Here’s a new one: “The Little Ice Age could offer a glimpse of our tumultuous future.”

Guest now I’ve heard everything by David Middleton

From that eminent scientific publication, Foreign Policy

The Coming Climate Crisis

The Little Ice Age could offer a glimpse of our tumultuous future.


Over the last couple of decades, as the impact of global warming has intensified, the discussion of climate change has spilled out of the scientific and technocratic circles within which it was long confined. Today, the subject has also become an important concern in the humanities and arts.

Discussions of climate tend to focus on the future. Yet even scientific projections depend crucially on the study of the past…


Perhaps the most intensively researched of these periods is the Little Ice Age, which reached its peak between the late 15th and early 18th centuries. This early modern era is of particular interest because some of the most important geopolitical processes of our own time trace back to it.


During part of the Little Ice Age, decreased solar irradiance and increased seismic activity resulted in temperatures that, as Geoffrey Parker writes in Global Crisis, a groundbreaking global history of the period, were “more than 1 [degree Celsius] cooler than those of the later twentieth century.”

The current cycle of human-induced global warming is likely to lead to a much greater climatic shift than that of the Little Ice Age.


Amitav Ghosh is the author of The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable. @GhoshAmitav

Foreign Policy

Okay… Increased seismic activity caused cooling? While seismic activity is often associated with volcanoes and volcanic eruptions, volcanic eruptions generally aren’t a subset of seismic activity. I would have phrased it this way…

During the Little Ice Age, decreased solar irradiance, a few big volcanic eruptions and a whole lot of unknown factors may have contributed to temperatures that, as Geoffrey Parker writes in Global Crisis, a groundbreaking global history of the period, were “more than 1 [degree Celsius] cooler than those of the later twentieth century.”

The Little Ice Age was a bona fide climate crisis… Famines, cannibalism, Frankenstein, Dickens, glaciers bulldozing villages…

The Little Ice Age was really bad. It was the coldest climatic phase of the Holocene…

Holocene Climate Reconstruction, Andy May WUWT.

The fact that it’s warmed a bit more than 1 °C since the nadir of the Little Ice Age is a climatic miracle, not the precipice of a “coming climate crisis.”

Barely 40 years ago, we were on the precipice of “The Ice Age Cometh”…

According to the models Gorebal Warming saved us from The Ice Age Cometh.

If not for the miracle of climate models and all of the warming they can’t explain without tripling the climate sensitivity to CO2, we’d still be on the precipice of “The Ice Age Cometh”… Just ask Leonard Nimoy… What’s that? He’s dead? Well then, just watch the video… especially Stephen Schneider’s bit (20:06)…

It gets even worse…  Fiction can’t even save us from Gorebal Warming, not even science fiction…

The Great Derangement


176 pages | 5 1/2 x 8 1/2 | © 2016
Berlin Family Lectures
Are we deranged? The acclaimed Indian novelist Amitav Ghosh argues that future generations may well think so. How else to explain our imaginative failure in the face of global warming? In his first major book of nonfiction since In an Antique Land, Ghosh examines our inability—at the level of literature, history, and politics—to grasp the scale and violence of climate change.

The extreme nature of today’s climate events, Ghosh asserts, make them peculiarly resistant to contemporary modes of thinking and imagining. This is particularly true of serious literary fiction: hundred-year storms and freakish tornadoes simply feel too improbable for the novel; they are automatically consigned to other genres…


The University of Chicago Press

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January 24, 2019 3:10 pm

Stop the presses, Global Warming now predicts extreme cold. The New Ice Age cometh, repent all ye sinners. Bring out your dead. Buy your indulgences now.

Reply to  David Middleton
January 24, 2019 3:37 pm

Oh Ghosh, it’s worse than we thought.

Big T
Reply to  Greg
January 24, 2019 4:40 pm

Ice fishing getting better!!

Bryan A
Reply to  Big T
January 25, 2019 12:12 am

Well at least they are starting to acknowledge the existence of the Little Ice Age, something Mikey Mann is still in Denial about

Reply to  David Middleton
January 25, 2019 4:55 am

So it’s OKAY for me to concoct a novel set 275 years ahead of now, in which Earth has gone into another LIA and people have left for warmer planets, right? Good, because I’m forging ahead with it.

Reply to  Nicholas William Tesdorf
January 24, 2019 4:05 pm

Cue Monty Python.

Chris Hanley
Reply to  Nicholas William Tesdorf
January 24, 2019 4:18 pm

The thought makes me go hot n’ cold all over

Louis Hooffstetter
Reply to  Nicholas William Tesdorf
January 24, 2019 6:50 pm

Back To The Future!

Robert of Texas
January 24, 2019 3:19 pm

“The Little Ice Age was a bona fide climate crisis… Famines, cannibalism, Frankenstein, Dickens, glaciers bulldozing villages”

I am shocked and horrified that you are so insensitive to a fine model-scientist like Dr. Frankenstein. He was the first to have to deal with the notion of a self-identity crisis when he brought back to life a body made piecemeal of dead flesh and it had trouble deciding what exactly it was. The fact that the intolerant mostly white-male (likely conservative) peasants tormented the poor creature just proves how barbaric Western Society really is.

I have to agree with “Dickens”, he was and remains a calamity for many modern high-school students.

It is interesting that AMITAV GHOSH, like many others, seem to think that the temperature around 1900 was the perfect setting and any deviation is a disaster. It’s much more likely that a warmer climate is better for humans overall. These people seem to be anti-change; as in “any change must be bad because it scares me”. So it isn’t just that any change man causes is bad, but any change at all.

Tom Halla
Reply to  Robert of Texas
January 24, 2019 3:35 pm

Certainly. The LIA was a series of disasters, but the alarmists seem to believe that any warming from that period will be a BAD THING. Who cares that it is not quite as warm yet as the Medieval Warm Period?

michael hart
Reply to  Robert of Texas
January 24, 2019 4:03 pm

I recall that when I was a child it was not uncommon for an adult to use a phrase such as “What the Dickens is that”. Thank you. I’m glad of the reminder about how our language evolves.

Today, the answer to that question might be “Why, that is a general circulation model of the climate. Its results mean that we must all return to living a Dickensian lifestyle in order to save the planet.”

Reply to  michael hart
January 24, 2019 5:14 pm

What percent of Europe’s population died or emigrated during the LIA. I recall reading that it could have been a third or more.

David Chappell
Reply to  Mohatdebos
January 24, 2019 8:10 pm

Quite a lot of the deaths in the period were caused by those major climate forcings, the Black Death and plague.

Reply to  David Chappell
January 24, 2019 8:57 pm

When almost a third of the population of Europe died from the Bubonic Plague, the average wealth per person increased through inheritance and/or discounted estate sales.

Reply to  David Chappell
January 25, 2019 12:59 am

Wages also improved as Europe’s population was decreased by a third, agricultural workers were as scarce as hens teeth.

Reply to  David Chappell
January 25, 2019 9:53 am

I thought rural areas didn’t suffer from the Plague as much as city dwellers did.

Craig from Oz
Reply to  michael hart
January 24, 2019 6:04 pm

Merry Wives of Windsor, Act III Sc II. Ln 12

Dickens the phrase predated Dickens the Charles by a long time.

Mind you sending some of our Culturally Elite back to the Charles Dickens era might be worth the effort. If nothing else they might finally understand what real carbon pollution looks like and stop having panic attacks over colourless gases.

Also they could go visit the Sahara back in its pre-greening prime. We need to be careful with that, or children of tomorrow will have no idea what a desert is.

Reply to  Craig from Oz
January 24, 2019 9:03 pm

I always thought that “Dickens” was another name for the Devil.

John Endicott
Reply to  noaaprogrammer
January 25, 2019 7:27 am

Indeed, it was a 16th century euphemism for the term devil (derived from “Devilkin”). Shakespeare used the term in his play (written in 1601) “The Merry Wives of Windsor” as Craig from Oz pointed out, so it does indeed pre-date old Charles a bit.

Reply to  Robert of Texas
January 24, 2019 5:58 pm

As a young man I used to enjoy dickins; but haven’t been to one in years (:-))

Reply to  Robert of Texas
January 25, 2019 10:39 am

“These people seem to be anti-change; as in “any change must be bad because it scares me”. So it isn’t just that any change man causes is bad, but any change at all.”

I’m not so sure.
They are screaming that we all need to do what we can to destroy the free market and capitalism, so they clearly do not mind certain changes.
I think rather they somehow think that since climate change is man-made, and nature is inherently good and preferable to mankind, it follows that ANY changes we make to ANY part of the biosphere is evil and must be halted.

They have no problem killing people, and ruining the efforts of the developing nations to crawl out of the muck and mire of abject poverty, so long as their friends know they drink Free Trade coffee while wearing hemp cargo pants that have been washed in hand-dipped, Himalayan salt soap.


January 24, 2019 3:21 pm

It’s never been clear to me why so many people seem to be so concerned about the fate of those who will live hundreds of years from now when they show absolutely no concern for their fellow human beings who are suffering in the here and now. For example, why is the same concern not shown for the innocent refugees in Syria? What about the plight of Africans who are forced to use dung and other hazardous materials to cook their food? Alarmists should let the future take care of itself. If they want to do good, there are ample opportunities for showing their concern for mankind right now. Let the future take care of itself.

R Shearer
Reply to  Trebla
January 24, 2019 5:27 pm

Good comment. I could envision leftists creating “Planned Stewardship” in which they practice genocide to protect future generations.

Reply to  R Shearer
January 26, 2019 4:30 am

No that different to the Chinese Great Leap Forward then?
Was that what Obama meant by ‘Forward’ as one of his election slogans?

January 24, 2019 3:29 pm

David will appreciate the irony that we have to have a couple of heat waves in Australia [not unusual in Australia] to overload our few remaining coal power stations to make people realise we need more coal to combat any warming anyway , let alone power us through our mild winters.

David Dibbell
Reply to  angech
January 24, 2019 4:23 pm

I appreciate the irony in the end of the bronze age. It was warmer than it is now too.

Reply to  David Dibbell
January 25, 2019 1:13 am

David Dibbell
January 24, 2019 at 4:23 pm

Surely the irony was most obvious towards the end of the Iron Age, not the Bronze Age?

Chris Hanley
Reply to  angech
January 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Yesterday the spot price of electricity in Victoria hit A$14,500/MWh during the evening peak.

Craig from Oz
Reply to  angech
January 24, 2019 6:14 pm

Heat Wave?

Back when I Was a Boy we had heat waves that actually lasted for days.

This current one you could have literally slept through. Yes yesterday here in Sunny Adelaide was 47C, but at lunch time today the temp is 26C and seems to be dropping.

(Average daily max for Adelaide in Jan is 29C)

It has gone from OMG! END OF THE WORLD to ‘where’s my summer’ in under 24 hours and the only thing we really have to show for it is electricity prices that peaked about something like $14,000 MWh.

Thank you Jay Weatherill. Thank you Elon Musk. Your ‘help’ in making SA Great will not be forgotten. Or forgiven.

Bryan A
Reply to  Craig from Oz
January 25, 2019 12:23 am

Isn’t that like $14 per KWh

John Endicott
Reply to  Craig from Oz
January 25, 2019 7:32 am

Back when I was a boy we’d have heat waves while walking fifteen miles to school barefoot, in the snow, up hill, both ways. or something. 😉

Reply to  angech
January 25, 2019 4:17 pm

Australia is now my example of hypocrisy. Extreme angst over catastrophic climate change while profiting on the export of coal to fuel China’s power plants.

If the rise atmospheric CO2 is disasterous, stop selling the coal.

January 24, 2019 3:46 pm

LOL…..what’s up is down

David…I saw this in a post a while back and can’t find it now….I’m pretty sure it was one of your posts

How much global warming is the USA responsible for? degrees?

…if I remember right, it was in the 10th’s of a degree range


Reply to  Latitude
January 24, 2019 4:03 pm


The precision and statistical significance of any such “measurements” are highly questionable. Too many exogenous variables.

Walter Horsting
January 24, 2019 4:00 pm

Millions died by crop loss famine. In the 1680s 25% of all Scots died by crop loss famine.

lyn roberts
Reply to  Walter Horsting
January 24, 2019 4:39 pm

And what was the major crop of Scotland in the 1680’s mainly oats, as they grow in much colder conditions than say wheat which is our major crop today.
I really fear for even our ability to survive a really cold series of seasons, let alone a season where no rain arrives.
This last year even in queensland and NSW Australia, I believe the crop failure is extremely high, due to the drought conditions, that have not to date been relieved by seasonal rains, if we do not get rain soon, as in the next 8 weeks or so, we are back into our dry season again, without rain.
Our bread price has risen by about 30% just in the last couple of weeks.

Reply to  Walter Horsting
January 26, 2019 1:09 pm

Don’t forget the Hungry Forties (1840s)!

January 24, 2019 4:02 pm

The Precautionary Principle is 180 degrees ass backwards. It is almost always sudden cooling from short lived high VEI Index volcanoes back to back in clusters that cause so much damage to civilizations. From the dark ages circa 542 AD – 548 AD to 1812-1815 with multiple eruptions that cause 2-3 year significant temporary cooling of 1-2 degree C. Just temporary cooling enough to seriously mess with a growing season and harvest for a year or two. It has happened so many times before in human history that we should understand this by now.

Little do the alarmists care that the smidgeon of warming humans may have caused, along with a majority of natural variation favouring a warmer climate, is the ‘insurance policy’ the good Earth needs to survive some short lived calamity. Nothing that CAGW global warming issues with SLR or a maybe hotter future climate come close to the near instantaneous collapse of tempature for 1-2 growing seasons in the northern hemisphere and the mayhem and destruction that would cause if we can’t fully feed 7.4 Billion people for a year or two. The parable of Joseph’s dream of 7 fat cows – 7 lean cows has never been more applicable than today’s world where we expect everything to work as well as last year. Any deviation from near perfection, which is what today’s climate really is, and there will be significant challenges to overcome. This is hard wired into our subconscious from eons of human climate adaptation, which is probably why the world suffers today from CDS (Climate Derangement Syndrome).

January 24, 2019 4:04 pm

From the linked paper:
“Climate-related conflicts and displacements are already changing the political complexion of many of the world’s most important countries, most notably in Europe.”
Religious lunacy and authoritarian dictatorships in the middle east are climate related conflicts?
(or do they confuse “Arab Spring” with climate change)
How can this be since religious lunacy has been driving conflicts in the middle east long before climate was even understood?
IMHO the only climate related conflicts currently ongoing in Europe are those between the “Yellow Vests” and governmental imposed climate lunacy.

January 24, 2019 4:06 pm

There is no AGW and the downward temperature trend which began in year 2016 will be continuing as we move forward in time.

Overall oceanic sea surface temperatures I expect to show a down trend sooner rather then later, from being presently neutral.

The much talked about so certain El Nino seems to be not happening which I always thought would be the case.

January 24, 2019 4:10 pm

“Today, the subject has also become an important concern in the humanities and arts.” I thought this was about rock solid science being performed by highly trained specialists.

Then again didn’t the former chief of the IPCC write a racy fantasy novel while he was out saving the world. Based on the charges against him that great work of literature was more like a game plan.

Our best hope. The opposition.

John F. Hultquist
January 24, 2019 4:24 pm

Over the last couple of decades, as the impact of global warming has intensified, . . .

When the writer starts with such trash, can we expect what follows to get better?
Not a chance.

January 24, 2019 4:43 pm

“Okay… Increased seismic activity caused cooling?”

Maybe he meant volcanic activity

Stephen Skinner
January 24, 2019 5:08 pm

looking at the ‘Holocene Climate Reconstruction’ it definitely looks like we are on our way towards glacial maximum which will be between 60,000 to 100,000 years away and the journey downwards will be erratic and not obvious. Either way these are time scales that far exceed human lifetimes and it is difficult to see what is happening using a few tens of years of data.

tsk tsk
January 24, 2019 5:12 pm

In his first major book of nonfiction since In an Antique Land, Ghosh examines our inability—at the level of literature, history, and politics—to grasp…

Well, failing to grasp seems to be something of a core competency of his.

Bill In Oz
January 24, 2019 5:39 pm

I went & read the article by Ghosh. At one point he writes :
“Fossil fuels are much more than mere sources of energy; they have also engendered a wide array of cultural and social practices. Fossil fuel use has shaped the physical, cultural, and imaginative landscapes of the United States, Canada, and Australia to such a degree that significant sections of their populations remain psychologically and politically resistant to recognizing changing environmental realities.”

Notice how he misses out ‘ECONOMIC’ in that list..How he completely fails to mention prosperity has come from using fossil fuels in countries like the USA, Canada, Australia, China. Japan and South Korea India etc etc etc.

In other words this bloke is a dope. A blinded ideological idiot.

The real important question is why did FOREIGN AFFAIRS magazine ever publish such hog wash ?

Michael Keal
Reply to  Bill In Oz
January 26, 2019 3:26 pm

Bill I’m not convinced that leaving out ‘economic’ was an accident. Perhaps one man’s (err mann’s) hogwash is another’s propaganda.

Steven Mosher
January 24, 2019 5:52 pm

“The Little Ice Age was a bona fide climate crisis… Famines, cannibalism, Frankenstein, Dickens, glaciers bulldozing villages…
The Little Ice Age was really bad. It was the coldest climatic phase of the Holocene…

wait a minute.

we are talking about 1 measely degree cooler.

didnt you guys read bob tisdale?
or sheldon?

1 degree is not even perceptible to humans
1 degree? even 2 degrees. look at the difference between flordia and minnesota.. way more than 1 degree

1 degree? look at the difference between day and night!

You see here is where skeptics need to get their act together.

Tell them we might get 1 degree warmer and they come up with a bunch of silly arguments.

1. Average temperature doesnt exist
2. We dont have accurate thermometers
3. We dont have them in enough places
4. Folks are reporting the wrong precision
5. folks are using TAVG ( min+max / 2) and not integrating every hour of the day
6. 1 degree is not bad and you cant even feel it.
7. Day and night differs by more than that.
8. location X and location Y differ by more.
9 The increase in X ( wars, floods, extinctions) is not tied to warming

etc etc etc

But THEN when they refer to the LIA all of those Types of arguments go out the window.
When they talk about 1 C of cooling… why all that skepticism flies out the window.
1C of cooling… really bad.. heres the proof. some guy painted a picture of winter.

Suddenly all those doubts about global averages, accuracy, spatial sampling, precision,
perceptibility, and causal links with disasters… POOF they all go away.

In fact, seeing this difference in epistemic concerns is one of the first things I saw in the debate.

Show people a Hockey stick and they want to see the data and methods.
Show those same people a hand drawn unlabeled chart by Lamb that shows an LIA
and their inquisitiveness vanishes.


1 c of warming? cant even feel it.
1 c of cooling? OMG disaster.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 24, 2019 6:02 pm

warm is good….cold is bad

John Endicott
Reply to  Latitude
January 25, 2019 8:28 am

Indeed. Putting aside the conveniences of modern technology, if give a choice between living in the climate as it was at the heart of the LIA (about 1 degree colder per Mosh) or living in todays climate most people would wisely choose today’s climate. And if given a choice between todays climate and one that is a mere degree warmer, again, I suspect the most informed people would choose the later. the choice between colder and warmer generally favors warmer. Humanity prospers during the warmer periods of history, not so much in the colder periods.

Bryan A
Reply to  John Endicott
January 25, 2019 11:24 am

1C colder has a far greater negative effect on planting dates and length of growing seasons than the positive effect from 1C of warming. 1C warmer allows for earlier planting, longer growing and greater harvest mass allowing for the capability of feeding far more people. 1C of cooling leads to famines from reduction of the growing season and frozen soil leading to later planting, shorter growing seasons and sparse harvests.

Reply to  Bryan A
January 25, 2019 5:01 pm

Farmers in South Florida get more that one crop per year out of the same field…
…because it a lot more than one degree warmer

Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 24, 2019 7:47 pm

The great and powerful Mosher sure does get petulant when he gets embarrassed.

Once again, despite complaining about it just a few minutes ago, he once again has to misrepresent the arguments of others in order to continue justifying his unearned income.

While there are people who have said the things you list, trying to claim them as the arguments of all skeptics is highly dishonest. But par for the course from you.

Joel Snider
Reply to  MarkW
January 25, 2019 9:50 am

I like the way he equates being teased about unicorns as equal and opposite to being uniformly declared murderers, perpetrators (and of course ‘deniers’) of genocide, racketeers, with accusations of treason, and demands for Nuremberg trials.
Imagine the meltdown if he had to walk in Anthony Watts shoes for one day.

Flavio Capelli
Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 24, 2019 8:17 pm

Canadian wheat farmers, and also those in the northern United States, have to routinely use glyphosate to accelerate ripening of wheat before the weather deteriorates late in the season.

It seems to me a bit of cooling in those regions would have a serious negative impact, while a bit of warming would be beneficial (and possibly avoid the use of glyphosate). Now there can be other threshold situations where a a slight warming may be detrimental, but what is the net balance?

The cool weather of norther temperate regions is offset with the use of agrochemicals and adequate practices; could the same be done also for areas where warming is detrimental?

Reply to  Flavio Capelli
January 24, 2019 9:05 pm

“Now there can be other threshold situations where a a slight warming may be detrimental, but what is the net balance?”

Yes indeed, what is the net balance between a colder or warmer world. It should be obvious to anyone that between a choice of the two, warmer is always better than colder, but to have moderate perfection like we now have is ideal but then how long can that condition last until something out of left field causes serious cooling? The universe is big and cold and is the natural state of things except for stars and close proximity to them.

The Earth is shedding as much heat as it is receiving, and it is clear from the long term history of the tempature record that we have been seriously cooling the last 100 million years, and CO2 levels are now going down to near extinction levels every glacial advance. Our medium long term future is serious global cooling with the next advance of the glacial cycle, and any warming we can muster now perhaps delays the inevitable for a generation or two. Maybe…

Fundamentally, I think it is significantly balanced in favor of a warmer world, since the planet then has a bit of thermal inertia to overcome any cooling crisis as per my comment above. We know that civilizations have opportunity to thrive every time there is warming climate, and they do. We should be celebrating the optimum climate we currently have since we never would have arrived at our current population or technical advancement without the warming and usesge of fossil fuels.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 25, 2019 12:45 am

But Steven are you not assuming a symmetry of thermal effects , ie 1degree warmer has the same influence on physical well being and resources as 1 degree colder . However this is not necessarily so. You recall no doubt the paper in Lancet about 2 years ago (quite often quoted here) which claimed that moderate cold produces far greater mortality that moderate heat. When I was researching the Norse in Greenland for a talk at our local history club it was remarkable how an accumulating fall in summer temperature of less than 1 degree could change a largely pastoral society to one which had to obtain 80% of its nutrition from the sea. In the end of course they gave up , long before the LIA minimum.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 25, 2019 3:28 am

So basically Climate-Change, in either direction, is a terrible spectator-sport for humans.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 25, 2019 7:18 am
“The study — published in the British journal The Lancet — analyzed data on more than 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. Of those, 5.4 million deaths were related to cold, while 311,000 were related to heat.”

moderate cooling wreaks far more havoc on humans than moderate warming. I fail to see an inconsistency, although I can understand the “optics” of it from your perspective. It just so happens on this matter, your perspective is extremely out of focus.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 25, 2019 8:03 am

Mosh, I didn’t know that episode was about you!
it is so much funnier now


Anthony Banton
Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 25, 2019 12:12 pm

LOL, Steven
A cut to the quick, that accurately sums up certain denizens lack of, err, consistency, in their arguments.

May I add that the LIA wasn’t an “Ice Age” – it was a period that included some colder weather.
In England FI, the winter of 1683/4 is the coldest in the CET record.
However that of 1685/6 is the 6th warmest.
Yes indeed.
Imagine that.
An ice age, even a ‘little’ one should not allow that.
That is of course if you wish to believe the ‘thermometers’ from that time.
Or perhaps just the ones in 1883/84.
No, second thoughts – 1685/6 as that would’prove that current temps aren’t anything special.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 25, 2019 4:30 pm

One degree of cooling being a tipping point for crops does not imply that one degree of warming would be as well. That is a logical failure on your part.

There is no place on earth with a climate too warm to grow crops. Not true concerning too cold.

Michael Keal
Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 26, 2019 3:33 pm

Mr. Mosh, when one considers that a big chunk of the Earth’s surface area, the tropics, will hardly change it’s average temperature at all, the 1 degree translates into a larger temperature change in colder areas. This is especially important where the temperature is close to freezing.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Steven Mosher
January 29, 2019 12:09 pm

When the length of the growing season is marginal, a degree of cooling can cause the first killing frost to come earlier, thus killing the crop, and the last killing frost to come later, thus killing the recently planted crops. Warming reduces the chances of that happening, and may even allow for double cropping.

You misrepresent the impetus behind most of the items in your list. The point being made is that there are numerous problems with sampling temperatures. Therefore, the claims about future Tipping Points, killing heat waves, and several degrees of future warming suppressing crop yields are not supported by the necessary accuracy and precision to warrant such forecasts. Whereas, the problems of the LIA are a matter of history, not forecasting with data of questionable veracity.

HD Hoese
January 24, 2019 6:29 pm

I just finished reading Brian Fagan’s The Little Ice Age, How Climate made History 1300-1850. 2000. Lamb, Climate History in the Modern World, Climate authority for past, Hansen (praised book on cover) for present and future. Ruined an apparently very good book with final chapter, and scattered admonishments. Black Carbon problems started around 1850. Wonder how the reviews went.

From Chapter 12, A Warmer Greenhouse, with usual blame, and bad stuff naturally happened rapidly in centuries past so we will “…shortly have the scientific data that document the full extent of the danger…… will require a new altruism and a desire to work for the global rather than national good. ” Another expert on the future, but he mentions Dickens growing up in the coldest decade (1810-20) since 1690s .

The Ice Is Coming
January 24, 2019 6:44 pm

Multiple lines of evidence suggest that neoglaciation (the coming next Ice Age stadial) has been ongoing since the Holocene Climatic Optimum (~9,000 BP). The Little Ice Age was not an anomaly; the present warming is.

Ice Age denialists fail to recognize the dire conditions that will ensue when current human-induced warming is impeded. Those who obstruct AGW will leave a legacy of doom and disaster to all life on Planet Earth.

Any reduction in anthropogenic CO2 production such as diminished fossil fuel use will result in mass extinctions planet-wide as well as the collapse of human civilization. Beware “wind turbines of death” and other such follies. Peril impends. Get woke, cold-istas. Your wishes must never come true.

Warmer is Better — Fight the Ice

PS: I am not being sarcastic. I mean every word. Deal with that!

Zig Zag Wanderer
January 24, 2019 6:46 pm

“The Great Derangement”

Such an unintentionally appropriate title!

January 24, 2019 11:54 pm

The Little Ice Age (LIA) (1280~1850) follows closely the 4 Grand Solar Minima (GSM) events: Wolf GSM (1280~1350), Sporer GSM (1400~1500), Maunder GSM (1645~1715) and Dalton GSM (1780~1820).

During these GSMs, earth’s climate was devastatingly cold. For example, during the Wolf GSM, roughly 25% of Europe’s population died from: exposure, short growing seasons, livestock freezing to death, famine, droughts, below average harvests, glacier advances wiping out entire villages, massive avalanches, massive hail storms, commercial waterways frozen solid, roads snowblocked, etc. Then the Black Death wiped out 50% of the remaining weakened European population from 1352~54…

It’ll be interesting see what happens during the next Grand Solar Minimum, which is projected to start next year, and could last for the 50 years.

It’ll also be extremely interesting to see what happens when the PDO/AMO/NAO are all in, or near their respective 30-year cool cycles within the next few years.

Since 1850, every time the PDO was in a 30-year cool cycle, global temps have fallen, and have risen during 30-year PDO warm cycles.

I predict that within the next 5 years, the cooling effects of the 30-year ocean cool cycles and a GSM event will be significant, and the growing disparity between CAGW climate model projections vs. reality will become even more laughable than it already is.

AOC says the earth only has 12 more years before being destroyed by Global Warming..

Yeah, right…

Rod Evans
Reply to  SAMURAI
January 25, 2019 1:25 am

Actually, I think it was a misprint.
What they actually said was ” The earth only has 12 more years before it is destroyed by Global Warmists”
Now that is a version I fully concur with.

E J Zuiderwijk
January 25, 2019 1:53 am

It is not me who is deranged, but I suspect Mr Ghosh is.

January 25, 2019 5:28 am

Joe Bastardi:
“Who or What Is to Blame for Coldmageddon?”

Tom Abbott
Reply to  rah
January 25, 2019 6:31 am

Thanks for that link, rah.

Here’s a quote from it: “Bottom line: This winter is starting to hit its stride, and we believe the overall cold, stormy pattern lasts well into March in both the U.S. and Europe.”

I sure hate to hear that! We need to start buring more coal! It’s too cold already!

Joe also said he was a little worried about U.S. electrical supplies because of the cold weather.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 25, 2019 9:23 am

And more worried about Europe’s. Justifiably so. Australia, in the midst of a heat wave is also on the brink because of their whole hog investment in “renewables” while closing coal fired plants.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 25, 2019 9:43 am

From Paul Homewood’s site in Britain:

From Jo Nova’s site in Australia:

If they continue down their current paths both will end up having a third world grade grid.

January 25, 2019 6:56 am

I an areas where normal practice is an combination of ‘find the lady ‘ and ‘heads you lose tails I win ‘ this is of course just standard stuff .
That this should be the reality tell us a great deal about the area and why its a very long way from a ‘science ‘

Tom Schaefer
January 25, 2019 7:26 am

Seasteading will offer some resilience to climate change, in either direction, at some point in the not too distant future. I’m optimistic for our clever species.

January 25, 2019 10:14 am

“Those who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it.” – Edmund Burke

I offer an extension to that. “Those who only study the last hundred years are likely to miss the bigger picture.”

January 25, 2019 10:52 am

So he admits that the LIA was a climatic shift.

Which is to say, it was a cooling from previous temperatures.

Thus, it must be obvious that the current warming is nothing more than a return to the more benign climate that preceded the LIA.

How can he think that is anything but a good outcome?

Gordon Dressler
January 27, 2019 8:42 pm

In one simple paragraph, Amitav Ghosh has shown us the solution to the “problem” of global warming:
“During part of the Little Ice Age, decreased solar irradiance and increased seismic activity resulted in temperatures that, as Geoffrey Parker writes in Global Crisis, a groundbreaking global history of the period, were ‘more than 1 [degree Celsius] cooler than those of the later twentieth century’.”

So, we should immediately embark on two crash priority programs: (1) to place a large umbrella into space at a constant relative spot that partially shades Earth from Sun radiation, and (2) to inject millions of tons of SuperGlue along Earth’s tectonic plate boundaries.

Now why didn’t I think of that?

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