The air is starting to feel crisp, the leaves are changing, and the aroma of pumpkin spice lattes are filling your favorite coffee shops. This can only mean one thing – it’s time for my annual post on NOAA’s expectations for the upcoming winter! And once again, one of the key players is found in the tropical Pacific. In contrast with the last twoyears, when we were looking at potential La Niña development, this year we’re waiting to see if El Niño will arrive in time to impact winter. Without further ado, let’s take a look at NOAA’s 2018-19 Winter Temperature and Precipitation Outlook and see how ENSO has affected this forecast.
As usual: Outlooks are probabilistic, so no guarantees
Wait, just one more thing before jumping to the outlooks. I again remind readers (if this seems repetitive, well, it is) that these forecasts are provided in terms of probabilities (% chance) for below, near, or above average outcomes with the maps showing only the most likely outcome (1). Because the probabilities on these and all CPC outlook maps are less than 100%, there is no guarantee you will see temperature or precipitation departures from normal that match the color on the map. As we’ve explained in earlier blog posts, even when one outcome is more likely than another, there is still always a chance that a less favored outcome will occur. And in fact, for the forecasts to be reliable (a critical part of a probabilistic forecast), less likely outcomes MUST happen from time to time.
Outlook for 2018/19 winter
Finally, the outlooks! Both the temperature and precipitation outlooks depend to a certain extent on typical El Niño impacts, but forecasters think a weak El Niño event is most likely. This means that despite the potential for El Niño, confidence in this outlook is less than we had than during recent strong events like in the winter of 2015/16 (more on confidence below).
This lower confidence is reflected in fairly modest probabilities for the temperature outlook, with the largest probabilities only between 50-60% for above normal temperatures in Hawaii, Alaska, and parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. The other shaded regions on the map indicate probabilities between 33-50%, meaning that the forecast only tilts modestly towards above normal temperatures. And while no areas of the country are favored to have below normal temperatures, it certainly wouldn’t be surprising for some areas to experience below normal temperatures this winter. This would be most likely in the white areas labeled EC (more on that later).
Places where the forecast odds favor a much colder than usual winter (blue colors) or much warmer than usual winter (red), or where the probability of a cold winter, a warm winter, or a near-normal winter are all equal (white). The darker the color, the stronger the chance of that outcome (not the bigger the departure from average). NOAA Climate.gov map, based on data from NOAA CPC.
Now that the observed conditions are a little colder than their October mild winter forecast, NOAA seem to be blaming global warming and warmer oceans for the deep freeze.
A very cold november for the places that got it, mild from then until mid-january, super-cold late january, and below normal for most places in the US until mid-march. He has a free daily update on the Weatherbell site which is quite educational.
Rod Evans
January 31, 2019 3:02 pm
Well translating the NOAA weather forecast we have.
The Winter will be mild, unless it turns out to be not mild.
Our forecast is accurate but could be wrong if variations that happen from time to time make predictions pointless.
Whatever the weather this winter it will be entirely due to Global Warming causing Climate Change due to man made CO2 emissions.
We at NOAA hope this very precise projection, justifies the proposed budget of $4.5 billions for 2019 and would like to remind taxpayers, that is a snip, as it is $1 billion less than 2018.
GeoNC
January 31, 2019 3:04 pm
Is there anybody out there that doubts that when our climate masters are done crunching the data that they’ll list this winter as the fourth or fifth coldest winter on record? Meanwhile, look at natural gas storage numbers in the US and hope the winter moderates a bit to get us through it with enough to get by. Isn’t Europe getting hammered pretty good also?
Very true. It is normal. Just as every extreme weather event is normal but perhaps different than any you remember. Just as global warming, global cooling, and climate change is normal for the planet. Just as varying levels of CO2 is normal.
Another feature of the broken NOAA prediction clock it will be right twice a day briefly.
I am impressed you managed to deduce they predicted Western Europe would have a mild winter though. From what I have seen they have hedged their forecast with about as much flexibility as Old Moore’s almanac.
The principle concept is if you cover all bases you will be right somewhere sometime.
Not so mild for Portugal! We have been consistently 5-6C COOLER since the end of October. A mild winter here is high teens to 20sC, and this is more usual than not. The past two winters have been noticeably cooler and summer 2018 was cooler too, to the point that locals were complaining about how COLD it was in August, when most of the population takes off on holiday down the shore!
11ishC right now with winds gusting out of the NNW at 20 to 35 mph, with intermittent showers. It would be spring if it was a few degrees C warmer….
ALASTAIR GRAY
January 31, 2019 3:26 pm
Sorry Hotscot I am a touchy Jock too. I remember the day vividly It was a stinker of a day and I had been visiting the National Oceonographic Research centre at Bentley. Playfully I asked one of their computer whizzes about their Planetary7 Engineering Simulator . The guy replied “no we don’t have any computers big enough to do that you must speak to the Met Office” . The weather just got progressively worse and I heard Mr Fish say it Bollocks I thought.
It was Englands worst storm. Scotland had its 300 year storm 20 years prior to that when a hurtricane ripped through Glasgow . We always tent to keep ahead of thje Sassenach
Contrary to popular belief, experts aren’t good at predicting. Philip E. Tetlock demonstrated that expert forecasting is usually worse than basic extrapolation algorithms, and that there is a perverse inverse relationship between fame and accuracy in forecasting.
Tetlock, P. E. 2005. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton University Press.
Not being an expert I am safe from that curse. I anticipate that the worst winter of the decade should be the 2020-2021 winter. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation just turned West at 30 hPa a couple of months ago, so next year shouldn’t be East or moderately so, But in two years time it has a good chance of being strongly East. Solar activity should still be quite low and in fact about a year after the minimum the solar effect on weather is maximum, as it happened in 2010. Then in late 2020 a strong La Niña should be developing.
Unless a strong equatorial or northern hemisphere volcanic eruption injects sufficient sulfate in the stratosphere to spoil the party, what should happen should amount to the worst northern hemisphere winter in a decade. I am giving two years warning so you all northern people get enough wood.
Starting around December-January the temperature at the North Polar stratosphere (30 hPa) will jump by 20°C winter average. That’s right, 20°C warmer on average with peaks of +50°C above average. The polar vortex will simply vanish, releasing wave after wave of polar, dense masses of bitter cold air towards North America, Northern Europe, and Siberia, while Greenland temperatures shoot up.
Global surface average temperature might fall by 0.2°C that winter, and will have trouble recovering afterwards due to the Niña conditions.
Save this message and if in two years time it is not as I have told it bring it to my attention and put me to shame. If it is then I should get 1% of what NOAA gets for their failed predictions.
Saved, I think that you are wrong though on 2020/21. The next winter should be colder than this one. The one after that should see warmer temps. It is after that when we will find out imo, if a deeper cold spell is in the cards. Nothing wrong with attempting to decipher what will occur next. It is like betting on sports, it can sharpen one’s thoughts on the subject.
I’ve been following David of Adapt 2030 on YouTube for awhile and he’s been predicting a cooling in the next few decades. He has a decent number of followers. Do any of you weather/climate types have an opinion of his forecasts? Here is an example video.
36 seconds is enough. It is based on faulty science. Abdussamatov’s prediction of a 21st century solar grand minimum is bonkers. We already know solar cycle 25 will not be less active than 24.
Apocalyptic predictions are more interesting, and thus preferred by charlatans. No warming or slight cooling for the next decade or two is possible, a big freeze is not.
It isn’t because it is more convenient, it is because of temperature lag. Just as the warmest temperatures during the day are not at noon but several hours after noon, the warmest and coldest days of the years lag the solstices by several weeks. Thus the warmest temperatures are mid-July and the coldest temperatures are mid-January. Mid-January is right in the middle of the three-month stretch beginning 1st December and ending 28/29 February.
I suppose that is your opinion, or do you actually have any evidence that the meteorological seasons are based on a temperature lag?
From NOAA: “Because Earth actually travels around the sun in 365.24 days, an extra day is needed every fourth year, creating what we know as Leap Year. This also causes the exact date of the solstices and equinoxes to vary. Additionally, the elliptical shape of Earth’s orbit around the sun causes the lengths of the astronomical seasons to vary between 89 and 93 days. These variations in season length and season start would make it very difficult to consistently compare climatological statistics for a particular season from one year to the next. Thus, the meteorological seasons were born.”
Don’t you think that if the meteorological seasons were based on a lag they would start after and not before the astronomical seasons?
It was convenience and not temperature what prompted the meteorological seasons.
I suppose that is your opinion, or do you actually have any evidence that the meteorological seasons are based on a temperature lag?
You don’t have to be snippy about it. It’s called Meteorology 101. I no longer have my text book (they generally don’t last 40 years) but here are some sample climate graphs to show you. Chicago: http://tinyurl.com/ya3pnp56 Seattle Washington: http://tinyurl.com/y8ewtb7s Buffalo NY: http://tinyurl.com/ya7dv2nb. Buffalo temperature lag in the winter is more than a month, (probably because the Lakes have to warm up first). But you will find a similar effect world wide.
Don’t you think that if the meteorological seasons were based on a lag they would start after and not before the astronomical seasons?
No. In the northern hemisphere the minimum average daily temperatures generally come in the middle of the three month period Dec-Feb, and the maximum average daily temperatures generally come in the middle of the three month period June-August, making it convenient to break out the meteorological seasons that way.
By the way, before you get snitty again
is that your opinion?
how many years have you spent either as a certified weather observer or Forecaster? I have 30 years combined.
how many years have you spent either as a certified weather observer or Forecaster? I have 30 years combined.
I couldn’t care less about your certifications. I only care about what you say, and it is wrong.
The astronomical division of seasons is a millennial tradition, but the calendar division is a lot more recent. Obviously first we needed the Gregorian calendar. The Societas Meteorologica Palatina, established in 1781 in Mannheim by the Elector was the first international meteorological institution receiving data from 37 stations in different countries.
The data was gathered, compared, abstracted and published in Quarterly Ephemerides and Annual Reports. That was the origin of the meteorological seasons tied to full months instead of astronomical seasons. They were tied to the Gregorian calendar for convenience, not for any temperature lag. Sweden and Finland use a different system and are the ones that in fact use temperature criteria to define the seasons. Winter begins when the average temperature falls below 0°C for seven consecutive days.
It stands to reason that if the seasons are tied to the calendar, which is a human construct, it is for convenience, and not for temperature reasons.
Your 30 years experience does not mean you are correct. Many climatologists with >40 years experience defend that global warming is due to CO2. Should we believe them on account of their experience? Argumentum ab auctoritate is a fallacy in science.
I didn’t say it wasn’t for convenience. I said that the minimum and maximum daily temperatures of the year conveniently fall (for most stations) in the middle of those three month periods, therefore that is the reason for the Meteorological seasons. Not for any other convoluted reason. I am calling you out because you claimed that a verified phenomenon is my opinion and has no basis in fact. It is textbook Meteorology 101. I just cited my experience to ask you why you, without any experience in meteorology, claim my experience is just opinion. I am no longer going to respond to you on this question since you appear to have such a great opinion of yourself that you would tell the captain of a ship how to pull into port based on what you find on the internet.
I wouldn’t be snippy if you hadn’t said I was wrong without providing the evidence for it.
And your experience is irrelevant in a matter, the meteorological seasons, that was established long before you were born.
All you have provided is evidence that the planet has thermal inertia with regard to insolation. That is so basic that is known by almost anybody with a passing interest in climate and weather. And is unrelated to the origin of the meteorological seasons that were established in the late 18th century and tied to the Gregorian calendar changing months out of convenience.
Watch out that you don’t run your ship aground, captain. Francesco Schettino was also an experienced captain.
Now boys, get a grip. It is summer than starts on 1 December and we do that in Australia because it is the right thing to do. All this blathering about winter makes about as much sense as a March Hare – and the bloody hares are as confused as you are, because March is the start of autumn. We just had the hottest January in the history of the universe, if BoM is to be believed, which it isn’t. So cool off.
“And in fact, for the forecasts to be reliable (a critical part of a probabilistic forecast), less likely outcomes MUST happen from time to time.”
Beautiful just beautiful.
So 50-60% probability doesn’t really mean 50-60% probability?
It doesn’t really mean anything?
WTF
etudiant
January 31, 2019 4:04 pm
While currently chilly here in NYC, the winter to date has in fact been quite mild.
We have had very little snow, apart from the November storm that delivered about 6″.
So at least for our area, the overall forecast for the winter may still validate, even with the current record cold snap.
The real lesson, at least imho, is that seasonal forecasts across a continent are pretty silly. The models have insufficient skill to forecast more than a few days at best, even locally. Getting the solution right for a larger area is thus far beyond human reach. Of course, that also raises doubts about the larger AGW claims…
Here in NE Ohio, it’s been extremely mild until this spell of freezing temps. Day after tomorrow is forecast to be almost back to short-sleeve temps (about 50F – short sleeve for Cleveland natives), then almost as warm most of the week.
So how does one decide whether it’s a freezing winter or a mild one? If it’s always either significantly above average or below average, does that mean an average winter? In this case I’d say that mild is a better descriptor.
Agreed that a seasonal forecast is pretty useless with these conditions.
(Of course, my father mentioned the record heat in Australia and record cold here, and told me that was exactly what NatGeo predicted 10 years ago – more extremes. Sigh. He’s hard of hearing, so I’m not arguing with him…..)
Regarding “Now that the observed conditions are a little colder than their October mild winter forecast, NOAA seem to be blaming global warming and warmer oceans for the deep freeze.”: I didn’t see anything in the included link blaming the deep freeze on global warming or warming oceans. What I saw was statements that the deep freeze does not disprove global warming, and a cartoon copied from a March 2015 NOAA post blaming increased snowstorms, not deep freezes, on warming oceans.
Anthony Banton
January 31, 2019 4:13 pm
The long range forecasts would have been compiled on the anticipation of the ENSO cycle (an El Nino was expected).
Turned out to have barely occurred …. and the wild card was the SSW event at the turn of the year (Sudden Stratospheric warming).
LR forecasts can only be made on the basis of likely probabilities – unlikely ones, though always possible, would not get forecast by a responsible Met organisation. There needs to be a reasonable prob of success, else it’s just speculation, and anyone can do that … as indeed they do in regards to “Exacta Weather” and Piers Corbyn in the UK.
Which is why you get certain f”Foecsters” doing so year after year re (coldest winter for 10 years coming” type “forecasts” that the tabloids print t seel newsprint.
Worst than useless – possible yes but
“Now that the observed conditions are a little colder than their October mild winter forecast”
The forecast was for a three month average. The US was warmer than average in December. January average is not in, but there was a cold snap late in the month. And February still unknown. It’s a bit early to say the forecast was wrong.
The Chicago cold snap has been noted here. But according to WeatherUnderground, the average max for January was 27F, 4F below average. And the average for December was 40F, 5F above average. So far for the winter, modestly above normal, as predicted.
Hi Nick,
I see that in the article that you cite they say:
BOM senior climatologist Andrew Watkins said there were a few factors at play in the unprecedented heat.
“The main contributor to this heat was a persistent high-pressure system in the Tasman sea which was blocking any cold fronts and cooler air from impacting the south of the country.”
Of course, another unmentioned big driver is that the most severely affected areas in Oz have also been in severe drought, that being another ‘weather thingy’ of ‘poorly understood’ predictability.
And, you must know that in the Earth’s total energy budget, the scientifically established greatest heat loss from the surface by far, as reported notably by Trenberth and the IPCC is from evapotranspiration. By definition that cooling is greatly reduced during drought, resulting in higher surface T’s on land. Reminiscent of the 1930’s dustbowl in the USA? How about the oceans covering over 70% of the surface? How are they going?
Are you able to indicate if there is any explanation for these ‘weather events’ in Australia (predominantly in the southeast subjected to a predominantly north-westerly airflow across the hot centre) that can be described as caused by a small increase in the CO2 level in the atmosphere?
Incidentally Nick,
I notice that in terms of WUWT blog-time it was still only January 31, 2019 at 6:25 pm when you cited the hottest ever January for Oz, as was reported astonishingly early online by the national Australian Broadcasting Corporation in much detail.
I wonder if everyone had been so very quick to get the news out with such remarkable speed if it had been a disappointingly unusually cool month such as in January 2018? (The ninth coolest in maxima since 1932, or February the twenty-third coolest since 1914)
Incidentally, what are your thoughts on the BoM’s ACORN-SAT version 2 recently silently replacing the former ACORN-SAT version 1 which was formerly described as amongst ‘World’s best practice’?
Might it have had an influence on the latest data trends?
The hottest temperature in January was recorded at Port Augusta Aero, that site has only been operating since 2001.
Apparently it was also the hottest January in Canberra “ever”, as represented by the Canberra Airport weather station that has been operating since ………. 2008.
It’s impossible to tell what exactly it means to have the “hottest January” across Australia, or the states that are mentioned in the article, since they don’t actually tell you what stations are used to arrive at this metric. As we see above, some of these “all-time” records are for locations that have only recently been added to the network.
Claiming that these “records” for large areas of the country are representing the period back to 1910 seems rather optimistic, given how few of Australia’s weather stations have a continuous history of operation back to 1910.
“Canberra Airport weather station that has been operating since ………. 2008”
Just not true. Canberra is the national capital, and the weather station is located on a historic RAAF base. It is also an ACORN site, and has daily records back to 1939. NOAA 2015 datasheet here.
Port Augusta has records since 1957, at least. The site started at the post office, then to the power station, then to a site called Port Augusta arid lands, and finally the airport.
The record at Canberra was recorded here:
Station: Canberra Airport Number: 70351 Opened: 2008 Now: Open
It only has temp data back to 2008.
If another site exists that has longer records, that’s really nice, however irrelevant to the long term records since they are difference sites.
It’s also lovely that Port Augusta has such long records.
However the record was at Port Augusta Aero:
Station: Port Augusta Aero Number: 18201 Opened: 2001 Now: Open
The 1957 data is for the post office, 1.1km away, which recorded temps for around 5 years. After that the recordings are for the Port August Power Station, which is 4.6km away, it stopped recording in the mid 1990s when it moved to the Port Augusta Land Titles office for a few years (3.2km away).
Claiming “all time records” based on a site that is many kilometres away from the bulk of the historical data isn’t very “sciency” is it Nick?
I looked up the Canberra data, since it intrigued me. It seems your “continuous” record from 1939 is made up of combining the Canberra Airport Comparison site and the new Canberra airport site.
They are very proximate:
Canberra Airport Comparison Number: 70014 Opened: 1939 Now: Closed 03 Dec 2010
Lat: 35.30° S Lon: 149.20° E Elevation: 578 m
Canberra Airport Number: 70351 Opened: 2008 Now: Open
Lat: 35.31° S Lon: 149.20° E Elevation: 577 m
Looking at the years that the 2 ran in parallel, the new station seems to be running at least .2C hot on average with max temps more than .5 higher compared to the prior station.
2009 New Airport Site Jan average 31.3 highest daily max 38.7
2009 Comparison Site Jan average 31.0 highest daily max 38.2
2010 New Airport Site Jan average 31.8 highest daily max 38.8
2010 Comparison Site Jan average 31.6 highest daily max 38.1
Your supplied link is for the Canberra Airport Comparison station, which is why the image you linked to has no data after 2010.
Here is something that strikes me as being underhanded about all of the “hot” reporting about Australia. First Australia has always been known for extremes. Secondly, has anyone ever thought about why we are not hearing any “hot” claims for South America or South Africa?
Media acts as if Australia is the only land mass in the SH. Well, I keep daily watch, and neither of the SA’s are experiencing a hot summer, or any notable hotspots.
And there is the rub:
“The forecast was for a three month average”
In the end it may turn out that despite the coldwave the three month average will still be milder that normal; all statistically and methodologically correct, sure.
But in practice, I think people are right to expect that a statistically-milder winter will NOT include a record-breaking cold snap of historic proportions. Isn’t that a legit request?
That’s one of the problems, the gap between what is mathematically and methodologically correct and what matters in practice.
“But in practice it means this accurate prediction has close to none utility.”
No it doesn’t.
If you are planning for a seasonal effect eg winter energy requirements.
Weather Forecasting attempts to do what is possible.
Should they not bother, just because the detail down to individual months cannot be achieved?
Agree with Nick, I suppose, Flavio, that you also think that such a winter shouldn’t include a record high either? Such as happened, for example, in Boston on Dec 21st.
I can’t shake the feeling we’re talking of different things. As somebody pointed out, in average everybody has roughly one testicle and roughly one ovary.
And even if you want to discuss energy requirements, is a season with unusually warm periods and an extreme cold spike the same as one with a limited temperature swings?
It may be or it may not, it’s on you to explain.
The cold temperatures are from gradually lower solar activity since the end of SC24 TSI peak in 2015, since March 2016 when daily TSI fell below my solar ocean warming threshold, leading to a current deficit in incoming solar energy, and since Feb 2017, when 2017-2018 Greenland ice growth commenced in earnest as my long-term F10.7cm running average fell below my warming/cooling 120 sfu/day threshold. The cold is spreading fast as the low TSI sun quiets even more.
The bluer this image gets, the lower the TSI goes, and the colder it gets:
TSI has down-trended during the last few solar rotations. The current bright sunspot, with F10.7cm of 70, bumped up TSI very slightly but not much. It, with the photospheric plasma in the sun’s RH quadrant, will roll out of sight early next week leaving a much bluer dimmer sun in this image, taking TSI down with it, and along with that more spreading and deepening cold, snow and ice.
TSI has downtrended in January and will go lower from this deep blue sun, while F10.7cm today is 72 sfu.
?dl=0
Theodore White
January 31, 2019 5:24 pm
Actually, the worst winter season I see on tap will be the Winter of 2021-2022, which will rival the 2014 polar vortex winter I forecasted back in 2009.
That winter will begin in early November 2021 and will not end until early May 2022. It will feature heavy snowfall, ice storms, and blocking patterns with longer lasting polar vortex incursions sticking around longer (weeks) than the brief polar vortex of late January 2019.
The winter season this year really begins now in fact and will last until April 2019. I consider the month of March to be mid-winter with a late spring on tap.
All of this is due to the Sun’s emerging quiescent phase, which I long forecasted along with the arrival of global cooling, which precedes the Sun’s Grand Minimum.
We are already a year into this new climate regime of global cooling which will last throughout the 2020s, 2030s and 2040s into the early 2050s. It will comprise three (3) deep solar minimums consisting of solar cycles #25, #26 and #27.
As for NOAA’s 2018-2019 Outlook,
NOAA does not do seasonal climate/weather forecasts very well at all and they know it too; hence their 50/50 probabilities each year.
However, the winter of 2019 will see the extremes of weather due to the radical temperature fluctuations and irregular seasons which is a trademark of the climate global cooling.
In fact, we are about to witness a sharp contrast of temperatures into early February as the jet stream retreats from its mid-latitude meridional flow to a more zonal pattern flow which allows southerlies to greatly raise temperatures across the very same regions that has seen hundreds of low temperature weather records broken during the polar vortex incursion.
Winter 2019 is far from over. We have February, March and April to go with spring late this year by about 45 days. Many people will see a condensed spring season, as climate conditions will appear to go from a waning winter straight into summer this year.
And our northern hemispheric summer will have above-average temperatures while the southern hemisphere will experience below average temperatures.
Robert MacLellan
January 31, 2019 8:21 pm
percent probability of 60 to 65 %, what is a casino % again? 3%? 5? Rolling a dice gets closer results than these “experts” It is a good thing that they don”t have their wages at risk.
Kristen
January 31, 2019 10:06 pm
here in the PNW, we are having a warmer than normal winter. Temps are barely freezing overnight lows for a coat of frost. sometimes. and frankly – after the last two winters of unrelenting rain, where even I, a native – was sick of the rain! . . . . . I’m going to ENJOY IT!!!
Standby, we are supposed to be getting a refresher on what snow looks like by Monday. I was convinced that we were going to get a winter without even a snowflake.
Bindidon
February 1, 2019 12:46 am
Of course, for Northeastern America this polar vortex at month end was a harsh surprise. See Chicago for January:
But the quality of the winter forecasts we will first be able to see when the data from all stations will have become available.
Please remember all that in January 1977, Chicago experienced a month 11 °C below the 1981-2010 average, with not less than eight days below -20 °C (I mean here the daily averages, and not their minima).
At least some meteorologists got it correct
“By KAT HOPPS
19:29, Fri, Oct 19, 2018 | UPDATED: 19:46, Fri, Oct 19, 2018
UK long range weather forecast: Winter 2018 to be COLDEST for years as El Nino hits
METEOROLOGISTS say an “imminent” El Nino event is on its way, meaning winter could be bleaker, weeks after long range weather forecasts revealed we may facing the coldest winter of 10 years in the UK – here is what you need to know.” https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1034009/uk-long-range-weather-forecast-winter-2018-el-nino-snow-cold-world-meterological
We are still waiting for El Niño. That 70% chance of El Niño by late 2018 did not pan out. So if it is cold in the UK it is not because of El Niño. Right for the wrong reasons?
On a religious tone, El Niño did not come December the 25th. Christmas has been delayed. For those that don’t know, El Niño refers to baby Jesus Christ, as it usually hits Peruvian fishermen (who named it) by Christmas. La Niña is harder to explain in religious terms. The opposite of Jesus Christ is the devil, but better not get into that.
“At least some meteorologists got it correct… Winter 2018 to be COLDEST for years as El Nino hits…”
Could you please explain how that fits to the only 35 daily records for UK below -20 °C found in the GHCN daily database for the period till Dec 31, 2018 ?
One (!) record from a year past 2000.
Between -20 ° C and -10 °C, only two records of 3755 are from 2018 (-10.3 °C).
And an 2019 also doesn’t look like what I understand by COLDEST (-10.3 °C at LEEMING station on Jan 28 was the lowest temperature).
Last not least: this good old El Nino horse stopped hitting a while ago, see Ric Werme’s ENSOmeter.
“At least some meteorologists got it correct”
Again, people say this stuff without looking at what actually happened. Here is the MO summary for December “The provisional UK mean temperature was 5.8 °C, which is 1.9 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term average. Mean maximum temperatures were generally 2 °C above average in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and 1.5 °C above in Scotland. Mean minimum temperatures ranged from 3 °C above average in parts of Wales and south-west England to less than 1.5 °C above in the north and east of Scotland and parts of north-east England. “
A very warm month. The January summary is not out yet, but the individual numbers are on CLIMAT here. For example, Heathrow mean max 7.4°C, 0.3 above average. Mean Min 2.3, 0.9 above average. Eskdalemuir max 5°C, 0.5 above average. Etc, almost everywhere above average in Jan after that very warm December.
There is still February to go, but it looks like the Mail/Express forecast was very wrong indeed.
Martin Collins
February 1, 2019 2:56 am
It is getting worse – our children will not know what lake ice is!
So how would they define these two ice vortexes we have already experienced this winter?
Joe Bastardi nailed his winter 2018/19 outlook clear back in August 2018.
Forecasts like that are the reason he is the best-paid weather forecaster in the business.
Really, what did he predict?
A very cold november for the places that got it, mild from then until mid-january, super-cold late january, and below normal for most places in the US until mid-march. He has a free daily update on the Weatherbell site which is quite educational.
Well translating the NOAA weather forecast we have.
The Winter will be mild, unless it turns out to be not mild.
Our forecast is accurate but could be wrong if variations that happen from time to time make predictions pointless.
Whatever the weather this winter it will be entirely due to Global Warming causing Climate Change due to man made CO2 emissions.
We at NOAA hope this very precise projection, justifies the proposed budget of $4.5 billions for 2019 and would like to remind taxpayers, that is a snip, as it is $1 billion less than 2018.
Is there anybody out there that doubts that when our climate masters are done crunching the data that they’ll list this winter as the fourth or fifth coldest winter on record? Meanwhile, look at natural gas storage numbers in the US and hope the winter moderates a bit to get us through it with enough to get by. Isn’t Europe getting hammered pretty good also?
Meant fourth or fifth warmest, not coldest. I think they’ll cook the data to fit their model.
They should’ve asked AOC.
NOAA predicted for us in Western Europe a very mild winter, and… we have it.
I think that is about to change for a good portion of Europe.
How do you understand “mild winter” ?
I see a normal one beside the snow records in the northern Alps
Very true. It is normal. Just as every extreme weather event is normal but perhaps different than any you remember. Just as global warming, global cooling, and climate change is normal for the planet. Just as varying levels of CO2 is normal.
Why would NOAA be making predictions for Western Europe’s winter?
Virtue signaling?
Because NOAA had a gouverment shutdown and Europe has Angela ‘Angie’ Merkel + Macron.
Another feature of the broken NOAA prediction clock it will be right twice a day briefly.
I am impressed you managed to deduce they predicted Western Europe would have a mild winter though. From what I have seen they have hedged their forecast with about as much flexibility as Old Moore’s almanac.
The principle concept is if you cover all bases you will be right somewhere sometime.
Not so mild for Portugal! We have been consistently 5-6C COOLER since the end of October. A mild winter here is high teens to 20sC, and this is more usual than not. The past two winters have been noticeably cooler and summer 2018 was cooler too, to the point that locals were complaining about how COLD it was in August, when most of the population takes off on holiday down the shore!
11ishC right now with winds gusting out of the NNW at 20 to 35 mph, with intermittent showers. It would be spring if it was a few degrees C warmer….
Sorry Hotscot I am a touchy Jock too. I remember the day vividly It was a stinker of a day and I had been visiting the National Oceonographic Research centre at Bentley. Playfully I asked one of their computer whizzes about their Planetary7 Engineering Simulator . The guy replied “no we don’t have any computers big enough to do that you must speak to the Met Office” . The weather just got progressively worse and I heard Mr Fish say it Bollocks I thought.
It was Englands worst storm. Scotland had its 300 year storm 20 years prior to that when a hurtricane ripped through Glasgow . We always tent to keep ahead of thje Sassenach
Contrary to popular belief, experts aren’t good at predicting. Philip E. Tetlock demonstrated that expert forecasting is usually worse than basic extrapolation algorithms, and that there is a perverse inverse relationship between fame and accuracy in forecasting.
Tetlock, P. E. 2005. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton University Press.
Not being an expert I am safe from that curse. I anticipate that the worst winter of the decade should be the 2020-2021 winter. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation just turned West at 30 hPa a couple of months ago, so next year shouldn’t be East or moderately so, But in two years time it has a good chance of being strongly East. Solar activity should still be quite low and in fact about a year after the minimum the solar effect on weather is maximum, as it happened in 2010. Then in late 2020 a strong La Niña should be developing.
Unless a strong equatorial or northern hemisphere volcanic eruption injects sufficient sulfate in the stratosphere to spoil the party, what should happen should amount to the worst northern hemisphere winter in a decade. I am giving two years warning so you all northern people get enough wood.
Starting around December-January the temperature at the North Polar stratosphere (30 hPa) will jump by 20°C winter average. That’s right, 20°C warmer on average with peaks of +50°C above average. The polar vortex will simply vanish, releasing wave after wave of polar, dense masses of bitter cold air towards North America, Northern Europe, and Siberia, while Greenland temperatures shoot up.
Global surface average temperature might fall by 0.2°C that winter, and will have trouble recovering afterwards due to the Niña conditions.
Save this message and if in two years time it is not as I have told it bring it to my attention and put me to shame. If it is then I should get 1% of what NOAA gets for their failed predictions.
Saved, I think that you are wrong though on 2020/21. The next winter should be colder than this one. The one after that should see warmer temps. It is after that when we will find out imo, if a deeper cold spell is in the cards. Nothing wrong with attempting to decipher what will occur next. It is like betting on sports, it can sharpen one’s thoughts on the subject.
I’ve been following David of Adapt 2030 on YouTube for awhile and he’s been predicting a cooling in the next few decades. He has a decent number of followers. Do any of you weather/climate types have an opinion of his forecasts? Here is an example video.
36 seconds is enough. It is based on faulty science. Abdussamatov’s prediction of a 21st century solar grand minimum is bonkers. We already know solar cycle 25 will not be less active than 24.
Apocalyptic predictions are more interesting, and thus preferred by charlatans. No warming or slight cooling for the next decade or two is possible, a big freeze is not.
I recommend you stop listening to this charlatan.
Thanks
Climate models = fortune teller with a crystal ball at a circus sideshow.
Outlook for 2018/19 winter
Do I assume that their definition of winter is 3 months beginning with the winter solstice on Dec 21?
No. Climatological and meteorological winter corresponds to the complete months of December-January-February.
A lot of monthly data is used and it is bothersome to split it at the 21st or 22nd, whenever the astronomical solstice/equinox happens to fall.
Thanks
It isn’t because it is more convenient, it is because of temperature lag. Just as the warmest temperatures during the day are not at noon but several hours after noon, the warmest and coldest days of the years lag the solstices by several weeks. Thus the warmest temperatures are mid-July and the coldest temperatures are mid-January. Mid-January is right in the middle of the three-month stretch beginning 1st December and ending 28/29 February.
I suppose that is your opinion, or do you actually have any evidence that the meteorological seasons are based on a temperature lag?
From NOAA:
“Because Earth actually travels around the sun in 365.24 days, an extra day is needed every fourth year, creating what we know as Leap Year. This also causes the exact date of the solstices and equinoxes to vary. Additionally, the elliptical shape of Earth’s orbit around the sun causes the lengths of the astronomical seasons to vary between 89 and 93 days. These variations in season length and season start would make it very difficult to consistently compare climatological statistics for a particular season from one year to the next. Thus, the meteorological seasons were born.”
Don’t you think that if the meteorological seasons were based on a lag they would start after and not before the astronomical seasons?
It was convenience and not temperature what prompted the meteorological seasons.
You don’t have to be snippy about it. It’s called Meteorology 101. I no longer have my text book (they generally don’t last 40 years) but here are some sample climate graphs to show you. Chicago: http://tinyurl.com/ya3pnp56 Seattle Washington: http://tinyurl.com/y8ewtb7s Buffalo NY: http://tinyurl.com/ya7dv2nb. Buffalo temperature lag in the winter is more than a month, (probably because the Lakes have to warm up first). But you will find a similar effect world wide.
No. In the northern hemisphere the minimum average daily temperatures generally come in the middle of the three month period Dec-Feb, and the maximum average daily temperatures generally come in the middle of the three month period June-August, making it convenient to break out the meteorological seasons that way.
By the way, before you get snitty again
how many years have you spent either as a certified weather observer or Forecaster? I have 30 years combined.
I couldn’t care less about your certifications. I only care about what you say, and it is wrong.
The astronomical division of seasons is a millennial tradition, but the calendar division is a lot more recent. Obviously first we needed the Gregorian calendar. The Societas Meteorologica Palatina, established in 1781 in Mannheim by the Elector was the first international meteorological institution receiving data from 37 stations in different countries.
The data was gathered, compared, abstracted and published in Quarterly Ephemerides and Annual Reports. That was the origin of the meteorological seasons tied to full months instead of astronomical seasons. They were tied to the Gregorian calendar for convenience, not for any temperature lag. Sweden and Finland use a different system and are the ones that in fact use temperature criteria to define the seasons. Winter begins when the average temperature falls below 0°C for seven consecutive days.
It stands to reason that if the seasons are tied to the calendar, which is a human construct, it is for convenience, and not for temperature reasons.
Your 30 years experience does not mean you are correct. Many climatologists with >40 years experience defend that global warming is due to CO2. Should we believe them on account of their experience? Argumentum ab auctoritate is a fallacy in science.
I didn’t say it wasn’t for convenience. I said that the minimum and maximum daily temperatures of the year conveniently fall (for most stations) in the middle of those three month periods, therefore that is the reason for the Meteorological seasons. Not for any other convoluted reason. I am calling you out because you claimed that a verified phenomenon is my opinion and has no basis in fact. It is textbook Meteorology 101. I just cited my experience to ask you why you, without any experience in meteorology, claim my experience is just opinion. I am no longer going to respond to you on this question since you appear to have such a great opinion of yourself that you would tell the captain of a ship how to pull into port based on what you find on the internet.
I wouldn’t be snippy if you hadn’t said I was wrong without providing the evidence for it.
And your experience is irrelevant in a matter, the meteorological seasons, that was established long before you were born.
All you have provided is evidence that the planet has thermal inertia with regard to insolation. That is so basic that is known by almost anybody with a passing interest in climate and weather. And is unrelated to the origin of the meteorological seasons that were established in the late 18th century and tied to the Gregorian calendar changing months out of convenience.
Watch out that you don’t run your ship aground, captain. Francesco Schettino was also an experienced captain.
Now boys, get a grip. It is summer than starts on 1 December and we do that in Australia because it is the right thing to do. All this blathering about winter makes about as much sense as a March Hare – and the bloody hares are as confused as you are, because March is the start of autumn. We just had the hottest January in the history of the universe, if BoM is to be believed, which it isn’t. So cool off.
Meteorological winter starts Dec 1.
“And in fact, for the forecasts to be reliable (a critical part of a probabilistic forecast), less likely outcomes MUST happen from time to time.”
Beautiful just beautiful.
So 50-60% probability doesn’t really mean 50-60% probability?
It doesn’t really mean anything?
WTF
While currently chilly here in NYC, the winter to date has in fact been quite mild.
We have had very little snow, apart from the November storm that delivered about 6″.
So at least for our area, the overall forecast for the winter may still validate, even with the current record cold snap.
The real lesson, at least imho, is that seasonal forecasts across a continent are pretty silly. The models have insufficient skill to forecast more than a few days at best, even locally. Getting the solution right for a larger area is thus far beyond human reach. Of course, that also raises doubts about the larger AGW claims…
Here in NE Ohio, it’s been extremely mild until this spell of freezing temps. Day after tomorrow is forecast to be almost back to short-sleeve temps (about 50F – short sleeve for Cleveland natives), then almost as warm most of the week.
So how does one decide whether it’s a freezing winter or a mild one? If it’s always either significantly above average or below average, does that mean an average winter? In this case I’d say that mild is a better descriptor.
Agreed that a seasonal forecast is pretty useless with these conditions.
(Of course, my father mentioned the record heat in Australia and record cold here, and told me that was exactly what NatGeo predicted 10 years ago – more extremes. Sigh. He’s hard of hearing, so I’m not arguing with him…..)
Regarding “Now that the observed conditions are a little colder than their October mild winter forecast, NOAA seem to be blaming global warming and warmer oceans for the deep freeze.”: I didn’t see anything in the included link blaming the deep freeze on global warming or warming oceans. What I saw was statements that the deep freeze does not disprove global warming, and a cartoon copied from a March 2015 NOAA post blaming increased snowstorms, not deep freezes, on warming oceans.
The long range forecasts would have been compiled on the anticipation of the ENSO cycle (an El Nino was expected).
Turned out to have barely occurred …. and the wild card was the SSW event at the turn of the year (Sudden Stratospheric warming).
LR forecasts can only be made on the basis of likely probabilities – unlikely ones, though always possible, would not get forecast by a responsible Met organisation. There needs to be a reasonable prob of success, else it’s just speculation, and anyone can do that … as indeed they do in regards to “Exacta Weather” and Piers Corbyn in the UK.
Which is why you get certain f”Foecsters” doing so year after year re (coldest winter for 10 years coming” type “forecasts” that the tabloids print t seel newsprint.
Worst than useless – possible yes but
The SSW started on Dec 18th. The 2 warmest points were on Dec 23rd and 24th. The SSW ended on Jan 10th.
If only the public could cut through the blizzard of misinformation.
National Park Service has produced a map showing IPCC projected sea level rise.
Everyone was afraid that with Trump as president funding for this sort of stuff might be slashed but I guess not.
https://maps.nps.gov/slr/
“Now that the observed conditions are a little colder than their October mild winter forecast”
The forecast was for a three month average. The US was warmer than average in December. January average is not in, but there was a cold snap late in the month. And February still unknown. It’s a bit early to say the forecast was wrong.
The Chicago cold snap has been noted here. But according to WeatherUnderground, the average max for January was 27F, 4F below average. And the average for December was 40F, 5F above average. So far for the winter, modestly above normal, as predicted.
The attention that dangerously-cold and historic cold weather is getting seems to really be burning you up, Nick.
“burning you up”
Well, it’s true that in Oz we have just had our hottest month on record.
“The ACT also had its hottest January ever. The BOM’s Canberra airport site had a record run of four days above 40C.”
Airports again Nick? It’s really sloppy siting on the part of the BoM.
“Airports again Nick”
Canberra was hot. But the record was for the whole country.
What record? The last 50, 100, or 200 years? Now there’s a record to rely on. last summer was the hottest on record. Record started last year.
“The last 50, 100, or 200 years?”
Since 1910.
Hi Nick,
I see that in the article that you cite they say:
Of course, another unmentioned big driver is that the most severely affected areas in Oz have also been in severe drought, that being another ‘weather thingy’ of ‘poorly understood’ predictability.
And, you must know that in the Earth’s total energy budget, the scientifically established greatest heat loss from the surface by far, as reported notably by Trenberth and the IPCC is from evapotranspiration. By definition that cooling is greatly reduced during drought, resulting in higher surface T’s on land. Reminiscent of the 1930’s dustbowl in the USA? How about the oceans covering over 70% of the surface? How are they going?
Are you able to indicate if there is any explanation for these ‘weather events’ in Australia (predominantly in the southeast subjected to a predominantly north-westerly airflow across the hot centre) that can be described as caused by a small increase in the CO2 level in the atmosphere?
Incidentally Nick,
I notice that in terms of WUWT blog-time it was still only January 31, 2019 at 6:25 pm when you cited the hottest ever January for Oz, as was reported astonishingly early online by the national Australian Broadcasting Corporation in much detail.
I wonder if everyone had been so very quick to get the news out with such remarkable speed if it had been a disappointingly unusually cool month such as in January 2018? (The ninth coolest in maxima since 1932, or February the twenty-third coolest since 1914)
Incidentally, what are your thoughts on the BoM’s ACORN-SAT version 2 recently silently replacing the former ACORN-SAT version 1 which was formerly described as amongst ‘World’s best practice’?
Might it have had an influence on the latest data trends?
The hottest temperature in January was recorded at Port Augusta Aero, that site has only been operating since 2001.
Apparently it was also the hottest January in Canberra “ever”, as represented by the Canberra Airport weather station that has been operating since ………. 2008.
It’s impossible to tell what exactly it means to have the “hottest January” across Australia, or the states that are mentioned in the article, since they don’t actually tell you what stations are used to arrive at this metric. As we see above, some of these “all-time” records are for locations that have only recently been added to the network.
Claiming that these “records” for large areas of the country are representing the period back to 1910 seems rather optimistic, given how few of Australia’s weather stations have a continuous history of operation back to 1910.
Tsk. Resorting to regional records, Nick?
GSAT has been on a downward trend since February 2016. Global records are safe.
“Canberra Airport weather station that has been operating since ………. 2008”
Just not true. Canberra is the national capital, and the weather station is located on a historic RAAF base. It is also an ACORN site, and has daily records back to 1939. NOAA 2015 datasheet here.
Port Augusta has records since 1957, at least. The site started at the post office, then to the power station, then to a site called Port Augusta arid lands, and finally the airport.
The record at Canberra was recorded here:
Station: Canberra Airport Number: 70351 Opened: 2008 Now: Open
It only has temp data back to 2008.
If another site exists that has longer records, that’s really nice, however irrelevant to the long term records since they are difference sites.
It’s also lovely that Port Augusta has such long records.
However the record was at Port Augusta Aero:
Station: Port Augusta Aero Number: 18201 Opened: 2001 Now: Open
The 1957 data is for the post office, 1.1km away, which recorded temps for around 5 years. After that the recordings are for the Port August Power Station, which is 4.6km away, it stopped recording in the mid 1990s when it moved to the Port Augusta Land Titles office for a few years (3.2km away).
Claiming “all time records” based on a site that is many kilometres away from the bulk of the historical data isn’t very “sciency” is it Nick?
I looked up the Canberra data, since it intrigued me. It seems your “continuous” record from 1939 is made up of combining the Canberra Airport Comparison site and the new Canberra airport site.
They are very proximate:
Canberra Airport Comparison Number: 70014 Opened: 1939 Now: Closed 03 Dec 2010
Lat: 35.30° S Lon: 149.20° E Elevation: 578 m
Canberra Airport Number: 70351 Opened: 2008 Now: Open
Lat: 35.31° S Lon: 149.20° E Elevation: 577 m
Looking at the years that the 2 ran in parallel, the new station seems to be running at least .2C hot on average with max temps more than .5 higher compared to the prior station.
2009 New Airport Site Jan average 31.3 highest daily max 38.7
2009 Comparison Site Jan average 31.0 highest daily max 38.2
2010 New Airport Site Jan average 31.8 highest daily max 38.8
2010 Comparison Site Jan average 31.6 highest daily max 38.1
Your supplied link is for the Canberra Airport Comparison station, which is why the image you linked to has no data after 2010.
Nick does not like inconvenient facts.
Here is something that strikes me as being underhanded about all of the “hot” reporting about Australia. First Australia has always been known for extremes. Secondly, has anyone ever thought about why we are not hearing any “hot” claims for South America or South Africa?
Media acts as if Australia is the only land mass in the SH. Well, I keep daily watch, and neither of the SA’s are experiencing a hot summer, or any notable hotspots.
And there is the rub:
“The forecast was for a three month average”
In the end it may turn out that despite the coldwave the three month average will still be milder that normal; all statistically and methodologically correct, sure.
But in practice, I think people are right to expect that a statistically-milder winter will NOT include a record-breaking cold snap of historic proportions. Isn’t that a legit request?
That’s one of the problems, the gap between what is mathematically and methodologically correct and what matters in practice.
” Isn’t that a legit request?”
No. You test a forecast against what it was that was forecast. They forecast an average three month period.
Fair enough, statistically that’s correct.
But in practice it means this accurate prediction has close to none utility.
“But in practice it means this accurate prediction has close to none utility.”
No it doesn’t.
If you are planning for a seasonal effect eg winter energy requirements.
Weather Forecasting attempts to do what is possible.
Should they not bother, just because the detail down to individual months cannot be achieved?
Agree with Nick, I suppose, Flavio, that you also think that such a winter shouldn’t include a record high either? Such as happened, for example, in Boston on Dec 21st.
I can’t shake the feeling we’re talking of different things. As somebody pointed out, in average everybody has roughly one testicle and roughly one ovary.
And even if you want to discuss energy requirements, is a season with unusually warm periods and an extreme cold spike the same as one with a limited temperature swings?
It may be or it may not, it’s on you to explain.
History repeats.
TSI has downtrended in January and will go lower from this deep blue sun, while F10.7cm today is 72 sfu.
Actually, the worst winter season I see on tap will be the Winter of 2021-2022, which will rival the 2014 polar vortex winter I forecasted back in 2009.
That winter will begin in early November 2021 and will not end until early May 2022. It will feature heavy snowfall, ice storms, and blocking patterns with longer lasting polar vortex incursions sticking around longer (weeks) than the brief polar vortex of late January 2019.
The winter season this year really begins now in fact and will last until April 2019. I consider the month of March to be mid-winter with a late spring on tap.
All of this is due to the Sun’s emerging quiescent phase, which I long forecasted along with the arrival of global cooling, which precedes the Sun’s Grand Minimum.
We are already a year into this new climate regime of global cooling which will last throughout the 2020s, 2030s and 2040s into the early 2050s. It will comprise three (3) deep solar minimums consisting of solar cycles #25, #26 and #27.
As for NOAA’s 2018-2019 Outlook,
NOAA does not do seasonal climate/weather forecasts very well at all and they know it too; hence their 50/50 probabilities each year.
However, the winter of 2019 will see the extremes of weather due to the radical temperature fluctuations and irregular seasons which is a trademark of the climate global cooling.
In fact, we are about to witness a sharp contrast of temperatures into early February as the jet stream retreats from its mid-latitude meridional flow to a more zonal pattern flow which allows southerlies to greatly raise temperatures across the very same regions that has seen hundreds of low temperature weather records broken during the polar vortex incursion.
Winter 2019 is far from over. We have February, March and April to go with spring late this year by about 45 days. Many people will see a condensed spring season, as climate conditions will appear to go from a waning winter straight into summer this year.
And our northern hemispheric summer will have above-average temperatures while the southern hemisphere will experience below average temperatures.
percent probability of 60 to 65 %, what is a casino % again? 3%? 5? Rolling a dice gets closer results than these “experts” It is a good thing that they don”t have their wages at risk.
here in the PNW, we are having a warmer than normal winter. Temps are barely freezing overnight lows for a coat of frost. sometimes. and frankly – after the last two winters of unrelenting rain, where even I, a native – was sick of the rain! . . . . . I’m going to ENJOY IT!!!
It has been nice for the last several months, but that is about to change by Monday. Then winter returns with below freezing temps. Tueday night wil drop close to 20 F.. Looks like winetr is alive and well. …https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/ca/96024—douglas-city/96024?cm_ven=localwx_10day
Standby, we are supposed to be getting a refresher on what snow looks like by Monday. I was convinced that we were going to get a winter without even a snowflake.
Of course, for Northeastern America this polar vortex at month end was a harsh surprise. See Chicago for January:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/chicago-il/60608/january-weather/348308?monyr=1/1/2019
But the quality of the winter forecasts we will first be able to see when the data from all stations will have become available.
Please remember all that in January 1977, Chicago experienced a month 11 °C below the 1981-2010 average, with not less than eight days below -20 °C (I mean here the daily averages, and not their minima).
At least some meteorologists got it correct
“By KAT HOPPS
19:29, Fri, Oct 19, 2018 | UPDATED: 19:46, Fri, Oct 19, 2018
UK long range weather forecast: Winter 2018 to be COLDEST for years as El Nino hits
METEOROLOGISTS say an “imminent” El Nino event is on its way, meaning winter could be bleaker, weeks after long range weather forecasts revealed we may facing the coldest winter of 10 years in the UK – here is what you need to know.”
https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1034009/uk-long-range-weather-forecast-winter-2018-el-nino-snow-cold-world-meterological
We are still waiting for El Niño. That 70% chance of El Niño by late 2018 did not pan out. So if it is cold in the UK it is not because of El Niño. Right for the wrong reasons?
On a religious tone, El Niño did not come December the 25th. Christmas has been delayed. For those that don’t know, El Niño refers to baby Jesus Christ, as it usually hits Peruvian fishermen (who named it) by Christmas. La Niña is harder to explain in religious terms. The opposite of Jesus Christ is the devil, but better not get into that.
“At least some meteorologists got it correct… Winter 2018 to be COLDEST for years as El Nino hits…”
Could you please explain how that fits to the only 35 daily records for UK below -20 °C found in the GHCN daily database for the period till Dec 31, 2018 ?
One (!) record from a year past 2000.
Between -20 ° C and -10 °C, only two records of 3755 are from 2018 (-10.3 °C).
And an 2019 also doesn’t look like what I understand by COLDEST (-10.3 °C at LEEMING station on Jan 28 was the lowest temperature).
Last not least: this good old El Nino horse stopped hitting a while ago, see Ric Werme’s ENSOmeter.
Daily & Sunday Express? Hmmmh.
“At least some meteorologists got it correct”
Again, people say this stuff without looking at what actually happened. Here is the MO summary for December
“The provisional UK mean temperature was 5.8 °C, which is 1.9 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term average. Mean maximum temperatures were generally 2 °C above average in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and 1.5 °C above in Scotland. Mean minimum temperatures ranged from 3 °C above average in parts of Wales and south-west England to less than 1.5 °C above in the north and east of Scotland and parts of north-east England. “
A very warm month. The January summary is not out yet, but the individual numbers are on CLIMAT here. For example, Heathrow mean max 7.4°C, 0.3 above average. Mean Min 2.3, 0.9 above average. Eskdalemuir max 5°C, 0.5 above average. Etc, almost everywhere above average in Jan after that very warm December.
There is still February to go, but it looks like the Mail/Express forecast was very wrong indeed.
It is getting worse – our children will not know what lake ice is!
BBC scaremongering