Claim: Air Pollution, Not Greenhouse Gases, Is the Main Cause of Global Warming

NOTE: I don’t necessarily agree with this [at all], but I thought it worth exposing – Anthony


In a recent article in the Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International, Transdyne Corporation geoscientist J. Marvin Herndon makes the startling claim that climate scientists, including the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have been chasing the wrong culprit for global warming and climate change.

From the article, “Fig. 3 is a copy of [Gottschalk’s] Fig. 2 to which has been added three relative-value proxies that represent major activities that produce particulate pollution.”

“Time series of global surface temperature presentations often exhibit a bump coincident with World War II (WW2),” the Herndon article explains, “as did one such image on the front page of the January 19, 2017 New York Times.” Intrigued by the front-page New York Times graph, “Bernie Gottschalk of Harvard University applied sophisticated curve-fitting techniques and demonstrated that the bump,” which shows a global burst in Earth temperature during WW2, “is a robust feature showing up in eight independent NOAA databases, four land and four ocean.”

Inspired by Gottschalk’s data, Herndon considered “the broader activities of WW2,” especially those capable of “altering Earth’s delicate energy balance by particulate aerosols.” Herndon then “generalized [these] to post-WW2 global warming.” The geoscientist used relative-values of pollution-causing proxies to demonstrate “the reasonableness of the proposition that increases in aerosolized particulates over time is principally responsible for the concomitant global warming increases.”

These proxies for global particulate pollution – increasing global coal and crude oil production, as well as aviation fuel consumption – rise in strikingly parallel fashion to the rise in global temperature as shown in the accompanying figure.

“The World War II wartime particulate-pollution,” the Herndon article asserts, “had the same global-warming consequence as the subsequent ever-increasing global aerosol particulate-pollution from (1) increases in aircraft and vehicular traffic, and the industrialization of China and India with their smoke stacks spewing out smoke and coal fly ash,” as well as from recently documented studies that show “(2) coal fly ash [is being] covertly jet-sprayed into the region where clouds form on a near-daily, near-global basis.”

Herndon’s article further notes that “the integrity of [IPCC] models and assessments is compromised,” because of their “systematic failure to take into account the aerosolized pollution particulates that have been intentionally and covertly sprayed into the atmosphere for decades in the region where clouds form ….”

“Currently, air pollution is the leading environmental cause of disease and death worldwide, and…is increasing at an alarming rate,” according to Herndon, who cites a 2016 World Health Organization study. Emplacing airborne aerosols in the atmosphere to influence the weather and climate, or to enhance military communication systems, has huge adverse effects on the economy – notably on health, insurance, solar energy, energy consumption, agriculture, and forestry.

As stated: “Spraying coal fly ash into the atmosphere not only causes global warming by altering Earth’s delicate thermal balance, but it is a major risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and neurodegenerative disease, as well as being involved in the global catastrophic bee and insect die-off and in forest die-offs worldwide, poisoning the biosphere with mercury, and destroying atmospheric ozone that protects us from the sun’s deadly ultraviolet radiation.”

The article contains numerous scientific references for the above statements.

Herndon concludes his article by warning that the “continued deliberate pollution of our atmosphere with aerosolized coal fly ash will inevitably cripple our ability to produce food crops and may cause untold death and destruction, for example, by altering Monsoon weather patterns and by exacerbating wildfires. Unless…halted, we [will] drive ever-forward toward the first anthropogenic mass extinction of life on Earth.”

###


Reference: Air Pollution, Not Greenhouse Gases: The Principal Cause of Global Warming. J. Geography Environ. Earth Sci. Int. 17(2) 1-8; Article no.JGEESI.44290

Freely download pdf: http://nuclearplanet.com/apmh.pdf


Source: /PRNewswire/

UPDATE: I’ve decided this fellow is not credible, this is why. From the paper:

The IPCC-condoned climate computermodels not only suffer from the uncertainties associated with those complexities, but the integrity of their models and assessments is compromised [10] by the universal, systematic failure to take into account the aerosolized pollution particulates that have been intentionally and covertly sprayed into the atmosphere for decades in the region where clouds form [11,12]. The covert aerial spraying is obvious to those
who are aware of their natural surroundings, and millions of people have expressed concern [13,14].

Another chemtrails conspiracy theorist.

See this article on chemtrails to see why the theory is a load of bunk. While the figure shown in the press release does in fact show a correlation between jet fuel consumption and modern day warming, adding the chemtrail theory into the study kills any credibility it may have had. – Anthony

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October 19, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Contrails & weather
Impact of unusually clear weather on United States daily temperature range following 9/11/2001
Adam J. Kalkstein*, Robert C. Balling Jr

ABSTRACT: Several investigators have suggested that the airline shutdown following the 9/11 terrorist attacks led to a reduction of jet contrails and an increase in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) across the US. Here, we use an air-mass approach to control for weather conditions across the country following 9/11 in order to more accurately assess the observed patterns in the temperature range. We indeed find a higher-than-average DTR shortly after the attacks, but we find that the unusually clear weather across the US more than accounts for the observed DTR. KEY WORDS: Jet contrails · Diurnal temperature range · Air masses

Examination of diurnal temperature range at coterminous U.S. stations during Sept. 8–17, 2001
W. A. van Wijngaarden, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, July 2012, Volume 109, Issue 1–2, pp 1–5

Abstract: The tragic events of Sept. 11, 2001 resulted in suspension of commercial flights over North America. It has been suggested that the diurnal temperature range (DTR) increased due to an absence of airplane contrails. This study examined hourly data observed at 288 stations. The average DTR, temperature, maximum/minimum temperature and relative humidity were found for each day in 2001 and compared to the average value occurring during 1975–2005. For the coterminous U.S., the DTR averaged over the period Sept. 11–14, 2001 was about 1°C larger than that found for the 3 days prior and after the flight ban. However, the day-to-day DTR does not correlate well with the flight ban. Plots of the change in DTR throughout North America during Sept. 8–17 show changes consistent with the natural progression of weather systems.

Ryan, A.C., MacKenzie, A.R., Watkins, S. and Timmis, R., 2012. World War II contrails: a case study of aviation‐induced cloudiness. International Journal of Climatology, 32(11), pp.1745-1753.

ABSTRACT: Dense and persistent condensation trails or contrails were produced by daytime US Army Air Force (USAAF) bombing raids, flown from England to Europe during World War II (WW2). These raids occurred in years when civilian air travel was rare, giving a predominantly contrail-free background sky, in a period when there were more meteorological observations taken across England than at any time before or since. The aircraft involved in the raids entered formation at contrail-forming altitudes (generally over 16 000 ft, approximately 5 km) over a relatively small part of southeast England before flying on to their target. This formation strategy provides us a unique opportunity to carry out multiple observation-based comparisons of adjacent, same day, well-defined overflown and non-over-flown regions.
We compile evidence from archived meteorological data, such as Met Office daily weather reports and individual station meteorological registers, together with historical aviation information from USAAF and Royal Air Force (RAF) tactical mission reports. We highlight a number of potential dates for study and demonstrate, for one of these days, a marked difference in the amount of high cloud cover, and a statistically significant (0.8 °C) difference in the 07 : 00–13 : 00 UTC temperature range when comparing data from highly overflown stations to those upwind of the flight path on the same day. Although one event cannot provide firm conclusions regarding the effect of contrails on climate, this study demonstrates that the wealth of observational data associated with WW2 bombing missions allows detailed investigation of meteorological perturbations because of aviation-induced cloudiness. Copyright  2011 Royal Meteorological Society
KEY WORDS contrails; condensation trails; World War II; aviation-induced cloudiness; cirrus; diurnal temperature range; cloud cover

The Contrail-Effect – PBS NOVA April 18, 2006
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/contrail-effect/

Re: Chemtrails vs Contrails
AIRCRAFT CLOUDS: FROM CHEMTRAIL PSEUDOSCIENCE TO THE SCIENCE OF CONTRAILS
Jordi Mazon, Marcel Costa and David Pino
https://upcommons.upc.edu/bitstream/handle/2117/116190/95-aircraft%20cloudsSD.pdf
Abstract

The most frequent statements and arguments found in pseudoscience websites and forums supporting the existence of so-called aircraft chemtrails can be refuted with a scientific explanation of the processes resulting in the formation of condensation or deposition trails, known as contrails. Thus, the hypothesis that chemtrails exist is disproven by the scientific literature that shows that they are the exact same entity as contrails: They are hydrological phenomena which result from a physical process referenced in the many studies carried out since the beginning of the age of aviation, in the early twentieth century. Hence, in this paper we conclude that pseudoscience’s chemtrails are nothing more than the contrails described by science. Keywords: chemtrails, contrails, pseudoscience, science, high-level clouds.

October 19, 2018 3:55 pm

What warming?

Reply to  Nick Schroeder
October 19, 2018 4:11 pm

The UAH global anomaly 12/78 through 8/18, 40 years, shows Δ1.1 C, 5/99 thru 4/15 essentially flat.
More bickering over data minutia and ignoring the root cause.

World wide distribution of the following and still no takers. Surface BB upwelling – yes or no?

I’ll plow this plowed ground and beat this dead horse yet some more. Maybe somebody will step up and ‘splain scientifically how/why I’ve got it wrong – or not.

Radiative Green House Effect theory (TFK_bams09):

1) 288 K – 255 K = 33 C warmer with atmosphere, RGHE’s only reason to even exist – rubbish. (simple observation & Nikolov & Kramm)
But how, exactly is that supposed to work?

2) There is a 333 W/m^2 up/down/”back” energy loop consisting of the 0.04% GHG’s that absorbs/”traps”/re-emits per QED simultaneously warming BOTH the atmosphere and the surface. – Good trick, too bad it’s not real, thermodynamic nonsense.
And where does this magical GHG energy loop first get that energy?

3) From the 16 C/289 K/396 W/m^2 S-B 1.0 ε ideal theoretical BB radiation upwelling from the surface. – which due to the non-radiative heat transfer participation of the atmospheric molecules is simply not possible.

No BB upwelling & no GHG energy loop & no 33 C warmer means no RGHE theory & no CO2 warming & no man caused climate change.

Demonstrations/experiments in the classical style:
https://principia-scientific.org/debunking-the-greenhouse-gas-theory-with-a-boiling-water-pot/

Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
October 19, 2018 5:19 pm

Air pollution is localized and short lived. Wind-greenbelts have a major impact on removing air pollution. It has no direct impact on global warming but create the scene for urban-heat-island effect if temperature inversion is formed.

Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

jmorpuss
October 19, 2018 5:48 pm
Patrick MJD
October 19, 2018 7:37 pm

Air pollution was supposed to be the cause of cooling.

SAMURAI
October 19, 2018 8:16 pm

Real air pollutants have dropped 40~99% (depending on pollutant) just since 1980:

https://www.epa.gov/air-trends/air-quality-national-summary

Most clueless Leftists think air quality is getting worse and worse because of the propaganda they’re taught in school, and see and read in the MSM…

Aggressive Leftist ignorance and Socialism kills far more people around the world than air pollution ever has…

SAMURAI
Reply to  SAMURAI
October 19, 2018 10:05 pm

Sorry, moderator.. posted on the wrong article..

jmorpuss
October 19, 2018 8:55 pm

Dr. Ben Livingston : The Father Of Weaponized Weather (Full-Length HQ)

October 19, 2018 10:45 pm

“Time series of global surface temperature presentations often exhibit a bump coincident with World War II (WW2),” the Herndon article explains, “as did one such image on the front page of the January 19, 2017 New York Times.” Intrigued by the front-page New York Times graph, “Bernie Gottschalk of Harvard University applied sophisticated curve-fitting techniques and demonstrated that the bump,” which shows a global burst in Earth temperature during WW2, “is a robust feature showing up in eight independent NOAA databases, four land and four ocean.”

Inspired by Gottschalk’s data, Herndon considered “the broader activities of WW2,” especially those capable of “altering Earth’s delicate energy balance by particulate aerosols.” Herndon then “generalized [these] to post-WW2 global warming.” The geoscientist used relative-values of pollution-causing proxies to demonstrate “the reasonableness of the proposition that increases in aerosolized particulates over time is principally responsible for the concomitant global warming increases.”

These proxies for global particulate pollution – increasing global coal and crude oil production, as well as aviation fuel consumption”

It is all make believe, i.e. nonsense dressed up with fossil fuel and mining industry sourced lipstick and makeup.

There is zero proof, offered.
Every one of their claims is based on eyeballing a modified graph with a temperature graph, then assigning causation where association is not demonstrated. Article propaganda promotes false associations to correlations and then into causation.

I’ll lay odds that the populations of lemmings and chickens would be just as alarming in their made up graph.
Similar appearing to escalate upward graph lines can be collected from a multitude of sources; e.g. human dwellings, plastic straws or pigeons.

WXcycles
October 19, 2018 11:53 pm

Oh geez! It really is humans! DOH!

Randy
October 20, 2018 6:06 am

White tail deer are causing global warming. Since the late 1940s. The population of White Tail deer have increased dramatically. IN Pennsylvania in the late 1940s these deer were rarely observed, likely because rural poverty stricken people dined upon them during the depression. Every year since then shows double digit increases in the White Tailed Deer population to the point where the population often exceeds 50 deer per rural acre. This upward graphical curve supports the hypothesis that increases in the population of White Tailed Deer cause global warming.

Isn’t this as scientific as Air Pollution, Not Greenhouse Gases, Is the Main Cause of Global Warming?

Leitwolf
October 20, 2018 7:31 am

You will not have to watch the full length video (about 3hrs) to understand to subject. It is just a weather balloon going into the stratosphere, nothing else, no agenda. You might notice however a distinct haze layer somewhere up there at the beginning. The balloon approaches this layer at about the 1hr mark. One might assume it is exactly the altitude for air travel, which gets strong support by the noise of fly-by aircraft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnxvS9XFJnE

I think this is very impressive evidence of how strongly air travel is modifying our skies, and furthermore one just has to wonder what the impact on climate will be. The “official” position would be high altitude clouds had a warming effect, which makes the question mark even bigger.

October 20, 2018 12:07 pm

Clearly an odd job selling a belief, however much some of the statements are of interest, and may have merit.

BTW, anything that causes clouds through increased nucleation creates compensating feedback warming by reduced evaporation heat transfer and cloud formation from the oceans as they cool, including the reduction in cloud albedo. The effect is 140W/m^2 currently, which can vary to maintain the current interglacial planetary equilibrium. ANy smallchanges are easilly offset by this dominant control. Including 1.6W/M§2 of AGW, if GHE science is real. JC Maxwell didn’t think so, and debunked Kelvin/Lord Thompson’s lapse rate theory, never proven. And he was much cleverer than me.

Julian Flood
October 21, 2018 7:56 am

If you spill light oil on a water surface the surface will be smoothed (see Benjamin Franklin, Clapham Pond). This lowers its albedo. An oil smoothed surface will be resistant to engagement by the wind: this reduces stirring and thus nutrient flow to phytoplankton. Starved phytoplankton populations move, on average, from C3 to C4 or C4-like metabolism, both of which discriminate less against heavy isotopes of carbon, _proportionately_ pulling down more C13 which leaves a light carbon ‘signal’ in the atmosphere.

A smoothed surface will resist wave breaking — personal observation suggests that whitecaps do not appear until approximately Force 4. Fewer breaking waves, less salt aerosol load, fewer clouds, more insolation, warmer oceans. A smoothed surface will evaporate less and thus cool less. Warming.

Now, let’s think. Why the blip?

JF

Johann Wundersamer
October 22, 2018 8:18 am

When will they ever learn –

 The Siege of Leningrad – Historylearningsite.co.uk

https://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/world-war-two/world-war-two-and-eastern-europe/the-siege-of-leningrad/

 https://www.britannica.com/event/Battle-of-Stalingrad

hell was frozen over in WWII.