- Polar vortex is an atmospheric circulation pattern that sits high above the poles
- Warm air moving into the Arctic can cause it to weaken and split into vortices
- These can bring colder temperatures and extreme weather to mid-latitudes
- Experts say split at the end of this month could cause severe weather in US
- The effects would likely come later in January and early February, experts say
By Cheyenne Macdonald For Dailymail.com
Published: 13:34 EST, 28 December 2018 | Updated: 14:25 EST, 28 December 2018
The Eastern United States could be in for a blast of frigid weather.
Activity in an Arctic climate pattern could send the polar vortex barreling towards more southern latitudes to envelop parts of North America, Europe, and Asia.
The phenomenon has led to extreme winter weather in recent years, including record low temperatures in the US back in 2014 and last year’s ‘Beast from the East’ in the UK.
While there’s still time for things to change, the models currently suggest a split in the high-altitude polar vortex will ring in the New Year, creating the potential for ‘more severe winter weather’ in the Eastern US in the weeks to follow.
The Eastern US could be in for a blast of frigid weather. Activity in an Arctic climate pattern could send the polar vortex barreling towards more southern latitudes to envelop parts of North America, Europe, and Asia. The illustration shows how a polar vortex reaches the US
The latest predictions come from Dr Judah Cohen, of Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), and are supported by models from several other researchers shared in the last few weeks.
The polar vortex is an atmospheric circulation pattern that sits high above the poles, in a layer of the atmosphere called the stratosphere.
This structure can weaken as a result of abnormal warming in the poles, causing it to split off into smaller ‘sister vortices’ that may travel outside of their typical range.
As of the end of December, the models show the polar vortex situated above Scandanavia could break apart to become two or even three vortices, bringing colder weather to the mid-latitudes and warmer weather in the Arctic.
According to Cohen, ‘a stratospheric PV displacement or split is looking more and more likely during the last week of December and into the first week of January.’
As of the end of December, the models show the polar vortex situated above Scandanavia could break apart to become two or even three vortices, bringing colder weather to the mid-latitudes and warmer weather in the Arctic
Video playing bottom right…
Click here to expand to full page
The split higher up in the atmosphere could eventually cause a similar phenomenon to ‘drip’ down to the troposphere – the layer of the atmosphere closest to the surface, where most of our weather takes place.
This process generally takes about two weeks, Cohen explains in a blog post published this week.
A split in the polar vortex can give rise to both sudden and delayed effects, much of which involves declining temperatures and extreme winter weather in the Eastern US along with Northern and Western Europe.
‘A sudden stratospheric warming usually leads to a warm Arctic not only in the stratosphere but also at the surface as well,’ Cohen explains.
‘And a warmer Arctic favors more severe winter weather in the NH midlatitudes including the Eastern US.
While there’s still time for things to change, the models currently suggest a split in the high-altitude polar vortex will ring in the New Year, creating the potential for ‘more severe winter weather’ in the Eastern US in the weeks to follow. File photo
Read the full story here.
HT/Marcus
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yes I think the stratosphere in the southern hemisphere does have SSW and there are graphs on the temperature for the southern hemisphere on the jaxa website I think it is called. I don’t know the effect it has in the southern hemisphere but in the northern hemisphere it often has an effect on the trade winds which weaken or reverse in particular across the north Atlantic and the Jetstream can be pushed to the south
South Hemisphere has single magnetic pole just of the Antarctica (towards Australia) so polar vortex (rich in charged particles) is very strong and stable, maintaining strong and stable zonal circulation .
However, in the North Hemisphere there are two magnetic poles , one just west of Hudson Bay and the other one in the central Siberia (north of lake Baikal. The biforcation of the magnetic field frequently splits polar vortex and so greatly weakening it. In contrast with the Antarctica, the NH polar vortex often is neither strong or stable (a bit like Theresa May’s government) loosing control of the polar jet-stream which then characterised by the excessive meridional circulation.
see links
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/Fcolourful.jpg
and
https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/36000/36972/npole_gmao_200901-02.mov
Nice, clear explanation of the difference between the northern polar vortex and the southern polar vortex. Thanks, vukcevic.
Note that this post refers to the stratospheric polar vortices above the poles which involve air descending from the mesosphere into the stratosphere and warming by compression as it does so. The amount of warming is influenced by the amount of ozone present because ozone directly absorbs incoming solar energy.
The circumpolar vortex in the troposphere is an entirely separate phenomenon (the ring of jet stream tracks around each pole) but because warming above the poles in the stratosphere pushes down the tropopause above the poles that pushes tropospheric air outwards towards the equator which results in wavier jet stream tracks and increased global cloudibness.
vukcevic: “In contrast with the Antarctica, the NH polar vortex often is neither strong or stable (a bit like Theresa May’s government)”
You could have given me a warning that this comment was coming, now I have to clean the coffee off of my monitor (sigh).
Happy New Year!
The Polar Vortices have nothing to do with magnetic poles.
They are merely a function of the atmosphere cooling in the Polar night.
The Cold air aloft creates the vortex via winds flowing from warmer mid latitudes and turning right due to Coriolis this forms the PJS in the trop and the Polar night-jet in the Strat. Both tend to “keep in” the coldest air.
In the NH with your back to the wind cold air lies on the left.
In the SH air turns lefts via Coriolis, so that cold air lies on the right.
Two poles of cold tend to exist in the NH because of the large land-masses of N America/Canada and Eurasia – and a permanent snowfield by mid-winter allows very cold air to persist there – Under the Siberian high especially.
Anthony,
You are referring to the circumpolar vortex in the troposphere whereas vuk is referring to the stratospheric polar vortex.
However, I do agree that it is nothing to do with magnetism per se though charged particles may be involved in the reverse sign ozone creation / destruction balance above 45km hence the solar connection.
The polar vortex extends from the tropopause at 8–11 km in altitude, to the stratopause at around 50–60 km in altitude.
During strong solar activity passenger jets avoid flying polar route, since the Earth magnetic field funnels charge particles towards magnetic poles. The charge particles strongly ionise atmospheric gasses in the vortex. Atmospheric velocity of polar vortex is well in excess of 100km/h and often 2 or 3x that.
Noting that the atmosphere of the polar vortex is ionised, basic laws of physics stipulate that movement of such gasses is under influence of the magnetic field present.
Just few days ago there was a strong aurora associated with polar coronal hole (see recent WUWT). Downward cascade of charged particles would have strongly ionised polar vortex, and this state may persist for few weeks or even a month or so.
When the charge is low the effect of earth’s field on the vortex is weak, the vortex is strong with jet stream more regular mainly restricted to high latitudes.
With high charge the vortex is pulled away by the concentration of intensity in the earth’s MF, eventually splitting it up into two distinct but much weaker entities.
as in this type of often seen image: http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/NH.gif
or movie: https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/36000/36972/npole_gmao_200901-02.mov
Electrically charged polar vortex in The Northern Hemisphere is progressively spread out and weaken by effect of split magnetic field and eventually it is itself split after number of days or couple of weeks.
There is a strong relationship between polar vortex and polar jet stream.
When the polar vortex is strong, there is a single vortex with a jet stream that is “well constrained” near the polar front. When the northern vortex weakens, it separates into two vortices above Canada and Siberia in contrast the Antarctic vortex of the Southern Hemisphere is a single low pressure zone.
When the polar vortex is strong, the mid-latitude Westerlies (winds at the surface level between 30° and 60° latitude from the west) increase in strength and are persistent. When the polar vortex is weak, high pressure zones of the mid latitudes may push poleward, moving the jet stream, and polar weather front equator-ward. The jet stream is seen to “buckle” and deviate south. This rapidly brings cold dry air into contact with the warm, moist air of the mid latitudes, resulting in a rapid and dramatic change of weather known as a “cold snap”.
Simple physics.
“Will It Be Cold This Winter? It Depends Which Farmers’ Almanac You Read: Dueling weather forecasts confound fans of longtime rivals the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac; ‘I don’t know what to believe’” By Jennifer Levitz on Dec. 27, 2018
https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-winter-be-nasty-or-nice-depends-which-farmers-almanac-you-read-11545929300
“Gail Gabel was delighted when the Old Farmer’s Almanac came out in August with its prediction for a mild winter. Ms. Gabel, a 50-year-old resident of Sidney, Ohio, sent her parents in North Carolina a photo of the almanac’s prediction of “above-normal temperatures almost everywhere” in the U.S., hoping to persuade them to visit her over the winter.
“A week later, her mother called, sounding frosty. She had read the competition—the Maine-based Farmers’ Almanac. Its forecast predicted a “teeth-chattering cold” season.”
* * *
“It is a stormy chapter in the page-turning rivalry that started in 1818 when the Farmers’ Almanac burst onto the scene and threatened the hegemony of the Dublin, N.H.-based Old Farmer’s Almanac, which began publishing in 1792.”
* * *
“The Farmers’ Almanac, which distributes 1.7 million copies and has about 1.3 million social-media followers, says it does its forecast two years ahead of its release using a secret mathematical formula applied to sunspot activity, planet positions and the moon’s effect on the Earth.
“The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which distributes 3.3 million print copies and has about 1.8 million followers on social media, makes predictions as much as 18 months out using formulas based on solar activity, astronomy cycles and historical weather conditions. Both almanacs claim about 80% accuracy rates.
“Many meteorologists put the forecasting in a category with Punxsutawney Phil, saying it is impossible to gauge snowfall and weekly conditions that far out with accuracy.”
It’s unusual for the dueling almanacs to release winter forecasts that conflict so starkly.
“Both almanacs claim about 80% accuracy rates.”
I guess that won’t be the case this year. One or the other will be wrong.
I note neither one says anything about CO2.
I predict that yes, it will be cold this winter.
For proof of this, look up definition of winter.
Where I am on the east coast of Australia, it’s been in the mid 30s(C) for about week and a half. The warmists think it’s wonderful (proof of ‘climate change’). People are at the beach, the tourists love it. Sorry to hear you guys are freezing.
I thought Christmas on the beach was normal down under. Isn’t mid 30s fairly average summer weather there, or are they saying it’s too cold and that cooler summers are exactly what you would expect “in a warming world”.
Something I’ve been trying to find out – was this meridional jet stream behaviour predicted by IPCC/models before the recent occurrence? I’ve heard that the opposite was predicted (more zonal flow due to the hotspot?). If so, then surely this warm arctic water explanation is surely post-facto rationalisation. And anyhow, wouldnt a ‘wavy’ jetstream be the cause of warm southern water entering the arctic rather than the other way around?
AGW theory proposes more zonal flows as the jets get pushed poleward. Not long ago there was a TV ‘science’ show about how human emissions were pushing the jets more poleward.
In fact, wavier jets occur more often during periods of cooling as per the LIA which was notoriously stormy.
Wavier jets involve increased global cloudiness.
Ah, thought so. . . thank you SW. .
Seasons are being displaced by up to 6 weeks.
This is an observation which the vineyards in France are familiar with.
You don’t get better than agriculture to tell you how it is.
so,- the cold comes later in Europe preceded by warmer damper longer autumn weather, the cold comes in January, with frosts lasting later, in some cases to MAY.
It is not much different in Russia, so much that the summers are/were so unpredictable,cold and wet, that the last two were called “green winter”.
This year, april -may – june had violently unstable weather with a record number of thunderstorms in France.
Then came the really hot stuff, which lasted later than what is considered “normal” to september on.
Now we have a ski season beginning, with no snow, -way too warm.
In our region 2yrs ago more than 15 000 cars were seriously damaged by tennis ball size hailstones in late spring/early summer.
They are still repairing the roofs now…
If you check your history, you will see the main wine and food trade was carried up the Loire to Paris where the Royalty was (right through the LIA period), and in Orleans itself were all the vinegar makers, who used the spoilt wine for that. (yep they had no chemicals to stop them going bad!)
I have bought wine from a cooperative in Orleans area for 20+ years.
This year they closed after more than 100yrs of business.
The production of grapes was so abysmally low because of late spring frosts for the last 5 yrs, they were going bust.
This is not hearsay, it was after a 1hr conversation with the boss of the business who was closing up.
Weather is weather, propaganda is propaganda, and most of the met services of Europe are now in the AGW lobby.
I hope they get what is coming to them if it gets real cold.
They should at least go back to what they are paid to do, give reliable weather forecasting, which they seem singularly incompetent at doing.
Having weather patterns displaced by a few weeks, with snowdrops before christmas in the UK, is nothing to do with “human induced climate change”.
I have absolutely no doubt it was the same in the medieval warm period and in Roman times, and it’s called weather!
I am not so keen on seeing the return of the 18th century Thames ice fairs returning.
I agree with the season displacement idea. My golf season used to get fully underway in April now it is mid may and sometimes later where I live.
North America’s climate (north of Rio Grande) throughout Holocene was too unstable impeding development of a notable civilization achievements of type that can be found further south.
If you do build the wall do a ‘semi-conductive’ one, i.e. blocks passage in the north and offers no resistance in the south direction, it might come useful when the ice starts moving southward from the great lakes./sarc
Happy New Year to all.
Winter will hit the Balkans hard.
Happy New Year!
For centuries down there they’ve been hitting each other hard so cold winter might be a bit of relief .
Thanks, Happy New year to you too
“Stable polar vortex”?
No such thing. Obviously an effort to emote weather for emotional impact, rather than communicate why weather occurs.
Weather is the process where atmosphere exchanges heat and water vapor. A polar vortex that fails to exchange atmosphere is not normal.
Joe Bastardi has been predicting these cold weather outbreaks since August 2018.
He has also been predicting “climate ambulance chasers” who strive to frame weather as climate alarmism.
Joe Bastardi bases his predictions on weather history, i.e. previous episodes where similar atmosphere conditions result in recognizable weather patterns. All without worshipping the CO₂ trace molecule.
Daily and weekly summaries are available at Weatherbell.
Knowing that a cold winter is approaching allowed me to stack more firewood back in short sleeve weather. Cutting and hauling cords of wood from a snow filled woods is much harder. I’ve done both and greatly prefer cutting, transporting and stacking firewood during warm weather.
According to the forecast, on January 4, the stratospheric polar vortex will be completely divided.
A very strong high will be created over Great Britain.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/01/04/0600Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-3.61,49.93,760/loc=-8.373,55.205
Before the advent of climate $cience, they were called “Alberta clippers” and they were considered a normal part of winter.
Now the name is stratospheric intrusions.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/
Cold, Artic air coming south in winter? SCARY!
Wait . . . what . . . it happens every year?
Never mind.
This involves an area of study that I have been investigating for the past 12 years with relevant posts on a number of sites.
Essentially, the amount of ozone above 45km height and over the poles is subject to solar variability with an opposite sign to that observed below 45km and over the equator. Current climatology assumes the same sign in all locations but recent observations show otherwise.
The consequence is sizeable solar induced changes in the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles which determines the waviness of jet stream tracks, the amount of global cloudiness, the proportion of solar energy able to enter the oceans and ultimately net global warming or cooling.
Stratospheric warming events occur all the time but are less prevalent when the sun is active and more prevalent when the sun is less active.
More detail here:
https://www.newclimatemodel.com/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/
Next up will be the scary daisy fields.
So this is why they built all of those windmill farms–vortex catchers.
this is due to global warming??
A huge high above the northern Atlantic will be created.
Huge low will be created over Canada.
Why would you expect a weak jet stream with solar minimum conditions?
Explained here:
https://www.newclimatemodel.com/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/
The key feature is the observation of a reverse sign solar effect on ozone above 45km. It was that observation that led Joanna Haigh to suggest that the established science be reconsidered but that has not been done as far as I know.
When one does take that observation into account my description becomes the only logical explanation.
Okay, at the link in Figure 1 with the inactive sun depicted you have the following text that is confusing. It says “allowing the tropopause up.” That does not help the reader understand anything.
ResourceGuy
Fig 1 (inactive sun) shows tropopause up above the equator but down above the poles.
Fig 2 (active sun) shows tropopause down above the equator but up above the poles.
It is the inactive sun scenario where the tropopause is lowered above the poles that involves a warmer stratosphere above the poles with more stratospheric warming events, wavier jets and increased global cloudiness.
Looking at ECMWF next ten days to Jan 10th USA looks fairly normal and western Europe a bit colder. Seems to be getting called a bit too early.
griff says
And why does the polar vortex get displaced? Because of the effects of warming on the arctic.
HUhh?
warming of the arctic is causing an ice cold winter?
what about reaason being just normal cycles?
1) winter in the year (nh)
2) minimum at the sun, Schwabe cycle
3) beginning of a new solar Hale cycle
4) beginning of a new solar GB cycle
etc
An Arctic outbreak into east-central Europe and Balkan peninsula through early January (Jan 2 – 6th)
http://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/weather-maps/dynamic/850temp_anom_20181230_00_120.jpg-nggid047039-ngg0dyn-800x800x100-00f0w010c010r110f110r010t010.jpg
Thanks for your great comments, Stephen Wilde.
Thanks, jack.
As Jo Nova said back in 2015 it is time that my hypothesis received a proper airing.
So long as it stays toasty warm in Canada, I’m fine with that.
Right! Good luck.
Another wave of Arctic air reaches Colorado.
How the Global Warming propagandists have managed to put science upside down so they can blame cold weather on warming is quite remarkable.
A visit to http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html
Shows how jets streams are complex, wavy and changing even in winter during which they are faster, reflecting the higher density lower tropospheric circulation. But that, any good meteorologist knows.
An even larger temperature jump in the upper stratosphere.
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif