Dangerous, Record-Breaking Cold to Invade Midwest, Chicago

Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog

January 24th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

A “Siberian Express” weather disturbance currently crossing the Arctic Ocean will meet up with the semi-permanent winter “polar vortex” over Canada, pushing a record-breaking cold air mass into the Upper Plains and Midwest U.S. by Wednesday.

Chicago All-Time Record Low?

Both the European (ECMWF) and U.S. (GFS) weather forecast models are in agreement that by Wednesday morning temperatures in the Chicago suburbs will be approaching -30 deg. F. The all-time official record low for the Chicago metro area was -27 deg. F (O’Hare) on January 20, 1985, and that 34 year old record could fall as the ECMWF model is forecasting -32 deg. F for Thursday morning while the GFS model is bottoming out at -26 deg. F on Wednesday morning. Of course, these forecasts will change somewhat in the coming days as the cold wave approaches.

Dangerous Wind Chills

Like the record-breaking event of January 1985, the frigid temperatures will be accompanied by strong winds — gusting to 20 to 30 mph — with wind chills plunging to -60 deg. F at times. This is dangerously cold, and I suspect schools will close, water lines will freeze, and travel will be discouraged. Again, this event is still several days away, but the public should be aware of the potential severity of this cold wave.

Not Just Chicago

The GFS forecast temperatures for Wednesday morning shows most of the upper Midwest will be well below zero, and temperatures might not get above -20 deg. F even at midday on Wednesday as far south as northern Indiana. Again, the strong northwest winds will be pushing this air southeast, and Thursday morning will also bring record-breaking cold into the Ohio River Valley.

Forecast temperatures Wednesday morning, January 30, 2019 from the GFS model. (Graphic courtesy of WeatherBell.com).

167 thoughts on “Dangerous, Record-Breaking Cold to Invade Midwest, Chicago

  1. Billions of dollars, perhaps a trillion, have been drained from the American economy to combat “Global Warming.” Dollars that could have been used for infrastructure repair, high speed rail, & resumption of funding NASA to again become the fountainhead of technology creation and spinoff. China hasn’t wasted its resources in a similar fashion, and the resulting differences are stunningly apparent.

    See the CO2 Coalition’s take on this, and lets get our act together again!

  2. Here in South Colorado I’ve noticed that actual minimal temperatures (usually early in the morning) are almost always lower by 5 to 7 degrees Celsius than those shown by meteorological services (such as Accuweather). If what they show, not actual data, goes on record, then what are all those “average temperature” curves worth? Do they reflect some other reality?

    I also note that, while such low temperatures in the morning often happened before, this year colder mornings are much more consistent than in previous 20 years. And, based on what I read about other states, Europe, and Russia, this phenomenon is far from being local.

    • Be careful – The National Weather Service’s high & low forecast for a given date is misleading. The low temperature forecast is actually for the next day.


    • The average temperature is never a member of the ensemble – it describes the ensemble.

      If the average happens to agree with a member of the ensemble it’s coincidence.

      It’s the variance of the ensemble which determines the normal – and it’s a state secret.

      • For those concerned about the veracity of temperature recordings by the official monitoring channels, you can relax.
        The numbers will be automatically adjusted in the coming years to ensure the numbers reveal the preferred history data set….
        I think it goes by the name of Climate Change? Whatever the Climate was we can Change it…

        • So climate change it what climate scientests do to historical temperature data sets? In that case, climate change should be relatively easy to prove.

          • richard verney,

            Would you like to coauthor a paper on this definition of climate change (changing temperature data sets)? Maybe we could get it through peer review. s/

          • I would like to see a summary of the temperature data monkey business where the objective is to make it easy to understand the issue/extent of agenda climate “science” for a general audience.

            More pictures. Something to liven the presentation up such as Time magazine’s cover warning of global cooling and the standard graph that showed the Medieval warm period that was included in IPCC reports before Mann’s hockey stick graph. Less math and long lists of numbers. References to peer reviewed papers.

            It is fun where different people take a try at making a summary.

            Complex problems are solved by summaries. People get lost in the analysis.

            What are the key issues? Twenty century cooling. Pause. Medieval warm period. Past cycle warming and cooling. Elimination of 1000s of rural temperatures, with cherry picked urban temperatures and the connected urban heat effect.

            The changes to the temperature record were made are to push CAGW. The unaltered temperature data hardly supports AGW. It certainly does not support CAGW.

    • Steve is right on the forecast low temperatures.

      The high is the daytime high of course, but the low is the forecast low of the overnight following that day. This means that the low will actually occur in the pre-dawn hours of the *next* morning.

      This makes services like Accuweather a useful tool for deciding if one needs to provide extra protection to frost-tender plants during transitional weather periods, or to livestock that live outdoors.

      To find out the low for the current morning, look at the previous day’s predicted low.

      • The weather service day ends at 8:00 AM. This is because that is the time when many of the volunteer manned NOAA stations could be read. rather than the volunteer getting up at midnight.

        • Where do you get the weather services day ends at 8:AM? I spent many years as a weather observer and then a forecaster and our days went 24/7/365. My shift ended at 8 but the official day for weather went from midnight to midnight.

    • Check for personal weather stations near you on the Weather Underground network. The well-sited ones will give reliable data to compare with your measurements and the official weather station.

      • @Loren: you also need to know the oddities of the PWS. For instance, my pws (http://tinyurl.com/yb5u6355) on clear, cold nights is 3-5 degrees below the surrounding stations even though the sensor is 15′ above ground level (I know not kosher, I wonder what it would be if it were at then required 6′). I attribute this to living within 1/4 mile of a wildlife refuge.

    • You may be in a suburban or rural setting while the official low may be measured at an urban or airport location that is affected by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect.

    • It’s similar to my reason to go to the buoy data for hurricane wind speeds (boaters actually use/need reliable data). Lately there seems to be a bias toward inflating the wind fields. I need to go back and check the data again but last I looked at the historic data of the gauge (tower not buoy) at Tyndall AFB where the hurricane very nearly passed right over, I didn’t see much over 60knots not even in gusts. If this data is correct then it scares me twice. First the ground level winds may be exaggerated as reported but then really bad damage happens at these wind speeds. We helped stock a church caravan taking stuff up to the big bend. Interestingly but maybe not surprisingly there was a specific request to send coloring books and crayons. Cracker Jacks happened to be on sale and then hygiene items. A random lady at the store asked what we were doing and gave us 20 to help. Faith in humanity somewhat restored.

      I know it happened during Andrew and one other hurricane that I don’t remember but I noted it because the NWS reporting stations both failed (blew off) at 140mph.

      • I believe those winds are open field winds-i.e. without a lot of trees buildings etc. I have observed quite a few times in high wind situations in the PDX metro area that the official sites PDX, TTD, HIO where the wind ‘birds’ are between runways get winds close to what is forecasted, but the personal weather stations do not get close to that because of the large number of trees in the city. The trees get the brunt of the actual winds and, yes they take damage before the houses will. It is for that reason that you will see in farming country a lot of houses built in the lee side of a row of trees planted just to break the wind.

          • The buoy that you refer is owned by NOAA and is 75miles from Tyndal AFB. You said “at Tyndall AFB” I know their page says Tyndal AFB tower. Seeing as you Said “at Tyndall AFB” my point still stands. Land stations have lower reported winds. A buoy is much closer to the geostrophic winds than a land station. If the buoy isn’t reporting what the models say that the wind should be then it is time to look at the models. The models no longer get a reality check. For most of the worlds tropical cyclones, in contrast to what it was forty years ago, the winds are from models. Forty years ago, every Hurricane in the Atlantic and Pacific and every Typhoon had reconnaissance flights through them as a reality check. Now they run reconnaissance only if it looks as if it might hit CONUS.

    • You need a new thermometer my friend. There’s no way that a calibrated thermometer is 5-7 off the NOAA one or any other nearby. The closest station to me is just a couple miles away and we’re always within a couple of (F) degrees.

      • I disagree. It is much more likely a location issue. When I was going through meteorology school in the Navy we were given an example of one station which was 5-7 deg colder than surrounding stations in clear calm conditions at night. They discovered that the sensors were located in a small hollow (about 8 feet lower than the runways and cool air would pool there first. At my house even though I don’t have that issue (my sensor is 15′ above the ground) because I am relatively close to a wildlife sanctuary, during similar situations I record 3-5 degrees below the ‘official’ stations. When clear, dry, calm conditions are expected in the Portland OR area they always append “except [5-10 degrees lower] in the cooler areas.”

        The official temperatures are in truth the temperatures for a 30×30′ patch of ground. It can vary wildly. Several times when I was doing my Reserve drill weekends at NAS Whidbey Island, on one side of the station it was 58deg F (in fog) while on the other side it was 81deg F with clear skies, a distance of about 4 miles.

    • Morning low temperatures in the mountains (like southwest Colorado) can be extremely localized due to inversions. Where I live the morning low is usually almost 10 degrees warmer than the official low recorded in the valley below because the cold air sinks to the valley floor.

  3. In Australia, day temperatures predicted for the next day by the Bureau of Meteorology are routinely 2-3 degrees over those actually experienced on the day. This is done to reinforce the Global Warming message. The prediction is remembered and the reality forgotten. Joanne Nova has written extensively about the corruption in the Bureau of Meteorology’s official record, station standard and missing data. All this is done to achieve funding staffing and grants for the Bureau of Meteorology.

    • I have often wondered if the actual temperature broadcast on the news is simply a repeat of the prediction. Unfortunately I am not in a position to check.

    • This is why the Guardian always report Aussie weather from the future. It’s always : NSW is “set to ” hit xxx deg C tomorrow”.

      They rarely come back and say : yesterday temperature reached xxx deg C in NSW.

        • Don’t you know: CO2 is a bipolar molecule . . . it causes hotter heat spells and colder cold spells.

        • This is not just a cold spell. Severe cold weather may continue to move south with possible snow in New Orleans mid-week. For the South and Eastern part of the country this will continue possibly through March. That is, if Joe Bastardi’s forecast is right. Also, the snow will continue to pile up in the Midwest. Canada has already broken records well over a 100 years old for cold temperatures and snow.

          Keep repeating your CO2 comment often and in public. Skeptics around you will be smiling at you.

          As I’m looking out at a sunny morning and my weather station is reporting 59 degrees F at 8:46 I’m glad I’m in Yuma, AZ. We will have a slight warming trend to highs in the mid-70’s over the next two weeks.

  4. I posted on my FB page this morning:

    The next big weather story is about cold air moving into the Chicago area that may threaten their all-time cold record of -27F on 1985 Jan 20. I just saw a weather update comparing our current weather to 1985 and how similar the maps are.

    While trying to think of some personal memory of that week’s weather in NH, I thought of President Reagan’s second inaugural and news stories about a NH (Londonderry?) marching band’s disappointment that the parade was canceled due to cold in DC.

    Yep! Same system! So when people try to blame next week’s weather on Global Warming or Catastrophic Climate Change or worse, just ask them what they were doing during the inaugural.

    More at https://www.nytimes.com/1985/01/21/us/reagan-sworn-for-2d-term-inaugural-parade-dropped-as-bitter-cold-hits-capital.html

    What do you remember from the 1985 cold snap?

    • I was living in Chicagoland that year. I remember bitter cold. We added a third heating zone to our built in 1922 Winnetka house (old hot water radiator system) as a result.

      • I remember it was 20 degrees below zero F as the sun was setting and I could hear the wooden beams in the roof of my house moaning. I remember that the next day I had a business trip to Atlanta and after making an heroic trip to Chicago’s O’Hare airport almost all of the flights were cancelled. I remember by sheer luck my flight was one of the very few that got out.

        • Marty, Canadian here. That moaning in your attic may be the nails in the trusses shortening in the cold. They can ,over a decade or two ‘pull themselves out’. I helped a friend about 39yrs ago hammer on metal truss plates to reinforce it.

      • Europen white Americans may have become a bit too soft. Intrigued by some of the comments, I looked up people of the LIA era who lived in the area:
        “In the 1600s, when American Indians first came into contact with Europeans in the Great Lakes region, two Native American ethnic groups inhabited the land that would eventually become the State of Illinois. The first group–known to French explorers and missionaries as the Illinois or Illiniwek Indians–was a collection of twelve tribes that occupied a large section of the central Mississippi River valley, including most of what is today Illinois. The second group, the Miami tribe, lived in villages located south and west of Lake Michigan.”
        With no proper built insulated houses, no central heating, thermal clothing, etc the Illinois and Miamis were no snowflakes.

      • I vividly remember a valuable lesson I learned. If you start your car to charge the battery, drive it around. Don’t just let it sit and idle. My wife was working and started her car, during her lunch break, and let it idle for 15 minutes. When she was done with work, it would not start. The battery and starter worked fine, but no ignition. And troubleshooting a dead car outside at -25F, is a bad day.
        I went over and determined that the spark plugs were not working, even though they looked fine. The effects of cooling those plugs after running the car, causes a condensation of frozen fuel,and water vapor, that prevents them from sparking.
        If you run your car in temps of -20F or lower, drive it around. It is common knowledge in Alaska, but the Midwest rarely sees temps like this.

    • I remember that cold snap. The record was preceded by several days of very cold weather, and cars were not starting as the cold acted as a Darwinian filter, killing off any that had the wrong oil or a weak battery. The highs were all below zero. Then came the record….

      My first house had no garage, so the car sat outside all night. I had to go to work the next day, so I removed the battery and put in the house. But then I had to reinstall it at 7Am, and it is hard to work the wrench with gloves, so I had to take them off.

      Old Volvo, manual choke, it started, sounded bad for a few seconds as the oil got moving, but I got to work. Brutal and dangerous wind chills – but Chicagoans are tough. Last night it was -17 here.

      • Thank you for reminding me why I moved. 🙂
        I was born in Chicago and lived for 20 years just west of O’hare. But those were the years we were being told the next ice age was imminent. The Jimmy Carter “turn-the -clocks-back-2-hrs” winter was brutal. Waiting on the corner for the school bus, stomping our feet to keep blood in our toes…
        an entire month where the temperature did not get above 0 °F (-18 °C)
        Only those who have experienced it will understand what “nose hair freezing cold” means.

        • And if you wear glasses you know what instant blindness is when you come inside and your glasses frost over.

  5. data manipulation to ‘prove’ global crisis and gain funding – data facts not computer manipulation….

        • The “ridicule” comes via pointing out the ridiculousness of the assertion he made.
          IOW: Just pointing out the “bleeding obvious”
          Unless you have some substantial evidence of the conspiracy I can refute?
          No, of course not – as a conspiracy is “proven” because there is no evidence.
          Just fevered minds at work.
          Often the case on here.

          • And when called out on his ridiculous claims, Anthony doubles down on his hole digging.

            Yes Anthony, you’ve told us time and time again. Anyone who doesn’t believe everything that comes from a government agency is nothing more than a conspiracy monger who must be ignored.

  6. Renewable energy from wind turbines! That’ll solve all this!
    Need more frozen windmills across that region!
    Maybe a few solar farms, cause those work so well at night when its also the coldest.
    Yep 100% renewable power… that’s the ticket!

  7. This is the 850mb (5000ft) temp forecast temp anomaly for Wed 30th Jan…..


    Notice the mid-west plunge is by far the greatest in the northern hemisphere.
    But NOT the cold (these are anomalies).
    Shows that the Arctic air is ANOMALOUSLY displaced.
    Notice also how much more red there is elsewhere…..

    The NP temp series shows that it has seen above ave temps this winter…..


    The more open Arctic waters again caused a slow freeze-up.
    The displaced stratospheric PV caused by the warming at the turn of the year (SSW) has also split and displaced the tropospheric PV. The main vortex (as is usual) moving into Canada with occasional lobes being forced south into the States.
    That part is normal and nothing to do with CO2.

    Notice the flip … the anomalous warmth in the west into Alaska …


    So it is the movement of airmasses.
    Where it comes down it has to go up somewhere else.
    Meanwhile the NH average temp is +0.7C

      • Samuel:
        Thank you.
        However it is chicken and egg.
        The two come as a package, in that the PJS is the result of Arctic air adjacent mid-latitude air.
        It is true that the PJS’s movement – in this case southward, brings with it Arctic air – but it is also true that a bodily moving polar vortex will displace the PJS.

        • Of course, the old, if it’s different from what it was a couple of years ago, that’s proof that CO2 is the cause of it.

        • However it is chicken and egg.
          The two come as a package, in that the PJS is the result of Arctic air adjacent mid-latitude air.

          Anthony Banton, me thinks you have been miseducated …. and maybe because you were reading this, to wit:

          The breaking off of part of the vortex is what defines a polar vortex event. But it actually occurs when the vortex is weaker, not stronger. That might sound weird—but it actually makes sense. Normally, when the vortex is strong and healthy, it helps keep a current of air known as the jet stream traveling around the globe in a pretty circular path. This current keeps the cold air up north and the warm air down south.

          But without that strong low-pressure system, the jet stream doesn’t have much to keep it in line. It becomes wavy and rambling. Put a couple of areas of high-pressure systems in its way, and all of a sudden you have a river of cold air being pushed down south along with the rest of the polar vortex system.

          Anthony, the height of the PJS is, to wit:

          the polar jets, at nine–twelve km (30,000–39,000 ft) above sea level

          And the PJS is ALWAYS “wavy and rambling” regardless of whether it is winter, spring, summer or fall,

          If the PJS loops down toward the equator it will SUCK cold artic air behind it …… and if it loops up toward the Pole it will SUCK warm tropical air behind it.

    • We get these weather patterns when it is cold. The colder it is, the more we get them. We are lucky that we don’t get them as often as we did in the 70’s when the Chicken Little’s of the climastrology profession claimed it was the beginning of another Ice Age. When we were in a cyclical warm phase, they are very rare. When we were in a cyclical cold phase they are common.
      They are not caused by warming. They are caused by the land losing heat faster than the oceans. Even when the oceans are covered with sea ice, they are loosing more heat to space, than the frozen land is. So your speculation about Arctic displacement is incorrect. It is colder in Siberia than anywhere in the Arctic, because it is furthest from the oceans. And sooner or later that dense air will displace warmer less dense air, when it moves.

      • When these patterns happened in the 70’s, that was just weather. The same patterns now are caused by CO2. The models have spoken.

  8. The NOAA forecast for Chicago Rockford International Airport, is not nearly as cold for next Wednesday. link As of the time of this comment, the forecast shows -22 F for Wed. Jan. 30 night. The similar forecast for O’Hare is -16 F. link

    Someone found a record breaking cold forecast for my location for last week. It got plenty cold but nowhere as cold as the forecast.

    Anyway, we’ll see what happens next week.

    • You might like these Air Sports Net forecasts better.


      The forecast only goes out for 60 hours, as the error bands are intolerable after that. (The NOAA forecast 5 days out is about as valid as the Farmer’s Almanac)

      I love the graphical presentation and that they forecast temps, dew points, wind direction & strength, visibility, chance of precipitation and the amounts (and many more) in three hour slices; all things that real pilots need to plan for. I use it for my long distance cycling habit, as the details of exactly when and how much rain will come are very important to me. Other forecasts are stated in the form “50% chance of rain tomorrow afternoon” – not exactly useful. Air Sports Net will tell you exactly when and how much. So if the amount listed is for less than 0.01″ per 3 hour block, then we ride, as the pavement will barely be wet, and likely still dry under the trees. If the forecast is for more than 0.1″, then we stay home or ride earlier. In between those and the percentages matter, as they tell the difference between unavoidable overcast hazy drizzle and puffy cumulonimbus that we might be able to ride around. The dew points and wind speeds are also great for getting the clothing exactly right, as our typical rides are 60 miles in just under 3 hours.

  9. Once global warming was exposed by sites like this as the lie it is, Oz had to come up with something to keep their scheme going. (The alternative being this is a long-term project unfolding and the run-up was part of the deception.) Unfortunately, what they’ve come up with may not end well. They’ve taken something they shouldn’t have been experimenting with, and put it on a level that would appear to have neither a near-term chance of return because of the unknown’s involved.


    If it wasn’t another long-term scheme for avarice, then consider: Laugh us and our global warming crisis into the ground? Well, just sit right there and watch while we produce a global warming neither you nor anyone else on the planet will forget. And they rushed the project. Behind the curtain with nary a peep from their MSM streetwalkers. Which would have been a cakewalk if the Internet and sites like WUWT hadn’t come along.

    For what it’s worth:

    NASA Satellite Imagery Reveals Shocking Proof Of Climate Engineering


    • Kym,

      Not all conspiracy followers are irrecuperable. Maybe a constructive addition to your comment would be to id the phenomenon as atmospheric gravity waves (if I’m not mistaken).

      • Then why did we get the same weather patterns in the 70s when arctic temperatures were plunging and we were headed into the next ice age?

    • I’m just waiting for geoengineeringwatch.org to reveal the real reason the guys in black trench coats flying around in black helicopters have been manufacturing rainbows all these many decades . . . and, btw, have you noticed the significant increase in the frequency of double-rainbows . . . what’s up with that???

  10. It’s a return to the weather of the 70’s and 80’s. It was -30 to -40F during my college years and when I moved to Wyoming. I walked to night class in -70F wind chill (yes, I can verify that with weather records, not just my memory—I know how poor memory is for data storage) and drove to college in snow “channels” that were opened by a rotary plow. I have photos of all of this. Yeah, it’s cold again. The hysterics over the cold point more to “human change” than “climate change”. Humans can’t seem to deal with the weather anymore…..

    • It t’was during a wintertime in the mid-70’s, when I was living near Utica, NY, that my outdoor thermometer was registering an early morning temperature of -38F.

      I heard later that at Port Leyden, NY it was -42F that same morning.

      -10s and -20s F were common during the 1970’s.

  11. I have lived in Northern Wisconsin my whole life, and “Dangerous, Record-Breaking Cold to Invade”(s) every February like clockwork.

    • I Agree. Growing up around the Milwaukee area in the ’60-70’s, I don’t ever remember a school day that was closed to low temperatures and maybe one or two days a year due to snow. I’ve since moved away, but the last time I was back in that area in March of 2003, for ten days the temperature never got above zero (℉) the entire time. That is where you learn very early to dress appropriately when outside, either working or playing.

  12. Looking at the icy image of Lake Michigan, I was thinking about the wind turbines and the solar panels out there generating electricity to keep people warm.

    I live in the central Colorado in the mountains (9800 Ft). It gets cold here. It was 16F this morning (before sun rise). The sun was out all day and the outside temperature rose to 18F by late afternoon. I though about CO2. Its increasing, the sun was out all day and yet the outside air temperature climbed by only 2F. What is the warmth capturing CO2 doing? Not impressive at all. Our attached sun room was warmer than our home. Not scientific. I know. However, if CO2 is supposed to capture and hold in the warmth, it is not working very well at least on this day. LOL

    • George T, ….. I heard somewhere that the “warminists” claim that the CO2 works the bestest at capturing and holding in the warmth …… when it is used as “insulation” in the exterior walls and the attic of their homes and businesses.

      “YUP”, pumping that CO2 into the walls and attic is kinda like putting that expensive “thermal underwear” on their abode.

      • Any gas is a good insulator since it has very low conductivity. Most good insulation materials are mostly air for that very reason. Vacuum is even better, having zero conductivity, but it is kind of difficult to pump into your walls.
        However filling a wall cavity with gas only will not work well, since the gas will start circulating (convecting) and thereby transfer heat. It works much better if the gas is confined in e. g. plastic foam or frigolite (cellulose foam).

        • But, but, but, ….. tty, ….. were are talking about that GHG “magic molecule”, carbon dioxide (CO2), that after it absorbs that IR thermal (heat) energy it keeps it “trapped” in its electron shell and causes the temperature to increase which keeps the inside of your home warm n’ cozy. It works better than Styrofoam or the “pink” fiberglass.

          But instead of that CO2 causing “global warming” ……. it causes “house warming”.

  13. It’s ice fishing weather, for Pete’s sake.

    I keep track of what Accuweather posts, including their “forecasts”, which change with whichever way the winds blow. I also check those against the NWS. Accuweather seems to be dead set on engaging in hysterics, but never say ‘Oops!’ when they are wrong. I have a thermometer on the front steps that I can check to verify the real temps.

    Yes, it’s cold now, and yes, I was in Chicago in 1985 when the temps dropped to -25F in my neighborhood. But it was a weekend and I didn’t have to go outside except to walk my dog. And despite her thick coat, I had to put a jacket of mine on her during those brief outings. We stayed indoors and watched TV and had popcorn.

    I have serious doubts that this “forecast” temperature will hit that low, but if there IS a possibility, I’ll get the warning ahead of time.

    • Just to be sure I’m not going to get hit by this, I checked both Accuweather and NWS forecasts for that date.
      For my area and the surrounding areas, it will be -19F, NOT -30F.

      If air that cold does hit anything, it will be Chicago. Glad I don’t live there any more. The Siberian Express is a plume of air, frequently loaded with precipitation, that comes straight down Lake Michigan and hits the south side and Indiana. There are several hills between my area and the lake, which do a fine job of blocking that kind of thing.

      • I find it hard to believe it will break a record, it just don’t feel right.
        I’m writing this from my home of 56 years, 2 miles west of O’Hare airport.
        Current temp -2F, 5 inches of snow cover.
        Predictions are for heavy snow Sunday night into Monday, then comes the cold….
        We’ll see.

      • Keep us posted on this, please.

        Exaggeration in forecasting weather is a very weak thing for any weather service to engage in.

  14. as of this minute KARR aurora illinois is breaking its record cold by 16 degrees. (currently -23.9) that’s a neat trick superimposed on global warming!

  15. Climate chaos, and it’s our fault. We have killed the climate with all our carbon contaminations.

  16. The latest Global Forecast System (GFS) direct model output for Chicago O’hare Airport (KORD) from the run initialized at 06Z Jan 26 2019 is still showing a low of -29F for KORD for Wed Jan 30. The GFS weather model is run four times daily and the direct model output (interpolated from nearest grid points) for KORD can be seen here:

    So far the model has been fairly consistent for KORD over the last several runs, so it will be interesting to see how it finishes out over the next several days.

  17. Cold in Chicago is cold especially with strong winds off the lake. But I am sure the Minnesotans and Alaskans, will say “-30°F, having a bit of warm weather down there”. My father overwintered in northern Greenland, I do not remember him mentioning temperatures but he went to Barrow AK at -40°F and thought it not too harsh.

  18. Now imagine if there weren’t all that extra CO2 in the air absorbing and emitting those 0.82 eV photons, how cold would it be then? Yeah, probably indistinguishable.

    • Read my latest page and let me know what you think?

      Henryp, I liked your commentary …. as it should surely help to re-educate a few of the brainwashed partisan “warminists”.

      But I do hafta question the following statement, to wit:

      87 years earlier we had a similar problem in the USA, the drought time apparently largely being the cause of the decimation of the Bison….

      There were a couple factors that caused “the decimation of the Bison”, ….. but drought wasn’t one of them, to wit:

      1. wholesale slaughter of the buffalo by “white” hunters to provide food, coats and lap robes for the increasing Eastern US population.

      2. wholesale slaughter of the buffalo in order to starve the Native American Indians into submission.

      Read more @ https://www.legendsofamerica.com/we-buffalohunters/

      • SCC
        I seem to remember reading something about a lot of buffalo leather being exported to Europe. Also, buffalo tongue was a delicacy in the big eastern cities. The bones were also ground up for fertilizer for agriculture.

      • Samuel

        Thanks for ur comment.
        I can check again, if you want me to, just give me some time on that

        but it appears that the ‘killing’ of bison by humans was not as much as what was previously thought and that the amount of bison simply killed by the drought was much larger. It is just that the two things came together
        – at a terrible time for the bison population –

        no doubt

        I am predicting that the next decade is going to be a disaster, food wise, for either man or animal.

  19. Will all the lefty city folk get the message?
    Warming is OK, it’s survivable, more so when you have you have cheap energy. Cooling is very dangerous, it kills, it kills more if energy cost are willfully cranked up.
    So city folks consider, over the last decade have the winters averaged to warmer or colder than the previous decade?

  20. Didn’t NOAA predict a warmer than average winter. Hmmmmm.

    I live near one of the -35 F predictions. Just one day like that wouldn’t be bad. However, we are supposed to get up to 12″ of snow Sunday night and then drop below 0 F on Monday and stay below zero until Friday afternoon. Winds are supposed to be 15-20 mph during this period as well. That means wind chills -60 F or worse.

    Yeah, good thing we’ve had all this global warming or it might get really cold.

    At least it is supposed to warm up to only 10 degrees below average next weekend before the next cold blast hits us.

  21. In 2007, when I started following this stuff, I did an experiment with our local weather forecasts after I had noticed as earlier commenters here report, that they seem to have “added” a degree or two to forecast temps. I took their 7 day forecasts and subtracted one degree C from each day’s. Over a couple of months, my 7 day “forecasts” were better than the official over 70% of the time. I think a long test of this method would be statistically revealing.

    Because of this brief test, I’ve wondered if weather forecasting comes up with numbers over a range, and that belief in the theory results in selection of a possibility on the high side as a “hedge”.

  22. I’m going to make a forecast: With all this Arctic air moving out of the poorly monitored Arctic, into the more densely monitored Canada and US, 2019 will show another decline in GAST.

  23. This weather will kill people. If we followed the advice of the AGW cheerleaders, it would kill more people. Real people, right now! Not in some future problem that is always in the distant future of constantly wrong computer models.
    Energy from fossil fuels and nuclear energy, is the difference between life and death for millions of people this time of year. To oppose that is to support people dying of preventable causes.
    The GangGreen movement is anti-human. And their policies are designed to remove the “excess human population” from the Earth. And they plan to make sure they have the power to decide who is “excess”. The only thing standing in their way is Constitutionally Guaranteed Freedom, supported by Free Market Capitalism. At the root of the AGW problem, it is not a “science issue”. It is a political one. How to destroy what works for the most people, and replace it with what works for the fewest people. That is their top level agenda. Wind mills and solar panels are just a side show, to keep use arguing about W/m and zettajoules.

    • Real cold is always dry. It is too cold for the air to hold moisture. It has to warm up to snow. When the “Siberian Express” hits town, we call “damp cold”: WARM!

      • As a person that has lived outside in places from New England, to the NW US and Alaska and the Alps in Europe and up in Norway I am convinced there is an as yet unidentified factor that effects our perception of cold. IOW what I am saying is that in Up state NY into the Green Mountains of Vermont or the White Mountains of New Hampshire, 0 F or -30 F feels colder than the same temp in the Alps in Germany or Italy. IOW the cold in NE hurts more, is more bitter, than the cold at the same temp in Germany. There has be some factor which we do not perceive or measure to account for that. To find the same bitterness in cold in Europe as I have experienced in New England and up state NY, one has to get up into Norway. This is not just my own perception since I was an SF medic working to keep team members from suffering cold weather injuries in all of those places during the depths of winter and I know that others have had the same perceptions.

        • It is the exchange rate between *F and *C 🙂
          The obvious reason is the wind, which can be difficult to compare accurately, over extended time periods. Gusting winds are more efficient at penetrating your defenses, especially when they sandblast you with ice crystals. So equal comparison are difficult, but you already know that.
          The other two areas that come into play are sunshine, and altitude. During daylight hours the sunlight does not heat up the air very much in snow covered areas, because it is not absorbed by the snow covered surface. But your surface is absorbing sunlight, both directly, and from the reflection off the snow. In mountainous areas the sun is more intense because it goes through less atmosphere, and is frequently intensified through sloping surfaces that can reflect more light on you, than a flat surface would.
          The altitude also lowers the air density, which means a similar wind would have less of a wind chill factor just because of a lower density of the moving air.
          The way to isolate your “unidentified factor” is to see if it is independent of daytime versus nighttime. Then try to isolate if it is altitude dependent.
          My guess would be the sunlight issue. The intensity of the sun is greater at altitude. Combine that with snow reflection amplification and it feels warmer even on cloudy days. Once the sun goes down that effect rapidly goes away, and the nighttime cold would feel similar.

  24. Samuel

    Thanks for ur comment.
    I can check again, if you want me to, just give me some time on that

    but it appears that the ‘killing’ of bison by humans was not as much as what was previously thought and that the amount of bison simply killed by the drought was much larger. It is just that the two things came together
    – at a terrible time for the bison population –

    no doubt

    I am predicting that the next decade is going to be a disaster, food wise, for either man or animal.

  25. I have been told recently that it is really cold in the USA but not cold in the UK but the USA is generally at a higher elevation than the UK and many areas in the UK have a lower maximum elevation then the mean USA elevation therefore to get a fair comparison with the UK you would need to allow for elevation. I don’t know how this winter is going to end up it changes every day but the jet stream plunging south at the UK does mean it is heading away from the North Pole which should help the growth of arctic sea ice ,if we get high pressure over Greenland then maybe it will get a bit colder in the UK this winter.

  26. The CBC never late for any horn-blowing climate change alarmism gratified us with this gem:

    The coldest air on earth, normally parked over Siberia, is headed our way next week, says Eyad Atallah (…) “It’s not unusual for our climate to have swings in temperature,” said Environment Canada meteorologist Alexandre Parent.
    “That being said, what we experienced over the past few days over southern Quebec … that’s out of the ordinary.”(…) Eyad Atallah, an atmospheric scientist who lectures at McGill University, says the heavy snow and rain indicates a weather pattern Montrealers should come to expect — more frequent bouts of heavy precipitation.
    “That’s pretty well-documented now,” Attallah said.
    He said another change Montrealers will likely see is longer and more frequent cold snaps.
    The coldest air in the planet is normally over Siberia, but with climate change, Attallah says, that arctic air is shifting — and people living in northeast North America, including Montrealers, may witness that next week.
    “This pattern is becoming more likely with climate change: where the west coast of North America is abnormally warm, the Arctic is abnormally warm, and the cold air that we normally would see over the Arctic becomes displaced, towards our region.”

    This morning the lowest temperature in Canada was in NU at minus 47.4 centigrade.
    This image shows the distribution of cold air, Siberia clearly experiencing as cold or colder temperatures too, invalidating the comments of “Siberian air” responsible for Canada’s cold. https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_nh-sat3_t2min_1-day.png
    Funnily enough, the experts consulted by CBC do not marvel at the existence of such brutally cold air in the Arctic where “amplification” is supposed to rule the day…
    So global warming creates colder air that tends to affect larger zones and push back some warm air around it. Huge discovery from these experts.
    Should a glaciation occur, it will be a case of runaway global warming…

    • RealFeel® Temperatures can plummet under 40 below zero F across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday night and hold there through Wednesday. This includes in Minneapolis and Chicago. In some communities, such as Fargo, those readings can plunge under 50 below F.

      • That not unusual for Fargo, in 1997 we had a cold spell for 72 hours id did not get warmer than -20 the highs of -20s was the norm. When it warmed up to -19 I unzip my coat when I was blowing off the driveway, by the way that year we got 117 inches of snow. My home town 70 miles away is colder as are points further east, they are all higher than Fargo. The coldest I seen is -50 radial tires get flat spots at those temperatures it was kind of funny since bias ply tires get flat spot in the – teens something I had been use to by -50 was the first time it had happen with a radial tire. That -50 was in western North Dakota in the mid 80s, when I was a child I did have to walk to school and back in that kind of weather all though our parent drove us if it was in the teens of below, the coldest I walk to school was in -30 degree morning the car would not start that morning even with the tank heater. Northern Minnesota and North Dakota can have nasty winters, that is why I live in Arizona now, shoveling sun shine is a lot easier than snow.

    • It is good the State of Illinois is broke. Hard to send money to foreign lands when you can’t fund the public workers retirement fund.

  27. With very cold air near -20 F and below we can be entertained using water

    first squirting very hot water out of a water bottle

    Then squirting hot water from a water squirt gun

    Watching water get super cooled in plastic bottles

    Or just blowing soap bubbles

  28. Looks like Wed. is the day Chicago will bottom out on temperature…and a lot of it might move into the citrus area so be ready with the smudge pots, etc. (FLA)… just sayin…

  29. I think you all are missing an important opportunity here….now is the time to round up all those people that believe CO2 will make them warmer; I have a greenhouse in a field next door, it’s big enough for all of them, all we need is some extra CO2, we could put them in there and let THEM decide if CO2 is a contributing factor after they spend the day and night Wed. Bonus if we give them a knob where they can increase or decrease the CO2 levels and watch the temperature gauge to record it.

    I live in NE WI, we are really trying to not have to break records of the Polar Vortex of 2014, where it was -60 wind chills at my house and I had frost inside. It was a fantastic indicator as to where the damn drafts were coming in, let me tell you. Come Spring, those places got some extra insulation and silicone caulk. Now I am in an apartment and am off today to go get more plastic and tape, because there is a draft alongside the north wall–where the wind will be coming in. I don’t need frozen carpet.

    Anyone that believes a warmer Earth is bad, needs to sit in that greenhouse IMO. It’s the PERFECT opportunity to wipe out this nonsense in 1 blast from Mother Nature.

  30. Just Jenn

    I think where things got wrong in the past with Arrhenius and Tyndall is precisely because they limited their experiment to a closed box, I think similar as to what you propose… There probably would be some heat trapped in your greenhouse. The effect of ‘global warming’ was compared to stepping out of a shower cubicle long after you switched off the water: there is some lingering heat in the water vapor so you feel the cold when you step outside?
    They only ‘measured’ the heat from earth in the closed box as apparent from the trapped radiation from earth 10-15 um. They did not look at the spectrum of the whole molecule, simply missing the radiation that is deflected off from earth in the 0-5 um which is in the spectrumof the sun.
    I am trying to explain to you in a simplified version as to why warming by GH gases was a fail to begin with.

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