From the “garbage in, doomsday out” department.
Apocalypse by 2040? Shock as MIT computer model predicts END DATE for civilisation
An apocalyptic computer model, processed by one of the world’s largest computers in 1973, has predicted the end of civilization by 2040.
The prediction came from a programme nicknamed World One, which was developed by a team of MIT researchers and processed by Australia’s largest computer.
It was originally devised by computer pioneer Jay Forrester, after he was tasked by the Club of Rome to develop a model of global sustainability.
However, the shocking result of the computer calculations showed that the level of pollution and population would cause a global collapse by 2040.
This shows that the world cannot sustain the current level of population and industrial growth for more than two decades.
Australian broadcaster ABC has republished its original report from the 1970s, since there is just two years until a major change is expected according to the computer model.
The model based its predictions on trends such as pollution levels, population growth, availability of natural resources and quality of life on earth.
The eerie calculation has been remarkably accurate in certain predictions, such as a stagnated quality of life and diminishing pool of natural resources.
A fascinating forecast shows that the quality of life is expected to drop dramatically right after 2020.
At this time the broadcasters addreses the audience: “At around 2020, the condition of the planet becomes highly critical.
“If we do nothing about it, the quality of life goes down to zero. Pollution becomes so seriously it will start to kill people, which in turn will cause the population to diminish, lower than it was in the 1900.
“At this stage, around 2040 to 2050, civilised life as we know it on this planet will cease to exist.”
Source: Express UK
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The world will die of massive brain death before then, because all semblance of standards of excellence will have been abandoned, causing people of Earth to crash into one another, mindlessly trying to satisfy their reflexive desire to glue to their mobile devices, to stay connected in their now totally meaningless lives, causing a cascade of accidents that will wipe out much of the human population.
The metaphor for this syndrome was already named in the 70ies. It was called ‘the Borg Collective’.
The ‘Borg’ did not appear until the late 90’s early 2000s.
Maybe he’s thinking of the original series. Which of course did not have the Borg.
The movie ‘Idiocracy’ was prophetic..
I never could finish that movie. When I got to the part where the main character was sitting in the theater watching the “butts” movie, I felt just like he did: this is too stupid and vapid and be funny. Why am I watching this? It was at this point I realized the movie was trolling its own viewers and was saying “only idiots would watch the rest of this movie”.
Golgafrinchans:
http://hitchhikers.wikia.com/wiki/Golgafrinchan_(race)
Well, you make one fundamental mistake, EVERYONE is not glued to their phones since EVERYONE doesn’t have one.
OK, one more, only the media is projecting that “all semblance of standards of excellence…have been abandoned.” Humans will always strive for more.
“All progress is based upon a universal innate desire on the part of every organism to live beyond its income”― Samuel Butler, The Way of All Flesh
Oh my, less time remaining than we thought. See what happens when you don’t believe.
The good news is that my retirement funds are guaranteed not to run out now!
But statistically my retirement will. Present age plus 22 years equals more than the expected life span.
My state pension age has been postponed twice – to 2020.
I thought it was someone said “no pressure”, pushed a big red button, and you exploded in a shower of blood….
Well, but this is really good news. It means that there is no point in my replacing my 2003 Compaq Presario computer after all, because everything including electronic communications will just go POOF!, doesn’t it?
I’ll just put more money into some wines that I like, dress like a permanent inhabitant of the Renaissance Faires, and finish up with those stories I’ve been working on for so long.
I love those doomsday stories. I keep hoping that the purveyors of that nonsense will take it on themselves to vacate the planet so that the rest of us can just get on with our lives.
Cheers!
Is it ‘unprecedented’?
This is from 1973 and they are just now getting excited about it? Send these loons hair shirts and sandwich boards emblazoned with “The End Is Nigh!” The only way our quality of life will go down is if people listen to all these ecotards.
Or else it a Harold Camping model predicting the day of the Rapture. Even Camping gave up after so many misses.
Well, why not have both? Let’s just be inclusive about it, eh?
Oh, I didn’t see anything about where this is supposed to happen. Is there a particular spot where it starts and then cascades, or does everything just go POOF! all at once?
I like to have clarity on this kind of thing.
“… processed by one of the world’s largest computers in 1973…”
In other words, something significantly less powerful than a five-year-old smartphone… just to put things in perspective. Think maybe they simplified the models a bit?
” Think maybe they simplified the models a bit?”
——————–
A 1973 doomsday model on a 1973 supercomputer is just less precisely false than a state of the art doomsday model.
And no accounting for the technology and biological breakthroughs since 1973? This line of thinking supports the notion that we are just idle blobs awaiting our fates…..
typical of aunty abc in aus to latch onto such drivel too;-(
it’s embarrassing to a high degree, really it is!
guess i know what r williams will be running on the NOT very Science show very soon
presently being screwed over yet again by the NEG power deal being done TO us not for us
“TO us not for us”
Like all socialist green policies.
If indeed this computer model was at the behest of the Club of Rome and modeled from their paradigms, then if nothing else this should demonstrate that the Club of Rome has no clue how to model sustainability and their credibility is junk.
If their plan for the future ends civilization in 2040 in a mere 70 years, then its not much of a plan.
Club of Rome gave us all sorts of Globalists stuff – including pushing the AGW meme. Read their own words here:
http://green-agenda.com
Their statements are less than worthless – whatever they are saying, the opposite should be done. Fortunately the Italian Lega Nord are now in charge of Rome (thanks to the Italians who are now woke for real after being invaded).
So should I sell my boat and motorcycle???????/
william Johnston
Yep, I’ll give you ten bucks for both.
🙂
The question was “should I”. I think I will go out for salmon or walleye later this week so the boat is on hold.
william Johnston
Tight lines.
You’ll need them to get away from the zombies.
No. Keep them, and increase your inventory when people want you to take theirs off their hands.
Motorcycle yes, boat no.
Well it’s a computer model from MIT so it must be right.
Why haven’t any computer models been able to predict what has actually happened since, say, the 1960s or so? The world has gotten better overall, people are richer, people are largely more free, fewer as a percent are killed by disease and starvation and even natural disasters, the environment is cleaner – especially in the “developed” world – than ever before in history.
All of the Man-made calamities mostly come from oppressive, tyrannical governments.
MIT= “Missing Intelligence Team”, … in this case. Otherwise, I used to have respect for stuff that came out of there.
Not Chicken Little sez:
“Well it’s a computer model from MIT so it must be right.”
It’s not right. It’s wrong!
I have been studying this problem
since the 1970’s, and my model,
which is so complex I can barely
understand it, but it was peer reviewed,
and the peers were so excited
they said “what the he-ll is this?”,
which of course was just their jealousy,
but getting to my point, and I do have one,
the world will end in 2039, not 2040 —
those MIT nerds have no idea what they
are talking about.
“All of the Man-made calamities mostly come from oppressive, tyrannical governments.”
Yes, that’s true. And this did not seem to be addressed in this computer program.
Big wars are the big danger in the future. If we can manage to avoid big wars, I think we will manage to avoid the other human-caused scenarios.
“The eerie calculation has been remarkably accurate in certain predictions, such as a stagnated quality of life and diminishing pool of natural resources.”
What planet is this writer from?
California? Quality of life has dropped:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/03/01/california-ranks-last-quality-life-new-report/384853002/
And Governor Moonbeam did just diminish our natural resources:
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/31/california-drought-jerry-brown-sets-permanent-water-conservation-rules-with-new-laws/
Well, what do you expect from the People’s Democratic Republic of Kalifornia?
He’s probably from planet Ragnarok, trying to sell his books here because no one will read them where he comes from, without laughing themselves into hysterics.
Well he’s sorta right about the quality of life stagnating. We’ve fixed all the quality-of-life problems that previous generations had, and now we’re stagnating until we crack immortality or something 🙂
I expect to be around by that time, then we’ll see. I predict massive fail
All gone by 2050? Okay then all the alarmists can keep on consuming, business as usual, phones, cars, power, flying, heating, cooling, but just remember it is still the den!ers faults, somehow.
Club of Rome were/are Malthusians so it should not be surprising that a program devised for them should give Malthusian results.
Yeah, but won’t they all be dead by that deadline?
Does this mean Arctic summer sea ice will actually melt altogether this time?
Too late. Al Gore predicted all ice melt by 2014.
In 1973 they were probably worried about too MUCH sea ice, and a return to a glaciation.
Yes, it was chilly back then!
The stagnant quality of life has more to do with politics than anything else.
Did it also predict anything useful?
The truth is that in 1973 the world was a turning into a real shit hole. So extrapolating from that it was probably an accurate estimation. But once again, inanimate objects do not and cannot understand human resolve and resourcefulness. I guess that goes for progressives too.
Personally I prefer the Doomsday Clock, requires zero electricity, easier to adjust (just two fingers) and changes are instantaneously reflected in real time with zero floating point error. Puts that MIT supercomputer algorithm to shame and just a few decades too late…….what a bunch of amateurs.
Except you only ever hear of it going forward, yet it must go back sometimes.
It HAS been moved back – most recently in 2010
“Making Good Time: Doomsday Clock Moves 1 Minute Back to 6 from Midnight
Obama’s plans to end nukes and curb climate change raise cautious optimism”
I leave you to draw your own conclusions.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/doomsday-clock-measured-optimism/
It moved back when the Soviet Union collapsed.
My point was that when it does go back, it doesn’t get the publicity it does when it goes forward, at least as far as the UK is concerned, on the BBC.
I think you mean just one finger to adjust it. I leave it to you to guess which finger the adjusters are using.
“At this stage, around 2040 to 2050, civilised life as we know it on this planet will cease to exist.”
Good. I’m tired of most people anyway.
No more traffic jams! Woohoo!
I’m actually grateful to see this. The next time I have a discussion with someone who believes the global climate models, I’ll throw this at them.
I’m actually happy with the fact that civilized life as we know it ceased to exist from the 70’s. We are much better off now.
This model is a bit less apocalyptic than the first Club of Rome computer study, so that is why it has stayed on the shelf since 1973. The original Cof R study would have us all dead already.
There must have been a wire warp on the “Dooms Day” pins on the main CPU board.
Damn! I mean wire wrap…as that was common repair/fix/upgrade in computers of the time.
And this is what I meant;
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=ibm+circuit+board+computer+wire+wrap&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=ZpNLmtki62oeQM%253A%252Cp179G6g5G1noJM%252C_&usg=AFrqEzc3uLazOlnc_GFG_sxx5s3cDBO3XA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjR0r-S5uvcAhUBE4gKHb79CKUQ9QEwBHoECAUQDA#imgrc=ZpNLmtki62oeQM:
OMG! flying leads to sort out missing track where i worked were bad n ugly enough
that is gross!
damned miracle anythin did work at all
makes me appreciate a decent printed board all the more
even though i still hate the smell of phenolic ones
and track repair on them is an utter pain its still better than that
That brings back memories.
None of them good.
Note to UK Express:
Stop allowing non-native English speakers to write copy for your English-speaking audiences. That story is damn near unreadable. It must be “interpreted” by what one thinks a non-native speaker is trying to communicate.
Absolutely appalling.
It is the Express after all, so you can’t really expect great literature. Couple of lines I had to read twice, but that’s normal with journalese these days. Relax.
shows what you know- this won award for finest Vogon Romantic Literature.
Would have received a special commendation from Zaphod Beeblebrox, too, had it included a few paragraphs on Diana.
I expected someone to remark how the MIT computer model finally spit out “42”.
2042
I find Sir Isaac Newton’s 1704 prediction of Apocalypse in 2060 more convincing.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/the-world-will-end-in-2060-according-to-newton-7254673.html
So he predicted it to shut up the Chicken Littles of his day. Hmm, how could we apply this lesson today? Oh I know, just pay Bill Nye enough to come out and predict the world will end in 3060.
The end is Nye.
If Sir Isaac had predicted the fall of the Holy Roman Empire 1006 years after its founding, ie 102 years in his future, I’d be even more impressed.
This can be used as a prize example of “Garbage In = Garbage Out” in computer science.
A computer model is a type of “game” built around math and statistics. Most computer programmers do not understand statistics…in fact I can honestly say most computer programmers do not understand how to program very well – they hack at a piece of code until it “appears” to do whatever it is they thought it should do and move on. It is rare to find a programmer who is careful and reasoned in their programming and especially in their testing.
Combine this with people who pretend to understand very complex systems and you get such monstrosities as Climate Models. So a model of humanity and sustainability would be even harder, because not only is it complex with many unknown constants (how much resource X do we have?) and variables (how fast will we use it in the future?) but it ALSO has to contend with people who can decide to behave differently, impacting many of the variables (how fast were we using that resource X again?).
But how do you test a model that predicts things that haven’t happened? You study the trends obviously. This model has FAILED, the trends demonstrate it.
By the way, if it can’t be known (at the time you run your model), then you are entering guesses (another name for garbage) into your model. It doesn’t even matter if your model correctly predicts one thing – that can be a coincidence. It has to be right all (or at least most) of the time to be of any use. So making a single prediction is, well, a waste of time.
I wish there was a +100 button, because I would have used it on this reply. You are absolutely correct.
“remarkably accurate in certain predictions, such as a stagnated quality of life and diminishing pool of natural resources.”
Substitute, ‘repeatedly disproved predictions, such as …’
Julian Simon got it right in 1980 (213 kb pdf here).
There is no crisis in resources, in population, or in pollution. This has been known for 40 years, now, and still the press gets it 100% wrong.
It’s doom-porn and they’re addicted to it. For the children, no doubt.
LOL @ur momisugly Pat Frnak…….I suspect you are well into your second six pack of beer, seeing that you cannot even type your own name properly.
A comment marking the nether limit of your acuity, Robert.
Let’s also note that you didn’t spell my name correctly either, Robert, even though you were paying attention and trying for jape.
Jape? I thought perhaps it was snrak…. };>)
“The eerie calculation has been remarkably accurate in certain predictions, such as a stagnated quality of life and diminishing pool of natural resources.”..my quality of life has vastly improved and keeps on improving….MAGA
It predicted fracking, GMO’s, and genetic engineering……….it also predicted the pause
“…my quality of life has vastly improved and keeps on improving…”
Ditto here, Latitude.
Born in a house with no in-door plumbing; heated by a pot bellied stove. 62+ years later I’m in a 4-bedroom ranch property with pool and property. That back-water where I was born: Lake Oswego, Oregon, a posh upscale urban paradise. Whatever these wiseguys are talking about it doesn’t describe me, doesn’t describe my surroundings, and doesn’t describe any reality I know of. I’m not the only one:
https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty
According to all statistics, outside of certain socialist/communist hell-holes, the quality of life for just about everyone has gone up by huge amounts.
The proven reserves of just about every resource is greater now than it was in the 70’s as well.
PS: If we should ever start to run low on any type of metal, or paper, or plastic, we’ll just mine today’s waste dumps.
Is, the “Club Of Rome” really concerned about ALL mankind? Could they instead really be an organization funded and/or created (one of many I believe) by the rich who are concerned that if the world goes crap, they and their future family members won’t be able to enjoy all of their immense wealth?
From readings and reports from organizations such such as the Club Of Rome, they call for global government and global control of resources, arms, and population. That to me sounds like something rich people would prefer so that the world is tightly policed and hence, safe and protected from any global catastrophic issues that could cause them to not enjoy their vast wealth.
So, maybe having rich people around IS a good thing for mankind?
They do after all, don’t have to worry about the ‘small’ things that us average folk worry about such as food, shelter, jobs, healthcare, etc. So either they are really are smarter than us which would explain their wealth and far-sighted thinking for all of mankind and/or they have time to think about the BIG things that really matter that just aren’t on our radar.
In my opinion, I think the rich mainly care about preserving the world so that they and their future families don’t lose out on all of the wealth that they’ve accumulated.
I’ve been saying for decades that the biggest reason why these guys want restrict if not end air travel for the masses, is because it will reduce the crowds at the best vacation spots.
That thought has crossed my mind as well but not as the biggest reason.
And don’t forget, less pesky air travelers flying means less demand for jet fuel which means lower prices for jet fuel for their private jets…
Bet they’d love to be able to drive to airports on streets with few cars, then go to sparsely populated airports with their private jets fueled up with cheap jet fuel. It’d be a win-win-win for these ‘important’ leftist people.
Counterintuitively the price of fuel would go up if they were producing less, and transporting less (to fewer locations). The fixed costs would remain about the same but production would be far lower thereby increasing the per-unit costs. Running large refineries at below optimal level is more expensive as well.
One of the basic assumptions built into the computer modes was that Progressives would be in charge – WHOOPS!
Some interesting excerpts from a 1974 NYTimes article on another report to the Club of Rome:
“A planned world economy whose sectors would be assigned complementary roles was proposed today in an international study as the most effective way to avert a breakdown in global stability.
The study calls for such drastic measures as annual investments of $250- billion by the industrialized nations to help the poor countries become economically self-sufficient.”
Wow, 250 billion a year in 1974 is 1,277,920,892,494.93 in today’s inflation adjusted dollars (if I used the right calculator…)
““The Limits to Growth,” that was criticized in some quarters as being oversimplified and placing too much emphasis on “doomsday” predictions.
The new project is critical of the earlier one. It calls for “organic” growth, rather than halt to growth that, in the words of its co-leader, Dr. Mihajlo Mesarovic, would “institutionalize inequalities.”
“Organic” growth of the world economy would be controlled much like the growth of a body.”
““Now is the time to draw up a master plan for organic, sustainable growth and world development based on global allocation of all finite resources and a new global economic system.”
“To bring the world into stable equilibrium, the report says, will require a basic reorientation of the world economy. The “preposterous waste” of material resources by the most advanced nations will have to be curtailed, it says.
“Our frivolous use of energy,” it adds, “takes food from the mouths of children.”
“The reasoning is that this would stimulate continued over-consumption of oil and delay the development of alternate energy sources until the Middle East fields were running dry, in about 2010. ”
Opps, another environmental prediction a little off…
“The world, it said, must shed the “futility of narrow nationalism.””
source:
https://www.nytimes.com/1974/10/10/archives/study-says-developing-nations-must-get-extensive-aid-report.html
Gee, who knew that all the developing nations needed was capitalism?
Uncle Milty Friedman, for one.
They reason they want to develop undeveloped countries is this: Fertility rates are lower in developed countries. (WOuldn’t be surprised if they also want to “capitalize’ on the transformations of these economies during the process).
Main thing though (from my interpretations of what I’ve read) is they want to lower the population growth in LDCs.
Simply put, if you have women working instead of staying home, you have less babies being born. This fact is why I believe that there has been) and is to this day, so much focus on getting women into the workplace in developed countries and in the emerging economies of the LDCs. They want women working NOT because of equal human rights or feminism, they want them working so that their baby factories are on hiatus.