From the UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL and the “missed solutions that don’t fit the narrative” department
Adhering to Paris Agreement climate goal could significantly decrease heat-related summer deaths
The paper, published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change, demonstrates that, all else being equal, mortality due to high temperatures could be significantly reduced (15-22 per cent per summer) in London and Paris if we stabilise climate at the lower of the Paris Climate Goals, 1.5°C, as compared with the higher temperature goal.
In London, currently around 10 per cent of summers are free of any heat-related mortality, but this research has shown that under potential future climate change virtually all summers will have some heat-related mortality.
Researchers from Bristol who lead the HAPPI project (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts Model Intercomparison Project) simulated future climate under climate goals consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C global warming Paris Agreement climate goals. The project utilised researchers and citizen scientists from around the world to help run the experiments.
Dr Dann Mitchell, lead author of the study, and a lecturer in climate physics at the University of Bristol, said “Our results show a clear increase in heat-related mortality which can be avoided by adhering to the Paris Agreement goals.
“Together with the recent publication of a wealth of evidence presented for climate drivers of other impact sectors (such as the crop sector), it is becoming evermore clear as to how crucial these climate goals are.
“We need to understand the magnitude of these health impacts, so we can plan suitable adaptation strategies to prevent them.”
The research comes at a time where much of Europe is undergoing a heatwave, and the public are being advised to take care and check more regularly on vulnerable relatives and friends.
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The research was carried out in collaboration with researchers at Public Health England, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University, the University of Washington, The European Centre for Environment and Human Health, ETH Zurich, and the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Tsukuba, Japan.
Deaths can also be reduced by lowering electricity prices, especially for the poor and elderly, so that air conditioning can be used. Often people in these low-income demographics have to make a choice between fuel and food, as illustrated in the UK during the winter. The same holds true for the summer.
But, that doesn’t fit the narrative, so is excluded as a solution by these climate campaigners with tunnel vision who’d rather focus on cute but useless programs named “HAPPI”.
“…Counterpoint: so would cheap electricity and air condintioning
Mods can you please fix?
It’s supposed to be 110F (Heat Index) today in my neck of the woods. It’s no problem because I have the air conditioner going. 🙂
So would one be correct in assuming that this ‘study’ reports the results of model simulations based on quack-medical models which assume summer mortality and average temperature are linearly proportional and which use temperature inputs generated by climastrology models which assume future temperature is linearly proportional to atmospheric [CO2] which in turn are using hypothetical emission scenarios?
Or put another way it’s a guess based on a guess that in turn depends on a guess derived from a guess that depends on one of three guesses?
…yeah, I thought so.
The only worry I have after reading of this feeble excuse for research is that taxes were squandered paying for it.
I also assume that ‘citizen scientists from around the world’ means naive students in the third world were duped into doing the leg-work for free (he postulated knowingly).
Odd, but a quick perusal of uk daily-death data suggests there has been no obvious change during the period 1970 to 2014. Perhaps the supposed increasing deaths from heat are balanced by decreasing deaths from cold? Just when is this tragedy to begin?
You have to laugh – heat waves in London?? It’s 42 years since the country enjoyed – though some say endured – the hottest summer in more than 350 years of records. In 1976 the Central England Temperature (CET) between June and August averaged 17.8C. According to the Met Office, the average maximum temperature was 20.96C. The hottest period occurred between June 23, 1976 and July 7, when for 15 consecutive days the temperature topped 32C (90F) every day at one or more stations in England.
Perhaps they need to take a holiday to some of the really hot places on earth.
Death Valley, California, USA
This currently holds the record for hottest air temperature ever recorded. The desert valley reached highs of 56.7 degrees in the summer of 1913, which would apparently push the limits of human survival. Average temperatures today reach 47 degrees during summer.
Aziziyah, Libya
The former capital of the Jafara district, 25 miles south of Tripoli, used to claim the title of hottest place on earth – in 1922 the temperature was recorded as a sweltering 58 degrees. However, it was stripped of its title in 2012 when meteorologists declared this invalid due to a number of factors, including the fact that the person who recorded it was inexperienced. However, the town still regularly experiences temperatures of over 48 degrees in midsummer.
During the year, there is virtually no rainfall in Wadi Halfa, a sweltering city located on the shores of Lake Nubia in Sudan. June is the hottest month, with average temperature highs of 41 degrees – the hottest temperature ever recorded there was 53 degrees in April 1967.
I remember the 1976 summer and it is still talked about today. There was a hot summer in the mid 80’s but for the most part, from my recollection up to 1995, summers in England were cool and wet. More people, thousands in fact, die in England from cold every year. 1 or 2 degrees C warmer won’t change that one bit.
It ain’t the heat it’s the HUMIDITY!! Declare water vapor (yes, and clouds) to be POLLUTANTS!!
The climate campaigners (champagners?) not only are vexed with tunnel vision, they are confined to circular thinking patterns due to religious indoctrination by those they regard as prophets and seers of the future.
Conditioning
you have an out of place extra N in the header
ZOMG, it’s 92.5 (or 93) instead of 91!!!!!!!! We’re doooooooooooomed!!!!!! or something.
These people. Really need the ability to put a facepalm gif here.