’t really include proxies that ‘agree with the temperature record.’ Remember the divergence problem?
They selected & tweaked weighting based upon what it did to the end result, but could only found proxies that suited them which all had a nasty problem: from sometime in the modern period after 1970, the proxy tended to go down when the temperatures went up: DIVERGENCE.
>> And when the proxy begins to diverge from the temperature record, you can’t truncate it — keeping the part you like and excluding the part you don’t like.
Of course you can, when you chop off the part that you do not like you can fool the masses 🙂
Assuming for sake of argument it was reasonable. Now that they have adjusted the past temperatures down, if this was replicated today how many of those proxies chosen would still match with “actual” temperatures. If not enough of them then this means their paper is no longer valid and should be withdrawn.
But it’s worse than that. he picks proxies that APPEAR to agree with the instrumental record – but since lots don’t, it is obvious that the proxies are not really valid at all. The ones he picks might agree for all the wrong reasons and not be proxies at all – why would a few work but most not?
If you have 100 proxies and only say 15 “work” your conclusion should be that the you are not working with proxies!
The U of A blocked Steve McKintyre from their archives. I protested as an alumni, and they denied it. Steve confirmed it, after which they no longer responded. Have at ’em.
I love this one from Stefan Rahmsdorf on 8 May 2008 where he is lamenting to Tim Osborn at UEA about the possibility of his IPCC emails getting released:
==========================================
Subject: Re: request for all correspondence related to IPCC
Tim,
I do have very grave concerns about this request because releasing my
mails would be a breach of the confidentiality of mail, which is my
constitutional right as a German citizen.
We have some experience of fashist and communist governments in Germany
opening letters of citizens, so we feel very strongly about this right here.
Thus I specifically request you to not release any mail from me. This
would be like tapping my phone when I talk to you on IPCC topics.
Best wishes,
Stefan
—
=====================
(Sorry if thus was already in the CRU climategate emails, but this is the first time I’ve seen this)
Stefan- now off to the gulag for you……LOL.
After Stefan’s reply to the group, many others from Norway, Switzerland, France, NCAR, all chimed in too that they didn’t want their emails released without their approval. oopps. (it’s all around page 2187 of 3723 pages of the Overpeck pdf and goes on for about 40 pages.)
Then here’s another one from Stefan Rahmdorf to the WG1 Chap 6 group:
===========
From ???@??? Fri May 16 09:09:49 2008
Return-Path:
To: Keith Briffa
Subject: Re: Response to Holland – FYI
Keith, fine with me.
JTO-055412
Astonishing that the skeptics scene is still obsessed with the hockey
stick! I just got an angry mail by someone about it yesterday, who
claimed IPCC had “withdrawn” the hockey stick, so how could I possibly
still defend it on my website!
Cheers, Stefan
—
Stefan Rahmstorf
http://www.ozean-klima.de
http://www.realclimate.org
==========================
So, Even Stefan realizes they made a hockey stick!!!!
Stefan realises there was a hockey stick, claims it should not be referred to in a pejorative manner, yet has it and defends it on his website??
This does not amount to the slightest amount of scientific integrity. I mean what is left to lose?
Notice that they still hide the decline by appending the thermometric data for the last few decades.
We’ve cc’d Fortunat because we removed the specific bullet relating to
biogeochemical dynamics and ocean acidification to avoid apparent conflict
w/ the new carbon and biogeochem chapter.
Bold mine. Further research required to see if they actually did this or not. But merely considering removing something because of “apparent” conflict is obviously going out of their way to create the perception of a consensus.
Reading that in full context it appears they did that because the bullet wasn’t relevant for that Chapter but for the new Chapter on that subject. And not because it conflicted with other data/conclusions.
(see page 3721)
J
OK, that’s plausible.
Well here’s a curious one:
From: Malcolm Hughes
To: Michael E. Mann
Subject: Re: one thought
Date: Monday, January 20, 2003 12:30:19 PM
I still don’t know. If it were carbon dioxide, one would expect similar patterns
on other continents in similarly arid mountain ranges, but they have not been
found. This problem really bothers me…
What’s curious? Well obviously Malcolm Hughes is responding to a question from Michael Mann and saying, no, whatever Mann is asking about doesn’t look like CO2.
But I searched for the subject line (one thought) in the same pdf and the original email from Mann asking the question is not to be found. So what was he asking about? And why is the email in which he asked missing? Or is it in another folder (which would be confusing as h*ll)
That is because they looked at similar datasets from elsewhere (i.e. other than NA bristlecone pine) and could not find anything that could be used to extract the same patterns.
That is to be expected because most species of trees behave more normal than bristlecone. Bristlecone samples are more like red noise because the tree ring widths are totally irreugular around the circumference of the tree. To such an extent that I would be surprised that you could match a horizontal core sample with one taken from the same tree but taken at a 120 degree angle (same tree, same horizontal slice).
That means you can be sure that the samples will not match those from other trees nearby at the chronologically correct places, instead they will show a better match at almost any other place. So rings from (say) 1910 to 1960 will not match rings from another bristlecone from the same timerange, but will match somewhere else at random, say 1820-1870…. Any master you create in this way will be total nonsense.
How could you possibly know this unless you had read the original email that is being responded to? Which we don’t appear to have?
Simply because in order to find any pattern (CO2 or Temp or whatever) using a tree-ring chronology, you first need a proper tree-ring chronology in chronological order.
You can not make a correct tree-ring chronology from Bristle-cone Pine using single horizontal samples, then match such samples from each tree to create the chronology (as you do with normal trees).
That is because the tree-ring widths differ for the same year around the center core of the bristle-cone tree, in a discontinuous way.
In most other types of tree (which do not bend & twist, but at most bend) you do not have that or you simply get a side where the rings are uniformly wider than the other side of the tree, which means that with scaling you still can tell the original relative tree-ring pattern (good enough for matching).
Bristle-cone grows so irregular that it is quite common that even with scaling a sample from another angle (of same tree, same horizontal plane) can’t be matched to a sample from the same tree. Perhaps because it not just bends like an origami tree too often and too easy, but also twists around the axis like a corkscrew.
Just look at a proper section (full disk taken from such a tree) from Bristle-cone and you will see the issue.
So whatever pattern you find using a Bristle-cone (North-America) tree ring ‘chronology’ you are unlikely to find anywhere else when you only sample more normal trees like Oak, even Prune or regular Pine (both bend, but do not twist).
Thanks Jaap. But my interest is in the missing email. If it is truly missing, then they’ve violated the court order and raise the question of what else is missing.
Jaap
That is fascinating and explains a lot. The surprise for me is that I have never heard this explanation before as the reason not to use bristlecone pine cores. The only possible use would be to take a full disk and map it every 5 degrees and produce an average for each year-ring. Then it could be compared with a different species (as you say) to show it can be calibrated properly.
After that is validated, additional full slices could be admitted as proxy evidence of temperature or rainfall or CO2.
Hi David,
Oh I see what you mean. We may be missing an email send by Mann to Malcolm Hughes with the subject line “one thought”.
I see, that could become a bit problematic for Mann or the University 🙂
Jaam,
Correct. One of the first things you do when auditing disclosure is to make sure all the email trails are complete. If someone deletes an email, but not the reply to it, there’s something missing. If someone hits reply all to a reply all to an original email, and then thinks to themselves, oh sh*t, I better cover this up, they have a problem. Because the web of emails on even a short cc list is now huge, and you have to find them ALL and delete them or your exposed. Contempt of court, violation of court order, summary judgment against (in a civil suit, go to jail in a criminal case). Plus, if another completely independent email thread refers to a comment in the first thread, now you have to find all those replies and forwards also. Why do you think Hillary simply wiped the server? She knew that selectively deleting correspondence would have been impossible to hide.
I don’t have the time to go through this batch in that kind of detail. I stumbled across this single one. For all I know the orginal “one thought” email is simply disclosed somewhere other folder. I’ll leave it to others to be systematic, but I’d be pulling on that thread hard if I had the resources. Not only is the original question from Mann missing, there’s no reply from Mann to Hugh’s concerns. Hugh says the problem really bothers him and Mann doesn’t reply at all?
Jaap Titulaer: I found your comments on bristle-cone pines very interesting. I read the Mann paper years ago, and noted the lack of discussion of this kind of detail in the paper. Nowhere does he discuss factors that affect tree ring width – he really should have discussed all of this with a biochemist specialising in plant biology. As examples, what enzymes are involved? What temperature do they work at optimally? This was to me a major flaw in his paper, and I lost interest very quickly.
But then, it seems that he didn’t talk to a statistician either!
To be clear, if the original email “one thought” is not in the release, then the University has failed to disclose it as legally required (though possibly unintentionally). Leading to the question of what else they missed.
I’m not saying it isn’t there. I’m saying I cannot find it in the same batch that the response was in.
David:
I’ve been guilty of changing the Subject line of emails while leaving the “Re:” in place, typically when doing a reply then a second reply before I get back a response. I know I’m not the only one who does this because I’ve also received emails this way. My only suggestion would be to look at MM’s emails he sent around the date/time stamp of the reply.
Here’s another interesting one on climate models:
My bold.
==============
(from page 3598)
Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2008 16:46:33 -0500
Subject: Future of the IPCC:
From: J Shukla
To: IPCC-Sec
[and a lot of others – my comment]
Dear All,
I would like to respond to some of the items in the attached text on
issues etc. in particular to the statement in the section 3.1.1
(sections 3: Drivers of required change in the future).
“There is now greater demand for a higher level of policy relevance in
the work of IPCC, which could provide policymakers a robust scientific
basis for action”.
1. While it is true that a vast majority of the public and the
policymakers have accepted the reality of human influence on climate
change (in fact many of us were arguing for stronger language with a
higher level of confidence at the last meetings of the LAs), how
confident are we about the projected regional climate changes?
I would like to submit that the current climate models have such large
errors in simulating the statistics of regional (climate) that we are
not ready to provide policymakers a robust scientific basis for “action”
at regional scale. I am not referring to mitigation, I am strictly
referring to science based adaptation.
For example, we can not advise the policymakers about re-building the
city of New Orleans – or more generally about the habitability of the
Gulf-Coast – using climate models which have serious deficiencies in
simulating the strength, frequency and tracks of hurricanes.
We will serve society better by enhancing our efforts on improving our
models so that they can simulate the statistics of regional climate
fluctuations; for example: tropical (monsoon depressions, easterly
waves, hurricanes, typhoons, Madden-Julian oscillations) and
extratropical (storms, blocking) systems in the atmosphere; tropical
instability waves, energetic eddies, upwelling zones in the oceans;
floods and droughts on the land; and various manifestations (ENSO,
monsoons, decadal variations, etc.) of the coupled ocean-land-atmosphere
processes.
It is inconceivable that policymakers will be willing to make
billion-and trillion-dollar decisions for adaptation to the projected
regional climate change based on models that do not even describe and
simulate the processes that are the building blocks of climate
variability. Of course, even a hypothetical, perfect model does not
guarantee accurate prediction of the future regional climate, but at the
very least, our suggestion for action will be based on the best possible
science.
It is urgently required that the climate modeling community arrive at a
consensus on the required accuracy of the climate models to meet the
“greater demand for a higher level of policy relevance”.
2. Is “model democracy” a valid scientific method? The “I” in the IPCC
desires that all models submitted by all governments be considered
equally probable. This should be thoroughly discussed, because it may
have serious implications for regional adaptation strategies. AR4 has
shown that model fidelity and model sensitivity are related. The models
used for IPCC assessments should be evaluated using a consensus metric.
3. Does dynamical downscaling for regional climate change provide a
robust scientific basis for action?
Is there a consensus in the climate modeling community on the validity
of regional climate prediction by dynamical downscaling? A large number
of dynamical downscaling efforts are underway worldwide. This is not
necessarily because it is meaningful to do it, but simply because it is
possible to do it. It is not without precedent that quite deficient
climate models are used by large communities simply because it is
convenient to use them. It is self-evident that if a coarse resolution
IPCC model does not correctly capture the large-scale mean and transient
response, a high-resolution regional model, forced by the lateral
boundary conditions from the coarse model, can not improve the response.
Considering the important role of multi-scale interactions and feedbacks
in the climate system, it is essential that the IPCC-class global models
themselves be run at sufficiently high resolution.
Regards,
Shukla
=======================
“It is inconceivable that policymakers will be willing to make billion-and trillion-dollar decisions for adaptation to the projected regional climate change based on models that do not even describe and simulate the processes that are the building blocks of climate variability.”
I like this comment because it gets to the core of the issue — how rational it is to spend billions and trillions of dollars depends on the quality of the models.
Advocates of radical action point out that a consensus estimate exists and that an average of the models represent the best predictions we have, and we are therefore justified in spending trillions of dollars because of what they show. They overlook the fact that models are still sh–. Someone else made the analogy that scientists are in the same place with climate models as Leonardo DaVinci was with designing aeroplanes.
“It is inconceivable that policymakers will be willing to make billion-and trillion-dollar decisions for adaptation to the projected regional climate change based on models that do not even describe and simulate the processes that are the building blocks of climate variability.”
Unless they lie about it. Simple misrepresentation would suffice, if they can get everyone on board.
The question is, why bother? What is the point of misdirecting trillions of $ on a whim? Have they no sense of social responsibility to the whole of humanity groaning under the burden widespread political incompetence and international organized crime in its many forms?
What could be more unethical than to attempt to convince the entre human population to engage in wasting their precious resources on a truly vast scale in order for this pathetic lot to win an academic argument that should not exist?
If Ehrlich and Hansen had guessed differently – that mankind faced a glorious and peaceful future in a cooperating world community – the enormous waste of time and money on “fighting against a changing climate” could have been devoted to cleaning up the environment of our detritus, developing marvellous inventions to generate unlimited electrical power, and to the education and upliftment of our fellows.
It is pretty obvious we could have done better, and that we still can, if we stop listening to these charlatans.
A very good post, thank you Crispin.
I posted the following a decade ago – I am less charitable now.
Best, Allan
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/03/pielke-jrs-take-on-an-amazing-conversation-with-a-climate-scientist/#comment-84260
It is probably too late tonight to write anything sensible.
However, I am concerned that people are losing balance on this very serious issue of alleged humanmade global warming..
Having studied this subject for several decades, I have strong opinions.
For the record, I think the climate changes we have experienced in the past decades are predominantly natural, not humanmade, and probably cyclical, related to either oceanic cycles such as the PDO, etc. or solar cycles, or both.
I believe that Earth’s climate is insensitive to atmospheric CO2, and that recent increases in atmospheric CO2, of whatever cause, are not harmful to the environment, and could even be beneficial.
I believe that many carbon abatement programs are at best uneconomic, and a waste of scarce global resources that should be dedicated to solving real problems – not squandered on imaginary ones.
There is also the compelling moral issue of biofuels raising food prices, thus causing hunger among the world’s poor.
I have grown frustrated by warmists’ repeated attempts to shut down this debate and to bully so-called climate skeptics (aka “deniers”) into silence. This bullying is highly unethical, and has extended to threats of violence, and worse.
I have concluded, reluctantly, that some of the warmists’ research papers were not only in error, but were deliberately misleading.
Nevertheless, it is incumbent on all of us on this side of the debate to not emulate the worst aspects of the warmists and their arguments.
Specifically, hatred is self-defeating. So is excessive polarization.
I think we will win this debate based on science and economics, but only after many hundreds of billions have been squandered on foolish alternative energy programs such as wind power and fuel-from-food.
While this terrible waste is frustrating, it is not appropriate to drag ourselves into the mire in an attempt to compete with the other side.
Frankly, I see signs of mental instability in the wild, irresponsible statements attributed to several prominent warmists. Let us not join them down that self-destructive path.
Best regards to all, Allan
If their “models that do not even describe and simulate the processes that are the building blocks of climate variability.”
Why do they continue to insist that governments spend said billions and trillions? They know their modeling isn’t accurate, yet they continue to demand the money be spent? On what basis exactly?
Oh they’ll tell you that they were discussing “only” climate on a REGIONAL scale as not being adequately represented, but insist they still have the “right answer” in “general.” Which is ludicrous BS, of course, but that’s the type of mindset you’re dealing with.
For a bit of color, Shukla was caught double-dipping research grants.
https://climateaudit.org/2015/09/28/shuklas-gold/
Where’s the update on this guy? He committed fraud and has he suffered any consequences?
“…..but at the very least, our suggestion for action will be based on the best possible science.” This is in, at least some, fisheries law and needs to be taken out or clarified. I read papers often where the best, usually most recent, science is not very good. Sometimes it is only admitted buried late in the paper. They better hope they don’t get what they wish for if all they got is the best possible and it’s not good enough. Maybe this came from an old error, still scientists wanting to be advocates.
I’m with Crispin.
Shukla’s commentary indicates that as of 2008, he knew the models-based claim of CO2-imposed warming is a crock. One presumes that everyone in his recipient list also knew that.
Off-hand, I’d say Shukla’s email is prima facie evidence that they all know the whole CO2-induced global warming thing is a conscious f*r*a*u*d*.
+100
Here’s an amusing one from Phil Jones:
(page 3664)
—–Original Message—–
From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
Sent: Wednesday, September 12, 2007 11:30 AM
To: Wahl, Eugene R; Caspar Ammann
Subject: Wahl/Ammann
Gene/Caspar,
Good to see these two out. Wahl/Ammann doesn’t appear to be in CC’s online first, but comes up if you search.
You likely know that McIntyre will check this one to make sure it hasn’t changed since the IPCC close-off date July 2006!
Hard copies of the WG1 report from CUP have arrived here today.
Ammann/Wahl – try and change the Received date! Don’t give those skeptics something
to amuse themselves with.
Cheers<
Phil
Phil Jones is the figure in all this who first turned my opinion to full-on-skeptic. I was buying into the hockey stick and the “atmosphere-as-water-about-to-boil” imagery when he made one of science’s most infamous statements: (I paraphrase) “I’ve spent years on this data; why should I let you see it when you’ll just try to find something wrong with it?
Imagine Brahe saying the same to Kepler. If Jones were a true scientist, he would have cried out “Yes! Take my data and marvel at its wondrous nature. You will see how it validates my every prediction!”
Instead, we got “Nuh-uh, you can’t see it!”
Way to go, Phil.
Kepler’s curve-fitting exercise with Tycho’s Martian observations dragged on for such an excruciatingly long time because he assumed that if the orbit were as simple as an ellipse, someone would already have noticed that fact.
Were Mann analyzing the data, Mars’ orbit would have been whatever he wanted it to be, from an Aristotlean perfect circle to a figure eight, with epicycles, if that’s what theory called for.
John, your comment really needs an up-vote.
Someone in Belgium sent me a link showing an (almost) pre-CO2 San Francisco just before the Big One in 1906.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/v2u4J7Dbouo
Unlike climate data, some events are too well-documented for anyone to be able to change the past.
“Kepler’s curve-fitting exercise with Tycho’s Martian observations dragged on for such an excruciatingly long time because he assumed that if the orbit were as simple as an ellipse, someone would already have noticed that fact.”
Good story, John.
People get in trouble when they assume too much. There’s a lot of that going around today, especially in climate science.
I liked the bit where he said he ‘contemplated suicide’ after the e-mail release – NOT the sort of thing an innocent man does – you do that when you’re caught and you think it’s all over.
Of course, he didn’t take into account the total corruption that would come to his aid – how soon was he reinstated again?
I’m pretty sure that one appeared in the Climategate releases.
climategate mail
Thus proving that the climategate e-mails aren’t a fabrication, as many have claimed.
I’m unaware of anybody claiming they were fabricated.
When they were first release, everybody who didn’t like the implications of what was being said, either 1. Said they were stolen therefor you shouldn’t be reading them, or 2. They were fabricated lies. Mostly the MSM and similar personalities.
“Ammann/Wahl – try and change the Received date! ” is this a gov’t record? If so is Phil Jones committing/advocating a crime?
Not too sure what your message is, but to me the standout is they mostly show warming from say 1600 to 1800, which must be due to natural effects. Do the much beloved climate models account for these natural effects?
A ne hockey stick to please the Guardian: rapidly increasing ocean ‘heatwaves’. I haven’t studied the original paper yet, so perhaps its plausible?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/04/heatwaves-sweeping-oceans-like-wildfires-scientists-reveal
Yes. that is a very pronounced Hockeystick. It may be real.
But I have my doubts.
The key thing is that the recent data is taken from satellites and sea temperature measurements while the early part is a proxy that averages only sea temperature measurements. What’s the betting that the earlier heatwaves were missed by the process? If only one of the five measurements covered where that hot spot was it wouldn’t appear in the proxy. But it would with the satellites to support today.
And the word “monthly” below ought to be considered carefully.
Here is their method as described in the paper:
is the grunion going on about Rossby? waves?
i gather they do a once round the globe monthly whizzby
and are due over Aus soon
hope they bring rains to the sth of our land.
What a crock of BS. Developing ‘proxies’ on the basis of monthly gridded SST datasets (all the way back to 1900?) is equivalent to simply fabricating numbers. No one has any idea of what ocean temperatures were doing a century ago. They either weren’t measuring ocean temperatures (for the most part), and when they were, they were doing it wrong (sampling seawater intakes of ship engines). This study is more ‘Garbage In Garbage Out’. The Onion has more credibility than Nature Climate Change.
All over Australian MSM at the moment. Election year!!!
Looks like Google and friends will try to block these PDFs and emails, But they will fail . . . Maybe even try to block this website. . . lol.
They do it every day—-Can’t Access This Page—requiring a fix to access.
Never happens to me. You’ve got something else going on.
Iused to get regular emails of wattsupwiththat. Suddenly they stopped coming. Please reinstate me as a recipient.
Mann’s published works clearly show the MWP, that he describes as an anomaly.
I think what is more at issue is his understanding as to how long it lasted for, what temperatures were reached and what was its geographical extent. He portrays it in his work as being fairly limited in its temperature increase, relatively short lived and perhaps more importantly that it was primarily a North Atlantic occurrence and there was no global synchronicity.
More a limited luke warm period than a global warming occurrence
tonyb
Tony
The problem is the variation in temperature attributed to changes in the past is below the resolution of the measuring equipment.
In fact that has been the case all along.
What climate scientists do is weaponise ideology. Just as Huxley warned.
tonyb
Mann’s early works (1988-99) do not show such a period of warmth. After he was severely embarrassed (no other words for it) with two papers by M&M in 2003-2004 he had to come up with some fall-back position lest he had to admit to incompetence. In 2008 (Nov if I recall correctly) he published something showing a MWP. The math was undone by M&M in about 4 weeks and published.
He and the Team have always tried to sell the MWP as a regional event. They have to do that rather than deny it, as done earlier, because there is so much historical evidence in the North. Of course, since then, it has been shown to have been a global event because everywhere there are viable proxies for temperature, the MWP pops out like a sore thumb.
The only reasons one might still claim, or want to claim, that it was regional is to support early claims that a) it wasn’t not there at all or b) that it was regional therefore the global average temperature was pretty much constant for 1000 years before evil humans came along and liberated old CO2 that used to be in the air but is now stored underground.
Anyone who reads the background and understands what proxies were used and why and what happens if they are included or excluded comes away convinced that a) there was an MWP and b) that Mann et all claimed there was not and c) that they have been trying ever since to find and defend some corner of the kingdom of “It was not important to be a little incorrect and anyway we were misunderstood.”
One big supporter of Mann’s position is Amman who published a supposedly supportive paper. It turns out that he is Mann’s PhD student and used the same data that Mann did – in short he replicated the erroneous result. So what? That constitutes “support”? Apparently it does over at RealClimate.
The apple doesn’t fall far from the Bristlecone pine.
It must have been an insider who knew his way around the university IT system. A disgusted Norfolk police didn’t try too hard to find her.
I believe the official line about Climategate is that a Russian Spy infiltrated the CRU, gathered all the data onto one file on one computer and then went outside to hack it.
Thus outwitting the Norfolk constabulary.
why what was in it for them ?
You see what is lacking from this claim , along with actual evidenced of it , is motivation.
Any ‘hack ‘ as a cost benefit and although being able to do it in the first place is a ‘benefit’ that only really the case when the target is ‘worthwhile ‘ such has the FBI, CIA politicians etc. In the case you had CRU a department of a little known university which in ‘hacking ‘ there was little glory to be had in the hacking community and no financial advantage.
And as for ‘lack of evidenced ‘ well to date the police have made this claim however they have offered no poof of it at all despite having longed dropped the case and any interest in it . In reality they probable went for an ‘easy out’ which the ‘Russia hackers’ claim give them.
Someone on the inside would have both had access to the information and the will not release all the other e-mails that form part of daily life ,as it was not just a drop of ‘anything and everything ‘
Agreed. It had to be somebody who intimately familiar with the content of the communications and the implications. It was one of their own.
The official line doesn’t have to make sense. It just needs to be agreed to and adhered to by all involved.
The Russian spy wasn’t a “her”, as Coeur de lion suggest.
It was Trump!
Seriously, Climategate and these emails reveal actual “collusion” to promote and preserve an idea, “The Goal”, and not scientific inquiry and/or integrity.
We haven’t been asked to review the paper. Therefore it is rubbish.
Such arrogance.
Especially when their own “pal reviewed” stuff is such rubbish…