From the “garbage in, doomsday out” department.
Apocalypse by 2040? Shock as MIT computer model predicts END DATE for civilisation
An apocalyptic computer model, processed by one of the world’s largest computers in 1973, has predicted the end of civilization by 2040.
The prediction came from a programme nicknamed World One, which was developed by a team of MIT researchers and processed by Australia’s largest computer.
It was originally devised by computer pioneer Jay Forrester, after he was tasked by the Club of Rome to develop a model of global sustainability.
However, the shocking result of the computer calculations showed that the level of pollution and population would cause a global collapse by 2040.
This shows that the world cannot sustain the current level of population and industrial growth for more than two decades.
Australian broadcaster ABC has republished its original report from the 1970s, since there is just two years until a major change is expected according to the computer model.
The model based its predictions on trends such as pollution levels, population growth, availability of natural resources and quality of life on earth.
The eerie calculation has been remarkably accurate in certain predictions, such as a stagnated quality of life and diminishing pool of natural resources.
A fascinating forecast shows that the quality of life is expected to drop dramatically right after 2020.
At this time the broadcasters addreses the audience: “At around 2020, the condition of the planet becomes highly critical.
“If we do nothing about it, the quality of life goes down to zero. Pollution becomes so seriously it will start to kill people, which in turn will cause the population to diminish, lower than it was in the 1900.
“At this stage, around 2040 to 2050, civilised life as we know it on this planet will cease to exist.”
Source: Express UK
I guess the largest computer in Australia is a PDP-8…
One would think that after many failed 20-year doomsday predictions since the 1960s, they would at least try to not look like fools.
Newtonian physics, and the philosophical ideas of determinism derived from it, should have died with the acceptance of relativity, and should have been buried in the deepest of holes forever with the revelations of quantum physics. But no. Inflated egos continue to cling to simple linear projections of trends that are poorly measured and entirely misunderstood, in the hopes that they will be seen as important!
This story is pathetic. The idea behind it is pathetic. Yet, this pathetic idea that we can make accurate, linear projections of poorly measured and poorly understood, complex, coupled, non-linear systems lives strongly in those ignorant fools who wish to control the masses with their pessimistic determinism.
In 1995 Thomas Sowell identified these types in his book: The Vision of the Anointed: “The Vision of the Anointed is a book by economist and political columnist Thomas Sowell which brands the anointed as promoters of a worldview concocted out of fantasy impervious to any real-world considerations.”
Indeed! These people are impervious to the real-world. Their fantasies are derived by making simple linear projections of things that they have not begun to understand. The simple and obvious fact that the predictions of the archaic computer model from 1973 are grossly wrong in every aspect, somehow still slips their awareness. Likewise, the simple and obvious fact that the climate models (largely a more sophisticated version of the 1973 joke) have no skill, also slips their grasp.
This ‘imperviousness to any real-world considerations’ does not appear to be a function of low IQ, but the result of an over-inflated sense of self-importance! Indeed, the Anointed are generally educated and boast a moderately above average IQ, which only seems to bolster their delusions of self-importance even more.
it is said that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. I would like to put that idea on steroids and say that there is nothing more dangerous than an intelligent, well-educated fool! You will find them clustering, like parasites, in the halls of government agencies, higher education and media centers. They are unified by the belief that everyone outside of their click is a moron, and deserves to be exploited, for their own good, of course!
Just like the inanities of Malthus — reduce life to simple arithmetic equations and calculation doom to 10 decimal places were inaccurate — so the same here.
Some of us realize that life in it’s many forms is, and has always been, ahead of the game when it comes to such simplistic reductionist ideas. Our world is an organized jumble of semi-stable chaotic states, that is what history shows us. It is not the simplistic straight line trends that over-educated imbeciles proffer.
Mayan calendars are fun to make and you only need to point out the end point was meaningless to begin with but only when you get near the much publicized end.
Is this how Al Gore and Richard Branson negotiated great real estate deals on breach front and island retreats?
“Australian broadcaster ABC has republished its original report from the 1970s, since there is just two years until a major change is expected according to the computer model.”
Let me guess – Trump gets elected to a 2nd term. Oh wait, that wouldn’t be a change, just more winning. Oops.
Computer programs can generate almost any scenario you want. Here’s a simple one which predicts an even earlier doom:
print “The world will end in 2022”
It may need some embellishments and parenthesis to fit in your favorite computer language.
Back in grad school we played with this model. It is so simple and full of absurd conclusions. You can make it do anything. It just extrapolates all trends that were in play in the 1970s, like runaway population growth and rising pollution and no agricultural revolution and no new oil discoveries yada yada. Absurd.
They must have watched the movie; 2036 Origin Unknown; just released this AM on Redbox. LOL
They must have watched the ‘B’ movie; “2036 Origin Unknown”; that was released by Red Box this AM. LOL
The Club of Rome [doesn’t] know what a mineral is.
In some areas of New York and California, civilized life has already ceased to exist. Only the uncivil are left.
So, what do newer models predict?
This rerun of a Climte…er…Computer Model (Did they have to burn incense and have a blue light in the corner to make it work?) promotes only one message: “Eat, Drink and Make Mary for Tomorrow We Die!” (But first, vote for a carbon tax.)
Damn, I only just finished unpacking my suitcase from the last end of the world scare. I think this time I’ll just stock up with cans of baked beans and beer and sit it out.
“MIT computer model” was it ever V & V? ” It was originally devised by computer pioneer Jay Forrester, after he was tasked by the Club of Rome to develop a model of global sustainability.” I’ve read about the Club of Rome, they have always believed the earth is over populated but only the “elites” should rule and the rest should become serfs or “slaves”, take your pick.
En el 2.040 serán 9000 millones de personas en el planeta,la POBREZA Y EL HAMBRE serán mayores. La contaminación atmosférica por la quema de combustibles fósiles matara a mucha gente.La CONTAMINACIÓN de los mares y océanos por la basura radioactiva y la pesca exagerada afecta a todos. La deforestacion,las guerras, el terrorismo, los GOBIERNOS INOPERANTES,CORRUPTOS,MENTIROSOS,LADRONES,DESPILFARRADORES están acabando con este hermoso planeta. Si no cambiamos,si no ponemos ORDEN se va a cumplir lo que predice la computadora.Es necesario SOLUCIONES.
On the MIT story. First, it was run in 1973. The largest computer then was not as powerful as the hottest desktop you can build for gaming today. They call it an apocalyptic model, then backtrack and say it’s a sustainability model. So which is it? Is the model set up to give an apocalyptic outcome based on worst case assumptions or was this actually an unexpected outcome. If the model was based on Erlich’s assumptions in the 70’s then I’m surprised it didn’t come up with an earlier date.
What they DON’T talk about is all the failed predictions from the model. Just another example of MSM alarmism.
To me this isn’t news, but more a point of humor.
Club Of Rome is all they had to say. Moving on.
I told you we were doomed.