Reposted from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog
Thursday, January 3, 2019
Forget El Nino, StormFest is about to Hit the West Coast
Things often calm down after January 1 during El Nino years….but not this year…with the U.S. West Coast from central California to Washington State about to be pummeled by a series of storms. Rain, snow, wind? Plenty for everyone.
A view of the latest infrared satellite imagery shows an amazing line-up of one storm after another stretching way into the Pacific. A traffic jam of storms.
Let’s examine our stormy future, using a series of sea level pressure forecasts from the UW WRF weather forecast models (solid lines are sea level pressure, shading in lower atmosphere temperature).
At 10 PM today, a strong low is just off the northern tip of Vancouver Island.
10AM Saturday brings an energetic low center into northern CA.
10 PM Sunday? Another storm hits central Oregon! And another system is in the wings.
That storm is right off our coast late Wednesday.
El Nino late winters generally have less action—not so this year!
What about precipitation you ask? Do you really want to know? The accumulated total through 4 AM next Thursday is impressive, with 5-10 inches over many mountain areas and even 10-20 inches over parts of northern CA, the Olympics and southern BC.
Snow? There will be abundant amounts. For example, here is the accumulated snowfall for the 72 hours ending 4 PM Wednesday. 2-3 feet for the high terrain from the central Sierra Nevada to southern BC. Our winter ski season is secure.
Wind? You bet. Each of these storms will bring strong, damaging winds to a favored area of the coastal zone and mountain peaks.
There is a silver lining of all this action of course: it will provide an immense amount of water to fill our reservoirs and enhance our snowpack, a snowpack that is now in pretty decent shape (see latest summary below). Water resources should be fine next summer.
But all these facts on the ground and favorable forecasts don’t stop some of Seattle’s wacky local media from talking about drought for our region, with the Seattle Stranger being one of the worst (see below). Facts should matter—apparently not at the Stranger.
HT/DavidB
The wet coast. Land of perpei pseudo drough. And fires…started by those who profit from them. And millions of voters that are dead…or simply do not exist. It’s an amazing place to ponder.
I frequently travel …by gas guzzling motor tweaked Tahoe… across the vast open spaces. Taking pictures of the same awe inspired views. Seems the drier it gets, the more low areas seem to over flow in the spring melt. I’ve been making these treks since the early 1970s. Some years are drier. But recently, small lakes fill over the top of docks. Ducks swim in ponds once nothing but dust.
I think Joe Bastardi makes a great point; Super el Nino’s pump lots of moisture into the atmosphere, which resulted in warmer temps and more rain and snow. One of my ranches had a fire…started along the road. Like the other fires, started near a road or those evil power lines. Those power lines….
And the wife comes home from a “meeting” where a state EMS individual claims the fires will be even worse in 2019…with a wink…and “there is money to be made…”
AND when I was doing a lot of flying, a pilot friend flew lead for drop tankers. He reported to me they were sitting tight waiting for the fire (in CA) to expand so to milk the event. That was the 25 years ago. So I watch and observe the goings on.
Could write a book. But….I don’t particularly like concrete boots.
You are on to the game mate. Agree 100%
This is not an El Nino year. It is forecast by NOAA to be a modest one, but there isnt enough warm water to make it. Ive been saying for a year or more that with the cold blobs, climate was going to decouple somewhat from ENSO and that is what we are seeing in this “unexpected” La Nina type weather. Note also the cold water over the GBR. We havent been hearing the whingeing about the imminent extinction of the reef lately. I think there could develop a concern in Australia about the cold water recalling the bleaching and dying of the Florida reefs during a cold spell a decade ago.
I live just a bit south of Seattle. Saturday night we had winds blowing 10 to 30 mph, with sustained gust of +50 mph. Tall, tall trees, high winds, and power lines on poles make for regular power outages. This happens 2 – 3 each winter. The power went out at 1:00 am as the wind gusts accelerated. Sleep was unachievable, with the high wind noise and fir cones and broken bits of branches bumping the house. The winds started abating about 4:00 am, so I stoked the wood stove and went back to bed. Grid power came back up at about 7:00 pm this (Sunday) evening.
This stuff happens. It’s all natural. It is just common sense to have a back up generator, a wood stove and a supply of dry wood, fresh batteries and flash lights, and a sizable reserve of candles if only for the ambience!
An oldie but still relevant….
Seems it never rains in southern California
Seems I’ve often heard that kind of talk before
It never rains in California, but girl, don’t they warn ya?
It pours, man, it pours…
“California has worn me quite thin, I just can’t wait to see you again,
Come Monday …”
https://youtu.be/e0—Q97pG4
Speaking of oldies. Yes, CA has worn me quite thin …
Snowfall so far in Sierra this winter is not plentiful. A low snow winter in Mammoth is 300 inches, a high snow winter 500+ inches, so far 2018/19 is 97 inches, so well on target for a low precipitation winter.
A good storm cycle in the Sierra is 40 inches, a reservoir-topping one 100 inches.
Get back to me when these great storms recharge all the reservoirs…..
Alternatively, think about whether 2019 will be another summer when water supplies and drought are an issue…
Good thing YOU aren’t using any fossil fuels in your life. And IF you were a 4th generation Californian as I am … you’d know that MOST of CA’s precipitation is dropped AFTER Jan. 1. Rarely, if ever, does the Sierra get massive snowfalls prior to Jan. 1. So sit tight, stack up your carbon sticks to burn … and watch what happens when “the storm doors open” in the Pacific. Same as it ever was … same as it ever was …
And rest assured that Jerry’s “never-ending CA drought” will eventually return … all as part of the entirely NATURAL cycles that make up CA’s climate. Same as it ever was, same as it EVER was.
Oroville has had about 12″ so far since the fall, about the same as last year so far (although a late start hence the Camp Fire).
Apologies for my ignorance but looking at the latest anomalies for the El Nino it seems to be struggle to gain any traction. Is there anyone who can point to some places I can read up to see if what the likely consequences of this would be?
Apologies for my ignorance but looking at the latest anomalies for the El Nino it seems to be struggle to gain any traction. Is there anyone who can point to some places I can read up to see if what the likely consequences of this would be?
The entire “CO2 Climate Change” fiasco is due to the Arrogant, Inept Solar physicists. For the last 100 years, they have been saying that the Solar Output is constant. And yet, we can see the “11 years” solar cycle showing that the solar output varies. They made some ridiculous assumptions about how the Fusion process operates, without any verifiable experimental/actual data.
It is just in the last 5 years that an interior solar model [verifiable] that can explain the “Sunspots” has emerged. Bottom line, Solar output is going down. How long will it last? You can see the latest “Solar physicists guesses” by looking at the “Solar cycle” predictions.
Unfortunately, these clowns are the ones that we get our data from. They orbited a “black body absorb-er” that needs to be replaced, since it doesn’t work correctly. Ultra high energy data is “essentially ignored”. The next version is going to fix this “problem”.
Now, we have warm oceans, and the “predicted” El Nino is not going to happen. It takes an increase in Solar Energy to cause the El Nino [ocean temperature “lags” put this out-of-sequence with direct Solar energy measurements]. No El Nino, but a giant La Nina is coming due to reduced Solar energy as indicated by the Solar cycle.
X is exactly what one would expect if man-made catastrophic global warming were true.
With “X” being whatever weather event has been in the news lately.
You are comparing apples (solar irradiance) vs. oranges (solar magnetic activity).
Solar radiant output, due to the internal thermonuclear process, _is_ virtually constant,varies by only 0.1%, even over 11-year magnetic cycles.
Solar _magnetic_ activity (sunspots and such) does vary considerably over 11-year cycles. This activity has a significant effect on the Earth’s ionosphere and radio propagation. But no compelling evidence of this 11-year “signal” is seen in climate or weather data. Just a lot of hand waving and conjectures.
The solar wind and EUV irradiance also vary. See Solar Dynamics Observatory: The ‘Variable Sun’ Mission.
Solar wind modulates galactic cosmic rays inversely with a distinct 11-year signal. EUV irradiance happens to be the exact mechanism which ionizes and modulates the ionosphere with a distinct 11-year propagation cycle, which faithfully mirrors the solar magnetic cycles.
But there is no compelling evidence of this 11-year signal in the troposphere, where climate and weather occur. It most likely exists, on a very small scale, but is very faint, and undetectable against the greater”noise” signal of natural variability.