By Dr. John Christy, Alabama State Climatologist
Meteorological summer (June, July and August) is now over and it’s time to check how the summer temperatures compare with other years. For a research project a few years ago we developed a statewide summer temperature index for four 100-mile diameter regions centered on the major cities of the state, Mobile, Montgomery, Birmingham and Huntsville going back to 1883. This summer will go down in that database and in NOAA’s official records as being slightly cooler than average.
Somewhat related to this, a reader sent me a link to a New York Times interactive website that claims to provide the number of days above 90°F each year for cities across the country. The results are produced for the Times by an outfit (some might call it an environmental pressure group) called the Climate Impacts Lab.
Since I build numerous datasets of this type, I took a look. The website asks you for the town and year in which you were born, then provides a time series purportedly showing the number of 90°F days per year since your birth and how that has increased.
Though a native of California, I have lived in Huntsville more years than any other place, so I put in my birth year and Huntsville as my hometown. Immediately I became suspicious when their dataset started only recently in 1960 (and a few years after my birth!) Evidently the Times and the Climate Impacts Lab don’t want to deal with folks older than 58.
For Huntsville and Montgomery, here are their results – kind of scary. It appears that the number of 90°F days has risen to their highest levels ever. I’m told that in 1960 Huntsville had about 45 days above 90°F but by 2017 it was 57 days and rising.
Then, to make matters even scarier, they use climate model projections to 2090 to tell me that when I’m “80” in 2040, there will be 73 such hot days in Huntsville as seen below. Yikes!
Before you sell your house and move to Canada, let’s take a look at the real story. Having built many climate datasets of Alabama, some starting as early as 1850, I knew the Times story was designed to create alarm and promote the claim that humans who use carbon-based energy (gasoline, natural gas, coal) to help them live better lives are making our summers ever more miserable. Be aware reader, this webtool is not designed to provide accurate information.
First of all, climate data for Alabama began in the 19th century, not 1960. In 2016 Dr. Richard McNider (Alabama’s former State Climatologist) and I published a carefully constructed time series of summer temperatures for the state starting from 1883 that utilized numerous station records, some that even the federal government had not archived into its databases (which is the most common source for outfits like the Climate Impacts Lab.) I’ve updated that work to include summer temperatures through 2018 – the result is below. Not only are summer daytime temperatures not rising, they have actually fallen over the last 136 years. Hmmm … after looking at the graph, why do you suppose the Climate Impacts Lab decided to start their charts in 1960?
We went a step further in that paper and demonstrated that climate models failed completely to replicate the downward temperature trend in Alabama over the past 120 years – 76 different models with a 100% failure rate. Would you trust these same models to tell you about the future as the Times does? Why did they not check the models for validity?
Now, what about the number of “hot” (or in Alabama we would say “typical”) 90°F days? For Alabama and the nation, I’ve calculated the average value per station each year since 1895. The results below speak for themselves (there is no increase of days hotter than 90°F) and expose the misinformation provided through the Times.
Providing accurate information on Alabama’s climate is what we do in our office. In fact, using real data, I can’t even come close to reproducing the images that the Climate Impacts Lab did which show 2010’s as having the most 90°F days in Alabama – I’m guessing they are using some theoretical output rather than sticking with observations. Notice how smooth their graph is compared to real data – it doesn’t look real to me. I’ll check and follow-up as I can, but something is fishy.
This is a great state in which people can enjoy life and in which businesses can operate – and our climate resources are one of the reasons we are doing so well in recruitment. Occasionally though the time comes when I must address claims made by those whose intention is not to inform but to promote false alarm – this usually happens when an environmental pressure group generates a press release whose dramatic statements are published by a willing media (without any fact-checking.) This is one of those times, and I’m sure it will not be the last.
Citation:
Christy, J.R. and R.T. McNider, 2016: Time series construction of summer surface temperatures for Alabama, 1883-2014, and comparisons with tropospheric temperature and climate model simulations. J. Applied Meteor. Climatology, DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0287.1.
Data from the New York Times website accessed on 5 and 6 September, 2018.
– John Christy
The Alabama State Climatologist
NYT? ‘Nuff said.
Thank you Dr. Christy.
Dr Christy,
I thought, initially, that maybe you were using raw data and the Climate Impact Labs were using homogenized, adjusted, corrected data. But then, in your last chart, I see that you used USHCN data. Wonder where the Labs folks got their data. And even their data shows the cooling through the 60’s and early 70’s.
Thanks for writing this article. Now, how can it be gotten out to all the folks who read and believe the NYT?
Good luck on getting the NYT to retract the tool or even consider they may be using incorrect data.
Maybe someone can come up with an interactive tool that calculates how many NYT articles were non factual since you were born. I’m guessing that trend would match their 90 deg day trend.
Lies of omission are perhaps the most important tool of all to the corrupt mainstream media in furthering their agenda.
Nothing stimulates like a good scary story. Children sleep under covers to fortify against the monster in the closet then grow up and buy electric cars.
Another good article demonstrating the nefariousness of tuning data to expectations.
I don’t understand why alarmists consistently expect insignificant trends to continue forever at the same, or even an accelerated, rate. The evidence is overwhelming that the climate has many explained and unexplained periodic and quasi-periodic influences that manifest as short term trends (short term being less than about a century). The nonsense applied is fundamentally no different than extrapolating the rise in N hemisphere temperatures between March and June to determine the expected temperature in December or extrapolating the temperature change from 9AM to noon in order to establish what the temperature at midnight will be.
Classic example of how to use cut-off graphs.
why do you suppose the Climate Impacts Lab decided to start their charts in 1960?…..
because it catches the full rise of the AMO
I ran Eugene, Oregon (close to my hometown). It gets hot in Eugene in the summer. I remember many days in the 60s that were well above 100 deg. The NYT database is obviously FUBAR as it shows fewer than 10 days above 90 deg
Dr. Christy, just so we’re comparing Red Delicious to Red Delicious, could you graph the results for just Montgomery and Huntsville? Before Nick Stokes or Steve Mosher get on your case.
Dr. Christy
Montana has created a climate prediction site (http://montanaclimate.org/) that uses one of the numerous models available. They break Montana into several regions and, using the model info, predict every aspect of the changing climate so we can plan our towns, forests, and agriculture. My comments to them about the lack of skill in the model they chose for continental scale changes should be enough to prove the unreliability of these predictions. In my opinion this production is worse than a waste of taxpayer money as it gives the impression that it is an accurate prediction.
Do you have any way to influence other states to act reasonably on this sort of activity?
Much of the problem is not what the NYT doesn’t know. Rather, it is the much that they know that ain’t so.
Thanks, Reagan.
PS. When Reagan was elected I was young and wondering why Reagan won though media clearly told he was inferior. Learning my mistake took a long time.
Am I reading that projection right, that there will be more 90 degree summer days in the future than there are days in the summer?
Please tell me how CO2 can cause a record high temperature? Incoming radiation is needed for record high temperatures. CO2 only traps outgoing LWIR, which is irrelevant during the day where incoming warming visible radiation dominates. Record high daytime temperatures is evidence more warming radiation is reaching the earth’s surface, and rules out CO2 as the cause. Once again, how could the GHG Effect, that thermalizes outgoing radiation, even cause a record high temperature? Can the GHG Effect ever warm the atmosphere higher than the radiating body? Once again, record high temperatures by definition require additional radiation to be added to the system. CO2 doesn’t add additional energy. It simply converts LWIR into thermal radiation.
Quantum Physics 101; Why CO2 Can’t be Melting the Glaciers and Sea Ice
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/09/10/quantum-physics-101-why-co2-cant-be-melting-the-glaciers-and-sea-ice/
For Alabama, it’s more than just the meteorological summer, the trend for the warm six months of the year May through October, according to NOAA’s Climate at a Glance, shows cooling:
That’s true for quite a few of the states east of the Rockies:
Sorry if this is too far off topic, but can anybody explain to me why it seems that nobody is accusing the NY Times of fabricating the anonymous op ed that was supposed to have been written by a senior Trump administration official?
The NY Times has so little credibility with me that I immediately assumed that it was a hoax and will only believe otherwise when an actual senior administration official admits to being the author.
Quite a good exposure over here:
Conway NH had one 90° day in 1960 and one in 2017. From this they project 7 days by 2089.
Well done for speaking up for Alabama, Dr Christy.
A bit of perspective: Though born in the NE USA I mostly grew up in the UK. When studying for my PhD in Seattle WA, my supervisor changed locations to South Carolina. I was too close to graduation for it to make sense in following him there. But I recall the reaction of my fellow (American) students who were not from the South East: They were horrified at the prospect. Disgusted, and almost frightened, it seemed.
Some years later I rejoined my supervisor again for a while in SC. Sure, it was unpleasantly hot and insecty in summer by British standards, but I failed to see why other ‘Northern’ Americans thought of it and the people as being barbaric. I suspect Alabama is regarded the same way, or worse.
“Why did they not check the models for validity?”
Because that’s how science works, always checking at least twice to remove any likelihood of major errors! 😉
As an engineer I use analysis software all the time, but I only know it’s correct because I can do the calculations by hand in the first instance, & I always tell graduates not to wholly rely upon computer output unless you can check it by hand at some point! Believe it or not, some well known analysis packages contain fundamental errors!!!!! Great post anyway!
Don’t worry, I’m not thinking of moving to Canada. I’ve read the family history of a family member that was promised farm land in Canada in return for providing service as a Loyalist during the American Revolution. That family member went on to claim the land only to find out it was a rock outcrop surrounded by bog.
Don’t move to Canada, we have Trudeau 2.0!
In this article I post a link to, there is a tool that can be used for detecting health scams.
Hum seems it can be useful for not just health scams
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/miracle-cure-or-major-con-ubc-researchers-break-down-329-likely-health-scams-1.4819225?cmp=rss
I noted a cool summer this year with winter-like fronts in the central U.S. much like the cool summer of 2009 during that solar minimum.
Statistical ju jitsu. That explains MOST of the climate change hysteria. Don’t fall for it. RESIST the opponents leverage.