North America sets all-time record snowfall in November

From the “snowfalls are a thing of the past” department, comes this bit of news that’s sure to be blamed on “global warming”.

Snow cover anomalies for the month of November across “North America”; courtesy Rutgers Snow Lab

Overview

The month of December is well underway and there have already been some impressive snow accumulations for the month in such places as the Upper Midwest, western US and, most recently, in a large swath from Texas to North Carolina/Virginia with the very latest major winter storm. As it turned out, the month of November ended up with the most snowfall ever recorded in North America during the satellite era which goes back to the 1960’s.  Unusual cold for the month from Mexico-to-US-to-Canada contributed to this snowfall record in North America. The November snowfall extent in the Northern Hemisphere was the third highest ever recorded in the satellite era and continues an upward trend in recent years.

 Snow cover anomalies for the month of November across the “Northern Hemisphere”; courtesy Rutgers Snow Lab

Snow cover anomalies for the month of November across the “Northern Hemisphere”; courtesy Rutgers Snow Lab

Snow cover anomalies for the month of November across the “Northern Hemisphere”; courtesy Rutgers Snow Lab</p>”>

 

Discussion

November’s average snow cover across North America was an estimated 5.24 million square miles, topping the previous November record of 5.11 million square miles set in 2014, according to data from the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab (GSL) dating all the way back to 1966. The US experienced cold and stormy weather and this resulted in some of the earliest snowfalls ever recorded in such places as Houston, Texas and Monroe, Louisiana. A major storm that impacted much of the I-95 corridor at mid-month resulted in New York City’s (Central Park) heaviest November calendar-day snow in 136 years and the earliest ever for a reading of 6 inches or more (6.4”) as well as a pair of days that failed to get above freezing (Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday).  In addition, the 8.1 inches recorded in Allentown, Pennsylvania (Allentown Lehigh Valley Airport) was the heaviest November snowfall there since records began in 1944 (source EPAWA, twitter).  The 1.4 inches of snow recorded at Reagan National Airport (DCA) in Washington, D.C. at mid-month was their first measurable November snow accumulation since 1996.

 2-meter temperature anomalies for month of November 2018 across North America; courtesy Weather Bell Analytics

2-meter temperature anomalies for month of November 2018 across North America; courtesy Weather Bell Analytics

The last weekend of November featured a major snowstorm that pummeled the region from the central Plains to the Great Lakes and Chicago’s O’Hare Airport got off to its snowiest start to a winter season since the 1950’s with a foot of snow.  In a typical year, it takes until the second week of January for O’Hare to receive that amount (according to weather.com).  New England got hit very hard in late November with, for example, more than 19 inches recorded at Burlington, Vermont. Snow even returned to the state of California during the second half of November after an extensive dry spell ended with the onslaught of storms that moved in from the Pacific Ocean.  Many spots in the Sierra Nevada Mountains ended up with 2 or 3 feet of snow in a late month storm that also produced heavy rainfall in coastal sections.

Story via Perspecta Weather, read much more here


And it continues, there’s quite a bit of snow in North America today.

Area Covered By Snow Today: 46.7%
Area Covered Last Month: 24.5%

Source: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

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124 thoughts on “North America sets all-time record snowfall in November

    • Ralph, stop applying logic to a purely political movement wrought with hand wringing emotion. It is times like this that the emotional Warmist comes forth to remind us that we cannot conflate weather and climate. These of course, are the very same alarmists who have been pinning hurricanes, wildfires, and the recent pandemic of impacted wisdom teeth.

      But wait, I jumped ahead of the curve. They won’t have the wisdom teeth computer model up and running until 2019. Stand by for heavy rolls and emergency extractions.

      • Hand-wringing is key — KEY! It shows how much you CARE! How much you know is much less important. Uncertainty principles, modesty, humility, the ability to accept ambiguity or doubt — who needs any of those things?

        In the coalition of New Age Sensitive Guys & Hysterical Ninnies, all you really need to do is care.

          • I refuse to wring anything except a washcloth. I am simply glad that, despite the slop, slush and snow falling out of the sky like gangbusters and causing a major power outage in my kingdom, the power is back up and running.
            My kingdom is no longer in danger from Snowdragons, Ice Crystal drells, or that weird cave critter that bopped Luke Skywalker on the head and dragged him into its hole in the Big Drift.

    • Actually, this is my over-reaction to all that warmist nonsense.

      And I’m just getting started – winter is going to get colder – this winter will be cold and long…

      Cue: Twilight Zone music 🙂

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/17/will-the-snowiest-decade-continue/#comment-2521702

      Fair warning:
      I’m calling down another very hard winter on the US Northeast, extending up into Canada.
      The reason I’m doing this is that you deserve it. You continue to bleat about global warming, in a world that is about to get colder.

      You continue to blather on about climate change and the need to eliminate fossil fuels – do that tomorrow and most of you will be dead within a month or two.

      Fully 85% of global primary energy is fossil fuels and that number has not changed significantly in decades. Fossil fuel energy provides almost everything you need to survive in this complex world. It IS that simple!

      So enjoy the bitter cold and snow this winter, good people, and maybe you will actually learn something.

      Cold kills far more people then heat in the world today, probably about 2 million excess winter deaths per year.

      Bundle up!

    • Actually if you look at the data you will see that at the last four solar minima, cover was average to less than average.

      Your statement is not backed up by the data.

  1. Atmospheric water vapor has been increasing (graph https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dthp4WEVYAAVv36.jpg) at 1.5% per decade, 8% since 1960, but few seem to recognize the significance of the increase (about twice that from increase in vapor pressure due to temperature increase of liquid water) on climate.

    How much of recent high precipitation (with incidences reported world wide) is simply bad luck in the randomness of weather and how much is because of the ‘thumb on the scale’ of added water vapor?

    • Dan Pangburn – December 10, 2018 at 11:29 am

      Atmospheric water vapor has been increasing at 1.5% per decade, 8% since 1960,

      Is the government Agency that has been measuring and calculating the Global Average Atmospheric H2O Vapor ppm Increases …….. the same government Agency that has been measuring and calculating the Global Average Near-surface Atmospheric Temperature Increases?

      Surely it is, …….. and that would explain why their calculations are defining a 1.5% per decade increase in Atmospheric H2O Vapor.

      “DUH”, the Surface Temperature Stations also record humidity (H2O vapor).

      Iffen the temperature rises ……… the humidity is also likely to rise.

      And iffen ya fudge the recorded temperatures ….. ya also have to fudge the recorded humidity. 😊

      • Yes Dan: The IPCC has got itself into an awful logical mess.
        First it defined Radiative Forcing (RF) as a force ( pounds force) as in voltage in electrical terms. Next it converted this into an energy flux (approx 1.6 Watts/sq.m) This could only have been done by calculating the opposing force generated by a climate which the IPCC considered to be appropriate at the time and hence arriving at the resulting energy flux.
        One can now but wonder what that appropriate climate was and how it was created.
        Finally this flux is now taken as standard value to be applied to all other climates and further morphed into a temperature value by means of the Planck Equation (chngF = K*chngT) where the “k” coefficient is called the “Climate Sensitivity “ (ECS) This flux Meme, I suggest, is now incorporated into most of the models and is thus a root cause of their abysmal performance.

        Sadly for the IPCC not all climates are equal; and ECS varies greatly and possibly quickly such as with the seasons.
        As you rightly point out humidity considerations here come to mind as at phase change the ECS is zero as the process takes place at constant temperature; so this little nugget of fact really does muck up the calculation.
        Result? – Loads of Fudge methinks. Not surprising that the IPCC admits to not knowing much about clouds. It should ask the engineers!

        In practice the radiative force in opposition to the greenhouse RF is mainly generated by water as it goes round the atmospheric Rankine Cycle. But that is another story.

      • SCC – I am using UAH for lower atm temperature. RSS v3.3 temperature corroborates UAH. RSS v 4.0 appears to have drifted up about 0.2 K over the period about 1995 to 2013 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Drpqhr-VsAANpZc.jpg. Slope trends of all measurements have been about the same since about 2016.
        NASA/RSS measures WV by satellite and reports average global (actually +/- 60 deg latitude) monthly, numerical data reachable through http://www.remss.com/measurements/atmospheric-water-vapor/tpw-1-deg-product
        WV has been increasing about twice as fast as calculated from vapor pressure increase resulting from temperature increase.

        • Dan Pangburn – December 11, 2018 at 8:29 am

          NASA/RSS measures WV by satellite and reports average global (actually +/- 60 deg latitude) monthly,

          Ah so, ….. by satellite, ….. the “magic eye” in the sky that can “see” and “count” all the different gas molecules in the atmosphere.

          The problem is, the satellite can only “see” the IR radiation ….. which is directed at it …. but then it has to guess as to what the origin of the IR was. The same thing with clouds, whether its satellite or radar, they can only guess as to how much WV they contain.

      • Yes but it is the relative humidity, i.e., the sweat you develop on your balls when do are doing your sister-in-law!!

    • Yeah, I’m no government agency. I’ve been tracking local weather on my own for some time now, and I’m finding that humidity for this cold time of year has become MUCH higher and stays there than it ever was 10, 15 and 20 years ago. That may have something to do with the snow and/or rain loads in cloud formations, or it could be just a fluke, but if it continues, it is not a fluke. It is a trend to a new direction.

  2. This is how the great global warming scare will finally end.

    One by one people will realize that the world isn’t getting warmer. They may realize it early one morning while shivering on a cold street corner in Chicago waiting for a bus, or maybe they will quietly realize it while shoveling a heavy snow off their driveway in Alabama, or perhaps when their flight from Dulles Airport is cancelled because of snow one dark night, or maybe when they wake up one morning in Warsaw or Stockholm or Berlin and see snow outside their window. There won’t be any grand event to mark the gradual recovery of sanity. It will just be a slow one-by-one awakening.

    Many of the Hollywood elite, the politicians and the wise priests of the news media will continue to mechanically mouth the global warming mantras but the conviction will be gone. The apostles of this peculiar faith won’t admit they were wrong. They will simply stop talking about it.

    Global warming will quietly end with a whimper as the weather refuses to cooperate. And twenty years from now someone will turn to his companion and ask “Do you remember the global warming thing when we were kids? We had to sit through an Al Gore movie in biology class? What ever happened to that?”

    • Marty

      Love it.

      I have been saying for some time there will be a backlash from our youth when they realise their inheritance was blown on the ‘climate change scare’.

      “What about our grandchildren?” will turn into “what did our grandparents do to us?”

      We were all daft ideological kids once. We turned into mostly well adjusted adults. We now look back and thank our parents and grandparents for their sacrifices in two great wars (at least), I don’t think there will be many green grandchildren looking back with the same gratitude.

      • We’re leaving them with vast tracts of land covered with wind turbines and solar array farms. And that by the time (in a few decades) that they realize what’s been done to them, those turbines and solar farms will mostly be a broken, busted, and rusted useless messes scarring their landscapes.

        • Not to mention they will have broken, banned, and criminalized, any OTHER power sources.

          I also don’t think AGW will ‘go away’ – it will morph into something else. Remember the agenda behind it.

          • The previous Thursday (12/6/18), just choosing a recent weekday at random, it was only 5.6% from wind and solar (PV+Thermal).

            They expect to get to 100% by taking a helluva lot more of your money. You obviously need to be paying more of your fair share (good luck finding the definition of that). I left when I had a chance. I’ll never go back to live there.

      • Sadly you cannot unbrainwash. You heard the statement “ give me the child and I will give you the man? We need look beyond AGM. It is only one of the Western civilization destroying tools of the current marxist ideologically driven success story. So little makes logical sense yet it is happening. Go back to Critical Theory and the Frankfurt School to find the foundation of all the leftist inspired chaos in the Western world. Take a cross section of education establishments on both sides of the pond and just look at the politics of the average educator let loose on our most precious posession, our children. The deaths of 100 million people during the 20th Century on the alter of marxism have been quietly airbrushed away while the right is constantly being portrayed as unacceptable and dangerous. The left has taken over the middle ground and declared it’s proven bankrupt ideas as a success story and the only future for society. One way immigration, destruction of the religious cornerstone of Western values to be replaced by a medieval cult and an all pervading sense of guilt among the brattish children of the middle class who have been taught to hate their skin colour and be ashamed of their history which produced the pinnacle of human society we all enjoy today. In the US in the UK in Europe I hear concerning stories from parents with young children, children who being subjected to unrelenting leftist indoctrination in the place of education. The next generation of blind unquestioning believers is already rolling off the production line. Be concerned.

    • The scientists themselves will have to die off. Some researchers have been so committed to certain positions for so long that it would be end to their professional dignity to admit they were wrong about… everything. They will take their beliefs to the grave.

    • Excellent observation. Unfortunately, by then the rent-seekers, bureaucrats and NGOs, who have lived high on the Global Warming hog, will be onto their next sc@m.

    • Marty
      Nice guess, but wrong.

      All past environmental scares seem to have disappeared.

      They were replaced by new environmental scares,
      when the old boogeyman was no longer scaring people.

      The global warming scare has lasted the longest
      — it will also “die quietly” when a new, scarier boogeyman
      replaces it.

      The temperature could get 0.5 degrees colder and the
      bureaucrats could adjust that away, and then claim
      there was no global cooling — just in our imaginations.

      My money is on exploding silicone br-east implants
      for the next boogeyman — I’ve volunteered to do research.

  3. I understand the University I got my BSEE degree from Texas Tech U from has 1ft of snow on the ground today. That’s a bit unusual for there.

  4. Note in the text below: “snow depth” & “no real areal extent”
    Alternative Projections: SNODAS fields are effectively grids of point estimates of snow cover. Estimates of SWE and snow depth, as well as other variables have no real areal extent. Therefore, projecting SNODAS output to a particular projection is unnecessary. Moreover, different users prefer different projections. For example, Federal agencies are likely to use the Albers Equal Area projection, while researchers may use an alternative projection such as the EASE-Grid. Given that SNODAS outputs are essentially point estimates, the decision to re-project and choice of projection can be left to individual users.
    https://nsidc.org/sites/nsidc.org/files/files/nsidc_special_report_11.pdf

    While I understand the issue, I still dislike the look of this map, beyond the projection. This is similar to having say, sales of widgets by year (should be a bar chart) shown as a smooth curve. In a computer programming class (1965-66 ?) we tried several ways of making geographic cell data into a surface (using FORTRAN II-D). Many good programmers (coders) have done the job and, now, most viewers never think of what is going on to produce such maps.

  5. This means people will burn more fossil fuels to stay warm which will increase CO2 emissions and drive global warming. Yikes, it’s worse than we thought. /sarc

  6. My brother and I, both well into our 70s and old enough to recall WWII, were discussing the winters of our childhood a while back. Both of us recall snow on the ground before Thanksgiving as a regular occurrence.

    • When I was a kid, everyone had to walk to school in knee-deep snow, uphill both ways, starting a week after Labor Day. Never saw the grass until April.

      • When I was a lad, I had to get up in the morning at ten o’clock at night, half an hour before I went to bed, drink a cup of sulphuric acid, work twenty-nine hours a day down mill, and pay mill owner for permission to come to work, and when we got home, our Dad and our mother would kill us, and dance about on our graves singing ‘Hallelujah.’

        But you try and tell the young people today that… and they won’t believe ya’.
        (Monty Python)

    • GP,
      For the last 4-5 years, central Wisconsin (Green Lake/Waushara counties area) has had snow and freezing weather during the week of Thanksgiving in November.

      • What goes around…
        I grew up in central Illinois. I used to like early snow back then. Now, not so much.

  7. Round up the usual suspects, Dept.

    This heavy snowfall is obviously caused by global warming. What sort of heretical, anti-intellectual miscreant could fail to notice? In fact, every inconvenient thing, truthful or not, is caused by global warming. Every weather event — another tornado, another tornado drought, another picnic rained out, even the ants at the picnic (See? They’ve migrated all the way here from Guatemala!) are caused by global warming. There was a time when individual events were only individual events, but now they are all manifestations of Gore’s, Hansen’s & McKibben’s Big, Fat, Hairy Vision of Evil.

    The solution? Act shocked — SHOCKED! Then close down Western Civilization, AKA Rick’s Café Americain.

  8. The ski season is also getting off to a good start here in Tahoe. Squaw/Alpine was able to open several weeks ahead of schedule. One of the earliest ever openings for the KT22 chair.

    • Stop! That’s not Fair!

      There, I said it: But my father always said that when you hear the words “that’s not fair” you are listening to a loser.

      • Mammoth is frequently open until the 4’th of July and a couple years ago, they were open until mid August and even Squaw was open on the 4’th which has only happened a few times over the last few decades. Early June skiing is not that uncommon except in drought years. Although, even in the recent drought years, skiable snow persisted in the mountains all summer long if you know where to look. You just have to hike for it.

        Lately, I’ve also noticed a higher fraction of colder storms and less of the Sierra cement Tahoe is famous for.

    • Chile’s ski season usually starts in June, but a couple of years ago, it started early – I think in May – which made the resort owners (and skiers) very happy, of course.

  9. Ohhhh mammmaaa !!!! … EXTREME weather!!! … Polar Vortex!!! Dogs, cats, living together oh my!! Only a NEW TAX on your sinful lives will SAVE THE PLANET!!! And the offering plate is NOT voluntary. YOU will PAY just as much as Tom Steyer! You WILL be FORCED out of your cars … and your BIG homes!!! Viva CHE!!!

  10. ‘that’s sure to be blamed on “global warming”’

    Nah. THIS will be blamed on ‘climate change’.

  11. Surely it must be fake snow. Or, because of global warming the snow flakes have expanded, so it takes less snow to cover more ground. There, on to the next catastrophe from a further 0.5 degree “anomaly”.
    Meanwhile in Katowice it is a lovely 2 degrees – I wonder how much coal is being burnt to keep all those United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change delegates warm.

    • It’s simple.
      November, being not yet Winter, is still a bit warm.
      Warmer air holds more moisture, so more snow.
      They’ve told us that reason so many times, you’d think everyone gets it, by now.

      • Alan:
        Yep, there’s that, but there’s the slow/weak Arctic PV formation (again) this year – because of the extent of open water.
        That allows more of a -ve AO (high pressure zones) there, pushing cold arctic air south.
        IOW: The N American continent has seen several transient cold waves … which (as we know?) will give snowfall as they mix with warm/moist air.
        Weather caused, ironically, by a warming climate trend.

      • “…They’ve told us that reason so many times, you’d think everyone gets it, by now…”

        They told us for well over two decades that snowfall was starting later, ending sooner, and decreasing overall…and would just get worse. Once everyone “got it,” the data said they need to make a 180.

  12. And yet 2018 will be among the top 4 or 5 hottest years on record globally… maybe even the hottest. Gavin already has his calculator warmed up. Bank on it.

  13. Global Warming… measured in feet not inches.

    As snow is now a thing of the past in the new catastrophic climate,obviously that white stuff lying all over the surface must be Global Warming.
    Of course on a planet dominated by water,where the multiple phases of this amazing molecule modulate the other inputs that create weather, it would be too simple to suggest that a slight cooling of the atmosphere might result in the dropping of some water vapour.
    Ain’t “settled science” grand.

    • “As snow is now a thing of the past in the new catastrophic climate,obviously that white stuff lying all over the surface must be Global Warming.”

      And what on Earth gave you the ide that a future projection (which may or may not be “catastrophic” is NOW?)
      It will get cold enough for snowfall in the north in a NH winter centuries from now (the hearts of continents get cold without the sun).
      If you allude to the daft scientist who said that “our children will not know snow”.
      He was talking of snow in the UK (not exactly frequent on low ground) and of children who may not yet have been born, and who even then would live ~80 years.
      Not the toddlers playing in you garden (and indeed well able to build a snowman)
      But then … if you say so.

      • “…He was talking of snow in the UK (not exactly frequent on low ground) and of children who may not yet have been born, and who even then would live ~80 years.
        Not the toddlers playing in you garden (and indeed well able to build a snowman)
        But then … if you say so…”

        What does it matter if they live to around 80? If they know what snow is as children, then they’ll know what it was as adults. Duh.

        Here’s the article. http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

        “…According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

        “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said…”

        Within a few years of 2000 is not something approaching 2080.

        The quote was used to support an article titled, “Snowfalls are just a thing of the past” and the article contains any number of anecdotal quotes to support such a thing.

        I’m sure you have evidence where Dr. Viner clarified his statements but have just neglected to post such a thing.

        • ““Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said…””

          He was talking of the UK.
          Many a winter has gone by for me without seeing a snowflake (low ground Midlands/E England).
          And why would those children have to be alive now?
          And why would those children not LIVE to see a UK climate in which snow would would be absent?
          That could easily be 80 years away from his words.
          Viner is not the IPCC.
          Just as stupid as the following ..
          Monckton is not the naysayer community.

          Oh … BTW:
          “What does it matter if they live to around 80? If they know what snow is as children, then they’ll know what it was as adults. Duh.”

          An excellent “down the rabbit-hole comment well done.
          A goody even for here.

  14. Unusual cold for the month from Mexico-to-US-to-Canada contributed to this snowfall record in North America.

    Surely not!
    Cold AND snow together?
    Correlation is not necessarily causation.
    I thought that snow was caused by warmth and moisture.
    /sarc

    • I just looked back at this year’s figures in my record of the temperatures here in Mechanicsville, VA. Three months–February, May, and September–had above-average temps for the month, while the other nine (I’m including December so far) were below average. Just roughly averaging and dividing, the year so far is about 2.3 degrees F below the long-term average, with four months more than five degrees below (Jan, Mar, Apr, Nov) and December so far 6.6 degrees F below the long-term average. Yesterday 10″ of snow fell here (I’m averaging figures from various spots in the yard), and today the temperature roared up to 37F and started some melting. The Richmond Times-Dispatch weather writer, John Boyer, wrote that for many spots in VA and NC, this was a record snow for so early in the winter. It was a lot, and it fell constantly and spectacularly for several hours; lovely, but not easy to deal with afterwards. (I am comparing my averages with those at RIC, Richmond International Airport.)

  15. Someone once posted on WUWT and it stuck with me … weathermans handbook says reduce forecast by 5F if there is snow cover. I’ve never actually seen the weathermans handbook but it seems about right.

  16. But, remember, the Cult of Climastrology came up with their Talking Point that human caused GHGs, primarily from fossil fuels, is melting the Arctic, which causes polar vortexes and other weather events that cause cold air and massive snow.

    Because cultists always find a way to prop up their cult.

  17. Anthony, while I like anomalies, I also like to see the actual data graphed as well. It gives me an idea of how significant the anomaly is relative to the magnitude of the actual phenomena. This applies to temperature anomalies, north pole sea-ice cover, etc. They all mean more when we can see the totals as well as the anomalies.

  18. lts nice to see snow extent across the NH getting more attention, because its the one part of the global climate that is casting real doubt about the claims of the AGW lobby. lts said to be a warming world but yet the NH snow extent has been tracking side wards since the early 90’s.
    My 41 year recording of the date of the first snow in my local area is now showing a slight trend towards more early first snows, thanks to a recent run of early first snow. Along with other data it suggests that over the last 40 to 50 years. There has been very change in the timing of the onset of winter across the NH and maybe there is a trend is towards a slightly more early start to the winter season.

  19. There is a lot of empirical evidence showing we’re heading into a new cooling period:

    1) Norther Hemisphere Snow Extents increasing.
    2) Greenland Land Mass increasing: NSIDC said 2017’s Greenland Ice Mass gain was a 1-in-100 year event. 2018 will also show a gain…. According to statistics, having two back to back 1-in-100-year events is a 1 in 10,000-year event..
    3) Arctic Summer Ice Minimums haven’t significantly changed since 2007. Some CAGW alarmists predicted the Arctic would be “ice free” by the summer of 2012… not so much.
    4) No statistically significant global warming since mid-1996, despite 30% of all manmade CO2 emissions since 1750 being made over the last 22 years…
    5) According to NASA’s October 31, 2015 report, Antarctic Land Ice Mass has been increasing at 80~100 billion tons/year since satellite data started in 1992.
    6) UAH6.0 global temps are currently well below all 105 CMIP5 model projections. The CMIP5 model average predicted global temps would be at +1.15C by now, but as of November 2018, the global temp anomaly is just 0.28C…

    I think all these cooling events are being caused by:
    1) An approaching 50-year Grand Solar Minimum event starting from 2020.
    2) The PDO, AMO and NAO are either in–or soon will be soon–their respective 30-year ocean cool cycles. The last time this happened (1945~1978), global temps fell for 33 years. This also happened from 1880~1910, which also led to 30 years of global cooling.

    On a side note, given the rapid increase of seismic activity around the world, I think a VEI5+ volcanic eruption will occur soon since the last one was in 1991 and these occur every 30 years or so, which will also generate a short-term global cooling spike.

    • Hi Samurai.
      Good post. Hope we are both wrong.
      Best, Allan

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/17/oddly-quiet-sun-3-weeks-without-sunspots/#comment-2407423
      [excerpt]

      I predicted that natural global cooling would commence by 2020 to 2030, in an article published 1Sept2002 in the Calgary Herald. I am now leaning closer to 2020 for cooling to start, possibly even earlier. I hope to be wrong. Humanity and the environment suffer during cooling periods.

      I suggest that it is long past time for society to prepare for the possibility of moderate global cooling.

      This would involve:
      1. Strengthening of electrical grid systems, currently destabilized by costly, intermittent green energy schemes;
      2. Reduce energy costs by all practical means.
      3. Development of contingency plans for food production and storage, should early frosts impact harvests;
      4. Develop contingency plans should vital services be disrupted by cold weather events – such as the failure of grid power systems, blocking of transportation corridors, etc.
      5. Improve home insulation and home construction standards.

      The current mania over (fictitious) catastrophic global warming has actually brewed the “perfect storm” – energy systems have been foolishly compromised and energy costs have been needlessly increased, to fight imaginary warming in a (probably) cooling world.

      I suggest this is the prudent path for Western societies to follow. It has no downside, even if global cooling does not occur, and considerable upside if moderate cooling does commence.

      Best, Allan

      • My friend is no longer at the EIA, so I sent the above note and this one to the White House.

        Hope they read their mail… 🙂

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/17/will-the-snowiest-decade-continue/#comment-2521694

        Prior to the record snowfall in the winter of 2014–15, Joe d’Aleo and I sent a written warning to my friend at the EIA, stating that the NWS weather forecast that EIA used was extremely in error, and warning of a very cold and snowy winter to come, especially for the Northeast Coast.

        The EIA reran their lower 48 USA energy demand for that winter using Joe’s forecast and calculated an additional 11% total energy required for the winter months. The actual energy consumption were one percent lower than Joe’s forecast and 10% higher in the NWS forecast. That is a huge amount of energy.

        I do not know what contingency the EIA uses, so I don’t know if we saved any lives. Nevertheless, I believe we did a good deed and we may have indeed significantly reduced human suffering.
        In summary, if you want an accurate weather forecast, go to WeatherBell, not NWS.

      • Allan-san:

        Excellent advice, Allan-san.

        I share your concerns about the US electrical grid, which has been devasted by insane Leftist alt-energy policies and also generally poor maintenance of the grid.

        The US electrical grid isn’t even protected from EMP surges, which will have horrific consequences when (not if) the next Carrington Event occurs.

        I’m also concerned about cold-induced famines. During the Wolf Grand Solar Minimum (1280~1350), famines and exposure from brutally cold winters, late/early frost events, and shortened growing seasons wiped out 25% of Europe’s population, only to be followed by the Black Death (1352~55), which wiped out 50% of the remaining population.

        I’m not sure what government measures can (or should) be taken to alleviate the effects of global cooling on crops, especially in Northern latitudes, although GMO cereal crops with shortened harvest times would help.

        I do love the Immutable Law of Leftist Irony—policies designed to “Save the World” from the Global Warming Hoax may, ironically, actually lead to the needless deaths of millions during a global cooling event…

        We live in interesting times, Allan-san.

      • Allan, Sam – IMO you are (unfortunately) both right. Also, it appears that warming might have ended around 2002 with the last el Nino temporarily interrupting the flat trend. The slope change from uptrend to flat trend shows in the UAH trend https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DtNIoSoVsAAyOJ-.jpg I agree the downtrend should be apparent soon. Based on some earlier work, I expect the downtrend to be about the same rate as the circa 1990 uptrend of only about 0.2 K per decade.

        As to WV/precipitation, it correlates with irrigation increase so the precipitation trend is probably up to stay and we should enhance infrastructure to attend to it.

        • Hi Dan,

          CAnnot find this recent NIAC report on threats to the grid.

          Best wishes for the Holidays to you and yours,
          Allan

          Homeland Security Report: RE Electric Grid
          https://thepoliticalinsider.com/homeland-security-report-terrorists-profound-threat-electric-grid/?utm_campaign=TPI_Afternoon_Newsletter_12_11_2018&utm_source=critcialimpact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=4f8aaf1fe29956bda6473c7b9fa19141&source=CI
          By Daily Caller
          Jason Hopkins on December 10, 2018
          [excerpt]

          A new government report warns that the United States would be woefully unprepared in the event of a catastrophic power outage, regardless of what the cause may be.

          “The risk posed by a catastrophic power outage, however, is not simply a bigger, stronger storm. It is something that could paralyze entire regions, with grave implications for the nation’s economic and social well-being,” read a 94-page report prepared for the Department of Homeland Security in December. “Most importantly, the scale of the event—stretching across states and regions, affecting tens of millions of people — would exceed and exhaust mutual aid resources and capabilities.”

          The analysis was conducted by the President’s National Infrastructure Advisory Council (NIAC), a group of senior executives who are involved in the operation and maintenance of critical infrastructure.

          The NIAC found that the country’s current response plans for a “catastrophic” power failure — a widespread power outage that could arise without warning and last several weeks to several months — is not nearly adequate.
          ___________________

          • So let’s put a whole bunch of intermittent, destabilizing wind and solar at the far end of the grid – what could possibly go wrong. Other states have done it, right?

            Let’s ask our friends in South Australia. Hello, South Australia? Hello? Hello? Hello?
            Geez – there’s no answer…

        • So let’s put a whole bunch of intermittent, destabilizing wind and solar at the far end of the grid – what could possibly go wrong? Other states have done it, right?

          Let’s ask our friends in South Australia. Hello, South Australia? Hello? Hello? Hello?
          Geez – there’s no answer…

    • “Norther Hemisphere Snow Extents increasing.”

      Is it?
      4 of the last 10 winters had -ve anomalies….
      https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201712.gif

      You are aware that snow extent is not a proxy for temperature?
      As in that extent increases at the margins where cold and warm air-masses meet.
      and over a snow field T2 temps may vary between just above freezing to as low as minus loads.
      As in warmer air is wetter and given a climate that has a -ve winter mean then even a 1 deg increase in temp of an air-mass near 0C would hold over 4% more precipitable water.

      It appears to be melting quicker/earlier ….
      https://climate.rutgers.edu/snow

      “Greenland Land Mass increasing: ”
      Again – is it?…
      https://www.dmi.dk/uploads/tx_dmidatastore/webservice/b/m/s/d/e/accumulatedsmb.png

      “Arctic Summer Ice Minimums haven’t significantly changed since 2007.”
      Except for 2012 that is – which as an enormous outlier would be difficult to beat in the short term – Still on trend of the long-term decline…..
      https://arcticportal.org/images/news/2018/arctic-sea-ice/Arctic_sea_ice_september_mean.png

      However greatest warming is occurring over the Arctic in Winter – and we see that in the decline in max extent in March ….
      https://mogreenstats.files.wordpress.com/2018/04/sea-ice-chart.png

      “Some CAGW alarmists predicted the Arctic would be “ice free” by the summer of 2012”

      No, one did – Wadhams. He isn’t the IPCC.
      This is the IPCC projection ….
      https://i1.wp.com/i1039.photobucket.com/albums/a475/Knownuthing/SeaIceProjections2_zpssnsxjkwv.png

      “No statistically significant global warming since mid-1996”
      Just out and out blind denial ….
      http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Temperature-UAH.png

      ” According to NASA’s October 31, 2015 report, Antarctic Land Ice Mass has been increasing at 80~100 billion tons/year since satellite data started in 1992.”

      Has it?
      This is more up to date ….
      http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/2018/06/mass-balance-antarctic-ice-sheet-1992-2017/
      http://cdn.antarcticglaciers.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/IMBIE-team-2018-figure-2.jpg

      “UAH6.0 global temps are currently well below all 105 CMIP5 model projections”
      UAH is a massive cold outlier that estimates (by virtue of an algorithm) the radiances meassued by a single instrument – the AMSU onboard NOAA15 – which both does not agree with it’s predecessor MSU before 1998 and does not agree with both RATPAC A sonde data and ERA5 reanalysis. Another “interpretation” of it comes from RSS and that is much closer to the surface record (which comes from thousands of sensors).
      Additionally greatest warming is occurring nocturnally over land (under a surface based inversion) which the AMSU CANNOT measure.

      https://i0.wp.com/postmyimage.com/img2/510_Tropospheretrends.png
      https://drive.google.com/file/d/15gUj5AcD-gAqJ4HVYXu_3xYvUtwBvtOO/view

      • Anthony-san:

        1) Since the PDO entered its 30-year cool cycle, Norther Hemisphere snow extents have been increasing.

        2) NSICD reported Greenland’s Land Ice Mass increased 46 billion tons in 2017, and about 20 billion tons in 2018.

        3) Of course after NASA’s 2015 ICESAT report showing Antarctic Land Ice grew at 80 billion tons/year since 1991, they’d come out with a “new and improved version” that miraculously shows just the opposite… How convenient..

        3) UAH is the only valid global temp dataset remaining… The others have added so much heat to raw temp data, they’re now rubbish. BTW, the UAH6.0 dataset match almost perfectly with radiosonde global temp dataset; HADCRUT, GISTEMP and RSS certainly don’t.

        The 2012 Arctic summer low was caused by the strongest and longest Arctic cyclone in 50 years, not CO2 induced warming…

        There wasn’t a global warming trend from mid-1996 to mid-2015:

        http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:1996.6/to:2015.7/plot/uah6/from:1996.6/to:2015.7/trend/plot/esrl-co2/from:1996.6/to:2015.7/normalise/trend/plot/esrl-co2/from:1996.6/to:2015.7/normalise

        The 2015/16 warming spike anomaly was caused by the 2015/16 Super El Niño event, not CO2 induced warming…

  20. I’ll make the same comment that I make when the alarmists go on and on about heat records.

    Basically, the record doesn’t go back all that far.

  21. Uhmmm,,,

    Just don’t say that. “All-Time Record?'”

    Earth goes back a LOT longer than records of snowfall.

    Just do not say that, makes us all look like idiots, starting to agree with Mosher the Skeptic of Skeptics, demanding better science…

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