New study claims to establish a causal link between climate, conflict, and migration

This is another brick in the wall of my theory that all climate attribution studies are extended exercises in Texas Sharpshooting ~ctm

From the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

IIASA-led research has established a causal link between climate, conflict, and migration for the first time, something which has been widely suggested in the media but for which scientific evidence is scarce.

There are numerous examples in recent decades in which climatic conditions have been blamed for creating political unrest, civil war, and subsequently, waves of migration. One major example is the ongoing conflict in Syria, which began in 2011. Many coastal Mediterranean countries in Europe are also inundated with refugees arriving by sea fleeing conflict in Africa.

IIASA researchers Guy Abel (also affiliated to Shanghai University), Jesus Crespo Cuaresma (also Vienna University of Economics and Business), Raya Muttarak (also University of East Anglia), and Michael Brottrager (Johannes Kepler University Linz) sought to find out whether there is a causal link between climate change and migration, and the nature of it. They found that in specific circumstances, the climate conditions do lead to increased migration, but indirectly, through causing conflict.

“This research touches upon the topic widely covered in the media. We contribute to the debate on climate-induced migration by providing new scientific evidence,” says Muttarak.

Asylum seekers are more likely to be influenced by conflict than usual migrants, so the researchers chose to use data from asylum applications from 157 countries from 2006-15 to study the patterns. These data were obtained from the United Nations High Commissions for Human Rights (UNHCR). As a measure of climate conditions in the asylum seekers’ original countries, the team used the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which measures droughts, compared to normal conditions, through identifying the onset and end of droughts, and their intensity, based on precipitation, evaporation, transpiration, and climatic conditions such as temperature. To assess conflict, Abel and the team used data on battle-related deaths from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP).

These datasets were fed into the researchers’ modelling framework, along with various socioeconomic and geographic datasets. These included the distance between country of origin and destination, population sizes, migrant networks, the political status of the countries, and ethnic and religious groups.

The researchers found that climate change played a significant role in migration, with more severe droughts linked to exacerbating conflict.

The effect of climate on conflicts is particularly relevant to countries in western Asia from 2010-12, such as the so-called Arab Spring, political uprisings which occurred in countries including Tunisia, Libya and Yemen, and Syria, where the conflict led to an ongoing civil war. In Syria particularly, long-running droughts and water shortages caused by climate change resulted in repeated crop failures, with rural families eventually moving to urban areas. This in turn led to overcrowding, unemployment and political unrest, and then civil war. Similar patterns were also found in sub-Saharan Africa in the same time period.

“Climate change will not cause conflict and subsequent asylum-seeking flows everywhere. But in a context of poor governance and a medium level of democracy, severe climate conditions can create conflict over scarce resources,” says Crespo Cuaresma.

The researchers say that concerns relating to climate change-induced conflict leading to migration should be considered in the context of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). At present the link between climate change and migration is not explicit, and they are not treated as interrelated. Further research is needed to more fully understand migration flows.


From EurekAlert! Public Release: 23-Jan-2019


Abel GJ, Brottrager M, Crespo Cuaresma J, Muttarak R (2019). Climate, conflict and forced migration. Global Environmental Change DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003 []


More information:

Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) –

Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) –

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John Tillman
January 24, 2019 12:04 pm

It has been obvious for millennia that colder climate causes migrations, barbarian invasions, societal decline and violence. Balmier weather, not so much.

Al Miller
Reply to  John Tillman
January 24, 2019 12:08 pm

Well said John- it is cold that we need to fear not the politics of warming.

John Tillman
Reply to  Al Miller
January 24, 2019 12:25 pm


The cool period between the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods is often called the Dark Ages CP, but also the Migrations or Volkswanderung CP. So sensitive is Europe to climatic downturns, ie coolings, that even just countertrend cycles in secular warm intervals, let alone secular cool periods like the conflict-riven LIA, can send the Volk wandering:

Changes in North Atlantic Oscillation drove Population Migrations and the Collapse of the Western Roman Empire

Shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from 1–2 to 0–1 in four episodes increased droughts on the Roman Empire’s periphery and created push factors for migrations. These climatic events are associated with the movements of the Cimbri and Teutones from 113–101 B.C., the Marcomanni and Quadi from 164 to 180 A.D., the Goths in 376 A.D., and the broad population movements of the Migration Period from 500 to 600 A.D. Weakening of the NAO in the instrumental record of the NAO have been associated with a shift to drought in the areas of origin for the Cimbri, Quadi, Visigoths, Ostrogoths, Huns, and Slavs. While other climate indices indicate deteriorating climate after 200 A.D. and cooler conditions after 500 A.D., the NAO may indicate a specific cause for the punctuated history of migrations in Late Antiquity. Periodic weakening of the NAO caused drought in the regions of origin for tribes in antiquity, and may have created a powerful push factor for human migration. While climate change is frequently considered as a threat to sustainability, its role as a conflict amplifier in history may be one of its largest impacts on populations.

John Tillman
Reply to  John Tillman
January 25, 2019 6:51 am

Going farther back, the Bronze Age Collapse and invasion of the Sea People occurred during the cool period between the Minoan and Roman Warm Periods.

The Egyptian Warm Period was also followed by disaster and downfall caused by cooling climate:

John Tillman
Reply to  Al Miller
January 24, 2019 5:44 pm
Reply to  John Tillman
January 24, 2019 12:47 pm

What I don’t get is why the political left is totally unwilling to trade ending phony “birthright” citizenship, building permanent border walls and restricting immigration from historically absent groups in exchange for ending ‘climate’ change. Geeh, that’s so weird! If we end ‘climate’ change, then none of these groups will have any business coming here so it ought to be a piece of cake restricting this “immigration,” right? Or are they actually going towards societies that are naturally affluent and that provide ‘programs’ and the political left sees a permanent underclass voting base?

Reply to  Bill
January 24, 2019 1:14 pm

Illegal aliens get welfare. They have babies, babies get social security numbers, babies become ‘adult’ food stamp and Medicaid recipients. Weird how the political left refuses to do anything to impede this flow of “immigration,” even if we ‘fix’ ‘climate’ change. Huh, it’s almost like they know that one is REAL and the other is PHONY, but the prior empowers them and the latter will enrich them and without the prior they no longer have any power to enrich themselves.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Bill
January 24, 2019 6:26 pm

“Illegal aliens get welfare. ”

I saw a report on tv the other day that claimed each illegal alien that crosses the border costs the American taxpayers $82,000.00.

Maybe we should just pay them $50,000.00 to stay home.

Reply to  John Tillman
January 24, 2019 2:32 pm

However! Warm weather in the Middle East has caused VIOLENCE and an invasion of Europe by ME Refugees. Oh wait! You mean something other than Warm-ing weather caused the violence?

January 24, 2019 12:11 pm

Political climate, yes. As was observed in the last mass migration across Mexico, and the trail of tears from Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, and the waterboarded children in the Mediterranean. Social justice adventures are a known first-order forcing of catastrophic anthropogenic immigration reform.

joe - the non climate scientist
January 24, 2019 12:11 pm

Skeptical Science ran a few studies last summer which determined that the migration out of vietnam’s mekong delta was due to global warming – completely ignoring the increased manufacturing production over the last 10-15 years once freed from communism.

January 24, 2019 12:13 pm

Haha, just another case of speculative nonsense correlations:
– puuhhh, the weather is so hot, I’ll think I’ll shoot u!

PS: Good luck with the US cold wave now, it will probably turn the Donald into a friendly puppy before he flees to Hawaii

Reply to  Telehiv
January 24, 2019 1:13 pm

No, that was queen Nancy Pelosi who fled to Hawaii…a true cataclysmic AGW/CC believer.

January 24, 2019 12:17 pm

There likely is a link between climate, conflict, and migration. But only when there is a drastic and rapid change in climate. For example, when Indonesian volcano Mt. Tambora erupted in 1815, it caused crop failures in the northeast United States in 1816, called the “year without a summer” which resulted in migration westward for better opportunities.

But “global warming” aka “climate change” happens so slowly that no one will notice enough of a change in a human lifetime to incite mass migration.

John Tillman
Reply to  stinkerp
January 25, 2019 6:42 am

Cold over a year or more also drives people out of less hospitable climes.

Tom Schaefer
January 24, 2019 12:19 pm

Actually, a more direct causality has been shown between leftist and totalitarian regimes, poverty, and migration.

Reply to  Tom Schaefer
January 24, 2019 2:35 pm

What temperature causes the migration of cultures that practice female genital mutilation of 8yo girls?

David Guy-Johnson
January 24, 2019 12:21 pm

Sheer unadulterated crap

Reply to  David Guy-Johnson
January 24, 2019 2:18 pm

There are very few riots in old folks homes in the middle of the Saskatchewan winter.

Climate is one factor that affects history, there are lots of others. My favorite is a surplus of young, single, idle men. link

Reply to  commieBob
January 25, 2019 10:43 am

Civilization was invented to keep the surplus of young, single, idle men from blowing up society. War between tribes was the way to give them something else to do that might be useful.

Rich Davis
Reply to  David Guy-Johnson
January 24, 2019 5:25 pm

aka EurekAlert!

Dave O.
January 24, 2019 12:23 pm

The causal link between climate alarmism and the inability to think clearly has been well established.

January 24, 2019 12:26 pm

Climate has and always will cause migration. Ice ages, droughts, flooding, moving tree lines, and so forth have caused significant human migration in the past.
But people generally do not want to move unless forced to or given the opportunity at a far superior lifestyle.

There is a very significant deterrent to migration however. And that is prosperity. And prosperity pretty much is dependent upon how much energy you are able to expend in your day to day lives and how much brute force you can muster in extreme situations. Here in the United States of America our poorest citizens have very good lives compared to middle income people in many other countries. Many of of those other countries are in Africa and many in South America. America has tremendous amounts of cheap energy available to expend and create prosperity.

Brian RL Catt CEng, CPHys
January 24, 2019 12:29 pm

I think that proving cause from correlation using a multi variate non linear computer model to determine correlation is simple not possible, as ceteris paribus is assumed, which is not the case in reality.

There has to a repeatable law no one can disprove. Where is that?

Without it this proves nothing and is just another prediction from just another model, with some elements of the blindingly bloody obvious, written in academe, for a grant out of the climate change research budget.Time these people were put back into productive work in the private sector. Get a real job and stop bringing science into disrepute..

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Brian RL Catt CEng, CPHys
January 24, 2019 1:33 pm

US physicist and Nobel laureate Richard Feynman summed up your argument (that the Social Sciences are not science) in this nice concise interview snippet.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
January 24, 2019 2:12 pm

An honest man

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
January 24, 2019 2:46 pm

A former PhD colleague used to refer to the social sciences as the “silly sciences.”

John Tillman
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
January 24, 2019 5:35 pm

Not a “climate scientist”, so what does he know?

Not an ordained member of the priesthood.

January 24, 2019 12:32 pm

With Syria, and a good many of the countries in Africa, the internal politics had an effect so large anything else is purely marginal.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Tom Halla
January 24, 2019 2:53 pm

Could the situation in Syria have anything to do with a minority Shiite dictatorship in charge of a majority Sunni population?

Joel O'Bryan
January 24, 2019 12:47 pm

It has been obvious as well that socialism is far more disruptive than even changing climates.

Even a moderately developed society can easily survive climate change as long as its political systems remain stable and people are able to keep most of what they grow or earn and trade freely. That is, personal incentives to apply their labor and capital to enterprise remains. Introduce total socialism (government forced confiscatory levels of re-distribution) and the demise is all but certain.

The late columnist and pundit Charles Krauthammer observed, “A country can get a great many things wrong and still prosper. But get it politics wrong and its decline (and even demise) are all but certain.”

Some prominent examples:
– Stalin’s collectivization of Soviet agriculture
– East Germany compared to West Germany
– North Korea compared to South Korea
– Zimbabwe compared to Rhodesia.
– Venezuela in the Chavez-Maduro era.
– Peronism in Argentina.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
January 24, 2019 1:34 pm

“It has been obvious as well that socialism is far more disruptive than even changing climates.”

Yes and no. Syria is a socialist state to a significant degree, but it was Muslim Brotherhood aspirations for a sectarian government (as opposed to Baathist secularism) that fueled the current conflict.

Dave Fair
Reply to  icisil
January 24, 2019 3:06 pm

icisl, please note that the Brotherhood is a Sunni religious organization, supporting the imposition of Sunni-interpreted Sharia law. Don’t be misled by their apologists.

Reply to  Dave Fair
January 24, 2019 3:14 pm

Nothing is funnier than seeing people such as Mr. Fair speak about Islam and Sharia law in Syria. I suggest Mr. Fair take a trip there and see what is happening on the ground before spewing nonsense here.

Reply to  David Dirkse
January 24, 2019 5:12 pm

If he went to Damascus (or any other city controlled by the Syrian army) he would find many Sunnis (along with other religions) living in a westernized, secular, tolerant culture. If he went to Idlib he’d become al-Nusra’s (al-Qaeda in Syria) hostage or be killed.

Reply to  Dave Fair
January 24, 2019 3:57 pm

Nothing funnier than watching Dirkse once again whine that people who don’t agree with him must be wrong.
All the while not even bothering to offer a counter argument. We are just supposed to think as highly of his as he does.

Reply to  MarkW
January 24, 2019 5:10 pm

MarkW sticks his nose into a conversation all the while not even bothering to offer anything.

Maybe MarkW can tell us all about what is happening on the ground in Syria. MarkW must know all about Sharia law and the antagonism between Sunni and Shia.

Come on MarkW, tell us.

Reply to  MarkW
January 24, 2019 7:50 pm

David, this is the type of behavior that got you put on probation just a couple of days.
Trying to thread jack a conversation.
I don’t have to present any arguments to point out that you didn’t present any arguments.
Perhaps if you were as smart as you keep telling us you are, you would have a smidgen of familiarity with basic logic.

Reply to  MarkW
January 24, 2019 7:51 pm

PS: You are the one who is proclaiming that other people’s comments are incorrect, yet you continue to refuse to offer an argument to support that charge.

John Tillman
Reply to  icisil
January 24, 2019 7:15 pm

Ba’athism, ie Arab national socialism, was always torn between its socialist and Arab nationalist branches.

But in Syria, Ba’athism was captured by the Alawite minority (11%), allied with the even smaller Shi’a minority. The Alawite regime could only suppress the Sunni Arab majority, plus Sunni Kurds and other groups like Druze, Christians, Yazidi, etc., by brutal violence in every decade since seizing power in the last in a series of coups in the early ’70s.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
January 24, 2019 1:34 pm

“Today in Venezuela. Thousands demanding freedom from Nicolás Maduro’s dictatorship.”

The Trump Effect is gaining steam….

David L. Hagen
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
January 24, 2019 5:41 pm

Consequently 100,000,000 died at the hands of their own governments when communism ruled in the 20th century – by Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot etc. Documented in The Black Book of Communism: Crimes, Terror, Repression. Today’s fascination with “socialism” would drive us down to the same depths if not turned back to foundations of Western Civilization. See Venezuela’s current catastrophic economic collapse from the largest (heavy) “oil” reserves to 10 million % / yr inflation. e.g. See The Book that Made Your World.

January 24, 2019 12:58 pm

“Asylum seekers are more likely to be influenced by conflict than usual migrants”

Poor quality social science. The researchers fail to recognize immigration seekers are more likely to claim whatever circumstances they perceive will be most effective to support admission into objectively better countries to live.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Ralph Dave Westfall
January 24, 2019 1:16 pm

Implicit to civil strife and conflict within a society are political differences that arise from religious and ethic differences. So their argument is circular in that regard. And Syria is full of balkanized religious and ancient tribal differences. For these researchers to use Syria as their example is intellectual laziness bordering on dishonesty.

Irish immigrants leaving starvation in 19th Century Ireland did not need to seek political asylum inorder to emigrate to the US.

In the US today, the biggest groups seeking asylum are from Central America where decades of political repression continue to take larger and larger economic tolls on the people there. Being in the tropics, climate change in Central America (no matter how it is defined) has been minimal to non-existent. The only impact that even the IPCC’s worst alarmists can identify in the tropics is their causal claims of coral bleaching. I doubt anyone from Central America can claim they need US political asylum to escape coral bleaching.

January 24, 2019 1:06 pm

New study claims to establish a causal link between climate, conflict, and migration

Okay, now consider these:
New study claims to establish a causal link between being human, conflict, and migration
New study claims to establish a causal link between breathing, conflict, and migration
New study claims to establish a causal link between thinking, conflict, and migration
New study claims to establish a causal link between sunlight, conflict, and migration

… all authored by Captain Obvious et al.

January 24, 2019 1:10 pm

Absolutely true with onset of a severe climate change. My ancestors use to enjoy Roman warm period at the shores of Baltic sea, then climate change, crops regularly failed etc, etc, so they decided to move south. Not so welcoming Germanic tribes blocked their way, decades of fighting ensued, eventually they made it a bit further, then there were these nasty Mongolians in present Hungary, more fighting to do to get into the warm Roman lands. By then it was East Roman Empire, gone all soft and not keen on fighting, but my lot was different, the climate change and conflicts turned peaceful agri-farming people into barbarians too keen on robing, piliging etc. Soft Mediterranean climate eventually did do it’s bit, they accepted Christianity and alphabet to create medieval empire on ruins of Eastern Roman one.
Watch out for Canadians when climate turns nasty again, as it surely will do sooner or later, hopefully much, much later.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  vukcevic
January 24, 2019 1:22 pm

Those Canadian climate refugees are everywhere here in Tucson Arizona at the moment. Fortunately they can’t take the summer heat and are gone by April, only to return again by November. 🙂

(Not bashing Canadians at all. I had 4 years of childhood in Edmonton.)

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
January 24, 2019 9:51 pm

As punishment for picking on the great white north, we are sending you a vortex via the southward bulging jet. It is -33C and windy tonight and due to stay that way. A major blizzard is sliding in Sunday and we’ll push that south too! So there! If you pick on us again we’ll send you Trudeau.

To stay on topic, the real cause of migration is the cell phone/ internet. Folks can see how good it is elsewhere in real time (called the demonstration effect) and then look for opportunities like EU diversity and inclusivity (open borders) or USA catch-and-release policies (sanctuaries etc). They can even find out where the benefits are best, and locate coyotes, smugglers and friendly NGOs online. There are even rent-a kid services.

Chris Hanley
January 24, 2019 1:33 pm

Tunisia Libya Yemen Syria etc., one country in the region not mentioned is Israel where the overall population grew by 2% in 2018 not including 250,000 illegal foreign workers and African migrants residing in Israel:

January 24, 2019 1:53 pm

We are constantly told that there is no known phenomena in human life that is not adversely affected by human production of CO2. It is not the science but the politics that we need to fear.

January 24, 2019 2:01 pm

Food abundance driving conflict in Africa, not food scarcity

The study refutes the notion that climate change will increase the frequency of civil war in Africa as a result of food scarcity triggered by rising temperatures and drought. Most troops in Africa are unable to sustain themselves due to limited access to logistics and state support, and must live off locally sourced food. The findings reveal that the actors are often drawn to areas with abundant food resources, whereby, they aim to exert control over such resources.

To examine how the availability of food may have affected armed conflict in Africa, the study relies on PRIO-Grid data from over 10,600 grid cells in Africa from 1998 to 2008, new agricultural yields data from EarthStat and Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset, which documents incidents of political violence, including those with and without casualties. The data was used to estimate how annual local wheat and maize yields (two staple crops) at a local village/town level may have affected the frequency of conflict. To capture only the effects of agricultural productivity on conflict rather than the opposite, the analysis incorporates the role of droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index, which aggregates monthly precipitation by cell year.

From Dartmouth College March 1, 2018 comes Food Abundance and Violent Conflict in Africa. by Ore Koren.

Then there is Mike Hulme who posted Climate Change and the Syrian Civil War Revisited

For proponents of the view that anthropogenic climate change will become a ‘threat multiplier’ for instability in the decades ahead, the Syrian civil war has become a recurring reference point, providing apparently compelling evidence that such conflict effects are already with us. According to this view, human-induced climatic change was a contributory factor in the extreme drought experienced within Syria prior to its civil war; this drought in turn led to large-scale migration; and this migration in turn exacerbated the socio-economic stresses that underpinned Syria’s descent into war. This article provides a systematic interrogation of these claims, and finds little merit to them. Amongst other things it shows that there is no clear and reliable evidence that anthropogenic climate change was a factor in Syria’s pre-civil war drought; that this drought did not cause anywhere near the scale of migration that is often alleged; and that there exists no solid evidence that drought migration pressures in Syria contributed to civil war onset. The Syria case, the article finds, does not support ‘threat multiplier’ views of the impacts of climate change; to the contrary, we conclude, policymakers, commentators and scholars alike should exercise far greater caution when drawing such linkages or when securitising climate change.”

My synopsis is

January 24, 2019 2:05 pm

ADS said it, the key to all so called “Climate” matters is to have cheap and reliable energy, usually that means electricity.

Australia is a very good example, with a population of 25 million, despite a very large country, we are situated in a dry zone of the planet. Its about the same as the Middle East, its mostly semi desert country.

The result is despite good engineering most of our inland waterways are now one large interconnected lake system.. This results in a slow moving river system to the fury of the Greens who want lots of fast moving water to save numerous small creatures and plants which they consider to be far more important than us humans.

With a growing population we will run out of water very soon.

But as we are a first world nation we will change over to de-salunation plants to get our fresh water from the seas. But this all takes energy, lots and lots of it, and with the present mix of renewables and fossall fuel power stations , electricity is far too expensive to have very large scale sea to fresh water plants.

Plus the strong push by Green government s to close down our fosserl fuel power stations.

Now this situation also applies to many parts of the world without cheap and reliable electricity then people will move to where they hop for a better way of life. But this then conflicts with the people already living the re, and in countries such as the UK, thy are already overpopulated at 70 million.

As always its all about energy and that results in conflict with the Greens and their political supporters. Of course its then further complicated by those who want to take advantage of this instability for their own long term political agendas.

Nuclear is of course the obvious answer, but the Greens for their long term political agenda, oppose this falling back on the 1960 tees posters such as the mother clasping a child to her breast while in the background rises a mushroom cloud.


Reply to  Michael
January 24, 2019 9:50 pm

Or you could build 70 new major dams.

January 24, 2019 2:42 pm

From one Bill, to the other (commenting above), just as an add on to what you were saying…in Australia under the loony left we had the “boat people” coming, thousands and thousands of them. Many perishing on the way and ALL having thrown away their docs that got them across several safe countries before they got to Australia and the dream of a subsidized lifestyle vastly superior from whence they came.
Then our conservative gov took over and we introduced several measures the LL railed against, such as off shore processing on Nauru and Manis Islands, turned back boats where possible and introduced temporary protection visas. Together all this works and we haven’t had more than one or two boats even try it on since.
Bit by bit the “refugees” were returned home until only a handful remained and many of them went to the US under a deal struck with Odingbatama before he left office, Trump was rightly furious when he found out whet he had inherited. But still the deal was followed through on and “they” went to the US. It may interest you to know that many who went to the US now want to return to Manis Island…!? Even though refugee advocates were telling us all what a terrible hell hole Manis is and the shocking way they are treated there. In Manis Island everything was free to them….in the US they have to work.
So what we have here seemingly is not a refugee from injustice or the bloody climate, but a refugee from hafting to work. Around 80% of settled refugees in Australia never get a job. And 100% of those sent home did not face persecution.
We have a federal election in May and the LL may well get back in due to severe mindlessness of the general Australian public whose concentration span is similar to a gold fish. Watch the boats immediately come flooding back. If anyone doubts my version of events, and thinks the boats will not return, perhaps they would care to make a wager?
The reason for illegal migration is this: They have TVs now, they can see what we have and are told by the smuggling operators that everything will be for free, free housing, medical etc etc. And that’s it, they travel across several countries to get to Indonesia whos police force take bribes to facilitate the whole thing. And on to Australia, where everything is free, why wouldn’t they come? I would.
Build your wall or lose everything. If they begin to succeed hundreds of thousands will come…if not millions and you will be “replaced.” Just as in Europe.

son of mulder
January 24, 2019 2:52 pm

It’s why Hitler invaded Poland, because he was too warm.

Dave Fair
January 24, 2019 2:54 pm

Could the situation in Syria have anything to do with a minority Shiite dictatorship in charge of a majority Sunni population?

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Dave Fair
January 24, 2019 5:28 pm

If it’s Sunni for too long, drought conditions arise.

But if it is cloudy and wet too often, the weather is absolute Shiite.

Phil R
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
January 24, 2019 5:51 pm

LOL! I’m stealing that (if I can remember it in the morning).


David Blackall
Reply to  Phil R
January 24, 2019 5:58 pm

Ha, a poet. But seriously, Sunni majority Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with their atrocious human rights abuses, are not democracies (hereditary, absolute monarchies) and they provided support to ISIL, al Qaeda, al Nusra Front, and other radical Sunni groups who were forming the proxy armies in Syria’s invasion. U.S. Vice President Jo Biden, said as much. Whether this is a true account or not, a photograph of Hillary Clinton shaking hands with Qatari Rebels, the image summarises her history just the same. The image was allegedly taken after she made arrangements for 1800 of Qatari Rebels to invade Libya and Benghazi, then move into Syria with Libya’s Sarin gas to use on Syrians and blame Assad. This, of course was to give false reasons to start a war to force President Assad to leave and be replaced with a CIA puppet.

Reply to  David Blackall
January 24, 2019 7:53 pm

There is no rumor so tenous that those who want to believe the US is the cause of all problems, won’t believe it and pass it on.

January 24, 2019 3:02 pm

My question is : Was there definitions of climate and climate change given in this paper? Even if the unrest was initiated by a drought that is not necessarily due to climate change. The Middle East and North Africa have climates that include times of drought. If there has been more drought in the last 30 years than the previous two or three 30 year epochs then there is possibly climate change in evidence. Five or ten years of drought is not unusual in the climate of that area. Calling that weather pattern climate change and claiming it as a “cause” seems not only illogical but likely aimed at implying I caused the “climate change” by using gasoline in my car.

David Blackall
Reply to  DMA
January 24, 2019 5:34 pm

DMA you are right, they never define climate change, it is just faith ‘oh it is real’.

In a YouTube clip titled ‘Chris Hedges Best Speech August 2018’, the American journalist, Presbyterian minister, and visiting Princeton University lecturer [Chris Hedges], lays out the systemic ‘triumph of the spectacle’ and the ‘sacrifice zone’ problems of today. The temperature focus is a distraction from the real environmental disaster caused by war in Syria, Libya etc, Hedges speaks of the elite [Rockerfeller Foundation] profit from hedge funds trading in carbon. This distracts, divides and conquers people so that nothing real is done to interrupt the liberal elite in their profit making. CO2 is not the issue, yet they make it so. Coal mining at the local level is dirty and toxic, but it is NOT carbon dioxide that is the toxic component. These pollution issues will worsen into the future because of the liberal class. The narrative of climate change is a direct diversion the elites conjured so the masses fail to notice the real environmental catastrophes, all of which are observable.

Hedges speaks: “I did a book with the great cartoonist Joe Sacco, called ‘Days of Destruction, Days of Revolt’ where we went to the poorest pockets of the United States, Camden New Jersey for example, which per capita is the poorest city in America and not surprisingly always has one of the highest homicide rates in America. Um, to talk about ‘sacrifice zones’, and that of course is something you as Canadians have to cope with, the tar sands [oil fields] being the one of the largest sacrifice zones in North America along with the coal fields of Southern West Virginia, and Northern Kentucky where we also wrote a chapter. If you wanna understand what a poisoned, toxic landscape looks like, when these people [the elites] are finished, you should fly as Joe and I did, eurh, over the denuded and scarred, Appalachian Mountains with the tops blown off and the trees gone, billion gallon toxic ponds, of lead and heavy metals. Arh, every two hours we were driving through these old coalfields, we’d have to stop and clean off our back window because it was black with dust. You went into elementary schools and you went to the nurses’ office, and there were just rows of little inhalers with the name of every child on it. That’s the world that these corporations will create as the globe becomes one big sacrifice zone.”
Chris Hedges (2018) ‘Chris Hedges Best Speech August 2018’, YouTube.

January 24, 2019 4:35 pm

War, violence and persecution have uprooted more men, women and children around the world than at any time in the seven-decade history of UNHCR according to a report published today.

The UN Refugee Agency’s annual Global Trends study found that 65.6 million people were forcibly displaced worldwide at the end of 2016 – a total bigger than the population of the United Kingdom and about 300,000 more than last year.

Strange…no mention of climate change?

David Blackall
January 24, 2019 5:19 pm

The contents of this paper are so inaccurate it is funny, but it is really serious and sad for them to be writing such ‘deflecting propaganda’. Using pseudo science they are making excuses for those who orchestrate war, by suggesting that climate change causes war. In reality, politics, corruption and sheer brutality in hegemonic desire delivers the drive to start wars, like it did in Syria, Libya and Iraq. Nothing whatsoever to do with climate, rather the greedy grabs for oil, gold and a lust to rejuvenate neo-colonialism.

Here’s a quote: “In Syria particularly, long-running droughts and water shortages caused by climate change resulted in repeated crop failures, with rural families eventually moving to urban areas. This in turn led to overcrowding, unemployment and political unrest, and then civil war. Similar patterns were also found in sub-Saharan Africa in the same time period.

“Climate change will not cause conflict and subsequent asylum-seeking flows everywhere. But in a context of poor governance and a medium level of democracy, severe climate conditions can create conflict over scarce resources,” says Crespo Cuaresma.

January 24, 2019 6:25 pm

“This is another brick in the wall of my theory that all climate attribution studies are extended exercises in Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy”

Yes sir.
A case of confirmation bias.

Mickey Reno
January 24, 2019 6:26 pm

The first stage in the next glaciation period has already begun. Canucks and Minnesotans are migrating south in greater and greater numbers. And some from Connecticut. OH, the humanity!

2 mile thick glaciers crawling along to scrap away Toronto and Montpelier cannot be far behind. What will Bernie Sanders think about that, do you suppose?

Tom Abbott
January 24, 2019 6:45 pm

From the article: “In Syria particularly, long-running droughts and water shortages caused by climate change resulted in repeated crop failures”

When they say “climate change” they mean human-caused climate change.

There is no evidence that humans are causing the climate to change. These scientists are assuming things not in evidence. They are basing their findings on unsubstatiated speculation.

Before you can prove that human-caused climate change/global warming (CAGW) is causing some effect, you first have to prove that CAGW exists. This has not been done yet. They are jumping the gun; putting the cart before the horse; going off half-cocked; etc.

Every one of these studies assumes too much. The basic building block for all their climate science, that CAGW is real, has never been established as fact. Despite a whole lot of trying.

What a fiasco this climate science is!

January 24, 2019 8:09 pm

Not a new conclusion though usually caused by cooling rather than warming

Cooling affected harvests during the late Roman Empire , depleting resources and leaving the empire vulnerable to invasions [migrations] by the Goths and Huns

A Chinese perspective
” most nomadic migration peaks were accompanied by little rainfall, low
temperature, or both”.

Though warming [or at least drying] caused people to migrate from the [formerly savannah] Sahara to the Nile Valley

January 24, 2019 9:44 pm

“New study claims to establish a causal link between climate, conflict, and migration”

Did anyone check for correlations with welfare benefits or green political control?

Eugene S Conlin
Reply to  WXcycles
January 25, 2019 2:01 am

Certainly over-generous benefits and provision of free housing to migrants and “refugees” who have passed through many safe countries in Europe before claiming “asylum” in the UK would appear to have much to do with the migration from the Middle East and Africa.

Flavio Capelli
January 25, 2019 1:33 am

Uhm, a large fraction of those requesting refugee status in Europe are denied. Moreover, there is strong evidence that a series of criminal organizations and NGO push for more immigration for a mix of ideological reasons and mere interest.

I’m not sure a model can correct for these effects, even if the authors considered them.

Steve O
January 25, 2019 4:32 am

Well, they tried. That’s the important thing.

Maybe next time they can study whether arming rebel groups through a (formerly) secret CIA base in Benghazi could have a destabilizing effect and lead to civil war, resulting in migration.

Jim Whelan
January 25, 2019 10:04 am

The usual correlation is causation fallacy as well as then “texas Sharpshooter.

Texas sharpshooting is easy with climate change: Find anything that has increased in the past ten or twenty years and you’ll find it correlates with an increase in CO2! The only thing that these correlations all have in common is that they happened in the last 10 or 20 years. For the warming/climate crowd thats enough.

Sally G
January 25, 2019 12:00 pm

What they really proved was a possible causal relationship with weather – not climate!

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